Breeders Cup Chat : Breeders' Cup Chat

A Thank You and Simple Wishlist For 2009

jshandler — Tue, 30 Dec 2008 17:05:00 GMT

As 2008 drifts off into the sunset, I'd like to take this opportunity to thank everyone who has read and/or commented on Breeders' Cup Chat. We had some lively debates, and even though 2008 wasn't the best of years for horse racing, I think we did a pretty good job of keeping it fun. I appreciated everyone's input, even when we disagreed. Thanks for making this blog so interesting and successful.

This will be my final Breeders' Cup Chat post until next summer, as the blog will switch over to Triple Crown Talk beginning next week. I look forward to chatting with everyone about the next crop of 3-year-old superstars. We already know who some of the early Derby favorites are, but let's all keep an eye out for the late-bloomers. Remember, Big Brown didn't burst onto the scene until March.

For my final post of the year, I'd like to offer a simple New Year's wishlist. Not that any of these three things will happen, but in a perfect world, we would see changes in 2009. Feel free to post your own wishlist.

See everyone on Triple Crown Talk!

3. Stricter penalties for medication violations - Enough is enough. A big reason for the decline in the popularity of horse racing is that people have little or no confidence in the integrity of the sport. When the trainers of the world's most popular horses continually get popped for drug violations - and keep getting a slap on the wrist - it sends a clear message: The public has no reason to trust horse racing. And if that continues, the sport will keep declining.

Let's finally put in place tough drug policies, much like other nations have had for years: First violation - one year suspension; second violation - five years; third violation - lifetime ban. That would solve the lying and cheating real quick. More realistically, I hope at the very least a rule is put into place that says a trainer cannot transfer horses to his/her assistant during the time they are serving their suspension. It's a laughable way of avoiding the penalty. Under my rules, if you are serving a suspension, either the horse is permanently transferred to another barn or they are not allowed to run during the infraction period. It's that simple.

Steroids nearly ruined baseball. Illegal drugs (not just steroids) will ruin horse racing if stricter penalties are not enforced.

2. Address the problem of unwanted horses - I wrote about this in an earlier post, but if this epidemic is not tackled the problem will keep getting worse, and thousands of horses will continue to suffer.

The slaughter issue in this country is a mess right now and likely will not be solved at a Congressional level any time soon. The Thoroughbred industry is not solely responsible for the unwanted horse issue (see the Quarter Horse industry), but one thing we can do is make owners and breeders more accountable. A system must be put in place to make owners and breeders financially responsible for their horses.

I don't claim to have all the answers, but it makes sense that if a person takes on the responsibility of breeding or owning a horse, they should be held responsible for its welfare, both during and after racing - especially since it is those very animals that are putting bread on the table. Something needs to be done. Now. There aren't nearly enough rescue facilities to solve the problem.

3. Name a commissioner - Neither No. 1 or No. 2 on the list above, or anything else for that matter, can get accomplished without putting a person or group in charge of horse racing. I know it's easier said than done, but we need a governing body to enforce rules. Otherwise, the cheating, unwanted horse issue, and other current problems will get worse. The Safety and Integrity Alliance developed in October was a good first step, but it was only a band-aid. Tough rules need to be put into place, and without a commissioner they won't get done. It's time for someone to step forward. The "league" must have control over the sport, not the states.

My New Friend Big Brown

jshandler — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 17:44:00 GMT

For anyone that has read this blog or Triple Crown Talk, there is no secret that I have never been the leader of the Big Brown bandwagon. I've always appreciated his excellence during the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, but I had difficulty separating the human connections from the horse. Fair or not, that's just the way I am.

Despite not being a fan, I showed up at Three Chimneys on Wednesday for the breeders and media event which was designed to welcome the dual-classic winner to the Midway, Ky. farm, where he will begin his life as a stallion in the near future. And I have to admit, I came away from the event with a newfound liking for Big Brown.

As I always do when I visit Three Chimneys, the first thing I do is walk into the stallion barn and make an immediate left towards my favorite horse - Point Given. I must have missed the news that the 2001 Horse of the Year is performing his stallion duties in Brazil for a while, so imagine my surprise when I looked over and saw Big Brown in the stall normally occupied by Point Given.

After being informed by a co-worker about Point Given's vacation, I walked over to Big Brown. Not only is he a spectacular looking horse, but he has a very likable personality. He was active, made eye contact with me and just exuded the look of a winner. He was impressive. Then he walked right up to me, so naturally, we started talking.

After telling him what a terrific racehorse he was and apologizing in advance for not voting for him for Horse of the Year, I asked him the one question every racing fan wants to know:

"What happened in the Belmont?"

Apparently, I either annoyed him or overstepped my bounds, because it was at that point that Big Brown abruptly turned around, walked away and showed me his rear-end. I was not offended. I completely understood him not being ready to talk about it yet. It's still too soon.

Despite the way that our conversation ended, I came away with a brand new liking for Big Brown. It also helped that Three Chimneys has always been my favorite farm, has my favorite employees working there, and has my favorite crop of stallions. They put on a very classy event for the Big Brown welcoming, complete with a catered lunch, live band and a "Re-usable Brown Bag" tote which included some very nice gifts. It was a fun day.

So in closing, here's to my new friend, Big Brown. You will still never be my favorite, and I would appreciate it if you kindly give Point Given's stall back to him when he returns, but all in all, you're not so bad. I'm sure you'll have fun in your new career.

And who knows, maybe the next time I come back you'll be ready to talk about the Belmont.

Photo: Anne Eberhardt

Breeders' Cup Thoughts - One Day After

jshandler — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 13:26:00 GMT

What a great weekend of racing. We saw several outstanding performances, including three on Ladies Day Friday and many more on what will be now known as "European Saturday." Less than 24 hours after a very successful Breeders' Cup 25, here are a few thoughts and a breakdown of some of the standout races:

First of all, hopefully we haven't seen the last of Curlin, but if we did it was a disappointing way to go out. Most of the 50,000 at Santa Anita were pulling for the superstar to defend his Classic title. It wasn't meant to be. As I wrote on Friday, he had too much going against him - the lack of significant early speed and more than anything, he was just slowing down after a long campaign. Whether Curlin fans want to admit it or not, he hasn't looked all that sharp in his last two starts and after finally facing some elite competition, it caught up with him Saturday.

