Breeders Cup Chat : Forever Together

Picks For Friday BC Races

jshandler — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 00:27:00 GMT

Ok fellow handicappers, the time has come for Breeders' Cup selections.

I have received many of your picks for the contest, so I have an idea of what you guys are thinking. I don't like picking winners two days out and I will be handicapping up to the races on Friday, but I do want to get this out there so that we can open up dialogue on each race.

Fire away with any questions/comments you may have and be sure to join in for the live blogs all week. I'll post another blog on Thursday with my Saturday picks. Looking forward to debating with everyone...

Marathon

I'm not crazy about this race, probably because other than a few horses, I haven't seen many of them race, and trying to handicap 1 ¾-mile races are not my specialty.

I've talked to some who say Mastery is the "lock" of the Breeders' Cup. I guess that is based on the St. Leger when he won by three-quarters of a length in September. He really has never run a bad race but has only won three times in eight starts. He's probably the deserving favorite, but if he is anywhere near 9-5 I will likely just play exotics and no win tickets.

I do like Father Time a bit. He had a troubled trip in that St. Leger and should improve off that. This could be a chalky race.

Mastery
Father Time
Man of Iron

Juvenile Fillies Turf

It's hard to look past Lillie Langtry in this race, even with a full field. She has to go an extra furlong for the first time, but has been very consistent in all six starts. She had a nice, easy prep about a month ago and should be sitting on a huge effort.

I do like a couple of price horses here. Smart Seattle (8-1) has looked excellent on the track all week and I think a mile will suit her a little better than 8 ½ furlongs, in which she ran second in her last two. The Jessamine was the perfect prep for this race. She lost to House of Grace by a nose and will be a much better price.

Elusive Galaxy (20-1) ran pretty well in her prep, the Natalma at Woodbine, in her first try in North America and at a mile. She shipped to California last month and has settled in nicely for Ben Cecil. She also gets her second race with Bejarano aboard. A live 20-1 shot with Bejarano? I'll take a stab.

Lillie Langtry
Smart Seattle
Elusive Galaxy

I'll box all three in an exacta

Juvenile Fillies

Tough race. Blind Luck has to be used based on her Oak Leaf. Hollendorfer hasn't had a lot of success at the BC, but he is still one of the best in California and has been for a long time. She is definitely the one to beat.

That being said, I'm going for an upset here. She Be Wild (8-1) has done absolutely nothing wrong in four starts. She dominated at Arlington in three starts and ran big in the Alcibiades at Keeneland for her prep. Wayne Catalano has a good handle on 2-year-old fillies and he has a live one here. Leparoux gets the mount and she should stalk the pace and pounce on the leaders in the stretch.

She Be Wild
Blind Luck
Beautician

F&M Turf

There are many who believe Forever Together has lost a half-step. Not me. What's she done wrong? She was beaten nose in the Canadian and came flying at the end of one-mile First Lady after being 20 lengths out. The 1 ¼-mile distance is ideal for her, as we saw last year. Don't look past her. She's a champion and Sheppard will have her revved up.

I think Magical Fantasy has to be included on the bottom of tickets because of her success out here and Pure Clan is in great form. Rutherienne stretches out to 10 furlongs for the first time but she might enjoy the added distance for a piece.

Forever Together
Pure Clan
Rutherienne/Magical Fantasy

F&M Sprint

I'm a bit surprised at how many people think Ventura is going to get beat. She is a couple noses away from being undefeated in four grade I's this year. Her Woodbine Mile was sick. She won this race by four last year. She's a monster.

I'm not sure why I don't like Informed Decision as much; maybe because she hasn't been out here. She certainly is capable of pulling the minor upset.

I do like Evita Aregentina (20-1) to hit the board. What's she done? Well, she beat boys in the San Vicente over this course in February and became the first 3YO filly in 65 years to beat elders in the A Gleam two back. She is a bit inconsistent, but if she's on and gets a hot pace, watch out.

Ventura
Evita Argentina
Informed Decision

Ladies Classic

It's wide-open without Zenyatta. You can make a good case for any of them in here. Even Lethal Heat, the longest choice on the morning line, is in good form and likes this track. Distance is her issue.

I was sure Music Note was going to win this race a week ago. She has been off the charts good in New York in her last two and is probably the best horse in the race--on dirt. I know she ran a solid third in this race last year and there is no reason to believe she shouldn't run well again, but...

I am leaning toward Proviso (8-1), a 4-year-old filly who impressed me a lot in the Spinster in her first U.S. start. She was much the best despite her disqualification, proving she can handle synthetics. I'm hoping she gets even better. She's has had an aggressive 2009 campaign in Europe this year, including a third to Goldikova in August. She fits well here and will be a big number.

I also can make strong cases for Cocoa Beach and Rainbow View

Proviso
Music Note
Life Is Sweet/Cocoa Beach

Thoughts?

Weekend Analysis: A Grade I Bonanza

jshandler — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 16:23:00 GMT

What a simply spectacular weekend of racing we have ahead of us--Opening weekend of Keeneland, six grade I races from Santa Anita, and a pair of major 2-year-old races at Belmont. Other than Derby and Breeders' Cup week, and opening weekend of Saratoga, there may be no better racing weekend on the calendar. Enjoy.

