Breeders Cup Chat : Breeders' Cup

Contest Winner and a Breeders' Cup Wrap

jshandler — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 19:07:00 GMT

Some final thoughts on the World Championships, mainly from a handicapping perspective......(read more)

Don't Read Too Much Into Works

jshandler — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 22:24:00 GMT

"It was perfect."

"He's as fit and sharp as he's ever been."

"He's ready to roll."

These were the comments of Chip Woolley, Eoin Harty, and Bob Baffert, respectively, right after each of their BC Classic starters turned in their final works. Woolley, who has Mine That Bird, Harty (Colonel John), and Baffert (Richard's Kid), all sounded extremely confident that their horses would run the race of their lives on Nov. 7.

Later, I ran into Helen Pitts and she too was optimistic that Einstein would turn in a big one based on his recent training.

It was at that point that I bumped into a colleague and he and I shared the same thought: Has any trainer ever publicly said that their horse's work "wasn't what they wanted" or "left something to be desired?" If they have, I can't remember.

My point is, often times we tend to make too much of works, especially during big events like the Kentucky Derby and the Breeders' Cup. Each one is picked over in critical fashion, and the fact is, most times you'll find observers saying the same thing: "Wow, he looked great." Or, "he's getting over the track really well."

From a handicapping perspective, the works are often overrated. Baffert said it best: "I'm happy the way that he's been working, but you know, it's not the way they look in the morning that matters; it's who shows up on race day."

In the Classic especially, we are all looking for any edge we can get. It's one of the toughest Classics to handicap in a long time. There are so many variables with each horse--Zenyatta going against males at a new distance, Gio Ponti switching from turf, the Euros running on synthetics for the first time, Mine That Bird and Summer Bird facing elders, and so on and so forth. Works are part of the equation, but they are not everything. You will need to go much deeper with your handicapping in this race, and then you'll still need some luck to win.

For what it's worth, in my opinion, Richard's Kid's work was visually more impressive than anyone. He looked like an express train in the stretch.

But then again, you know what they say--all of them looked great.

___________

Quote of the morning went to Baffert, who when commenting on the time it took him to acclimate his training to synthetic surfaces said: "The first year they put Polytrack in at Del Mar I thought I was going to have to quit training and get a job selling shoes at Nordstrom."

Back tomorrow afternoon with thoughts on the draw and more...

Breeders' Cup Prop Bets

jshandler — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 18:43:00 GMT

One of our regular bloggers, Matthew W, gave me a good idea for a fun blog: Breeders' Cup prop bets.

How many of you fellow gamblers enjoy playing the multitude of prop bets during the Super Bowl? I know I do. For those of you not familiar, prop bets are unique, individual bets that are made available during marquee events.

During the Super Bowl, you can bet on anything from whether the opening coin toss will be heads or tails, to how many commercials there will be, to actual game bets, like which player will score the first touchdown or who will have the most rushing yards. They are very fun and sometimes an easy way to make (or lose) a lot of money.

Prop bets for the Breeders' Cup seems so natural. Not only are there 14 races with the best trainers, jockeys, and horses in the world, but since we're all gambling on the races anyway, why not add a few more enticing wagers? This year, the Breeders' Cup has added what can be considered a prop bet to their official wagering menu--giving bettors a chance to wager on what jockey they think will win the most races over the weekend.

I will take it a step further. Here are list of prop bets I created. I came up with all bets and lines. Feel free to throw out more of your own and tell me which of these you would wager on.

Head-to-Head Props

Which jockey will win more Breeders' Cup races?

Garrett Gomez vs. Rafael Bejarano

Which owner will win more Breeders' Cup races?

Juddmonte vs. Godolphin

Which trainer will win more Breeders' Cup races?

John Sadler vs. Ken McPeek (each with six pre-entered)

Who will have more Breeders' Cup wins?

Todd Pletcher trained horses (12 pre-entered) vs. Godolphin owned horses (14 pre-entered)

Which horse will win by a larger margin?

Goldikova vs. Ventura (both horses must win)

Which horse will finish ahead of the other:

Einstein vs. Col. John

Mine That Bird vs. Quality Road

Which post position number will produce the most Breeders' Cup winners?

Over/Under props

(For those of you not familiar, an over/under number is set and you must wager whether the correct answer will be over that number or under that number).

Largest margin of victory in any one Breeders' Cup race:

Over/under: 5 ½ lengths

Number of Breeders' Cup wins for Bob Baffert:

Over/under 1 ½ (Obviously you can't have ½ of a win, but the lines are set this way so that there are no ties)

Number of Breeders' Cup wins by Todd Pletcher:

Over/under: 2 ½

Number of Breeders' Cup wins by European-based horses:

Over/under: 4 ½

Number of Breeders' Cup wins by American-based horses:

Over/under: 9 ½

Number of Breeders' Cup wins by Garrett Gomez:

Over/under: 3 ½

How many horses will be repeat Breeders' Cup winners from last year?

