Kentucky Derby Analysis - Exceed the Speed

re: Kentucky Derby Analysis - Exceed the Speed

aspradling — Fri, 04 May 2012 22:34:51 GMT

So I hope everyone used my Kentucky Oaks picks =)

re: Kentucky Derby Analysis - Exceed the Speed

Giddyup — Fri, 04 May 2012 18:55:56 GMT

I look for the winner to be a horse with late closing ability and Dullahan and Daddy Nose Best are the two I like most. I think Bodemeister would need to go wire to wire to get the win and if he can do that with Trinniberg and Hansen applying pressure then I think he becomes a strong triple crown threat. Safe trip for all.

re: Kentucky Derby Analysis - Exceed the Speed

Cassandra.Says — Fri, 04 May 2012 14:13:10 GMT

Funny what we see. I do not see Union Rags demonstrating a will to win. I see him wandering around the track, not focused on the horse his rider wants him to run down (BC) or refusing to quicken when a 10-ft-wide path opens before him.

He came through on the rail in one of his juvenile races. Maybe something traumatic happened to him in training that we haven't heard about. Whatever the reason, he does his best when on the extreme outside, and this is a terrible handicap in a huge field.

re: Kentucky Derby Analysis - Exceed the Speed

big john t — Fri, 04 May 2012 12:20:14 GMT

I saw Creative cause listed as iffy. He's the most consistent horse in the race, except for Gemologist. I think he'll be there at the end. If the track is muddy everything is out the window and you should put your money on El Pedarino.

re: Kentucky Derby Analysis - Exceed the Speed

edgardo cruzet — Fri, 04 May 2012 04:28:39 GMT

Physically Imposing Fifty Proof

Same here. Not a mention at all.

re: Kentucky Derby Analysis - Exceed the Speed

aspradling — Fri, 04 May 2012 03:11:48 GMT

I agree that Prospective looks great and is the definite Derby sleeper. He has looked solid on the track. I have to ask is he in form with his blue grass performance?

re: Kentucky Derby Analysis - Exceed the Speed

Alydar — Thu, 03 May 2012 23:03:41 GMT

My list:

1- TAKE CHARGE INDY, since he was 2

2- GEMOLOGIST, we don´t know so far how good he is

3- ALPHA, because he has talent and beautiful blood for greatness

4- HANSEN, is the champion and is brave

5- WENT THE DAY WELL, they say is better than Animal Kingdom... Hmm

My longshot: OPTIMIZER. Come on, is Lukas card.

re: Kentucky Derby Analysis - Exceed the Speed

Lammtarra's Arc — Thu, 03 May 2012 22:30:57 GMT

No mention of Prospective?...Big fan of this Mark Casse horse.

re: Kentucky Derby Analysis - Exceed the Speed

Don from PA/DE — Thu, 03 May 2012 21:21:51 GMT

Take another look at "Gem" last win at CD in Nov, that is how is going to run and probably win this race, who knows who else will be there behind him at the finish line

re: Kentucky Derby Analysis - Exceed the Speed

aspradling — Thu, 03 May 2012 20:31:06 GMT

That is a pretty nice analysis. I had heard the rumblings on Trinniberg being present, but I like your full explanation of why his speed is key. I was kind of leaning, if that were to happen, on Bodemeister's turn of foot and Union Rags' will. I still like closers with such pace. If not to win, to round out those tickets. Not all of the speed and stalkers will have gas left in the stretch.

re: Kentucky Derby Analysis - Exceed the Speed

Ranagulzion — Thu, 03 May 2012 20:06:21 GMT

Adam,

Had it not been for Trinniberg's presence in this Derby, I believe that the race could end up as an anti-climax. The addage "pace makes the race" is true if the pacemakers are drawn out of their comfort zone. I firmly believe that if the first half mile is run in 47sec or slower, one of either Bodemeister, Hansen or Take Charge Indy will compress the race into a six furlongs sprint and not be caught. However with the fleetfooted Trinniberg in the race, the chance of that happening is very slim, thus we are likely to see a truly run race from start to finish. May the best horse win in such a scenario. My fancy is Union Rags.