Breeders Cup Chat : Goldikova

Division Rankings With Two Months To Go

jshandler — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 20:02:00 GMT

With less than two months remaining until the World Championships, I thought it would be a good time to briefly go over some of the division leaders. Obviously, there is much to be decided, and like last year, the synthetic cloud hangs over the status of several horses, most notably in the Classic.

Anyway, here is what I came up with for a few divisions. It's a rough list, so Im sure I left some good horses out. (And I'm sure many of you will let me know about it). Feel free to discuss other divisions I didn't get to. Let the debating begin...

Classic

I do not think Sea the Stars, Zenyatta, or Gio Ponti will go in the Classic for one reason or another. There are many others I'm unsure about too, but my top three are probable.

1. Einstein - His solid Pacific Classic effort proved he's back.
2. Rail Trip - Will be tough in his backyard.
3. Mastercraftsman - Might be the Euros top threat.

Under consideration: Macho Again, Quality Road, Bullsbay, and Summer Bird all a notch below right now because of the synthetic question mark. Fame and Glory (Euro), Mine That Bird and Colonel John deserve consideration too.

Ladies Classic

1. Zenyatta: It's hers to lose. Can't see her going against the boys.
2. Music Note: She's back in a big way and we know she likes Santa Anita.
3. Careless Jewel: Alabama was scary good and we know she can run on synthetics.

Under consideration: Life Is Sweet, Icon Project, Seventh Street, Sara Louise, Stardom Bound

Turf

1. Gio Ponti: I think this will be the spot. He'll be a handful.
2. Conduit: Defending champ is back in top form.
3. Midships: It will be interesting to see how he comes back.

Under consideration: Obviously, Sea the Stars if he chooses this spot but I think he'll stay in Europe. Also, Spring House, Presious Passion, and Just as Well. Of course, this list doesn't include other top Euros aiming for the race, but won't know too much until after the Arc.

Filly & Mare Turf

1. Forever Together: Champ is locked and loaded again
2. Magical Fantasy: Three huge efforts in a row. Best of the West.
3. Dar Re Mi: May be best of loaded Euro contingent. Might go to Mile too.

Under consideration: Alnadana (Euro), Dynaforce, Gozzip Girl, Midday (Euro), Flying Cloud (Euro)

Mile

1. Goldikova: Hard to imagine anyone beating the defending champ right now. I wonder if her presence will discourage others from entering?
2. Justenuffhumor: Looks like McLaughlin will shorten up.
3. Battle of Hastings: A nose away from three in a row.

Under consideration: Bribon, Mr. Sidney, De Re Mi

Dirt Mile

1. Big Drama: King's Bishop was a throw out because of the wet track. But will he like Pro-Ride?
2. Informed: Pacific Classic proved he needs shorter.
3. Smooth Air: Whitney was a step back, but he is still formidable.

Under consideration: Charitable Man, Coal Play, Assessment, Mast Track, Bribon

Sprint

Zensational: Looks unbeatable on synthetics
Fabulous Strike: If it was on dirt, he'd be the pick
Kodiak Kowboy: Had a win on Poly as a juvenile

Under consideration: Capt. Candyman Can, Vineyard Haven, Pyro, Munnings, This Ones For Phil

More Close Calls With Eclipse Awards

jshandler — Wed, 17 Dec 2008 19:47:00 GMT

The voting for the 2008 Eclipse Awards began last week and writers have until Jan. 5^th to cast their ballots. The awards will be presented in Miami on Jan. 26^th.

During the past few days I have completed my homework and made up my mind on nearly all of the divisions. As we have chatted about previously, Horse of the Year, Sprint and 3-year-old Filly are all highly debatable, and will likely be very close. Other than those three, there are a few others that were difficult decisions. I'll list them below and look forward to your thoughts on each one.

Older Turf Male

This one was especially difficult, as to me, there was no real standout. Horses that I seriously considered were Conduit, Kip Deville, Einstein and Grand Couturier.