There should no excuses about the Pro-Ride, surface, which played fair all weekend. Curlin got beat fair and square by a couple very good Europeans. Give Raven's Pass all the credit. He is peaking at the right time while still going through a long season against the best in Europe. It was his first time on the surface as well.

By the way, I don't like kicking people when they are down, but did I tell you about Casino Drive or what? He just wasn't ready for that class. I still can't believe how low his odds were.

To reiterate about the Pro-Ride, I am one of those who was very impressed with the surface. After talking with trainers and horsemen all week, most had good things to say about it. There seemed to be no biases and most horses got over it very well. For all the complaining about having a Breeders' Cup on a synthetic surface, I think it turned out to be a success. It also played very fair from a handicapping standpoint. And most importantly, there were no breakdowns.

I thought Ladies Day Friday worked very well too. It gave horses like Ventura, Stardom Bound and Zenyatta a showcase and they shined. I know some people still don't like the idea of having the fillies and mares run on a different day, but after Friday I would say the majority of the people I talked to thought it was a success. I would still go back to ‘Distaff' instead of ‘Ladies Classic', but I give the Breeders' Cup credit for trying to be creative.

Here are thoughts on some of the races:

Filly and Mare Sprint - The first of three spectacular performances on Friday. Ventura capped a terrific 4-year-old campaign, where she won three stakes and earned more than $1.2 million for Juddmonte. Nothing less than an outstanding performance would have beaten Indian Blessing, who also ran a winning race. They are two special fillies and hopefully we wil see them next year.

Juvenile Fillies - In the week leading up to the race many people at Santa Anita thought Stardom Bound was vulnerable because of her running style. I was not one of them. What I saw in the Debutante and Oak Leaf told me that this is one freaky filly. She confirmed it in the BC with another breathtaking win. Seeing Stardom Bound make that move around the turn was one of the highlights of the weekend. I cannot wait to see where she lands as a 3-year-old and what she will accomplish. She will be one of the major stories of 2009.

Ladies Classic - What can you say about Zenyatta that hasn't already been said? She is truly spectacular. Her seemingly effort Ladies Classic win capped an exciting Friday and kept her undefeated in nine starts. We can only hope she runs next year, and who knows, maybe a year from now she will try to the boys in the Classic.

Also, there is plenty of time for this, but Horse of the Year is now going to be very interesting between Zenyatta and Curlin. Both are certainly deserving and my early guess is Curlin has the edge. But Zenyatta is going to garner a lot of votes. Let the debating begin!!

Turf Sprint - Great race, great finish. I wasn't one of those who had $75 winner Desert Code, but it would have been nice to have the biggest score of the weekend. Anyone have it? Just goes to show that toteboards can light up when you have ridiculous early fractions.

Dirt Mile - I wound up playing Albertus Maximus after A) seeing his nice odds compared to Well Armed and B) watching how good he looked in the paddock. I am usually not one of those with an astute eye for picking out horses who look good before the race, but when I saw Albertus Maximus 10 minutes before post I ran to the window. This is one of the most physically impressive colts I have seen in a long time and he proved it on the track. Great job by cutting-edge trainer Vladimir Cerin, who turned this horse around after taking over for Gary Mandella. One of his secrets? Using a hyperbaric chamber to help him recover faster. Very cool. I am looking forward to seeing Albertus Maximus race as a 5-year-old. He has a lot of upside. I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the 2009 Classic.

Mile - Wow. Goldikova's turn of foot in the final sixteenth was breathtaking. It was definitely a weekend highlight. Kip Deville ran a winning type race, but was no match for this freaky 3-year-old filly. Not sure what the future holds for either, but it certainly was a memorable race.

Sprint - The most disappointing race of the week for me. I touted Fabulous Strike, but he just didn't fire. Not sure what happened to him, but even at his best he probably wouldn't have beaten Midnight Lute or Fatal Bullet, who ran a huge race. What a job Bob Baffert has done with Midnight Lute, who in the early part of the season didn't even look like he would make it back to the track. Winning two consecutive BC Sprint's is a tremendous accomplishment. Hats off.

Q&A With Stardom Bound Trainer Chris Paasch

jshandler — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 19:55:00 GMT

One of the great things about the Breeders' Cup is the feel-good stories surrounding the connections of the horses. As with all sports, these compelling stories are what draw us in. They make us root for our favorite athletes.

Although Stardom Bound will certainly not be an underdog in the Juvenile Fillies - more likely, she'll be the favorite - the story around her connections will have many people rooting for the daughter of Tapit when she goes to post Oct. 24.

Stardom Bound was picked out of the OBS 2-year-old select sale this March by trainer Chris Paasch for $375,000. Paasch, a second-generation horseman who has been training since 1980, bought the good-looking filly for owner Charles Cono, a retired California real estate magnate. Since then, Stardom Bound has won the Del Mar Debutante and Oak Leaf Stakes, both grade I events, in eye-popping fashion. With a devastating late kick, the gray filly displayed two of the most impressive moves you will ever see by a 2-year-old. She is a certified superstar. Has there ever been a more aptly-named horse?

What makes Stardom Bound's story compelling are Paasch and Cono, who have both battled illness and will be dissolving their racing partnership before the end of year.

In the mid-1990s, Paasch was diagnosed with a rare, leukemia-like illness and was forced to take a leave of absence from training. Although he resumed training earlier this decade, Paasch did so on a limited basis. He only trains horses for Cono and has less than 20 in training. Paasch lives in California and keeps his horses at Hollywood Park.

Cono, who is 85-years old and in failing health, has said he will sell all of his horses by the end of the year, including Stardom Bound, who will be offered at the Fasig-Tipton November select breeding stock sale. One can only imagine how much she will command on the open market.

Paasch and Cono have never won a Breeders' Cup. For both of them it would be a dream come true - and a storybook ending if Stardom Bound can capture the Juvenile Fillies. With less than three weeks until the big day, I caught up with Paasch for a short Q&A.

JS: When you first saw Stardom Bound at the 2-year-old sale, what attracted you to her?

CP: I buy most of my horses from 2-year-old sales. I've never been one to buy solely on pedigree, so I guess it was the way she moved on the track that I liked.

JS: Did you know right away that she was special?

