Breeders Cup Chat : Curlin

Top 10 Performances of 2008

jshandler — Fri, 12 Dec 2008 16:56:00 GMT

Although the Eclipse Awards are six weeks away and the best horses in each division will be decided then, I thought it would be a fun to do some voting of our own.

Since I still haven't decided on some of the divisions and I don't expect you guys/gals to do all that research, we'll keep this simple. This is a vote for the Top 10 Performances of 2008. It can be for any division, in any single race.

Obviously, there are many to choose from, that's what makes this so tough and fun. After reading mine, I'd love to see what everyone agrees and disagrees with. Feel free to post your own Top 10.

10. Commentator, Whitney Handicap - This was the highlight of the remarkable gelding's fabulous year. He not only won the event for the second straight year by nearly five lengths, but posted a 120 Beyer, which was by far the highest number of any dirt horse going more than a mile this season. Of course, he also recorded the best Beyer at less than a mile in 2008 as well. Not a bad year for a 7-year-old.

9. Benny The Bull, Dubai Golden Shaheen - All four of Benny's wins came in spectacular, come-from-behind fashion, so it was tough to choose between them. I nearly picked the True North Handicap at Belmont because it looked like he had no chance to win in deep stretch but somehow got up with a devastating late charge. However, you can't overlook his performance in Dubai, which was against better. It was breathtaking.

8. Proud Spell, Kentucky Oaks - The Larry Jones trainee not only beat a solid field of 3-year-old fillies, she destroyed them. The five-length victory gives her the edge over Music Note for divisional championship honors.

7. Red Giant, Clement Hirsch Turf Championship - Not only did the 4-year-old colt show grit in edging Out of Control by a head, but he set a new North American 1 1/4-mile turf record in 1:57.16, breaking a mark that had stood since 1977. That's impressive. Out of Control's effort should not be overlooked either.

6. Curlin, Dubai World Cup - His 7 3/4-length romp wasn't against the best of fields, but it was still a tremendous effort. It also solidified him as one of the best horses since the turn of the century.

5. Goldikova, Breeders' Cup Mile - The French invader knocked off a talented group of boys, including last year's winner Kip Deville, in spectacular fashion. Her turn of foot in the final sixteenth was eye-popping, and a highlight of the weekend.

4. Midnight Lute, Breeders' Cup Sprint - Speaking of BC highlights, the 5-year-old Real Quiet horse may have provided the weekend's best performance with his amazing 1 3/4-length score, in which he set the BC record of 1:07.77 for six furlongs. It was his second straight BC Sprint win and amazingly, came in only his second start of the year.

3. Stardom Bound, Oak Leaf - Her BC Juvenile Fillies win was great too, but the Oak Leaf was even more dazzling. The Tapit filly rallied from the clouds to mow down rivals in the stretch in a scintillating 3 1/2-length score, doing it in a time of 1:42.44.

2. Zenyatta, Apple Blossom Handicap - It's difficult to choose her best performance of the year since she went undefeated. Obviously, her Ladies Classic triumph was special and locked up divisional honors. But the Apple Blossom was scary good. The 4 1/2-length victory was against a very good group, including champion Ginger Punch, and it proved she was just as good on dirt as synthetics, if not better.

1. Big Brown, Kentucky Derby - Many of us have gone on record as saying Big Brown was not our favorite horse, but you cannot discount what he did in the Derby. It was one of the best performances since Secretariat, considering he did it from the 20-post and in only his fourth career start, and it was so dominating. It may be a long time before we see a 3-year-old do that again under those circumstances.

Some of the great performances I reluctantly left out of my Top 10 were Old Fashioned in the Remsen, Pyro in the Risen Star, Big Brown in the Florida Derby and Preakness, Da' Tara in the Belmont, Raven's Pass in the BC Classic and Eight Belles in the Derby.

Let the debating begin!!

Curlin Retirement Leaves a Huge Void For 2009

jshandler — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 22:06:00 GMT

The announcement earlier this week that Curlin would not race in 2009 was not a surprise, but the reality of it made me come to one disappointing realization:

Other than Zenyatta, there really aren't many top-tier older horses I am looking forward to watching next year.

With Big Brown and Curlin now out of the mix, we now have the two most popular, and arguably, the two best North American-based dirt horses retired. And that's just the beginning of it.

Some of the notable older horses who have either already been retired or will likely be retired after 2008 are Student Council, Ginger Punch, Hystericalady, Benny the Bull, Midnight Lute, Red Rocks, Evening Attire, Zanjero, Perfect Drift, Lava Man, Red Giant, Tough Tiz's Sis, Zaftig, Alwajeeha, Sealy Hill, Lewis Michael, Dreaming of Anna, Mauralakana, Heatseeker, as well as European stars Zarkava, Raven's Pass and Henrythenavigator. There is also probably a decent chance that Commentator and/or Kip Deville will be gone after their final races this year.

Kind of depressing, isn't it?

At least we have the top 3-year-olds to look forward to. Well, some of them anyway. That's because two of the top Kentucky Derby hopefuls, Vineyard Haven and Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Midshipman will winter in Dubai for Sheikh Mohammed, as well as BC Juvenile Turf winner Donativum likely going to England for Princess Haya.

Again, thank our lucky stars for Zenyatta.

Before I paint too bleak of a picture, there are still some exciting horses that should return in 2009, most of them females - Ventura, Cocoa Beach, Music Note, Proud Spell, Forever Together and Indian Blessing (Baffert's long range goal for her is the Dubai World Cup Sprint) to name a few. And, of course, there is Stardom Bound, who should only get better as a 3-year-old.

As far as the males, 3-year-olds like Colonel John, Mambo in Seattle and Denis of Cork should improve, and sprinter Fatal Bullet looks like he'll be a force. Perhaps the one older horse I am looking forward to seeing more than any other is BC Dirt Mile winner Albertus Maximus, who is set up for a big 5-year-old campaign.

l should also point out that this year is not unlike any other. The reality of horse racing today is that this is time of year when horses retire. It's the nature of the sport and we have to accept it. It's time for the new stars to make their mark.

However, it doesn't take away from the fact that the departure of Curlin, Big Brown and many of our other favorites leaves a huge void for 2009.

Q&A With Zenyatta Trainer John Shirreffs

jshandler — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 21:16:00 GMT

Now that the dust has settled on Zenyatta's marvelous Breeders' Cup win, I thought it would be a good time to catch up with her trainer, John Shirreffs, who is one of the nicer guys in racing. Admittedly, my motives were a bit self-serving, as I wanted to inquire about two of the hot-button topics surrounding Zenyatta: Her future and of course, the Horse of the Year debate.

If nothing else, at least we found out there is reason to hope Zenyatta will race as a 5-year-old.

JShan: It's been a little more than week since Zenyatta won the Ladies Classic, which also gave you your first Breeders' Cup victory. Has it all sunk in yet?

