Breeders Cup Chat : Jess Jackson

The Woodward is Fine, But the Travers Was What We Wanted

jshandler — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 17:21:00 GMT

Rachel Alexandra is blazing a path that no other 3-year-old filly has in modern history. She has already beaten her male peers in the Preakness and Haskell, and will now try to defeat older males in the Woodward. She is an amazing racehorse and a blessing for Thoroughbred racing during a tough time.

So why is there part of me that feels disappointed she will go to the Woodward and not the Travers?

When Steve Asmussen made the announcement on Monday, I was not the least bit surprised. I've said for weeks that this would be her next spot. When it (finally) came though, I felt let down.

The reemergence of Quality Road has given the Mid-Summer Derby a shot in the arm. I don't think there is a person who likes this sport that did not want to see Rachel vs. Quality Road, likely the two best 3-year-olds in the country right now. Throw in a rematch against Derby winner Mine That Bird (hopefully) and Belmont winner Summer Bird, and improving colts Warrior's Reward and Hold Me Back, and it would have been a dream race--maybe the race of the year. (I would have mentioned Charitable Man here, but Kiaran McLaughlin had already made it clear that he would not send him to the Travers if Rachel was going.)

Jackson is not wrong for sending Rachel to the Woodward. It's a great race in its own right and if she were to win, she would add to her continuing legacy of greatness by becoming the first filly to do so. As an owner, it also would not have been in Jackson's best interest to run Rachel and Kensei in the same race. Just doesn't make sense.

From these two perspectives, you cannot blame Jackson.

However, the fact is, the Woodward is an easier spot--even against older horses--and it won't carry as much public appeal as the Travers would. Had Quality Road, Summer Bird and (hopefully) Mine That Bird not been in the race, I might feel differently. But it seems they will be there, and it's disappointing the three Classic winners and Quality Road won't have their showdown in the Mid-Summer Derby.

I saw the probable field for the Woodward. It's OK. Bullsbay and Macho Again. Asiatic Boy is probable. They are nice horses. But does that get your juices flowing like the Travers would? C'mon, be honest.

My feeling is that Jackson did not want to run Rachel at 1 1/4 miles. I think he would rather keep her in her comfort zone at 1 1/8 and do so against a pretty average field. I also think Jackson also had dollar signs in his head with Kensei possibly winning the Travers, a race that would make his stallion career. Just my opinion.

Again, Jackson doesn't look bad for sending Rachel to the Woodward. He is still taking an unconventional path. The race will be fun.

Just do me a favor and save all the "great sportsman" stuff. The Travers was the spot we all wanted. There would have been other opportunities for Rachel to face older horses. In the end, Jackson chose Kensei's potential stud value over a race the whole sport wanted to see.

A Superstar, a Star in the Making, and a Star Losing His Light

jshandler — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 15:56:00 GMT

Breathtaking. Sensational. Poetry in motion.

New superlatives are becoming tough to find when describing superstar filly Rachel Alexandra. Her six-length romp in the Haskell against an overmatched group of 3-year-old colts that included the Belmont Stakes winner, Arkansas Derby winner and a talented graded stakes winning sprinter was nothing short of phenomenal.

Everything about it was awesome - the splits she ran, the ease in which she did it, and the final time of 1:47.21, which just missed Spend a Buck's track record. And it came on a sloppy track while being forced wide. Three-year-old fillies are just not supposed to be able to do these things.

What does it all mean? Well for one, she most likely locked up Horse of the Year honors, despite a full five months remaining in the season and not going to the Breeders' Cup, according to her owner Jess Jackson. It also means Rachel is well on her way to establishing herself as the greatest American 3-year-old filly in modern history. And if she wins the Travers and/or defeats older horses - and there is no reason to think she can't do both -- we might have to start talking about one of the greatest 3-year-old seasons by any horse, male or female, in a long time.

We have plenty of time to debate Rachel's place in history. That can come later. For now, we should all just enjoy what we are seeing, and look forward to what else she has in store for us. Folks, she is getting better. And the best part is, barring injury, we get to see her for at least 17 more months.

Nearly lost in Rachel's Haskell romp was the tremendous weekend it capped for trainer Steve Asmussen, who swept the major 3-year-old stakes by sending out Soul Warrior to a 23-1 upset in the West Virginia Derby and Kensei to an impressive score in the Jim Dandy. The latter, who happens to also be co-owned by Jess Jackson, is a star in the making.