CP: We pretty much knew from the start. I let all my horses cool out after the sale, but once we got her with the other horses we could see what we had. It's always easy to spot class.

JS: You entered her in the Debutante even though she was still a maiden. Did you have any doubts she could compete at that level?

CP: I think anyone who watched her maiden race could see she should have won. And in the Sorrento (where she finished second), she kind of broke in the air and scraped the gate coming out. But after the way she finished I knew right then. I was still a little apprehensive about putting her in the Debutante, but my wife Bonnie told me to trust my instincts and go for it.

JS: The Debutante was impressive, but it was the Oak Leaf that really got everyone talking about Stardom Bound. Did she surprise you with what she did?

CP: As good as she was in the Debutante, she didn't change leads. She was still green. So we spent the next few weeks working with her on changing leads and helping her learn to pay attention to the rider. We were real patient with her. Even though the final work before the Oak Leaf wasn't what many thought it should be, she really sparkled. I knew she was going to run big.

I've watched a lot of 2-year-olds, and what really amazed me about the Oak Leaf is the way she finished. Most 2-year-olds lose interest when they are taken five- or six-wide. She kept getting stronger.

JS: Have you ever seen a turn of foot like that from a 2-year-old filly?

CP: When (jockey) Mike Smith got off her after the Oak Leaf, he said, "Chris, I haven't even asked her yet." She still hasn't shown her best, I think. Mike never drew the whip to her. If you look at the replays, he just gives her a slap on the shoulder to change leads and she takes off.

JS: I saw a quote where Smith called Stardom Bound his "Baby Zenyatta." Did he come up with that?

CP: I nicknamed her that after the Debutante. I call her ZJ now, Zenyatta Junior. I mean no disrespect to Mr. (John) Shirreffs (trainer) or Mr. (Jerome) Moss (owner) with that. She has a long way to go before she gets to Zenyatta's level. We can only hope she does.

JS: How will you train her up to the Breeders' Cup?

CP: We'll work her five-eighths Saturday (Oct. 11) and then again the following Saturday (Oct. 18), We're not going to be trying for any bullet works - maybe 1:01 or something like that. Then we'll let her gallop out three-quarters the week of. She's very fit already.

JS: How excited are you about the prospects of taking a favorite into the Breeders' Cup?

CP: It is very exciting. As you know, she will be sold at the Fasig-Tipton sale next month, so this will be our last race with her. Mr. Cono can't get to the races anymore and has decided to sell his stable. It was nice for him to be able to see her run in the Oak Leaf; it was his first time at the races in more than a year.

I'm going to retire after we sell off the horses and our breeding stock. I also have a couple 2-year-olds that we'll sell after they're done training.

JS: How is your health?

CP: I'm doing OK. I have some lingering problems.

JS: What are you going to do after you retire?

CP: We bought a property in Oregon and we'll spend a lot of time out there. But I'd like to stay in the business by working with a client who wants me to pick out horses for them at sales. That will keep me hands-on in the business I love.

JS: What would it mean to go out with a Breeders' Cup win?

CP: Words can't describe what it would mean to me and for Mr. Cono. I've had a filly run third in the Kentucky Oaks (Collect Call, 2001) and if you asked me to vote between winning the Kentucky Derby or Oaks, or a Breeders' Cup race, I'd say a Breeders' Cup race 99 percent of the time. For me, winning the Breeders' Cup has always been the bar I've set for myself.

Three Weeks and Counting

jshandler — Fri, 03 Oct 2008 16:29:00 GMT

We're coming into the home stretch...just three weeks until the Breeders' Cup. I don't know about any of you, but it looks to me like we're going to have some of the most competitive fields in recent memory. All of the races will be anticipated with great excitement, but I am especially looking forward to the Juvenile Fillies, Filly & Mare Turf, Ladies Classic, Sprint, Mile, Turf and of course, the Classic. We will breaking down all of the races in the coming weeks, so I'll look forward to your input.

In the meantime, there is still some pre-Breeders' Cup work to be done. Today is opening day at Keeneland and the atmosphere, as always, will be electric. The Saturday card, which boasts four graded races with purses of $500,000 or more is tremendous. Three of those races are "Win and You're In" events, so let's take a look at those.

By the way, this is the last full weekend of the Breeders' Cup Fantasy Challenge. We haven't talked a lot about the contest, but are any of you doing well? I was near the middle of the pack for most of the summer but I've been on fire the last two weeks and am actually sitting in 24^th place and only about $50 behind the leader. My handle is "Offhegoes." It would take a lot of luck this weekend, but I have an outside chance at this thing. If any of you have a "lock" in any of the 12 challenge races, let me know!!

Shadwell Turf Mile

This is a very competitive full field and a great betting race. Rahy's Attorney and Shakis will take a lot of money based on their last efforts, but I don't like either. Rahy's Attorney is making his first career start away from Woodbine and Shakis has done his best running in New York. War Monger could be a factor, and my co-worker Evan Hammonds likes Society's Chairman, who also ships from Canada and could be near the pace.

The early word from Keeneland is that the turf course is very dry and could play towards speed. That is one of the reasons I like Thorn Song, who should be on the front end under Robby Albarado. This late-blooming 5-year-old has been in good form all year. He ran well in the Maker's Mark Mile during the Keeneland Spring meet and lost to Kip Deville by only a length. He is 2-0-1 at a mile on the turf and was beaten only a length by Red Giant two starts back. Of course, Red Giant set a nine-furlong world record last weekend.

The other horse I like is European shipper Lord Admiral, who makes his first start in the U.S. since 2006. He won two group stakes in Dubai this year and has faced the world's best. He was third to Archipenko, and last out was competitive against New Approach in the Irish Champion. He has been on the board in 30 of 45 starts.

The Pick: I'm going to play an exacta with Thorn Song and Lord Admiral on top of each other and use them over longshots French Beret, Lovelace and Karelian.

Lane's End Breeders' Futurity

Another big field and wide-open race. I give Majestic Blue a decent chance here based on his impressive maiden win at Saratoga. Flashmans Papers has also been very competitive in group company in England, as has Square Eddie, who just missed by a head last out. They are two of three juveniles shipping in for trainer John Best. Notonthesamepage has the highest speed figure of anyone here and faced a tough field in the Hopeful.

