Breeders Cup Chat : Mauralakana

More Close Calls With Eclipse Awards

jshandler — Wed, 17 Dec 2008 19:47:00 GMT

The voting for the 2008 Eclipse Awards began last week and writers have until Jan. 5^th to cast their ballots. The awards will be presented in Miami on Jan. 26^th.

During the past few days I have completed my homework and made up my mind on nearly all of the divisions. As we have chatted about previously, Horse of the Year, Sprint and 3-year-old Filly are all highly debatable, and will likely be very close. Other than those three, there are a few others that were difficult decisions. I'll list them below and look forward to your thoughts on each one.

Older Turf Male

This one was especially difficult, as to me, there was no real standout. Horses that I seriously considered were Conduit, Kip Deville, Einstein and Grand Couturier.

Conduit will get a lot of votes based on his sensational Breeders' Cup win, especially in light of runner-up Eagle Mountain's win in Hong Kong last weekend. But I have a difficulty voting for a horse that made just one start in the U.S. It's just a rule I have. The BC and his two group stakes wins in England probably makes him the favorite, but he didn't get my vote. I also don't think Kip Deville did enough. Had he put forth a good showing in Hong Kong maybe I would have changed my mind.

It came down to Einstein and Grand Couturier. On turf, Einstein was 3-2-0 from six starts, with his wins coming in an optional claimer, the grade I Gulfstream Turf and grade I Turf Classic at Churchill. He had a terrific season and his win on the dirt in the Clark added to his versatility. My only knock against Einstein is that he didn't win on turf the second half of the season.

Grand Couturier was 2-0-1 from five starts, his wins coming in the grade I Sword Dancer at Saratoga and grade I Turf Classic Invitational at Belmont. The latter was one of the best performances we have seen all season - scoring by a ridiculous 10 lengths. I'm still undecided about this one.

Older Turf Female

Another difficult choice. My finalists were Folk Opera, Goldikova, Mauralakana and Forever Together. Folk Opera spent most of her time in England, where she won a couple minor stakes and a group II. Then she came to North America and took the grade I E.P. Taylor. It was a solid year, but not enough for me.

Obviously, Goldikova's BC Mile win over the boys was spectacular; maybe the best performance of the whole weekend. She also won a pair of group I races and a group III in France. On paper and on the track, she is probably the most talented among these. But again, she had one race in the U.S. It's an American-based award and therefore, I couldn't vote for her. You have to take a stand somewhere.

Mauralakana was probably my favorite female turfer all year. She showed a ton of heart in her four straight wins, the last one coming in the grade I Beverly D. I really enjoyed watching her run, as she tried every time out. I wanted to vote for her, but I just felt as though Forever Together did a little more. Trained by Jonathan Sheppard, Forever Together won four times on grass, three of them coming in grade I events. For me, her BC Filly & Mare turf win locked up the award.

Jockey

On paper, Garrett Gomez would seem to have the upper hand here. Go-Go is first in earnings with more than $22 million and has a big lead in graded stakes victories.

But when deciding on this award, I think you have to dig a little deeper than rankings. You have to consider everything and watch a lot of racing to see who really gets the most out of every mount. To me, that is Rafael Bejarano.

Bejarano is not only second in earnings and has more grade I wins (9) than anyone, but he was absolutely dominating in California. He is on his way to a California sweep, where he will become only the third rider to win all five meet titles in the state - all of this coming in his first full year in California. You rarely get a bad ride out of Bejarano either. He seems to always get the nod in photos too, which is the sign of a great rider.

Division Rankings With Two Weeks and Counting

jshandler — Sun, 12 Oct 2008 17:23:00 GMT

With less than two weeks to go until the World Championships, now is a good time to look at some of the top contenders in each division. Obviously, there will be plenty of surprises when the pre-entries come out Thursday, so this is just a rough draft, if you will.

Right now, the biggest question marks are which Europeans will come over, and what races will they enter. Because of the synthetic surface, some which may have pointed to the Mile or Turf in years past may try the Classic. We’ll have to wait and see.

Be sure to check in all next week when I’ll analyze each division in-depth and later in the week, give out selections.

Friday, Oct. 24 races

Filly and Mare Sprint: Shaping up to be a deep and talented group.

1. Indian Blessing – Champion gets slight edge based on class edge, but she is by no means a shoe in. Is there any possibility she tries the boys?

