A few posts ago we discussed various race track announcers, and I specifically pointed out Mr. Tom Durkin and described the joy of watching him call Arrrrr's races especially.

Well, with Durkin's exciting encouragement Arrrrr won the second race at Saratoga for July 28, 2008! It was a great run, and Arrrrr was set up well. Why is this moment more special than most others for Arrrrr? It is his first win.

Amidala and I gathered up a group who had not experienced the awesomeness of Durkin calling one of Arrrrr's races, to watch this one. And we were not disappointed. Marta and I have followed Arrrrr since the end of summer last year, and it is great to see him still giving his all. All the new fans of the Durkin/Arrrrr combo thoroughly enjoyed the call and the race. I don't think they really believed how fun it is to hear Durkin call the race, but now they are new believers.

At first I did not hear who was announcing the race and was hoping for Mr. Durkin. Then the TVG commentator said Durkin would be calling it, and I became a little giddy.

Watch Arrrrr' Win Here:



National talk like a pirate day: September 19

Pyro's Fire

I was just sitting here re-watching the Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. II) and have to make a comment to all the Pyro haters out there. So many people were dogging the handsome closer/stalker following the Derby and even after he didn't take to Keeneland's Polytrack in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) before The Run for the Roses.

After cheering him on during Stephen Foster day and watching his wonderful win there in the Northern Dancer Stakes (gr. III), and after just viewing the Jim Dandy race replay, something needs to be said. To all the Pyro haters, eat my grass.

He might not win every race, but man, his heart is in it to win it, and he has so many impressive wins and great runs under his belt. He has absolutely nothing to prove, except to continue rocking the track. Hopefully his connections will allow him to have a long career so I can enjoy his continued accomplishments.

Can you really blame him for being uneasy in a 20-horse field during the Derby? I mean he did finish near the middle of the pack. The speed in the race was rather large as well. So that is my rant: you need to appreciate this horse.

The Jim Dandy Stakes:


http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/adamsturf/archive/2008/06/17/hot-day-in-the-ville.aspx
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/adamsturf/archive/2008/07/10/tom-durkin-with-a-perfect-soul.aspx

Perfect Soul's First Winner:

Perfect Soul had his first winner over the weekend, so I want to congratulate him and his connections on the win.

Why not, one more Arrrrr race with Durkin calling:

My first experience with advising a friend on how to bet held glory and shame all in one. I had been working here at Blood-Horse for several months when the Keeneland 2007 fall meet started.

I had been laying out a lot of stories for the daily PDF/News and knew who was hot and who was not. 

My friend Joey went to the track with a group of mutual friends one day, while I was at work. I had researched some horses the night before and basically played off trainers and familiar names. I also knew how successful the horses were, because I had their work times and race recaps due to the nightly lay out work.

I told Joey what horses to go watch in the paddock as well betting strategies for each race. Amazingly, he won money based on my advice. When the feature race of the day came, it was time for Joey to put my skills to the test for me.

I went bold with the superfecta picks. Four horses stood out in that field and man, I knew they were going to help me win a superfecta. I compared their previous race histories to that of the competition.

Alas, I did not tell Joey to BOX the superfecta when he bet it. All four horses came in, but the third and fourth horses were flipped. So Joey did not win money on them, but if he had boxed it, like I forgot to tell him to do, he would have won $14,000 off that race! I slapped myself and told him the news. He was just happy he won some money during the day.

So with that story in mind, here are my Derby picks. Two scenarios come to mind.

1. Colonel John - favored
2. Z Fortune - my long shot who will be successful
3. Pyro - to clean up

The above scenario plays out with the factor being how Big Brown can not handle the talent he is running with.

or

1. Gayego (after talking with a close friend he is one of the few consistent horses this year, with great finishes in his races.)
2. Colonel John - I am happy with his workouts
3. Big Brown - has talent and will be favored, but looses steam in wake of competition

The above scenario plays out with Pyro fading in the race.

Now let's talk about the Kentucky Derby and betting strategies. Steve Haskin and Jason Shandler have great blogs and information about the Triple Crown trail.

