Breeders Cup Chat : Big Brown

A Thank You and Simple Wishlist For 2009

jshandler — Tue, 30 Dec 2008 17:05:00 GMT

As 2008 drifts off into the sunset, I'd like to take this opportunity to thank everyone who has read and/or commented on Breeders' Cup Chat. We had some lively debates, and even though 2008 wasn't the best of years for horse racing, I think we did a pretty good job of keeping it fun. I appreciated everyone's input, even when we disagreed. Thanks for making this blog so interesting and successful.

This will be my final Breeders' Cup Chat post until next summer, as the blog will switch over to Triple Crown Talk beginning next week. I look forward to chatting with everyone about the next crop of 3-year-old superstars. We already know who some of the early Derby favorites are, but let's all keep an eye out for the late-bloomers. Remember, Big Brown didn't burst onto the scene until March.

For my final post of the year, I'd like to offer a simple New Year's wishlist. Not that any of these three things will happen, but in a perfect world, we would see changes in 2009. Feel free to post your own wishlist.

See everyone on Triple Crown Talk!

3. Stricter penalties for medication violations - Enough is enough. A big reason for the decline in the popularity of horse racing is that people have little or no confidence in the integrity of the sport. When the trainers of the world's most popular horses continually get popped for drug violations - and keep getting a slap on the wrist - it sends a clear message: The public has no reason to trust horse racing. And if that continues, the sport will keep declining.

Let's finally put in place tough drug policies, much like other nations have had for years: First violation - one year suspension; second violation - five years; third violation - lifetime ban. That would solve the lying and cheating real quick. More realistically, I hope at the very least a rule is put into place that says a trainer cannot transfer horses to his/her assistant during the time they are serving their suspension. It's a laughable way of avoiding the penalty. Under my rules, if you are serving a suspension, either the horse is permanently transferred to another barn or they are not allowed to run during the infraction period. It's that simple.

Steroids nearly ruined baseball. Illegal drugs (not just steroids) will ruin horse racing if stricter penalties are not enforced.

2. Address the problem of unwanted horses - I wrote about this in an earlier post, but if this epidemic is not tackled the problem will keep getting worse, and thousands of horses will continue to suffer.

The slaughter issue in this country is a mess right now and likely will not be solved at a Congressional level any time soon. The Thoroughbred industry is not solely responsible for the unwanted horse issue (see the Quarter Horse industry), but one thing we can do is make owners and breeders more accountable. A system must be put in place to make owners and breeders financially responsible for their horses.

I don't claim to have all the answers, but it makes sense that if a person takes on the responsibility of breeding or owning a horse, they should be held responsible for its welfare, both during and after racing - especially since it is those very animals that are putting bread on the table. Something needs to be done. Now. There aren't nearly enough rescue facilities to solve the problem.

3. Name a commissioner - Neither No. 1 or No. 2 on the list above, or anything else for that matter, can get accomplished without putting a person or group in charge of horse racing. I know it's easier said than done, but we need a governing body to enforce rules. Otherwise, the cheating, unwanted horse issue, and other current problems will get worse. The Safety and Integrity Alliance developed in October was a good first step, but it was only a band-aid. Tough rules need to be put into place, and without a commissioner they won't get done. It's time for someone to step forward. The "league" must have control over the sport, not the states.

Top 10 Performances of 2008

jshandler — Fri, 12 Dec 2008 16:56:00 GMT

Although the Eclipse Awards are six weeks away and the best horses in each division will be decided then, I thought it would be a fun to do some voting of our own.

Since I still haven't decided on some of the divisions and I don't expect you guys/gals to do all that research, we'll keep this simple. This is a vote for the Top 10 Performances of 2008. It can be for any division, in any single race.

Obviously, there are many to choose from, that's what makes this so tough and fun. After reading mine, I'd love to see what everyone agrees and disagrees with. Feel free to post your own Top 10.

10. Commentator, Whitney Handicap - This was the highlight of the remarkable gelding's fabulous year. He not only won the event for the second straight year by nearly five lengths, but posted a 120 Beyer, which was by far the highest number of any dirt horse going more than a mile this season. Of course, he also recorded the best Beyer at less than a mile in 2008 as well. Not a bad year for a 7-year-old.

9. Benny The Bull, Dubai Golden Shaheen - All four of Benny's wins came in spectacular, come-from-behind fashion, so it was tough to choose between them. I nearly picked the True North Handicap at Belmont because it looked like he had no chance to win in deep stretch but somehow got up with a devastating late charge. However, you can't overlook his performance in Dubai, which was against better. It was breathtaking.

8. Proud Spell, Kentucky Oaks - The Larry Jones trainee not only beat a solid field of 3-year-old fillies, she destroyed them. The five-length victory gives her the edge over Music Note for divisional championship honors.

7. Red Giant, Clement Hirsch Turf Championship - Not only did the 4-year-old colt show grit in edging Out of Control by a head, but he set a new North American 1 1/4-mile turf record in 1:57.16, breaking a mark that had stood since 1977. That's impressive. Out of Control's effort should not be overlooked either.

6. Curlin, Dubai World Cup - His 7 3/4-length romp wasn't against the best of fields, but it was still a tremendous effort. It also solidified him as one of the best horses since the turn of the century.

5. Goldikova, Breeders' Cup Mile - The French invader knocked off a talented group of boys, including last year's winner Kip Deville, in spectacular fashion. Her turn of foot in the final sixteenth was eye-popping, and a highlight of the weekend.

4. Midnight Lute, Breeders' Cup Sprint - Speaking of BC highlights, the 5-year-old Real Quiet horse may have provided the weekend's best performance with his amazing 1 3/4-length score, in which he set the BC record of 1:07.77 for six furlongs. It was his second straight BC Sprint win and amazingly, came in only his second start of the year.

3. Stardom Bound, Oak Leaf - Her BC Juvenile Fillies win was great too, but the Oak Leaf was even more dazzling. The Tapit filly rallied from the clouds to mow down rivals in the stretch in a scintillating 3 1/2-length score, doing it in a time of 1:42.44.

2. Zenyatta, Apple Blossom Handicap - It's difficult to choose her best performance of the year since she went undefeated. Obviously, her Ladies Classic triumph was special and locked up divisional honors. But the Apple Blossom was scary good. The 4 1/2-length victory was against a very good group, including champion Ginger Punch, and it proved she was just as good on dirt as synthetics, if not better.

