Breeders Cup Chat : Fabulous Strike

Jockey Club Gold Cup Weekend Analysis

jshandler — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 16:13:00 GMT

Over the next two weekends, 41 graded stakes will be run. Many of them will have Breeders' Cup implications. All of them present us with an opportunity to make money. Let's get to work.

On Saturday, Belmont takes center stage with five grade I's on Jockey Club Gold Cup day. Let's take a brief look at each of them and try to put together a winning late Pick 4.

(Current weather forecast in New York for Saturday is scattered thunderstorms and 60% chance of rain).

Race 6-Beldame

This is probably the least interesting of the Belmont stakes since it drew only four betting interests and Music Note is 2-5 on the morning line. Anyone going to try to beat her? I'm not. Although I won't bet the race, I will watch it with great interest since I really believe Music Note could be the horse to beat in the Ladies Classic.

Race 7-Vosburgh (start of late Pick 4)

Only a five-horse field but still a challenging race to handicap. Fabulous Strike is obviously the one to beat since he continues to be in terrific form, comes in fresh, and is a head away from winning this race two years in a row. But he is far from a lock in here.

Go Go Shoot draws the rail and will have first jump on the field. He nearly had enough in the Vanderbilt but couldn't hold on. He won't have the luxury of an eight-pound weight break this time however, and that could be a factor. He has never carried 124 pounds. And he gets Maragh for the first time.

If anyone takes down Fab Strike I think it will be Munnings. He cuts back to six furlongs for the first time since breaking his maiden and should be able to take advantage of a hot pace with a late bid. He loves this track and has been facing the best 3-year-olds all season long. He could be tough.

Race 8-Flower Bowl

Tough call here and it's the place where I go deepest in my Pick 4. Strong cases can be made for favorites Carribean Sunset, Dynaforce, and Pure Clan. It may be Pure Clan's turn to run a big one. She didn't have the best of trips when beaten 1 1/2 lengths by Dynaforce in the Beverly D and goes back to a distance she enjoys. If the ground comes up soft it could be to her benefit, as she ran a big one over the yielding turf in last year's Garden City. I give her the slight edge.

I also wouldn't discount Criticism at a price. She'll be near the lead on a course she runs well on and at a distance that suits her. She comes in fresher than many of these.

Euro invader Moneycantbymelove is also a factor if the ground is soft. She ran a big one at Goodwood last out against two very good fillies.

Race 9-Turf Classic

I don't see Gio Ponti getting beat, soft ground or not. Yes, he has to go a distance he's never been tested at before, but he had plenty left in his last two so it shouldn't be a problem. It's also not the toughest of fields. Telling probably won't run back to his last, Presious Passion is likely to scratch because of the weather, and Grand Couturier was beaten soundly by Gio Ponti earlier this summer. If anyone pulls the upset it may be Musketier, who could be alone on the lead if Presious Passion scratches. Still, this looks like a single to me. Gio Ponti and Musketier in an exacta box.

Race 10-Jockey Club Gold Cup

Seems like many think Summer Bird is just too good right now and he will lock up the 3YO championship with another big effort. Not so fast.

If the track is wet Summer Bird certainly will have an advantage, but he isn't the only one who likes an off going. Macho Again is 2-for-2 on a wet track and Dry Martini also doesn't seem to mind it. There is no doubt that Macho Again is in the best form of his career and if he runs back to his Woodward form he should win. Ten furlongs is probably not his ideal distance however, so he may be up against it.

Dry Martini is very tempting. He really likes Belmont and if you are willing to throw out his Whitney he could be a play at a nice price. He's worked sharply since that last race and has a win at the distance. Barclay Tagg sounds confident.

Quality Road is the wild card. He certainly should be better prepared for this one and the third start off a layoff is a nice angle. I have a feeling he will run big.

I think Summer Bird gets beat.

$1 Pick 4 ticket: (3) Munnings, (5) Fabulous Strike/ (1) Caribbean Sunset and Beauty O' Gwaun, (3) Pure Clan, (4) Dynaforce, (5) Criticism, (7) Moneycantbymelove/ (1) Gio Ponti/ (2) Macho Again, (6) Dry Martini, (7) Quality Road.

It's a $30 ticket.

Good luck to all this weekend. What's your late Pick 4? Any other races you like from around the country?

Arlington Million, Whitney Weekend Analysis

jshandler — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 05:21:00 GMT

As a fan of racing and wagering, Arlington Million day is always one of my favorite events of the year--solid, deep fields, top horses from all over Europe, and some of the best turf racing offered in this country. The Million is perhaps my favorite turf race of the season, other than the Breeders' Cup races.

