Handicapping the July 12-13 Races

jshandler — Thu, 10 Jul 2008 20:16:00 GMT

As racing fans, we can't ask for much more than what's on tap this weekend. We get Curlin in his first turf start in the Man o' War, a full day of stakes at Calder, a full weekend of stakes at Delaware, great turf racing at Arlington and the Swaps at Hollywood. What a stellar card!

For our purposes we will focus on the Breeders' Cup Challenge events - the Smile Sprint and Princess Rooney Saturday at Calder, and the Delaware Handicap on Sunday.

Don't forget to join the Breeders' Cup Fantasy Challenge on breederscup.com and email me your handle. To be eligible for my contest, I'll need your handle by July 14. Also, in event of a tie there will be a tiebreaker contest that will be explained at a later date.

Also, here is the first edition of "That Handicapping Show," a new video that I do with Tom LaMarra. Let me know what you think.

Let's get handicapping!

Princess Rooney

This is a very interesting and challenging race. The way I see it, five of the seven starters have a decent chance of winning. My decision came down to Dream Rush, Mistical Plan and Miraculous Miss.

I think Dream Rush is the class of the field and will improve a lot in her second start of the season. Looky Yonder, who beat Dream Rush in the Vagrancy, will regress. Mistical Plan tries six furlongs for the first time since breaking her maiden in 2006 and with her early speed, she looks very appetizing. Miraculous Miss hasn't won since 2006 but has been improving while racing in grade I company and has thrown in a pair of bullet works the last two weeks.

The pick: Because Dream Rush will be bet down to nothing, I have to take a shot at a bigger price. I'm going to take a chance with Miraculous Miss. She was less than four lengths back of Benny the Bull when taking on the boys two races ago in the Frank De Francis Memorial Dash in November, finishing a respectable third. Then, trainer Steve Klesaris threw her into the grade I Humana Distaff after a more than six month layoff May 3 on Derby Day and she finished strong despite being fourth. With a quick pace in here, I think this race will set up well for a closer like Miraculous Miss. And the price should be right.

Smile Sprint

Speaking of Benny the Bull, how do you bet against this monster? I'll tell you how, you go for a price. Even if he wins it won't cost you much in the contest. He'll probably be odds-on and pay about $4 to win. It's the perfect spot to try to beat him.

The question is, with who? I took the hardest looks at Man of Danger, Indian Chant, Ravalo and Rockerfeller. Man of Danger has been runner-up in his last four events, three of them in graded company. He'll be on or near the lead again, but will he hold up? Indian Chant is a tough customer. This 5-year-old gelding isn't as tested as many of these, but he is always right there and six furlongs is his specialty. Ravalo has won three in a row and six of seven against lesser. The 4-year-old will likely battle Man of Danger for the lead and is probably a little bit faster. Rockerfeller seems to be hitting his best stride since Marty Wolfson took over this year, and he loves Calder.

The Pick: I'm going with Rockerfeller. This 4-year-old was stuck in allowance company while running on the Woodbine Polytrack nearly all of last year, without great success. He started off poorly when shipped to Fair Grounds late last year, but seems to have found a home on the Calder dirt. He won by six in optional claiming company in May and by seven in his stakes debut last month. He has posted two straight 100-plus Beyers. He has also tossed in two tremendous works. I love betting horses in top form.

Delaware Handicap

Great race here. Hystericalady and Unbridled Belle are at their best and the class of this field. But what price will we get on them?

Unbridled Belle won last year's Delaware ‘Cap and two of her graded stakes three wins have come at this track. But for me Hystericalady is the better horse. She has fared better in graded company throughout her career and enters off a 7 1/2-length romp in the Fleur de Lis. And she should have won the Humana Distaff.

The only other horse I considered here was Spring Waltz, who is a lightly-raced 5-year-old mare but has been dominating in winning her last four. She was much the best in her stakes debut - the Rampart Handicap at Oaklawn. But that was more than four months ago.

The Pick: With a quality field in here I don't think anyone will get hit too hard at the window. I can't pick against Hystericalady. She is 3-1 on the morning line and if I get anything close to that I'll be satisfied. Jerry Hollendorfer always has his horses ready. She is a five-time graded stakes winner, is in top form, threw in a bullet work a few days ago, and will probably appreciate the added distance.

Your picks?

Racing's Second Season

jshandler — Mon, 07 Jul 2008 03:28:00 GMT

Welcome to Breeders' Cup Chat and the second half of the Thoroughbred racing season! While sometimes not as glamorous as the Triple Crown season, the road to the Breeders' Cup offers some of the best racing around, including turf events galore, seldom seen ‘marathon' routes, and of course, two of the best meets in the world - Saratoga and Del Mar.

There have been many changes to the Breeders' Cup during the past couple of years, most notably the addition of a second day of racing and the advent of the Breeders' Cup Challenge "Win and You're In" series, which increased from 25 races to 57 this year.

Personally, I love the changes. Adding more races on the second day, more divisions, and additional "Win and You're In" events will make things that much more exciting. When the announcement of more races first came, Blood-Horse did interviews with many of the high-profile trainers in the industry. Somewhat surprisingly, nearly every one endorsed the change. That told me all I needed to know. The Breeders' Cup is doing a great job of selling its product and trying to generate interest. This is precisely what racing needs. Let's focus on the good in the sport and not the negative stuff. The RACING is what real fans want to see and talk about. Let's do our part in keeping that going.

One of the things I love about this season is the Breeders' Cup Fantasy Challenge. Based on my conversations with many of you, I am not the only one who enjoys this contest. Basically, it gives us an opportunity to pick the winner in every one of the Breeders' Cup Challenge races, with a chance at winning some serious prizes. If you haven't already signed up, you can do so here.

Now, I don't expect to win any of these prizes, but the contest does give us a cool way of following the races while competing against each other. What I'd like to do on this blog is handicap each race, post my picks the day before (or day of) each event, and then get your picks. Basically, we'll handicap these races together and then see who comes out ahead at the end of the Breeders' Cup Fantasy Challenge. It will be our own mini-contest. The top finisher on this blog will win a nice Blood-Horse prize pack that includes t-shirts, a credit to our photo store, and a couple books.

If you are going to play, please let me know what your Breeders' Cup Fantasy Challenge handle is. Mine is "Offhegoes." Don't worry if you missed the July 5 races, there is still time to join. Hundreds of people all earned $0 at Monmouth anyway. For the record, I earned $6.60 the first day, as I had both runner-ups. Here is the link to the leaderboard.

Also on this blog we'll do Q & A's from the top names in the industry, top 10 lists, and cover current racing news - just as we did on Triple Crown Talk. Mostly though, Breeders' Cup talk will be geared toward racing and handicapping. I look forward to blogging with everyone.

Any early thoughts on the Smile Sprint and/or Princess Rooney?

Breeders Cup Chat : Breeders' Cup Fantasy Challenge

Handicapping the July 12-13 Races

Racing's Second Season