Pioneerof the Nile broke his maiden going 1 1/16 miles on the Saratoga turf and now tries Poly for the first time. A son of Empire Maker, he could be closing hard. Advice draws the outside post, but might be able to overcome it. He broke his maiden by 8 lengths and then was caught in deep stretch in the Arlington-Washington Futurity, both on Poly.

The Pick: Tough race to bet. I'll play an exacta box with Advice, Pioneer of the Nile and Notonthesamepage. My win bet will be on Advice.

Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes

Indyanne will take most of the money here and rightfully so. She has been awesome in five starts and her only loss last out can be excused due to a poor break. She already has win over a synthetic surface too.

My buddies at Equiform like Wild Gams here. She is a classy 5-year-old mare who enters in good form. She won this event last year after a bold stretch run and a hot early pace could set her up for another win. She is 8-2-1 from 16 starts at six furlongs.

Don't forget about Sugar Swirl. She was third in the grade I Ballerina was impressive and she has won four of six this year, all graded stakes. The 5-year-old daughter of Touch Gold gets Bejarano, who was aboard last year in the TCA when she finished second to Wild Gams after falling far back.

Any Limit should provide an early speed challenge with Indyanne. She won by almost six lengths in the grade II Honorable Miss last out.

The Pick: Indyanne will be tough here, but she faces experienced older horses. I'll hope she gets caught up in a speed duel with Any Limit, which sets up Sugar Swirl for a big finish. You can't complain about anything Sugar Swirl has done this year. She fires every time. I'll take her to win and use her in exacta boxes with Wild Gams and Golden Doc A, who will be a price.

Also, in the Champagne, I like Cribnote. This colt is going to be something special.

Let me know who you like and good luck to everyone!

Picks For a Great Weekend of Racing

jshandler — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 17:16:00 GMT

Does racing get any better than this weekend? Seven grade I's from Santa Anita. Five from Belmont. Eighteen graded stakes around the country. Eleven Breeders' Cup Challenge races in two different countries (would have been 13 if the Pilgrim and Miss Grillo weren't moved to next week because of weather). Great stuff.

About the only hiccup in what promises to be an exciting racing weekend is the heavy rains in New York. It's not exactly clear if the turf races will remain on turf, but either way, the complexion of all the races will change. Of course, all eyes will be on the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Curlin's attempt to break Cigar's earnings record.

Let's take a look at some of the big races, starting with the Gold Cup:

As we saw in last year's BC Classic, Curlin doesn't have any problems running in the mud. If he is on the top of his game he should handle this field. But...

His Woodward was far from impressive. Is the long year beginning to take its toll? I'm not sure, but it would still take a lot of guts to bet against Curlin here, so I think the best way to go is to play exotics. Mambo in Seattle proved me wrong in the Travers, but he still didn't make a believer out of me yet, especially at 7-2. If you're going to play Curlin at odds-on, you have to take a stand against Mambo to get a decent price.

I like Wanderin Boy to run a big race here. He is very classy. Over the past two years he has run second to Invasor, Bernardini and Lawyer Ron. And his Woodward wasn't bad at all last out. Two years ago he won by seven in the mud at Belmont. Last year he romped in the mud at Churchill. I'm not sure how much the old man has left, but I'm willing to throw him in all of my exotics, especially at 10-1 or more. I'll also include A.P. Arrow (20-1), for no good reason other than he has shown a liking for an off-track and he is certainly due, and Timber Reserve, who seems to be in his best form of the year.

The pick: $20 exacta box (5) Curlin/(3) Wanderin Boy and $5 exacta box (5) Curlin/(7) A.P. Arrow, (3) Timber Reserve. I'll also play a small across the board bet on (3) Wanderin Boy.

We discuss the race further in this week's edition of That Handicapping Show. Plus, don't miss Cary's Equiform picks. He was 3-for-3 last week and continues to stay red-hot. He gives his picks for the Ancient Title and another race from Santa Anita.

Goodwood

The Pro-Ride at Santa Anita has gotten good reviews so far, but it will get a real test this weekend. You would have to assume that the horses that run well over it will have an advantage Breeders' Cup weekend. In the meantime, it makes handicapping that much harder in the short term. Nobody, even the trainers, have any idea how their horses will handle the new surface.

Tiago won last year's Goodwood by a nose, but has been very average since then. I'm going to pass. Spirit One makes his first start off turf and should be near the lead, along with Well Armed and possibly Zappa. The early pace might set up well for Surf Cat, who has a first and third at this distance and despite finishing sixth in the Pacific Classic, didn't give a poor showing. Or it might be a prefect set-up for Mast Track, who has run three straight Beyers over 100 and turned in a great work over the surface on Sunday. The outside post concerns me though.

Also working well over the surface is Albertus Maximus, who is my longshot play here. He is a 4-year-old who seems to be on the rise, he gets Garrett Gomez and turned in a career best speed figure last out when winning the Windy Sands. Vladimir Cerin recently took over the training of the son of Albert the Great, who might be ready to take it to the next level.

The Pick: This is a super, but tough betting race. I can see any of seven or eight horses finding the winner's circle here. In the end, I settled on Surf Cat (6-1), who I'm hoping has one more big run in him. I'm hoping he'll get a nice stalking trip under David Flores and he'll show that finishing kick that he did April. His work on Wednesday indicates he likes the track. I'm going to key him in an exacta box with Albertus Maximus (8-1) and Well Armed, who has done nothing wrong this year - $10 exacta box 4/6,7.

In the Yellow Ribbon I like (2) Vacare, who is very classy, and in the Oak Leaf I think (10) Black Magic Mama will improve in her second start. I'll box her with Will O Way. In the Vosburgh, which is not a "Win and You're In," but still a great race, I'll go with Fabulous Strike. Todd Beattie says he is back to 100% and ready to roll.

Let me know who you like. Good luck this weekend!!

All of a Sudden, BC Classic Full of Intrigue

jshandler — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 20:32:00 GMT

Wasn't it just a few weeks ago that we were all complaining about the Breeders' Cup Classic lacking intrigue?

Now, if everything falls into place, this might be one of the most highly-anticipated Classics of all-time.

Of course, a lot has to be decided between now and Oct. 25, most importantly, whether or not reigning Horse of the Year Curlin will go to California. But after Jess Jackson's recent comments, it now seems there is a 50-50 chance that Curlin will head to Santa Anita to race on Pro-Ride.

