The Terrain is Steep

re: The Terrain is Steep

SusanW — Sat, 18 Apr 2009 13:46:09 GMT

I went to the Road to the Roses to set active horses, then came here. And my top five active are exactly the same as yours.

Sometimes being high on a two year old just doesn't work. I loved Vineyard Haven last fall...he has done the Dubai disappearing act. I wonder if he stayed here......

I think I will do an Iavarone next year.

re: The Terrain is Steep

The Phantom — Fri, 17 Apr 2009 23:03:38 GMT

Mr Meow J, good pick on Mission Im, I was impressed so you do know how to handicap or was that luck or did your expert buddies who like nic so much give you the tip?lol.Square Eddy looks strong in the Lexington.I also believe if he wins he'll go to the Derby rested , ready and a threat.cats now have 8 lives.

re: The Terrain is Steep

Greg J. — Wed, 15 Apr 2009 15:21:08 GMT

FYI,

Just to let everyone know, Eibar Coa, Who was on General Quarters in his win last weekend, probably will opt to ride Musket Man, Which will open the door for Julien Leparoux to ride General Quarters, He is the hottest young jockey in North America right now, Knows Churchill like the back of his hand, and is leading Keeneland in the current meet(35% winners), This just adds to why he is in my top three.....Just a heads up to everyone...

re: The Terrain is Steep

aspradling — Wed, 15 Apr 2009 13:39:54 GMT

Grande: I totally meant to put Mr. Hot Stuff in my plan b list...I do like Mr. Hot Stuff a lot...I don't think he will win, but will be in the money. Thanks for reminding me!

re: The Terrain is Steep

Greg J. — Wed, 15 Apr 2009 13:14:58 GMT

For Big Red,

You are spot on about his work, Thing of beauty, I am so high on Friesan, I really think if he gets a clear path in the Derby, it could be a huge victory(5 Lengths?), I know alot has to go right from now until the derby, but it still amazes me that he isn't on alot of the so-called experts top three picks, I just think the combo of Saez/Jones and of course Fire, is almost unbeatable!, We will see...

re: The Terrain is Steep

Grande Dame — Wed, 15 Apr 2009 12:34:28 GMT

My Derby pick has been Mr. Hot Stuff since before he even made his first start. I have my fingers crossed that he will be able to make it into the KY Derby starting gate (he is 20th or 21st on the earnings list right now). If he does, watch out! He has the 4th best finishing time of all of the recent prep races (better than Pioneer of the Nile, I Want Revenge, Quality Road, etc...you can see the list in the latest Downey Profile story). Plus, he is a full brother to Colonel John, last year's Travers winner (1 1/4 miles on the DIRT) who was also the 2nd favorite in the 2008 KY Derby. In my opinion, Mr. Hot Stuff has the pedigree, the right running style, and the talent to win the 2009 KY Derby if he just gets a chance to run in it!

re: The Terrain is Steep

For Big Red — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 21:07:18 GMT

TO GREG J: Friesan Fire's work today was a thing of beauty. The colt looks great, fit and well-muscled. I have to assume they've been giving him long gallops up to two miles before his work on the 8th.

FF just floated over the track so easily, going 5f in 1:00 2/5, 4th best of 23 at the distance. He was on a loose rein, with the rider standing up all the way and not moving his hands one bit from the colt's withers. The colt did it all on his own with no pressure from the rider. Jones has been quoted saying there will be a mile work on Sunday, then probably a final blow-out at Churchill Downs a few days before the Derby.

re: The Terrain is Steep

Greg J. — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 18:35:01 GMT

Adam,

"Giant Oak:

He is an Enigma, I think he needs a PERFECT trip in the derby for him to have a shot, needs a clear path on stretch to get his huge frame and stride going, that is alot to ask for a twenty horse field though, I think his long stride is a detriment for the derby. He ran a game race in the Illinois Derby, but he was all out and still couldn't catch Musket Man. So, one never knows but he isn't on my top five.

