Breeders Cup Chat : Gio Ponti

A Classic in the Making

jshandler — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 02:20:00 GMT

So you're not a big fan of synthetics, you say?

Me neither. The intent was good. Unfortunately, it just didn't work out as planned. I think most of us would agree on this by now.

But here's the thing: It's Breeders' Cup time. For the second straight year, I'm tired of all the complaining. The World Championships are at Santa Anita, again. Deal with it. The races are going to be fun. Let's enjoy them.

The ironic thing is, because the Breeders' Cup is once again on synthetics, the Classic is shaping up to be one heck of a race. Think about it.

Let's start with the Euros. Already confirmed for the race are Irish 2000 Guineas winner Matsercraftsman and QEII winner Rip Van Winkle, both trained by Aidan O'Brien. Also under consideration is perhaps the best 3-year-old on the planet, Sea the Stars, who is a perfect 6-for-6 in European major races, including last week's Arc de Triomphe score.

The possible presence of all of these Euro stars is due only to the fact that the Classic is being held on a synthetic surface. None would even be considered the race if it were on natural dirt. As we saw last year, the Euros add a whole new dimension to the race. After all, it is the WORLD Championships.

Over on this side of the pond, the Classic is likely to include our best turf horse--Gio Ponti. He will be a huge x-factor in the race. And again, Christophe Clement would not have considered the race without the synthetic factor.

Speaking of older stars, we're going to get to see Einstein, who has dropped off a tad in last couple but is still a super horse with a synthetic background.

Want local stars? How about Rail Trip, a proven synthetic grade I winner who might be sitting on a huge race at a track he loves. And don't forget about Bob Baffert's Richard's Kid, who upset Rail Trip in the Pacific Classic; Colonel John; Tiago; and Chocolate Candy, all of them prepping in this weekend's Goodwood.

Then we move on to our East Coast based 3-year-olds. There is no hotter horse than Summer Bird. Don't forget, he trained over the Santa Anita Pro-Ride for four months.

And we can't leave out the Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird, who will face older horses for the first time in the Goodwood. Again, he is proven on synthetics.

Oh yeah. I almost forgot about Zenyatta. Personally, I think there is little to no chance that the connections try her in the Classic, but its been bandied about for so long now I had to mention her.

How's that for a potential Breeders'Cup Classic field?

Let me reiterate again: I'm not a fan of synthetics. But even the most ardent critic would have to admit their presence has helped draw a potentially excellent Classic field for the second straight year, even if by accident. Yes, we lose Rachel Alexandra. She would have added a great deal to the field, but for all of Jess Jackson's complaining, I'm not even sure he would have run her in this year's Classic even if it were on dirt. I think he would have shut her down by now anyway.

Tell me, which older horse are you upset about not seeing in the Classic because it's on a synthetic? In other words, if the race was on dirt, how would the field look?

We're exactly four weeks away from the Breeders' Cup. Let's stop all the synthetic complaing for one month and enjoy what could be one of the best Classics in a long time.

Jockey Club Gold Cup Weekend Analysis

jshandler — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 16:13:00 GMT

Over the next two weekends, 41 graded stakes will be run. Many of them will have Breeders' Cup implications. All of them present us with an opportunity to make money. Let's get to work.

On Saturday, Belmont takes center stage with five grade I's on Jockey Club Gold Cup day. Let's take a brief look at each of them and try to put together a winning late Pick 4.

(Current weather forecast in New York for Saturday is scattered thunderstorms and 60% chance of rain).

Race 6-Beldame

This is probably the least interesting of the Belmont stakes since it drew only four betting interests and Music Note is 2-5 on the morning line. Anyone going to try to beat her? I'm not. Although I won't bet the race, I will watch it with great interest since I really believe Music Note could be the horse to beat in the Ladies Classic.

Race 7-Vosburgh (start of late Pick 4)

Only a five-horse field but still a challenging race to handicap. Fabulous Strike is obviously the one to beat since he continues to be in terrific form, comes in fresh, and is a head away from winning this race two years in a row. But he is far from a lock in here.

