Breeders Cup Chat : Kip Deville

Saturday Picks, Part 1

jshandler — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 20:21:00 GMT

Marathon

Earlier in the week I was leaning towards Delightful Kiss, who enters in good form and has consecutive grade III wins over synthetic surfaces. His bullet work at Golden Gate Oct. 12 confirms the 4-year-old gelding is as good as he has ever been for Pete Anderson.

As the week has gone on, however, I am feeling the Euros more, especially Muhannak and Sixtees Icon. Muhannak has not only won four in a row, but has earned consecutive wins on the Polytrack in Europe. The Chester House gelding has been a consistent stakes winner, has won at a 1 1/2 miles and is 4-1-2 on synthetics in his career. Somehow, the Irish-bred is a nice 20-1 overlay. Sixtees Icon, the 2-1 morning-line favorite, has won three consecutive group stakes and four of six this season. The group I winner and former Arc entrant is the class of the field and deserves a lot of attention despite having never started on synthetic.

The Pick: Mile and a half dirt races are rare in the United States. Since this is the inaugural running of this event, I'm going to put most of my money on the aforementioned Euros, who have much more experience winning at this distance. I'll box Muhannak, Sixtees Icon and Delightful Kiss in an exacta, and on top, I'll take Sixtees Icon, who is much more accomplished than any of these. I should be able to get 2-1 or more on the 5-year-old.

Turf Sprint

This is as wide-open an event as there is all weekend. Get Funky being the 9-2 morning-line favorite is conformation of that. Mr. Nightlinger, the 6-1 second choice, could go off as the favorite when all is said and done. The Indian Charlie colt has won five in a row with consistent speed figures to go along with each victory. The 14 post should actually be a benefit since they will be coming out of the downhill shoot. He must be respected.

Idiot Proof is also worthy of consideration. Second to Midnight Lute in last year's dirt sprint, he will be making just the second turf start of his career. But he was beaten only a length by Get Funky and could improve off that. Gomez helps too.

True to Tradition, One Union and Fleeting Spirit, the only filly in the race, are also interesting. Fleeting Spirit, a 3-year-old, is a multiple group winner who might appreciate 6 1/2 furlongs for the first time in her career.

The Pick: Again, this is a tough race to handicap; a lot of variables and things to consider. Look for overlays. Earlier in the week I had Mr. Nightlinger in my top spot. Now, I'm leaning towards Idiot Proof and True to Tradition. I'll box those two in an exacta and use True to Tradition as my win bet. The Scott Lake trainee will be a big price despite being very consistent this season. He should be on or near the lead.

Dirt Mile

Well Armed is going to be a handful. His form, win over the Pro-Ride, and early speed all make him tough to beat. I'm not sure I'm going to try to do it. Right now, 3-1 is looking very appetizing for a horse who some felt would have had a good chance in the Classic. He's looked great all week.

The Pick: Albertus Maximus, Surf Cat and Lewis Michael are the most logical to take down the favorite. Albertus Maximus might have more upside than anyone here and could improve off the Goodwood, where he was less than two back of Well Armed. He's had nice works too. Let's go with a Well Armed/Albertus Maximus exacta box, with Well Armed getting the slight edge for the win bet if he holds at 3-1.

Mile

Some Breeders' Cup races it makes sense to look for prices and overlays. In this one, however, look no further than the three morning-line choices - Goldikova, Whatsthescript and Kip Deville. Between them you have an exceptionally talented filly who has won three consecutive group stakes, a California-based colt entering in great form, and the defending champ. I cannot see anyone else contending.

The Pick: Trying to separate the top three is challenging. Goldikova has run two good races against Arc winner Zarkava and has won five of seven at this distance. On paper, she is the one to beat. But Whatsthescript also has a lot in his favor - huge speed figure last out, 4-for-5 at the distance and 2-for-3 on Santa Anita grass. The John Sadler and Garrett Gomez connection doesn't hurt either, which is why I'm going to take Whatsthescript in a slight upset over Goldikova and Kip Deville.

