Breeders Cup Chat

Picks For Saturday BC Races

jshandler — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 19:01:00 GMT

After a long week of handicapping, here are my Saturday thoughts... Juvenile Turf When considering morning-line favorite Interactif, there are two ways to look at the full field that he is facing: If you like him, you should be thrilled that you are likely to get a more than fair price. Or if you think he is vulnerable, there are no shortage of upset options. I happen to like him and if he stays at...(read more)

Picks For Friday BC Races

jshandler — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 00:27:00 GMT

Ok fellow handicappers, the time has come for Breeders' Cup selections.

I have received many of your picks for the contest, so I have an idea of what you guys are thinking. I don't like picking winners two days out and I will be handicapping up to the races on Friday, but I do want to get this out there so that we can open up dialogue on each race.

Fire away with any questions/comments you may have and be sure to join in for the live blogs all week. I'll post another blog on Thursday with my Saturday picks. Looking forward to debating with everyone...

Marathon

I'm not crazy about this race, probably because other than a few horses, I haven't seen many of them race, and trying to handicap 1 ¾-mile races are not my specialty.

I've talked to some who say Mastery is the "lock" of the Breeders' Cup. I guess that is based on the St. Leger when he won by three-quarters of a length in September. He really has never run a bad race but has only won three times in eight starts. He's probably the deserving favorite, but if he is anywhere near 9-5 I will likely just play exotics and no win tickets.

I do like Father Time a bit. He had a troubled trip in that St. Leger and should improve off that. This could be a chalky race.

Mastery
Father Time
Man of Iron

Juvenile Fillies Turf

It's hard to look past Lillie Langtry in this race, even with a full field. She has to go an extra furlong for the first time, but has been very consistent in all six starts. She had a nice, easy prep about a month ago and should be sitting on a huge effort.

I do like a couple of price horses here. Smart Seattle (8-1) has looked excellent on the track all week and I think a mile will suit her a little better than 8 ½ furlongs, in which she ran second in her last two. The Jessamine was the perfect prep for this race. She lost to House of Grace by a nose and will be a much better price.

Elusive Galaxy (20-1) ran pretty well in her prep, the Natalma at Woodbine, in her first try in North America and at a mile. She shipped to California last month and has settled in nicely for Ben Cecil. She also gets her second race with Bejarano aboard. A live 20-1 shot with Bejarano? I'll take a stab.

Lillie Langtry
Smart Seattle
Elusive Galaxy

I'll box all three in an exacta

Juvenile Fillies

Tough race. Blind Luck has to be used based on her Oak Leaf. Hollendorfer hasn't had a lot of success at the BC, but he is still one of the best in California and has been for a long time. She is definitely the one to beat.

That being said, I'm going for an upset here. She Be Wild (8-1) has done absolutely nothing wrong in four starts. She dominated at Arlington in three starts and ran big in the Alcibiades at Keeneland for her prep. Wayne Catalano has a good handle on 2-year-old fillies and he has a live one here. Leparoux gets the mount and she should stalk the pace and pounce on the leaders in the stretch.

She Be Wild
Blind Luck
Beautician

F&M Turf

There are many who believe Forever Together has lost a half-step. Not me. What's she done wrong? She was beaten nose in the Canadian and came flying at the end of one-mile First Lady after being 20 lengths out. The 1 ¼-mile distance is ideal for her, as we saw last year. Don't look past her. She's a champion and Sheppard will have her revved up.

I think Magical Fantasy has to be included on the bottom of tickets because of her success out here and Pure Clan is in great form. Rutherienne stretches out to 10 furlongs for the first time but she might enjoy the added distance for a piece.

Forever Together
Pure Clan
Rutherienne/Magical Fantasy

F&M Sprint

I'm a bit surprised at how many people think Ventura is going to get beat. She is a couple noses away from being undefeated in four grade I's this year. Her Woodbine Mile was sick. She won this race by four last year. She's a monster.

I'm not sure why I don't like Informed Decision as much; maybe because she hasn't been out here. She certainly is capable of pulling the minor upset.

I do like Evita Aregentina (20-1) to hit the board. What's she done? Well, she beat boys in the San Vicente over this course in February and became the first 3YO filly in 65 years to beat elders in the A Gleam two back. She is a bit inconsistent, but if she's on and gets a hot pace, watch out.

Ventura
Evita Argentina
Informed Decision

Ladies Classic

It's wide-open without Zenyatta. You can make a good case for any of them in here. Even Lethal Heat, the longest choice on the morning line, is in good form and likes this track. Distance is her issue.

I was sure Music Note was going to win this race a week ago. She has been off the charts good in New York in her last two and is probably the best horse in the race--on dirt. I know she ran a solid third in this race last year and there is no reason to believe she shouldn't run well again, but...

I am leaning toward Proviso (8-1), a 4-year-old filly who impressed me a lot in the Spinster in her first U.S. start. She was much the best despite her disqualification, proving she can handle synthetics. I'm hoping she gets even better. She's has had an aggressive 2009 campaign in Europe this year, including a third to Goldikova in August. She fits well here and will be a big number.

I also can make strong cases for Cocoa Beach and Rainbow View

Proviso
Music Note
Life Is Sweet/Cocoa Beach

Thoughts?

Thoughts on the Draw

jshandler — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 03:04:00 GMT

Thought I'd check in real quick after a long Tuesday.

