Breeders Cup Chat : Indian Blessing

Curlin Retirement Leaves a Huge Void For 2009

jshandler — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 22:06:00 GMT

The announcement earlier this week that Curlin would not race in 2009 was not a surprise, but the reality of it made me come to one disappointing realization:

Other than Zenyatta, there really aren't many top-tier older horses I am looking forward to watching next year.

With Big Brown and Curlin now out of the mix, we now have the two most popular, and arguably, the two best North American-based dirt horses retired. And that's just the beginning of it.

Some of the notable older horses who have either already been retired or will likely be retired after 2008 are Student Council, Ginger Punch, Hystericalady, Benny the Bull, Midnight Lute, Red Rocks, Evening Attire, Zanjero, Perfect Drift, Lava Man, Red Giant, Tough Tiz's Sis, Zaftig, Alwajeeha, Sealy Hill, Lewis Michael, Dreaming of Anna, Mauralakana, Heatseeker, as well as European stars Zarkava, Raven's Pass and Henrythenavigator. There is also probably a decent chance that Commentator and/or Kip Deville will be gone after their final races this year.

Kind of depressing, isn't it?

At least we have the top 3-year-olds to look forward to. Well, some of them anyway. That's because two of the top Kentucky Derby hopefuls, Vineyard Haven and Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Midshipman will winter in Dubai for Sheikh Mohammed, as well as BC Juvenile Turf winner Donativum likely going to England for Princess Haya.

Again, thank our lucky stars for Zenyatta.

Before I paint too bleak of a picture, there are still some exciting horses that should return in 2009, most of them females - Ventura, Cocoa Beach, Music Note, Proud Spell, Forever Together and Indian Blessing (Baffert's long range goal for her is the Dubai World Cup Sprint) to name a few. And, of course, there is Stardom Bound, who should only get better as a 3-year-old.

As far as the males, 3-year-olds like Colonel John, Mambo in Seattle and Denis of Cork should improve, and sprinter Fatal Bullet looks like he'll be a force. Perhaps the one older horse I am looking forward to seeing more than any other is BC Dirt Mile winner Albertus Maximus, who is set up for a big 5-year-old campaign.

l should also point out that this year is not unlike any other. The reality of horse racing today is that this is time of year when horses retire. It's the nature of the sport and we have to accept it. It's time for the new stars to make their mark.

However, it doesn't take away from the fact that the departure of Curlin, Big Brown and many of our other favorites leaves a huge void for 2009.

Who Will Be the 3-Year-Old Filly Champion?

jshandler — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 19:28:00 GMT

Although we all have different opinions on it, I think we can all agree that we've beaten Horse of the Year debate to death. Let's move on to another topic; one that that I'm sure we also won't all agree on, but is an interesting debate nonetheless: 3-year-old female of the year.

This should be one of the closest Eclipse Award votes of the year, as both Proud Spell and Music Note have had terrific campaigns. Before I tell you which way I'm leaning, let's present each filly's résumé.

Proud Spell

*4-2-2 from eight starts, and really, her disqualification from second to third in the Mother Goose was a bad call, so in my book she should have three runner-ups.

*Won a pair of grade I events (Kentucky Oaks and Alabama) and a pair of grade II's (Fair Ground Oaks and Delaware Oaks).

*Earned $1.5 million this season

*Defeated Music Note in Alabama

Music Note

*4-1-1 from six starts

* Won three grade I races (Mother Goose, Coaching Club American Oaks and Gazelle). Her fourth win was in allowance company.

*Earned $833,000 this season

*Defeated Proud Spell in Mother Goose

* Third in Ladies Classic

It's easy to see that both had outstanding seasons. You can certainly make a case for either filly. But in my opinion, Proud Spell has the edge. Why?

First of all, Proud Spell had a tougher year. Even though Music Note has the extra grade I victory, Proud Spell tested graded stakes company all eight starts and never finished off the board. She had a more physically demanding campaign that began in February and lasted until September. That's eight grades stakes races in eight months. Pretty impressive. Music Note didn't even make her first graded stakes appearance until after Proud Spell won the Kentucky Oaks.

Proud Spell also knocked off Indian Blessing, who was undefeated at the time. That Fair Grounds Oaks victory is not to be taken lightly. Indian Blessing is probably the toughest horse that either Proud Spell or Music Note defeated all year. It was a very significant win, despite only being a grade II.

Although I'm not a believer that earnings should determine a champion, Proud Spell nearly doubled Music Note's earnings. In and of itself it's not a deciding factor, but just another way to make a case for Proud Spell.