Kensei has now notched consecutive grade II scores around two turns, and both of them have been eye-catching. The son of Mr. Greeley beat a solid field that included Warrior's Reward, Charitable Man and Convocation, with ease. He has all the looks of a horse who is rapidly improving, and at this point, with all the injuries to the nation's top 3-year-olds, Asmussen and Jackson might just have the second best sophomore in the country. Time will tell. Talk about an embarrassment of riches. I'm looking forward to seeing more from this colt, although, he will probably never meet Rachel.

Finally, there is Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird, who seems to be a star losing his light. Mine That Bird has now lost three straight races since winning the roses, and quite honestly, I'm getting a little tired of people making excuses for him.

First, it was, "He would have beat Rachel in the Preakness if the race was just a few yards longer." In the Belmont, people blamed Calvin Borel for a premature move. Now, Mike Smith and trainer Chip Woolley are saying Smith's ride and the 11-pound weight disparity cost him the West Virginia Derby.

The fact is, Mine That Bird is a good horse, not a great horse. He won the Derby and that should be respected, but he had every chance to win all three of those following races and came up short. This past weekend, he had the entire stretch to outduel a 23-1 allowance winner, and catch a game Big Drama, who set ambitious fractions. He could not.

Mine That Bird is a horse who needs a beneficial pace scenario, and most importantly, a perfectly-time move to win graded stakes races. He is one-dimensional. Let's face facts. He is good, hard-trying horse. Is he capable of winning another big race this season? Absolutely. But enough with the excuses.

One Man's Prediction on Zenyatta's 'Mysterious' Path

jshandler — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 16:31:00 GMT

During the early stages of my interview with Jerry Moss earlier this week, two things became apparent to me right from the start: I wasn't going to get anything significant out of him regarding Zenyatta's future, and there is very little chance that she will ever face Rachel Alexandra.

The latter did not surprise me one bit. I stated last month that we should all begin to accept the fact that the showdown will never happen. The owners of each horse have two different agendas: Moss the Breeders' Cup, Jess Jackson locking up Horse of the Year by the end of the summer by beating males once (or twice) more. From where I stand, the showdown it ain't happening. We should all move on.

I was a little disappointed, however, that Moss would not budge on his stance of playing it close to the vest regarding her plans for the rest of the season. And believe me, I tried several times and in several different ways to get something out of him. During the course of our interview, Moss must have said, "I don't mean to be mysterious, but we're taking it one race at a time," about five times. He just wouldn't budge. Yes I was disappointed, but I also respected his position.

In the latter part of our conversation I finally got him to admit that they were going to do "something different" with her. That's about all I got. But by reading between the lines, here is my speculation on what they will do with her in her final four starts:

As we all know, she will race next in the Aug. 9 Clement Hirsch. There is also a very good chance that she will also go in the Oct. 10 Lady's Secret as a prep for the Breeders' Cup. Whether it will be the Breeders' Cup Classic or Ladies Classic, we don't know yet. Back to that in a moment.

Near the end of the interview, Moss said the two months between the Clement Hirsch and the Lady's Secret leaves room for another race. This is where they will likely do "something different" with her. What will it be? Well, it probably won't be out of California. Moss reiterated several times that they would prefer not to ship her out of state. When I mentioned the Oct. 3 Beldame at Belmont Park, a race that also might be enticing for Jackson, Moss said no. I think she is staying in California. But where?

In looking at the racing calendar, the options in early September are pretty slim in Cali. If they are going to do "something different" with her, to me the most probable option is the $1 million Pacific Classic (gr. I) at Del Mar. This makes sense because it a) give her nearly five weeks until the Lady's Secret and b) it lets her face males for the first time.

In my theory, Zenyatta gets to take on the boys for a huge purse on a track she has already won over, and it satisfies the "something different" Moss is referring to. Then, they aren't forced to run her against what will likely be a very tough field in the Breeders' Cup Classic. My gut feeling is that they want to let her run in the Ladies Classic. This will likely be the final race of her career and there is a much better chance she goes out a winner in that race, which is at a more suitable distance and won't be nearly as tough to win.