JShirr: It's been such a thrilling season with her and there was so much riding on the Breeders' Cup, not only for me but all the connections. There was an Eclipse Award hanging in the balance and just so much at stake on one race. When she finally won it was just one of those magical moments I will never forget. It was really such a thrill. You only have so many opportunities with horses like this. She has done so much for all of us.

JShan: Like you said, the Eclipse Award was hanging in the balance. Now that you locked up at least one of them, how does that feel?

JShirr: It's going to be so much fun getting that award. To be able to see her name on the Distaff Eclipse Award is going to be such a tremendous honor. It's going to be something I'll always treasure.

JShan: The debate has already begun as far as Horse of the Year honors. It seems it may come down to a two-horse race between Zenyatta and Curlin. Make your case for Zenyatta.

JShirr: Well, I think when you look at the quality of fillies she ran against and beat, she has to be considered. She had to step up every race, and she did. Running against who she did, she had to improve on a monthly basis to keep winning, and she did.

JShan: What do you say to people who think a filly should have to beat the boys to earn Horse of the Year?

JShirr: It's already been proven that you don't have to; look at Azeri. (Zenyatta) went undefeated against a very tough group of fillies this year and had to overcome a lot of adversity. Now, of course, she didn't have run against any Wanderin Boy's...

JShan: Also playing devil's advocate, what about the people who say she only raced outside of California once?

JShirr: The race she won at Oaklawn was a stellar field. I think every horse that came out of that race either won or placed in a stakes. Also, she shouldn't be penalized for racing in California. Remember, she was racing on surfaces she didn't even really like. She preferred dirt. But the Breeders' Cup was in California this year, so there was no reason to ship her anywhere else.

I think it's great to have a Horse of the Year debate. However it comes out, I'll be OK. We're going to be thrilled just getting the Distaff award.

JShan: The other thing people want to know is what the future holds for Zenyatta. Has anything been decided yet?

JShirr: We're going to take our time and do a lot of diagnostic work on her, head-to-toe. We'll give her a little break and then map out a plan.

JShand: Is there any chance she races again this year?

JShirr: No chance.

JShan: Even though you and the Mosses have not made a decision on her future yet, I get the feeling from the things I've been reading and hearing there is a better than 50-50 chance she will race as a 5-year-old?

JShirr: If we're leaning one way, I'd say it's towards running her. We'll announce that a little later.

JShan: Nobody could have predicted how great Zenyatta has been, but looking back to the beginning, how early did you know she had the potential to be something special?

JShirr: Very early on. When she was being broken in Ocala there were a lot of 2-year-olds there. They always told us she was the best one at the place.

JShan: And yet she only fetched $60,000 as a yearling?

JShirr: It was just perfect timing. Balance (her multiple graded stakes winning half-sister) hadn't appeared yet and there were no grade I winners. And it was Street Cry's first yearlings. We were very fortunate.

JShan: What was the biggest challenge in training Zenyatta?

JShirr: When you have a horse as talented as she is, it's just making sure we didn't make any mistakes. We didn't want to get in her way. We wanted to do what was best for her and take care of her the best way we knew how. Everything has been so magical.

Clark Would Be Perfect Way For Curlin to Go Out

jshandler — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 17:00:00 GMT

Now that the Breeders' Cup is in our rearview mirror and it feels as though racing comes to a screeching halt for the rest of season, there is one topic that seems to be on everyone's mind: Horse of the Year.

Curlin vs. Zenyatta. Who will it be?

It's been less than a week since the Breeders' Cup ended and I've already been asked the same question countless times: Who are you going to vote for? Although my standard response has been, "I'm not sure yet," if I'm honest with myself I will admit that I'm leaning towards Zenyatta.

I'm not one of those traditionalists who feels a filly needs to beat the colts to earn Horse of the Year honors. I think what Zenyatta has done is enough to merit strong consideration for the award. Her undefeated season and scintillating Ladies Classic victory over a quality field makes her worthy of the honors.

I will not go into detailed reasons why either Curlin or Zenyatta deserve the award; my colleague Steve Haskin already did a very good job of summing that up. A strong case can be made for either; they were both sensational in 2008. I do respectfully disagree with Steve on the fact that Big Brown deserves to be in the mix. I thought his second half campaign was a bit of a joke, between bypassing Saratoga and having a glorified allowance race written for him. But I digress...

The one thing I will say for sure is this: Right now, I am leaning towards Zenyatta, but I can still be swayed. How? If Curlin runs in the Nov. 26 Clark Handicap and beats Commentator. In my mind, that would push Curlin over the top.

Don't get me wrong. I can see why Jess Jackson would not want to run Curlin in the Clark and I would not penalize him if he chose not to. It's already been a long campaign for him and I have no idea how Curlin came out of the Breeders' Cup. It could very well be that he needs more rest. Jackson did the commendable thing by bringing Curlin to California and he deserves a lot of credit already.

All that being admitted, if Curlin won the Clark it would be the perfect exclamation point. As great as he has been these last two years, I would have to think the Classic loss leaves a bit of a sour taste in Jackson's mouth. If that was indeed his final race, it can't be the way he wants his career to end. A victory in the Clark, on his home track, would be such a fitting way to go out. And to beat a quality horse like Commentator, who has run the highest speed numbers of any horse all year, would quiet anyone who said Curlin hasn't beaten much this year.

It's probably a longshot at this point, but a victory in the Clark would be enough to sway this voter.

Breeders' Cup Thoughts - One Day After

jshandler — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 13:26:00 GMT

What a great weekend of racing. We saw several outstanding performances, including three on Ladies Day Friday and many more on what will be now known as "European Saturday." Less than 24 hours after a very successful Breeders' Cup 25, here are a few thoughts and a breakdown of some of the standout races:

First of all, hopefully we haven't seen the last of Curlin, but if we did it was a disappointing way to go out. Most of the 50,000 at Santa Anita were pulling for the superstar to defend his Classic title. It wasn't meant to be. As I wrote on Friday, he had too much going against him - the lack of significant early speed and more than anything, he was just slowing down after a long campaign. Whether Curlin fans want to admit it or not, he hasn't looked all that sharp in his last two starts and after finally facing some elite competition, it caught up with him Saturday.

There should no excuses about the Pro-Ride, surface, which played fair all weekend. Curlin got beat fair and square by a couple very good Europeans. Give Raven's Pass all the credit. He is peaking at the right time while still going through a long season against the best in Europe. It was his first time on the surface as well.

By the way, I don't like kicking people when they are down, but did I tell you about Casino Drive or what? He just wasn't ready for that class. I still can't believe how low his odds were.

To reiterate about the Pro-Ride, I am one of those who was very impressed with the surface. After talking with trainers and horsemen all week, most had good things to say about it. There seemed to be no biases and most horses got over it very well. For all the complaining about having a Breeders' Cup on a synthetic surface, I think it turned out to be a success. It also played very fair from a handicapping standpoint. And most importantly, there were no breakdowns.

