Breeders Cup Chat : Arlington Million

Arlington Million, Whitney Weekend Analysis

jshandler — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 05:21:00 GMT

As a fan of racing and wagering, Arlington Million day is always one of my favorite events of the year--solid, deep fields, top horses from all over Europe, and some of the best turf racing offered in this country. The Million is perhaps my favorite turf race of the season, other than the Breeders' Cup races.

There are also many other big races from around the nation this weekend as well, including the Whitney, Test and Vanderbilt from Saratoga, and the Bing Crosby and Clement Hirsch from Del Mar, the latter featuring the undefeated Zenyatta. Let touch on a few of these and we can talk more in depth about all of them on Friday's live blog, which begins at noon.

Arlington Million

This year the American's seem to have an edge, especially with the presence of Gio Ponti, Einstein and Presious Passion, who have a total of six grade I wins between them this season alone. It's hard to dismiss Gio Ponti since he fires almost every time and has won two of three starts at this distance. He also has run well on both firm and soft turf, even though the weather is supposed to be fine for Saturday. Christophe Clement has won nearly every big turf race this country has to offer, including the last two editions of the Beverly D., but has never won a Million. This would seem to be his best shot.

Einstein will certainly be tough too and Presious Passion is dangerous on the front end if Recapturetheglory doesn't go with him. Just as Well deserves consideration too after coming off a win on the course in the Arlington Classic. Jonathan Sheppard owns and trains the son of A.P. Indy, which is never a bad thing. He will be a big price. As for the Euros, I like Cima de Triomphe the best of the three. He's a horse who either wins or doesn't fire. The Italian Derby winner won a group II two starts back in England and ran fourth to Sea the Stars in the Coral-Eclipse last out. He has been settling in nicely at Arlington for more than week.

The Pick: It's hard to separate many of these, so I'll just give out an exacta box: Gio Ponti, Just as Well and Cima de Triomphe. I'll leave out Einstein at my own risk.

Whitney

Commentator goes for his third Whitney win and has been working lights out coming into the race. Had it not been for the entry of Tizway, it would be very hard to pick against the 8-year-old star. But the speedy Tizway won't let him alone on the lead and could challenge him enough to set up one of the horses stalking the pace. A couple good candidates are Smooth Air and and Asiatic Boy.

Smooth Air has been very consistent this season, finishing first or second in all four starts. He makes his second start for new trainer Chad Brown and should get a nice, ground-saving trip from post 1, and have first run at Commentator in the stretch. He'll be a nice price. Asiatic Boy makes his third start for Kiaran McLaughlin in the U.S. and seems to be right on the edge of winning a big one over ere. He could have very easily won the Stephen Foster. The cut back in distance from the Suburban could help. Dry Martini also seems to be in his best form in quite a while and should be considered.

The Pick: I'll take a stab with Smooth Air to win and box him in an exacta with Commentator and Asiatic Boy.

Clement Hirsch

Zenyatta tries to stay undefeated in a race she won the year before. It's always difficult to pick against her and the race isn't a great one from a betting perspective, but I'll try to make a case for Life is Sweet, her stablemate and the probable second choice.

Life is Sweet was second by less than two lengths to Zenyatta in the Milady in May, then came back to run a solid third against males in the Gold Cup. She will make her first start at Del Mar, but has been training lights over the surface, as evidenced by her huge work on Aug. 2. A cutback to 1 1/16 miles may be to her advantage and if she likes the surface, she could get the jump on Zenyatta.

The Pick: What the heck, I'll take a stab with a small win bet on Life is Sweet and also box her in a trifecta with Zenyatta and Dawn After Dawn, who had the lead at the top of the stretch in the 1 1/8-mile Vanity before finishing third.

Other quick picks for the weekend: Take the Points in the Secretariat, Black Mamba in the Beverly D., and Fabulous Strike in the Vanderbilt.

Good luck to all. Who do you like?

Handicapping Arlington Million Day

jshandler — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 17:48:00 GMT

With all the Big Brown and Curlin hoopla over the past week or so, we've gotten away from the Breeders' Cup Challenge. Let's get back into now, and what better time to do it then on one of my favorite days - the International Festival of Racing. The Beverly D. and the Arlington Million are "Win and You're In" events, and both look like terrific races.

Beverly D.

This looks like the better betting race of the two, with four horses coming off graded stakes wins and a couple of formidable Europeans to consider. There are also three millionaires in the field.

Pace should not be an issue here, as both Dreaming of Anna and Rosinka should ensure some pretty brisk fractions. I like both of them, especially because of their connections, but taking top prize here will be asking a lot. Mauarlakana is one of my favorite female turfers out there and she will be a handful here. She has been nearly perfect this year and the race should set up just fine for her from a pace standpoint. I'm going to pass on Precious Kitten, both because of her short odds and the fact that she hasn't been tested as much as some of the others this year. That being said, it wouldn't shock me if she won, especially after that 108 Beyer last out. Frankel and Bejarano are tough to bet against right now. Communique must be considered because she is an improving filly and gets the services of Arlington's leading rider, Rene Douglas. The two European-based fillies, Toque de Queda and Cicerole, have done their best work at a mile, so distance could be an issue.

The Pick:

It's taking every fiber of my being not to go with Mauralakana here. Three straight Beyers over 100 and four of five in the winner's circle this year. This is a special horse who can explode down the stretch. But she will probably be 5/2 or less, so I am going to reluctantly pass and go for a price. The price horses I considered most seriously were Rosinka and Cicerole. Both should be 7/1 or more and are in good form. In the end, I went with Rosinka. My hope is that she won't get in a speed duel with Dreaming of Anna, but rather she will press the pace and take over coming off the turn - much like she did in the Glenn Falls Handicap. Here's a 5-year-old who might be in the best form of her career and is very consistent. She hasn't been off the board in her last eight tries. In her final race as a 4-year-old she just missed against Lahudood in the grade I Flower Bowl. We all know what Lahudood did after that. This will certainly be the toughest spot of Rosinka's career and it will take her best. But I have some catching up to do in this contest and I need to take a shot.

Arlington Million

If you watched this week's edition of That Handicapping Show, you know that I really like Archipenko. He has won group I or II races on three different continents this year and his only loss since late February came in the Dubai Duty Free by a half-length. Many believe that race was the toughest and deepest turf race in the world this year. If you haven't seen the replay, here it is. He comes flying late to get third.

Archipenko is trained by Michael de Kock, who took over from Aidan O'Brien early this year. A South African, de Kock is one of the most respected trainers in the world. The addition of blinkers is one of the reasons he gave for Archipenko's drastic turnaround from the second half of his 3-year-old campaign. Whatever the reason, Archipenko will be extremely tough to beat here. He'll get regular jockey Kevin Shea, who flies in from South Africa. You also can't dismiss O'Brien's horse, Mount Nelson. He also looked very impressive while winning the Coral-Eclipse last month in England. Here is the video. O'Brien won the Million in 2005 with Powerscourt. Actually Powerscourt won in 2004 as well, but was disqualified and placed fourth. I like Stream Cat too, an improving horse who won the Arlington Handicap by four lengths despite a nine-month layoff. He was only a length back in last year's Million. Einstein is always tough, but I'm guessing he takes a step back here. Sudan, who I also considered, was scratched today.

The Pick:

Archipenko looks too tough for me to pass up here. Some say he might be one of the best turf horses in the world. His price will be short, but since I went with Rosinka in the Beverly D., I can afford to take some chalk here.

**For the record, I am taking Plan to upset Tizdejavu in the Secretariat. Good luck to everyone!!