There are also many other big races from around the nation this weekend as well, including the Whitney, Test and Vanderbilt from Saratoga, and the Bing Crosby and Clement Hirsch from Del Mar, the latter featuring the undefeated Zenyatta. Let touch on a few of these and we can talk more in depth about all of them on Friday's live blog, which begins at noon.

Arlington Million

This year the American's seem to have an edge, especially with the presence of Gio Ponti, Einstein and Presious Passion, who have a total of six grade I wins between them this season alone. It's hard to dismiss Gio Ponti since he fires almost every time and has won two of three starts at this distance. He also has run well on both firm and soft turf, even though the weather is supposed to be fine for Saturday. Christophe Clement has won nearly every big turf race this country has to offer, including the last two editions of the Beverly D., but has never won a Million. This would seem to be his best shot.

Einstein will certainly be tough too and Presious Passion is dangerous on the front end if Recapturetheglory doesn't go with him. Just as Well deserves consideration too after coming off a win on the course in the Arlington Classic. Jonathan Sheppard owns and trains the son of A.P. Indy, which is never a bad thing. He will be a big price. As for the Euros, I like Cima de Triomphe the best of the three. He's a horse who either wins or doesn't fire. The Italian Derby winner won a group II two starts back in England and ran fourth to Sea the Stars in the Coral-Eclipse last out. He has been settling in nicely at Arlington for more than week.

The Pick: It's hard to separate many of these, so I'll just give out an exacta box: Gio Ponti, Just as Well and Cima de Triomphe. I'll leave out Einstein at my own risk.

Whitney

Commentator goes for his third Whitney win and has been working lights out coming into the race. Had it not been for the entry of Tizway, it would be very hard to pick against the 8-year-old star. But the speedy Tizway won't let him alone on the lead and could challenge him enough to set up one of the horses stalking the pace. A couple good candidates are Smooth Air and and Asiatic Boy.

Smooth Air has been very consistent this season, finishing first or second in all four starts. He makes his second start for new trainer Chad Brown and should get a nice, ground-saving trip from post 1, and have first run at Commentator in the stretch. He'll be a nice price. Asiatic Boy makes his third start for Kiaran McLaughlin in the U.S. and seems to be right on the edge of winning a big one over ere. He could have very easily won the Stephen Foster. The cut back in distance from the Suburban could help. Dry Martini also seems to be in his best form in quite a while and should be considered.

The Pick: I'll take a stab with Smooth Air to win and box him in an exacta with Commentator and Asiatic Boy.

Clement Hirsch

Zenyatta tries to stay undefeated in a race she won the year before. It's always difficult to pick against her and the race isn't a great one from a betting perspective, but I'll try to make a case for Life is Sweet, her stablemate and the probable second choice.

Life is Sweet was second by less than two lengths to Zenyatta in the Milady in May, then came back to run a solid third against males in the Gold Cup. She will make her first start at Del Mar, but has been training lights over the surface, as evidenced by her huge work on Aug. 2. A cutback to 1 1/16 miles may be to her advantage and if she likes the surface, she could get the jump on Zenyatta.

The Pick: What the heck, I'll take a stab with a small win bet on Life is Sweet and also box her in a trifecta with Zenyatta and Dawn After Dawn, who had the lead at the top of the stretch in the 1 1/8-mile Vanity before finishing third.

Other quick picks for the weekend: Take the Points in the Secretariat, Black Mamba in the Beverly D., and Fabulous Strike in the Vanderbilt.

Good luck to all. Who do you like?

Poll - Who Will Win the BC Classic?

jshandler — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 17:56:00 GMT

Welcome to Breeders' Cup Chat and the second half of the Thoroughbred racing season. The Breeders' Cup Challenge "Win and You're In" races are well underway and Del Mar and Saratoga are right around the corner. Because of the various divisions and these premier racing meets, in many ways I look forward to the Breeders' Cup more than the Triple Crown.

Though there have many unfortunate injuries that have taken several of our stars away from us in the first half of the season, the 2009 Breeders' Cup promises to be an exciting one. All of the divisions are beginning to take shape thanks to 62 "Win and You're In" races from around the world.

During the next several months we will take an in-depth look at many of the divisions. Just off the top of my head, the Turf with Gio Ponti and Presious Passion, and the Sprint, which could include Fabulous Strike, Benny the Bull, Zenzational and Munnings, have the potential to be very exciting. And European stars such as Goldikova and Sea the Stars will surely thicken the plot at Santa Anita.