Go Go Shoot draws the rail and will have first jump on the field. He nearly had enough in the Vanderbilt but couldn't hold on. He won't have the luxury of an eight-pound weight break this time however, and that could be a factor. He has never carried 124 pounds. And he gets Maragh for the first time.

If anyone takes down Fab Strike I think it will be Munnings. He cuts back to six furlongs for the first time since breaking his maiden and should be able to take advantage of a hot pace with a late bid. He loves this track and has been facing the best 3-year-olds all season long. He could be tough.

Race 8-Flower Bowl

Tough call here and it's the place where I go deepest in my Pick 4. Strong cases can be made for favorites Carribean Sunset, Dynaforce, and Pure Clan. It may be Pure Clan's turn to run a big one. She didn't have the best of trips when beaten 1 1/2 lengths by Dynaforce in the Beverly D and goes back to a distance she enjoys. If the ground comes up soft it could be to her benefit, as she ran a big one over the yielding turf in last year's Garden City. I give her the slight edge.

I also wouldn't discount Criticism at a price. She'll be near the lead on a course she runs well on and at a distance that suits her. She comes in fresher than many of these.

Euro invader Moneycantbymelove is also a factor if the ground is soft. She ran a big one at Goodwood last out against two very good fillies.

Race 9-Turf Classic

I don't see Gio Ponti getting beat, soft ground or not. Yes, he has to go a distance he's never been tested at before, but he had plenty left in his last two so it shouldn't be a problem. It's also not the toughest of fields. Telling probably won't run back to his last, Presious Passion is likely to scratch because of the weather, and Grand Couturier was beaten soundly by Gio Ponti earlier this summer. If anyone pulls the upset it may be Musketier, who could be alone on the lead if Presious Passion scratches. Still, this looks like a single to me. Gio Ponti and Musketier in an exacta box.

Race 10-Jockey Club Gold Cup

Seems like many think Summer Bird is just too good right now and he will lock up the 3YO championship with another big effort. Not so fast.

If the track is wet Summer Bird certainly will have an advantage, but he isn't the only one who likes an off going. Macho Again is 2-for-2 on a wet track and Dry Martini also doesn't seem to mind it. There is no doubt that Macho Again is in the best form of his career and if he runs back to his Woodward form he should win. Ten furlongs is probably not his ideal distance however, so he may be up against it.

Dry Martini is very tempting. He really likes Belmont and if you are willing to throw out his Whitney he could be a play at a nice price. He's worked sharply since that last race and has a win at the distance. Barclay Tagg sounds confident.

Quality Road is the wild card. He certainly should be better prepared for this one and the third start off a layoff is a nice angle. I have a feeling he will run big.

I think Summer Bird gets beat.

$1 Pick 4 ticket: (3) Munnings, (5) Fabulous Strike/ (1) Caribbean Sunset and Beauty O' Gwaun, (3) Pure Clan, (4) Dynaforce, (5) Criticism, (7) Moneycantbymelove/ (1) Gio Ponti/ (2) Macho Again, (6) Dry Martini, (7) Quality Road.

It's a $30 ticket.

Good luck to all this weekend. What's your late Pick 4? Any other races you like from around the country?

Division Rankings With Two Months To Go

jshandler — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 20:02:00 GMT

With less than two months remaining until the World Championships, I thought it would be a good time to briefly go over some of the division leaders. Obviously, there is much to be decided, and like last year, the synthetic cloud hangs over the status of several horses, most notably in the Classic.

Anyway, here is what I came up with for a few divisions. It's a rough list, so Im sure I left some good horses out. (And I'm sure many of you will let me know about it). Feel free to discuss other divisions I didn't get to. Let the debating begin...

Classic

I do not think Sea the Stars, Zenyatta, or Gio Ponti will go in the Classic for one reason or another. There are many others I'm unsure about too, but my top three are probable.

1. Einstein - His solid Pacific Classic effort proved he's back.
2. Rail Trip - Will be tough in his backyard.
3. Mastercraftsman - Might be the Euros top threat.

Under consideration: Macho Again, Quality Road, Bullsbay, and Summer Bird all a notch below right now because of the synthetic question mark. Fame and Glory (Euro), Mine That Bird and Colonel John deserve consideration too.

