Breeders Cup Chat : Conduit

Contest Winner and a Breeders' Cup Wrap

jshandler — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 19:07:00 GMT

Some final thoughts on the World Championships, mainly from a handicapping perspective......(read more)

Euros Have Huge Edge in BC Turf; Ready For a BC Contest?

jshandler — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 01:01:00 GMT

Do the Americans have any legitimate chance to win the second biggest race at the Breeders' Cup--the $3 million Breeders' Cup Turf? Right now, I would have to say no.

With Gio Ponti being pointed toward the Classic, it seems that most Americans are pinning their hopes on Presious Passion. Yes, he has runaway speed and hypothetically could run the closing Euros off their feet, but I ask you, is this the only legitimate threat we have to knock of a powerful trio of Euros that includes defending champ Conduit, his equally-talented stablemate Spanish Moon, and super filly Dar Re Mi, who seems to be leaning towards the Turf? As the final days approach, I'm sure there will be one or two other Euros entering the Turf as well.

Other than Presious Passion, our top contenders from what I can tell are Just as Well, who won the Northern Dancer by DQ; grisly veteran Grand Couturier; Joe Hirsch Turf Classic upsetter Interpatation; and Telling, third behind Interpatation.

Does this strike fear into anyone? Not me. The Euros are looking very, very strong for the Turf.

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Anyone interested in a Breeders' Cup contest?

Here's how it will work: On Oct. 28 (next Wednesday), pre-entries will be drawn for the two-day Breeders' Cup World Championships. Based on those pre-entries, we will have the probable fields for each race.

You will have between Oct. 28 and Nov. 2 to make your selections. Of course there are going to be a few scratches and defections as the week goes on, but if we waited until the final entries and post positions were drawn on Nov. 2 and 3, there wouldn't be enough time to calculate the picks. (I do have other work to do you know).

Anyway, here are the very simple rules:

1) Pick the winner and second place finisher in each of the 14 BC races.
2) The final tally will be based on a $2 win/$2 place bet in each race. At the end of the 14 races we will add up all the payouts and the winner will be the person with the most money in their bankroll.
3) In the event of an unlikely tie, the tiebreaker goes to the person who has the most money in the BC Classic.

*Note: The scoring is not complicated, but to be clear if you pick, let's say, Einstein to win the BC Classic and he finishes second, you get no money for that pick. He would have to win. Or, if you pick Forever Together to finish second in the F&M Turf and she wins, you will only get her second place money. Understand?

The rules are very simple. The pari-mutuel system rewards players who pick longshots instead of just all favorites.

Let me know if there are any questions. I will remind everyone of the contest on Oct. 28 when pre-entries are released.

Send all picks to me at jshandler@bloodhorse.com

The winner, aside from having bragging rights, will get to write a guest blog about any topic that they wish. Of course, it is subject to editing. I'll also see what I can come up with as far as other prizes, although at this time I cannot promise anything specific.

Division Rankings With Two Months To Go

jshandler — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 20:02:00 GMT

With less than two months remaining until the World Championships, I thought it would be a good time to briefly go over some of the division leaders. Obviously, there is much to be decided, and like last year, the synthetic cloud hangs over the status of several horses, most notably in the Classic.

Anyway, here is what I came up with for a few divisions. It's a rough list, so Im sure I left some good horses out. (And I'm sure many of you will let me know about it). Feel free to discuss other divisions I didn't get to. Let the debating begin...

Classic

I do not think Sea the Stars, Zenyatta, or Gio Ponti will go in the Classic for one reason or another. There are many others I'm unsure about too, but my top three are probable.

1. Einstein - His solid Pacific Classic effort proved he's back.
2. Rail Trip - Will be tough in his backyard.
3. Mastercraftsman - Might be the Euros top threat.

Under consideration: Macho Again, Quality Road, Bullsbay, and Summer Bird all a notch below right now because of the synthetic question mark. Fame and Glory (Euro), Mine That Bird and Colonel John deserve consideration too.

Ladies Classic

1. Zenyatta: It's hers to lose. Can't see her going against the boys.
2. Music Note: She's back in a big way and we know she likes Santa Anita.
3. Careless Jewel: Alabama was scary good and we know she can run on synthetics.

Under consideration: Life Is Sweet, Icon Project, Seventh Street, Sara Louise, Stardom Bound

Turf

1. Gio Ponti: I think this will be the spot. He'll be a handful.
2. Conduit: Defending champ is back in top form.
3. Midships: It will be interesting to see how he comes back.

Under consideration: Obviously, Sea the Stars if he chooses this spot but I think he'll stay in Europe. Also, Spring House, Presious Passion, and Just as Well. Of course, this list doesn't include other top Euros aiming for the race, but won't know too much until after the Arc.