There weren't many works, though many of the Euros hit the track for the first time after being cleared from quarantine. Tuesday was all about the draw.

Here are some of my quick first impressions of the draw. Let me know what yours are:

I was a bit surprised in the Juvenile Fillies, first that Connie and Michael was installed as the second choice off of just one race, and that Devil May Care and She Be Wild, each with a good chance to win, were listed at 8-1. There is a lot of value in that race.
I was also mildly surprised that Forever Together is the 5-2 favorite in the Filly & Mare Turf, even though she is the defending champ. I was hoping to get a price on her. Maybe I still can, as I expect Midday or Magical Fantasy to go off as the post time choice.
My eyes lit up when I saw Evita Argentina at 20-1 in the Filly & Mare Sprint. I hope she stays that high. She's live.
Rainbow View being 6-1 in the Ladies Classic was a bit surprising.
The Juvenile Turf might be the most wide-open race all weekend. I like Interactif, but the three Euros are also appetizing and I have a couple longshots I'll share with you on Thursday.
When Zensational drew the 1 post in the Sprint nearly everyone in the room gasped. It was the exact post Baffert didn't want. We'll see what it means...
Baffert said he wasn't as concerned about Lookin at Lucky drawing No. 13 in the Juvenile, but Im not so sure about that either. Tough to win out there.
As with Evita Argentina, I was also pleased to see another Sadler horse I like, Whatsthescript, with 15-1 odds in the Mile. She'll be in all my exotics.
Finally, in the Classic, the horses I like most right now--Einstein, Gio Ponti, Richard's Kid, and Colonel John--are all 12-1. Bingo.

Back tomorrow with picks for the six Friday races. Study hard!!

Don't Read Too Much Into Works

jshandler — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 22:24:00 GMT

"It was perfect."

"He's as fit and sharp as he's ever been."

"He's ready to roll."

These were the comments of Chip Woolley, Eoin Harty, and Bob Baffert, respectively, right after each of their BC Classic starters turned in their final works. Woolley, who has Mine That Bird, Harty (Colonel John), and Baffert (Richard's Kid), all sounded extremely confident that their horses would run the race of their lives on Nov. 7.

Later, I ran into Helen Pitts and she too was optimistic that Einstein would turn in a big one based on his recent training.

It was at that point that I bumped into a colleague and he and I shared the same thought: Has any trainer ever publicly said that their horse's work "wasn't what they wanted" or "left something to be desired?" If they have, I can't remember.

My point is, often times we tend to make too much of works, especially during big events like the Kentucky Derby and the Breeders' Cup. Each one is picked over in critical fashion, and the fact is, most times you'll find observers saying the same thing: "Wow, he looked great." Or, "he's getting over the track really well."

From a handicapping perspective, the works are often overrated. Baffert said it best: "I'm happy the way that he's been working, but you know, it's not the way they look in the morning that matters; it's who shows up on race day."

In the Classic especially, we are all looking for any edge we can get. It's one of the toughest Classics to handicap in a long time. There are so many variables with each horse--Zenyatta going against males at a new distance, Gio Ponti switching from turf, the Euros running on synthetics for the first time, Mine That Bird and Summer Bird facing elders, and so on and so forth. Works are part of the equation, but they are not everything. You will need to go much deeper with your handicapping in this race, and then you'll still need some luck to win.

For what it's worth, in my opinion, Richard's Kid's work was visually more impressive than anyone. He looked like an express train in the stretch.

But then again, you know what they say--all of them looked great.

___________

Quote of the morning went to Baffert, who when commenting on the time it took him to acclimate his training to synthetic surfaces said: "The first year they put Polytrack in at Del Mar I thought I was going to have to quit training and get a job selling shoes at Nordstrom."

Back tomorrow afternoon with thoughts on the draw and more...

Breeders' Cup Prop Bets

jshandler — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 18:43:00 GMT

One of our regular bloggers, Matthew W, gave me a good idea for a fun blog: Breeders' Cup prop bets.

How many of you fellow gamblers enjoy playing the multitude of prop bets during the Super Bowl? I know I do. For those of you not familiar, prop bets are unique, individual bets that are made available during marquee events.

During the Super Bowl, you can bet on anything from whether the opening coin toss will be heads or tails, to how many commercials there will be, to actual game bets, like which player will score the first touchdown or who will have the most rushing yards. They are very fun and sometimes an easy way to make (or lose) a lot of money.

Prop bets for the Breeders' Cup seems so natural. Not only are there 14 races with the best trainers, jockeys, and horses in the world, but since we're all gambling on the races anyway, why not add a few more enticing wagers? This year, the Breeders' Cup has added what can be considered a prop bet to their official wagering menu--giving bettors a chance to wager on what jockey they think will win the most races over the weekend.

I will take it a step further. Here are list of prop bets I created. I came up with all bets and lines. Feel free to throw out more of your own and tell me which of these you would wager on.

Head-to-Head Props

Which jockey will win more Breeders' Cup races?

Garrett Gomez vs. Rafael Bejarano

Which owner will win more Breeders' Cup races?

Juddmonte vs. Godolphin

Which trainer will win more Breeders' Cup races?

John Sadler vs. Ken McPeek (each with six pre-entered)

Who will have more Breeders' Cup wins?