Over/under: 2 ½

Combined number of lengths all 14 Breeders' Cup winners will win by:

Over/under: 32 ½ lengths (a win by a nose, head or neck will count as a half-length)

Number of Breeders' Cup winners bred in states other than Kentucky:

Over/under: 4 ½

Number of horses to win Breeders' Cup races while wearing blinkers:

Over/Under: 5 ½

Total number of scratches for the 14 Breeders' Cup races:

Over/under: 4 ½ (starts after the final entries are drawn on Nov. 3)

Number of Breeders' Cup winners at odds of 10-1 or more:

Over/Under: 4 ½

Number of Breeders' Cup winners sent off as favorites:

Over/under: 6 ½

Biggest longshot Breeders' Cup winner:

Over/under: 22-1

As the "bookie" I'll hold all fictional bets. lol. Enjoy...

Live Blog - Friday, October 30th at NOON

Blood-Horse Staff — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 15:55:00 GMT

Breeders' Cup Chat Live

Pre-Entries Are Out; BC Contest Underway

jshandler — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 17:00:00 GMT

The Breeders' Cup pre-entries are out. Here is a complete list for each of the 14 races.

I'm interested to get your thoughts on some of them. Anything surprise you? Any disappointments?

I have a few thoughts. First, as far as some of the horses cross-entered, I wasn't too surprised to see Zenyatta has first preference in the Classic. I had been hearing that they were leaning that way, and it seems she could be taking on the boys. I'm sure we'll all have plenty to say about this in the coming days.

I also noted that Girolamo has first preference in the Classic. Of course, Godolphin has four pre-entered in the Dirt Mile (including Girolamo), so this wasn't a total surprise. But if Girolamo does goes in the Classic, he could be a wild card. The horse is super talented. I will be anxious to see how he handles the Pro-Ride next week.

Other mild surprises as far as cross-entered horses are Mastercraftsman, who has first preference in the Dirt Mile, not the Classic, for Aidan O'Brien, and Rainbow View, who has first preference in the Ladies Classic, not the Filly & Mare Turf.

I'm not sold on Quality Road in the Classic, but Todd Pletcher holds a strong hand in the juvenile races. I wouldn't be surprised to see him bag two of the juvenile events. Aikenite and Eskendereya are both major players in the Juvenile, Interactif will be the favorite in the Juvenile Turf, Devil May Care has a chance in the Juvenile Fillies, and he could have two in the Juvenile Fillies Turf. In all, Pletcher has 12 horses pre-entered.

We're only nine days away now, let's start the debating.

Also, as far as the Breeders' Cup handicapping contest, I decided to extend the deadline for picks to Nov. 4, which will allow people to see the final draws and determine where horses like Zenyatta will go. Make sure you have your final picks in by midnight Pacific on Nov. 4. Email picks to jshandler@bloodhorse.com. Again, here are the rules:

1) Pick the winner and second place finisher in each of the 14 BC races.

2) The final tally will be based on a $2 win/$2 place bet in each race. At the end of the 14 races we will add up all the payouts and the winner will be the person with the most money in their bankroll.

3) In the event of an unlikely tie, the tiebreaker goes to the person who has the most money in the BC Classic.

*Note: The scoring is not complicated, but to be clear if you pick, let's say, Einstein to win the BC Classic and he finishes second, you get no money for that pick. He would have to win. Or, if you pick Forever Together to finish second in the F&M Turf and she wins, you will only get her second place money. Understand?

Also, I'll have another blog this weekend, and one when I get to Cali early next week. Don't forget the live blogs begin on Wednesday, Nov. 4 and will go through Saturday.

Sea the Stars Retirement "Unfair" to Racing

jshandler — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 16:12:00 GMT

Like every racing fan and person looking forward to the Breeders' Cup, I was disappointed to hear the news today that Sea the Stars is being retired.

When I first heard, I was saddened but not surprised. Then I read the comments by trainer John Oxx and became annoyed.

"We feel it is unfair to keep him going any further given his unprecedented record of achievement in the last six months," Oxx said. "He's come out of the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe in his usual good form. He is fit and healthy and has been cantering since the race."

Anyone else shake their head at this statement? Never mind the part about Sea the Stars being retired as a 3-year-old while completely healthy. The comment about it being "unfair to keep him going" is the laugher.

Unfair? You just said the horse is in his "usual good form." What is so "unfair" about racing a horse that loves to race? Isn't that what they were bred to do?

Listen, I'm not naïve. I know it is all about money. The horse is worth more retired than if he would win 20 straight group I races in a row. I know this. But don't offend us by saying it is "unfair" to race him. If it was so unfair, why did you send him to France to for the Arc for his sixth race in five months? If he would have lost that race, I bet you it wouldn't have been "unfair" to send him to the U.S. for the Breeders' Cup.

I guess I'm so opinionated on this subject because I believe early retirement more than anything else is keeping horse racing from attracting new fans. You can blame synthetic tracks, medication, poor leadership and marketing, or anything else you want on the decline of racing, but I believe our superstars being retired as 3-year-olds hurts as much as all of them. How are new fans supposed to get attached to the sport when our best horses race seven times and are retired at the peak of their careers?

Think about it. How popular would football be if Tom Brady retired after he won the Super Bowl? Basketball if Kobe Bryant retired after he won a championship? Baseball after Albert Pujols won the World Series? I know horses are much more fragile than human athletes and the analogy is somewhat skewed, but you get my point.