Ladies Classic

1. Zenyatta: It's hers to lose. Can't see her going against the boys.
2. Music Note: She's back in a big way and we know she likes Santa Anita.
3. Careless Jewel: Alabama was scary good and we know she can run on synthetics.

Under consideration: Life Is Sweet, Icon Project, Seventh Street, Sara Louise, Stardom Bound

Turf

1. Gio Ponti: I think this will be the spot. He'll be a handful.
2. Conduit: Defending champ is back in top form.
3. Midships: It will be interesting to see how he comes back.

Under consideration: Obviously, Sea the Stars if he chooses this spot but I think he'll stay in Europe. Also, Spring House, Presious Passion, and Just as Well. Of course, this list doesn't include other top Euros aiming for the race, but won't know too much until after the Arc.

Filly & Mare Turf

1. Forever Together: Champ is locked and loaded again
2. Magical Fantasy: Three huge efforts in a row. Best of the West.
3. Dar Re Mi: May be best of loaded Euro contingent. Might go to Mile too.

Under consideration: Alnadana (Euro), Dynaforce, Gozzip Girl, Midday (Euro), Flying Cloud (Euro)

Mile

1. Goldikova: Hard to imagine anyone beating the defending champ right now. I wonder if her presence will discourage others from entering?
2. Justenuffhumor: Looks like McLaughlin will shorten up.
3. Battle of Hastings: A nose away from three in a row.

Under consideration: Bribon, Mr. Sidney, De Re Mi

Dirt Mile

1. Big Drama: King's Bishop was a throw out because of the wet track. But will he like Pro-Ride?
2. Informed: Pacific Classic proved he needs shorter.
3. Smooth Air: Whitney was a step back, but he is still formidable.

Under consideration: Charitable Man, Coal Play, Assessment, Mast Track, Bribon

Sprint

Zensational: Looks unbeatable on synthetics
Fabulous Strike: If it was on dirt, he'd be the pick
Kodiak Kowboy: Had a win on Poly as a juvenile

Under consideration: Capt. Candyman Can, Vineyard Haven, Pyro, Munnings, This Ones For Phil

Arlington Million, Whitney Weekend Analysis

jshandler — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 05:21:00 GMT

As a fan of racing and wagering, Arlington Million day is always one of my favorite events of the year--solid, deep fields, top horses from all over Europe, and some of the best turf racing offered in this country. The Million is perhaps my favorite turf race of the season, other than the Breeders' Cup races.

There are also many other big races from around the nation this weekend as well, including the Whitney, Test and Vanderbilt from Saratoga, and the Bing Crosby and Clement Hirsch from Del Mar, the latter featuring the undefeated Zenyatta. Let touch on a few of these and we can talk more in depth about all of them on Friday's live blog, which begins at noon.

Arlington Million

This year the American's seem to have an edge, especially with the presence of Gio Ponti, Einstein and Presious Passion, who have a total of six grade I wins between them this season alone. It's hard to dismiss Gio Ponti since he fires almost every time and has won two of three starts at this distance. He also has run well on both firm and soft turf, even though the weather is supposed to be fine for Saturday. Christophe Clement has won nearly every big turf race this country has to offer, including the last two editions of the Beverly D., but has never won a Million. This would seem to be his best shot.

Einstein will certainly be tough too and Presious Passion is dangerous on the front end if Recapturetheglory doesn't go with him. Just as Well deserves consideration too after coming off a win on the course in the Arlington Classic. Jonathan Sheppard owns and trains the son of A.P. Indy, which is never a bad thing. He will be a big price. As for the Euros, I like Cima de Triomphe the best of the three. He's a horse who either wins or doesn't fire. The Italian Derby winner won a group II two starts back in England and ran fourth to Sea the Stars in the Coral-Eclipse last out. He has been settling in nicely at Arlington for more than week.

The Pick: It's hard to separate many of these, so I'll just give out an exacta box: Gio Ponti, Just as Well and Cima de Triomphe. I'll leave out Einstein at my own risk.

