Breeders Cup Chat : Student Council

Curlin Retirement Leaves a Huge Void For 2009

jshandler — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 22:06:00 GMT

The announcement earlier this week that Curlin would not race in 2009 was not a surprise, but the reality of it made me come to one disappointing realization:

Other than Zenyatta, there really aren't many top-tier older horses I am looking forward to watching next year.

With Big Brown and Curlin now out of the mix, we now have the two most popular, and arguably, the two best North American-based dirt horses retired. And that's just the beginning of it.

Some of the notable older horses who have either already been retired or will likely be retired after 2008 are Student Council, Ginger Punch, Hystericalady, Benny the Bull, Midnight Lute, Red Rocks, Evening Attire, Zanjero, Perfect Drift, Lava Man, Red Giant, Tough Tiz's Sis, Zaftig, Alwajeeha, Sealy Hill, Lewis Michael, Dreaming of Anna, Mauralakana, Heatseeker, as well as European stars Zarkava, Raven's Pass and Henrythenavigator. There is also probably a decent chance that Commentator and/or Kip Deville will be gone after their final races this year.

Kind of depressing, isn't it?

At least we have the top 3-year-olds to look forward to. Well, some of them anyway. That's because two of the top Kentucky Derby hopefuls, Vineyard Haven and Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Midshipman will winter in Dubai for Sheikh Mohammed, as well as BC Juvenile Turf winner Donativum likely going to England for Princess Haya.

Again, thank our lucky stars for Zenyatta.

Before I paint too bleak of a picture, there are still some exciting horses that should return in 2009, most of them females - Ventura, Cocoa Beach, Music Note, Proud Spell, Forever Together and Indian Blessing (Baffert's long range goal for her is the Dubai World Cup Sprint) to name a few. And, of course, there is Stardom Bound, who should only get better as a 3-year-old.

As far as the males, 3-year-olds like Colonel John, Mambo in Seattle and Denis of Cork should improve, and sprinter Fatal Bullet looks like he'll be a force. Perhaps the one older horse I am looking forward to seeing more than any other is BC Dirt Mile winner Albertus Maximus, who is set up for a big 5-year-old campaign.

l should also point out that this year is not unlike any other. The reality of horse racing today is that this is time of year when horses retire. It's the nature of the sport and we have to accept it. It's time for the new stars to make their mark.

However, it doesn't take away from the fact that the departure of Curlin, Big Brown and many of our other favorites leaves a huge void for 2009.

All of a Sudden, BC Classic Full of Intrigue

jshandler — Tue, 16 Sep 2008 20:32:00 GMT

Wasn't it just a few weeks ago that we were all complaining about the Breeders' Cup Classic lacking intrigue?

Now, if everything falls into place, this might be one of the most highly-anticipated Classics of all-time.

Of course, a lot has to be decided between now and Oct. 25, most importantly, whether or not reigning Horse of the Year Curlin will go to California. But after Jess Jackson's recent comments, it now seems there is a 50-50 chance that Curlin will head to Santa Anita to race on Pro-Ride.

The Classic looks like it will get another boost with Commentator, who will run in the Massachusetts Handicap this weekend and then point towards the big race. That was confirmed by his owner, Tracy Farmer, at a national media teleconference Sept. 16. Previously, it was unclear which race Commentator would shoot for.

"He's never run on synthetics, but he trained on it at Keeneland and absolutely loved it," Farmer said. "I'd say if we go - if I can get our trainer there - it would be in the Classic. There is a question about Santa Anita and its new track, but all the stuff I've heard so far has been positive. We'd love to run against Big Brown and Curlin if he is in the shape he was in the Whitney. He's got the fastest Beyer under a mile and over a mile."

Farmer's comment about "if I can get our trainer there" was in reference to Nick Zito, who is not a big proponent of synthetics. But when asked who would make the final decision on whether to send Commentator to the Breeders' Cup, Farmer said, "I would say the owner of the horse makes that decision."

Assuming Commentator runs well at the MassCap and comes out of it fine, the Classic field could potentially have three huge names - Big Brown, Curlin and Commentator. And that's just the beginning.

Also decent possibilities for the $5 million event are Travers winner Colonel John, Pacific Classic winner Go Between, San Diego and San Antonio Handicap winner Well Armed, Japanese ace Casino Drive, European turf stars Henrythenavigator and Duke of Marmalade, Travers runner-up Mambo in Seattle, the always game Student Council, battled-tested Tiago, talented 3-year-old Pyro, and don't forget about the possibility of undefeated filly Zenyatta. Also on Sept. 17, Larry Jones said Philip Iselin winner Honest Man might be pointed towards the Classic.

Now, if that doesn't get your juices flowing, you're not a racing fan!

There are still many questions to be answered in the next five weeks, but at least now the Classic seems to be back on everyone's radar.