Todd Pletcher trained horses (12 pre-entered) vs. Godolphin owned horses (14 pre-entered)

Which horse will win by a larger margin?

Goldikova vs. Ventura (both horses must win)

Which horse will finish ahead of the other:

Einstein vs. Col. John

Mine That Bird vs. Quality Road

Which post position number will produce the most Breeders' Cup winners?

Over/Under props

(For those of you not familiar, an over/under number is set and you must wager whether the correct answer will be over that number or under that number).

Largest margin of victory in any one Breeders' Cup race:

Over/under: 5 ½ lengths

Number of Breeders' Cup wins for Bob Baffert:

Over/under 1 ½ (Obviously you can't have ½ of a win, but the lines are set this way so that there are no ties)

Number of Breeders' Cup wins by Todd Pletcher:

Over/under: 2 ½

Number of Breeders' Cup wins by European-based horses:

Over/under: 4 ½

Number of Breeders' Cup wins by American-based horses:

Over/under: 9 ½

Number of Breeders' Cup wins by Garrett Gomez:

Over/under: 3 ½

How many horses will be repeat Breeders' Cup winners from last year?

Over/under: 2 ½

Combined number of lengths all 14 Breeders' Cup winners will win by:

Over/under: 32 ½ lengths (a win by a nose, head or neck will count as a half-length)

Number of Breeders' Cup winners bred in states other than Kentucky:

Over/under: 4 ½

Number of horses to win Breeders' Cup races while wearing blinkers:

Over/Under: 5 ½

Total number of scratches for the 14 Breeders' Cup races:

Over/under: 4 ½ (starts after the final entries are drawn on Nov. 3)

Number of Breeders' Cup winners at odds of 10-1 or more:

Over/Under: 4 ½

Number of Breeders' Cup winners sent off as favorites:

Over/under: 6 ½

Biggest longshot Breeders' Cup winner:

Over/under: 22-1

As the "bookie" I'll hold all fictional bets. lol. Enjoy...

Live Blog - Friday, October 30th at NOON

Blood-Horse Staff — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 15:55:00 GMT

Breeders' Cup Chat Live

Pre-Entries Are Out; BC Contest Underway

jshandler — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 17:00:00 GMT

The Breeders' Cup pre-entries are out. Here is a complete list for each of the 14 races.

I'm interested to get your thoughts on some of them. Anything surprise you? Any disappointments?

I have a few thoughts. First, as far as some of the horses cross-entered, I wasn't too surprised to see Zenyatta has first preference in the Classic. I had been hearing that they were leaning that way, and it seems she could be taking on the boys. I'm sure we'll all have plenty to say about this in the coming days.

I also noted that Girolamo has first preference in the Classic. Of course, Godolphin has four pre-entered in the Dirt Mile (including Girolamo), so this wasn't a total surprise. But if Girolamo does goes in the Classic, he could be a wild card. The horse is super talented. I will be anxious to see how he handles the Pro-Ride next week.

Other mild surprises as far as cross-entered horses are Mastercraftsman, who has first preference in the Dirt Mile, not the Classic, for Aidan O'Brien, and Rainbow View, who has first preference in the Ladies Classic, not the Filly & Mare Turf.

I'm not sold on Quality Road in the Classic, but Todd Pletcher holds a strong hand in the juvenile races. I wouldn't be surprised to see him bag two of the juvenile events. Aikenite and Eskendereya are both major players in the Juvenile, Interactif will be the favorite in the Juvenile Turf, Devil May Care has a chance in the Juvenile Fillies, and he could have two in the Juvenile Fillies Turf. In all, Pletcher has 12 horses pre-entered.

We're only nine days away now, let's start the debating.

Also, as far as the Breeders' Cup handicapping contest, I decided to extend the deadline for picks to Nov. 4, which will allow people to see the final draws and determine where horses like Zenyatta will go. Make sure you have your final picks in by midnight Pacific on Nov. 4. Email picks to jshandler@bloodhorse.com. Again, here are the rules:

1) Pick the winner and second place finisher in each of the 14 BC races.

2) The final tally will be based on a $2 win/$2 place bet in each race. At the end of the 14 races we will add up all the payouts and the winner will be the person with the most money in their bankroll.

3) In the event of an unlikely tie, the tiebreaker goes to the person who has the most money in the BC Classic.

*Note: The scoring is not complicated, but to be clear if you pick, let's say, Einstein to win the BC Classic and he finishes second, you get no money for that pick. He would have to win. Or, if you pick Forever Together to finish second in the F&M Turf and she wins, you will only get her second place money. Understand?

Also, I'll have another blog this weekend, and one when I get to Cali early next week. Don't forget the live blogs begin on Wednesday, Nov. 4 and will go through Saturday.

Euros Have Huge Edge in BC Turf; Ready For a BC Contest?

jshandler — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 01:01:00 GMT

Do the Americans have any legitimate chance to win the second biggest race at the Breeders' Cup--the $3 million Breeders' Cup Turf? Right now, I would have to say no.

With Gio Ponti being pointed toward the Classic, it seems that most Americans are pinning their hopes on Presious Passion. Yes, he has runaway speed and hypothetically could run the closing Euros off their feet, but I ask you, is this the only legitimate threat we have to knock of a powerful trio of Euros that includes defending champ Conduit, his equally-talented stablemate Spanish Moon, and super filly Dar Re Mi, who seems to be leaning towards the Turf? As the final days approach, I'm sure there will be one or two other Euros entering the Turf as well.