Conduit will get a lot of votes based on his sensational Breeders' Cup win, especially in light of runner-up Eagle Mountain's win in Hong Kong last weekend. But I have a difficulty voting for a horse that made just one start in the U.S. It's just a rule I have. The BC and his two group stakes wins in England probably makes him the favorite, but he didn't get my vote. I also don't think Kip Deville did enough. Had he put forth a good showing in Hong Kong maybe I would have changed my mind.

It came down to Einstein and Grand Couturier. On turf, Einstein was 3-2-0 from six starts, with his wins coming in an optional claimer, the grade I Gulfstream Turf and grade I Turf Classic at Churchill. He had a terrific season and his win on the dirt in the Clark added to his versatility. My only knock against Einstein is that he didn't win on turf the second half of the season.

Grand Couturier was 2-0-1 from five starts, his wins coming in the grade I Sword Dancer at Saratoga and grade I Turf Classic Invitational at Belmont. The latter was one of the best performances we have seen all season - scoring by a ridiculous 10 lengths. I'm still undecided about this one.

Older Turf Female

Another difficult choice. My finalists were Folk Opera, Goldikova, Mauralakana and Forever Together. Folk Opera spent most of her time in England, where she won a couple minor stakes and a group II. Then she came to North America and took the grade I E.P. Taylor. It was a solid year, but not enough for me.

Obviously, Goldikova's BC Mile win over the boys was spectacular; maybe the best performance of the whole weekend. She also won a pair of group I races and a group III in France. On paper and on the track, she is probably the most talented among these. But again, she had one race in the U.S. It's an American-based award and therefore, I couldn't vote for her. You have to take a stand somewhere.

Mauralakana was probably my favorite female turfer all year. She showed a ton of heart in her four straight wins, the last one coming in the grade I Beverly D. I really enjoyed watching her run, as she tried every time out. I wanted to vote for her, but I just felt as though Forever Together did a little more. Trained by Jonathan Sheppard, Forever Together won four times on grass, three of them coming in grade I events. For me, her BC Filly & Mare turf win locked up the award.

Jockey

On paper, Garrett Gomez would seem to have the upper hand here. Go-Go is first in earnings with more than $22 million and has a big lead in graded stakes victories.

But when deciding on this award, I think you have to dig a little deeper than rankings. You have to consider everything and watch a lot of racing to see who really gets the most out of every mount. To me, that is Rafael Bejarano.

Bejarano is not only second in earnings and has more grade I wins (9) than anyone, but he was absolutely dominating in California. He is on his way to a California sweep, where he will become only the third rider to win all five meet titles in the state - all of this coming in his first full year in California. You rarely get a bad ride out of Bejarano either. He seems to always get the nod in photos too, which is the sign of a great rider.

Top 10 Performances of 2008

jshandler — Fri, 12 Dec 2008 16:56:00 GMT

Although the Eclipse Awards are six weeks away and the best horses in each division will be decided then, I thought it would be a fun to do some voting of our own.

Since I still haven't decided on some of the divisions and I don't expect you guys/gals to do all that research, we'll keep this simple. This is a vote for the Top 10 Performances of 2008. It can be for any division, in any single race.

Obviously, there are many to choose from, that's what makes this so tough and fun. After reading mine, I'd love to see what everyone agrees and disagrees with. Feel free to post your own Top 10.

10. Commentator, Whitney Handicap - This was the highlight of the remarkable gelding's fabulous year. He not only won the event for the second straight year by nearly five lengths, but posted a 120 Beyer, which was by far the highest number of any dirt horse going more than a mile this season. Of course, he also recorded the best Beyer at less than a mile in 2008 as well. Not a bad year for a 7-year-old.

9. Benny The Bull, Dubai Golden Shaheen - All four of Benny's wins came in spectacular, come-from-behind fashion, so it was tough to choose between them. I nearly picked the True North Handicap at Belmont because it looked like he had no chance to win in deep stretch but somehow got up with a devastating late charge. However, you can't overlook his performance in Dubai, which was against better. It was breathtaking.

8. Proud Spell, Kentucky Oaks - The Larry Jones trainee not only beat a solid field of 3-year-old fillies, she destroyed them. The five-length victory gives her the edge over Music Note for divisional championship honors.