1. Big Brown, Kentucky Derby - Many of us have gone on record as saying Big Brown was not our favorite horse, but you cannot discount what he did in the Derby. It was one of the best performances since Secretariat, considering he did it from the 20-post and in only his fourth career start, and it was so dominating. It may be a long time before we see a 3-year-old do that again under those circumstances.

Some of the great performances I reluctantly left out of my Top 10 were Old Fashioned in the Remsen, Pyro in the Risen Star, Big Brown in the Florida Derby and Preakness, Da' Tara in the Belmont, Raven's Pass in the BC Classic and Eight Belles in the Derby.

Let the debating begin!!

Old Fashioned Has the Look of a Genuine Derby Contender

jshandler — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 17:05:00 GMT

Technically, this blog is still called Breeders' Cup Chat, with Triple Crown Talk not officially returning until the start of the New Year. But in my mind it is never too early to start talking about the Kentucky Derby, especially after the performance we saw from Old Fashioned last weekend in the Remsen.

If you missed it or haven't gotten around to watching Old Fashioned's eye-popping 7 1/4-length score at Aqueduct, do yourself a favor and check it out. What you will see is your early Kentucky Derby favorite. That's right. I'm saying it now. Forget about Vineyard Haven, Midshipman or the other impressive 2-year-olds we've seen so far; Old Fashioned is the one to watch when the Triple Crown trail begins in a couple months.

It is impossible not to be impressed with Old Fashioned so far. After breaking his maiden at first asking, the son of Unbridled's Song caught everyone's attention next out when he devoured first-level allowance company at Delaware Park, winning by more than 15 lengths on Nov. 3.

In the Remsen, Old Fashioned flashed early speed, was under a Ramon Dominguez stranglehold until inside the eighth-pole and still destroyed the field without being asked. When Dominguez peeked back at the quarter-pole and drew away with ease, I had flashbacks of Kent Desormeaux doing the same thing on Big Brown in his allowance race at Gulfstream. It was an awesome sight to watch.

For people who were not overly impressed, I know what you're saying: Old Fashioned had things his own way on the lead and the fractions (:24.41, :49.44, 1:14.18) were very soft. But I'll counter that by telling you he ran the final 3/8th of a mile in :36 and final eighth of a mile in :12 1/5^th, all without ever being asked! I don't care how slow you go early, if you come home in those splits, you're something special. Plus, in his allowance race he ran a :47 1/5 half and 1:12 for six furlongs while being pressed.

When I spoke with trainer Larry Jones on Thursday, he was also shocked by Old Fashioned's closing time in the Remsen.

"That surprised me more than anything else," Jones said. "We knew he had had good speed and turn of foot, but when I saw he got that last three-eighths in a little over 36 seconds and was still galloping, that impressed me.

"He had it pretty easy up front, but couldn't rate. He went :49 for a half, how much slower can he go? Why go :54 if you don't have to? I think he already proved he could rate at Delaware."

Jones went on to compare Old Fashioned to Eight Belles, who had the same ability to draw away from the field without being asked. When pressed, he admitted Old Fashioned is probably the most talented 2-year-old he has ever trained, including Eight Belles, Proud Spell and Hard Spun.

"I would have to say he's probably the best I've had at this point," Jones said. "Eight Belles didn't have that same early lick. Hard Spun was really fast, but he had to work a little more at the end. This colt is the whole package. We're very pleased right now, especially to get that mile and an eighth win under his belt. I've never had one do that this early. He acts like he just wants to go, go, go."

Jones said Old Fashioned arrived in New Orleans on Wednesday in great shape and they will begin mapping out a plan for him. He will keep him separated from his two other Derby hopefuls - Friesen Fire and It Happened Again.

"I have three good ones here," Jones said. "Old Fashioned won't go in the LeComte; maybe the Risen Star, but I think they cut the purse in that one. So he might go to the Southwest and stay out there with my string at Oaklawn. We'll see."

Wherever he goes, watch out. Old Fashioned, who is owned by Rick Porter's Fox Hill Farms, is not just a speed burner like War Pass. He is much more than that. Granted, it is still very early and I am by no means calling him your Derby winner yet. But this colt is special. We'll be talking about him all spring long.

Curlin Retirement Leaves a Huge Void For 2009

jshandler — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 22:06:00 GMT

The announcement earlier this week that Curlin would not race in 2009 was not a surprise, but the reality of it made me come to one disappointing realization:

Other than Zenyatta, there really aren't many top-tier older horses I am looking forward to watching next year.

With Big Brown and Curlin now out of the mix, we now have the two most popular, and arguably, the two best North American-based dirt horses retired. And that's just the beginning of it.

Some of the notable older horses who have either already been retired or will likely be retired after 2008 are Student Council, Ginger Punch, Hystericalady, Benny the Bull, Midnight Lute, Red Rocks, Evening Attire, Zanjero, Perfect Drift, Lava Man, Red Giant, Tough Tiz's Sis, Zaftig, Alwajeeha, Sealy Hill, Lewis Michael, Dreaming of Anna, Mauralakana, Heatseeker, as well as European stars Zarkava, Raven's Pass and Henrythenavigator. There is also probably a decent chance that Commentator and/or Kip Deville will be gone after their final races this year.

Kind of depressing, isn't it?

At least we have the top 3-year-olds to look forward to. Well, some of them anyway. That's because two of the top Kentucky Derby hopefuls, Vineyard Haven and Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Midshipman will winter in Dubai for Sheikh Mohammed, as well as BC Juvenile Turf winner Donativum likely going to England for Princess Haya.

Again, thank our lucky stars for Zenyatta.

Before I paint too bleak of a picture, there are still some exciting horses that should return in 2009, most of them females - Ventura, Cocoa Beach, Music Note, Proud Spell, Forever Together and Indian Blessing (Baffert's long range goal for her is the Dubai World Cup Sprint) to name a few. And, of course, there is Stardom Bound, who should only get better as a 3-year-old.