I thought Ladies Day Friday worked very well too. It gave horses like Ventura, Stardom Bound and Zenyatta a showcase and they shined. I know some people still don't like the idea of having the fillies and mares run on a different day, but after Friday I would say the majority of the people I talked to thought it was a success. I would still go back to ‘Distaff' instead of ‘Ladies Classic', but I give the Breeders' Cup credit for trying to be creative.

Here are thoughts on some of the races:

Filly and Mare Sprint - The first of three spectacular performances on Friday. Ventura capped a terrific 4-year-old campaign, where she won three stakes and earned more than $1.2 million for Juddmonte. Nothing less than an outstanding performance would have beaten Indian Blessing, who also ran a winning race. They are two special fillies and hopefully we wil see them next year.

Juvenile Fillies - In the week leading up to the race many people at Santa Anita thought Stardom Bound was vulnerable because of her running style. I was not one of them. What I saw in the Debutante and Oak Leaf told me that this is one freaky filly. She confirmed it in the BC with another breathtaking win. Seeing Stardom Bound make that move around the turn was one of the highlights of the weekend. I cannot wait to see where she lands as a 3-year-old and what she will accomplish. She will be one of the major stories of 2009.

Ladies Classic - What can you say about Zenyatta that hasn't already been said? She is truly spectacular. Her seemingly effort Ladies Classic win capped an exciting Friday and kept her undefeated in nine starts. We can only hope she runs next year, and who knows, maybe a year from now she will try to the boys in the Classic.

Also, there is plenty of time for this, but Horse of the Year is now going to be very interesting between Zenyatta and Curlin. Both are certainly deserving and my early guess is Curlin has the edge. But Zenyatta is going to garner a lot of votes. Let the debating begin!!

Turf Sprint - Great race, great finish. I wasn't one of those who had $75 winner Desert Code, but it would have been nice to have the biggest score of the weekend. Anyone have it? Just goes to show that toteboards can light up when you have ridiculous early fractions.

Dirt Mile - I wound up playing Albertus Maximus after A) seeing his nice odds compared to Well Armed and B) watching how good he looked in the paddock. I am usually not one of those with an astute eye for picking out horses who look good before the race, but when I saw Albertus Maximus 10 minutes before post I ran to the window. This is one of the most physically impressive colts I have seen in a long time and he proved it on the track. Great job by cutting-edge trainer Vladimir Cerin, who turned this horse around after taking over for Gary Mandella. One of his secrets? Using a hyperbaric chamber to help him recover faster. Very cool. I am looking forward to seeing Albertus Maximus race as a 5-year-old. He has a lot of upside. I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the 2009 Classic.

Mile - Wow. Goldikova's turn of foot in the final sixteenth was breathtaking. It was definitely a weekend highlight. Kip Deville ran a winning type race, but was no match for this freaky 3-year-old filly. Not sure what the future holds for either, but it certainly was a memorable race.

Sprint - The most disappointing race of the week for me. I touted Fabulous Strike, but he just didn't fire. Not sure what happened to him, but even at his best he probably wouldn't have beaten Midnight Lute or Fatal Bullet, who ran a huge race. What a job Bob Baffert has done with Midnight Lute, who in the early part of the season didn't even look like he would make it back to the track. Winning two consecutive BC Sprint's is a tremendous accomplishment. Hats off.

Saturday Picks, Part 2

jshandler — Sat, 25 Oct 2008 14:59:00 GMT

Juvenile Turf

Take your pick. Morning-line favorite Bittel Road and second choice Coronet of a Baron have a slight edge on paper, but this is a wide-open contest. Bittel Road, trained by Todd Pletcher, is undefeated in three starts but his speed figures are nothing staggering compared to these. He'll hope for a hot pace to close from. Coronet of a Baron missed by a nose to Midshipman at Del Mar and now tries turf for the first time.

Others to consider are European invaders Donativium and Westaphalia, Canadian shippers Grand Adventure and Skipadate, and longshot Vaquero.

The Pick: Demand value in this race because on paper there isn't much separating the major contenders. One value horse I like is Skipadate, who is 6-1 ML but might be even higher by post time. The Skip Away colt is two heads away from being undefeated and unlike many of his rivals here, all three of his efforts have been at a mile or over and on turf. He has made two big moves on the turn and his 94 Beyer is as high as anyone in here, including Grand Adventure, the colt that beat him by a head in the Summer Stakes. I've always been a fan of trainer Mark Casse, who should have this horse ready for a big effort. Skipadate on top and in exactas with Westaphalia and Donativium.

Sprint

There are some races where you tread lightly and others where you attack. This is an attack for me. Why? I love a horse here - Fabulous Strike. Part of the reason is that I have followed him his whole career and know his situation. He's a gelding that has been consistent for three seasons, but has battled illness and injury. In talking with Todd Beattie earlier this week, he confirmed that this is the first time in more than a year that Fabulous Strike has been 100% healthy. And when healthy, he is as good a sprinter as there is in the country. His Vosburgh last out was tremendous considering he ran a :44 1/5 half while being pressed by two rivals. He then gave way to Black Seventeen in deep stretch, but showed enough grit to fight back on the rail before falling a head short. When I saw how good he looked in his stall this week and Beattie confirmed he has taken to the Pro-Ride, I was all in.

The Pick: There are others to be respected here, the Sprint is always one of the deepest BC fields. Street Boss, First Defence and In Summation are all capable contenders. But Fabulous Strike is my best bet of the entire weekend and will be my largest win bet. He will be wheeled in an exacta with the rest of the field. I'll be thrilled with 5-1.

Turf

Soldier of Fortune garners the most respect based on his solid campaign, which included a group I win and last out a terrific effort in the Arc when he was beaten only 2 1/2 lengths by Zarkava. Last year's Irish Derby winner has won three times at this distance, has world-class connections and has the tracking style to win this. I also give Eagle Mountain a nice chance, although he makes only his second start this season.

Of the American-based contenders, Grand Couturier certainly enters in great form. His win in the Turf Classic where he broke the North American 1 1/8 record and earned a 112 Beyer makes him a legitimate contender. He should put on a much better showing than in last year's Turf.

The Pick: Earlier this week I gave a slight edge to Grand Couturier, but Soldier of Fortune and Eagle Mountain are just a little classier. I will be putting my win money on Soldier of Fortune, who has been a consistent money earner against the world's best turfers over the last two years. Grand Couturier will be in all exotics.

Classic

First off, Curlin has looked great this week and is getting over the track just fine. He has been flawless this season and is absolutely the best horse on paper. If he wins, nobody should be surprised. That's what champions do.