Other than Presious Passion, our top contenders from what I can tell are Just as Well, who won the Northern Dancer by DQ; grisly veteran Grand Couturier; Joe Hirsch Turf Classic upsetter Interpatation; and Telling, third behind Interpatation.

Does this strike fear into anyone? Not me. The Euros are looking very, very strong for the Turf.

_______

Anyone interested in a Breeders' Cup contest?

Here's how it will work: On Oct. 28 (next Wednesday), pre-entries will be drawn for the two-day Breeders' Cup World Championships. Based on those pre-entries, we will have the probable fields for each race.

You will have between Oct. 28 and Nov. 2 to make your selections. Of course there are going to be a few scratches and defections as the week goes on, but if we waited until the final entries and post positions were drawn on Nov. 2 and 3, there wouldn't be enough time to calculate the picks. (I do have other work to do you know).

Anyway, here are the very simple rules:

1) Pick the winner and second place finisher in each of the 14 BC races.
2) The final tally will be based on a $2 win/$2 place bet in each race. At the end of the 14 races we will add up all the payouts and the winner will be the person with the most money in their bankroll.
3) In the event of an unlikely tie, the tiebreaker goes to the person who has the most money in the BC Classic.

The rules are very simple. The pari-mutuel system rewards players who pick longshots instead of just all favorites.

Let me know if there are any questions. I will remind everyone of the contest on Oct. 28 when pre-entries are released.

Send all picks to me at jshandler@bloodhorse.com

The winner, aside from having bragging rights, will get to write a guest blog about any topic that they wish. Of course, it is subject to editing. I'll also see what I can come up with as far as other prizes, although at this time I cannot promise anything specific.

Live Blog - Friday, October 23rd at NOON

cdawahare — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 15:54:00 GMT

&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;a href="http://www.coveritlive.com/mobile.php?option=com_mobile&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;task=viewaltcast&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;altcast_code=de76242320" &amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;Breeders' Cup Chat Live Blog: 10/23/2009&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;/a&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;gt;

Q&A With Ken McPeek

jshandler — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 20:10:00 GMT

His stable is not nearly as large as some of the other big name trainers, but when the Breeders' Cup gets underway in just over two weeks, Ken McPeek is likely to have more starters than anyone in the four juvenile races.

McPeek is expected to have at least one starter in each of the juvenile events--the Juvenile Turf, Juvenile Fillies Turf, Juvenile, and Juvenile Fillies. And based on what he told me today, he may have two additional starters pointing for Santa Anita. That would be a total of six for a guy who has saddled 10 starters since 1994.

McPeek, a Lexington native, has a knack for picking out quality yearlings and turning them into stars. Remember, he was the one who signed the $57,000 ticket for Curlin in 2005. This year, he is at it again with several others, including House of Grace and Beautician--two that he picked out at Kentucky sales.

As always, most of the 2-year-old races will be wide open at the Breeders' Cup. It would be wise to keep an eye out for McPeek starters in all of them.

By the way, be sure to return to our live blog on Friday. We'll talk about all things Breeders' Cup from noon-1 EDT. There will be live blogs all week during the BC.

JS: Let me ask you about each of your juveniles Ken. Let's start with House of Grace, who will go in the Juvenile Fillies Turf. She is owned by you and your wife. What do you like about her?

KM: She not what I call an obvious filly; she's on the smallish side. But she's real intelligent and handles herself right. It was a nice surprise when she handled the Polytrack so well (in the off-the-turf Jessamine Oct. 15).

JS: Does it concern you that she will come into the race without a turf prep?

KM: Not at all. She should be able to get back to the turf without any problem. I give her a pretty good shot.

JS: How about Beautician in the Juvenile Fillies? She had that troubled trip in the Alcibiades and still lost by only 3 1/2 lengths.

KM: Just about everything that could go wrong did go wrong. It was disappointing but at the same time we realized she is better than what she was able to show. We saw what we wanted in the Spinaway (runner-up on Sept. 6) and we'll proceed to California with confidence.

JS: Noble's Promise (Juvenile) surprised many of us in the Breeders' Futurity when he won at 13-1, but I guess not you. You said after the race you had high hopes for him.

KM: The race he ran before that at Presque Isle was very impressive so we knew he could run. I didn't know how he'd handle the two turns and that was the big question mark. I told Willie (Martinez) to ride him with patience and if he got beat I would take the blame.

JS: He's showed speed in his three wins. Do you see Noble's Promise being near the lead in the Breeders' Cup?

KM: No, I don't. I still want Willie to ride with patience and give him a chance with his late kick. That race is usually won in the last three-eighths, so I'd prefer he not be up front.

JS: What about Bridgetown in the Juvenile Turf? What kind of horse is he?

KM: He's very fast; similar to Noble's Promise. I was wondering about the stretch out in the (Summer Stakes at Woodbine Sept. 19), but he handled it fine. He's a good-looking colt.

JS: So that's four you will be sending to the Breeders' Cup?

KM: Actually, we're hoping to send two more juveniles. We have Connie and Michael, who broke her maiden impressively last week (by almost eight lengths Oct. 17 at Keeneland). If she gets in the juvenile Fillies we'll send her too.