As far as the males, 3-year-olds like Colonel John, Mambo in Seattle and Denis of Cork should improve, and sprinter Fatal Bullet looks like he'll be a force. Perhaps the one older horse I am looking forward to seeing more than any other is BC Dirt Mile winner Albertus Maximus, who is set up for a big 5-year-old campaign.

l should also point out that this year is not unlike any other. The reality of horse racing today is that this is time of year when horses retire. It's the nature of the sport and we have to accept it. It's time for the new stars to make their mark.

However, it doesn't take away from the fact that the departure of Curlin, Big Brown and many of our other favorites leaves a huge void for 2009.

My New Friend Big Brown

jshandler — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 17:44:00 GMT

For anyone that has read this blog or Triple Crown Talk, there is no secret that I have never been the leader of the Big Brown bandwagon. I've always appreciated his excellence during the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, but I had difficulty separating the human connections from the horse. Fair or not, that's just the way I am.

Despite not being a fan, I showed up at Three Chimneys on Wednesday for the breeders and media event which was designed to welcome the dual-classic winner to the Midway, Ky. farm, where he will begin his life as a stallion in the near future. And I have to admit, I came away from the event with a newfound liking for Big Brown.

As I always do when I visit Three Chimneys, the first thing I do is walk into the stallion barn and make an immediate left towards my favorite horse - Point Given. I must have missed the news that the 2001 Horse of the Year is performing his stallion duties in Brazil for a while, so imagine my surprise when I looked over and saw Big Brown in the stall normally occupied by Point Given.

After being informed by a co-worker about Point Given's vacation, I walked over to Big Brown. Not only is he a spectacular looking horse, but he has a very likable personality. He was active, made eye contact with me and just exuded the look of a winner. He was impressive. Then he walked right up to me, so naturally, we started talking.

After telling him what a terrific racehorse he was and apologizing in advance for not voting for him for Horse of the Year, I asked him the one question every racing fan wants to know:

"What happened in the Belmont?"

Apparently, I either annoyed him or overstepped my bounds, because it was at that point that Big Brown abruptly turned around, walked away and showed me his rear-end. I was not offended. I completely understood him not being ready to talk about it yet. It's still too soon.

Despite the way that our conversation ended, I came away with a brand new liking for Big Brown. It also helped that Three Chimneys has always been my favorite farm, has my favorite employees working there, and has my favorite crop of stallions. They put on a very classy event for the Big Brown welcoming, complete with a catered lunch, live band and a "Re-usable Brown Bag" tote which included some very nice gifts. It was a fun day.

So in closing, here's to my new friend, Big Brown. You will still never be my favorite, and I would appreciate it if you kindly give Point Given's stall back to him when he returns, but all in all, you're not so bad. I'm sure you'll have fun in your new career.

And who knows, maybe the next time I come back you'll be ready to talk about the Belmont.

Photo: Anne Eberhardt

Pre-Entries Announced, Let the Games Begin!

jshandler — Fri, 17 Oct 2008 07:50:00 GMT

Does it feel like Christmas morning to anyone?

Breeders' Cup pre-entry day is upon us and for your convenience, below you will find the complete list of all 14 races. Next Tuesday, the final fields with post positions will be released.

As always, there were a number of surprises. I was most looking forward to seeing which Europeans were going to make the trip across the pond. In total, 35 Euros are pre-entered. The Classic, which of course lost Big Brown earlier in the week, looks very solid. Multiple group I winners Henrythenavitagor and Raven's Pass both have first preference in the Classic, which makes the marquee race that much more interesting. In addition, turf specialist Champs Elysees was a surprise entrant in the big race.

The turf is loaded with international talent - Soldier of Fortune, Conduit and Eagle Mountain all spicing up what should be a terrific race. The Marathon, which I think is the most anticipated of the new races, is also infused with talented Europeans.

It was fun to see Indian Blessing enter the Sprint, although she does have first preference in the Filly and Mare Sprint. We'll see what Bob Baffert decides. Either way, the Sprint looks like a tremendous betting race. I was also excited to see Precious Kitten and Ventura both entered against the boys in the Mile, although Ventura seems to be pointing towards the Filly & Mare Sprint.

I will be blogging from Santa Anita each day beginning on Monday. I'll analyze and handicap four races each day, and give out selections for each race. Be sure to watch That Handicapping Show too. I'm looking forward to getting everyone's input and selections.

For now, I'm mainly interested in what your take is on the pre-entries. Anything that surprised you? Any disappointments? Let the games begin!!

Friday races

Filly & Mare Sprint

Dearest Trickski; Dream Rush; Indian Blessing; Indyanne; Intangaroo; La Tee; Lady Sprinter; Magnificience; Miraculous Miss; Psalm (IRE); Tiz Elemental; Tizzy's Tune; Ventura; Zaftig

Juvenile Fillies Turf

Beyond Our Reach (IRE); C Karma; Consequence; Dream Empress; Emmy Darling; Evita Argentina; Freedom Rings; Heart Shaped; Laragh; Maram; Oui Say Oui (IRE); Renda

Juvenile Fillies

Be Smart; C. S. Silk; Doremifasollatido; Dream Empress; Emmy Darling; Evita Argentina; Palacio de Amor; Persistently; Pursuit of Glory (IRE); Renda; Saucey Evening; Sky Diva; Stardom Bound; Van Lear

Filly & Mare Turf

Communique; Dynaforce; Folk Opera (IRE); Forever Together; Goldikova (IRE); Halfway To Heaven (IRE); Mauralakana (FR); Precious Kitten; Pure Clan; Sealy Hill; Vacare; Visit (GB); Wait a While

Ladies Classic

Bear Now; Carriage Trail; Cocoa Beach (CHI); Ginger Punch; Hystericalady; Music Note; Santa Teresita; Zenyatta

Saturday races

Marathon

Add Heat; Big Booster; Booyah; Casino Drive; Cedar Mountain (IRE); Church Service; Delightful Kiss; Fairbanks; Jonesboro; King of Rome (IRE); Muhannak (IRE); Sixties Icon (GB); Spring House; Zappa

Turf Sprint

California Flag; Diabolical; Fleeting Spirit (IRE); Get Funky; Heros Reward; Idiot Proof; Mr. Nightlinger; One Union; Only Answer (GB); Rebellion (GB); Rouse the Cat; Salute the Count; Tropic Storm; True to Tradition