But...there are reasons why I will not bet Curlin. A) He will be 8-5 or worse in a deep and solid field B) There is really going to be no significant pace in here which is something Curlin needs with his running style C) Despite garnering high speed figures in his last two, he was not overly-impressive visually and had trouble putting away less than stellar fields. D) Curlin really hasn't beaten all that much this season.

Who can beat Curlin? In my opinion, all 11 in this field are capable - even Smooth Air, who will be the longest shot on the board. It looks like he could inherit the lead by default and might even be in front at the quarter-pole. Go Between, who is 3-3-0 from six synthetic starts, is also scary. Colonel John seems to be peaking now and Eoin Harty has been quietly confident all week that the Travers winner is sitting on a big one. For all of Bobby Frankel's bellyaching about the Pro-Ride, Champs Elysees is also an intriguing horse. He showed he could get over the synthetics well when taking third in the Santa Anita Handicap in March and is usually near the money in grade I company.

All you Casino Drive fans (and there are a lot of you), there is no doubt he looks terrific and has taken to the track. But if he beats this field in his fourth career start, I will tip my hat and say I was dead wrong. He will not be in any of my wagers.

The Pick: I've had a feeling all week that this was going to be a European Breeders' Cup. I think they will win at least three or four races this weekend, and the Classic will be one of them. I've taken the hardest look at Raven's Pass and Duke of Marmalade. Both are having terrific campaigns against the world's best and are remarkably consistent. Raven's Pass enters off two big wins and seems to be in better form right now than Henrythenavigator, who has been his rival all year. The main reason I decided against him is because he will be trying 1 1/4 for the first time. My pick is Duke of Marmalade. All The Duke has done is win five of six this season - all in group I company - with two of the coming at 10 furlongs. Although seventh in the 1 1/2 Arc, he was right there after 10 furlongs and still finished less than four lengths back of the winner. He has great connections, has looked good all week, seems to be taking to the track and has accomplished more than any horse this season other than Curlin. And, he will be a nice price. I'll take my chances with Duke of Marmalade in a win bet and play him in exactas with Curlin, Raven's Pass and Go Between.

Let's see who everyone else likes. No matter who it is, have fun and best of luck to everyone. Enjoy Breeders' Cup 25!!

Getting a Handle on the Pro-Ride

jshandler — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 19:39:00 GMT

Pro-Ride, Pro-Ride and more Pro-Ride. Considering it was installed only about two months ago and this will be the first Breeders' Cup held on a synthetic surface, it is all anyone here at Santa Anita is talking about.

How will some of the traditional dirt horses handle the Pro-Ride? Will it even the playing field for the Euros, especially in the Classic? How is the new surface playing at the current Oak Tree meet? These are all questions people are asking. Some of them won't be answered until later this week, but with five only days until the Breeders' Cup, I decided we could all use a refresher course on Pro-Ride. The logical person to talk to was Ian Pearse - the man who invented the surface and is responsible for reconstituting Santa Anita's previous Cushion Track surface into the one we see today.

Upon arriving at Santa Anita for the first time Monday morning, my initial reaction of the Pro-Ride is that it looks a lot different than the Polytrack I'm used to seeing at Keeneland. It is much more brown than most synthetics and looks like a more traditional dirt track. But that was only an impression from a physical standpoint. I asked Pearse, who is Australian and first developed Pro-Ride 20 years ago for his dressage arena, to explain some of the specifics about the surface that will dominate discussion all week.

JS: People's reaction about Pro-Ride during the current Oak Tree meet has been positive for the most part. What have you been hearing?

IP: It's been very positive. The main thing they are saying is that track's resiliency has been very surprising. They are blown away by how much spring it gives. Also, in racing to date, there doesn't seem to be much bias. Horses are winning on the lead, from behind and on the rail. It's proven to be unbiased so far.

JS: One of the complaints we hard in the first few days of racing is that riders say the track gets very hot. Have you heard this from many people?

IP: Initially yes. In the early part of the meet we had weather in the high 90s and people we saying it was a bit warm. As the temperature on the track got around 105, we watered it and (the temperature) significantly dropped. People said it was much better.

Now, the weather is in the mid-80s and low 90s and no one is talking about it anymore. It was really that first week. But we'll continue to monitor it through the week and take the ground temperature.

(As a side note to this, this morning I asked trainer Eoin Harty about the heat on the track and he confirmed it wasn't an issue anymore "It is totally being overblown. We haven't had any issues with it. People need something to talk about." Of course, at the bottom of this blog you will see that Steve Asmussen has a different opinion.)

JS: I think people tend to lump all synthetic surfaces together. Can you tell us what the main difference between Pro-Ride and the others synthetic tracks are?

IP: Well, the main difference is that our material is made from Polymetric binders, as opposed to wax. Wax, when heated, it softens. The Polymetric does not soften and therefore it is a more stable, long-term surface. We don't have to use a watering program that others use. We only use water to lower temperature when needed.

What also makes it better, in my opinion, is it has a two-phase cushion. The significance of this is the track is just as resilient on the last day of the meet as it is on the first. We don't have to do maintenance. It's better technology; more advanced. It is second-generation material.

JS: Still, there are many traditionalists that say we shouldn't have racing on synthetic surfaces. How do you respond to that?

IP: Well, the motivation for racing on synthetic surfaces is different everywhere. In Australia, there is a water shortage problem and that is why the racing industry pushed for it. Over here, the motivation was animal welfare. The lower cost of ongoing maintenance is also a factor. But as far as racing on dirt or synthetics, everyone has their preferences.

Curlin and Asmussen

After Curlin worked in :51 1/5 this morning, trainer Steve Asmussen held court for the media. I didn't get to see the Curlin breeze, but I was standing next to him as he hotwalked afterwards. As always, he looks like a physical specimen and seems very happy. As far as Curlin's liking fotr the Pro-Ride, Asmussen was pretty vague. Here is what he had to say when I asked him about his overall impressions of the surface.

"We're just trying to gather information at this point. I think at this stage, when you're talking about three-quarters speed, and gallops and breezes, the data is everything you will see in the race.

What about the heat?

"I think it's obvious that in the afternoons it does generate a great deal of heat. We've breezed him in the afternoon trying to simulate that and see if it would adversely affect him. Of course, he's not on it the amount of time he will be for the race - post parade, built-up and all that time. So it does allow for heat to be that much more of a factor. But with that being said, we're not sure of what the temperature will be that day."

**After the post position draws on Tuesday I will have my first analysis and picks of the Friday races. Look for that in the evening.

Division Rankings With Two Weeks and Counting

jshandler — Sun, 12 Oct 2008 17:23:00 GMT

With less than two weeks to go until the World Championships, now is a good time to look at some of the top contenders in each division. Obviously, there will be plenty of surprises when the pre-entries come out Thursday, so this is just a rough draft, if you will.

Right now, the biggest question marks are which Europeans will come over, and what races will they enter. Because of the synthetic surface, some which may have pointed to the Mile or Turf in years past may try the Classic. We’ll have to wait and see.