And then we have Fist of Rage in the Juvenile if he gets in. He won at Keeneland last week in his first start. The other four shipped out (to California) today. We'll see what happens with the other two.

JS: So you'll have at least one starter going in every juvenile race and maybe more. Of your 10 previous Breeders' Cup starters, I think eight were juveniles. What is about your training method that allows you to have so much success with 2-year-olds?

KM: Well, I think you have to have the timing right to get them there. And you also have to have the right foundation under them. Many of my young horses are with Domenick Brennan in Ocala, and he does a nice job of getting them ready. At some point you have to give them a shot at going longer and then you just hope they can handle it.

JS: You haven't had a winner yet, but you've been close at the Breeders' Cup. I guess you're hungry for that first one?

KM: Yeah, we've been knocking at the door. Dream Empress was second last year in the Juvenile Fillies, Repent was second in the Juvenile (in 2001), and Tejano Run was third in the Classic (1994). I think there was one other (She's a Devil Due third in Juvenile Fillies). We're hoping to get over the hump this year. We've got our fingers crossed.

I credit my clients who give me the opportunity to be in this position, and my staff, who does a great job of getting the horses ready. We're hopeful with all of them this year. I'm grateful to be in this position. Hopefully we won't embarrass ourselves when we get out there.

Beat 'em or Play 'em?

jshandler — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 15:36:00 GMT

Okay, only three weeks to go. It's time to start getting serious.

As most of you know, I live for beating chalk. Win or lose, I like to take my shots. On that note, I'm beginning to think about which potential favorites I will have to play and which ones I am going to try to beat.

This exercise lets us look at possible top contenders for many of the races (I couldn't do them all) and gives us an idea of who the favorites will be. It is simple: If the morning-line odds were posted today and you had to choose, would you try to beat or play the given horse?

For each race I used the odds set by Mike Watchmaker of DRF.

Let me know your thoughts.

Filly & Mare Sprint

Beat ‘em or Play ‘em: Ventura

It's going to be tough to pick against her based on her spectacular performance last year and what she just did in the Woodbine Mile. She'll likely go off somewhere in the neighborhood of 2-1, I'm guessing. Informed Decision seems the most likely candidate to knock her off, or perhaps Indian Blessing, who might to be getting back to her old form. Seventh Street could also be a factor.

I say she's a play ‘em.

Sprint

Beat ‘em or Play ‘em: Zensational

He might be the easiest pick of all week. Of course, he'll also probably be even-money. Right now, I don't see any way to play against this monster, who not only is the fastest horse in the race but gets to stay home. I don't think we've seen his best yet. I really like Fatal Bullet and I was very impressed with what Capt. Candyman Can did on Poly, but Zensational is probably too good.

He's a play ‘em.

Turf

Beat ‘em or Play ‘em: Conduit

This division became wide open when Gio Ponti entered the Classic. Conduit is the early favorite based on his win a year ago, but he has won just once in four starts in 2009-which isn't the way he came into the BC last year. His effort against Sea the Stars in the Arc-losing by just 2 1/4 lengths-wasn't bad at all-indicating he will definitely be a factor again. But there are others that will be more enticing at bigger prices. The Euros may have the other top choices as well with Fame and Glory, Jukebox Jury, and Spanish Moon, among others. Our best chances here may lie with Presious Passion and Just as Well. Midships is out. Let's see what happens in the Canadian International. The Euros have a huge edge right now.

Conduit is a beat ‘em.

Filly & Mare Turf

Beat ‘em or Play ‘em: Dar Re Mi

It remains to be seen whether Dar Re Mi will go in this race or against the boys in the Turf (they make like her more at 12 furlongs), but for now let's assume she stays here where she would be the heavy favorite. There was no shame in finishing fifth in the Arc and it looks like she came out of the race fine, said John Gosden. She will certainly be tough, but don't discount our top two-Magical Fantasy and Forever Together. Magical Fantasy made it four in a row in the Yellow Ribbon and will have a big edge on a turf she adores. Forever Together had a bad trip in the First Lady and was flying at the end. Don't be discouraged by her last two efforts. She hasn't lost much. She'll be tough again-and at a good price. There will be many others with solid chances in here too.

Dar Re Mi is very good, but for now, she's a beat ‘em.

Mile

Beat ‘em or Play ‘em: Goldikova

Talk about a tough horse to play against. Goldikova might be even better now than she was a year ago when she made all of our jaws drop in the Mile. Yes, she finished third in the Prix de La Floret a couple weeks ago, but she lost by a half-length in a 14-horse field. Not exactly a major fall off. She's still a monster and will be extremely tough to handle. Mastercraftsman, the one horse that might be able to run with her, will likely go to the Classic. Our best hopes are Cowboy Cal and Court Vision, both winners last weekend, but they are probably more than a few steps behind.

Goldikova is a play ‘em.

Dirt Mile

Beat ‘em of Play ‘em: Regal Ransom

There are so many ways to go here and still a lot to be determined, especially since Godolphin owns four of the top contenders-Regal Ransom, Girolamo, Midshipman, and Pyro. Who will go and who won't? DRF has Regal Ransom listed as the 3-1 choice for now, but this is very tentative. His comeback effort in the Super Derby was very impressive indeed, especially on paper when earning a 104 Beyer. But let's be honest, he didn't beat much. The biggest question is with Girolamo, who ships out to Cali after his impressive Jerome score but will not be officially pointed toward the race until the connections see how he trains over Pro-Ride. Crown of Thorns and Misremembered are also factors.

