Breeders Cup Chat : Mine That Bird

Find That Bird--a Win

Jason Shandler — Thu, 12 Aug 2010 16:31:00 GMT

The former Derby winner is not at a grade I level right now......(read more)

Guest blog: The King and the Queen

cdawahare@bloodhorse.com — Thu, 05 Aug 2010 18:15:00 GMT

The horses are ready. The stages are set. Saratoga and Del Mar, hosts of the two most prestigious summer meets of the year, are about to play host to something even bigger: the King and the Queen of horse racing....(read more)

Don't Read Too Much Into Works

Jason Shandler — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 22:24:00 GMT

"It was perfect."

"He's as fit and sharp as he's ever been."

"He's ready to roll."

These were the comments of Chip Woolley, Eoin Harty, and Bob Baffert, respectively, right after each of their BC Classic starters turned in their final works. Woolley, who has Mine That Bird, Harty (Colonel John), and Baffert (Richard's Kid), all sounded extremely confident that their horses would run the race of their lives on Nov. 7.

Later, I ran into Helen Pitts and she too was optimistic that Einstein would turn in a big one based on his recent training.

It was at that point that I bumped into a colleague and he and I shared the same thought: Has any trainer ever publicly said that their horse's work "wasn't what they wanted" or "left something to be desired?" If they have, I can't remember.

My point is, often times we tend to make too much of works, especially during big events like the Kentucky Derby and the Breeders' Cup. Each one is picked over in critical fashion, and the fact is, most times you'll find observers saying the same thing: "Wow, he looked great." Or, "he's getting over the track really well."

From a handicapping perspective, the works are often overrated. Baffert said it best: "I'm happy the way that he's been working, but you know, it's not the way they look in the morning that matters; it's who shows up on race day."

In the Classic especially, we are all looking for any edge we can get. It's one of the toughest Classics to handicap in a long time. There are so many variables with each horse--Zenyatta going against males at a new distance, Gio Ponti switching from turf, the Euros running on synthetics for the first time, Mine That Bird and Summer Bird facing elders, and so on and so forth. Works are part of the equation, but they are not everything. You will need to go much deeper with your handicapping in this race, and then you'll still need some luck to win.

For what it's worth, in my opinion, Richard's Kid's work was visually more impressive than anyone. He looked like an express train in the stretch.

But then again, you know what they say--all of them looked great.

___________

Quote of the morning went to Baffert, who when commenting on the time it took him to acclimate his training to synthetic surfaces said: "The first year they put Polytrack in at Del Mar I thought I was going to have to quit training and get a job selling shoes at Nordstrom."

Back tomorrow afternoon with thoughts on the draw and more...

The Woodward is Fine, But the Travers Was What We Wanted

Jason Shandler — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 17:21:00 GMT

Rachel Alexandra is blazing a path that no other 3-year-old filly has in modern history. She has already beaten her male peers in the Preakness and Haskell, and will now try to defeat older males in the Woodward. She is an amazing racehorse and a blessing for Thoroughbred racing during a tough time.

So why is there part of me that feels disappointed she will go to the Woodward and not the Travers?

When Steve Asmussen made the announcement on Monday, I was not the least bit surprised. I've said for weeks that this would be her next spot. When it (finally) came though, I felt let down.

The reemergence of Quality Road has given the Mid-Summer Derby a shot in the arm. I don't think there is a person who likes this sport that did not want to see Rachel vs. Quality Road, likely the two best 3-year-olds in the country right now. Throw in a rematch against Derby winner Mine That Bird (hopefully) and Belmont winner Summer Bird, and improving colts Warrior's Reward and Hold Me Back, and it would have been a dream race--maybe the race of the year. (I would have mentioned Charitable Man here, but Kiaran McLaughlin had already made it clear that he would not send him to the Travers if Rachel was going.)

Jackson is not wrong for sending Rachel to the Woodward. It's a great race in its own right and if she were to win, she would add to her continuing legacy of greatness by becoming the first filly to do so. As an owner, it also would not have been in Jackson's best interest to run Rachel and Kensei in the same race. Just doesn't make sense.

From these two perspectives, you cannot blame Jackson.

However, the fact is, the Woodward is an easier spot--even against older horses--and it won't carry as much public appeal as the Travers would. Had Quality Road, Summer Bird and (hopefully) Mine That Bird not been in the race, I might feel differently. But it seems they will be there, and it's disappointing the three Classic winners and Quality Road won't have their showdown in the Mid-Summer Derby.

I saw the probable field for the Woodward. It's OK. Bullsbay and Macho Again. Asiatic Boy is probable. They are nice horses. But does that get your juices flowing like the Travers would? C'mon, be honest.

My feeling is that Jackson did not want to run Rachel at 1 1/4 miles. I think he would rather keep her in her comfort zone at 1 1/8 and do so against a pretty average field. I also think Jackson also had dollar signs in his head with Kensei possibly winning the Travers, a race that would make his stallion career. Just my opinion.

Again, Jackson doesn't look bad for sending Rachel to the Woodward. He is still taking an unconventional path. The race will be fun.

Just do me a favor and save all the "great sportsman" stuff. The Travers was the spot we all wanted. There would have been other opportunities for Rachel to face older horses. In the end, Jackson chose Kensei's potential stud value over a race the whole sport wanted to see.