As for the Classic, the absence of the nation's best 3-year-old, Rachel Alexandra, will be a downer, but from the looks of things at this moment there are more than a dozen horses with a legitimate shot winning, including undefeated mare Zenyatta, sensational older male Einstein, 3-year-old stars Mine That Bird and Summer Bird, and aforementioned European superstar Sea the Stars.

Since we are still almost four months away and anything can happen, the Classic field is still largely unsettled. But all things remaining equal, I am curious who the consensus pick would be if we had to make a selection today. It's a tough call since we don't know which Europeans will be here and whether horses like Quality Road will round back into form. But it's still fun too where everyones mind is right now.

If I had to pick, right now I would go with Einstein. He fires every time and is already proven over the course. If he stays healthy, he will be tough. I'm interested in seeing who everyone else likes.

In the meantime, if there are any topics you would like to see discussed or any trainers you would like to see interviewed over the next four months please let me know. I'm looking forward to lively discussion and interesting comments from you all.

Who do you think will win the 2009 Breeders' Cup Classic?(survey software)

Saturday Picks, Part 2

jshandler — Sat, 25 Oct 2008 14:59:00 GMT

Juvenile Turf

Take your pick. Morning-line favorite Bittel Road and second choice Coronet of a Baron have a slight edge on paper, but this is a wide-open contest. Bittel Road, trained by Todd Pletcher, is undefeated in three starts but his speed figures are nothing staggering compared to these. He'll hope for a hot pace to close from. Coronet of a Baron missed by a nose to Midshipman at Del Mar and now tries turf for the first time.

Others to consider are European invaders Donativium and Westaphalia, Canadian shippers Grand Adventure and Skipadate, and longshot Vaquero.

The Pick: Demand value in this race because on paper there isn't much separating the major contenders. One value horse I like is Skipadate, who is 6-1 ML but might be even higher by post time. The Skip Away colt is two heads away from being undefeated and unlike many of his rivals here, all three of his efforts have been at a mile or over and on turf. He has made two big moves on the turn and his 94 Beyer is as high as anyone in here, including Grand Adventure, the colt that beat him by a head in the Summer Stakes. I've always been a fan of trainer Mark Casse, who should have this horse ready for a big effort. Skipadate on top and in exactas with Westaphalia and Donativium.

Sprint

There are some races where you tread lightly and others where you attack. This is an attack for me. Why? I love a horse here - Fabulous Strike. Part of the reason is that I have followed him his whole career and know his situation. He's a gelding that has been consistent for three seasons, but has battled illness and injury. In talking with Todd Beattie earlier this week, he confirmed that this is the first time in more than a year that Fabulous Strike has been 100% healthy. And when healthy, he is as good a sprinter as there is in the country. His Vosburgh last out was tremendous considering he ran a :44 1/5 half while being pressed by two rivals. He then gave way to Black Seventeen in deep stretch, but showed enough grit to fight back on the rail before falling a head short. When I saw how good he looked in his stall this week and Beattie confirmed he has taken to the Pro-Ride, I was all in.

The Pick: There are others to be respected here, the Sprint is always one of the deepest BC fields. Street Boss, First Defence and In Summation are all capable contenders. But Fabulous Strike is my best bet of the entire weekend and will be my largest win bet. He will be wheeled in an exacta with the rest of the field. I'll be thrilled with 5-1.

Turf

Soldier of Fortune garners the most respect based on his solid campaign, which included a group I win and last out a terrific effort in the Arc when he was beaten only 2 1/2 lengths by Zarkava. Last year's Irish Derby winner has won three times at this distance, has world-class connections and has the tracking style to win this. I also give Eagle Mountain a nice chance, although he makes only his second start this season.

Of the American-based contenders, Grand Couturier certainly enters in great form. His win in the Turf Classic where he broke the North American 1 1/8 record and earned a 112 Beyer makes him a legitimate contender. He should put on a much better showing than in last year's Turf.

The Pick: Earlier this week I gave a slight edge to Grand Couturier, but Soldier of Fortune and Eagle Mountain are just a little classier. I will be putting my win money on Soldier of Fortune, who has been a consistent money earner against the world's best turfers over the last two years. Grand Couturier will be in all exotics.

Classic

First off, Curlin has looked great this week and is getting over the track just fine. He has been flawless this season and is absolutely the best horse on paper. If he wins, nobody should be surprised. That's what champions do.

