Breeders Cup Chat : Grand Couturier

Weekend Analysis and Selections for Aug. 15-16

jshandler — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 17:23:00 GMT

It's a much lighter racing schedule this weekend, but of the graded stakes that are out there, most of them are challenging races to handicap. Let's take a quick look at some of the major races from around the country.

Sword Dancer

This came up an excellent field, with some of the top turf marathoners-many of the fan favorites-assembling at Saratoga. One of the interesting things about the Sword Dancer is that of the 10 entered, only two have ever started at Saratoga. And the two that have started-Grand Couturier and Better Talk Now-have won the race.

Obviously, Grand Couturier must be looked at seriously after winning this event the last two years. Yes, he finished off the board in both starts leading up to this race, but remember, he was sixth in the Man o' War last year before coming back to win here. Trainer Bobby Ribaudo says Grand Couturier always seems to peak at this time of the season. Although he's the morning-line favorite, he'll be a pretty fair price, as I don't expect him to get bet down much.

As I said my Handicapping Show, you can really make a case for almost all of these horses. And many of them look appetizing but have big question marks. Americain has been impressive in Europe, but makes his first U.S. start for Todd Pletcher. Rising Moon is also in decent form, but makes his first turf start since 2007. Lauro ran a big one in the United Nations, but had the advantage of a ridiculous pace set by Presious Passion. Brass Hat seems to have found a new home on grass, but is he over his head in here? You get my point.

The Pick: I settled on Musketier for several reasons. He seems to be in nice form right now, having won the Singspiel at Woodbine at this distance two back, and last out ran a big one against Gio Ponti while losing by less than two lengths. Any time you can run with the best turf horse in the country, that says a lot. Mostly though, I like Musketier from a pace scenario. There won't be much early speed in here and he should find himself alone on the lead. If he can get away with a :49 and 1:13, he will be tough to run down.

I'll take Musketier to win and box him in an exacta with Grand Couturier, Americain, and Quijano, who also could be primed for a big one.

Longacres Mile

It's not often that we get a chance to talk about a race at Emerald Downs, but the Longacres is always fun, and usually with a big field.

Awesome Gem is confirmed bridesmaid, having finished runner-up 10 times in 27 starts, and third 3 more times. Despite that, he towers over most in this field from a class standpoint and could be tough to beat if he handles a track he's never run over before. Though he's run most of the time on synthetics and grass, Awesome Gem has had some of his biggest efforts on natural dirt, including his grade II San Fernando win and third-place effort in the BC Classic on the slop at Monmouth.

The local horses are often a factor here and Assessment looks like the best on paper. But that 12 post has me looking elsewhere. Horses leaving from that post are 1-for-73 in this race. No thanks. Wasserman was the upset winner last year but is 0-for-6 this year. No thanks. Atta Boy Roy equaled the six-furlong track record two starts back, but he's is a sprinter, not a miler. So where do we go?

I think you have to take a long look at Sierra Sunset. The California shipper was off for more than year but came back in his second start to win a stakes at Pleasanton by five lengths last month. He has run his best races on dirt, including the Rebel last year when he won by three lengths and was considered a legitimate Derby prospect before being injured. He has a good work over the Emerald ground as well. He has good tactical speed, should be able to lay right off the speedy Atta Boy Roy and put himself in position to win.

The Pick: I'll go with Sierra Sunset to upset Awesome Gem. I'll box those two, along with Autism Awareness and Assessment in a trifecta.

John C. Mabee

This is another one where you can make a case for many. Magical Fantasy has won back-to-back graded stakes, including the Gamely last out. And the rapidly improving Tuscan Evening has won five of six, including the Royal Heroine last out. But the Gamlely runner-up, Visit, and the 2-3-4 finishers in the Royal Heroine all return. Throw in the surprise entrant of sprinter turned router Lethal Heat and you have a head-scratcher.

The Pick: If Patricia's Gem and Lethal Heat both go, there should be plenty of speed in here. It could set up nicely for a horse from off the pace. I'll take a stab with a filly who doesn't always like to win, but usually knocks on the door: Visit. The Bobby Frankel trainee lost by a neck in both the Santa Ana and Gamely, and seems to enjoy nine furlongs more than eight, which can excuse a couple of her off-the-board losses this season. Yes she has lost eight straight, but she has also been in the money in four of those--all in graded company. With a little luck, Visit could have won twice this year and the price would be much lower than I'll get on Sunday.

I'll play Visit to win. I'll have to wait until Saturday to see who I'll play her with.