With so much uncertainty, Regal Ransom is a beat ‘em for now.

Juvenile Turf

Beat ‘em or Play ‘em: Interactif

It's going to be really, really tough for me to play against this colt. Did you see his effort in the Bourbon? It was huge. He lost a ton of ground on the turn and still was so much the best against a big field. He should be even better on a firm turf in Cali. Truth be told, I haven't looked very closely at all of the contenders, but I may have seen all I need to from Interactif.

He is a play ‘em.

Juvenile

Beat ‘em or Play ‘em: Lookin at Lucky

Well, you can't help but be impressed with Lookin at Lucky after his fourth in a row. He gets to stay home and will run for a trainer who knows how to win BC races. Playing against him with a horse like D' Funnybone, who has been extremely impressive but will make his first start over synthetics and will train in New York, will be gutsy. Im not sure about Dutrow's other contender, Homeboykris, yet. Noble's Promise and Aikenite both proved worthy of a long look after the Breeders' Futurity too.

There is a still a lot to consider here, and for that reason Lookin at Lucky is a beat ‘em right now.

Ladies Classic

Beat ‘em or play ‘em: Zenyatta

It is the burning question right now: Will she go to the Classic or Ladies Classic? I still say it will be the Ladies Classic, but time will tell. Even if she goes here, I will look to beat her. Her terrific performance in the Lady's Secret will undoubtedly make her even more of a heavy favorite, which is fine with me. Music Note is much better than she was last year when finishing third by three lengths. Her speed numbers prove it. Careless Jewel is also a freak and to think we might get 6 or 8-1 on her is appetizing.

If Zenyatta goes, this is going to be a fabulous race either way. I know I'll be in the minority, but she is a beat ‘em.

Classic

Beat ‘em or play ‘em: Rip Van Winkle

Rip Van Winkle may or may not be the morning-line favorite if Zenyatta goes, but along with Mastercraftsman, they form a pretty formidable one-two punch for the Euros. Rip Van Winkle has a pair of group I wins a row entering the Classic and it looks like distance will be no problem. Mastercraftsman did nothing to hurt his chances when he romped by five lengths in his first try over synthetics on Oct. 2 at 10 furlongs and his one-length defeat to Sea the Stars earlier in the year looks even better now. Summer Bird, Gio Ponti, Colonel John, Richard's Kid, and Quality Road seem to be our best hopes. Also, don't sleep on Einstein.

Obviously, there is a lot to be determined still. But if Rip Van Winkle is indeed the favorite, he is a beat ‘em in a wide-open field.

Sea the Stars Retirement "Unfair" to Racing

jshandler — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 16:12:00 GMT

Like every racing fan and person looking forward to the Breeders' Cup, I was disappointed to hear the news today that Sea the Stars is being retired.

When I first heard, I was saddened but not surprised. Then I read the comments by trainer John Oxx and became annoyed.

"We feel it is unfair to keep him going any further given his unprecedented record of achievement in the last six months," Oxx said. "He's come out of the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe in his usual good form. He is fit and healthy and has been cantering since the race."

Anyone else shake their head at this statement? Never mind the part about Sea the Stars being retired as a 3-year-old while completely healthy. The comment about it being "unfair to keep him going" is the laugher.

Unfair? You just said the horse is in his "usual good form." What is so "unfair" about racing a horse that loves to race? Isn't that what they were bred to do?

Listen, I'm not naïve. I know it is all about money. The horse is worth more retired than if he would win 20 straight group I races in a row. I know this. But don't offend us by saying it is "unfair" to race him. If it was so unfair, why did you send him to France to for the Arc for his sixth race in five months? If he would have lost that race, I bet you it wouldn't have been "unfair" to send him to the U.S. for the Breeders' Cup.

I guess I'm so opinionated on this subject because I believe early retirement more than anything else is keeping horse racing from attracting new fans. You can blame synthetic tracks, medication, poor leadership and marketing, or anything else you want on the decline of racing, but I believe our superstars being retired as 3-year-olds hurts as much as all of them. How are new fans supposed to get attached to the sport when our best horses race seven times and are retired at the peak of their careers?

Think about it. How popular would football be if Tom Brady retired after he won the Super Bowl? Basketball if Kobe Bryant retired after he won a championship? Baseball after Albert Pujols won the World Series? I know horses are much more fragile than human athletes and the analogy is somewhat skewed, but you get my point.

Until we figure out how horses can be worth as much on the racetrack as they can in the breeding shed, it will be harder and harder for the sport to attract new fans. It's as simple as that.

Look, the Breeders' Cup Classic will be exciting with or without Sea the Stars. I'll be just fine handicapping the race as it comes up. But without him and Rachel Alexandra--maybe the two best and most popular horses in the world--the World Championships just lost another opportunity to attract new fans.

That is "unfair."

Weekend Analysis: A Grade I Bonanza

jshandler — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 16:23:00 GMT

What a simply spectacular weekend of racing we have ahead of us--Opening weekend of Keeneland, six grade I races from Santa Anita, and a pair of major 2-year-old races at Belmont. Other than Derby and Breeders' Cup week, and opening weekend of Saratoga, there may be no better racing weekend on the calendar. Enjoy.