Until we figure out how horses can be worth as much on the racetrack as they can in the breeding shed, it will be harder and harder for the sport to attract new fans. It's as simple as that.

Look, the Breeders' Cup Classic will be exciting with or without Sea the Stars. I'll be just fine handicapping the race as it comes up. But without him and Rachel Alexandra--maybe the two best and most popular horses in the world--the World Championships just lost another opportunity to attract new fans.

That is "unfair."

Horse of the Year - Rachel Isn't a Lock Yet

jshandler — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 18:58:00 GMT

It doesn't matter what month it is on the calendar, Horse of the Year debate is always fun. And since some of you brought it up on the previous blog, let's examine it a little deeper.

Before we do, let me preface this by saying what we are doing here is pure speculation. There are a ton of ‘what ifs' in these scenarios and we are assuming many things. We won't solve anything here (do we ever?), but since the goal of this blog is to have healthy debate, let's take a stab at this thing.

This is what we know: Rachel Alexandra will not be going to the Breeders' Cup because it is on "plastic," according to her owner Jess Jackson. Ok, fine Jess. By choosing not to go to California, however, you are leaving the door open for someone else to steal Horse of the Year. How, you ask? Well, let me start the speculation.

For argument sake, let's assume Rachel wins the Haskell and then Jackson sends her to the Alabama, where she dominates again. Are those two wins enough to lock up the award for her? Not in my opinion. If he decides to bypass the Travers, in my opinion, Rachel may have to do something else to hold off some of the other candidates I will mention in a moment.

What else does Rachel have to do in the aforementioned scenario? Well, she may have to beat older horses, something she has not done yet. Though she has been simply dominating every time out, the 3-year-old class, both fillies and males, isn't exactly the strongest group we've ever seen. If Rachel isn't going to the BC, she may need to win a race against older horses, perhaps the Oct. 3 Beldame at Belmont.

All this is a moot point, in my opinion, if Jackson sends her to the Travers and she wins. That would lock things up for her, no matter what else happens. Kentucky Oaks, Preakness, Mother Goose, Haskell and Travers wins. Game over. However, my gut tells me he does not want to run her 1 1/4 against males at Saratoga. We shall see.

So who could beat her out if she doesn't win the Travers or beat older horses? Well, Einstein for one. The 7-year-old already has claimed the Santa Anita Handicap and Woodford Reserve Turf Classic. If he should also win the Aug. 8 Arlington Million that would be his third grade I win of the year. If he should then go to the BC Classic, wouldn't he have to be considered for HOY if he wins? Absolutely. That would be one impressive résumé. He will have won a pair of $1 million races as well as a $5 million race - all against older horses. Rachel would be by no means a lock if she doesn't do one of the two things I mentioned earlier.

What about Gio Ponti? He has rattled off three straight GI wins so far. What if he should beat Einstein in the Arlington Million, maybe win another in the fall, and then head into either the BC Turf or BC Classic having accomplished all of that? Are you going to tell me he wouldn't have a chance at HOY with five or six grade I wins - all against large fields? Granted, they will all have been on turf (assuming he doesn't go to the Classic), but still...

Finally, there is Zenyatta. Her schedule has been far from challenging so far, but she still has a shot. Assuming she takes the same path as last year, she would collect wins in the Clement Hirsch next month, the Lady's Secret in September, and then be set up for a run in the BC Classic. If she defeats males in the Classic that would be five wins this season - four in grade I - and it would make her a perfect 14-for-14 in her career. You going to tell me a bunch of people won't vote for her if she ends her career by beating the best males in the Classic?

So all of you people who think Rachel has things locked up in July, you'd better think again. What she has done thus far has been sensational, but there are other horses having terrific seasons as well. And when you don't show up for the World Championships, you are leaving the door wide open for someone to steal it.

Your thoughts?

Saturday Picks, Part 1

jshandler — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 20:21:00 GMT

Marathon

Earlier in the week I was leaning towards Delightful Kiss, who enters in good form and has consecutive grade III wins over synthetic surfaces. His bullet work at Golden Gate Oct. 12 confirms the 4-year-old gelding is as good as he has ever been for Pete Anderson.

As the week has gone on, however, I am feeling the Euros more, especially Muhannak and Sixtees Icon. Muhannak has not only won four in a row, but has earned consecutive wins on the Polytrack in Europe. The Chester House gelding has been a consistent stakes winner, has won at a 1 1/2 miles and is 4-1-2 on synthetics in his career. Somehow, the Irish-bred is a nice 20-1 overlay. Sixtees Icon, the 2-1 morning-line favorite, has won three consecutive group stakes and four of six this season. The group I winner and former Arc entrant is the class of the field and deserves a lot of attention despite having never started on synthetic.

The Pick: Mile and a half dirt races are rare in the United States. Since this is the inaugural running of this event, I'm going to put most of my money on the aforementioned Euros, who have much more experience winning at this distance. I'll box Muhannak, Sixtees Icon and Delightful Kiss in an exacta, and on top, I'll take Sixtees Icon, who is much more accomplished than any of these. I should be able to get 2-1 or more on the 5-year-old.