2. Indyanne – TCA was very impressive considering splits she ran and what she had left in final sixteenth.

3. Intangaroo – Won three G1’s this year and nobody seems to know.

Watch out for: Lady Sprinter – A perfect 8-for-8 on dirt in Argentina; Will make U.S. debut in BC.

Juvenile Filly Turf: Doesn’t look all that intriguing now that European star Rainbow View is being pointed towards the Juvenile Fillies. We’ll see how it shakes out.

1. Maram – Miss Grillo winner looks as good as any right now.

2. C Karma – Never been off the board in five starts. Natalma winner makes first start outside of Woodbine.

3. Freedom Rings – Runner-up in a pair of stakes events.

Juvenile Fillies: Addition of European star would add a lot of intrigue.

1. Stardom Bound – Debutante and Oak Leaf wins were awesome.

1A. Rainbow View – Perfect 4-for-4 in England. If she runs, it could turn into a great stretch duel.

3. Sky Diva – Looks like the best on East Coast.

Watch out for Be Smart: Smarty Jones filly was second to Dream Empress in Alcibiades but has a lot of talent.

Filly and Mare Turf: No overwhelming favorite at this point. Betting should be wide-open.

1. Mauralakana – Beaten last out but tough to argue with the year she’s had. Tries every time.

2. Wait a While – Form as a good as anyone right now.

3. Black Mamba – New Zealand-bred has never been off the board.

Watch out for: Ventura – Has kind of fallen off the radar since Woodbine Mile. I wouldn’t forget about her.

Ladies Classic: Might be the most anticipated race all weekend, even without Proud Spell. Should be special.

1. Zenyatta – Still perfect and gets the stay home. Could be Horse of the Year if everything falls right.

2. Music Note – Will have to beat older horses, but she has talent to do it.

3. Hystericalady – Was soundly beaten by Zenyata and synthetic is not her best surface, but I still like her here.

3A. Ginger Punch – Still the champ.

Watch out for: Carriage Trail – Stakes record in Spinster while drifting badly. Is she set up to bounce? Time will tell.

Saturday, Oct. 25 races

Marathon: A shame Evening Attire was retired. He would have added a lot to this event. With only a few preps for this division, we know little at this point. My guess is we’ll see a few Europeans enter, which should spice things up.

1. Delightful Kiss – I guess you have to give him the early edge based on Fall Championship and All American Stakes, both on artificial surfaces.

2. Big Booster – One of two probables for Mike Mitchell. Has won two in a row and is plenty fresh.

3. Dominican – Darrin Miller has not yet committed to sending last year’s Blue Grass winner.

Watch out for: Frost Giant – IEAH is now saying Suburban winner might be entered. One European name to keep in mind is Sixtees Icon.

Turf Sprint: Really won’t know too much until Thursday.

1. Mr. Nightlinger – One thing we do know is he’ll be the favorite. Enters on five-race win streak.

2. True to Tradition – Nearctic and Turf Monster winner in good form for Scott Lake.

3. Diabolical – Last year’s Vanderbilt winner ran a good one two weeks ago at Ascot.

Watch Out for: Salute the Count – Won at Saratoga last month and 8-year-old Dutrow trainee is always in the mix.

Dirt Mile: Looks like California horses have the edge here.

1. Well Armed – Seems that Eoin Harty is leaning towards Mile instead of Classic. Will be tough if that is the case.

2. Surf Cat – The old man always gives his best. Cutback could be to his liking.

3. Tale of Ekati – Ran a career-best 104 Beyer in Jerome. Could be the best spot for the 3-year-old.

Watch out for: Albertus Maximus – Improving colt set one-mile Del Mar track record this year.

Mile: Looks like some of the top Europeans are leaning towards the Classic. We’ll have to wait and see.

1. Kip Deville – Willing to excuse his Woodbine Mile. Last year’s winner has to get benefit of the doubt.

2. Goldikova – According to DRF, talented filly will try Mile instead of Filly and Mare Turf. She’s won consecutive group I mile events in France.

3. Thorn Song – Probably won’t have it as easy as he did at Keeneland.

Watch out for: Spirit One – If speedy Arlington Million winner enters, could ruin things for Thorn Song.

Juvenile: You have to assume that Vineyard Haven is not going. With Charitable Man out and Run Away and Hide a likely defection, things seem wide-open.

1. Square Eddie – Impressive Futurity winner on top right now by default.

2. Munnings – Second in Champagne, but likely to improve.

3. Street Hero – Norfolk winner never off the board in five starts.

Watch Out for: Midshipman – Second in Norfolk. Can’t discount a Baffert 2-year-old. Also, Pioneerof the Nile, who will likely move off the turf, could be an upset possibility for Bill Mott if he draws in.