Also, I'll try Hightap for the minor upset over Just Jenda in the Monmouth Oaks.

Who do you guys like?

More Close Calls With Eclipse Awards

jshandler — Wed, 17 Dec 2008 19:47:00 GMT

The voting for the 2008 Eclipse Awards began last week and writers have until Jan. 5^th to cast their ballots. The awards will be presented in Miami on Jan. 26^th.

During the past few days I have completed my homework and made up my mind on nearly all of the divisions. As we have chatted about previously, Horse of the Year, Sprint and 3-year-old Filly are all highly debatable, and will likely be very close. Other than those three, there are a few others that were difficult decisions. I'll list them below and look forward to your thoughts on each one.

Older Turf Male

This one was especially difficult, as to me, there was no real standout. Horses that I seriously considered were Conduit, Kip Deville, Einstein and Grand Couturier.

Conduit will get a lot of votes based on his sensational Breeders' Cup win, especially in light of runner-up Eagle Mountain's win in Hong Kong last weekend. But I have a difficulty voting for a horse that made just one start in the U.S. It's just a rule I have. The BC and his two group stakes wins in England probably makes him the favorite, but he didn't get my vote. I also don't think Kip Deville did enough. Had he put forth a good showing in Hong Kong maybe I would have changed my mind.

It came down to Einstein and Grand Couturier. On turf, Einstein was 3-2-0 from six starts, with his wins coming in an optional claimer, the grade I Gulfstream Turf and grade I Turf Classic at Churchill. He had a terrific season and his win on the dirt in the Clark added to his versatility. My only knock against Einstein is that he didn't win on turf the second half of the season.

Grand Couturier was 2-0-1 from five starts, his wins coming in the grade I Sword Dancer at Saratoga and grade I Turf Classic Invitational at Belmont. The latter was one of the best performances we have seen all season - scoring by a ridiculous 10 lengths. I'm still undecided about this one.

Older Turf Female

Another difficult choice. My finalists were Folk Opera, Goldikova, Mauralakana and Forever Together. Folk Opera spent most of her time in England, where she won a couple minor stakes and a group II. Then she came to North America and took the grade I E.P. Taylor. It was a solid year, but not enough for me.

Obviously, Goldikova's BC Mile win over the boys was spectacular; maybe the best performance of the whole weekend. She also won a pair of group I races and a group III in France. On paper and on the track, she is probably the most talented among these. But again, she had one race in the U.S. It's an American-based award and therefore, I couldn't vote for her. You have to take a stand somewhere.

Mauralakana was probably my favorite female turfer all year. She showed a ton of heart in her four straight wins, the last one coming in the grade I Beverly D. I really enjoyed watching her run, as she tried every time out. I wanted to vote for her, but I just felt as though Forever Together did a little more. Trained by Jonathan Sheppard, Forever Together won four times on grass, three of them coming in grade I events. For me, her BC Filly & Mare turf win locked up the award.

Jockey

On paper, Garrett Gomez would seem to have the upper hand here. Go-Go is first in earnings with more than $22 million and has a big lead in graded stakes victories.

But when deciding on this award, I think you have to dig a little deeper than rankings. You have to consider everything and watch a lot of racing to see who really gets the most out of every mount. To me, that is Rafael Bejarano.

Bejarano is not only second in earnings and has more grade I wins (9) than anyone, but he was absolutely dominating in California. He is on his way to a California sweep, where he will become only the third rider to win all five meet titles in the state - all of this coming in his first full year in California. You rarely get a bad ride out of Bejarano either. He seems to always get the nod in photos too, which is the sign of a great rider.

Saturday Picks, Part 2

jshandler — Sat, 25 Oct 2008 14:59:00 GMT

Juvenile Turf

Take your pick. Morning-line favorite Bittel Road and second choice Coronet of a Baron have a slight edge on paper, but this is a wide-open contest. Bittel Road, trained by Todd Pletcher, is undefeated in three starts but his speed figures are nothing staggering compared to these. He'll hope for a hot pace to close from. Coronet of a Baron missed by a nose to Midshipman at Del Mar and now tries turf for the first time.

Others to consider are European invaders Donativium and Westaphalia, Canadian shippers Grand Adventure and Skipadate, and longshot Vaquero.