Turf Sprint

This is as wide-open an event as there is all weekend. Get Funky being the 9-2 morning-line favorite is conformation of that. Mr. Nightlinger, the 6-1 second choice, could go off as the favorite when all is said and done. The Indian Charlie colt has won five in a row with consistent speed figures to go along with each victory. The 14 post should actually be a benefit since they will be coming out of the downhill shoot. He must be respected.

Idiot Proof is also worthy of consideration. Second to Midnight Lute in last year's dirt sprint, he will be making just the second turf start of his career. But he was beaten only a length by Get Funky and could improve off that. Gomez helps too.

True to Tradition, One Union and Fleeting Spirit, the only filly in the race, are also interesting. Fleeting Spirit, a 3-year-old, is a multiple group winner who might appreciate 6 1/2 furlongs for the first time in her career.

The Pick: Again, this is a tough race to handicap; a lot of variables and things to consider. Look for overlays. Earlier in the week I had Mr. Nightlinger in my top spot. Now, I'm leaning towards Idiot Proof and True to Tradition. I'll box those two in an exacta and use True to Tradition as my win bet. The Scott Lake trainee will be a big price despite being very consistent this season. He should be on or near the lead.

Dirt Mile

Well Armed is going to be a handful. His form, win over the Pro-Ride, and early speed all make him tough to beat. I'm not sure I'm going to try to do it. Right now, 3-1 is looking very appetizing for a horse who some felt would have had a good chance in the Classic. He's looked great all week.

The Pick: Albertus Maximus, Surf Cat and Lewis Michael are the most logical to take down the favorite. Albertus Maximus might have more upside than anyone here and could improve off the Goodwood, where he was less than two back of Well Armed. He's had nice works too. Let's go with a Well Armed/Albertus Maximus exacta box, with Well Armed getting the slight edge for the win bet if he holds at 3-1.

Mile

Some Breeders' Cup races it makes sense to look for prices and overlays. In this one, however, look no further than the three morning-line choices - Goldikova, Whatsthescript and Kip Deville. Between them you have an exceptionally talented filly who has won three consecutive group stakes, a California-based colt entering in great form, and the defending champ. I cannot see anyone else contending.

The Pick: Trying to separate the top three is challenging. Goldikova has run two good races against Arc winner Zarkava and has won five of seven at this distance. On paper, she is the one to beat. But Whatsthescript also has a lot in his favor - huge speed figure last out, 4-for-5 at the distance and 2-for-3 on Santa Anita grass. The John Sadler and Garrett Gomez connection doesn't hurt either, which is why I'm going to take Whatsthescript in a slight upset over Goldikova and Kip Deville.

Juvenile

With some of the better 2-year-olds not making it to the race, mostly everyone has a decent chance here. Todd Pletcher sends out the favorite, Munnings, but also has a second colt to consider - Silent Valor. Despite being 15-1 on the morning-line, Silent Valor has put up very comparable speed figures and his second test at routing could see an improvement. Edgar Prado getting the mount doesn't hurt either.

Others I took a long look at were Azul Leon, Square Eddie and Midshipman, but it is Bushranger who I have really started to like as the week has worn on. The son of Danetime was installed as the fourth choice despite winning consecutive group I's in Europe. He has the perfect stalking style and gets one of the world's premier riders. He reminds some of 2001 juvenile champion Johannesburg, who came into this race in similar fashion. The question marks? Routing for the first time and moving off the turf.

The Pick: Silent Valor and Bushranger are my top two. After leaning towards Silent Valor earlier in the week, I'll likely use Bushranger as my win bet, but will play both in an exacta. Azul Leon will be in my trifecta plays as a big longshot.

** My selections for the final four Saturday races, including the Classic, will follow tomorrow.

Are You Excited About the Monmouth Stakes?

jshandler — Fri, 12 Sep 2008 16:53:00 GMT

I have mixed feeling about Big Brown racing in the newly-created Monmouth Stakes this weekend.

On one hand, I am happy to see the Derby winner running at all. After the Belmont, most of us probably thought there was little chance he would ever see the racetrack again, especially considering the fragility of his feet. I've said this many times before, I give Mike Iavarone a lot of credit for continuing to run Big Brown since he really has nothing to gain and everything to lose, financially speaking. So in this respect, I guess we should all be happy that he is even racing at all.

I can also appreciate the connections wanting to run Big Brown on turf as a prep for the Breeders' Cup Classic. Those tender feet are probably worse than they are letting on. Rick Dutrow admitted the other day that "he's not a horse that wakes up ready to roll." Those lingering quarter cracks are a very real issue to contend with and the grass is simply an easier surface for Big Brown to run on. I get it.

Finally, I understand the main goal here is the Classic. That is the race which will decide Horse of the Year and carries a $5 million purse. Everything between now and then doesn't matter much to Iavarone and Co. They want their ideal six weeks of rest heading into the big race. I understand.

Admitting all of the above, part of me still thinks the connections took the easy way out the second half of his 3-year-old season and that should count against them. First, they showed up at the Haskell and completely bypassed Saratoga. That is questionable. Saratoga is where champions go.

