Breeders Cup Chat : Colonel John

Don't Read Too Much Into Works

jshandler — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 22:24:00 GMT

"It was perfect."

"He's as fit and sharp as he's ever been."

"He's ready to roll."

These were the comments of Chip Woolley, Eoin Harty, and Bob Baffert, respectively, right after each of their BC Classic starters turned in their final works. Woolley, who has Mine That Bird, Harty (Colonel John), and Baffert (Richard's Kid), all sounded extremely confident that their horses would run the race of their lives on Nov. 7.

Later, I ran into Helen Pitts and she too was optimistic that Einstein would turn in a big one based on his recent training.

It was at that point that I bumped into a colleague and he and I shared the same thought: Has any trainer ever publicly said that their horse's work "wasn't what they wanted" or "left something to be desired?" If they have, I can't remember.

My point is, often times we tend to make too much of works, especially during big events like the Kentucky Derby and the Breeders' Cup. Each one is picked over in critical fashion, and the fact is, most times you'll find observers saying the same thing: "Wow, he looked great." Or, "he's getting over the track really well."

From a handicapping perspective, the works are often overrated. Baffert said it best: "I'm happy the way that he's been working, but you know, it's not the way they look in the morning that matters; it's who shows up on race day."

In the Classic especially, we are all looking for any edge we can get. It's one of the toughest Classics to handicap in a long time. There are so many variables with each horse--Zenyatta going against males at a new distance, Gio Ponti switching from turf, the Euros running on synthetics for the first time, Mine That Bird and Summer Bird facing elders, and so on and so forth. Works are part of the equation, but they are not everything. You will need to go much deeper with your handicapping in this race, and then you'll still need some luck to win.

For what it's worth, in my opinion, Richard's Kid's work was visually more impressive than anyone. He looked like an express train in the stretch.

But then again, you know what they say--all of them looked great.

___________

Quote of the morning went to Baffert, who when commenting on the time it took him to acclimate his training to synthetic surfaces said: "The first year they put Polytrack in at Del Mar I thought I was going to have to quit training and get a job selling shoes at Nordstrom."

Back tomorrow afternoon with thoughts on the draw and more...

Weekend Analysis: A Grade I Bonanza

jshandler — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 16:23:00 GMT

What a simply spectacular weekend of racing we have ahead of us--Opening weekend of Keeneland, six grade I races from Santa Anita, and a pair of major 2-year-old races at Belmont. Other than Derby and Breeders' Cup week, and opening weekend of Saratoga, there may be no better racing weekend on the calendar. Enjoy.

There are way too many races to analyze in depth so I'll keep it short and look forward to your comments and analysis of all the action.

Keeneland

In the Thoroughbred Club of America it looks like a two-horse race between Informed Decision and Carlsbad. I know a lot of people think Carlsbad will pull the minor upset but I am not one of them. Informed Decision is 3-for-3 at Keeneland and should be able to wear down Carlsbad, who could get pressure up front from Bold Union. Informed Decision for the win.

Forever Together is also unbeaten in two starts at Keeneland and should make it 3-for-3 in the First Lady, no matter how the turf is. She won this race last year and will rebound from her tough defeat last out. Acoma needs another race and Diamondrella has regressed a bit since the beginning of the year. Tizaqueena is the one I'll use in my exotics with Forever Together. She should enjoy the cut back in distance and could carry the lead a long way.

The Breeders' Futurity is a crapshoot. Two-year-old races on synthetics are tough enough to figure out without having 14 horses in the field. In this case, I'll try to beat the favorites--Dixie Band and Backtalk. I like Make Music For Me, who ships in from Cali with two good stakes efforts under his belt, Hockley, runner-up to Dublin two back, and Stately Victor, who comes off a route win on the turf.

The condition of the turf could play a big factor in the Shadwell Turf Mile. Mr. Sidney and Justenuffhumor like it soft, which it very well could be. As good as Justenuffhumor has been lately I think he is best suited for longer. On paper, Court Vision has regressed this season, but he was struggling with a health issue that was corrected with surgery in July. Despite not being at his best all year he has held his own in most of his five grade I races. He's back to 100% for this with an eye towards the Breeders' Cup. Adds blinkers and should be ready to run a big one. Hopefully the ground stays firm.