There are way too many races to analyze in depth so I'll keep it short and look forward to your comments and analysis of all the action.

Keeneland

In the Thoroughbred Club of America it looks like a two-horse race between Informed Decision and Carlsbad. I know a lot of people think Carlsbad will pull the minor upset but I am not one of them. Informed Decision is 3-for-3 at Keeneland and should be able to wear down Carlsbad, who could get pressure up front from Bold Union. Informed Decision for the win.

Forever Together is also unbeaten in two starts at Keeneland and should make it 3-for-3 in the First Lady, no matter how the turf is. She won this race last year and will rebound from her tough defeat last out. Acoma needs another race and Diamondrella has regressed a bit since the beginning of the year. Tizaqueena is the one I'll use in my exotics with Forever Together. She should enjoy the cut back in distance and could carry the lead a long way.

The Breeders' Futurity is a crapshoot. Two-year-old races on synthetics are tough enough to figure out without having 14 horses in the field. In this case, I'll try to beat the favorites--Dixie Band and Backtalk. I like Make Music For Me, who ships in from Cali with two good stakes efforts under his belt, Hockley, runner-up to Dublin two back, and Stately Victor, who comes off a route win on the turf.

The condition of the turf could play a big factor in the Shadwell Turf Mile. Mr. Sidney and Justenuffhumor like it soft, which it very well could be. As good as Justenuffhumor has been lately I think he is best suited for longer. On paper, Court Vision has regressed this season, but he was struggling with a health issue that was corrected with surgery in July. Despite not being at his best all year he has held his own in most of his five grade I races. He's back to 100% for this with an eye towards the Breeders' Cup. Adds blinkers and should be ready to run a big one. Hopefully the ground stays firm.

In Sunday's Spinster, I'll go against Swift Temper, who is unproven over Poly and does not have a work there this week. I'll go with the English shipper, Proviso, making her first start in the U.S. She has run some big races in France, including a group III win last out.

Santa Anita

As we talked about on That Handicapping Show, there are many ways to go in a wide-open Goodwood. I like Parading, who makes his third start in Cali for Shug. He had a wide trip in the Pacific Classic and was still beat less than two lengths. He makes his first start at Santa Anita, but has been working well there. He has a big win over the Poly at Keeneland earlier this year. The cut back should benefit him and he gets Bejarano back. I'm hoping he doesn't get too much action, as I like him to win at a price.

I also like Colonel John, who is 3-for-5 at Santa Anita and makes his third start off a layoff, and Monzante, who ran some big numbers last year and was solid in his first start of the season last month. Tiago will be in all of my trifectas too. Mine That Bird is a throw out for me. He faces older horses for the first time and is in over his head.

Zenyatta will probably make it 13-for-13 in the Lady's Secret. I'll wait to the Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic to beat her.

Belmont

Dublin certainly looks like the real deal and all eyes will be on him in the Champagne. If he gets beat I think it will be by Homeboykris, who Dutrow says is more talented than D' Funnybone. It's a tall task for him in his stakes debut, but talent is talent. I'll box those two in an exacta.

I'm going against Awesome Maria in the Frizette. She has been terrific in her last two but had perfect trips in both. Now she has to deal with two other burners, Nonna Miss, who broke her maiden by 12, and Franny Freud, already a two-time stakes winner. I like Franny Freud, who Paul Pompa bought privately after her stakes debut in Florida. She seems to want more ground and has been working great. I hope she stays at 8-1.

Good luck to everyone this weekend. Who do you like?

Division Rankings With Two Months To Go

jshandler — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 20:02:00 GMT

With less than two months remaining until the World Championships, I thought it would be a good time to briefly go over some of the division leaders. Obviously, there is much to be decided, and like last year, the synthetic cloud hangs over the status of several horses, most notably in the Classic.

Anyway, here is what I came up with for a few divisions. It's a rough list, so Im sure I left some good horses out. (And I'm sure many of you will let me know about it). Feel free to discuss other divisions I didn't get to. Let the debating begin...

Classic

I do not think Sea the Stars, Zenyatta, or Gio Ponti will go in the Classic for one reason or another. There are many others I'm unsure about too, but my top three are probable.

1. Einstein - His solid Pacific Classic effort proved he's back.
2. Rail Trip - Will be tough in his backyard.
3. Mastercraftsman - Might be the Euros top threat.

Under consideration: Macho Again, Quality Road, Bullsbay, and Summer Bird all a notch below right now because of the synthetic question mark. Fame and Glory (Euro), Mine That Bird and Colonel John deserve consideration too.

Ladies Classic

1. Zenyatta: It's hers to lose. Can't see her going against the boys.
2. Music Note: She's back in a big way and we know she likes Santa Anita.
3. Careless Jewel: Alabama was scary good and we know she can run on synthetics.

Under consideration: Life Is Sweet, Icon Project, Seventh Street, Sara Louise, Stardom Bound

Turf

1. Gio Ponti: I think this will be the spot. He'll be a handful.
2. Conduit: Defending champ is back in top form.
3. Midships: It will be interesting to see how he comes back.