The Pick: Demand value in this race because on paper there isn't much separating the major contenders. One value horse I like is Skipadate, who is 6-1 ML but might be even higher by post time. The Skip Away colt is two heads away from being undefeated and unlike many of his rivals here, all three of his efforts have been at a mile or over and on turf. He has made two big moves on the turn and his 94 Beyer is as high as anyone in here, including Grand Adventure, the colt that beat him by a head in the Summer Stakes. I've always been a fan of trainer Mark Casse, who should have this horse ready for a big effort. Skipadate on top and in exactas with Westaphalia and Donativium.

Sprint

There are some races where you tread lightly and others where you attack. This is an attack for me. Why? I love a horse here - Fabulous Strike. Part of the reason is that I have followed him his whole career and know his situation. He's a gelding that has been consistent for three seasons, but has battled illness and injury. In talking with Todd Beattie earlier this week, he confirmed that this is the first time in more than a year that Fabulous Strike has been 100% healthy. And when healthy, he is as good a sprinter as there is in the country. His Vosburgh last out was tremendous considering he ran a :44 1/5 half while being pressed by two rivals. He then gave way to Black Seventeen in deep stretch, but showed enough grit to fight back on the rail before falling a head short. When I saw how good he looked in his stall this week and Beattie confirmed he has taken to the Pro-Ride, I was all in.

The Pick: There are others to be respected here, the Sprint is always one of the deepest BC fields. Street Boss, First Defence and In Summation are all capable contenders. But Fabulous Strike is my best bet of the entire weekend and will be my largest win bet. He will be wheeled in an exacta with the rest of the field. I'll be thrilled with 5-1.

Turf

Soldier of Fortune garners the most respect based on his solid campaign, which included a group I win and last out a terrific effort in the Arc when he was beaten only 2 1/2 lengths by Zarkava. Last year's Irish Derby winner has won three times at this distance, has world-class connections and has the tracking style to win this. I also give Eagle Mountain a nice chance, although he makes only his second start this season.

Of the American-based contenders, Grand Couturier certainly enters in great form. His win in the Turf Classic where he broke the North American 1 1/8 record and earned a 112 Beyer makes him a legitimate contender. He should put on a much better showing than in last year's Turf.

The Pick: Earlier this week I gave a slight edge to Grand Couturier, but Soldier of Fortune and Eagle Mountain are just a little classier. I will be putting my win money on Soldier of Fortune, who has been a consistent money earner against the world's best turfers over the last two years. Grand Couturier will be in all exotics.

Classic

First off, Curlin has looked great this week and is getting over the track just fine. He has been flawless this season and is absolutely the best horse on paper. If he wins, nobody should be surprised. That's what champions do.

But...there are reasons why I will not bet Curlin. A) He will be 8-5 or worse in a deep and solid field B) There is really going to be no significant pace in here which is something Curlin needs with his running style C) Despite garnering high speed figures in his last two, he was not overly-impressive visually and had trouble putting away less than stellar fields. D) Curlin really hasn't beaten all that much this season.

Who can beat Curlin? In my opinion, all 11 in this field are capable - even Smooth Air, who will be the longest shot on the board. It looks like he could inherit the lead by default and might even be in front at the quarter-pole. Go Between, who is 3-3-0 from six synthetic starts, is also scary. Colonel John seems to be peaking now and Eoin Harty has been quietly confident all week that the Travers winner is sitting on a big one. For all of Bobby Frankel's bellyaching about the Pro-Ride, Champs Elysees is also an intriguing horse. He showed he could get over the synthetics well when taking third in the Santa Anita Handicap in March and is usually near the money in grade I company.

All you Casino Drive fans (and there are a lot of you), there is no doubt he looks terrific and has taken to the track. But if he beats this field in his fourth career start, I will tip my hat and say I was dead wrong. He will not be in any of my wagers.

The Pick: I've had a feeling all week that this was going to be a European Breeders' Cup. I think they will win at least three or four races this weekend, and the Classic will be one of them. I've taken the hardest look at Raven's Pass and Duke of Marmalade. Both are having terrific campaigns against the world's best and are remarkably consistent. Raven's Pass enters off two big wins and seems to be in better form right now than Henrythenavigator, who has been his rival all year. The main reason I decided against him is because he will be trying 1 1/4 for the first time. My pick is Duke of Marmalade. All The Duke has done is win five of six this season - all in group I company - with two of the coming at 10 furlongs. Although seventh in the 1 1/2 Arc, he was right there after 10 furlongs and still finished less than four lengths back of the winner. He has great connections, has looked good all week, seems to be taking to the track and has accomplished more than any horse this season other than Curlin. And, he will be a nice price. I'll take my chances with Duke of Marmalade in a win bet and play him in exactas with Curlin, Raven's Pass and Go Between.