Be sure to check in all next week when I’ll analyze each division in-depth and later in the week, give out selections.

Friday, Oct. 24 races

Filly and Mare Sprint: Shaping up to be a deep and talented group.

1. Indian Blessing – Champion gets slight edge based on class edge, but she is by no means a shoe in. Is there any possibility she tries the boys?

2. Indyanne – TCA was very impressive considering splits she ran and what she had left in final sixteenth.

3. Intangaroo – Won three G1’s this year and nobody seems to know.

Watch out for: Lady Sprinter – A perfect 8-for-8 on dirt in Argentina; Will make U.S. debut in BC.

Juvenile Filly Turf: Doesn’t look all that intriguing now that European star Rainbow View is being pointed towards the Juvenile Fillies. We’ll see how it shakes out.

1. Maram – Miss Grillo winner looks as good as any right now.

2. C Karma – Never been off the board in five starts. Natalma winner makes first start outside of Woodbine.

3. Freedom Rings – Runner-up in a pair of stakes events.

Juvenile Fillies: Addition of European star would add a lot of intrigue.

1. Stardom Bound – Debutante and Oak Leaf wins were awesome.

1A. Rainbow View – Perfect 4-for-4 in England. If she runs, it could turn into a great stretch duel.

3. Sky Diva – Looks like the best on East Coast.

Watch out for Be Smart: Smarty Jones filly was second to Dream Empress in Alcibiades but has a lot of talent.

Filly and Mare Turf: No overwhelming favorite at this point. Betting should be wide-open.

1. Mauralakana – Beaten last out but tough to argue with the year she’s had. Tries every time.

2. Wait a While – Form as a good as anyone right now.

3. Black Mamba – New Zealand-bred has never been off the board.

Watch out for: Ventura – Has kind of fallen off the radar since Woodbine Mile. I wouldn’t forget about her.

Ladies Classic: Might be the most anticipated race all weekend, even without Proud Spell. Should be special.

1. Zenyatta – Still perfect and gets the stay home. Could be Horse of the Year if everything falls right.

2. Music Note – Will have to beat older horses, but she has talent to do it.

3. Hystericalady – Was soundly beaten by Zenyata and synthetic is not her best surface, but I still like her here.

3A. Ginger Punch – Still the champ.

Watch out for: Carriage Trail – Stakes record in Spinster while drifting badly. Is she set up to bounce? Time will tell.

Saturday, Oct. 25 races

Marathon: A shame Evening Attire was retired. He would have added a lot to this event. With only a few preps for this division, we know little at this point. My guess is we’ll see a few Europeans enter, which should spice things up.

1. Delightful Kiss – I guess you have to give him the early edge based on Fall Championship and All American Stakes, both on artificial surfaces.

2. Big Booster – One of two probables for Mike Mitchell. Has won two in a row and is plenty fresh.

3. Dominican – Darrin Miller has not yet committed to sending last year’s Blue Grass winner.

Watch out for: Frost Giant – IEAH is now saying Suburban winner might be entered. One European name to keep in mind is Sixtees Icon.

Turf Sprint: Really won’t know too much until Thursday.

1. Mr. Nightlinger – One thing we do know is he’ll be the favorite. Enters on five-race win streak.

2. True to Tradition – Nearctic and Turf Monster winner in good form for Scott Lake.

3. Diabolical – Last year’s Vanderbilt winner ran a good one two weeks ago at Ascot.

Watch Out for: Salute the Count – Won at Saratoga last month and 8-year-old Dutrow trainee is always in the mix.

Dirt Mile: Looks like California horses have the edge here.

1. Well Armed – Seems that Eoin Harty is leaning towards Mile instead of Classic. Will be tough if that is the case.

2. Surf Cat – The old man always gives his best. Cutback could be to his liking.

3. Tale of Ekati – Ran a career-best 104 Beyer in Jerome. Could be the best spot for the 3-year-old.

Watch out for: Albertus Maximus – Improving colt set one-mile Del Mar track record this year.

Mile: Looks like some of the top Europeans are leaning towards the Classic. We’ll have to wait and see.

1. Kip Deville – Willing to excuse his Woodbine Mile. Last year’s winner has to get benefit of the doubt.

2. Goldikova – According to DRF, talented filly will try Mile instead of Filly and Mare Turf. She’s won consecutive group I mile events in France.

3. Thorn Song – Probably won’t have it as easy as he did at Keeneland.

Watch out for: Spirit One – If speedy Arlington Million winner enters, could ruin things for Thorn Song.

Juvenile: You have to assume that Vineyard Haven is not going. With Charitable Man out and Run Away and Hide a likely defection, things seem wide-open.

1. Square Eddie – Impressive Futurity winner on top right now by default.

2. Munnings – Second in Champagne, but likely to improve.

3. Street Hero – Norfolk winner never off the board in five starts.

Watch Out for: Midshipman – Second in Norfolk. Can’t discount a Baffert 2-year-old. Also, Pioneerof the Nile, who will likely move off the turf, could be an upset possibility for Bill Mott if he draws in.

Juvenile Turf: Another one where we won’t know too much until entry time.

1. Grand Adventure – I was impressed with gutsy Summer victory.

2. Bittel Road – Undefeated and looking good for Pletcher.

3. Jukebox Jury – Irish colt rallied from last in Royal Lodge.

Watch out for: Skipadate – Tough luck so far, but he has talent. Also, Duke of Homberg, a winner in France, could improve off fourth-place Pilgrim, which was his U.S. debut.

Sprint: Injuries to Benny the Bull, Abraaj and Bustin Stones have opened the division up.

1. Fabulous Strike – Is fast as lighting and has a ton of heart. Will he like the Pro-Ride?

2. Street Boss – Likely favorite has been tremendous this year.

3. Cost of Freedom – Ancient Title winner has won three straight.

Watch out for: Midnight Lute – Baffert says last year’s Sprint winner is ready to roll.

Turf: As always, Europeans will play a big part here although we still don’t know who is coming, let alone who will opt for the Mile. In the U.S., there isn’t a lot separating top few.

1. Grand Couturier – Couldn’t be coming into the race any better.

2. Red Rocks – The 2006 winner will come in with 3 ½ months rest.

3. Red Giant – Set North American turf record for 10 furlongs in Clement Hirsch. Can’t disregard.

Watch out for: All of the Europeans. Henrythenavigator and Raven’s Pass seem to be pointing towards Classic, but there is still Soldier of Fortune and Eagle Mountain. Also, I haven’t heard about Archipenko yet. Duke of Marmalade is definitely coming, but will it be for the Classic or Turf?

Classic: Full picture won’t be complete until we know for sure about Curlin, and which Europeans will enter.

1. Curlin – Will have another work on Pro-Ride Monday. You would think connections should be able to tell us by then.

2. Big Brown – Continues to work on grass. Looking forward to seeing him at Santa Anita.

3. Go Between – Might be the best of the West.

Watch out for: Colonel John, Casino Drive, Student Council and at the risk of being repetitive, any European.