Finally, Proud Spell won the Kentucky Oaks - the biggest race of the year for 3-year-old fillies. Just like the winner of the Derby has the edge in the boys' division, the Oaks is the tiebreaker for females.

Had Music Note won the Ladies Classic I don't think there's any doubt she would have been the champion. Had she finished second to Zenyatta, I would have has to think even harder about this vote. Fact is, she finished third and that is not good enough to jump ahead of Proud Spell.

In my opinion, when Proud Spell defeated Music Note by a head in the Alabama, she clinched her championship. What do you think?

Pre-Entries Announced, Let the Games Begin!

jshandler — Fri, 17 Oct 2008 07:50:00 GMT

Does it feel like Christmas morning to anyone?

Breeders' Cup pre-entry day is upon us and for your convenience, below you will find the complete list of all 14 races. Next Tuesday, the final fields with post positions will be released.

As always, there were a number of surprises. I was most looking forward to seeing which Europeans were going to make the trip across the pond. In total, 35 Euros are pre-entered. The Classic, which of course lost Big Brown earlier in the week, looks very solid. Multiple group I winners Henrythenavitagor and Raven's Pass both have first preference in the Classic, which makes the marquee race that much more interesting. In addition, turf specialist Champs Elysees was a surprise entrant in the big race.

The turf is loaded with international talent - Soldier of Fortune, Conduit and Eagle Mountain all spicing up what should be a terrific race. The Marathon, which I think is the most anticipated of the new races, is also infused with talented Europeans.

It was fun to see Indian Blessing enter the Sprint, although she does have first preference in the Filly and Mare Sprint. We'll see what Bob Baffert decides. Either way, the Sprint looks like a tremendous betting race. I was also excited to see Precious Kitten and Ventura both entered against the boys in the Mile, although Ventura seems to be pointing towards the Filly & Mare Sprint.

I will be blogging from Santa Anita each day beginning on Monday. I'll analyze and handicap four races each day, and give out selections for each race. Be sure to watch That Handicapping Show too. I'm looking forward to getting everyone's input and selections.

For now, I'm mainly interested in what your take is on the pre-entries. Anything that surprised you? Any disappointments? Let the games begin!!

Friday races

Filly & Mare Sprint

Dearest Trickski; Dream Rush; Indian Blessing; Indyanne; Intangaroo; La Tee; Lady Sprinter; Magnificience; Miraculous Miss; Psalm (IRE); Tiz Elemental; Tizzy's Tune; Ventura; Zaftig

Juvenile Fillies Turf

Beyond Our Reach (IRE); C Karma; Consequence; Dream Empress; Emmy Darling; Evita Argentina; Freedom Rings; Heart Shaped; Laragh; Maram; Oui Say Oui (IRE); Renda

Juvenile Fillies

Be Smart; C. S. Silk; Doremifasollatido; Dream Empress; Emmy Darling; Evita Argentina; Palacio de Amor; Persistently; Pursuit of Glory (IRE); Renda; Saucey Evening; Sky Diva; Stardom Bound; Van Lear

Filly & Mare Turf

Communique; Dynaforce; Folk Opera (IRE); Forever Together; Goldikova (IRE); Halfway To Heaven (IRE); Mauralakana (FR); Precious Kitten; Pure Clan; Sealy Hill; Vacare; Visit (GB); Wait a While

Ladies Classic

Bear Now; Carriage Trail; Cocoa Beach (CHI); Ginger Punch; Hystericalady; Music Note; Santa Teresita; Zenyatta

Saturday races

Marathon

Add Heat; Big Booster; Booyah; Casino Drive; Cedar Mountain (IRE); Church Service; Delightful Kiss; Fairbanks; Jonesboro; King of Rome (IRE); Muhannak (IRE); Sixties Icon (GB); Spring House; Zappa

Turf Sprint

California Flag; Diabolical; Fleeting Spirit (IRE); Get Funky; Heros Reward; Idiot Proof; Mr. Nightlinger; One Union; Only Answer (GB); Rebellion (GB); Rouse the Cat; Salute the Count; Tropic Storm; True to Tradition

Dirt Mile

Albertus Maximus; First Defence; Jonesboro; Lewis Michael; Lord Admiral; Mast Track; My Pal Charlie; Pyro; Rebellion (GB); Surf Cat; Two Step Salsa; Well Armed

Mile

Awesome Gem; Bold Chieftain; Daytona (IRE); Kip Deville; Precious Kitten; Raven's Pass; Shakis (IRE); Thorn Song; U S Ranger; Ventura; War Monger; Whatsthescript (IRE); Goldikova (IRE)