So, what are your strategies for the Derby or graded races in general? Ten cent superfectas, multiple exactas, one horse across the board, bets based on trainers or a specific pedigree, past performances? Or maybe which horse name is the prettiest in the Oaks and most dashing in the Derby, unless the fillies venture in the Derby.

I am researching and trying to understand handicapping more in depth. I would love to know your strategies.

This weekend I have seven horses racing from my virtual stable at www.roadtotheroses.com. It is the last chance for a few of my horses to make a convincing move for the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum Brands!  Show me the money (so they qualify).

War Pass, Court Vision, Giant Moon, Tale of Ekati, Anak Nakal, El Gato Malo and Z Humor are in my stable and have races April 5th. This weekend will be the last chance for many of these horses to place a stake in the Derby.

I have followed Pyro, Giant Moon and El Gato Malo since July of last year. Pyro and El Gato Malo have solid placement in the Derby.  Giant Moon has made an impression on me and takes good pictures, so I would like to see him in the race.

So the Illinois has El Gato Malo and the Santa Anita Derby has Z Humor and holy crap, what do I do, because five horses are in the Wood.  So who did I make active in my virtual stable?  I kept El Gato Malo and Z Humor active, since they are the only representatives from my stable in each of their races and I think they could win.  Less confident with Z Humor though.  War Pass, Court Vision, and Giant Moon will be active for the Wood.

The BIG Picture for the Derby

Pyro is my choice across the board, as War Pass and Big Brown will set the pace.  Wire to wire is always an option, but Pyro will be pushed from behind by El Gato Malo. That is my prediction. Court Vision and Smooth Air will hold the middle along the race as Cool Coal Man will look for those who tire along the way around the track. Colonel John will be commanding the middle pack of Court Vision and Smooth Air.

Now you also consider the bandwagon. I tend to go against the grain often times, but Big Brown has less experience among this level of competition, compared to many other horses in this level of racing.  Not to take away from his very impressive win in the Florida Derby. The bandwagon traveled originally from War Pass and then to Pyro...I just have to say that you need to make some educated guesses, not handicapping on who's hot and who's not in the prep races.  War Pass has lost one race thus far.  Pyro has finished in style in several races.  So don't tell me they are over hyped.  In his credit, Big Brown has come through in all three of his starts with first place finishes, but the level of competition is higher in the Triple Crown Trail. Big Brown better be built to beat the best.

Side Note: 
Curlin and Big Brown both started from Post Position 12 in their races last weekend (March 29).  Big Brown was the first horse to win the Florida Derby from PP 12 and Curlin did the same in the Dubai World Cup.  My coworker Mark stated "It matters more in the construction of the track in Florida, than the one in Dubai."  But this is an exciting coincidence to observe, that two horses did something new and created a whole lot of excitement.  Well, Curlin really didn't have to try too hard to be honest, but that is fine, that is how good he is, or maybe it's just his looks...that always helps too.

Back on subject; Make sure you examine who has rocked on the dirt track, with the Derby located at Churchill and being ran on dirt.  There have been a lot of synthetic track horses nominated.  Can they run in slop?  April Showers could always pop up and create interesting track conditions.  The Breeders' Cup was a prime example of some sloppy racing. I like to also bet by trainer as a fallback. Who is the best guy to prepare their horse for a race on the dirt track of Churchill Downs? 

Other Resources

Steve Haskin's Derby Dozen:
Pyro
Big Brown
Denis of Cork
Cool Coal Man
Court Vision
Smooth Air
Colonel John
El Gato Malo
Visionaire
Atoned
War Pass
Yankee Bravo

Go Visit Jason Shandler's Blog for Triple Crown Talk.  He has  much deeper discussion on his predictions and thoughts about the Kentucky Derby and the trail to the triple crown.

Side Note:
The bowler hat, a.k.a. the "Derby", was designed by the hatters James and George Lock of Mr. Lock of St. James's Street, a firm founded in 1676 and still in business as of 2007, and was dubbed by them early on as the "iron hat". read more...

- file photo