This latest move to turf I am okay with, but if that is the path you want to take, at least show up in a graded stakes race. There were plenty of options - The Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at Belmont and the Clement Hirsch Turf Championship at Santa Anita, both on Sept. 27. Or, if they wanted a true prep for the Classic, how about the Goodwood on the same surface he will see in October? Four weeks of rest should be plenty for the Classic, despite what Dutrow says.

Heck, I would have even been fine with the Kentucky Cup Turf this weekend at Kentucky Downs. At least it's a grade III and I'm sure Kentucky Downs would have increased the purse, like Monmouth did.

I would have been okay with any of those options. Instead, they had Monmouth create a new race for them, one that really is a just a glorified allowance race with a big purse. There are a couple proven horses in here, but no grade I winners and nothing Big Brown can't destroy if he is on the top of his game. I have been critical of Curlin's connections in the past as well, but at least when they moved him to turf they chose an established race. There is something to be said for that.

I expect the Derby winner and probable 3-year-old champion to show up against the best. The Haskell wasn't the spot. The Travers was. The Monmouth Stakes isn't the spot. Santa Anita or Belmont was.

I'm wondering how many of you feel about the race this weekend. After all, we are getting to see Big Brown run on turf, which should be fun no matter where it is or what the race is called. But are you excited? Or did this spot turn you off? I have mixed feelings.

If you are planning on betting the race, here is my take on "That Handicapping Show."

Can Kip Deville Be Beaten?

jshandler — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 18:06:00 GMT

Every racing fan has their favorite and most memorable moments. Last year, for me, it was the Woodbine Mile.

Who can forget the breathtaking rail move by Shakespeare, who came from eighth and 7 1/2 lengths back at the quarter-pole to nail Kip Deville in the final yards? It was truly one of the best late moves I have seen by a 6-year-old, and to do it after coming back from serious injury made it all the more remarkable. If you would like to see it again, here it is. I was sorry to see Shakespeare retire. When healthy, he was a monster.

The field isn't as large and wide-open for this year's Mile, and it is certainly going to be tough to beat Kip Deville. He is the top turf miler in North America, hands down. And he will have only seven rivals, with his main competition seemingly coming from a filly, Ventura. He is sure to be odds-on and won't offer much in the way of value. Is it worth playing against him?

Aside from Ventura, the other six challengers are all Woodbine locals. On paper, there is nothing in here that blows you away. Just Rushing seems to be the most logical one to challenge, as the 7-year-old gelding hasn't been out of the money in his last nine. But he has only one win to show for it, that coming last out in the grade II Play the King. He also never won at a mile, and his trainer, Sid Attard, admitted coming back in only two weeks will be very difficult.

Also coming out of the Play the King are runner-up Wollemi Pine and fourth-place Mulmur. Wollemi Pine, trained by Ian Black, is a closer who was running in allowance company up until two months ago. He'll need a brisk pace. Mulmur rallied well in the Play the King and won the Ontario Jockey Club two starts back. He comes from winning connections, so I give him an outside chance.

Palladio hasn't won in nearly 14 months.

Other than Ventura, who I will cover shortly, I give Black's other entry, Rahy's Attorney, the best chance for an upset. This 4-year-old gelding doesn't always win but is consistently around the money. He is 6-2-4 from 16 starts and more importantly, is 2-for-2 going a mile and has won five of eight starts on the Woodbine turf. Not bad. He has a graded stakes to his credit this year when taking the Connaught Cup while going 12 furlongs. He cuts back from the 1 1/4 Nijinsky last out, where he finished fourth but was beaten only three lengths. All three of the horses that beat him are entered in the grade I Northern Dancer, which is right before the Mile.

Ventura is a filly on the rise. She is a nose away from winning two in a row in graded action, both against very good company. How will she do against the boys? Well, if her times are any indication, she is right where she belongs. In fact, her final time of 1:32.75 in the grade I Just a Game in June was better than any mile time Kip Deville has ever run. This seems like her perfect distance and the spacing between races couldn't be any better. Throw in Garrett Gomez, who was aboard Shakespeare last year, and trainer Bobby Frankel, who has two Mile victories to his credit, and she should be right there.

Kip Deville has been lightly-raced by Rick Dutrow Jr in 2008. He has only two starts to his credit this season, as opposed to five this same time last year. Dutrow says he doesn't need any more than this, and judging by his Maker's Mark Mile, which came off a nearly six-month layoff, he is probably right. If Kip runs his race and is on the top of his game, he is clearly the best horse here. He is a three-time grade I winner and has beaten much tougher than this.

The Pick: It wouldn't shock me if (4) Kip Deville lost this race, but I don't think it is very likely. The problem is, he'll be odds-on. (8) Ventura is certainly capable here, but she won't offer great value either (likely to be 7-2 or 3-1). I'm going to play $10 across the board on (2) Rahy's Attorney, who is 12-1 on the morning-line, and also use him in a $1 trifecta key that will read like this: 2,4,8/2,4,8/all. That's a $36 ticket.

For the record, I like a Seaside Retreat/Quijano exacta in the Northern Dancer and The Niagara Queen to pull an upset in the Canadian Stakes. If you watched That Handicapping Show this week, you'll know I went with Jade's Revenge in the Turfway Park Fall Championship in the other Breeders' Cup Challenge race.

Good luck!!