Juevenile

Azul Leon; Believe in Hope; Bushranger (IRE); Coronet of a Baron; Elusive Bluff; Midshipman; Mine That Bird; Munnings; Pioneerof the Nile; Silent Valor; Square Eddie; Street Hero; Terrain; West Side

Juvenile Turf

Bittel Road; City Style; Coronet of a Baron; Del Conte; Elusive Bluff; Grand Adventure; Mine That Bird; Ninth Client; Paddy The Pro (IRE); Relatively Ready; Skipadate; Westphalia (IRE)

Sprint

Black Seventeen; Cost of Freedom; Fabulous Strike; Fatal Bullet; First Defence; In Summation; Indian Blessing; J Be K; Lewis Michael; Midnight Lute; Sing Baby Sing; Street Boss; Tropic Storm

Turf

Better Talk Now; Conduit (IRE); Dancing Forever; Eagle Mountain (GB); Grand Couturier (GB); Out of Control (BRZ); Red Giant; Red Rock Canyon (IRE); Red Rocks (IRE); Soldier of Fortune (IRE); Spring House; Winchester

Classic

Casino Drive; Champs Elysees (GB); Colonel John; Curlin; Duke of Marmalade (IRE); Go Between; Henrythenavigator; Mast Track; Pyro; Raven's Pass; Smooth Air; Student Council; Tiago; Well Armed

Division Rankings With Two Weeks and Counting

jshandler — Sun, 12 Oct 2008 17:23:00 GMT

With less than two weeks to go until the World Championships, now is a good time to look at some of the top contenders in each division. Obviously, there will be plenty of surprises when the pre-entries come out Thursday, so this is just a rough draft, if you will.

Right now, the biggest question marks are which Europeans will come over, and what races will they enter. Because of the synthetic surface, some which may have pointed to the Mile or Turf in years past may try the Classic. We’ll have to wait and see.

Be sure to check in all next week when I’ll analyze each division in-depth and later in the week, give out selections.

Friday, Oct. 24 races

Filly and Mare Sprint: Shaping up to be a deep and talented group.

1. Indian Blessing – Champion gets slight edge based on class edge, but she is by no means a shoe in. Is there any possibility she tries the boys?

2. Indyanne – TCA was very impressive considering splits she ran and what she had left in final sixteenth.

3. Intangaroo – Won three G1’s this year and nobody seems to know.

Watch out for: Lady Sprinter – A perfect 8-for-8 on dirt in Argentina; Will make U.S. debut in BC.

Juvenile Filly Turf: Doesn’t look all that intriguing now that European star Rainbow View is being pointed towards the Juvenile Fillies. We’ll see how it shakes out.

1. Maram – Miss Grillo winner looks as good as any right now.

2. C Karma – Never been off the board in five starts. Natalma winner makes first start outside of Woodbine.

3. Freedom Rings – Runner-up in a pair of stakes events.

Juvenile Fillies: Addition of European star would add a lot of intrigue.

1. Stardom Bound – Debutante and Oak Leaf wins were awesome.

1A. Rainbow View – Perfect 4-for-4 in England. If she runs, it could turn into a great stretch duel.

3. Sky Diva – Looks like the best on East Coast.

Watch out for Be Smart: Smarty Jones filly was second to Dream Empress in Alcibiades but has a lot of talent.

Filly and Mare Turf: No overwhelming favorite at this point. Betting should be wide-open.

1. Mauralakana – Beaten last out but tough to argue with the year she’s had. Tries every time.

2. Wait a While – Form as a good as anyone right now.

3. Black Mamba – New Zealand-bred has never been off the board.

Watch out for: Ventura – Has kind of fallen off the radar since Woodbine Mile. I wouldn’t forget about her.

Ladies Classic: Might be the most anticipated race all weekend, even without Proud Spell. Should be special.

1. Zenyatta – Still perfect and gets the stay home. Could be Horse of the Year if everything falls right.

2. Music Note – Will have to beat older horses, but she has talent to do it.

3. Hystericalady – Was soundly beaten by Zenyata and synthetic is not her best surface, but I still like her here.

3A. Ginger Punch – Still the champ.

Watch out for: Carriage Trail – Stakes record in Spinster while drifting badly. Is she set up to bounce? Time will tell.

Saturday, Oct. 25 races

Marathon: A shame Evening Attire was retired. He would have added a lot to this event. With only a few preps for this division, we know little at this point. My guess is we’ll see a few Europeans enter, which should spice things up.