In Sunday's Spinster, I'll go against Swift Temper, who is unproven over Poly and does not have a work there this week. I'll go with the English shipper, Proviso, making her first start in the U.S. She has run some big races in France, including a group III win last out.

Santa Anita

As we talked about on That Handicapping Show, there are many ways to go in a wide-open Goodwood. I like Parading, who makes his third start in Cali for Shug. He had a wide trip in the Pacific Classic and was still beat less than two lengths. He makes his first start at Santa Anita, but has been working well there. He has a big win over the Poly at Keeneland earlier this year. The cut back should benefit him and he gets Bejarano back. I'm hoping he doesn't get too much action, as I like him to win at a price.

I also like Colonel John, who is 3-for-5 at Santa Anita and makes his third start off a layoff, and Monzante, who ran some big numbers last year and was solid in his first start of the season last month. Tiago will be in all of my trifectas too. Mine That Bird is a throw out for me. He faces older horses for the first time and is in over his head.

Zenyatta will probably make it 13-for-13 in the Lady's Secret. I'll wait to the Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic to beat her.

Belmont

Dublin certainly looks like the real deal and all eyes will be on him in the Champagne. If he gets beat I think it will be by Homeboykris, who Dutrow says is more talented than D' Funnybone. It's a tall task for him in his stakes debut, but talent is talent. I'll box those two in an exacta.

I'm going against Awesome Maria in the Frizette. She has been terrific in her last two but had perfect trips in both. Now she has to deal with two other burners, Nonna Miss, who broke her maiden by 12, and Franny Freud, already a two-time stakes winner. I like Franny Freud, who Paul Pompa bought privately after her stakes debut in Florida. She seems to want more ground and has been working great. I hope she stays at 8-1.

Good luck to everyone this weekend. Who do you like?

Curlin Retirement Leaves a Huge Void For 2009

jshandler — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 22:06:00 GMT

The announcement earlier this week that Curlin would not race in 2009 was not a surprise, but the reality of it made me come to one disappointing realization:

Other than Zenyatta, there really aren't many top-tier older horses I am looking forward to watching next year.

With Big Brown and Curlin now out of the mix, we now have the two most popular, and arguably, the two best North American-based dirt horses retired. And that's just the beginning of it.

Some of the notable older horses who have either already been retired or will likely be retired after 2008 are Student Council, Ginger Punch, Hystericalady, Benny the Bull, Midnight Lute, Red Rocks, Evening Attire, Zanjero, Perfect Drift, Lava Man, Red Giant, Tough Tiz's Sis, Zaftig, Alwajeeha, Sealy Hill, Lewis Michael, Dreaming of Anna, Mauralakana, Heatseeker, as well as European stars Zarkava, Raven's Pass and Henrythenavigator. There is also probably a decent chance that Commentator and/or Kip Deville will be gone after their final races this year.

Kind of depressing, isn't it?

At least we have the top 3-year-olds to look forward to. Well, some of them anyway. That's because two of the top Kentucky Derby hopefuls, Vineyard Haven and Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Midshipman will winter in Dubai for Sheikh Mohammed, as well as BC Juvenile Turf winner Donativum likely going to England for Princess Haya.

Again, thank our lucky stars for Zenyatta.

Before I paint too bleak of a picture, there are still some exciting horses that should return in 2009, most of them females - Ventura, Cocoa Beach, Music Note, Proud Spell, Forever Together and Indian Blessing (Baffert's long range goal for her is the Dubai World Cup Sprint) to name a few. And, of course, there is Stardom Bound, who should only get better as a 3-year-old.

As far as the males, 3-year-olds like Colonel John, Mambo in Seattle and Denis of Cork should improve, and sprinter Fatal Bullet looks like he'll be a force. Perhaps the one older horse I am looking forward to seeing more than any other is BC Dirt Mile winner Albertus Maximus, who is set up for a big 5-year-old campaign.

l should also point out that this year is not unlike any other. The reality of horse racing today is that this is time of year when horses retire. It's the nature of the sport and we have to accept it. It's time for the new stars to make their mark.

However, it doesn't take away from the fact that the departure of Curlin, Big Brown and many of our other favorites leaves a huge void for 2009.

Handicapping The Travers

jshandler — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 19:14:00 GMT

Wide open.