Dirt Mile

Albertus Maximus; First Defence; Jonesboro; Lewis Michael; Lord Admiral; Mast Track; My Pal Charlie; Pyro; Rebellion (GB); Surf Cat; Two Step Salsa; Well Armed

Mile

Awesome Gem; Bold Chieftain; Daytona (IRE); Kip Deville; Precious Kitten; Raven's Pass; Shakis (IRE); Thorn Song; U S Ranger; Ventura; War Monger; Whatsthescript (IRE); Goldikova (IRE)

Juevenile

Azul Leon; Believe in Hope; Bushranger (IRE); Coronet of a Baron; Elusive Bluff; Midshipman; Mine That Bird; Munnings; Pioneerof the Nile; Silent Valor; Square Eddie; Street Hero; Terrain; West Side

Juvenile Turf

Bittel Road; City Style; Coronet of a Baron; Del Conte; Elusive Bluff; Grand Adventure; Mine That Bird; Ninth Client; Paddy The Pro (IRE); Relatively Ready; Skipadate; Westphalia (IRE)

Sprint

Black Seventeen; Cost of Freedom; Fabulous Strike; Fatal Bullet; First Defence; In Summation; Indian Blessing; J Be K; Lewis Michael; Midnight Lute; Sing Baby Sing; Street Boss; Tropic Storm

Turf

Better Talk Now; Conduit (IRE); Dancing Forever; Eagle Mountain (GB); Grand Couturier (GB); Out of Control (BRZ); Red Giant; Red Rock Canyon (IRE); Red Rocks (IRE); Soldier of Fortune (IRE); Spring House; Winchester

Classic

Casino Drive; Champs Elysees (GB); Colonel John; Curlin; Duke of Marmalade (IRE); Go Between; Henrythenavigator; Mast Track; Pyro; Raven's Pass; Smooth Air; Student Council; Tiago; Well Armed

Division Rankings With Two Weeks and Counting

jshandler — Sun, 12 Oct 2008 17:23:00 GMT

With less than two weeks to go until the World Championships, now is a good time to look at some of the top contenders in each division. Obviously, there will be plenty of surprises when the pre-entries come out Thursday, so this is just a rough draft, if you will.

Right now, the biggest question marks are which Europeans will come over, and what races will they enter. Because of the synthetic surface, some which may have pointed to the Mile or Turf in years past may try the Classic. We’ll have to wait and see.

Be sure to check in all next week when I’ll analyze each division in-depth and later in the week, give out selections.

Friday, Oct. 24 races

Filly and Mare Sprint: Shaping up to be a deep and talented group.

1. Indian Blessing – Champion gets slight edge based on class edge, but she is by no means a shoe in. Is there any possibility she tries the boys?

2. Indyanne – TCA was very impressive considering splits she ran and what she had left in final sixteenth.

3. Intangaroo – Won three G1’s this year and nobody seems to know.

Watch out for: Lady Sprinter – A perfect 8-for-8 on dirt in Argentina; Will make U.S. debut in BC.

Juvenile Filly Turf: Doesn’t look all that intriguing now that European star Rainbow View is being pointed towards the Juvenile Fillies. We’ll see how it shakes out.

1. Maram – Miss Grillo winner looks as good as any right now.

2. C Karma – Never been off the board in five starts. Natalma winner makes first start outside of Woodbine.

3. Freedom Rings – Runner-up in a pair of stakes events.

Juvenile Fillies: Addition of European star would add a lot of intrigue.

1. Stardom Bound – Debutante and Oak Leaf wins were awesome.

1A. Rainbow View – Perfect 4-for-4 in England. If she runs, it could turn into a great stretch duel.

3. Sky Diva – Looks like the best on East Coast.

Watch out for Be Smart: Smarty Jones filly was second to Dream Empress in Alcibiades but has a lot of talent.

Filly and Mare Turf: No overwhelming favorite at this point. Betting should be wide-open.

1. Mauralakana – Beaten last out but tough to argue with the year she’s had. Tries every time.

2. Wait a While – Form as a good as anyone right now.

3. Black Mamba – New Zealand-bred has never been off the board.

Watch out for: Ventura – Has kind of fallen off the radar since Woodbine Mile. I wouldn’t forget about her.

Ladies Classic: Might be the most anticipated race all weekend, even without Proud Spell. Should be special.

1. Zenyatta – Still perfect and gets the stay home. Could be Horse of the Year if everything falls right.

2. Music Note – Will have to beat older horses, but she has talent to do it.

3. Hystericalady – Was soundly beaten by Zenyata and synthetic is not her best surface, but I still like her here.

3A. Ginger Punch – Still the champ.

Watch out for: Carriage Trail – Stakes record in Spinster while drifting badly. Is she set up to bounce? Time will tell.

Saturday, Oct. 25 races

Marathon: A shame Evening Attire was retired. He would have added a lot to this event. With only a few preps for this division, we know little at this point. My guess is we’ll see a few Europeans enter, which should spice things up.

1. Delightful Kiss – I guess you have to give him the early edge based on Fall Championship and All American Stakes, both on artificial surfaces.

2. Big Booster – One of two probables for Mike Mitchell. Has won two in a row and is plenty fresh.

3. Dominican – Darrin Miller has not yet committed to sending last year’s Blue Grass winner.

Watch out for: Frost Giant – IEAH is now saying Suburban winner might be entered. One European name to keep in mind is Sixtees Icon.

Turf Sprint: Really won’t know too much until Thursday.

1. Mr. Nightlinger – One thing we do know is he’ll be the favorite. Enters on five-race win streak.

2. True to Tradition – Nearctic and Turf Monster winner in good form for Scott Lake.

3. Diabolical – Last year’s Vanderbilt winner ran a good one two weeks ago at Ascot.

Watch Out for: Salute the Count – Won at Saratoga last month and 8-year-old Dutrow trainee is always in the mix.

Dirt Mile: Looks like California horses have the edge here.

1. Well Armed – Seems that Eoin Harty is leaning towards Mile instead of Classic. Will be tough if that is the case.

2. Surf Cat – The old man always gives his best. Cutback could be to his liking.

3. Tale of Ekati – Ran a career-best 104 Beyer in Jerome. Could be the best spot for the 3-year-old.

Watch out for: Albertus Maximus – Improving colt set one-mile Del Mar track record this year.