Sprint Division Becomes Wide-Open

jshandler — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 18:01:00 GMT

With so many divisions seemingly wide-open for the Breeders' Cup, there was at least one that we thought we had a pretty good grasp on. The Sprint.

Not anymore.

In the last seven days the Sprint went from being a division with two clear-cut favorites, to one with more questions than perhaps any other division.

First, defending champ Midnight Lute's comeback was derailed last weekend at Del Mar, as he finished a disappointing 10^th in the Pat O'Brien Handicap. It left serious questions as to whether he is the same horse who won the 2007 BC Sprint and Eclipse Award, and if he is suited for running well on synthetics. Stay tuned there.

More stunningly, we learned on Wednesday that Benny the Bull has been retired. We were all looking forward to watching him in the Forego and pointing towards the Breeders' Cup, where he was going to attend to some unfinished business. But now the best sprinter in the world, who had won five straight, is no longer in the mix and it has left a gaping hole in the division.

So where does this leave the sprint division? Well, I guess the new favorite becomes Street Boss, who has also won five straight and is a synthetic specialist. His closing style is very much like Benny the Bull's and now the Bruce Headley trainee looks to have the edge on the rest.

Lucky Island also becomes a major contender. The Argentine-bred has won four in a row, including two in graded company and may have more talent than Street Boss. But will he like the surface? Same goes for the undefeated Bustin Stones, who has gone gate-to-wire in all five dirt starts. But he hasn't run since April.

One horse it would be wise not to forget about is Fabulous Strike, who when healthy, might be faster than any of these. I talked to trainer Todd Beattie about the 5-year-old Smart Strike gelding today, and he said all systems are go.

Fabulous Strike, who has won 10 of 15 starts but has raced just once this year, has been scratched from his last two starts, including the Vanderbilt. Beattie said Fabulous Strike had a bad foot bruise that required work and some rest, but he is now on target for the Sept. 27 Vosburgh, a race that he won by nearly six lengths last year. The Breeders' Cup is definitely the goal.

"He's training fantastic," said Beattie, who is based out of Pennsylvania and has Fabulous Strike stabled at Presque Isle Downs. "He's right on schedule for the Vosburgh. We've had some bumps in the road, but the good news is that we'll have a real fresh horse for the Breeders' Cup. I have a lot of confidence in him and now it seems like the division is open to anybody."

One other we must not forget is J Be K. The 3-year-old faltered in the King's Bishop but he is still a force with his electric speed.

It should be an interesting two months.

Selections For The Weekend of Aug. 23-24

jshandler — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 21:14:00 GMT

It's a huge weekend for the Breeders' Cup Challenge, as seven "Win and You're In" races are on the slate this weekend. Unfortunately, Travers week has kept me from looking at all of them in depth, so I have picked out three to analyze. Feel free to send your picks on all races, even the ones not mentioned.

Del Mar Handicap, Aug. 23

I did my best here to beat Spring House, but I can't seem to do it. He has faced so much more than all of these and this distance should be fit him perfectly. He missed by three parts of a length in this race last year and was just hitting his best stride in the Eddie Read last month before running out of room. His trip to Dubai was unsuccessful, but that may have been the toughest turf race in the world this year. He's a tough customer in this spot.

The Pick: Although I can't pick against Spring House to win, my exacta will include Transduction Gold, a horse that seems to be on the improve. Not sure he'll enjoy the cutback in distance, but should be a nice price. He's faced some good horses recently and has won at Del Mar before. He should save all the ground and might make a late run.

Arlington Spring Handicap, Aug. 23

One of my favorite things to do is to try to beat big favorites who enter off winning streaks. Tizdejavu was a prime example a couple weeks ago. In this case it's going to be a little more difficult, as Mr. Nightlinger is a powerful animal. He should be odds-on here, but let's give it a shot.

One interesting horse is Starticus, who looks like he should at least challenge Mr. Nightlinger for the lead. His half-mile splits are consistently near :44 3/5, which should be enough to make the favorite work. If a duel develops, it could set things up perfectly for a stalker or someone off the pace. To me, Prince Woodman and Dhanyata fit that profile.

The Pick: Off for almost a year and half entering the season, Dhanyata seems to be rounding into form nicely for Eddie Kenneally. He was nearly a group I winner as a 2-year-old before getting injured and has been close to breaking through this year. His most recent effort was a nice one in the Chicago Handicap on the Polytrack, where he closed well for third and finished behind two good horses. He turned in a nice turf work at Saratoga this month and should get a nice stalking trip here. I'm hoping his first turf race in nearly two years will be a successful one. If I'm right, I'll be rewarded at 10-1 or more.

Rancho Bernardo, Del Mar, Aug. 24

Good Betting race here. Magnificience broke badly and could never recover in the A Gleam when she was beaten by Dearest Trickski. The lightly-raced filly should be able to turn the tables here, but will have to deal with other talent. Lethal Heat comes back on just eight days rest after finishing third in the Del Mar Oaks. She is in good form right now and should like the return to Polytrack. Tiz Elemental was fifth in the A Gleam but could improve off that. She'll be a nice price. Silky Smooth should be considered. She likes this surface.