The Classic looks like it will get another boost with Commentator, who will run in the Massachusetts Handicap this weekend and then point towards the big race. That was confirmed by his owner, Tracy Farmer, at a national media teleconference Sept. 16. Previously, it was unclear which race Commentator would shoot for.

"He's never run on synthetics, but he trained on it at Keeneland and absolutely loved it," Farmer said. "I'd say if we go - if I can get our trainer there - it would be in the Classic. There is a question about Santa Anita and its new track, but all the stuff I've heard so far has been positive. We'd love to run against Big Brown and Curlin if he is in the shape he was in the Whitney. He's got the fastest Beyer under a mile and over a mile."

Farmer's comment about "if I can get our trainer there" was in reference to Nick Zito, who is not a big proponent of synthetics. But when asked who would make the final decision on whether to send Commentator to the Breeders' Cup, Farmer said, "I would say the owner of the horse makes that decision."

Assuming Commentator runs well at the MassCap and comes out of it fine, the Classic field could potentially have three huge names - Big Brown, Curlin and Commentator. And that's just the beginning.

Also decent possibilities for the $5 million event are Travers winner Colonel John, Pacific Classic winner Go Between, San Diego and San Antonio Handicap winner Well Armed, Japanese ace Casino Drive, European turf stars Henrythenavigator and Duke of Marmalade, Travers runner-up Mambo in Seattle, the always game Student Council, battled-tested Tiago, talented 3-year-old Pyro, and don't forget about the possibility of undefeated filly Zenyatta. Also on Sept. 17, Larry Jones said Philip Iselin winner Honest Man might be pointed towards the Classic.

Now, if that doesn't get your juices flowing, you're not a racing fan!

There are still many questions to be answered in the next five weeks, but at least now the Classic seems to be back on everyone's radar.

You see, I told you all this complaining about the synthetic surface would play itself out. Just sit back, relax and enjoy...

Are You Excited About the Monmouth Stakes?

jshandler — Fri, 12 Sep 2008 16:53:00 GMT

I have mixed feeling about Big Brown racing in the newly-created Monmouth Stakes this weekend.

On one hand, I am happy to see the Derby winner running at all. After the Belmont, most of us probably thought there was little chance he would ever see the racetrack again, especially considering the fragility of his feet. I've said this many times before, I give Mike Iavarone a lot of credit for continuing to run Big Brown since he really has nothing to gain and everything to lose, financially speaking. So in this respect, I guess we should all be happy that he is even racing at all.

I can also appreciate the connections wanting to run Big Brown on turf as a prep for the Breeders' Cup Classic. Those tender feet are probably worse than they are letting on. Rick Dutrow admitted the other day that "he's not a horse that wakes up ready to roll." Those lingering quarter cracks are a very real issue to contend with and the grass is simply an easier surface for Big Brown to run on. I get it.

Finally, I understand the main goal here is the Classic. That is the race which will decide Horse of the Year and carries a $5 million purse. Everything between now and then doesn't matter much to Iavarone and Co. They want their ideal six weeks of rest heading into the big race. I understand.

Admitting all of the above, part of me still thinks the connections took the easy way out the second half of his 3-year-old season and that should count against them. First, they showed up at the Haskell and completely bypassed Saratoga. That is questionable. Saratoga is where champions go.

This latest move to turf I am okay with, but if that is the path you want to take, at least show up in a graded stakes race. There were plenty of options - The Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at Belmont and the Clement Hirsch Turf Championship at Santa Anita, both on Sept. 27. Or, if they wanted a true prep for the Classic, how about the Goodwood on the same surface he will see in October? Four weeks of rest should be plenty for the Classic, despite what Dutrow says.

Heck, I would have even been fine with the Kentucky Cup Turf this weekend at Kentucky Downs. At least it's a grade III and I'm sure Kentucky Downs would have increased the purse, like Monmouth did.

I would have been okay with any of those options. Instead, they had Monmouth create a new race for them, one that really is a just a glorified allowance race with a big purse. There are a couple proven horses in here, but no grade I winners and nothing Big Brown can't destroy if he is on the top of his game. I have been critical of Curlin's connections in the past as well, but at least when they moved him to turf they chose an established race. There is something to be said for that.

I expect the Derby winner and probable 3-year-old champion to show up against the best. The Haskell wasn't the spot. The Travers was. The Monmouth Stakes isn't the spot. Santa Anita or Belmont was.

I'm wondering how many of you feel about the race this weekend. After all, we are getting to see Big Brown run on turf, which should be fun no matter where it is or what the race is called. But are you excited? Or did this spot turn you off? I have mixed feelings.

If you are planning on betting the race, here is my take on "That Handicapping Show."

Sprint Division Becomes Wide-Open

jshandler — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 18:01:00 GMT

With so many divisions seemingly wide-open for the Breeders' Cup, there was at least one that we thought we had a pretty good grasp on. The Sprint.

Not anymore.

In the last seven days the Sprint went from being a division with two clear-cut favorites, to one with more questions than perhaps any other division.

First, defending champ Midnight Lute's comeback was derailed last weekend at Del Mar, as he finished a disappointing 10^th in the Pat O'Brien Handicap. It left serious questions as to whether he is the same horse who won the 2007 BC Sprint and Eclipse Award, and if he is suited for running well on synthetics. Stay tuned there.

More stunningly, we learned on Wednesday that Benny the Bull has been retired. We were all looking forward to watching him in the Forego and pointing towards the Breeders' Cup, where he was going to attend to some unfinished business. But now the best sprinter in the world, who had won five straight, is no longer in the mix and it has left a gaping hole in the division.

So where does this leave the sprint division? Well, I guess the new favorite becomes Street Boss, who has also won five straight and is a synthetic specialist. His closing style is very much like Benny the Bull's and now the Bruce Headley trainee looks to have the edge on the rest.

Lucky Island also becomes a major contender. The Argentine-bred has won four in a row, including two in graded company and may have more talent than Street Boss. But will he like the surface? Same goes for the undefeated Bustin Stones, who has gone gate-to-wire in all five dirt starts. But he hasn't run since April.

One horse it would be wise not to forget about is Fabulous Strike, who when healthy, might be faster than any of these. I talked to trainer Todd Beattie about the 5-year-old Smart Strike gelding today, and he said all systems are go.