Pacific Classic, Lady's Secret and Ladies Classic. That's my prediction for Zenyatta. If I am right, and she wins all of them, I still don't feel it's enough for Horse of the Year. But I'm not sure that is the main goal for Moss at this point anyway. I think he would just like to enjoy her final four races and let the chips fall where they may.

Horse of the Year - Rachel Isn't a Lock Yet

jshandler — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 18:58:00 GMT

It doesn't matter what month it is on the calendar, Horse of the Year debate is always fun. And since some of you brought it up on the previous blog, let's examine it a little deeper.

Before we do, let me preface this by saying what we are doing here is pure speculation. There are a ton of ‘what ifs' in these scenarios and we are assuming many things. We won't solve anything here (do we ever?), but since the goal of this blog is to have healthy debate, let's take a stab at this thing.

This is what we know: Rachel Alexandra will not be going to the Breeders' Cup because it is on "plastic," according to her owner Jess Jackson. Ok, fine Jess. By choosing not to go to California, however, you are leaving the door open for someone else to steal Horse of the Year. How, you ask? Well, let me start the speculation.

For argument sake, let's assume Rachel wins the Haskell and then Jackson sends her to the Alabama, where she dominates again. Are those two wins enough to lock up the award for her? Not in my opinion. If he decides to bypass the Travers, in my opinion, Rachel may have to do something else to hold off some of the other candidates I will mention in a moment.

What else does Rachel have to do in the aforementioned scenario? Well, she may have to beat older horses, something she has not done yet. Though she has been simply dominating every time out, the 3-year-old class, both fillies and males, isn't exactly the strongest group we've ever seen. If Rachel isn't going to the BC, she may need to win a race against older horses, perhaps the Oct. 3 Beldame at Belmont.

All this is a moot point, in my opinion, if Jackson sends her to the Travers and she wins. That would lock things up for her, no matter what else happens. Kentucky Oaks, Preakness, Mother Goose, Haskell and Travers wins. Game over. However, my gut tells me he does not want to run her 1 1/4 against males at Saratoga. We shall see.

So who could beat her out if she doesn't win the Travers or beat older horses? Well, Einstein for one. The 7-year-old already has claimed the Santa Anita Handicap and Woodford Reserve Turf Classic. If he should also win the Aug. 8 Arlington Million that would be his third grade I win of the year. If he should then go to the BC Classic, wouldn't he have to be considered for HOY if he wins? Absolutely. That would be one impressive résumé. He will have won a pair of $1 million races as well as a $5 million race - all against older horses. Rachel would be by no means a lock if she doesn't do one of the two things I mentioned earlier.

What about Gio Ponti? He has rattled off three straight GI wins so far. What if he should beat Einstein in the Arlington Million, maybe win another in the fall, and then head into either the BC Turf or BC Classic having accomplished all of that? Are you going to tell me he wouldn't have a chance at HOY with five or six grade I wins - all against large fields? Granted, they will all have been on turf (assuming he doesn't go to the Classic), but still...

Finally, there is Zenyatta. Her schedule has been far from challenging so far, but she still has a shot. Assuming she takes the same path as last year, she would collect wins in the Clement Hirsch next month, the Lady's Secret in September, and then be set up for a run in the BC Classic. If she defeats males in the Classic that would be five wins this season - four in grade I - and it would make her a perfect 14-for-14 in her career. You going to tell me a bunch of people won't vote for her if she ends her career by beating the best males in the Classic?

So all of you people who think Rachel has things locked up in July, you'd better think again. What she has done thus far has been sensational, but there are other horses having terrific seasons as well. And when you don't show up for the World Championships, you are leaving the door wide open for someone to steal it.

Your thoughts?

Clark Would Be Perfect Way For Curlin to Go Out

jshandler — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 17:00:00 GMT

Now that the Breeders' Cup is in our rearview mirror and it feels as though racing comes to a screeching halt for the rest of season, there is one topic that seems to be on everyone's mind: Horse of the Year.

Curlin vs. Zenyatta. Who will it be?

It's been less than a week since the Breeders' Cup ended and I've already been asked the same question countless times: Who are you going to vote for? Although my standard response has been, "I'm not sure yet," if I'm honest with myself I will admit that I'm leaning towards Zenyatta.