That is the best way to describe the 2008 Travers. Twelve horses. None of them with credentials to suggest they deserve to be anything but "under consideration" for winning the Mid-Summer Derby. Pyro being installed as the tepid 7-2 morning line favorite underscores the uncertainty of the field.

It is both a bettors dream and nightmare at the same time. Great race to wager on, but very difficult to pluck the winner. Let's do our best to break it down.

Pyro - 7/2

Had every opportunity to run down Macho Again in the stretch of the Jim Dandy. Somehow he couldn't do it. Post 11 doesn't help and he is unproven at 12 furlongs. All that being said, he is close to regaining the form he showed before the Blue Grass. And he is the only three-time graded stakes winner in the field. Factor.

Harlem Rocker - 4/1

I think by post time he'll be the favorite. Proved he can go more than a mile in the Price of Wales. You can excuse his only loss in the Plate Trial as not liking Polytrack. Perfect 4-for-4 on dirt and ran a field best 106 Beyer in the Withers. Might just now be coming into his own after not running as a juvenile. Going to be tough to beat.

Mambo In Seattle 5/1

A little surprised he is the third choice. Love the breeding and seems to be getting better with every start, but who has he faced? He won a restricted stakes last month and a couple of allowance starts. Going to be hard for me to back him at this price.

Macho Again - 6-1

The last three Jim Dandy winners have gone on to take the Travers. Does that mean anything here? I guess, but he had a quick pace to run at last time and hasn't worked all that well leading up to this race. I'm looking elsewhere.

Da' Tara - 8-1

Got involved in suicidal pace duel with Mint Lane in the Jim Dandy. Zito was not happy. Wouldn't surprise me if Garcia let Tizbig have the lead here. Have to consider him because he is proven at the distance and his bullet work on Aug. 15. Respect.

Colonel John - 8-1

Until he proves he can win on anything other than synthetic, tough to back him. Didn't show that powerful finishing kick in the Swaps where he was third in a field of four. Harty says he is working like a monster, but I have major doubts.

Court Vision - 12-1

He is the wild card in here for me. I know I should stay away after he disappointed me in the Derby, but the Virginia Derby effort was impressive. Gio Ponti is a very good colt and Court Vision looked him in the eye. They could have gone with the easier Pa. Derby as planned, so it's a good sign those chose the Travers. Will the return to dirt benefit him? Tough call.

Cool Coal Man - 15-1

I can't see him being a factor. I've never been big on this colt. He won the Fountain of Youth and hasn't showed anything since. Pass.

Tres Borrachos - 15-1

Swaps was a nice win, but I'm not sold. It was on synthetic and was his home track. Maybe a chance to fill out bottom of exotics, but not main prize.

Tale of Ekati

I might be one of the few who still gives this colt a chance. He certainly doesn't blow you away with his stretch run, but I was impressed with his move in the Jim Dandy. Tagg is hinting that he might be ready for a big one. Loves the inside. Prado gets the mount again, will save all the ground and will be more patient this time. I know I'm nuts, but I give him a legitimate chance here.

Tizbig - 30-1

Could set the pace and lead them around for a mile, but that's all I can see. My "That Handicapping Show" co-host Evan Hammonds likes him to hit the board. Not me. We'll see.

Amped - 30-1

Zito's third starter. No thanks

The Pick: I like four horses here - Harlem Rocker, Pyro, Court Vision and Tale of Ekati. I'm going with Harlem Rocker on top, although I wouldn't play him in straight win bets because he'll likely be 7/2 or lower. To me, Harlem Rocker has the most upside. We've seen what they rest of these 3-year-olds can do, and it hasn't been all that impressive. Here is a colt that has huge upside. Pletcher has been very selective with him. If you'll remember, he thought about the Preakness and then decided to send him to Canada where he could have a little more time to develop. He seems ready now. He's working well, he's got the speed numbers, should be able to get 10 furlongs and has Coa, who knows Saratoga.

I expect Pyro to be in the mix and Court Vision to run a nice race. Tale of Ekati could disappoint like he has before, but I will include him anyway. I like the way Tagg is talking. I'll box all four in exactas and trifectas.

Good luck to all. Analysis of some of the Breeders' Cup Challenge races to come on Friday.