Fabulous Strike, who has won 10 of 15 starts but has raced just once this year, has been scratched from his last two starts, including the Vanderbilt. Beattie said Fabulous Strike had a bad foot bruise that required work and some rest, but he is now on target for the Sept. 27 Vosburgh, a race that he won by nearly six lengths last year. The Breeders' Cup is definitely the goal.

"He's training fantastic," said Beattie, who is based out of Pennsylvania and has Fabulous Strike stabled at Presque Isle Downs. "He's right on schedule for the Vosburgh. We've had some bumps in the road, but the good news is that we'll have a real fresh horse for the Breeders' Cup. I have a lot of confidence in him and now it seems like the division is open to anybody."

One other we must not forget is J Be K. The 3-year-old faltered in the King's Bishop but he is still a force with his electric speed.

It should be an interesting two months.

Division Leaders

jshandler — Tue, 12 Aug 2008 21:26:00 GMT

We're now a little more than five weeks into the Breeders' Cup season and the divisions are beginning to take shape. The continuing story thus far is how the male division seemingly gets more ordinary every day while the female division continues to get more exciting. Unless this Big Brown-Curlin thing actually happens, there is no doubt the Ladies Classic will be much more interesting come late October. I forget, what day is the Ladies Classic being run? Never mind.

Anyway, with about two more months of Breeders' Challenge events left to go, I thought it would be a good idea to take a look at a few of the divisions. Let's do our best to rank the top 3 American-based horses in each one. Here goes:

Classic

1. Curlin - You still have to give him the edge even though we have no idea if Jess Jackson will send him to Santa Anita.

2. Big Brown - Looking forward to seeing the spot they pick for him. Something tells me it will be the Pennsylvania Derby.

3. Commentator - He ran the year's top Beyer (119) so you have to respect him. Looks like he'll go to the Mass Cap next month and point towards the Classic. But can he get 1 1/4 miles?

Don't forget about: Henrythenavigator - He's won four consecutive group I races and some say he is the best horse in the world. Aidan O'Brian says he will point towards this race, which should spice things up.

Ladies Classic

1. Ginger Punch - She's the champ. Until someone proves otherwise, I'm ranking her above Zenyatta.

2 . Zenyatta - Undefeated and getting better. Has a huge advantage because of the synthetics.

3. Music Note - Looking forward to this weekend's Alabama. She might be the best of them all.

Don't forget about: Hystericalady. She lost by a nose in the '07 Distaff and is even better this year.

Tough for me to leave out Proud Spell and Little Belle, but what can you do?

Turf

1. Red Rocks - Won the best U.S. turf race this year.

2. Gio Ponti - Hasn't faced grade I company yet, but a star in the making.

3. Einstein - Had a poor start in the Million, but the loss was more than just that.

Don't forget about: Any European. The Americans will have their hands full against all of them. All three that took money in Arlington Million might be back for BC.

Filly & Mare Turf

1. Mauralakana - Gotta love her. She just knows how to get it done.

2. Forever Together - Diana was no fluke.

3. Black Mamba - Not BC nominated, but owners will probably fork over the cash.

Don't forget about: J'ray: She narrowly lost to Mauralakana twice.

Sprint

1. Benny the Bull: All he does is win. The way he powers down the stretch is breathtaking.

2. J Be K - Has never lost at less than a mile.

3. Street Boss - That's five in a row for the synthetic specialist.

Don't forget about: Kodiak Kowboy: Highly-touted as a 2-year-old, he might be coming into his own.

Mile

1. Kip Deville: Pure miler is lightly-raced this year, but will be primed and ready for Santa Anita.

2. Daytona -Tired in American Handicap. A mile might be his best distance.

3. Monzante - Just beginning to hit his best stride.

Don't forget about: Red Giant: Very impressive off a 10-month layoff. Not sure what his best distance is, but Pletcher will figure it out.

More division rankings to come later...

Curlin vs. Big Brown in BC Turf May Be the Only Way They Meet

jshandler — Wed, 06 Aug 2008 01:01:00 GMT

Curlin vs. Big Brown: Every racing fan in the nation wants to see it. It's a match-up that would be great for the sport and would give the industry a huge shot in the arm.

The only problem is, with every passing day the chances of it happening seem to grow slimmer.

From where I sit, the only realistic way it happens is Oct. 25 in the Breeders' Cup Turf. That's right, the Turf, not the Classic.

Based on the comments of Jess Jackson and Mike Iavarone over the past two days, here's what we know:

Curlin will go in the Woodward on Aug. 30. Most of us are in agreement that this is a logical place for Big Brown to meet Curlin, as it gives him four weeks rest and it's at Saratoga, the best meet in the world. The only problem is, Iavarone said he is looking for a turf race for Big Brown, some time in mid-September. I have yet to hear his reasoning for this, but can only assume it is to prep him for a run on the synthetic at Santa Anita and possibly to ease his troubled feet.

If Big Brown goes in a turf race in mid-September that takes out the possibility of the two meeting in Curlin's next tilt, which based on Jackson's comments today, could be the Jockey Club Gold Cup on Sept. 27. He also gave a few other possibilities, including the Sept. 20 Mass Cap, but either way, he won't be meeting Big Brown in September. The timing just isn't right.

If you heard Jackson speak today, which I did, you will know that the possibility of him running Curlin on the synthetic Pro-Ride at Santa Anita is very slim. Here is a little bit of what he said:

"I'd like to go (to the Classic). I'm a native Californian. But it's on an untested surface. It causes great concern. Why run a horse like Curlin that is on a surface that's undefined? We've won the Classic - been there, done that. (If we did go), I would love to have a prep race on the exact surface, but it doesn't appear we will be able to. We would probably only be able to exercise on it a few times."

He is scared to death to race Curlin on that surface. He made that very clear in his lengthy media conference. Could he have a change of heart? Sure, anything is possible. But don't count on it.

Where does all this leave us? The only logical place is the Breeders Cup Turf. For it to happen, Big Brown will need to win his mid-September race and look good doing it. That would give Iavarone all the confidence he needs to stick Big Brown in the BC Turf, for what would be his final race. It would also be more acceptable to Jackson, who was clear today when he said Curlin could very easily go back to racing on turf, despite his losing effort in the Man o' War.