I'm not one of those traditionalists who feels a filly needs to beat the colts to earn Horse of the Year honors. I think what Zenyatta has done is enough to merit strong consideration for the award. Her undefeated season and scintillating Ladies Classic victory over a quality field makes her worthy of the honors.

I will not go into detailed reasons why either Curlin or Zenyatta deserve the award; my colleague Steve Haskin already did a very good job of summing that up. A strong case can be made for either; they were both sensational in 2008. I do respectfully disagree with Steve on the fact that Big Brown deserves to be in the mix. I thought his second half campaign was a bit of a joke, between bypassing Saratoga and having a glorified allowance race written for him. But I digress...

The one thing I will say for sure is this: Right now, I am leaning towards Zenyatta, but I can still be swayed. How? If Curlin runs in the Nov. 26 Clark Handicap and beats Commentator. In my mind, that would push Curlin over the top.

Don't get me wrong. I can see why Jess Jackson would not want to run Curlin in the Clark and I would not penalize him if he chose not to. It's already been a long campaign for him and I have no idea how Curlin came out of the Breeders' Cup. It could very well be that he needs more rest. Jackson did the commendable thing by bringing Curlin to California and he deserves a lot of credit already.

All that being admitted, if Curlin won the Clark it would be the perfect exclamation point. As great as he has been these last two years, I would have to think the Classic loss leaves a bit of a sour taste in Jackson's mouth. If that was indeed his final race, it can't be the way he wants his career to end. A victory in the Clark, on his home track, would be such a fitting way to go out. And to beat a quality horse like Commentator, who has run the highest speed numbers of any horse all year, would quiet anyone who said Curlin hasn't beaten much this year.

It's probably a longshot at this point, but a victory in the Clark would be enough to sway this voter.

No More Challenges Jess, Just Show Up

jshandler — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 17:28:00 GMT

Okay, after the peculiar back-and-forth repartee between Jess Jackson and Mike Iavarone that was carried out by the media on Wednesday, I am officially annoyed with the Big Brown vs. Curlin situation.

And after all the bickering that has taken place, it finally appears that the two most popular horses in America will never meet.

It is a very sad situation for one simple reason: In the end, not only does the industry lose, but so do the fans. Had the two camps come to terms and had it been marketed correctly, this is a match-up that would have done wonders for a sport that could certainly use a boost in popularity. It could have been huge.

Here is my official take on the situation:

Jess Jackson should stop issuing challenges and meet Big Brown in The Breeders' Cup Classic.

As many of you know I have been critical of Big Brown's connections in the past, but in this case I cannot fault them. The Woodward and the Jockey Club Gold Cup, while certainly both races that seem attractive on paper, would not be the right fit for Big Brown.

The Haskell took a lot out of Big Brown, which both Rick Dutrow and Iavarone have already admitted, and they feel coming back in four weeks for the Woodward would be too soon. Remember, he went through a grueling Triple Crown stretch and he has chronically bad feet. They know their horse better than we do. We have to give them the benefit of the doubt on that one.

The Gold Cup would give him eight weeks of rest, but it would also be less than a month until the Classic, which doesn't make sense either. Ideally, they want more time than that. Again, you can't fault them.

I am not sure what spot they will pick for Big Brown. It is likely to be much softer than either of the aforementioned races and on the surface it will seem like they are ducking Curlin. But if Iavarone wants a turf prep for his horse, that is his right. Admittedly, it does make more sense to run on turf as a prep for a synthetic race, as opposed to dirt. Remember, the goal all along has been the Classic. They have been upfront about that from Day 1.

Bottom line: Horse of the Year championships in this day and age are decided in the Breeders' Cup Classic. Having the race on a synthetic surface is not ideal for everyone, especially since Santa Anita's will be brand new, but it is what it is. It would be the first race on the surface for both horses, so neither would have an advantage. Synthetics are here to stay and Jackson needs to realize this and embrace it.

Somehow, the word "synthetic" has become a four-letter word to many. I realize it makes handicapping more challenging and last year's slow-playing Del Mar surface turned off some. Constantly hearing the gripes of some of the top trainers who don't care for it hasn't helped either. But the reason it was created in the first place is because it is safer for horses, and early research has shown that it does reduce catastrophic injuries. I'm tired of all the complaining about synthetics. Deal with it. It's not going away.