The Pick: Wouldn't surprise me if Magnificience ran away with this one, but I'm going to take a shot with Lethal Heat. If Barry Abrams is bringing her back in a week, she should be ready to fire. She is 2-for-2 on the Del Mar Poly and she beat some good ones when routing in the Hollywood Oaks earlier this year. After being unraced as a 2-year-old, she is 6-0-2 from eight starts this season. She is 4-for-5 on synthetics. She should be able to stalk and make a run at the quick pace.

** Unfortunately, there was not yet time to take an in-depth look at the Pacific Classic. Without going into detail, my early selection is Well Armed.

Good luck to everyone!

Division Leaders

jshandler — Tue, 12 Aug 2008 21:26:00 GMT

We're now a little more than five weeks into the Breeders' Cup season and the divisions are beginning to take shape. The continuing story thus far is how the male division seemingly gets more ordinary every day while the female division continues to get more exciting. Unless this Big Brown-Curlin thing actually happens, there is no doubt the Ladies Classic will be much more interesting come late October. I forget, what day is the Ladies Classic being run? Never mind.

Anyway, with about two more months of Breeders' Challenge events left to go, I thought it would be a good idea to take a look at a few of the divisions. Let's do our best to rank the top 3 American-based horses in each one. Here goes:

Classic

1. Curlin - You still have to give him the edge even though we have no idea if Jess Jackson will send him to Santa Anita.

2. Big Brown - Looking forward to seeing the spot they pick for him. Something tells me it will be the Pennsylvania Derby.

3. Commentator - He ran the year's top Beyer (119) so you have to respect him. Looks like he'll go to the Mass Cap next month and point towards the Classic. But can he get 1 1/4 miles?

Don't forget about: Henrythenavigator - He's won four consecutive group I races and some say he is the best horse in the world. Aidan O'Brian says he will point towards this race, which should spice things up.

Ladies Classic

1. Ginger Punch - She's the champ. Until someone proves otherwise, I'm ranking her above Zenyatta.

2 . Zenyatta - Undefeated and getting better. Has a huge advantage because of the synthetics.

3. Music Note - Looking forward to this weekend's Alabama. She might be the best of them all.

Don't forget about: Hystericalady. She lost by a nose in the '07 Distaff and is even better this year.

Tough for me to leave out Proud Spell and Little Belle, but what can you do?

Turf

1. Red Rocks - Won the best U.S. turf race this year.

2. Gio Ponti - Hasn't faced grade I company yet, but a star in the making.

3. Einstein - Had a poor start in the Million, but the loss was more than just that.

Don't forget about: Any European. The Americans will have their hands full against all of them. All three that took money in Arlington Million might be back for BC.

Filly & Mare Turf

1. Mauralakana - Gotta love her. She just knows how to get it done.

2. Forever Together - Diana was no fluke.

3. Black Mamba - Not BC nominated, but owners will probably fork over the cash.

Don't forget about: J'ray: She narrowly lost to Mauralakana twice.

Sprint

1. Benny the Bull: All he does is win. The way he powers down the stretch is breathtaking.

2. J Be K - Has never lost at less than a mile.

3. Street Boss - That's five in a row for the synthetic specialist.

Don't forget about: Kodiak Kowboy: Highly-touted as a 2-year-old, he might be coming into his own.

Mile

1. Kip Deville: Pure miler is lightly-raced this year, but will be primed and ready for Santa Anita.

2. Daytona -Tired in American Handicap. A mile might be his best distance.

3. Monzante - Just beginning to hit his best stride.

Don't forget about: Red Giant: Very impressive off a 10-month layoff. Not sure what his best distance is, but Pletcher will figure it out.

More division rankings to come later...

At Age 10, Evening Attire Still Going Strong

jshandler — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 17:59:00 GMT

There are two Breeders' Cup Challenge "Win and You're In" races this week - the San Diego Handicap for 3-year-olds and up on the Del Mar's main track, and the Greenwood Cup for older horses going a mile and half at Philadelphia Park.

Before breaking down these races from a handicapping standpoint, it is worth noting that a true iron horse of the sport will be going in the Greenwood Cup - Evening Attire. The 10-year-old gelding will make his 69^th career start and seek his 11^th stakes victory. Incredible.

The cool part about this story is that five years after his last appearance at the Breeders' Cup, Evening Attire has a chance to get back to Santa Anita for another appearance - a half-decade later! It was in 2003 that the son of Black Tie Affair last ran in the Breeders' Cup, as he finished seventh in the Classic at Santa Anita. How special would it be if the old man won the Greenwood Cup to earn a berth in the Breeders' Cup Marathon?

When I talked to Patrick Kelly on Wednesday, the trainer said he wasn't concerning himself with the Breeders' Cup and at this point is Evening Attire's career, he takes one day at a time. But if he wins and stays healthy, you would have to believe that they would ship him to California in October. What a great story that would be. As we talked about in the previous blog, our sport needs more old timers like this. These are the kinds of horses that people love to come out and see. And with all the bad publicity that the Breeders' Cup is getting for various reasons, Evening Attire's presence would give it a much needed boost.

Here's hoping Evening Attire, Surf Cat, Lava Man, Red Rocks and some other racing veterans find their way to California in October.