7. Red Giant, Clement Hirsch Turf Championship - Not only did the 4-year-old colt show grit in edging Out of Control by a head, but he set a new North American 1 1/4-mile turf record in 1:57.16, breaking a mark that had stood since 1977. That's impressive. Out of Control's effort should not be overlooked either.

6. Curlin, Dubai World Cup - His 7 3/4-length romp wasn't against the best of fields, but it was still a tremendous effort. It also solidified him as one of the best horses since the turn of the century.

5. Goldikova, Breeders' Cup Mile - The French invader knocked off a talented group of boys, including last year's winner Kip Deville, in spectacular fashion. Her turn of foot in the final sixteenth was eye-popping, and a highlight of the weekend.

4. Midnight Lute, Breeders' Cup Sprint - Speaking of BC highlights, the 5-year-old Real Quiet horse may have provided the weekend's best performance with his amazing 1 3/4-length score, in which he set the BC record of 1:07.77 for six furlongs. It was his second straight BC Sprint win and amazingly, came in only his second start of the year.

3. Stardom Bound, Oak Leaf - Her BC Juvenile Fillies win was great too, but the Oak Leaf was even more dazzling. The Tapit filly rallied from the clouds to mow down rivals in the stretch in a scintillating 3 1/2-length score, doing it in a time of 1:42.44.

2. Zenyatta, Apple Blossom Handicap - It's difficult to choose her best performance of the year since she went undefeated. Obviously, her Ladies Classic triumph was special and locked up divisional honors. But the Apple Blossom was scary good. The 4 1/2-length victory was against a very good group, including champion Ginger Punch, and it proved she was just as good on dirt as synthetics, if not better.

1. Big Brown, Kentucky Derby - Many of us have gone on record as saying Big Brown was not our favorite horse, but you cannot discount what he did in the Derby. It was one of the best performances since Secretariat, considering he did it from the 20-post and in only his fourth career start, and it was so dominating. It may be a long time before we see a 3-year-old do that again under those circumstances.

Some of the great performances I reluctantly left out of my Top 10 were Old Fashioned in the Remsen, Pyro in the Risen Star, Big Brown in the Florida Derby and Preakness, Da' Tara in the Belmont, Raven's Pass in the BC Classic and Eight Belles in the Derby.

Let the debating begin!!

Breeders' Cup Thoughts - One Day After

jshandler — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 13:26:00 GMT

What a great weekend of racing. We saw several outstanding performances, including three on Ladies Day Friday and many more on what will be now known as "European Saturday." Less than 24 hours after a very successful Breeders' Cup 25, here are a few thoughts and a breakdown of some of the standout races:

First of all, hopefully we haven't seen the last of Curlin, but if we did it was a disappointing way to go out. Most of the 50,000 at Santa Anita were pulling for the superstar to defend his Classic title. It wasn't meant to be. As I wrote on Friday, he had too much going against him - the lack of significant early speed and more than anything, he was just slowing down after a long campaign. Whether Curlin fans want to admit it or not, he hasn't looked all that sharp in his last two starts and after finally facing some elite competition, it caught up with him Saturday.

There should no excuses about the Pro-Ride, surface, which played fair all weekend. Curlin got beat fair and square by a couple very good Europeans. Give Raven's Pass all the credit. He is peaking at the right time while still going through a long season against the best in Europe. It was his first time on the surface as well.

By the way, I don't like kicking people when they are down, but did I tell you about Casino Drive or what? He just wasn't ready for that class. I still can't believe how low his odds were.

To reiterate about the Pro-Ride, I am one of those who was very impressed with the surface. After talking with trainers and horsemen all week, most had good things to say about it. There seemed to be no biases and most horses got over it very well. For all the complaining about having a Breeders' Cup on a synthetic surface, I think it turned out to be a success. It also played very fair from a handicapping standpoint. And most importantly, there were no breakdowns.

I thought Ladies Day Friday worked very well too. It gave horses like Ventura, Stardom Bound and Zenyatta a showcase and they shined. I know some people still don't like the idea of having the fillies and mares run on a different day, but after Friday I would say the majority of the people I talked to thought it was a success. I would still go back to ‘Distaff' instead of ‘Ladies Classic', but I give the Breeders' Cup credit for trying to be creative.