Mile: Looks like some of the top Europeans are leaning towards the Classic. We’ll have to wait and see.

1. Kip Deville – Willing to excuse his Woodbine Mile. Last year’s winner has to get benefit of the doubt.

2. Goldikova – According to DRF, talented filly will try Mile instead of Filly and Mare Turf. She’s won consecutive group I mile events in France.

3. Thorn Song – Probably won’t have it as easy as he did at Keeneland.

Watch out for: Spirit One – If speedy Arlington Million winner enters, could ruin things for Thorn Song.

Juvenile: You have to assume that Vineyard Haven is not going. With Charitable Man out and Run Away and Hide a likely defection, things seem wide-open.

1. Square Eddie – Impressive Futurity winner on top right now by default.

2. Munnings – Second in Champagne, but likely to improve.

3. Street Hero – Norfolk winner never off the board in five starts.

Watch Out for: Midshipman – Second in Norfolk. Can’t discount a Baffert 2-year-old. Also, Pioneerof the Nile, who will likely move off the turf, could be an upset possibility for Bill Mott if he draws in.

Juvenile Turf: Another one where we won’t know too much until entry time.

1. Grand Adventure – I was impressed with gutsy Summer victory.

2. Bittel Road – Undefeated and looking good for Pletcher.

3. Jukebox Jury – Irish colt rallied from last in Royal Lodge.

Watch out for: Skipadate – Tough luck so far, but he has talent. Also, Duke of Homberg, a winner in France, could improve off fourth-place Pilgrim, which was his U.S. debut.

Sprint: Injuries to Benny the Bull, Abraaj and Bustin Stones have opened the division up.

1. Fabulous Strike – Is fast as lighting and has a ton of heart. Will he like the Pro-Ride?

2. Street Boss – Likely favorite has been tremendous this year.

3. Cost of Freedom – Ancient Title winner has won three straight.

Watch out for: Midnight Lute – Baffert says last year’s Sprint winner is ready to roll.

Turf: As always, Europeans will play a big part here although we still don’t know who is coming, let alone who will opt for the Mile. In the U.S., there isn’t a lot separating top few.

1. Grand Couturier – Couldn’t be coming into the race any better.

2. Red Rocks – The 2006 winner will come in with 3 ½ months rest.

3. Red Giant – Set North American turf record for 10 furlongs in Clement Hirsch. Can’t disregard.

Watch out for: All of the Europeans. Henrythenavigator and Raven’s Pass seem to be pointing towards Classic, but there is still Soldier of Fortune and Eagle Mountain. Also, I haven’t heard about Archipenko yet. Duke of Marmalade is definitely coming, but will it be for the Classic or Turf?

Classic: Full picture won’t be complete until we know for sure about Curlin, and which Europeans will enter.

1. Curlin – Will have another work on Pro-Ride Monday. You would think connections should be able to tell us by then.

2. Big Brown – Continues to work on grass. Looking forward to seeing him at Santa Anita.

3. Go Between – Might be the best of the West.

Watch out for: Colonel John, Casino Drive, Student Council and at the risk of being repetitive, any European.

Curlin vs. Big Brown - Let the Countdown Begin

jshandler — Sun, 28 Sep 2008 19:33:00 GMT

Well, race fans...it looks like we're going to get our wish. After all the talking, hoping, and back-and-forth between Jess Jackson and Mike Iavarone, the showdown of the year is now very likely. Curlin vs. Big Brown. For all the marbles.

After Curlin's record-breaking victory in the Jockey Club Gold Cup Jess Jackson confirmed that Curlin would be shipping to California on Monday to prepare for his Breeders' Cup Classic defense - Pro-Ride and all. Give Jackson credit for changing his mind. Even though he is not excited about the artificial surface, he knows the best horse in the world belongs at the Breeders' Cup and it will be great for the sport. He also knew he had to be there to have any chance at Horse of the Year honors. Kudos Jess.

As we touched on before, this could wind up being the deepest Classic in history. In addition to Curlin and Big Brown, the probables are littered with superstars - Commentator, Well Armed, Go Between, Casino Drive, Duke of Marmalade, Henrythenavigator, New Approach, Pyro, Student Council and a few more. If even 75% of these horses go to post it will be one of the most anticipated races in recent memory. And a great thing for the industry.

There is plenty of time to analyze the Classic, but before we do that let's take a look back at a super weekend of racing. I came away very impressed with a number of horses. All those who continue to complain about the Pro-Ride, stop your negativety. This is going to a great Breeders' Cup.

First of all, Curlin's Gold Cup win was solid. He didn't have a perfect trip but still found enough to run down Wanderin Boy in the stretch - bad conditions and all. I thought Wanderin Boy would run a big race and he did. Curlin was just too much. And on to California he goes.

Goodwood - Well Armed showed me a lot. He held off three very good horses in the stretch and defeated a talented field. Give Aaron Gryder credit for a perfect stalking trip. That was probably the difference for Well Armed. Because of his closing kick and preference for the artificial surfaces he will have to be respected in the Classic.

Lady's Secret - What can you say about Zenyata other than she is spectactular? She only beat three but it was the way she did it. She went wide on the turn and went by like Hystericalady like she was standing still. In case you haven't noticed, Hystericalady is a pretty good mare. Nobody is supposed to go by her like that. I know her connections have said she will go to the Distaff, but wouldn't it be exciting if she ran against the boys in the Classic? That would make an already great race the most anticipated showdown in...well, maybe ever.

Flower Bowl - Speaking of defeating good females, how about Dynaforce repelling Mauralakana? She finally put it all together. It looked like Mauralakana was going to go right by Dyanforce around the turn but she was turned back emphatically. Dynaforce might be getting good at the right time. She will be a definite factor in the Filly & Mare Turf.

Vosburgh - Take nothing away from Black Seventeen. He ran a great race and surprised many. But I came away very impressed with Fabulous Strike in a losing effort. He ran a :21.75 quarter and :44.31 half in the slop while being pressed the whole way by J Be K and First Defence. Then he still has enough to fight Black Seventeen tooth and nail in the final furlong. It was a gritty effort. Despite all his physical problems and lack of seasoning over the past year, if he gets into the BC Sprint Fabulous Strike will be a huge factor.