Whitney

Commentator goes for his third Whitney win and has been working lights out coming into the race. Had it not been for the entry of Tizway, it would be very hard to pick against the 8-year-old star. But the speedy Tizway won't let him alone on the lead and could challenge him enough to set up one of the horses stalking the pace. A couple good candidates are Smooth Air and and Asiatic Boy.

Smooth Air has been very consistent this season, finishing first or second in all four starts. He makes his second start for new trainer Chad Brown and should get a nice, ground-saving trip from post 1, and have first run at Commentator in the stretch. He'll be a nice price. Asiatic Boy makes his third start for Kiaran McLaughlin in the U.S. and seems to be right on the edge of winning a big one over ere. He could have very easily won the Stephen Foster. The cut back in distance from the Suburban could help. Dry Martini also seems to be in his best form in quite a while and should be considered.

The Pick: I'll take a stab with Smooth Air to win and box him in an exacta with Commentator and Asiatic Boy.

Clement Hirsch

Zenyatta tries to stay undefeated in a race she won the year before. It's always difficult to pick against her and the race isn't a great one from a betting perspective, but I'll try to make a case for Life is Sweet, her stablemate and the probable second choice.

Life is Sweet was second by less than two lengths to Zenyatta in the Milady in May, then came back to run a solid third against males in the Gold Cup. She will make her first start at Del Mar, but has been training lights over the surface, as evidenced by her huge work on Aug. 2. A cutback to 1 1/16 miles may be to her advantage and if she likes the surface, she could get the jump on Zenyatta.

The Pick: What the heck, I'll take a stab with a small win bet on Life is Sweet and also box her in a trifecta with Zenyatta and Dawn After Dawn, who had the lead at the top of the stretch in the 1 1/8-mile Vanity before finishing third.

Other quick picks for the weekend: Take the Points in the Secretariat, Black Mamba in the Beverly D., and Fabulous Strike in the Vanderbilt.

Good luck to all. Who do you like?

Horse of the Year - Rachel Isn't a Lock Yet

jshandler — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 18:58:00 GMT

It doesn't matter what month it is on the calendar, Horse of the Year debate is always fun. And since some of you brought it up on the previous blog, let's examine it a little deeper.

Before we do, let me preface this by saying what we are doing here is pure speculation. There are a ton of ‘what ifs' in these scenarios and we are assuming many things. We won't solve anything here (do we ever?), but since the goal of this blog is to have healthy debate, let's take a stab at this thing.

This is what we know: Rachel Alexandra will not be going to the Breeders' Cup because it is on "plastic," according to her owner Jess Jackson. Ok, fine Jess. By choosing not to go to California, however, you are leaving the door open for someone else to steal Horse of the Year. How, you ask? Well, let me start the speculation.

For argument sake, let's assume Rachel wins the Haskell and then Jackson sends her to the Alabama, where she dominates again. Are those two wins enough to lock up the award for her? Not in my opinion. If he decides to bypass the Travers, in my opinion, Rachel may have to do something else to hold off some of the other candidates I will mention in a moment.

What else does Rachel have to do in the aforementioned scenario? Well, she may have to beat older horses, something she has not done yet. Though she has been simply dominating every time out, the 3-year-old class, both fillies and males, isn't exactly the strongest group we've ever seen. If Rachel isn't going to the BC, she may need to win a race against older horses, perhaps the Oct. 3 Beldame at Belmont.

All this is a moot point, in my opinion, if Jackson sends her to the Travers and she wins. That would lock things up for her, no matter what else happens. Kentucky Oaks, Preakness, Mother Goose, Haskell and Travers wins. Game over. However, my gut tells me he does not want to run her 1 1/4 against males at Saratoga. We shall see.

So who could beat her out if she doesn't win the Travers or beat older horses? Well, Einstein for one. The 7-year-old already has claimed the Santa Anita Handicap and Woodford Reserve Turf Classic. If he should also win the Aug. 8 Arlington Million that would be his third grade I win of the year. If he should then go to the BC Classic, wouldn't he have to be considered for HOY if he wins? Absolutely. That would be one impressive résumé. He will have won a pair of $1 million races as well as a $5 million race - all against older horses. Rachel would be by no means a lock if she doesn't do one of the two things I mentioned earlier.

