Breeders Cup Chat : Mike Iavarone

Are You Excited About the Monmouth Stakes?

jshandler — Fri, 12 Sep 2008 16:53:00 GMT

I have mixed feeling about Big Brown racing in the newly-created Monmouth Stakes this weekend.

On one hand, I am happy to see the Derby winner running at all. After the Belmont, most of us probably thought there was little chance he would ever see the racetrack again, especially considering the fragility of his feet. I've said this many times before, I give Mike Iavarone a lot of credit for continuing to run Big Brown since he really has nothing to gain and everything to lose, financially speaking. So in this respect, I guess we should all be happy that he is even racing at all.

I can also appreciate the connections wanting to run Big Brown on turf as a prep for the Breeders' Cup Classic. Those tender feet are probably worse than they are letting on. Rick Dutrow admitted the other day that "he's not a horse that wakes up ready to roll." Those lingering quarter cracks are a very real issue to contend with and the grass is simply an easier surface for Big Brown to run on. I get it.

Finally, I understand the main goal here is the Classic. That is the race which will decide Horse of the Year and carries a $5 million purse. Everything between now and then doesn't matter much to Iavarone and Co. They want their ideal six weeks of rest heading into the big race. I understand.

Admitting all of the above, part of me still thinks the connections took the easy way out the second half of his 3-year-old season and that should count against them. First, they showed up at the Haskell and completely bypassed Saratoga. That is questionable. Saratoga is where champions go.

This latest move to turf I am okay with, but if that is the path you want to take, at least show up in a graded stakes race. There were plenty of options - The Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at Belmont and the Clement Hirsch Turf Championship at Santa Anita, both on Sept. 27. Or, if they wanted a true prep for the Classic, how about the Goodwood on the same surface he will see in October? Four weeks of rest should be plenty for the Classic, despite what Dutrow says.

Heck, I would have even been fine with the Kentucky Cup Turf this weekend at Kentucky Downs. At least it's a grade III and I'm sure Kentucky Downs would have increased the purse, like Monmouth did.

I would have been okay with any of those options. Instead, they had Monmouth create a new race for them, one that really is a just a glorified allowance race with a big purse. There are a couple proven horses in here, but no grade I winners and nothing Big Brown can't destroy if he is on the top of his game. I have been critical of Curlin's connections in the past as well, but at least when they moved him to turf they chose an established race. There is something to be said for that.

I expect the Derby winner and probable 3-year-old champion to show up against the best. The Haskell wasn't the spot. The Travers was. The Monmouth Stakes isn't the spot. Santa Anita or Belmont was.

I'm wondering how many of you feel about the race this weekend. After all, we are getting to see Big Brown run on turf, which should be fun no matter where it is or what the race is called. But are you excited? Or did this spot turn you off? I have mixed feelings.

If you are planning on betting the race, here is my take on "That Handicapping Show."

No More Challenges Jess, Just Show Up

jshandler — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 17:28:00 GMT

Okay, after the peculiar back-and-forth repartee between Jess Jackson and Mike Iavarone that was carried out by the media on Wednesday, I am officially annoyed with the Big Brown vs. Curlin situation.

And after all the bickering that has taken place, it finally appears that the two most popular horses in America will never meet.

It is a very sad situation for one simple reason: In the end, not only does the industry lose, but so do the fans. Had the two camps come to terms and had it been marketed correctly, this is a match-up that would have done wonders for a sport that could certainly use a boost in popularity. It could have been huge.

Here is my official take on the situation:

Jess Jackson should stop issuing challenges and meet Big Brown in The Breeders' Cup Classic.

As many of you know I have been critical of Big Brown's connections in the past, but in this case I cannot fault them. The Woodward and the Jockey Club Gold Cup, while certainly both races that seem attractive on paper, would not be the right fit for Big Brown.

The Haskell took a lot out of Big Brown, which both Rick Dutrow and Iavarone have already admitted, and they feel coming back in four weeks for the Woodward would be too soon. Remember, he went through a grueling Triple Crown stretch and he has chronically bad feet. They know their horse better than we do. We have to give them the benefit of the doubt on that one.