Also, I left off "Chocolate Candy" above, I actually have him ahead of "Dunkirk", But Dunkirk is scary, a complete wildcard...

re: The Terrain is Steep

The Phantom — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 18:08:38 GMT

Terrain, Imperial Council , Giant Oak are 3 stiffs, won't have any effect the the triple crown races.Old Fashion wouldn't have been able to get the derby distance , sorry to see him injured but the horses today are not as well condition and the breeding cracks are starting to show the ironhorses are gone.Breeding these days is not done for stamina or longer distances.

re: The Terrain is Steep

aspradling — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 18:05:43 GMT

Greg J.: How do you feel about Giant Oak?

re: The Terrain is Steep

Greg J. — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 17:54:26 GMT

"Pioneer of the Nile":

Has never run on dirt, Rumors that he doesn't like the dirt, Went to California apparently to take advantage of the synthetic surfaces there, Bill Mott, his previous trainer, had the feeling that Pioneer of the Nile was not at his best on dirt,raced him as a 2-year-old on turf at Saratoga, where Pioneer of the Nile won once, tried him on the synthetic surfaces, most notably at the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita, where he encountered traffic problems but still finished only three lengths behind the winner. He reminds me of Colonel John, Who went to the Derby as the best of the West and was sent off as the second choice, but he spun his wheels in his dirt debut and finished sixth.

"Quality Road":

Has a quarter crack in his right hind hoof, and the Kentucky Derby is no place for tender feet. I know they say it is healed and fine BUT Quarter cracks can always resurface...I think he is too lighly raced(Even though he has won 3 out of four).

"I Want Revenge":

Has not beaten anyone of note, Winning just once in six races in California, Came east to New York because there was less talent, three victories against eight starts...Not good enough..

All three are very talented, don't get me wrong, But that leaves us with only one true winner:

"Friesan Fire":

Friesan Fire has won all three of his races this year , Has faced alot better talent, has won on every kind of track, He inherits an abundance of stamina from his sire, A.P. Indy. He has done everything perfectly. Be ready for this horse, he will blow your mind there are only two things that may or may not seperate him from the roses General Quarters and Dunkirk no one comes close to these top three....Don't let the seven weeks off fool you, Larry Jones ALWAYS has his horses ready for the Derby!

Just my two cents....

re: The Terrain is Steep

Wanda — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 16:35:02 GMT

I'm not giving up on Dunkirk just yet. I think he is coming around nicely, how much is the question.

re: The Terrain is Steep

aspradling — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 13:24:55 GMT

You all have very good points. I do think this could be the year for Cali breds. They will need to take to the dirt, but I have a gut feeling they will this year. And my gut usually has a hint of right in it.

Normally I would say dirt prepped horses would be stronger, but some of them are off the trail.

It is going to be fun for sure. Talamo will be in a whole new world for a first Derby, it will be exciting for him, but I won't be betting on him I don't think.

re: The Terrain is Steep

Pennysmom — Tue, 14 Apr 2009 04:27:51 GMT

This is the first time I've really followed the Triple Crown prep as closely as I have this year.

I was really disappointed by both the Pamplemousse and Old Fashioned's injuries.

Here are my top horses for the Derby:

Chocolate Candy: I think he would have beat Pioneer of the Nile if they'd had to go another 1/8 of a mile in the Santa Anita Derby

Pioneer of the Nile: If they have a horse that can set the pace for him to rate off of, I think he'll do well, but he was a little disconcerted by not having a pace setter in the Santa Anita Derby

Dunkirk

I Want Revenge: I like this horse, but if his connections stick with Joe Talamo, I am concerned about the fact that it is his first Kentucky Derby (I may be wrong in saying this,and if I am, my apologies). Don't get me wrong, I think he's a talented jockey, but...

re: The Terrain is Steep

anti draynay and thong song! — Mon, 13 Apr 2009 22:08:01 GMT

Musket man is too slow to win the derby but he could round out the tri box, I think FF and IWR, still interested in Dunkirk and with all the hype this horse has been flying under the radar and with 5 weeks rest could provide a power run coming down the stretch this year!