What about Gio Ponti? He has rattled off three straight GI wins so far. What if he should beat Einstein in the Arlington Million, maybe win another in the fall, and then head into either the BC Turf or BC Classic having accomplished all of that? Are you going to tell me he wouldn't have a chance at HOY with five or six grade I wins - all against large fields? Granted, they will all have been on turf (assuming he doesn't go to the Classic), but still...

Finally, there is Zenyatta. Her schedule has been far from challenging so far, but she still has a shot. Assuming she takes the same path as last year, she would collect wins in the Clement Hirsch next month, the Lady's Secret in September, and then be set up for a run in the BC Classic. If she defeats males in the Classic that would be five wins this season - four in grade I - and it would make her a perfect 14-for-14 in her career. You going to tell me a bunch of people won't vote for her if she ends her career by beating the best males in the Classic?

So all of you people who think Rachel has things locked up in July, you'd better think again. What she has done thus far has been sensational, but there are other horses having terrific seasons as well. And when you don't show up for the World Championships, you are leaving the door wide open for someone to steal it.

Your thoughts?

Division Leaders

jshandler — Tue, 12 Aug 2008 21:26:00 GMT

We're now a little more than five weeks into the Breeders' Cup season and the divisions are beginning to take shape. The continuing story thus far is how the male division seemingly gets more ordinary every day while the female division continues to get more exciting. Unless this Big Brown-Curlin thing actually happens, there is no doubt the Ladies Classic will be much more interesting come late October. I forget, what day is the Ladies Classic being run? Never mind.

Anyway, with about two more months of Breeders' Challenge events left to go, I thought it would be a good idea to take a look at a few of the divisions. Let's do our best to rank the top 3 American-based horses in each one. Here goes:

Classic

1. Curlin - You still have to give him the edge even though we have no idea if Jess Jackson will send him to Santa Anita.

2. Big Brown - Looking forward to seeing the spot they pick for him. Something tells me it will be the Pennsylvania Derby.

3. Commentator - He ran the year's top Beyer (119) so you have to respect him. Looks like he'll go to the Mass Cap next month and point towards the Classic. But can he get 1 1/4 miles?

Don't forget about: Henrythenavigator - He's won four consecutive group I races and some say he is the best horse in the world. Aidan O'Brian says he will point towards this race, which should spice things up.

Ladies Classic

1. Ginger Punch - She's the champ. Until someone proves otherwise, I'm ranking her above Zenyatta.

2 . Zenyatta - Undefeated and getting better. Has a huge advantage because of the synthetics.

3. Music Note - Looking forward to this weekend's Alabama. She might be the best of them all.

Don't forget about: Hystericalady. She lost by a nose in the '07 Distaff and is even better this year.

Tough for me to leave out Proud Spell and Little Belle, but what can you do?

Turf

1. Red Rocks - Won the best U.S. turf race this year.

2. Gio Ponti - Hasn't faced grade I company yet, but a star in the making.

3. Einstein - Had a poor start in the Million, but the loss was more than just that.

Don't forget about: Any European. The Americans will have their hands full against all of them. All three that took money in Arlington Million might be back for BC.

Filly & Mare Turf

1. Mauralakana - Gotta love her. She just knows how to get it done.

2. Forever Together - Diana was no fluke.

3. Black Mamba - Not BC nominated, but owners will probably fork over the cash.

Don't forget about: J'ray: She narrowly lost to Mauralakana twice.

Sprint

1. Benny the Bull: All he does is win. The way he powers down the stretch is breathtaking.

2. J Be K - Has never lost at less than a mile.

3. Street Boss - That's five in a row for the synthetic specialist.

Don't forget about: Kodiak Kowboy: Highly-touted as a 2-year-old, he might be coming into his own.

Mile

1. Kip Deville: Pure miler is lightly-raced this year, but will be primed and ready for Santa Anita.

2. Daytona -Tired in American Handicap. A mile might be his best distance.

3. Monzante - Just beginning to hit his best stride.

Don't forget about: Red Giant: Very impressive off a 10-month layoff. Not sure what his best distance is, but Pletcher will figure it out.

More division rankings to come later...