The Gold Cup would give him eight weeks of rest, but it would also be less than a month until the Classic, which doesn't make sense either. Ideally, they want more time than that. Again, you can't fault them.

I am not sure what spot they will pick for Big Brown. It is likely to be much softer than either of the aforementioned races and on the surface it will seem like they are ducking Curlin. But if Iavarone wants a turf prep for his horse, that is his right. Admittedly, it does make more sense to run on turf as a prep for a synthetic race, as opposed to dirt. Remember, the goal all along has been the Classic. They have been upfront about that from Day 1.

Bottom line: Horse of the Year championships in this day and age are decided in the Breeders' Cup Classic. Having the race on a synthetic surface is not ideal for everyone, especially since Santa Anita's will be brand new, but it is what it is. It would be the first race on the surface for both horses, so neither would have an advantage. Synthetics are here to stay and Jackson needs to realize this and embrace it.

Somehow, the word "synthetic" has become a four-letter word to many. I realize it makes handicapping more challenging and last year's slow-playing Del Mar surface turned off some. Constantly hearing the gripes of some of the top trainers who don't care for it hasn't helped either. But the reason it was created in the first place is because it is safer for horses, and early research has shown that it does reduce catastrophic injuries. I'm tired of all the complaining about synthetics. Deal with it. It's not going away.

Curlin won last year's Classic in the muddy soup at Monmouth. I'd like to ask Jackson if he thinks that surface was any safer for his horse than Santa Anita's Pro-Ride will be. The George Washington tragedy was a pretty good indication that it wasn't.

The reality is, they are spending millions to redo Santa Anita's ailing surface and will have plenty of time to test the track at the beginning of the meet. Does anyone really believe they would risk having racing's biggest day on a track that is not safe for horses? Not a chance.

If Jackson plans it right, Curlin will have plenty of time to train over the new surface. All the horses will, including Henrythenavigator, who some label as the world's best horse and is being pointed towards the Classic. Aidan O'Brien, the world's best trainer, doesn't seem bothered by the surface.

I don't criticize Jackson for trying to put the Curlin-Big Brown match-up together in New York. I genuinely believe he would like to be able to share it with the fans. He seems like a good sportsman, has the best interest of the industry at heart and is in touch with what people want. On the flip side, he needs to realize that the Breeders' Cup is the international showcase. It is racing's biggest stage and has been for a quarter of a century. It is the most logical place for the two stars to meet.

The surface will be safe. Get over your aversion to synthetics and show up in California. Everyone wants to see it.

Curlin vs. Big Brown in BC Turf May Be the Only Way They Meet

jshandler — Wed, 06 Aug 2008 01:01:00 GMT

Curlin vs. Big Brown: Every racing fan in the nation wants to see it. It's a match-up that would be great for the sport and would give the industry a huge shot in the arm.

The only problem is, with every passing day the chances of it happening seem to grow slimmer.

From where I sit, the only realistic way it happens is Oct. 25 in the Breeders' Cup Turf. That's right, the Turf, not the Classic.

Based on the comments of Jess Jackson and Mike Iavarone over the past two days, here's what we know:

Curlin will go in the Woodward on Aug. 30. Most of us are in agreement that this is a logical place for Big Brown to meet Curlin, as it gives him four weeks rest and it's at Saratoga, the best meet in the world. The only problem is, Iavarone said he is looking for a turf race for Big Brown, some time in mid-September. I have yet to hear his reasoning for this, but can only assume it is to prep him for a run on the synthetic at Santa Anita and possibly to ease his troubled feet.

If Big Brown goes in a turf race in mid-September that takes out the possibility of the two meeting in Curlin's next tilt, which based on Jackson's comments today, could be the Jockey Club Gold Cup on Sept. 27. He also gave a few other possibilities, including the Sept. 20 Mass Cap, but either way, he won't be meeting Big Brown in September. The timing just isn't right.

If you heard Jackson speak today, which I did, you will know that the possibility of him running Curlin on the synthetic Pro-Ride at Santa Anita is very slim. Here is a little bit of what he said:

"I'd like to go (to the Classic). I'm a native Californian. But it's on an untested surface. It causes great concern. Why run a horse like Curlin that is on a surface that's undefined? We've won the Classic - been there, done that. (If we did go), I would love to have a prep race on the exact surface, but it doesn't appear we will be able to. We would probably only be able to exercise on it a few times."