Oak Leaf - This was perhaps the most impressive performance of the day. If you haven't watched the replay of what Stardom Bound did, do yourself a favor and take a look. She breaks slowly, is next to last in a full field of 12 after a half-mile and comes about 10-wide into the lane. That explosion she showed in the stretch is very rare, especially from a 2-year-old filly. She is special and will be the probable favorite in the BC Juvenile Fillies. Mike Smith called her his "baby Zenyata." Watch out.

Turf Classic - Grand Couturier took advantage of very slow splits, but still had to come wide into the stretch. When he did, it was a thing of beauty. He showed a powerful turn of foot to lock up his second consecutive grade I win. He proved he can win away from Saratoga. He is for real.

Clement Hirsch - No way I could leave off a horse that set a new world record, and that's exactly what Red Giant did. His time of 1:57.16 broke a record that had stood for more than 17 years. Talk about impressive. Out of Control wasn't half bad in second either. The BC Turf should be one heck of a race too.

I'd like to hear who you thought was impressive on Saturday.

All of a Sudden, BC Classic Full of Intrigue

jshandler — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 20:32:00 GMT

Wasn't it just a few weeks ago that we were all complaining about the Breeders' Cup Classic lacking intrigue?

Now, if everything falls into place, this might be one of the most highly-anticipated Classics of all-time.

Of course, a lot has to be decided between now and Oct. 25, most importantly, whether or not reigning Horse of the Year Curlin will go to California. But after Jess Jackson's recent comments, it now seems there is a 50-50 chance that Curlin will head to Santa Anita to race on Pro-Ride.

The Classic looks like it will get another boost with Commentator, who will run in the Massachusetts Handicap this weekend and then point towards the big race. That was confirmed by his owner, Tracy Farmer, at a national media teleconference Sept. 16. Previously, it was unclear which race Commentator would shoot for.

"He's never run on synthetics, but he trained on it at Keeneland and absolutely loved it," Farmer said. "I'd say if we go - if I can get our trainer there - it would be in the Classic. There is a question about Santa Anita and its new track, but all the stuff I've heard so far has been positive. We'd love to run against Big Brown and Curlin if he is in the shape he was in the Whitney. He's got the fastest Beyer under a mile and over a mile."

Farmer's comment about "if I can get our trainer there" was in reference to Nick Zito, who is not a big proponent of synthetics. But when asked who would make the final decision on whether to send Commentator to the Breeders' Cup, Farmer said, "I would say the owner of the horse makes that decision."

Assuming Commentator runs well at the MassCap and comes out of it fine, the Classic field could potentially have three huge names - Big Brown, Curlin and Commentator. And that's just the beginning.

Also decent possibilities for the $5 million event are Travers winner Colonel John, Pacific Classic winner Go Between, San Diego and San Antonio Handicap winner Well Armed, Japanese ace Casino Drive, European turf stars Henrythenavigator and Duke of Marmalade, Travers runner-up Mambo in Seattle, the always game Student Council, battled-tested Tiago, talented 3-year-old Pyro, and don't forget about the possibility of undefeated filly Zenyatta. Also on Sept. 17, Larry Jones said Philip Iselin winner Honest Man might be pointed towards the Classic.

Now, if that doesn't get your juices flowing, you're not a racing fan!

There are still many questions to be answered in the next five weeks, but at least now the Classic seems to be back on everyone's radar.

You see, I told you all this complaining about the synthetic surface would play itself out. Just sit back, relax and enjoy...

Are You Excited About the Monmouth Stakes?

jshandler — Fri, 12 Sep 2008 16:53:00 GMT

I have mixed feeling about Big Brown racing in the newly-created Monmouth Stakes this weekend.

On one hand, I am happy to see the Derby winner running at all. After the Belmont, most of us probably thought there was little chance he would ever see the racetrack again, especially considering the fragility of his feet. I've said this many times before, I give Mike Iavarone a lot of credit for continuing to run Big Brown since he really has nothing to gain and everything to lose, financially speaking. So in this respect, I guess we should all be happy that he is even racing at all.

I can also appreciate the connections wanting to run Big Brown on turf as a prep for the Breeders' Cup Classic. Those tender feet are probably worse than they are letting on. Rick Dutrow admitted the other day that "he's not a horse that wakes up ready to roll." Those lingering quarter cracks are a very real issue to contend with and the grass is simply an easier surface for Big Brown to run on. I get it.

Finally, I understand the main goal here is the Classic. That is the race which will decide Horse of the Year and carries a $5 million purse. Everything between now and then doesn't matter much to Iavarone and Co. They want their ideal six weeks of rest heading into the big race. I understand.

Admitting all of the above, part of me still thinks the connections took the easy way out the second half of his 3-year-old season and that should count against them. First, they showed up at the Haskell and completely bypassed Saratoga. That is questionable. Saratoga is where champions go.

This latest move to turf I am okay with, but if that is the path you want to take, at least show up in a graded stakes race. There were plenty of options - The Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at Belmont and the Clement Hirsch Turf Championship at Santa Anita, both on Sept. 27. Or, if they wanted a true prep for the Classic, how about the Goodwood on the same surface he will see in October? Four weeks of rest should be plenty for the Classic, despite what Dutrow says.

Heck, I would have even been fine with the Kentucky Cup Turf this weekend at Kentucky Downs. At least it's a grade III and I'm sure Kentucky Downs would have increased the purse, like Monmouth did.

I would have been okay with any of those options. Instead, they had Monmouth create a new race for them, one that really is a just a glorified allowance race with a big purse. There are a couple proven horses in here, but no grade I winners and nothing Big Brown can't destroy if he is on the top of his game. I have been critical of Curlin's connections in the past as well, but at least when they moved him to turf they chose an established race. There is something to be said for that.

I expect the Derby winner and probable 3-year-old champion to show up against the best. The Haskell wasn't the spot. The Travers was. The Monmouth Stakes isn't the spot. Santa Anita or Belmont was.

I'm wondering how many of you feel about the race this weekend. After all, we are getting to see Big Brown run on turf, which should be fun no matter where it is or what the race is called. But are you excited? Or did this spot turn you off? I have mixed feelings.

If you are planning on betting the race, here is my take on "That Handicapping Show."