Here are thoughts on some of the races:

Filly and Mare Sprint - The first of three spectacular performances on Friday. Ventura capped a terrific 4-year-old campaign, where she won three stakes and earned more than $1.2 million for Juddmonte. Nothing less than an outstanding performance would have beaten Indian Blessing, who also ran a winning race. They are two special fillies and hopefully we wil see them next year.

Juvenile Fillies - In the week leading up to the race many people at Santa Anita thought Stardom Bound was vulnerable because of her running style. I was not one of them. What I saw in the Debutante and Oak Leaf told me that this is one freaky filly. She confirmed it in the BC with another breathtaking win. Seeing Stardom Bound make that move around the turn was one of the highlights of the weekend. I cannot wait to see where she lands as a 3-year-old and what she will accomplish. She will be one of the major stories of 2009.

Ladies Classic - What can you say about Zenyatta that hasn't already been said? She is truly spectacular. Her seemingly effort Ladies Classic win capped an exciting Friday and kept her undefeated in nine starts. We can only hope she runs next year, and who knows, maybe a year from now she will try to the boys in the Classic.

Also, there is plenty of time for this, but Horse of the Year is now going to be very interesting between Zenyatta and Curlin. Both are certainly deserving and my early guess is Curlin has the edge. But Zenyatta is going to garner a lot of votes. Let the debating begin!!

Turf Sprint - Great race, great finish. I wasn't one of those who had $75 winner Desert Code, but it would have been nice to have the biggest score of the weekend. Anyone have it? Just goes to show that toteboards can light up when you have ridiculous early fractions.

Dirt Mile - I wound up playing Albertus Maximus after A) seeing his nice odds compared to Well Armed and B) watching how good he looked in the paddock. I am usually not one of those with an astute eye for picking out horses who look good before the race, but when I saw Albertus Maximus 10 minutes before post I ran to the window. This is one of the most physically impressive colts I have seen in a long time and he proved it on the track. Great job by cutting-edge trainer Vladimir Cerin, who turned this horse around after taking over for Gary Mandella. One of his secrets? Using a hyperbaric chamber to help him recover faster. Very cool. I am looking forward to seeing Albertus Maximus race as a 5-year-old. He has a lot of upside. I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the 2009 Classic.

Mile - Wow. Goldikova's turn of foot in the final sixteenth was breathtaking. It was definitely a weekend highlight. Kip Deville ran a winning type race, but was no match for this freaky 3-year-old filly. Not sure what the future holds for either, but it certainly was a memorable race.

Sprint - The most disappointing race of the week for me. I touted Fabulous Strike, but he just didn't fire. Not sure what happened to him, but even at his best he probably wouldn't have beaten Midnight Lute or Fatal Bullet, who ran a huge race. What a job Bob Baffert has done with Midnight Lute, who in the early part of the season didn't even look like he would make it back to the track. Winning two consecutive BC Sprint's is a tremendous accomplishment. Hats off.

Saturday Picks, Part 1

jshandler — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 20:21:00 GMT

Marathon

Earlier in the week I was leaning towards Delightful Kiss, who enters in good form and has consecutive grade III wins over synthetic surfaces. His bullet work at Golden Gate Oct. 12 confirms the 4-year-old gelding is as good as he has ever been for Pete Anderson.

As the week has gone on, however, I am feeling the Euros more, especially Muhannak and Sixtees Icon. Muhannak has not only won four in a row, but has earned consecutive wins on the Polytrack in Europe. The Chester House gelding has been a consistent stakes winner, has won at a 1 1/2 miles and is 4-1-2 on synthetics in his career. Somehow, the Irish-bred is a nice 20-1 overlay. Sixtees Icon, the 2-1 morning-line favorite, has won three consecutive group stakes and four of six this season. The group I winner and former Arc entrant is the class of the field and deserves a lot of attention despite having never started on synthetic.