Let's see who everyone else likes. No matter who it is, have fun and best of luck to everyone. Enjoy Breeders' Cup 25!!

Curlin vs. Big Brown - Let the Countdown Begin

jshandler — Sun, 28 Sep 2008 19:33:00 GMT

Well, race fans...it looks like we're going to get our wish. After all the talking, hoping, and back-and-forth between Jess Jackson and Mike Iavarone, the showdown of the year is now very likely. Curlin vs. Big Brown. For all the marbles.

After Curlin's record-breaking victory in the Jockey Club Gold Cup Jess Jackson confirmed that Curlin would be shipping to California on Monday to prepare for his Breeders' Cup Classic defense - Pro-Ride and all. Give Jackson credit for changing his mind. Even though he is not excited about the artificial surface, he knows the best horse in the world belongs at the Breeders' Cup and it will be great for the sport. He also knew he had to be there to have any chance at Horse of the Year honors. Kudos Jess.

As we touched on before, this could wind up being the deepest Classic in history. In addition to Curlin and Big Brown, the probables are littered with superstars - Commentator, Well Armed, Go Between, Casino Drive, Duke of Marmalade, Henrythenavigator, New Approach, Pyro, Student Council and a few more. If even 75% of these horses go to post it will be one of the most anticipated races in recent memory. And a great thing for the industry.

There is plenty of time to analyze the Classic, but before we do that let's take a look back at a super weekend of racing. I came away very impressed with a number of horses. All those who continue to complain about the Pro-Ride, stop your negativety. This is going to a great Breeders' Cup.

First of all, Curlin's Gold Cup win was solid. He didn't have a perfect trip but still found enough to run down Wanderin Boy in the stretch - bad conditions and all. I thought Wanderin Boy would run a big race and he did. Curlin was just too much. And on to California he goes.

Goodwood - Well Armed showed me a lot. He held off three very good horses in the stretch and defeated a talented field. Give Aaron Gryder credit for a perfect stalking trip. That was probably the difference for Well Armed. Because of his closing kick and preference for the artificial surfaces he will have to be respected in the Classic.

Lady's Secret - What can you say about Zenyata other than she is spectactular? She only beat three but it was the way she did it. She went wide on the turn and went by like Hystericalady like she was standing still. In case you haven't noticed, Hystericalady is a pretty good mare. Nobody is supposed to go by her like that. I know her connections have said she will go to the Distaff, but wouldn't it be exciting if she ran against the boys in the Classic? That would make an already great race the most anticipated showdown in...well, maybe ever.

Flower Bowl - Speaking of defeating good females, how about Dynaforce repelling Mauralakana? She finally put it all together. It looked like Mauralakana was going to go right by Dyanforce around the turn but she was turned back emphatically. Dynaforce might be getting good at the right time. She will be a definite factor in the Filly & Mare Turf.

Vosburgh - Take nothing away from Black Seventeen. He ran a great race and surprised many. But I came away very impressed with Fabulous Strike in a losing effort. He ran a :21.75 quarter and :44.31 half in the slop while being pressed the whole way by J Be K and First Defence. Then he still has enough to fight Black Seventeen tooth and nail in the final furlong. It was a gritty effort. Despite all his physical problems and lack of seasoning over the past year, if he gets into the BC Sprint Fabulous Strike will be a huge factor.

Oak Leaf - This was perhaps the most impressive performance of the day. If you haven't watched the replay of what Stardom Bound did, do yourself a favor and take a look. She breaks slowly, is next to last in a full field of 12 after a half-mile and comes about 10-wide into the lane. That explosion she showed in the stretch is very rare, especially from a 2-year-old filly. She is special and will be the probable favorite in the BC Juvenile Fillies. Mike Smith called her his "baby Zenyata." Watch out.

Turf Classic - Grand Couturier took advantage of very slow splits, but still had to come wide into the stretch. When he did, it was a thing of beauty. He showed a powerful turn of foot to lock up his second consecutive grade I win. He proved he can win away from Saratoga. He is for real.

Clement Hirsch - No way I could leave off a horse that set a new world record, and that's exactly what Red Giant did. His time of 1:57.16 broke a record that had stood for more than 17 years. Talk about impressive. Out of Control wasn't half bad in second either. The BC Turf should be one heck of a race too.

I'd like to hear who you thought was impressive on Saturday.