Juvenile Turf: Another one where we won’t know too much until entry time.

1. Grand Adventure – I was impressed with gutsy Summer victory.

2. Bittel Road – Undefeated and looking good for Pletcher.

3. Jukebox Jury – Irish colt rallied from last in Royal Lodge.

Watch out for: Skipadate – Tough luck so far, but he has talent. Also, Duke of Homberg, a winner in France, could improve off fourth-place Pilgrim, which was his U.S. debut.

Sprint: Injuries to Benny the Bull, Abraaj and Bustin Stones have opened the division up.

1. Fabulous Strike – Is fast as lighting and has a ton of heart. Will he like the Pro-Ride?

2. Street Boss – Likely favorite has been tremendous this year.

3. Cost of Freedom – Ancient Title winner has won three straight.

Watch out for: Midnight Lute – Baffert says last year’s Sprint winner is ready to roll.

Turf: As always, Europeans will play a big part here although we still don’t know who is coming, let alone who will opt for the Mile. In the U.S., there isn’t a lot separating top few.

1. Grand Couturier – Couldn’t be coming into the race any better.

2. Red Rocks – The 2006 winner will come in with 3 ½ months rest.

3. Red Giant – Set North American turf record for 10 furlongs in Clement Hirsch. Can’t disregard.

Watch out for: All of the Europeans. Henrythenavigator and Raven’s Pass seem to be pointing towards Classic, but there is still Soldier of Fortune and Eagle Mountain. Also, I haven’t heard about Archipenko yet. Duke of Marmalade is definitely coming, but will it be for the Classic or Turf?

Classic: Full picture won’t be complete until we know for sure about Curlin, and which Europeans will enter.

1. Curlin – Will have another work on Pro-Ride Monday. You would think connections should be able to tell us by then.

2. Big Brown – Continues to work on grass. Looking forward to seeing him at Santa Anita.

3. Go Between – Might be the best of the West.

Watch out for: Colonel John, Casino Drive, Student Council and at the risk of being repetitive, any European.

Division Leaders

jshandler — Tue, 12 Aug 2008 21:26:00 GMT

We're now a little more than five weeks into the Breeders' Cup season and the divisions are beginning to take shape. The continuing story thus far is how the male division seemingly gets more ordinary every day while the female division continues to get more exciting. Unless this Big Brown-Curlin thing actually happens, there is no doubt the Ladies Classic will be much more interesting come late October. I forget, what day is the Ladies Classic being run? Never mind.

Anyway, with about two more months of Breeders' Challenge events left to go, I thought it would be a good idea to take a look at a few of the divisions. Let's do our best to rank the top 3 American-based horses in each one. Here goes:

Classic

1. Curlin - You still have to give him the edge even though we have no idea if Jess Jackson will send him to Santa Anita.

2. Big Brown - Looking forward to seeing the spot they pick for him. Something tells me it will be the Pennsylvania Derby.

3. Commentator - He ran the year's top Beyer (119) so you have to respect him. Looks like he'll go to the Mass Cap next month and point towards the Classic. But can he get 1 1/4 miles?

Don't forget about: Henrythenavigator - He's won four consecutive group I races and some say he is the best horse in the world. Aidan O'Brian says he will point towards this race, which should spice things up.

Ladies Classic

1. Ginger Punch - She's the champ. Until someone proves otherwise, I'm ranking her above Zenyatta.

2 . Zenyatta - Undefeated and getting better. Has a huge advantage because of the synthetics.

3. Music Note - Looking forward to this weekend's Alabama. She might be the best of them all.

Don't forget about: Hystericalady. She lost by a nose in the '07 Distaff and is even better this year.

Tough for me to leave out Proud Spell and Little Belle, but what can you do?

Turf

1. Red Rocks - Won the best U.S. turf race this year.

2. Gio Ponti - Hasn't faced grade I company yet, but a star in the making.

3. Einstein - Had a poor start in the Million, but the loss was more than just that.

Don't forget about: Any European. The Americans will have their hands full against all of them. All three that took money in Arlington Million might be back for BC.

Filly & Mare Turf

1. Mauralakana - Gotta love her. She just knows how to get it done.

2. Forever Together - Diana was no fluke.

3. Black Mamba - Not BC nominated, but owners will probably fork over the cash.

Don't forget about: J'ray: She narrowly lost to Mauralakana twice.