Curlin vs. Big Brown - Let the Countdown Begin

jshandler — Sun, 28 Sep 2008 19:33:00 GMT

Well, race fans...it looks like we're going to get our wish. After all the talking, hoping, and back-and-forth between Jess Jackson and Mike Iavarone, the showdown of the year is now very likely. Curlin vs. Big Brown. For all the marbles.

After Curlin's record-breaking victory in the Jockey Club Gold Cup Jess Jackson confirmed that Curlin would be shipping to California on Monday to prepare for his Breeders' Cup Classic defense - Pro-Ride and all. Give Jackson credit for changing his mind. Even though he is not excited about the artificial surface, he knows the best horse in the world belongs at the Breeders' Cup and it will be great for the sport. He also knew he had to be there to have any chance at Horse of the Year honors. Kudos Jess.

As we touched on before, this could wind up being the deepest Classic in history. In addition to Curlin and Big Brown, the probables are littered with superstars - Commentator, Well Armed, Go Between, Casino Drive, Duke of Marmalade, Henrythenavigator, New Approach, Pyro, Student Council and a few more. If even 75% of these horses go to post it will be one of the most anticipated races in recent memory. And a great thing for the industry.

There is plenty of time to analyze the Classic, but before we do that let's take a look back at a super weekend of racing. I came away very impressed with a number of horses. All those who continue to complain about the Pro-Ride, stop your negativety. This is going to a great Breeders' Cup.

First of all, Curlin's Gold Cup win was solid. He didn't have a perfect trip but still found enough to run down Wanderin Boy in the stretch - bad conditions and all. I thought Wanderin Boy would run a big race and he did. Curlin was just too much. And on to California he goes.

Goodwood - Well Armed showed me a lot. He held off three very good horses in the stretch and defeated a talented field. Give Aaron Gryder credit for a perfect stalking trip. That was probably the difference for Well Armed. Because of his closing kick and preference for the artificial surfaces he will have to be respected in the Classic.

Lady's Secret - What can you say about Zenyata other than she is spectactular? She only beat three but it was the way she did it. She went wide on the turn and went by like Hystericalady like she was standing still. In case you haven't noticed, Hystericalady is a pretty good mare. Nobody is supposed to go by her like that. I know her connections have said she will go to the Distaff, but wouldn't it be exciting if she ran against the boys in the Classic? That would make an already great race the most anticipated showdown in...well, maybe ever.

Flower Bowl - Speaking of defeating good females, how about Dynaforce repelling Mauralakana? She finally put it all together. It looked like Mauralakana was going to go right by Dyanforce around the turn but she was turned back emphatically. Dynaforce might be getting good at the right time. She will be a definite factor in the Filly & Mare Turf.

Vosburgh - Take nothing away from Black Seventeen. He ran a great race and surprised many. But I came away very impressed with Fabulous Strike in a losing effort. He ran a :21.75 quarter and :44.31 half in the slop while being pressed the whole way by J Be K and First Defence. Then he still has enough to fight Black Seventeen tooth and nail in the final furlong. It was a gritty effort. Despite all his physical problems and lack of seasoning over the past year, if he gets into the BC Sprint Fabulous Strike will be a huge factor.

Oak Leaf - This was perhaps the most impressive performance of the day. If you haven't watched the replay of what Stardom Bound did, do yourself a favor and take a look. She breaks slowly, is next to last in a full field of 12 after a half-mile and comes about 10-wide into the lane. That explosion she showed in the stretch is very rare, especially from a 2-year-old filly. She is special and will be the probable favorite in the BC Juvenile Fillies. Mike Smith called her his "baby Zenyata." Watch out.

Turf Classic - Grand Couturier took advantage of very slow splits, but still had to come wide into the stretch. When he did, it was a thing of beauty. He showed a powerful turn of foot to lock up his second consecutive grade I win. He proved he can win away from Saratoga. He is for real.

Clement Hirsch - No way I could leave off a horse that set a new world record, and that's exactly what Red Giant did. His time of 1:57.16 broke a record that had stood for more than 17 years. Talk about impressive. Out of Control wasn't half bad in second either. The BC Turf should be one heck of a race too.

I'd like to hear who you thought was impressive on Saturday.

Picks For a Great Weekend of Racing

jshandler — Fri, 26 Sep 2008 17:16:00 GMT

Does racing get any better than this weekend? Seven grade I's from Santa Anita. Five from Belmont. Eighteen graded stakes around the country. Eleven Breeders' Cup Challenge races in two different countries (would have been 13 if the Pilgrim and Miss Grillo weren't moved to next week because of weather). Great stuff.

About the only hiccup in what promises to be an exciting racing weekend is the heavy rains in New York. It's not exactly clear if the turf races will remain on turf, but either way, the complexion of all the races will change. Of course, all eyes will be on the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Curlin's attempt to break Cigar's earnings record.

Let's take a look at some of the big races, starting with the Gold Cup:

As we saw in last year's BC Classic, Curlin doesn't have any problems running in the mud. If he is on the top of his game he should handle this field. But...

His Woodward was far from impressive. Is the long year beginning to take its toll? I'm not sure, but it would still take a lot of guts to bet against Curlin here, so I think the best way to go is to play exotics. Mambo in Seattle proved me wrong in the Travers, but he still didn't make a believer out of me yet, especially at 7-2. If you're going to play Curlin at odds-on, you have to take a stand against Mambo to get a decent price.

I like Wanderin Boy to run a big race here. He is very classy. Over the past two years he has run second to Invasor, Bernardini and Lawyer Ron. And his Woodward wasn't bad at all last out. Two years ago he won by seven in the mud at Belmont. Last year he romped in the mud at Churchill. I'm not sure how much the old man has left, but I'm willing to throw him in all of my exotics, especially at 10-1 or more. I'll also include A.P. Arrow (20-1), for no good reason other than he has shown a liking for an off-track and he is certainly due, and Timber Reserve, who seems to be in his best form of the year.

The pick: $20 exacta box (5) Curlin/(3) Wanderin Boy and $5 exacta box (5) Curlin/(7) A.P. Arrow, (3) Timber Reserve. I'll also play a small across the board bet on (3) Wanderin Boy.

We discuss the race further in this week's edition of That Handicapping Show. Plus, don't miss Cary's Equiform picks. He was 3-for-3 last week and continues to stay red-hot. He gives his picks for the Ancient Title and another race from Santa Anita.

Goodwood

The Pro-Ride at Santa Anita has gotten good reviews so far, but it will get a real test this weekend. You would have to assume that the horses that run well over it will have an advantage Breeders' Cup weekend. In the meantime, it makes handicapping that much harder in the short term. Nobody, even the trainers, have any idea how their horses will handle the new surface.

