Euros Have Huge Edge in BC Turf; Ready For a BC Contest?

jshandler — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 01:01:00 GMT

Do the Americans have any legitimate chance to win the second biggest race at the Breeders' Cup--the $3 million Breeders' Cup Turf? Right now, I would have to say no.

With Gio Ponti being pointed toward the Classic, it seems that most Americans are pinning their hopes on Presious Passion. Yes, he has runaway speed and hypothetically could run the closing Euros off their feet, but I ask you, is this the only legitimate threat we have to knock of a powerful trio of Euros that includes defending champ Conduit, his equally-talented stablemate Spanish Moon, and super filly Dar Re Mi, who seems to be leaning towards the Turf? As the final days approach, I'm sure there will be one or two other Euros entering the Turf as well.

Other than Presious Passion, our top contenders from what I can tell are Just as Well, who won the Northern Dancer by DQ; grisly veteran Grand Couturier; Joe Hirsch Turf Classic upsetter Interpatation; and Telling, third behind Interpatation.

Does this strike fear into anyone? Not me. The Euros are looking very, very strong for the Turf.

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Anyone interested in a Breeders' Cup contest?

Here's how it will work: On Oct. 28 (next Wednesday), pre-entries will be drawn for the two-day Breeders' Cup World Championships. Based on those pre-entries, we will have the probable fields for each race.

You will have between Oct. 28 and Nov. 2 to make your selections. Of course there are going to be a few scratches and defections as the week goes on, but if we waited until the final entries and post positions were drawn on Nov. 2 and 3, there wouldn't be enough time to calculate the picks. (I do have other work to do you know).

Anyway, here are the very simple rules:

1) Pick the winner and second place finisher in each of the 14 BC races.
2) The final tally will be based on a $2 win/$2 place bet in each race. At the end of the 14 races we will add up all the payouts and the winner will be the person with the most money in their bankroll.
3) In the event of an unlikely tie, the tiebreaker goes to the person who has the most money in the BC Classic.

*Note: The scoring is not complicated, but to be clear if you pick, let's say, Einstein to win the BC Classic and he finishes second, you get no money for that pick. He would have to win. Or, if you pick Forever Together to finish second in the F&M Turf and she wins, you will only get her second place money. Understand?

The rules are very simple. The pari-mutuel system rewards players who pick longshots instead of just all favorites.

Let me know if there are any questions. I will remind everyone of the contest on Oct. 28 when pre-entries are released.

Send all picks to me at jshandler@bloodhorse.com

The winner, aside from having bragging rights, will get to write a guest blog about any topic that they wish. Of course, it is subject to editing. I'll also see what I can come up with as far as other prizes, although at this time I cannot promise anything specific.

Curlin vs. Big Brown in BC Turf May Be the Only Way They Meet

jshandler — Wed, 06 Aug 2008 01:01:00 GMT

Curlin vs. Big Brown: Every racing fan in the nation wants to see it. It's a match-up that would be great for the sport and would give the industry a huge shot in the arm.

The only problem is, with every passing day the chances of it happening seem to grow slimmer.

From where I sit, the only realistic way it happens is Oct. 25 in the Breeders' Cup Turf. That's right, the Turf, not the Classic.

Based on the comments of Jess Jackson and Mike Iavarone over the past two days, here's what we know:

Curlin will go in the Woodward on Aug. 30. Most of us are in agreement that this is a logical place for Big Brown to meet Curlin, as it gives him four weeks rest and it's at Saratoga, the best meet in the world. The only problem is, Iavarone said he is looking for a turf race for Big Brown, some time in mid-September. I have yet to hear his reasoning for this, but can only assume it is to prep him for a run on the synthetic at Santa Anita and possibly to ease his troubled feet.

If Big Brown goes in a turf race in mid-September that takes out the possibility of the two meeting in Curlin's next tilt, which based on Jackson's comments today, could be the Jockey Club Gold Cup on Sept. 27. He also gave a few other possibilities, including the Sept. 20 Mass Cap, but either way, he won't be meeting Big Brown in September. The timing just isn't right.

If you heard Jackson speak today, which I did, you will know that the possibility of him running Curlin on the synthetic Pro-Ride at Santa Anita is very slim. Here is a little bit of what he said:

"I'd like to go (to the Classic). I'm a native Californian. But it's on an untested surface. It causes great concern. Why run a horse like Curlin that is on a surface that's undefined? We've won the Classic - been there, done that. (If we did go), I would love to have a prep race on the exact surface, but it doesn't appear we will be able to. We would probably only be able to exercise on it a few times."

He is scared to death to race Curlin on that surface. He made that very clear in his lengthy media conference. Could he have a change of heart? Sure, anything is possible. But don't count on it.

Where does all this leave us? The only logical place is the Breeders Cup Turf. For it to happen, Big Brown will need to win his mid-September race and look good doing it. That would give Iavarone all the confidence he needs to stick Big Brown in the BC Turf, for what would be his final race. It would also be more acceptable to Jackson, who was clear today when he said Curlin could very easily go back to racing on turf, despite his losing effort in the Man o' War.

It would also be very attractive to both because of the historical ramifications. Can you imagine if the Derby and Preakness winner won his his final career race in the BC Turf and beat the reigning Horse of the Year doing it?Or, if the 2007 BC Classic winner ended his career by winning the 2008 BC Turf, defeating the probable 3-year-old champion doing it? Both would be unprecidented and amazing accomplishments.

Other than Iavarone having a change of heart and deciding to run Big Brown in the Woodward, I can see no other way that these two meet. And if that is the case, I think I speak for all of us when I say, what a shame that would be.

Breeders Cup Chat : Breeders' Cup Turf

Euros Have Huge Edge in BC Turf; Ready For a BC Contest?

Curlin vs. Big Brown in BC Turf May Be the Only Way They Meet