It would also be very attractive to both because of the historical ramifications. Can you imagine if the Derby and Preakness winner won his his final career race in the BC Turf and beat the reigning Horse of the Year doing it?Or, if the 2007 BC Classic winner ended his career by winning the 2008 BC Turf, defeating the probable 3-year-old champion doing it? Both would be unprecidented and amazing accomplishments.

Other than Iavarone having a change of heart and deciding to run Big Brown in the Woodward, I can see no other way that these two meet. And if that is the case, I think I speak for all of us when I say, what a shame that would be.

Q & A With Lava Man Trainer Doug O'Neill

jshandler — Thu, 31 Jul 2008 22:21:00 GMT

On Wednesday it was announced that one of the nation's favorite horses, Lava Man, would be retired due to ankle problems, which were discovered shortly after he finished sixth in the July 20 Eddie Read Handicap at Del Mar.

The 7-year-old Slew City Slew gelding was 17-8-5 from 46 starts and earned $5,268,706 in his remarkable career. He is best known for winning a record-tying three consecutive Hollywood Gold Cups, a mark he shares only with Native Diver. Lava Man also collected two Santa Anita Handicaps, and seven grade I events overall. He won seven consecutive California stakes in 2006. Third all-time for earnings by a California-bred, he won more than $5 million after being claimed by STD Racing and Jason Wood in August of 2004, shattering the record for most money earned after being claimed.

One day after the retirement was announced I caught up with his trainer Doug O'Neill for a short question and answer session.

JS: Did you kind of suspect that something was wrong after the Eddie Read Handicap?

DO: Not at all. He had been training so good coming into that race, so I knew he was fit. He just didn't have it after six furlongs. We were disappointed with the results, but he came out of the race fine. It was a head-scratcher, which led us to more diagnostic testing. The radiographs showed that his ankles were still sound, but there were noticeable changes going on. That is always a concern, so we knew we had to do right by him and retire him.

JS: What were the emotions of yourself and his owners after you made the decision?

DO: It was mixed. We realized how grateful we were to be involved with a seven-time grade I winner and a true champion. We were also happy to be retiring a sound horse. At the same time there is definitely some sadness. We'll miss not being able to talk about his next race and that buzz that came on race days.

JS: What kind of fan reaction have you gotten so far?

DO: Most fans that have approached me are happy that we did right by him. They will also miss him racing, but seeing him retire soundly is more important.

JS: What are the plans for him in retirement?

DO: The tentative plan is for him to go to the farm for six months. I'm not sure which farm yet, but wherever he goes he'll just chill out for a while. After that, I would like to re-break him and have him as a stable pony around the barn. That would be unbelievable. To have him as a chaperon for these younger horses and pass on what he has learned would be such a great benefit.

JS: A few fans have asked about Lava Man's temperament. How would you describe him?

DO: He definitely had a lot of energy. Not in a hurtful way, but he let you know he was there. He was always the first one up in the morning. The night watch people could write a book on what he did between the hours of 2 and 5 a.m. He was very active in his stall and just an overall eager horse. He always wanted to be the first to the track. He also did a lot of posing, kind of like he knew the cameras were there.

JS: He was obviously talented, but what were some of the characteristics that made Lava Man so good?

DO: He thrived on the pressures of big races. He knew when they mattered. From an ability standpoint, he had so much natural speed and stamina. He had a very unique style in that he could run you into the ground early and you couldn't catch him late. The other thing is that he was very sound. It is so important to have that consistency.

JS: Lava Man did not start getting very good until he was 4. Looking back, when did you first notice him turning a corner?

DO: It's been so long ago, but I seem to remember when I put blinkers on him that really helped. Also, I dropped him into that $100,000 claimer (May 14, 2005) and that really seemed to get him going. He gained a lot of confidence after that.

JS: There have been so many great moments and memories. What stands out most for you?

DO: Well, being able to recover so quickly after the Japan race was remarkable. He battled foot problems after he came back here and most horses would have needed months back at the farm to recover. With the help of the shoer and the groom, he came back in 60 or 70 days (to win the Sunshine Millions Classic). That was just unbelievable. Also, the three Gold Cup wins are definitely a highlight. To win just one of those would be special, but three was unreal.

JS: Part of what makes the Lava Man story so special is because he was claimed. What do you recall about that?

DO: That was all Steve (Kenly, co-owner). He deserves the credit there. In fact, I told him he was crazy at the time (laughs). He said I don't care what you say, as long as he looks good in the paddock, I want him. I was allowed to spend $62,500, but we got him for $50,000.

JS: The former owners (Lonnie Arterburn, and Eve and Kim Kuhlmann) could have become bitter over losing a horse that has earned so much, but have always handled the situation so well. That must have made the situation easier for you.

DO: They are such classy people. What also helped is that they bred him, so they gained many breeding awards and other notoriety, and they still had an interest in his success. They were proud every time he won because they broke him and developed him. They deserve much of the credit.

JS: You have had some great horses in your career. Is Lava Man the best, both in terms of desire and talent?

DO: He is certainly the best desire-wise. He is truly a remarkable horse and his consistency is what separates him. Talent-wise, I'm not sure. That's hard. But he is definitely up there. We all feel very fortunate to be a part of him.

Win or Lose, Curlin is a Rock Star

jshandler — Sun, 13 Jul 2008 20:25:00 GMT

I wasn't at Belmont Park on Saturday to witness Curlin's turf debut, but I sure wish I was. Based on my conversations with friends who were, it was a very special atmosphere - one that doesn't come around too often this day and age.

The 2007 Horse of the Year was applauded by adoring fans in the paddock, when he came onto the track, throughout the Man o' War and even after he came up short to Red Rocks. Not that I wasn't aware of this before yesterday, but he truly is a beloved figure across the country. I first realized that when he was brought out for fans at this year's Kentucky Derby and given a standing ovation. It was a great moment.

Curlin is racing's version of a rock star. And we haven't had one of those for a while - at least one who raced beyond the age of three.

The fact that Curlin did not win in his first test on turf didn't matter all that much. Sure it was disappointing to fans, but the important thing was that we got to see him run, and he generated excitement. How much do we need this after the year we've had?