Filly & Mare Turf

1. Forever Together: Champ is locked and loaded again
2. Magical Fantasy: Three huge efforts in a row. Best of the West.
3. Dar Re Mi: May be best of loaded Euro contingent. Might go to Mile too.

Under consideration: Alnadana (Euro), Dynaforce, Gozzip Girl, Midday (Euro), Flying Cloud (Euro)

Mile

1. Goldikova: Hard to imagine anyone beating the defending champ right now. I wonder if her presence will discourage others from entering?
2. Justenuffhumor: Looks like McLaughlin will shorten up.
3. Battle of Hastings: A nose away from three in a row.

Under consideration: Bribon, Mr. Sidney, De Re Mi

Dirt Mile

1. Big Drama: King's Bishop was a throw out because of the wet track. But will he like Pro-Ride?
2. Informed: Pacific Classic proved he needs shorter.
3. Smooth Air: Whitney was a step back, but he is still formidable.

Under consideration: Charitable Man, Coal Play, Assessment, Mast Track, Bribon

Sprint

Zensational: Looks unbeatable on synthetics
Fabulous Strike: If it was on dirt, he'd be the pick
Kodiak Kowboy: Had a win on Poly as a juvenile

Under consideration: Capt. Candyman Can, Vineyard Haven, Pyro, Munnings, This Ones For Phil

More Close Calls With Eclipse Awards

jshandler — Wed, 17 Dec 2008 19:47:00 GMT

The voting for the 2008 Eclipse Awards began last week and writers have until Jan. 5^th to cast their ballots. The awards will be presented in Miami on Jan. 26^th.

During the past few days I have completed my homework and made up my mind on nearly all of the divisions. As we have chatted about previously, Horse of the Year, Sprint and 3-year-old Filly are all highly debatable, and will likely be very close. Other than those three, there are a few others that were difficult decisions. I'll list them below and look forward to your thoughts on each one.

Older Turf Male

This one was especially difficult, as to me, there was no real standout. Horses that I seriously considered were Conduit, Kip Deville, Einstein and Grand Couturier.

Conduit will get a lot of votes based on his sensational Breeders' Cup win, especially in light of runner-up Eagle Mountain's win in Hong Kong last weekend. But I have a difficulty voting for a horse that made just one start in the U.S. It's just a rule I have. The BC and his two group stakes wins in England probably makes him the favorite, but he didn't get my vote. I also don't think Kip Deville did enough. Had he put forth a good showing in Hong Kong maybe I would have changed my mind.

It came down to Einstein and Grand Couturier. On turf, Einstein was 3-2-0 from six starts, with his wins coming in an optional claimer, the grade I Gulfstream Turf and grade I Turf Classic at Churchill. He had a terrific season and his win on the dirt in the Clark added to his versatility. My only knock against Einstein is that he didn't win on turf the second half of the season.

Grand Couturier was 2-0-1 from five starts, his wins coming in the grade I Sword Dancer at Saratoga and grade I Turf Classic Invitational at Belmont. The latter was one of the best performances we have seen all season - scoring by a ridiculous 10 lengths. I'm still undecided about this one.

Older Turf Female

Another difficult choice. My finalists were Folk Opera, Goldikova, Mauralakana and Forever Together. Folk Opera spent most of her time in England, where she won a couple minor stakes and a group II. Then she came to North America and took the grade I E.P. Taylor. It was a solid year, but not enough for me.

Obviously, Goldikova's BC Mile win over the boys was spectacular; maybe the best performance of the whole weekend. She also won a pair of group I races and a group III in France. On paper and on the track, she is probably the most talented among these. But again, she had one race in the U.S. It's an American-based award and therefore, I couldn't vote for her. You have to take a stand somewhere.

Mauralakana was probably my favorite female turfer all year. She showed a ton of heart in her four straight wins, the last one coming in the grade I Beverly D. I really enjoyed watching her run, as she tried every time out. I wanted to vote for her, but I just felt as though Forever Together did a little more. Trained by Jonathan Sheppard, Forever Together won four times on grass, three of them coming in grade I events. For me, her BC Filly & Mare turf win locked up the award.

Jockey

On paper, Garrett Gomez would seem to have the upper hand here. Go-Go is first in earnings with more than $22 million and has a big lead in graded stakes victories.

But when deciding on this award, I think you have to dig a little deeper than rankings. You have to consider everything and watch a lot of racing to see who really gets the most out of every mount. To me, that is Rafael Bejarano.

Bejarano is not only second in earnings and has more grade I wins (9) than anyone, but he was absolutely dominating in California. He is on his way to a California sweep, where he will become only the third rider to win all five meet titles in the state - all of this coming in his first full year in California. You rarely get a bad ride out of Bejarano either. He seems to always get the nod in photos too, which is the sign of a great rider.