Under consideration: Obviously, Sea the Stars if he chooses this spot but I think he'll stay in Europe. Also, Spring House, Presious Passion, and Just as Well. Of course, this list doesn't include other top Euros aiming for the race, but won't know too much until after the Arc.

Filly & Mare Turf

1. Forever Together: Champ is locked and loaded again
2. Magical Fantasy: Three huge efforts in a row. Best of the West.
3. Dar Re Mi: May be best of loaded Euro contingent. Might go to Mile too.

Under consideration: Alnadana (Euro), Dynaforce, Gozzip Girl, Midday (Euro), Flying Cloud (Euro)

Mile

1. Goldikova: Hard to imagine anyone beating the defending champ right now. I wonder if her presence will discourage others from entering?
2. Justenuffhumor: Looks like McLaughlin will shorten up.
3. Battle of Hastings: A nose away from three in a row.

Under consideration: Bribon, Mr. Sidney, De Re Mi

Dirt Mile

1. Big Drama: King's Bishop was a throw out because of the wet track. But will he like Pro-Ride?
2. Informed: Pacific Classic proved he needs shorter.
3. Smooth Air: Whitney was a step back, but he is still formidable.

Under consideration: Charitable Man, Coal Play, Assessment, Mast Track, Bribon

Sprint

Zensational: Looks unbeatable on synthetics
Fabulous Strike: If it was on dirt, he'd be the pick
Kodiak Kowboy: Had a win on Poly as a juvenile

Under consideration: Capt. Candyman Can, Vineyard Haven, Pyro, Munnings, This Ones For Phil

More Close Calls With Eclipse Awards

jshandler — Wed, 17 Dec 2008 19:47:00 GMT

The voting for the 2008 Eclipse Awards began last week and writers have until Jan. 5^th to cast their ballots. The awards will be presented in Miami on Jan. 26^th.

During the past few days I have completed my homework and made up my mind on nearly all of the divisions. As we have chatted about previously, Horse of the Year, Sprint and 3-year-old Filly are all highly debatable, and will likely be very close. Other than those three, there are a few others that were difficult decisions. I'll list them below and look forward to your thoughts on each one.

Older Turf Male

This one was especially difficult, as to me, there was no real standout. Horses that I seriously considered were Conduit, Kip Deville, Einstein and Grand Couturier.

Conduit will get a lot of votes based on his sensational Breeders' Cup win, especially in light of runner-up Eagle Mountain's win in Hong Kong last weekend. But I have a difficulty voting for a horse that made just one start in the U.S. It's just a rule I have. The BC and his two group stakes wins in England probably makes him the favorite, but he didn't get my vote. I also don't think Kip Deville did enough. Had he put forth a good showing in Hong Kong maybe I would have changed my mind.

It came down to Einstein and Grand Couturier. On turf, Einstein was 3-2-0 from six starts, with his wins coming in an optional claimer, the grade I Gulfstream Turf and grade I Turf Classic at Churchill. He had a terrific season and his win on the dirt in the Clark added to his versatility. My only knock against Einstein is that he didn't win on turf the second half of the season.

Grand Couturier was 2-0-1 from five starts, his wins coming in the grade I Sword Dancer at Saratoga and grade I Turf Classic Invitational at Belmont. The latter was one of the best performances we have seen all season - scoring by a ridiculous 10 lengths. I'm still undecided about this one.

Older Turf Female

Another difficult choice. My finalists were Folk Opera, Goldikova, Mauralakana and Forever Together. Folk Opera spent most of her time in England, where she won a couple minor stakes and a group II. Then she came to North America and took the grade I E.P. Taylor. It was a solid year, but not enough for me.

Obviously, Goldikova's BC Mile win over the boys was spectacular; maybe the best performance of the whole weekend. She also won a pair of group I races and a group III in France. On paper and on the track, she is probably the most talented among these. But again, she had one race in the U.S. It's an American-based award and therefore, I couldn't vote for her. You have to take a stand somewhere.

Mauralakana was probably my favorite female turfer all year. She showed a ton of heart in her four straight wins, the last one coming in the grade I Beverly D. I really enjoyed watching her run, as she tried every time out. I wanted to vote for her, but I just felt as though Forever Together did a little more. Trained by Jonathan Sheppard, Forever Together won four times on grass, three of them coming in grade I events. For me, her BC Filly & Mare turf win locked up the award.

Jockey

On paper, Garrett Gomez would seem to have the upper hand here. Go-Go is first in earnings with more than $22 million and has a big lead in graded stakes victories.

But when deciding on this award, I think you have to dig a little deeper than rankings. You have to consider everything and watch a lot of racing to see who really gets the most out of every mount. To me, that is Rafael Bejarano.

Bejarano is not only second in earnings and has more grade I wins (9) than anyone, but he was absolutely dominating in California. He is on his way to a California sweep, where he will become only the third rider to win all five meet titles in the state - all of this coming in his first full year in California. You rarely get a bad ride out of Bejarano either. He seems to always get the nod in photos too, which is the sign of a great rider.