Sprint

1. Benny the Bull: All he does is win. The way he powers down the stretch is breathtaking.

2. J Be K - Has never lost at less than a mile.

3. Street Boss - That's five in a row for the synthetic specialist.

Don't forget about: Kodiak Kowboy: Highly-touted as a 2-year-old, he might be coming into his own.

Mile

1. Kip Deville: Pure miler is lightly-raced this year, but will be primed and ready for Santa Anita.

2. Daytona -Tired in American Handicap. A mile might be his best distance.

3. Monzante - Just beginning to hit his best stride.

Don't forget about: Red Giant: Very impressive off a 10-month layoff. Not sure what his best distance is, but Pletcher will figure it out.

More division rankings to come later...

Handicapping Arlington Million Day

jshandler — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 17:48:00 GMT

With all the Big Brown and Curlin hoopla over the past week or so, we've gotten away from the Breeders' Cup Challenge. Let's get back into now, and what better time to do it then on one of my favorite days - the International Festival of Racing. The Beverly D. and the Arlington Million are "Win and You're In" events, and both look like terrific races.

Beverly D.

This looks like the better betting race of the two, with four horses coming off graded stakes wins and a couple of formidable Europeans to consider. There are also three millionaires in the field.

Pace should not be an issue here, as both Dreaming of Anna and Rosinka should ensure some pretty brisk fractions. I like both of them, especially because of their connections, but taking top prize here will be asking a lot. Mauarlakana is one of my favorite female turfers out there and she will be a handful here. She has been nearly perfect this year and the race should set up just fine for her from a pace standpoint. I'm going to pass on Precious Kitten, both because of her short odds and the fact that she hasn't been tested as much as some of the others this year. That being said, it wouldn't shock me if she won, especially after that 108 Beyer last out. Frankel and Bejarano are tough to bet against right now. Communique must be considered because she is an improving filly and gets the services of Arlington's leading rider, Rene Douglas. The two European-based fillies, Toque de Queda and Cicerole, have done their best work at a mile, so distance could be an issue.

The Pick:

It's taking every fiber of my being not to go with Mauralakana here. Three straight Beyers over 100 and four of five in the winner's circle this year. This is a special horse who can explode down the stretch. But she will probably be 5/2 or less, so I am going to reluctantly pass and go for a price. The price horses I considered most seriously were Rosinka and Cicerole. Both should be 7/1 or more and are in good form. In the end, I went with Rosinka. My hope is that she won't get in a speed duel with Dreaming of Anna, but rather she will press the pace and take over coming off the turn - much like she did in the Glenn Falls Handicap. Here's a 5-year-old who might be in the best form of her career and is very consistent. She hasn't been off the board in her last eight tries. In her final race as a 4-year-old she just missed against Lahudood in the grade I Flower Bowl. We all know what Lahudood did after that. This will certainly be the toughest spot of Rosinka's career and it will take her best. But I have some catching up to do in this contest and I need to take a shot.

Arlington Million

If you watched this week's edition of That Handicapping Show, you know that I really like Archipenko. He has won group I or II races on three different continents this year and his only loss since late February came in the Dubai Duty Free by a half-length. Many believe that race was the toughest and deepest turf race in the world this year. If you haven't seen the replay, here it is. He comes flying late to get third.

Archipenko is trained by Michael de Kock, who took over from Aidan O'Brien early this year. A South African, de Kock is one of the most respected trainers in the world. The addition of blinkers is one of the reasons he gave for Archipenko's drastic turnaround from the second half of his 3-year-old campaign. Whatever the reason, Archipenko will be extremely tough to beat here. He'll get regular jockey Kevin Shea, who flies in from South Africa. You also can't dismiss O'Brien's horse, Mount Nelson. He also looked very impressive while winning the Coral-Eclipse last month in England. Here is the video. O'Brien won the Million in 2005 with Powerscourt. Actually Powerscourt won in 2004 as well, but was disqualified and placed fourth. I like Stream Cat too, an improving horse who won the Arlington Handicap by four lengths despite a nine-month layoff. He was only a length back in last year's Million. Einstein is always tough, but I'm guessing he takes a step back here. Sudan, who I also considered, was scratched today.

The Pick:

Archipenko looks too tough for me to pass up here. Some say he might be one of the best turf horses in the world. His price will be short, but since I went with Rosinka in the Beverly D., I can afford to take some chalk here.

**For the record, I am taking Plan to upset Tizdejavu in the Secretariat. Good luck to everyone!!