He is scared to death to race Curlin on that surface. He made that very clear in his lengthy media conference. Could he have a change of heart? Sure, anything is possible. But don't count on it.

Where does all this leave us? The only logical place is the Breeders Cup Turf. For it to happen, Big Brown will need to win his mid-September race and look good doing it. That would give Iavarone all the confidence he needs to stick Big Brown in the BC Turf, for what would be his final race. It would also be more acceptable to Jackson, who was clear today when he said Curlin could very easily go back to racing on turf, despite his losing effort in the Man o' War.

It would also be very attractive to both because of the historical ramifications. Can you imagine if the Derby and Preakness winner won his his final career race in the BC Turf and beat the reigning Horse of the Year doing it?Or, if the 2007 BC Classic winner ended his career by winning the 2008 BC Turf, defeating the probable 3-year-old champion doing it? Both would be unprecidented and amazing accomplishments.

Other than Iavarone having a change of heart and deciding to run Big Brown in the Woodward, I can see no other way that these two meet. And if that is the case, I think I speak for all of us when I say, what a shame that would be.

What Did We Learn From Big Brown's Haskell?

jshandler — Mon, 04 Aug 2008 11:35:00 GMT

It is not often that a horse wins a $1 million grade I race and people still walk away scratching their heads.

Was it a good performance or not?

It is a difficult question to answer. Then again, we should not have expected anything less. From the very start, everything about Big Brown seems to be complicated.

On Sunday at Monmouth Park, Big Brown won the Haskell Invitational, as he collared front-running Coal Play inside the sixteenth-pole to win by 1 3/4 lengths. In one respect, Big Brown did exactly what his connections wanted him to do - rebound from his disappointment in the Belmont Stakes and restore his reputation.

On the other hand, it was not the visually impressive performance that many expected - including trainer Rick Dutrow Jr. - and it was far from a resounding win. In fact, the horse he struggled to beat, Coal Play, had only maiden and allowance wins to show for his eight-start career.

So, what did we learn?

For one, the most important thing is that Big Brown did what he had to do to continue his racing career. Had he come up empty down the stretch, as it appeared for a short while that he was going to do, there is a decent possibility that we would have seen the last of the dual classic winner. After hearing Mike Iavarone afterward, it seems fairly certain that Big Brown will race at least twice more before his career ends. In that respect, it was an important win.

Also, after looking at the replays several times, I give Big Brown a little more credit than I did while watching the race live. One must take into consideration that he was entering off a nearly two-month layoff and won despite coming off a last place finish in his most recent race, something no horse had ever done in the Haskell.

More importantly, after seeing the fractions and final time, it must be pointed out that Coal Play ran a terrific race. As stated above, Coal Play had done nothing prior to this race for people to say he was anything but an average 3-year-old. But you can take nothing away from the fact that he ran a :23 opening quarter, :46 2/5 half-mile, 1:10 4/5 for six furlongs and 1:35 mile. They are very solid splits. Anyone, let alone Big Brown, would have a difficult time running down a horse who runs those numbers. And the final time of 1:48.31 was respectable.

And while it was obvious that Coal Play was leg weary in that final furlong, give Big Brown a lot of credit for having the grit to run by him when he was obviously not at his best.

On the flip side of this debate, anyone who watched the Haskell could see that Big Brown did not have the same explosiveness that he showed in every one of his other races (save the Belmont, of course). Kent Desormeaux certainly did not have a "freak" under him, as he has in the past. He had a very good race horse that used his talent and experience to get the job done. And as all of know by now, he got the job done against a very average field.

So what did Big Brown's Haskell win really tell us? Other than it appears he has regressed a bit from the first half of the year, not much. I am going to need to see him run these final two races before I make my final judgment on him. I will also need to see what Coal Play does the rest of the year to really see who Big Brown beat.

The early rumors are that Iavarone will send him to either the Massachusetts Handicap or the Pennsylvania Derby (Wow, imagine Big Brown coming to Philly Park). But this won't be decided for a week or more. In the meantime, let's do what we do best - analyze this performance until we're blue in the face.