You see, I told you all this complaining about the synthetic surface would play itself out. Just sit back, relax and enjoy...

Whitney Weekend

jshandler — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 21:01:00 GMT

Four Breeders' Cup Challenge races to handicap this week - all at Saratoga. Aside from the Go For Wand, they all look like good betting races. Let's get right to work.

Diana Stakes

This is a terrific race. On paper it looks as if no less than eight horses have a legitimate shot here. There are four grade I winners in the field - Wait a While, Bit of Whimsy, Rutherienne and Vacare. Bayou's Lassie, Criminologist and Lady Digby have all won graded stakes this season. And Dynaforce looks like she is right on the brink.

I'm going to take a pass on morning-line favorite Wait a While. She enters off a win in the San Gorgonio, but that was more than six months ago. She is remarkably consistent (10-3-4 from 20 starts), but at 3-1 and off that long layoff, I prefer others. I also looked at Bit of Whimsy, but she has not been at her best so far this year. Bayou's Lassie, Lady Digby and Criminologist always seem to fire, but haven't been successful at this level yet.

That left me with Christophe Clement trainees Vacare and Rutherienne, and Dynaforce. All three are capable in this spot. I reluctantly ruled out Rutherienne even though she gets Garrett Gomez and has won nine of 13 career starts. She very well could win this thing, and at a price. Dynaforce is also likely to improve in her second start in the states. She gave one of my favorite horses - Mauralakana - all she could handle in the New York Stakes last month. But in the end I decided to pass.

The Pick: Don't let an eighth-place finish in the Just A Game fool you - Vacare is a talented horse. She had a horrible trip in that race and was still only beaten four lengths. Talk about consistent. She is 6-1-1 from nine starts and has three graded wins. The Just A Game was her only off the board finish in seven stakes starts. She is likely to improve dramatically in her second start of the season, and gets Edgar Prado, who rode her to victory last year. You should get at least 5-1 on her. Clement has said that is the turf is too soft he might not run either of his horses, so I'll keep an eye on the weather. If Vacare doesn't go, I'll use Rutherienne or Dynaforce.

Vanderbilt Handicap

Tough not to like Bustin Stones. He's undefeated in six starts and even though a fever knocked him out of the Metropolitan Handicap, Bruce Levine says he's ready. Interesting that, on paper, Black Seventeen is faster to the half-mile pole, so what happens if and when the front-running Bustin Stones has to rate? He's never been behind anyone before.

Early speed could also come from E Z Warrior and Abraaj, which might set up Thor's Echo very well. First Defence enters off an impressive win on the turf and might be sitting on a big one.

The Pick: Tough one here. If Bustin Stones is right he should win. But at 2-1 or lower, he is worth trying to beat. The logical choice for me is First Defence. He was right there with Commentator and Divine Park in the one-mile Met Handicap before tiring in the stretch. He also battled Hard Spun last year in the Kings Bishop before finishing second. I like that Frankel moved him to the grass and will bring him right back to the dirt. He threw in a bullet work July 20. He doesn't need the lead to win.

Go For Wand

Ginger Punch is so much the best here that there isn't much to talk about. The only problem is that she'll likely pay $3 to win and $2.40 to place, if we're lucky. In light of that, do you take your $5 and change, be happy and walk away, or do you hope for an upset?

For contest purposes, I have to try to beat Ginger Punch (and coupled entry Spring Waltz, who also has a decent chance). I can't live with myself betting that kind of chalk, even though she is at another level than the rest of these. If I can pick the runner-up, I'm likely to get just as much to place as Ginger Punch will pay to win and place.

The Pick: I narrowed it down to Copper State and Runway Rosie, both horses with a lot of upside coming from good barns. In the end I chose Runway Rosie. She's won three lower-level stakes in New York this year, including a five-length romp last out in the Proud Delta, which is at the same 1 1/8-mile distance as this one. She is also graded stakes-placed three times, including the 2007 Las Virgenes when she was third but less than three lengths back of Rags to Riches. I'll take my chances with Gary Contessa, especially on a horse that will be 8-1 or more.

Whitney

Great betting race. Commentator, who won this event in 2005, gets the high weight and is the 3-1 morning-line favorite. He will be tough, but I'm looking elsewhere. I can't make a strong case for Grasshopper, Timber Reserve, Cowtown Cat or A.P. Arrow, so that left me with Solar Flare, Rising Moon and Student Council. Each of them should be a decent price.

The Pick: If you watched That Handicapping Show, you know I like both Student Council and Solar Flare. Both of them are in good form right now. But I decided to go with Student Council. He is a different horse since winning the Pimlico Special, is a grade I winner, and has had two sharp works at Saratoga this month. I love the fact that he is 5-3-2 on natural dirt (in the U.S.) since breaking his maiden in 2006. He should be a big factor - and at a nice price.

Good luck!!