With Dirt, Keeneland Reaching for the Breeders' Cup Stars

Hello old friend.

With its return to dirt racing this fall, Keeneland hopes to hear that greeting--cue Eric Clapton--from more horsemen interested in prepping their top starters for main-track races in this year’s Breeders’ Cup World Championships.

When Keeneland after this year’s spring meet removed a remarkably safe Polytrack that also saw handle records fall during its use at a time when many tracks were struggling through wagering declines, one of the main explanations was a desire to draw more top horses for its top races. In the spring, that means more top Triple Crown horses in the Toyota Blue Grass (gr. I) and Coolmore Lexington Stakes (gr. III). In the fall it means more Breeders’ Cup horses in the main-track races conducted during Keeneland’s Fall Stars weekend of stakes races.

Based on number of Breeders’ Cup winners, three of Keeneland’s four main-track Breeders’ Cup prep races conducted at its fall meet were negatively impacted during the move to Polytrack before the 2006 fall meeting. Still, thanks to the success of the one Keeneland race that fared very well, and added Breeders’ Cup events, the average number of main-track Breeders’ Cup winners to prep at Keeneland didn’t change when the track moved from dirt to Polytrack.

Keeneland’s Spinster Stakes (gr. I) registered the most dramatic decline after the change. From 1984 through 2005, Spinster starters went on to win the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (gr. I) 10 times, making it the most important Distaff prep during that stretch. But since Keeneland’s move to Polytrack in 2006, no Spinster starter has registered a Distaff victory.

The impressive list of Spinster starters to win the Distaff is listed below.

Bayakoa won the Spinster and the Breeders' Cup Distaff in both 1989 and 1990 - Anne M. Eberhardt Photo

Keeneland’s two juvenile races that pair up with the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. I) and Juvenile Fillies (gr. I) also saw a decline in Breeders’ Cup success after the dirt track was removed.

Four starters in the Breeders’ Futurity (gr. I) went on to win the Juvenile from 1985-1998 but the only Breeders’ Futurity starter to take the Juvenile during the Polytrack era was Street Sense, who finished third in the 2006 Breeders' Futurity before cruising to a 10-length score in the Juvenile on the dirt at Churchill Downs.

Street Sense finished 3rd in the Breeders' Futurity before winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile - Anne M. Eberhardt Photo

I suspect if Keeneland had been dirt in 2006, we would have seen Street Sense deliver a performance in the Breeders’ Futurity similar to his dominating Juvenile win. In the Breeders’ Futurity, he held a clear lead in midstretch but couldn’t hold off the late Polytrack rallies of Great Hunter and Circular Quay. Instead Street Sense broke through in the Juvenile at odds of 15-1.

Five of the six all-time Alcibiades Stakes (gr. I) starters who went on to win the Juvenile Fillies prepped on dirt. The only Alcibiades starter on Polytrack to win the Juvenile Fillies was She Be Wild in 2009 and that B.C. victory was secured on the former synthetic surface at Santa Anita Park.

Silverbulletday won the 1998 Alcibiades and Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies - Anne M. Eberhardt Photo

The one Keeneland Polytrack race that thrived as a Breeders’ Cup prep was the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes (gr. II) as a prep race for the Filly and Mare Sprint (gr. I). The Filly and Mare Sprint was added to the Breeders’ Cup schedule in 2007 and the Thoroughbred Club of America has easily been its most important prep race. Five of the seven Filly and Mare Sprint winners prepped in the Thoroughbred Club of America, including a current streak of five straight victories.

Groupie Doll ran in the Thoroughbred Cup of America before both of her Breeders' Cup wins - Keeneland Photo

In all, 26 winners of main-track Breeders’ Cup winners races prepped in stakes at the Keeneland fall meet. Of that 26, 19 raced on a dirt surface at Keeneland from 1984-2005; and seven prepped on the Keeneland Polytrack from 2006-2013.

Because of the success of the TOC as a prep for the Filly and Mare Sprint, Keeneland’s main-track Breeders’ Cup strike rate by year did not change. The dirt era at Keeneland saw 0.86 fall stakes starters a season go on to win main-track Breeders’ Cup races. The Polytrack era saw .87 stakes starters a year go on to win main-track Breeders’ Cup races.

But those averages would be affected by the addition of the Filly and Mare Sprint creating more opportunity during the Polytrack era. For instance, the TOC starters before 2006 would have been forced to stretch out or compete against males in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (gr. I). Surely some of the TOC starters from 1984-2005 would have won the Filly and Mare Sprint, if it had been offered.

Also during the Polytrack era, Stepahnie’s Kitten prepped for her 2011 Juvenile Fillies Turf (gr. I) victory with a Polytrack win in the Darley Alcibiades.

Dirt racing returns this fall.

Upcoming

The Breeders' Cup Challenge kicks into high gear this week and fans won't have to wait until the weekend.

On Wednesday, Aug. 20, the Juddmonte International Stakes (Eng-I), with a Win and You're In bid for the Turf (gr. IT), gets things rolling. It is just the first of eight Challenge races through Sunday, Aug. 24.

The schedule ...