Tiago won last year's Goodwood by a nose, but has been very average since then. I'm going to pass. Spirit One makes his first start off turf and should be near the lead, along with Well Armed and possibly Zappa. The early pace might set up well for Surf Cat, who has a first and third at this distance and despite finishing sixth in the Pacific Classic, didn't give a poor showing. Or it might be a prefect set-up for Mast Track, who has run three straight Beyers over 100 and turned in a great work over the surface on Sunday. The outside post concerns me though.

Also working well over the surface is Albertus Maximus, who is my longshot play here. He is a 4-year-old who seems to be on the rise, he gets Garrett Gomez and turned in a career best speed figure last out when winning the Windy Sands. Vladimir Cerin recently took over the training of the son of Albert the Great, who might be ready to take it to the next level.

The Pick: This is a super, but tough betting race. I can see any of seven or eight horses finding the winner's circle here. In the end, I settled on Surf Cat (6-1), who I'm hoping has one more big run in him. I'm hoping he'll get a nice stalking trip under David Flores and he'll show that finishing kick that he did April. His work on Wednesday indicates he likes the track. I'm going to key him in an exacta box with Albertus Maximus (8-1) and Well Armed, who has done nothing wrong this year - $10 exacta box 4/6,7.

In the Yellow Ribbon I like (2) Vacare, who is very classy, and in the Oak Leaf I think (10) Black Magic Mama will improve in her second start. I'll box her with Will O Way. In the Vosburgh, which is not a "Win and You're In," but still a great race, I'll go with Fabulous Strike. Todd Beattie says he is back to 100% and ready to roll.

Let me know who you like. Good luck this weekend!!

All of a Sudden, BC Classic Full of Intrigue

jshandler — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 20:32:00 GMT

Wasn't it just a few weeks ago that we were all complaining about the Breeders' Cup Classic lacking intrigue?

Now, if everything falls into place, this might be one of the most highly-anticipated Classics of all-time.

Of course, a lot has to be decided between now and Oct. 25, most importantly, whether or not reigning Horse of the Year Curlin will go to California. But after Jess Jackson's recent comments, it now seems there is a 50-50 chance that Curlin will head to Santa Anita to race on Pro-Ride.

The Classic looks like it will get another boost with Commentator, who will run in the Massachusetts Handicap this weekend and then point towards the big race. That was confirmed by his owner, Tracy Farmer, at a national media teleconference Sept. 16. Previously, it was unclear which race Commentator would shoot for.

"He's never run on synthetics, but he trained on it at Keeneland and absolutely loved it," Farmer said. "I'd say if we go - if I can get our trainer there - it would be in the Classic. There is a question about Santa Anita and its new track, but all the stuff I've heard so far has been positive. We'd love to run against Big Brown and Curlin if he is in the shape he was in the Whitney. He's got the fastest Beyer under a mile and over a mile."

Farmer's comment about "if I can get our trainer there" was in reference to Nick Zito, who is not a big proponent of synthetics. But when asked who would make the final decision on whether to send Commentator to the Breeders' Cup, Farmer said, "I would say the owner of the horse makes that decision."

Assuming Commentator runs well at the MassCap and comes out of it fine, the Classic field could potentially have three huge names - Big Brown, Curlin and Commentator. And that's just the beginning.

Also decent possibilities for the $5 million event are Travers winner Colonel John, Pacific Classic winner Go Between, San Diego and San Antonio Handicap winner Well Armed, Japanese ace Casino Drive, European turf stars Henrythenavigator and Duke of Marmalade, Travers runner-up Mambo in Seattle, the always game Student Council, battled-tested Tiago, talented 3-year-old Pyro, and don't forget about the possibility of undefeated filly Zenyatta. Also on Sept. 17, Larry Jones said Philip Iselin winner Honest Man might be pointed towards the Classic.

Now, if that doesn't get your juices flowing, you're not a racing fan!

There are still many questions to be answered in the next five weeks, but at least now the Classic seems to be back on everyone's radar.

You see, I told you all this complaining about the synthetic surface would play itself out. Just sit back, relax and enjoy...

No More Challenges Jess, Just Show Up

jshandler — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 17:28:00 GMT

Okay, after the peculiar back-and-forth repartee between Jess Jackson and Mike Iavarone that was carried out by the media on Wednesday, I am officially annoyed with the Big Brown vs. Curlin situation.

And after all the bickering that has taken place, it finally appears that the two most popular horses in America will never meet.

It is a very sad situation for one simple reason: In the end, not only does the industry lose, but so do the fans. Had the two camps come to terms and had it been marketed correctly, this is a match-up that would have done wonders for a sport that could certainly use a boost in popularity. It could have been huge.

Here is my official take on the situation:

Jess Jackson should stop issuing challenges and meet Big Brown in The Breeders' Cup Classic.

As many of you know I have been critical of Big Brown's connections in the past, but in this case I cannot fault them. The Woodward and the Jockey Club Gold Cup, while certainly both races that seem attractive on paper, would not be the right fit for Big Brown.

The Haskell took a lot out of Big Brown, which both Rick Dutrow and Iavarone have already admitted, and they feel coming back in four weeks for the Woodward would be too soon. Remember, he went through a grueling Triple Crown stretch and he has chronically bad feet. They know their horse better than we do. We have to give them the benefit of the doubt on that one.

The Gold Cup would give him eight weeks of rest, but it would also be less than a month until the Classic, which doesn't make sense either. Ideally, they want more time than that. Again, you can't fault them.

I am not sure what spot they will pick for Big Brown. It is likely to be much softer than either of the aforementioned races and on the surface it will seem like they are ducking Curlin. But if Iavarone wants a turf prep for his horse, that is his right. Admittedly, it does make more sense to run on turf as a prep for a synthetic race, as opposed to dirt. Remember, the goal all along has been the Classic. They have been upfront about that from Day 1.

Bottom line: Horse of the Year championships in this day and age are decided in the Breeders' Cup Classic. Having the race on a synthetic surface is not ideal for everyone, especially since Santa Anita's will be brand new, but it is what it is. It would be the first race on the surface for both horses, so neither would have an advantage. Synthetics are here to stay and Jackson needs to realize this and embrace it.

Somehow, the word "synthetic" has become a four-letter word to many. I realize it makes handicapping more challenging and last year's slow-playing Del Mar surface turned off some. Constantly hearing the gripes of some of the top trainers who don't care for it hasn't helped either. But the reason it was created in the first place is because it is safer for horses, and early research has shown that it does reduce catastrophic injuries. I'm tired of all the complaining about synthetics. Deal with it. It's not going away.

Curlin won last year's Classic in the muddy soup at Monmouth. I'd like to ask Jackson if he thinks that surface was any safer for his horse than Santa Anita's Pro-Ride will be. The George Washington tragedy was a pretty good indication that it wasn't.