There are way too many races to analyze in depth so I'll keep it short and look forward to your comments and analysis of all the action.

Keeneland

In the Thoroughbred Club of America it looks like a two-horse race between Informed Decision and Carlsbad. I know a lot of people think Carlsbad will pull the minor upset but I am not one of them. Informed Decision is 3-for-3 at Keeneland and should be able to wear down Carlsbad, who could get pressure up front from Bold Union. Informed Decision for the win.

Forever Together is also unbeaten in two starts at Keeneland and should make it 3-for-3 in the First Lady, no matter how the turf is. She won this race last year and will rebound from her tough defeat last out. Acoma needs another race and Diamondrella has regressed a bit since the beginning of the year. Tizaqueena is the one I'll use in my exotics with Forever Together. She should enjoy the cut back in distance and could carry the lead a long way.

The Breeders' Futurity is a crapshoot. Two-year-old races on synthetics are tough enough to figure out without having 14 horses in the field. In this case, I'll try to beat the favorites--Dixie Band and Backtalk. I like Make Music For Me, who ships in from Cali with two good stakes efforts under his belt, Hockley, runner-up to Dublin two back, and Stately Victor, who comes off a route win on the turf.

The condition of the turf could play a big factor in the Shadwell Turf Mile. Mr. Sidney and Justenuffhumor like it soft, which it very well could be. As good as Justenuffhumor has been lately I think he is best suited for longer. On paper, Court Vision has regressed this season, but he was struggling with a health issue that was corrected with surgery in July. Despite not being at his best all year he has held his own in most of his five grade I races. He's back to 100% for this with an eye towards the Breeders' Cup. Adds blinkers and should be ready to run a big one. Hopefully the ground stays firm.

In Sunday's Spinster, I'll go against Swift Temper, who is unproven over Poly and does not have a work there this week. I'll go with the English shipper, Proviso, making her first start in the U.S. She has run some big races in France, including a group III win last out.

Santa Anita

As we talked about on That Handicapping Show, there are many ways to go in a wide-open Goodwood. I like Parading, who makes his third start in Cali for Shug. He had a wide trip in the Pacific Classic and was still beat less than two lengths. He makes his first start at Santa Anita, but has been working well there. He has a big win over the Poly at Keeneland earlier this year. The cut back should benefit him and he gets Bejarano back. I'm hoping he doesn't get too much action, as I like him to win at a price.

I also like Colonel John, who is 3-for-5 at Santa Anita and makes his third start off a layoff, and Monzante, who ran some big numbers last year and was solid in his first start of the season last month. Tiago will be in all of my trifectas too. Mine That Bird is a throw out for me. He faces older horses for the first time and is in over his head.

Zenyatta will probably make it 13-for-13 in the Lady's Secret. I'll wait to the Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic to beat her.

Belmont

Dublin certainly looks like the real deal and all eyes will be on him in the Champagne. If he gets beat I think it will be by Homeboykris, who Dutrow says is more talented than D' Funnybone. It's a tall task for him in his stakes debut, but talent is talent. I'll box those two in an exacta.

I'm going against Awesome Maria in the Frizette. She has been terrific in her last two but had perfect trips in both. Now she has to deal with two other burners, Nonna Miss, who broke her maiden by 12, and Franny Freud, already a two-time stakes winner. I like Franny Freud, who Paul Pompa bought privately after her stakes debut in Florida. She seems to want more ground and has been working great. I hope she stays at 8-1.

Good luck to everyone this weekend. Who do you like?

A Classic in the Making

jshandler — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 02:20:00 GMT

So you're not a big fan of synthetics, you say?

Me neither. The intent was good. Unfortunately, it just didn't work out as planned. I think most of us would agree on this by now.

But here's the thing: It's Breeders' Cup time. For the second straight year, I'm tired of all the complaining. The World Championships are at Santa Anita, again. Deal with it. The races are going to be fun. Let's enjoy them.

The ironic thing is, because the Breeders' Cup is once again on synthetics, the Classic is shaping up to be one heck of a race. Think about it.

Let's start with the Euros. Already confirmed for the race are Irish 2000 Guineas winner Matsercraftsman and QEII winner Rip Van Winkle, both trained by Aidan O'Brien. Also under consideration is perhaps the best 3-year-old on the planet, Sea the Stars, who is a perfect 6-for-6 in European major races, including last week's Arc de Triomphe score.

The possible presence of all of these Euro stars is due only to the fact that the Classic is being held on a synthetic surface. None would even be considered the race if it were on natural dirt. As we saw last year, the Euros add a whole new dimension to the race. After all, it is the WORLD Championships.

Over on this side of the pond, the Classic is likely to include our best turf horse--Gio Ponti. He will be a huge x-factor in the race. And again, Christophe Clement would not have considered the race without the synthetic factor.

Speaking of older stars, we're going to get to see Einstein, who has dropped off a tad in last couple but is still a super horse with a synthetic background.

Want local stars? How about Rail Trip, a proven synthetic grade I winner who might be sitting on a huge race at a track he loves. And don't forget about Bob Baffert's Richard's Kid, who upset Rail Trip in the Pacific Classic; Colonel John; Tiago; and Chocolate Candy, all of them prepping in this weekend's Goodwood.