But...there are reasons why I will not bet Curlin. A) He will be 8-5 or worse in a deep and solid field B) There is really going to be no significant pace in here which is something Curlin needs with his running style C) Despite garnering high speed figures in his last two, he was not overly-impressive visually and had trouble putting away less than stellar fields. D) Curlin really hasn't beaten all that much this season.

Who can beat Curlin? In my opinion, all 11 in this field are capable - even Smooth Air, who will be the longest shot on the board. It looks like he could inherit the lead by default and might even be in front at the quarter-pole. Go Between, who is 3-3-0 from six synthetic starts, is also scary. Colonel John seems to be peaking now and Eoin Harty has been quietly confident all week that the Travers winner is sitting on a big one. For all of Bobby Frankel's bellyaching about the Pro-Ride, Champs Elysees is also an intriguing horse. He showed he could get over the synthetics well when taking third in the Santa Anita Handicap in March and is usually near the money in grade I company.

All you Casino Drive fans (and there are a lot of you), there is no doubt he looks terrific and has taken to the track. But if he beats this field in his fourth career start, I will tip my hat and say I was dead wrong. He will not be in any of my wagers.

The Pick: I've had a feeling all week that this was going to be a European Breeders' Cup. I think they will win at least three or four races this weekend, and the Classic will be one of them. I've taken the hardest look at Raven's Pass and Duke of Marmalade. Both are having terrific campaigns against the world's best and are remarkably consistent. Raven's Pass enters off two big wins and seems to be in better form right now than Henrythenavigator, who has been his rival all year. The main reason I decided against him is because he will be trying 1 1/4 for the first time. My pick is Duke of Marmalade. All The Duke has done is win five of six this season - all in group I company - with two of the coming at 10 furlongs. Although seventh in the 1 1/2 Arc, he was right there after 10 furlongs and still finished less than four lengths back of the winner. He has great connections, has looked good all week, seems to be taking to the track and has accomplished more than any horse this season other than Curlin. And, he will be a nice price. I'll take my chances with Duke of Marmalade in a win bet and play him in exactas with Curlin, Raven's Pass and Go Between.

Let's see who everyone else likes. No matter who it is, have fun and best of luck to everyone. Enjoy Breeders' Cup 25!!

Curlin vs. Big Brown - Let the Countdown Begin

jshandler — Sun, 28 Sep 2008 19:33:00 GMT

Well, race fans...it looks like we're going to get our wish. After all the talking, hoping, and back-and-forth between Jess Jackson and Mike Iavarone, the showdown of the year is now very likely. Curlin vs. Big Brown. For all the marbles.

After Curlin's record-breaking victory in the Jockey Club Gold Cup Jess Jackson confirmed that Curlin would be shipping to California on Monday to prepare for his Breeders' Cup Classic defense - Pro-Ride and all. Give Jackson credit for changing his mind. Even though he is not excited about the artificial surface, he knows the best horse in the world belongs at the Breeders' Cup and it will be great for the sport. He also knew he had to be there to have any chance at Horse of the Year honors. Kudos Jess.

As we touched on before, this could wind up being the deepest Classic in history. In addition to Curlin and Big Brown, the probables are littered with superstars - Commentator, Well Armed, Go Between, Casino Drive, Duke of Marmalade, Henrythenavigator, New Approach, Pyro, Student Council and a few more. If even 75% of these horses go to post it will be one of the most anticipated races in recent memory. And a great thing for the industry.

There is plenty of time to analyze the Classic, but before we do that let's take a look back at a super weekend of racing. I came away very impressed with a number of horses. All those who continue to complain about the Pro-Ride, stop your negativety. This is going to a great Breeders' Cup.

First of all, Curlin's Gold Cup win was solid. He didn't have a perfect trip but still found enough to run down Wanderin Boy in the stretch - bad conditions and all. I thought Wanderin Boy would run a big race and he did. Curlin was just too much. And on to California he goes.

Goodwood - Well Armed showed me a lot. He held off three very good horses in the stretch and defeated a talented field. Give Aaron Gryder credit for a perfect stalking trip. That was probably the difference for Well Armed. Because of his closing kick and preference for the artificial surfaces he will have to be respected in the Classic.

Lady's Secret - What can you say about Zenyata other than she is spectactular? She only beat three but it was the way she did it. She went wide on the turn and went by like Hystericalady like she was standing still. In case you haven't noticed, Hystericalady is a pretty good mare. Nobody is supposed to go by her like that. I know her connections have said she will go to the Distaff, but wouldn't it be exciting if she ran against the boys in the Classic? That would make an already great race the most anticipated showdown in...well, maybe ever.