A Superstar, a Star in the Making, and a Star Losing His Light

Jason Shandler — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 15:56:00 GMT

Breathtaking. Sensational. Poetry in motion.

New superlatives are becoming tough to find when describing superstar filly Rachel Alexandra. Her six-length romp in the Haskell against an overmatched group of 3-year-old colts that included the Belmont Stakes winner, Arkansas Derby winner and a talented graded stakes winning sprinter was nothing short of phenomenal.

Everything about it was awesome - the splits she ran, the ease in which she did it, and the final time of 1:47.21, which just missed Spend a Buck's track record. And it came on a sloppy track while being forced wide. Three-year-old fillies are just not supposed to be able to do these things.

What does it all mean? Well for one, she most likely locked up Horse of the Year honors, despite a full five months remaining in the season and not going to the Breeders' Cup, according to her owner Jess Jackson. It also means Rachel is well on her way to establishing herself as the greatest American 3-year-old filly in modern history. And if she wins the Travers and/or defeats older horses - and there is no reason to think she can't do both -- we might have to start talking about one of the greatest 3-year-old seasons by any horse, male or female, in a long time.

We have plenty of time to debate Rachel's place in history. That can come later. For now, we should all just enjoy what we are seeing, and look forward to what else she has in store for us. Folks, she is getting better. And the best part is, barring injury, we get to see her for at least 17 more months.

Nearly lost in Rachel's Haskell romp was the tremendous weekend it capped for trainer Steve Asmussen, who swept the major 3-year-old stakes by sending out Soul Warrior to a 23-1 upset in the West Virginia Derby and Kensei to an impressive score in the Jim Dandy. The latter, who happens to also be co-owned by Jess Jackson, is a star in the making.

Kensei has now notched consecutive grade II scores around two turns, and both of them have been eye-catching. The son of Mr. Greeley beat a solid field that included Warrior's Reward, Charitable Man and Convocation, with ease. He has all the looks of a horse who is rapidly improving, and at this point, with all the injuries to the nation's top 3-year-olds, Asmussen and Jackson might just have the second best sophomore in the country. Time will tell. Talk about an embarrassment of riches. I'm looking forward to seeing more from this colt, although, he will probably never meet Rachel.

Finally, there is Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird, who seems to be a star losing his light. Mine That Bird has now lost three straight races since winning the roses, and quite honestly, I'm getting a little tired of people making excuses for him.

First, it was, "He would have beat Rachel in the Preakness if the race was just a few yards longer." In the Belmont, people blamed Calvin Borel for a premature move. Now, Mike Smith and trainer Chip Woolley are saying Smith's ride and the 11-pound weight disparity cost him the West Virginia Derby.

The fact is, Mine That Bird is a good horse, not a great horse. He won the Derby and that should be respected, but he had every chance to win all three of those following races and came up short. This past weekend, he had the entire stretch to outduel a 23-1 allowance winner, and catch a game Big Drama, who set ambitious fractions. He could not.

Mine That Bird is a horse who needs a beneficial pace scenario, and most importantly, a perfectly-time move to win graded stakes races. He is one-dimensional. Let's face facts. He is good, hard-trying horse. Is he capable of winning another big race this season? Absolutely. But enough with the excuses.

Poll - Who Will Win the BC Classic?

Jason Shandler — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 17:56:00 GMT

Welcome to Breeders' Cup Chat and the second half of the Thoroughbred racing season. The Breeders' Cup Challenge "Win and You're In" races are well underway and Del Mar and Saratoga are right around the corner. Because of the various divisions and these premier racing meets, in many ways I look forward to the Breeders' Cup more than the Triple Crown.

Though there have many unfortunate injuries that have taken several of our stars away from us in the first half of the season, the 2009 Breeders' Cup promises to be an exciting one. All of the divisions are beginning to take shape thanks to 62 "Win and You're In" races from around the world.

During the next several months we will take an in-depth look at many of the divisions. Just off the top of my head, the Turf with Gio Ponti and Presious Passion, and the Sprint, which could include Fabulous Strike, Benny the Bull, Zenzational and Munnings, have the potential to be very exciting. And European stars such as Goldikova and Sea the Stars will surely thicken the plot at Santa Anita.

As for the Classic, the absence of the nation's best 3-year-old, Rachel Alexandra, will be a downer, but from the looks of things at this moment there are more than a dozen horses with a legitimate shot winning, including undefeated mare Zenyatta, sensational older male Einstein, 3-year-old stars Mine That Bird and Summer Bird, and aforementioned European superstar Sea the Stars.

Since we are still almost four months away and anything can happen, the Classic field is still largely unsettled. But all things remaining equal, I am curious who the consensus pick would be if we had to make a selection today. It's a tough call since we don't know which Europeans will be here and whether horses like Quality Road will round back into form. But it's still fun too where everyones mind is right now.

If I had to pick, right now I would go with Einstein. He fires every time and is already proven over the course. If he stays healthy, he will be tough. I'm interested in seeing who everyone else likes.

In the meantime, if there are any topics you would like to see discussed or any trainers you would like to see interviewed over the next four months please let me know. I'm looking forward to lively discussion and interesting comments from you all.

Who do you think will win the 2009 Breeders' Cup Classic?(survey software)