The reality is, they are spending millions to redo Santa Anita's ailing surface and will have plenty of time to test the track at the beginning of the meet. Does anyone really believe they would risk having racing's biggest day on a track that is not safe for horses? Not a chance.

If Jackson plans it right, Curlin will have plenty of time to train over the new surface. All the horses will, including Henrythenavigator, who some label as the world's best horse and is being pointed towards the Classic. Aidan O'Brien, the world's best trainer, doesn't seem bothered by the surface.

I don't criticize Jackson for trying to put the Curlin-Big Brown match-up together in New York. I genuinely believe he would like to be able to share it with the fans. He seems like a good sportsman, has the best interest of the industry at heart and is in touch with what people want. On the flip side, he needs to realize that the Breeders' Cup is the international showcase. It is racing's biggest stage and has been for a quarter of a century. It is the most logical place for the two stars to meet.

The surface will be safe. Get over your aversion to synthetics and show up in California. Everyone wants to see it.

Division Leaders

jshandler — Tue, 12 Aug 2008 21:26:00 GMT

We're now a little more than five weeks into the Breeders' Cup season and the divisions are beginning to take shape. The continuing story thus far is how the male division seemingly gets more ordinary every day while the female division continues to get more exciting. Unless this Big Brown-Curlin thing actually happens, there is no doubt the Ladies Classic will be much more interesting come late October. I forget, what day is the Ladies Classic being run? Never mind.

Anyway, with about two more months of Breeders' Challenge events left to go, I thought it would be a good idea to take a look at a few of the divisions. Let's do our best to rank the top 3 American-based horses in each one. Here goes:

Classic

1. Curlin - You still have to give him the edge even though we have no idea if Jess Jackson will send him to Santa Anita.

2. Big Brown - Looking forward to seeing the spot they pick for him. Something tells me it will be the Pennsylvania Derby.

3. Commentator - He ran the year's top Beyer (119) so you have to respect him. Looks like he'll go to the Mass Cap next month and point towards the Classic. But can he get 1 1/4 miles?

Don't forget about: Henrythenavigator - He's won four consecutive group I races and some say he is the best horse in the world. Aidan O'Brian says he will point towards this race, which should spice things up.

Ladies Classic

1. Ginger Punch - She's the champ. Until someone proves otherwise, I'm ranking her above Zenyatta.

2 . Zenyatta - Undefeated and getting better. Has a huge advantage because of the synthetics.

3. Music Note - Looking forward to this weekend's Alabama. She might be the best of them all.

Don't forget about: Hystericalady. She lost by a nose in the '07 Distaff and is even better this year.

Tough for me to leave out Proud Spell and Little Belle, but what can you do?

Turf

1. Red Rocks - Won the best U.S. turf race this year.

2. Gio Ponti - Hasn't faced grade I company yet, but a star in the making.

3. Einstein - Had a poor start in the Million, but the loss was more than just that.

Don't forget about: Any European. The Americans will have their hands full against all of them. All three that took money in Arlington Million might be back for BC.

Filly & Mare Turf

1. Mauralakana - Gotta love her. She just knows how to get it done.

2. Forever Together - Diana was no fluke.

3. Black Mamba - Not BC nominated, but owners will probably fork over the cash.

Don't forget about: J'ray: She narrowly lost to Mauralakana twice.

Sprint

1. Benny the Bull: All he does is win. The way he powers down the stretch is breathtaking.

2. J Be K - Has never lost at less than a mile.

3. Street Boss - That's five in a row for the synthetic specialist.

Don't forget about: Kodiak Kowboy: Highly-touted as a 2-year-old, he might be coming into his own.

Mile

1. Kip Deville: Pure miler is lightly-raced this year, but will be primed and ready for Santa Anita.

2. Daytona -Tired in American Handicap. A mile might be his best distance.

3. Monzante - Just beginning to hit his best stride.

Don't forget about: Red Giant: Very impressive off a 10-month layoff. Not sure what his best distance is, but Pletcher will figure it out.

More division rankings to come later...

Curlin vs. Big Brown in BC Turf May Be the Only Way They Meet

jshandler — Wed, 06 Aug 2008 01:01:00 GMT

Curlin vs. Big Brown: Every racing fan in the nation wants to see it. It's a match-up that would be great for the sport and would give the industry a huge shot in the arm.

The only problem is, with every passing day the chances of it happening seem to grow slimmer.

From where I sit, the only realistic way it happens is Oct. 25 in the Breeders' Cup Turf. That's right, the Turf, not the Classic.

Based on the comments of Jess Jackson and Mike Iavarone over the past two days, here's what we know:

Curlin will go in the Woodward on Aug. 30. Most of us are in agreement that this is a logical place for Big Brown to meet Curlin, as it gives him four weeks rest and it's at Saratoga, the best meet in the world. The only problem is, Iavarone said he is looking for a turf race for Big Brown, some time in mid-September. I have yet to hear his reasoning for this, but can only assume it is to prep him for a run on the synthetic at Santa Anita and possibly to ease his troubled feet.

If Big Brown goes in a turf race in mid-September that takes out the possibility of the two meeting in Curlin's next tilt, which based on Jackson's comments today, could be the Jockey Club Gold Cup on Sept. 27. He also gave a few other possibilities, including the Sept. 20 Mass Cap, but either way, he won't be meeting Big Brown in September. The timing just isn't right.

If you heard Jackson speak today, which I did, you will know that the possibility of him running Curlin on the synthetic Pro-Ride at Santa Anita is very slim. Here is a little bit of what he said:

"I'd like to go (to the Classic). I'm a native Californian. But it's on an untested surface. It causes great concern. Why run a horse like Curlin that is on a surface that's undefined? We've won the Classic - been there, done that. (If we did go), I would love to have a prep race on the exact surface, but it doesn't appear we will be able to. We would probably only be able to exercise on it a few times."

He is scared to death to race Curlin on that surface. He made that very clear in his lengthy media conference. Could he have a change of heart? Sure, anything is possible. But don't count on it.

Where does all this leave us? The only logical place is the Breeders Cup Turf. For it to happen, Big Brown will need to win his mid-September race and look good doing it. That would give Iavarone all the confidence he needs to stick Big Brown in the BC Turf, for what would be his final race. It would also be more acceptable to Jackson, who was clear today when he said Curlin could very easily go back to racing on turf, despite his losing effort in the Man o' War.

It would also be very attractive to both because of the historical ramifications. Can you imagine if the Derby and Preakness winner won his his final career race in the BC Turf and beat the reigning Horse of the Year doing it?Or, if the 2007 BC Classic winner ended his career by winning the 2008 BC Turf, defeating the probable 3-year-old champion doing it? Both would be unprecidented and amazing accomplishments.

Other than Iavarone having a change of heart and deciding to run Big Brown in the Woodward, I can see no other way that these two meet. And if that is the case, I think I speak for all of us when I say, what a shame that would be.