Flower Bowl - Speaking of defeating good females, how about Dynaforce repelling Mauralakana? She finally put it all together. It looked like Mauralakana was going to go right by Dyanforce around the turn but she was turned back emphatically. Dynaforce might be getting good at the right time. She will be a definite factor in the Filly & Mare Turf.

Vosburgh - Take nothing away from Black Seventeen. He ran a great race and surprised many. But I came away very impressed with Fabulous Strike in a losing effort. He ran a :21.75 quarter and :44.31 half in the slop while being pressed the whole way by J Be K and First Defence. Then he still has enough to fight Black Seventeen tooth and nail in the final furlong. It was a gritty effort. Despite all his physical problems and lack of seasoning over the past year, if he gets into the BC Sprint Fabulous Strike will be a huge factor.

Oak Leaf - This was perhaps the most impressive performance of the day. If you haven't watched the replay of what Stardom Bound did, do yourself a favor and take a look. She breaks slowly, is next to last in a full field of 12 after a half-mile and comes about 10-wide into the lane. That explosion she showed in the stretch is very rare, especially from a 2-year-old filly. She is special and will be the probable favorite in the BC Juvenile Fillies. Mike Smith called her his "baby Zenyata." Watch out.

Turf Classic - Grand Couturier took advantage of very slow splits, but still had to come wide into the stretch. When he did, it was a thing of beauty. He showed a powerful turn of foot to lock up his second consecutive grade I win. He proved he can win away from Saratoga. He is for real.

Clement Hirsch - No way I could leave off a horse that set a new world record, and that's exactly what Red Giant did. His time of 1:57.16 broke a record that had stood for more than 17 years. Talk about impressive. Out of Control wasn't half bad in second either. The BC Turf should be one heck of a race too.

I'd like to hear who you thought was impressive on Saturday.

Sprint Division Becomes Wide-Open

jshandler — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 18:01:00 GMT

With so many divisions seemingly wide-open for the Breeders' Cup, there was at least one that we thought we had a pretty good grasp on. The Sprint.

Not anymore.

In the last seven days the Sprint went from being a division with two clear-cut favorites, to one with more questions than perhaps any other division.

First, defending champ Midnight Lute's comeback was derailed last weekend at Del Mar, as he finished a disappointing 10^th in the Pat O'Brien Handicap. It left serious questions as to whether he is the same horse who won the 2007 BC Sprint and Eclipse Award, and if he is suited for running well on synthetics. Stay tuned there.

More stunningly, we learned on Wednesday that Benny the Bull has been retired. We were all looking forward to watching him in the Forego and pointing towards the Breeders' Cup, where he was going to attend to some unfinished business. But now the best sprinter in the world, who had won five straight, is no longer in the mix and it has left a gaping hole in the division.

So where does this leave the sprint division? Well, I guess the new favorite becomes Street Boss, who has also won five straight and is a synthetic specialist. His closing style is very much like Benny the Bull's and now the Bruce Headley trainee looks to have the edge on the rest.

Lucky Island also becomes a major contender. The Argentine-bred has won four in a row, including two in graded company and may have more talent than Street Boss. But will he like the surface? Same goes for the undefeated Bustin Stones, who has gone gate-to-wire in all five dirt starts. But he hasn't run since April.

One horse it would be wise not to forget about is Fabulous Strike, who when healthy, might be faster than any of these. I talked to trainer Todd Beattie about the 5-year-old Smart Strike gelding today, and he said all systems are go.

Fabulous Strike, who has won 10 of 15 starts but has raced just once this year, has been scratched from his last two starts, including the Vanderbilt. Beattie said Fabulous Strike had a bad foot bruise that required work and some rest, but he is now on target for the Sept. 27 Vosburgh, a race that he won by nearly six lengths last year. The Breeders' Cup is definitely the goal.

"He's training fantastic," said Beattie, who is based out of Pennsylvania and has Fabulous Strike stabled at Presque Isle Downs. "He's right on schedule for the Vosburgh. We've had some bumps in the road, but the good news is that we'll have a real fresh horse for the Breeders' Cup. I have a lot of confidence in him and now it seems like the division is open to anybody."

One other we must not forget is J Be K. The 3-year-old faltered in the King's Bishop but he is still a force with his electric speed.

It should be an interesting two months.