1. Delightful Kiss – I guess you have to give him the early edge based on Fall Championship and All American Stakes, both on artificial surfaces.

2. Big Booster – One of two probables for Mike Mitchell. Has won two in a row and is plenty fresh.

3. Dominican – Darrin Miller has not yet committed to sending last year’s Blue Grass winner.

Watch out for: Frost Giant – IEAH is now saying Suburban winner might be entered. One European name to keep in mind is Sixtees Icon.

Turf Sprint: Really won’t know too much until Thursday.

1. Mr. Nightlinger – One thing we do know is he’ll be the favorite. Enters on five-race win streak.

2. True to Tradition – Nearctic and Turf Monster winner in good form for Scott Lake.

3. Diabolical – Last year’s Vanderbilt winner ran a good one two weeks ago at Ascot.

Watch Out for: Salute the Count – Won at Saratoga last month and 8-year-old Dutrow trainee is always in the mix.

Dirt Mile: Looks like California horses have the edge here.

1. Well Armed – Seems that Eoin Harty is leaning towards Mile instead of Classic. Will be tough if that is the case.

2. Surf Cat – The old man always gives his best. Cutback could be to his liking.

3. Tale of Ekati – Ran a career-best 104 Beyer in Jerome. Could be the best spot for the 3-year-old.

Watch out for: Albertus Maximus – Improving colt set one-mile Del Mar track record this year.

Mile: Looks like some of the top Europeans are leaning towards the Classic. We’ll have to wait and see.

1. Kip Deville – Willing to excuse his Woodbine Mile. Last year’s winner has to get benefit of the doubt.

2. Goldikova – According to DRF, talented filly will try Mile instead of Filly and Mare Turf. She’s won consecutive group I mile events in France.

3. Thorn Song – Probably won’t have it as easy as he did at Keeneland.

Watch out for: Spirit One – If speedy Arlington Million winner enters, could ruin things for Thorn Song.

Juvenile: You have to assume that Vineyard Haven is not going. With Charitable Man out and Run Away and Hide a likely defection, things seem wide-open.

1. Square Eddie – Impressive Futurity winner on top right now by default.

2. Munnings – Second in Champagne, but likely to improve.

3. Street Hero – Norfolk winner never off the board in five starts.

Watch Out for: Midshipman – Second in Norfolk. Can’t discount a Baffert 2-year-old. Also, Pioneerof the Nile, who will likely move off the turf, could be an upset possibility for Bill Mott if he draws in.

Juvenile Turf: Another one where we won’t know too much until entry time.

1. Grand Adventure – I was impressed with gutsy Summer victory.

2. Bittel Road – Undefeated and looking good for Pletcher.

3. Jukebox Jury – Irish colt rallied from last in Royal Lodge.

Watch out for: Skipadate – Tough luck so far, but he has talent. Also, Duke of Homberg, a winner in France, could improve off fourth-place Pilgrim, which was his U.S. debut.

Sprint: Injuries to Benny the Bull, Abraaj and Bustin Stones have opened the division up.

1. Fabulous Strike – Is fast as lighting and has a ton of heart. Will he like the Pro-Ride?

2. Street Boss – Likely favorite has been tremendous this year.

3. Cost of Freedom – Ancient Title winner has won three straight.

Watch out for: Midnight Lute – Baffert says last year’s Sprint winner is ready to roll.

Turf: As always, Europeans will play a big part here although we still don’t know who is coming, let alone who will opt for the Mile. In the U.S., there isn’t a lot separating top few.

1. Grand Couturier – Couldn’t be coming into the race any better.

2. Red Rocks – The 2006 winner will come in with 3 ½ months rest.

3. Red Giant – Set North American turf record for 10 furlongs in Clement Hirsch. Can’t disregard.

Watch out for: All of the Europeans. Henrythenavigator and Raven’s Pass seem to be pointing towards Classic, but there is still Soldier of Fortune and Eagle Mountain. Also, I haven’t heard about Archipenko yet. Duke of Marmalade is definitely coming, but will it be for the Classic or Turf?

Classic: Full picture won’t be complete until we know for sure about Curlin, and which Europeans will enter.

1. Curlin – Will have another work on Pro-Ride Monday. You would think connections should be able to tell us by then.

2. Big Brown – Continues to work on grass. Looking forward to seeing him at Santa Anita.

3. Go Between – Might be the best of the West.

Watch out for: Colonel John, Casino Drive, Student Council and at the risk of being repetitive, any European.