No More Challenges Jess, Just Show Up

jshandler — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 17:28:00 GMT

Okay, after the peculiar back-and-forth repartee between Jess Jackson and Mike Iavarone that was carried out by the media on Wednesday, I am officially annoyed with the Big Brown vs. Curlin situation.

And after all the bickering that has taken place, it finally appears that the two most popular horses in America will never meet.

It is a very sad situation for one simple reason: In the end, not only does the industry lose, but so do the fans. Had the two camps come to terms and had it been marketed correctly, this is a match-up that would have done wonders for a sport that could certainly use a boost in popularity. It could have been huge.

Here is my official take on the situation:

Jess Jackson should stop issuing challenges and meet Big Brown in The Breeders' Cup Classic.

As many of you know I have been critical of Big Brown's connections in the past, but in this case I cannot fault them. The Woodward and the Jockey Club Gold Cup, while certainly both races that seem attractive on paper, would not be the right fit for Big Brown.

The Haskell took a lot out of Big Brown, which both Rick Dutrow and Iavarone have already admitted, and they feel coming back in four weeks for the Woodward would be too soon. Remember, he went through a grueling Triple Crown stretch and he has chronically bad feet. They know their horse better than we do. We have to give them the benefit of the doubt on that one.

The Gold Cup would give him eight weeks of rest, but it would also be less than a month until the Classic, which doesn't make sense either. Ideally, they want more time than that. Again, you can't fault them.

I am not sure what spot they will pick for Big Brown. It is likely to be much softer than either of the aforementioned races and on the surface it will seem like they are ducking Curlin. But if Iavarone wants a turf prep for his horse, that is his right. Admittedly, it does make more sense to run on turf as a prep for a synthetic race, as opposed to dirt. Remember, the goal all along has been the Classic. They have been upfront about that from Day 1.

Bottom line: Horse of the Year championships in this day and age are decided in the Breeders' Cup Classic. Having the race on a synthetic surface is not ideal for everyone, especially since Santa Anita's will be brand new, but it is what it is. It would be the first race on the surface for both horses, so neither would have an advantage. Synthetics are here to stay and Jackson needs to realize this and embrace it.

Somehow, the word "synthetic" has become a four-letter word to many. I realize it makes handicapping more challenging and last year's slow-playing Del Mar surface turned off some. Constantly hearing the gripes of some of the top trainers who don't care for it hasn't helped either. But the reason it was created in the first place is because it is safer for horses, and early research has shown that it does reduce catastrophic injuries. I'm tired of all the complaining about synthetics. Deal with it. It's not going away.

Curlin won last year's Classic in the muddy soup at Monmouth. I'd like to ask Jackson if he thinks that surface was any safer for his horse than Santa Anita's Pro-Ride will be. The George Washington tragedy was a pretty good indication that it wasn't.

The reality is, they are spending millions to redo Santa Anita's ailing surface and will have plenty of time to test the track at the beginning of the meet. Does anyone really believe they would risk having racing's biggest day on a track that is not safe for horses? Not a chance.

If Jackson plans it right, Curlin will have plenty of time to train over the new surface. All the horses will, including Henrythenavigator, who some label as the world's best horse and is being pointed towards the Classic. Aidan O'Brien, the world's best trainer, doesn't seem bothered by the surface.

I don't criticize Jackson for trying to put the Curlin-Big Brown match-up together in New York. I genuinely believe he would like to be able to share it with the fans. He seems like a good sportsman, has the best interest of the industry at heart and is in touch with what people want. On the flip side, he needs to realize that the Breeders' Cup is the international showcase. It is racing's biggest stage and has been for a quarter of a century. It is the most logical place for the two stars to meet.

The surface will be safe. Get over your aversion to synthetics and show up in California. Everyone wants to see it.

Division Leaders

jshandler — Tue, 12 Aug 2008 21:26:00 GMT

We're now a little more than five weeks into the Breeders' Cup season and the divisions are beginning to take shape. The continuing story thus far is how the male division seemingly gets more ordinary every day while the female division continues to get more exciting. Unless this Big Brown-Curlin thing actually happens, there is no doubt the Ladies Classic will be much more interesting come late October. I forget, what day is the Ladies Classic being run? Never mind.

Anyway, with about two more months of Breeders' Challenge events left to go, I thought it would be a good idea to take a look at a few of the divisions. Let's do our best to rank the top 3 American-based horses in each one. Here goes:

Classic

1. Curlin - You still have to give him the edge even though we have no idea if Jess Jackson will send him to Santa Anita.

2. Big Brown - Looking forward to seeing the spot they pick for him. Something tells me it will be the Pennsylvania Derby.

3. Commentator - He ran the year's top Beyer (119) so you have to respect him. Looks like he'll go to the Mass Cap next month and point towards the Classic. But can he get 1 1/4 miles?

Don't forget about: Henrythenavigator - He's won four consecutive group I races and some say he is the best horse in the world. Aidan O'Brian says he will point towards this race, which should spice things up.

Ladies Classic

1. Ginger Punch - She's the champ. Until someone proves otherwise, I'm ranking her above Zenyatta.

2 . Zenyatta - Undefeated and getting better. Has a huge advantage because of the synthetics.

3. Music Note - Looking forward to this weekend's Alabama. She might be the best of them all.

Don't forget about: Hystericalady. She lost by a nose in the '07 Distaff and is even better this year.

Tough for me to leave out Proud Spell and Little Belle, but what can you do?

Turf

1. Red Rocks - Won the best U.S. turf race this year.

2. Gio Ponti - Hasn't faced grade I company yet, but a star in the making.

3. Einstein - Had a poor start in the Million, but the loss was more than just that.

Don't forget about: Any European. The Americans will have their hands full against all of them. All three that took money in Arlington Million might be back for BC.

Filly & Mare Turf

1. Mauralakana - Gotta love her. She just knows how to get it done.

2. Forever Together - Diana was no fluke.

3. Black Mamba - Not BC nominated, but owners will probably fork over the cash.

Don't forget about: J'ray: She narrowly lost to Mauralakana twice.

Sprint

1. Benny the Bull: All he does is win. The way he powers down the stretch is breathtaking.

2. J Be K - Has never lost at less than a mile.

3. Street Boss - That's five in a row for the synthetic specialist.

Don't forget about: Kodiak Kowboy: Highly-touted as a 2-year-old, he might be coming into his own.