And now to the races...

Greenwood Cup

I give Evening Attire a decent chance to win this race. There are only six entered and it's not a particularly strong field. I am immediately tossing Phil the Power, Solemn Promise and Bureaucratic. That leaves me with the "old man," Barcola and Three in a Bag.

Evening Attire has been very competitive in his last two, including a nice runner-up performance in the Brooklyn Handicap last month where he earned a 105 Beyer. Kelly said he is training very well, but is concerned about the heat. It is supposed to be very hot in Philadelphia this weekend and he said Evening Attire, who will be shipping in race day, doesn't do well in extreme temperatures. From a racing standpoint, he beat Barcola in December in the Queen's County Handicap, so he fits very well here.

Barcola was third to Curlin in the Stephen Foster last month and won the Brandywine at Delaware in May. He should be on the lead and might be tough to catch, even at 12 furlongs. Three in the Bag is the scary horse in here. He has won his last two by a combined 24 lengths, both in optional claiming events.

The Pick: Barcola is 7-5 on the morning line and will probably be even money by post time. He'll be tough to beat, but I can't in good conscience take him at those odds. You know where my heart will be, but I'm going to pass on Evening Attire and go for the horse that is in the best form - Three in the Bag. A 6-year-old gelding, he has two resounding wins at Philly this year, and although he hasn't tried stakes company since 2005 he is ready for this step. His trainer (Tony Dutrow) knows how to win at this track and he should offer the best value.

San Diego Handicap

Looks to me like it's between Surf Cat, Rebellion, Well Armed, and if you want to take a shot, perhaps Global Hunter for a berth in the BC Dirt Mile.

At age 6, Surf Cat is still very good. He has a pair of grade II wins this year, and has been off the board just once in 12 starts dating back to 2005. He's always sharp. Rebellion is also in fine form, winning both the Commonwealth and Ack Ack since April. And he gets Bejarano. He should be flying from off the pace. Well Armed makes his first start since returning from Dubai, where he was a well-beaten third in the World Cup. He has been working nicely at Del Mar.

The Pick: Tough to choose here, especially because at the time of this writing the morning-line odds have not yet been posted. It might be one of those where I wait 15 minutes until post to see the odds, but for now I will go with Well Armed. Normally, I don't like betting horses in their first start back from Dubai, but based on his works the 5-year-old gelding is obviously sharp. There isn't a ton of early speed in here, so he should be able to get the lead and go. He's got two wins on synthetics and the distance should be fine for him. Plus, he beat Heatseeker twice this year. That's telling, given the fact that Heatseeker handled Surf Cat easily last out.

Your thoughts?

Racing's Second Season

jshandler — Mon, 07 Jul 2008 03:28:00 GMT

Welcome to Breeders' Cup Chat and the second half of the Thoroughbred racing season! While sometimes not as glamorous as the Triple Crown season, the road to the Breeders' Cup offers some of the best racing around, including turf events galore, seldom seen ‘marathon' routes, and of course, two of the best meets in the world - Saratoga and Del Mar.

There have been many changes to the Breeders' Cup during the past couple of years, most notably the addition of a second day of racing and the advent of the Breeders' Cup Challenge "Win and You're In" series, which increased from 25 races to 57 this year.

Personally, I love the changes. Adding more races on the second day, more divisions, and additional "Win and You're In" events will make things that much more exciting. When the announcement of more races first came, Blood-Horse did interviews with many of the high-profile trainers in the industry. Somewhat surprisingly, nearly every one endorsed the change. That told me all I needed to know. The Breeders' Cup is doing a great job of selling its product and trying to generate interest. This is precisely what racing needs. Let's focus on the good in the sport and not the negative stuff. The RACING is what real fans want to see and talk about. Let's do our part in keeping that going.

One of the things I love about this season is the Breeders' Cup Fantasy Challenge. Based on my conversations with many of you, I am not the only one who enjoys this contest. Basically, it gives us an opportunity to pick the winner in every one of the Breeders' Cup Challenge races, with a chance at winning some serious prizes. If you haven't already signed up, you can do so here.

Now, I don't expect to win any of these prizes, but the contest does give us a cool way of following the races while competing against each other. What I'd like to do on this blog is handicap each race, post my picks the day before (or day of) each event, and then get your picks. Basically, we'll handicap these races together and then see who comes out ahead at the end of the Breeders' Cup Fantasy Challenge. It will be our own mini-contest. The top finisher on this blog will win a nice Blood-Horse prize pack that includes t-shirts, a credit to our photo store, and a couple books.

If you are going to play, please let me know what your Breeders' Cup Fantasy Challenge handle is. Mine is "Offhegoes." Don't worry if you missed the July 5 races, there is still time to join. Hundreds of people all earned $0 at Monmouth anyway. For the record, I earned $6.60 the first day, as I had both runner-ups. Here is the link to the leaderboard.

Also on this blog we'll do Q & A's from the top names in the industry, top 10 lists, and cover current racing news - just as we did on Triple Crown Talk. Mostly though, Breeders' Cup talk will be geared toward racing and handicapping. I look forward to blogging with everyone.

Any early thoughts on the Smile Sprint and/or Princess Rooney?