I've been preaching this for a while, just as many of you have been too, but the single biggest problem we have in racing right now is that we don't get to see our superstars run as older horses. I am confident that new medication rules will be in place soon and we will figure out how to keep our horses safer. That part of racing is headed in the right direction. What I don't think we'll have an answer for any time soon is how to solve the dilemma of retiring our superstars after their 3-year-old season. It is absolutely killing our sport.

Point Given, War Emblem, Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex, Bernardini, Street Sense, Hard Spun, and pretty soon, Big Brown. Just off the top of my head, these are horses that the public would have flocked to the track to see as older horses, but were, or will be retired, after their 3-year-old season. Of course, this list does not count Barbaro and Rags to Riches, whose injuries robbed all of us of what was sure to be more greatness.

Don't get me wrong: There are plenty of older horses who are doing great things this year. This past weekend alone got see 5-year-olds Benny the Bull and Kip Deville win big races. Both of them are very fun to watch and seem to be getting better with age. Later today we get to see exciting mares Hystericalady and Unbridled Belle square off in the Delaware Handicap. In fact, there are a lot of older horses - especially those that race on the turf - that generate excitement around the country.

But in America we love our Classic horses. They are the ones that captivate us. The ones that we give standing ovations to in the paddock. That actually get air time on Sportscenter when they race. We need them.

The question is, how can we get more of them to race as older horses? The solution remains unclear. As a writer, I'm not about to criticize an owner for retiring a horse when they are being offered $40-50 million. How can you walk away from that kind of money?

One suggestion which has been bandied about is for racing to pass a rule that says no horse can be bred until age 5. It will solve the racing problem and also help to strengthen horses from a breeding aspect, which has also come under fire recently. On paper, it sounds great. Realistically, it has little chance of happening. We would need a unified governing body to even start thinking about it. Let's not go down that road...

So until then, we're just going to have to enjoy Curlin for the rest of his career, which will most likely be only three or four more races. From a selfish standpoint, I hope they move him back to the dirt so we can all see his last race here, not in Japan or France. After all, it might be a long time before we see another rock star.

Handicapping the July 12-13 Races

jshandler — Thu, 10 Jul 2008 20:16:00 GMT

As racing fans, we can't ask for much more than what's on tap this weekend. We get Curlin in his first turf start in the Man o' War, a full day of stakes at Calder, a full weekend of stakes at Delaware, great turf racing at Arlington and the Swaps at Hollywood. What a stellar card!

For our purposes we will focus on the Breeders' Cup Challenge events - the Smile Sprint and Princess Rooney Saturday at Calder, and the Delaware Handicap on Sunday.

Don't forget to join the Breeders' Cup Fantasy Challenge on breederscup.com and email me your handle. To be eligible for my contest, I'll need your handle by July 14. Also, in event of a tie there will be a tiebreaker contest that will be explained at a later date.

Also, here is the first edition of "That Handicapping Show," a new video that I do with Tom LaMarra. Let me know what you think.

Let's get handicapping!

Princess Rooney

This is a very interesting and challenging race. The way I see it, five of the seven starters have a decent chance of winning. My decision came down to Dream Rush, Mistical Plan and Miraculous Miss.

I think Dream Rush is the class of the field and will improve a lot in her second start of the season. Looky Yonder, who beat Dream Rush in the Vagrancy, will regress. Mistical Plan tries six furlongs for the first time since breaking her maiden in 2006 and with her early speed, she looks very appetizing. Miraculous Miss hasn't won since 2006 but has been improving while racing in grade I company and has thrown in a pair of bullet works the last two weeks.

The pick: Because Dream Rush will be bet down to nothing, I have to take a shot at a bigger price. I'm going to take a chance with Miraculous Miss. She was less than four lengths back of Benny the Bull when taking on the boys two races ago in the Frank De Francis Memorial Dash in November, finishing a respectable third. Then, trainer Steve Klesaris threw her into the grade I Humana Distaff after a more than six month layoff May 3 on Derby Day and she finished strong despite being fourth. With a quick pace in here, I think this race will set up well for a closer like Miraculous Miss. And the price should be right.

Smile Sprint

Speaking of Benny the Bull, how do you bet against this monster? I'll tell you how, you go for a price. Even if he wins it won't cost you much in the contest. He'll probably be odds-on and pay about $4 to win. It's the perfect spot to try to beat him.

The question is, with who? I took the hardest looks at Man of Danger, Indian Chant, Ravalo and Rockerfeller. Man of Danger has been runner-up in his last four events, three of them in graded company. He'll be on or near the lead again, but will he hold up? Indian Chant is a tough customer. This 5-year-old gelding isn't as tested as many of these, but he is always right there and six furlongs is his specialty. Ravalo has won three in a row and six of seven against lesser. The 4-year-old will likely battle Man of Danger for the lead and is probably a little bit faster. Rockerfeller seems to be hitting his best stride since Marty Wolfson took over this year, and he loves Calder.

The Pick: I'm going with Rockerfeller. This 4-year-old was stuck in allowance company while running on the Woodbine Polytrack nearly all of last year, without great success. He started off poorly when shipped to Fair Grounds late last year, but seems to have found a home on the Calder dirt. He won by six in optional claiming company in May and by seven in his stakes debut last month. He has posted two straight 100-plus Beyers. He has also tossed in two tremendous works. I love betting horses in top form.

Delaware Handicap

Great race here. Hystericalady and Unbridled Belle are at their best and the class of this field. But what price will we get on them?

Unbridled Belle won last year's Delaware ‘Cap and two of her graded stakes three wins have come at this track. But for me Hystericalady is the better horse. She has fared better in graded company throughout her career and enters off a 7 1/2-length romp in the Fleur de Lis. And she should have won the Humana Distaff.

The only other horse I considered here was Spring Waltz, who is a lightly-raced 5-year-old mare but has been dominating in winning her last four. She was much the best in her stakes debut - the Rampart Handicap at Oaklawn. But that was more than four months ago.

The Pick: With a quality field in here I don't think anyone will get hit too hard at the window. I can't pick against Hystericalady. She is 3-1 on the morning line and if I get anything close to that I'll be satisfied. Jerry Hollendorfer always has his horses ready. She is a five-time graded stakes winner, is in top form, threw in a bullet work a few days ago, and will probably appreciate the added distance.

Your picks?