Mile

1. Kip Deville: Pure miler is lightly-raced this year, but will be primed and ready for Santa Anita.

2. Daytona -Tired in American Handicap. A mile might be his best distance.

3. Monzante - Just beginning to hit his best stride.

Don't forget about: Red Giant: Very impressive off a 10-month layoff. Not sure what his best distance is, but Pletcher will figure it out.

More division rankings to come later...

Curlin vs. Big Brown in BC Turf May Be the Only Way They Meet

jshandler — Wed, 06 Aug 2008 01:01:00 GMT

Curlin vs. Big Brown: Every racing fan in the nation wants to see it. It's a match-up that would be great for the sport and would give the industry a huge shot in the arm.

The only problem is, with every passing day the chances of it happening seem to grow slimmer.

From where I sit, the only realistic way it happens is Oct. 25 in the Breeders' Cup Turf. That's right, the Turf, not the Classic.

Based on the comments of Jess Jackson and Mike Iavarone over the past two days, here's what we know:

Curlin will go in the Woodward on Aug. 30. Most of us are in agreement that this is a logical place for Big Brown to meet Curlin, as it gives him four weeks rest and it's at Saratoga, the best meet in the world. The only problem is, Iavarone said he is looking for a turf race for Big Brown, some time in mid-September. I have yet to hear his reasoning for this, but can only assume it is to prep him for a run on the synthetic at Santa Anita and possibly to ease his troubled feet.

If Big Brown goes in a turf race in mid-September that takes out the possibility of the two meeting in Curlin's next tilt, which based on Jackson's comments today, could be the Jockey Club Gold Cup on Sept. 27. He also gave a few other possibilities, including the Sept. 20 Mass Cap, but either way, he won't be meeting Big Brown in September. The timing just isn't right.

If you heard Jackson speak today, which I did, you will know that the possibility of him running Curlin on the synthetic Pro-Ride at Santa Anita is very slim. Here is a little bit of what he said:

"I'd like to go (to the Classic). I'm a native Californian. But it's on an untested surface. It causes great concern. Why run a horse like Curlin that is on a surface that's undefined? We've won the Classic - been there, done that. (If we did go), I would love to have a prep race on the exact surface, but it doesn't appear we will be able to. We would probably only be able to exercise on it a few times."

He is scared to death to race Curlin on that surface. He made that very clear in his lengthy media conference. Could he have a change of heart? Sure, anything is possible. But don't count on it.

Where does all this leave us? The only logical place is the Breeders Cup Turf. For it to happen, Big Brown will need to win his mid-September race and look good doing it. That would give Iavarone all the confidence he needs to stick Big Brown in the BC Turf, for what would be his final race. It would also be more acceptable to Jackson, who was clear today when he said Curlin could very easily go back to racing on turf, despite his losing effort in the Man o' War.

It would also be very attractive to both because of the historical ramifications. Can you imagine if the Derby and Preakness winner won his his final career race in the BC Turf and beat the reigning Horse of the Year doing it?Or, if the 2007 BC Classic winner ended his career by winning the 2008 BC Turf, defeating the probable 3-year-old champion doing it? Both would be unprecidented and amazing accomplishments.

Other than Iavarone having a change of heart and deciding to run Big Brown in the Woodward, I can see no other way that these two meet. And if that is the case, I think I speak for all of us when I say, what a shame that would be.

What Did We Learn From Big Brown's Haskell?

jshandler — Mon, 04 Aug 2008 11:35:00 GMT

It is not often that a horse wins a $1 million grade I race and people still walk away scratching their heads.

Was it a good performance or not?

It is a difficult question to answer. Then again, we should not have expected anything less. From the very start, everything about Big Brown seems to be complicated.

On Sunday at Monmouth Park, Big Brown won the Haskell Invitational, as he collared front-running Coal Play inside the sixteenth-pole to win by 1 3/4 lengths. In one respect, Big Brown did exactly what his connections wanted him to do - rebound from his disappointment in the Belmont Stakes and restore his reputation.

On the other hand, it was not the visually impressive performance that many expected - including trainer Rick Dutrow Jr. - and it was far from a resounding win. In fact, the horse he struggled to beat, Coal Play, had only maiden and allowance wins to show for his eight-start career.

So, what did we learn?

For one, the most important thing is that Big Brown did what he had to do to continue his racing career. Had he come up empty down the stretch, as it appeared for a short while that he was going to do, there is a decent possibility that we would have seen the last of the dual classic winner. After hearing Mike Iavarone afterward, it seems fairly certain that Big Brown will race at least twice more before his career ends. In that respect, it was an important win.

Also, after looking at the replays several times, I give Big Brown a little more credit than I did while watching the race live. One must take into consideration that he was entering off a nearly two-month layoff and won despite coming off a last place finish in his most recent race, something no horse had ever done in the Haskell.

More importantly, after seeing the fractions and final time, it must be pointed out that Coal Play ran a terrific race. As stated above, Coal Play had done nothing prior to this race for people to say he was anything but an average 3-year-old. But you can take nothing away from the fact that he ran a :23 opening quarter, :46 2/5 half-mile, 1:10 4/5 for six furlongs and 1:35 mile. They are very solid splits. Anyone, let alone Big Brown, would have a difficult time running down a horse who runs those numbers. And the final time of 1:48.31 was respectable.

And while it was obvious that Coal Play was leg weary in that final furlong, give Big Brown a lot of credit for having the grit to run by him when he was obviously not at his best.

On the flip side of this debate, anyone who watched the Haskell could see that Big Brown did not have the same explosiveness that he showed in every one of his other races (save the Belmont, of course). Kent Desormeaux certainly did not have a "freak" under him, as he has in the past. He had a very good race horse that used his talent and experience to get the job done. And as all of know by now, he got the job done against a very average field.

So what did Big Brown's Haskell win really tell us? Other than it appears he has regressed a bit from the first half of the year, not much. I am going to need to see him run these final two races before I make my final judgment on him. I will also need to see what Coal Play does the rest of the year to really see who Big Brown beat.

The early rumors are that Iavarone will send him to either the Massachusetts Handicap or the Pennsylvania Derby (Wow, imagine Big Brown coming to Philly Park). But this won't be decided for a week or more. In the meantime, let's do what we do best - analyze this performance until we're blue in the face.