Juvenile

With some of the better 2-year-olds not making it to the race, mostly everyone has a decent chance here. Todd Pletcher sends out the favorite, Munnings, but also has a second colt to consider - Silent Valor. Despite being 15-1 on the morning-line, Silent Valor has put up very comparable speed figures and his second test at routing could see an improvement. Edgar Prado getting the mount doesn't hurt either.

Others I took a long look at were Azul Leon, Square Eddie and Midshipman, but it is Bushranger who I have really started to like as the week has worn on. The son of Danetime was installed as the fourth choice despite winning consecutive group I's in Europe. He has the perfect stalking style and gets one of the world's premier riders. He reminds some of 2001 juvenile champion Johannesburg, who came into this race in similar fashion. The question marks? Routing for the first time and moving off the turf.

The Pick: Silent Valor and Bushranger are my top two. After leaning towards Silent Valor earlier in the week, I'll likely use Bushranger as my win bet, but will play both in an exacta. Azul Leon will be in my trifecta plays as a big longshot.

** My selections for the final four Saturday races, including the Classic, will follow tomorrow.

Can Kip Deville Be Beaten?

jshandler — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 18:06:00 GMT

Every racing fan has their favorite and most memorable moments. Last year, for me, it was the Woodbine Mile.

Who can forget the breathtaking rail move by Shakespeare, who came from eighth and 7 1/2 lengths back at the quarter-pole to nail Kip Deville in the final yards? It was truly one of the best late moves I have seen by a 6-year-old, and to do it after coming back from serious injury made it all the more remarkable. If you would like to see it again, here it is. I was sorry to see Shakespeare retire. When healthy, he was a monster.

The field isn't as large and wide-open for this year's Mile, and it is certainly going to be tough to beat Kip Deville. He is the top turf miler in North America, hands down. And he will have only seven rivals, with his main competition seemingly coming from a filly, Ventura. He is sure to be odds-on and won't offer much in the way of value. Is it worth playing against him?

Aside from Ventura, the other six challengers are all Woodbine locals. On paper, there is nothing in here that blows you away. Just Rushing seems to be the most logical one to challenge, as the 7-year-old gelding hasn't been out of the money in his last nine. But he has only one win to show for it, that coming last out in the grade II Play the King. He also never won at a mile, and his trainer, Sid Attard, admitted coming back in only two weeks will be very difficult.

Also coming out of the Play the King are runner-up Wollemi Pine and fourth-place Mulmur. Wollemi Pine, trained by Ian Black, is a closer who was running in allowance company up until two months ago. He'll need a brisk pace. Mulmur rallied well in the Play the King and won the Ontario Jockey Club two starts back. He comes from winning connections, so I give him an outside chance.

Palladio hasn't won in nearly 14 months.

Other than Ventura, who I will cover shortly, I give Black's other entry, Rahy's Attorney, the best chance for an upset. This 4-year-old gelding doesn't always win but is consistently around the money. He is 6-2-4 from 16 starts and more importantly, is 2-for-2 going a mile and has won five of eight starts on the Woodbine turf. Not bad. He has a graded stakes to his credit this year when taking the Connaught Cup while going 12 furlongs. He cuts back from the 1 1/4 Nijinsky last out, where he finished fourth but was beaten only three lengths. All three of the horses that beat him are entered in the grade I Northern Dancer, which is right before the Mile.

Ventura is a filly on the rise. She is a nose away from winning two in a row in graded action, both against very good company. How will she do against the boys? Well, if her times are any indication, she is right where she belongs. In fact, her final time of 1:32.75 in the grade I Just a Game in June was better than any mile time Kip Deville has ever run. This seems like her perfect distance and the spacing between races couldn't be any better. Throw in Garrett Gomez, who was aboard Shakespeare last year, and trainer Bobby Frankel, who has two Mile victories to his credit, and she should be right there.

Kip Deville has been lightly-raced by Rick Dutrow Jr in 2008. He has only two starts to his credit this season, as opposed to five this same time last year. Dutrow says he doesn't need any more than this, and judging by his Maker's Mark Mile, which came off a nearly six-month layoff, he is probably right. If Kip runs his race and is on the top of his game, he is clearly the best horse here. He is a three-time grade I winner and has beaten much tougher than this.