The Pick: Mile and a half dirt races are rare in the United States. Since this is the inaugural running of this event, I'm going to put most of my money on the aforementioned Euros, who have much more experience winning at this distance. I'll box Muhannak, Sixtees Icon and Delightful Kiss in an exacta, and on top, I'll take Sixtees Icon, who is much more accomplished than any of these. I should be able to get 2-1 or more on the 5-year-old.

Turf Sprint

This is as wide-open an event as there is all weekend. Get Funky being the 9-2 morning-line favorite is conformation of that. Mr. Nightlinger, the 6-1 second choice, could go off as the favorite when all is said and done. The Indian Charlie colt has won five in a row with consistent speed figures to go along with each victory. The 14 post should actually be a benefit since they will be coming out of the downhill shoot. He must be respected.

Idiot Proof is also worthy of consideration. Second to Midnight Lute in last year's dirt sprint, he will be making just the second turf start of his career. But he was beaten only a length by Get Funky and could improve off that. Gomez helps too.

True to Tradition, One Union and Fleeting Spirit, the only filly in the race, are also interesting. Fleeting Spirit, a 3-year-old, is a multiple group winner who might appreciate 6 1/2 furlongs for the first time in her career.

The Pick: Again, this is a tough race to handicap; a lot of variables and things to consider. Look for overlays. Earlier in the week I had Mr. Nightlinger in my top spot. Now, I'm leaning towards Idiot Proof and True to Tradition. I'll box those two in an exacta and use True to Tradition as my win bet. The Scott Lake trainee will be a big price despite being very consistent this season. He should be on or near the lead.

Dirt Mile

Well Armed is going to be a handful. His form, win over the Pro-Ride, and early speed all make him tough to beat. I'm not sure I'm going to try to do it. Right now, 3-1 is looking very appetizing for a horse who some felt would have had a good chance in the Classic. He's looked great all week.

The Pick: Albertus Maximus, Surf Cat and Lewis Michael are the most logical to take down the favorite. Albertus Maximus might have more upside than anyone here and could improve off the Goodwood, where he was less than two back of Well Armed. He's had nice works too. Let's go with a Well Armed/Albertus Maximus exacta box, with Well Armed getting the slight edge for the win bet if he holds at 3-1.

Mile

Some Breeders' Cup races it makes sense to look for prices and overlays. In this one, however, look no further than the three morning-line choices - Goldikova, Whatsthescript and Kip Deville. Between them you have an exceptionally talented filly who has won three consecutive group stakes, a California-based colt entering in great form, and the defending champ. I cannot see anyone else contending.

The Pick: Trying to separate the top three is challenging. Goldikova has run two good races against Arc winner Zarkava and has won five of seven at this distance. On paper, she is the one to beat. But Whatsthescript also has a lot in his favor - huge speed figure last out, 4-for-5 at the distance and 2-for-3 on Santa Anita grass. The John Sadler and Garrett Gomez connection doesn't hurt either, which is why I'm going to take Whatsthescript in a slight upset over Goldikova and Kip Deville.

Juvenile

With some of the better 2-year-olds not making it to the race, mostly everyone has a decent chance here. Todd Pletcher sends out the favorite, Munnings, but also has a second colt to consider - Silent Valor. Despite being 15-1 on the morning-line, Silent Valor has put up very comparable speed figures and his second test at routing could see an improvement. Edgar Prado getting the mount doesn't hurt either.

Others I took a long look at were Azul Leon, Square Eddie and Midshipman, but it is Bushranger who I have really started to like as the week has worn on. The son of Danetime was installed as the fourth choice despite winning consecutive group I's in Europe. He has the perfect stalking style and gets one of the world's premier riders. He reminds some of 2001 juvenile champion Johannesburg, who came into this race in similar fashion. The question marks? Routing for the first time and moving off the turf.

The Pick: Silent Valor and Bushranger are my top two. After leaning towards Silent Valor earlier in the week, I'll likely use Bushranger as my win bet, but will play both in an exacta. Azul Leon will be in my trifecta plays as a big longshot.

** My selections for the final four Saturday races, including the Classic, will follow tomorrow.