Curlin won last year's Classic in the muddy soup at Monmouth. I'd like to ask Jackson if he thinks that surface was any safer for his horse than Santa Anita's Pro-Ride will be. The George Washington tragedy was a pretty good indication that it wasn't.

The reality is, they are spending millions to redo Santa Anita's ailing surface and will have plenty of time to test the track at the beginning of the meet. Does anyone really believe they would risk having racing's biggest day on a track that is not safe for horses? Not a chance.

If Jackson plans it right, Curlin will have plenty of time to train over the new surface. All the horses will, including Henrythenavigator, who some label as the world's best horse and is being pointed towards the Classic. Aidan O'Brien, the world's best trainer, doesn't seem bothered by the surface.

I don't criticize Jackson for trying to put the Curlin-Big Brown match-up together in New York. I genuinely believe he would like to be able to share it with the fans. He seems like a good sportsman, has the best interest of the industry at heart and is in touch with what people want. On the flip side, he needs to realize that the Breeders' Cup is the international showcase. It is racing's biggest stage and has been for a quarter of a century. It is the most logical place for the two stars to meet.

The surface will be safe. Get over your aversion to synthetics and show up in California. Everyone wants to see it.

Curlin vs. Big Brown in BC Turf May Be the Only Way They Meet

jshandler — Wed, 06 Aug 2008 01:01:00 GMT

Curlin vs. Big Brown: Every racing fan in the nation wants to see it. It's a match-up that would be great for the sport and would give the industry a huge shot in the arm.

The only problem is, with every passing day the chances of it happening seem to grow slimmer.

From where I sit, the only realistic way it happens is Oct. 25 in the Breeders' Cup Turf. That's right, the Turf, not the Classic.

Based on the comments of Jess Jackson and Mike Iavarone over the past two days, here's what we know:

Curlin will go in the Woodward on Aug. 30. Most of us are in agreement that this is a logical place for Big Brown to meet Curlin, as it gives him four weeks rest and it's at Saratoga, the best meet in the world. The only problem is, Iavarone said he is looking for a turf race for Big Brown, some time in mid-September. I have yet to hear his reasoning for this, but can only assume it is to prep him for a run on the synthetic at Santa Anita and possibly to ease his troubled feet.

If Big Brown goes in a turf race in mid-September that takes out the possibility of the two meeting in Curlin's next tilt, which based on Jackson's comments today, could be the Jockey Club Gold Cup on Sept. 27. He also gave a few other possibilities, including the Sept. 20 Mass Cap, but either way, he won't be meeting Big Brown in September. The timing just isn't right.

If you heard Jackson speak today, which I did, you will know that the possibility of him running Curlin on the synthetic Pro-Ride at Santa Anita is very slim. Here is a little bit of what he said:

"I'd like to go (to the Classic). I'm a native Californian. But it's on an untested surface. It causes great concern. Why run a horse like Curlin that is on a surface that's undefined? We've won the Classic - been there, done that. (If we did go), I would love to have a prep race on the exact surface, but it doesn't appear we will be able to. We would probably only be able to exercise on it a few times."

He is scared to death to race Curlin on that surface. He made that very clear in his lengthy media conference. Could he have a change of heart? Sure, anything is possible. But don't count on it.

Where does all this leave us? The only logical place is the Breeders Cup Turf. For it to happen, Big Brown will need to win his mid-September race and look good doing it. That would give Iavarone all the confidence he needs to stick Big Brown in the BC Turf, for what would be his final race. It would also be more acceptable to Jackson, who was clear today when he said Curlin could very easily go back to racing on turf, despite his losing effort in the Man o' War.

It would also be very attractive to both because of the historical ramifications. Can you imagine if the Derby and Preakness winner won his his final career race in the BC Turf and beat the reigning Horse of the Year doing it?Or, if the 2007 BC Classic winner ended his career by winning the 2008 BC Turf, defeating the probable 3-year-old champion doing it? Both would be unprecidented and amazing accomplishments.

Other than Iavarone having a change of heart and deciding to run Big Brown in the Woodward, I can see no other way that these two meet. And if that is the case, I think I speak for all of us when I say, what a shame that would be.