The Pick: It wouldn't shock me if (4) Kip Deville lost this race, but I don't think it is very likely. The problem is, he'll be odds-on. (8) Ventura is certainly capable here, but she won't offer great value either (likely to be 7-2 or 3-1). I'm going to play $10 across the board on (2) Rahy's Attorney, who is 12-1 on the morning-line, and also use him in a $1 trifecta key that will read like this: 2,4,8/2,4,8/all. That's a $36 ticket.

For the record, I like a Seaside Retreat/Quijano exacta in the Northern Dancer and The Niagara Queen to pull an upset in the Canadian Stakes. If you watched That Handicapping Show this week, you'll know I went with Jade's Revenge in the Turfway Park Fall Championship in the other Breeders' Cup Challenge race.

Good luck!!

Division Leaders

jshandler — Tue, 12 Aug 2008 21:26:00 GMT

We're now a little more than five weeks into the Breeders' Cup season and the divisions are beginning to take shape. The continuing story thus far is how the male division seemingly gets more ordinary every day while the female division continues to get more exciting. Unless this Big Brown-Curlin thing actually happens, there is no doubt the Ladies Classic will be much more interesting come late October. I forget, what day is the Ladies Classic being run? Never mind.

Anyway, with about two more months of Breeders' Challenge events left to go, I thought it would be a good idea to take a look at a few of the divisions. Let's do our best to rank the top 3 American-based horses in each one. Here goes:

Classic

1. Curlin - You still have to give him the edge even though we have no idea if Jess Jackson will send him to Santa Anita.

2. Big Brown - Looking forward to seeing the spot they pick for him. Something tells me it will be the Pennsylvania Derby.

3. Commentator - He ran the year's top Beyer (119) so you have to respect him. Looks like he'll go to the Mass Cap next month and point towards the Classic. But can he get 1 1/4 miles?

Don't forget about: Henrythenavigator - He's won four consecutive group I races and some say he is the best horse in the world. Aidan O'Brian says he will point towards this race, which should spice things up.

Ladies Classic

1. Ginger Punch - She's the champ. Until someone proves otherwise, I'm ranking her above Zenyatta.

2 . Zenyatta - Undefeated and getting better. Has a huge advantage because of the synthetics.

3. Music Note - Looking forward to this weekend's Alabama. She might be the best of them all.

Don't forget about: Hystericalady. She lost by a nose in the '07 Distaff and is even better this year.

Tough for me to leave out Proud Spell and Little Belle, but what can you do?

Turf

1. Red Rocks - Won the best U.S. turf race this year.

2. Gio Ponti - Hasn't faced grade I company yet, but a star in the making.

3. Einstein - Had a poor start in the Million, but the loss was more than just that.

Don't forget about: Any European. The Americans will have their hands full against all of them. All three that took money in Arlington Million might be back for BC.

Filly & Mare Turf

1. Mauralakana - Gotta love her. She just knows how to get it done.

2. Forever Together - Diana was no fluke.

3. Black Mamba - Not BC nominated, but owners will probably fork over the cash.

Don't forget about: J'ray: She narrowly lost to Mauralakana twice.

Sprint

1. Benny the Bull: All he does is win. The way he powers down the stretch is breathtaking.

2. J Be K - Has never lost at less than a mile.

3. Street Boss - That's five in a row for the synthetic specialist.

Don't forget about: Kodiak Kowboy: Highly-touted as a 2-year-old, he might be coming into his own.

Mile

1. Kip Deville: Pure miler is lightly-raced this year, but will be primed and ready for Santa Anita.

2. Daytona -Tired in American Handicap. A mile might be his best distance.

3. Monzante - Just beginning to hit his best stride.

Don't forget about: Red Giant: Very impressive off a 10-month layoff. Not sure what his best distance is, but Pletcher will figure it out.

More division rankings to come later...