Then we move on to our East Coast based 3-year-olds. There is no hotter horse than Summer Bird. Don't forget, he trained over the Santa Anita Pro-Ride for four months.

And we can't leave out the Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird, who will face older horses for the first time in the Goodwood. Again, he is proven on synthetics.

Oh yeah. I almost forgot about Zenyatta. Personally, I think there is little to no chance that the connections try her in the Classic, but its been bandied about for so long now I had to mention her.

How's that for a potential Breeders'Cup Classic field?

Let me reiterate again: I'm not a fan of synthetics. But even the most ardent critic would have to admit their presence has helped draw a potentially excellent Classic field for the second straight year, even if by accident. Yes, we lose Rachel Alexandra. She would have added a great deal to the field, but for all of Jess Jackson's complaining, I'm not even sure he would have run her in this year's Classic even if it were on dirt. I think he would have shut her down by now anyway.

Tell me, which older horse are you upset about not seeing in the Classic because it's on a synthetic? In other words, if the race was on dirt, how would the field look?

We're exactly four weeks away from the Breeders' Cup. Let's stop all the synthetic complaing for one month and enjoy what could be one of the best Classics in a long time.

Jockey Club Gold Cup Weekend Analysis

jshandler — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 16:13:00 GMT

Over the next two weekends, 41 graded stakes will be run. Many of them will have Breeders' Cup implications. All of them present us with an opportunity to make money. Let's get to work.

On Saturday, Belmont takes center stage with five grade I's on Jockey Club Gold Cup day. Let's take a brief look at each of them and try to put together a winning late Pick 4.

(Current weather forecast in New York for Saturday is scattered thunderstorms and 60% chance of rain).

Race 6-Beldame

This is probably the least interesting of the Belmont stakes since it drew only four betting interests and Music Note is 2-5 on the morning line. Anyone going to try to beat her? I'm not. Although I won't bet the race, I will watch it with great interest since I really believe Music Note could be the horse to beat in the Ladies Classic.

Race 7-Vosburgh (start of late Pick 4)

Only a five-horse field but still a challenging race to handicap. Fabulous Strike is obviously the one to beat since he continues to be in terrific form, comes in fresh, and is a head away from winning this race two years in a row. But he is far from a lock in here.

Go Go Shoot draws the rail and will have first jump on the field. He nearly had enough in the Vanderbilt but couldn't hold on. He won't have the luxury of an eight-pound weight break this time however, and that could be a factor. He has never carried 124 pounds. And he gets Maragh for the first time.

If anyone takes down Fab Strike I think it will be Munnings. He cuts back to six furlongs for the first time since breaking his maiden and should be able to take advantage of a hot pace with a late bid. He loves this track and has been facing the best 3-year-olds all season long. He could be tough.

Race 8-Flower Bowl

Tough call here and it's the place where I go deepest in my Pick 4. Strong cases can be made for favorites Carribean Sunset, Dynaforce, and Pure Clan. It may be Pure Clan's turn to run a big one. She didn't have the best of trips when beaten 1 1/2 lengths by Dynaforce in the Beverly D and goes back to a distance she enjoys. If the ground comes up soft it could be to her benefit, as she ran a big one over the yielding turf in last year's Garden City. I give her the slight edge.

I also wouldn't discount Criticism at a price. She'll be near the lead on a course she runs well on and at a distance that suits her. She comes in fresher than many of these.

Euro invader Moneycantbymelove is also a factor if the ground is soft. She ran a big one at Goodwood last out against two very good fillies.

Race 9-Turf Classic

I don't see Gio Ponti getting beat, soft ground or not. Yes, he has to go a distance he's never been tested at before, but he had plenty left in his last two so it shouldn't be a problem. It's also not the toughest of fields. Telling probably won't run back to his last, Presious Passion is likely to scratch because of the weather, and Grand Couturier was beaten soundly by Gio Ponti earlier this summer. If anyone pulls the upset it may be Musketier, who could be alone on the lead if Presious Passion scratches. Still, this looks like a single to me. Gio Ponti and Musketier in an exacta box.

Race 10-Jockey Club Gold Cup

Seems like many think Summer Bird is just too good right now and he will lock up the 3YO championship with another big effort. Not so fast.

If the track is wet Summer Bird certainly will have an advantage, but he isn't the only one who likes an off going. Macho Again is 2-for-2 on a wet track and Dry Martini also doesn't seem to mind it. There is no doubt that Macho Again is in the best form of his career and if he runs back to his Woodward form he should win. Ten furlongs is probably not his ideal distance however, so he may be up against it.

Dry Martini is very tempting. He really likes Belmont and if you are willing to throw out his Whitney he could be a play at a nice price. He's worked sharply since that last race and has a win at the distance. Barclay Tagg sounds confident.

Quality Road is the wild card. He certainly should be better prepared for this one and the third start off a layoff is a nice angle. I have a feeling he will run big.

I think Summer Bird gets beat.

$1 Pick 4 ticket: (3) Munnings, (5) Fabulous Strike/ (1) Caribbean Sunset and Beauty O' Gwaun, (3) Pure Clan, (4) Dynaforce, (5) Criticism, (7) Moneycantbymelove/ (1) Gio Ponti/ (2) Macho Again, (6) Dry Martini, (7) Quality Road.

It's a $30 ticket.

Good luck to all this weekend. What's your late Pick 4? Any other races you like from around the country?