Breeders Cup Chat : Ventura

Picks For Friday BC Races

jshandler — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 00:27:00 GMT

Ok fellow handicappers, the time has come for Breeders' Cup selections.

I have received many of your picks for the contest, so I have an idea of what you guys are thinking. I don't like picking winners two days out and I will be handicapping up to the races on Friday, but I do want to get this out there so that we can open up dialogue on each race.

Fire away with any questions/comments you may have and be sure to join in for the live blogs all week. I'll post another blog on Thursday with my Saturday picks. Looking forward to debating with everyone...

Marathon

I'm not crazy about this race, probably because other than a few horses, I haven't seen many of them race, and trying to handicap 1 ¾-mile races are not my specialty.

I've talked to some who say Mastery is the "lock" of the Breeders' Cup. I guess that is based on the St. Leger when he won by three-quarters of a length in September. He really has never run a bad race but has only won three times in eight starts. He's probably the deserving favorite, but if he is anywhere near 9-5 I will likely just play exotics and no win tickets.

I do like Father Time a bit. He had a troubled trip in that St. Leger and should improve off that. This could be a chalky race.

Mastery
Father Time
Man of Iron

Juvenile Fillies Turf

It's hard to look past Lillie Langtry in this race, even with a full field. She has to go an extra furlong for the first time, but has been very consistent in all six starts. She had a nice, easy prep about a month ago and should be sitting on a huge effort.

I do like a couple of price horses here. Smart Seattle (8-1) has looked excellent on the track all week and I think a mile will suit her a little better than 8 ½ furlongs, in which she ran second in her last two. The Jessamine was the perfect prep for this race. She lost to House of Grace by a nose and will be a much better price.

Elusive Galaxy (20-1) ran pretty well in her prep, the Natalma at Woodbine, in her first try in North America and at a mile. She shipped to California last month and has settled in nicely for Ben Cecil. She also gets her second race with Bejarano aboard. A live 20-1 shot with Bejarano? I'll take a stab.

Lillie Langtry
Smart Seattle
Elusive Galaxy

I'll box all three in an exacta

Juvenile Fillies

Tough race. Blind Luck has to be used based on her Oak Leaf. Hollendorfer hasn't had a lot of success at the BC, but he is still one of the best in California and has been for a long time. She is definitely the one to beat.

That being said, I'm going for an upset here. She Be Wild (8-1) has done absolutely nothing wrong in four starts. She dominated at Arlington in three starts and ran big in the Alcibiades at Keeneland for her prep. Wayne Catalano has a good handle on 2-year-old fillies and he has a live one here. Leparoux gets the mount and she should stalk the pace and pounce on the leaders in the stretch.

She Be Wild
Blind Luck
Beautician

F&M Turf

There are many who believe Forever Together has lost a half-step. Not me. What's she done wrong? She was beaten nose in the Canadian and came flying at the end of one-mile First Lady after being 20 lengths out. The 1 ¼-mile distance is ideal for her, as we saw last year. Don't look past her. She's a champion and Sheppard will have her revved up.

I think Magical Fantasy has to be included on the bottom of tickets because of her success out here and Pure Clan is in great form. Rutherienne stretches out to 10 furlongs for the first time but she might enjoy the added distance for a piece.

Forever Together
Pure Clan
Rutherienne/Magical Fantasy

F&M Sprint

I'm a bit surprised at how many people think Ventura is going to get beat. She is a couple noses away from being undefeated in four grade I's this year. Her Woodbine Mile was sick. She won this race by four last year. She's a monster.

I'm not sure why I don't like Informed Decision as much; maybe because she hasn't been out here. She certainly is capable of pulling the minor upset.

I do like Evita Aregentina (20-1) to hit the board. What's she done? Well, she beat boys in the San Vicente over this course in February and became the first 3YO filly in 65 years to beat elders in the A Gleam two back. She is a bit inconsistent, but if she's on and gets a hot pace, watch out.

Ventura
Evita Argentina
Informed Decision

Ladies Classic

It's wide-open without Zenyatta. You can make a good case for any of them in here. Even Lethal Heat, the longest choice on the morning line, is in good form and likes this track. Distance is her issue.

I was sure Music Note was going to win this race a week ago. She has been off the charts good in New York in her last two and is probably the best horse in the race--on dirt. I know she ran a solid third in this race last year and there is no reason to believe she shouldn't run well again, but...

I am leaning toward Proviso (8-1), a 4-year-old filly who impressed me a lot in the Spinster in her first U.S. start. She was much the best despite her disqualification, proving she can handle synthetics. I'm hoping she gets even better. She's has had an aggressive 2009 campaign in Europe this year, including a third to Goldikova in August. She fits well here and will be a big number.

I also can make strong cases for Cocoa Beach and Rainbow View

Proviso
Music Note
Life Is Sweet/Cocoa Beach

Thoughts?

Woodbine Mile Weekend Analysis

jshandler — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 16:12:00 GMT

Between Woodbine, Belmont, and Louisiana Downs, this weekend has shaped up to be a very intriguing and deep graded stakes calendar. Let's try to make it a profitable one.

Woodbine

The Woodbine Mile was good to me last year, as I banged Rahy's Attorney at 12-1 and had the $700+ tri. Hopefully Sunday will produce the same kind of results, but I don't expect the prices to be as big. I can't get past Ventura here. I know the field this time around is much deeper and she has been off since April, but I expect her to run a big race. Look at her two efforts this season--lost by a nose to the best turf horse in the country, Gio Ponti, in the Kilroe Mile, and was beaten a head in the Madison by Informed Decision, who has won six of seven this year. She ran a winning type race on the yielding course in the 2008 Woodbine Mile and firm course on Sunday should benefit her even more.

Bribon was installed as the 5-2 favorite and he should be the biggest challenge to Ventura. The optional claimer he won at Saratoga was brilliant in his first turf start in more than a year, suggesting that he has found a new home on grass. He's won three in a row and a win here would make him a legitimate threat in the Breeders' Cup Mile, Goldikova and all. He's in the best form of his career.

I'll try Ventura for the minor upset and key Ventura and Bribon over all in a trifecta. It's a bit chalky but that's how I see it.

The Northern Dancer also came up a great race. It's tough to separate Marsh Side, Champs Elysees, Just As Well, Marchfield, Quijana, and even Musketier.

I made a nice score with Marchfield in the Sky Classic last month, but I think that was the perfect distance for him. He's won at 1 1/2 miles before and I see him running a nice race, but not for the top spot.

Marsh Side, Musketier, and Just As Well all finished runner-up to Gio Ponti as some point this season, and I expect one of them to win this thing. Now, it's just a matter of picking the right one. I'll lean toward Marsh Side, who won the Canadian International over this course last year. He's in his third start off a layoff after a failed try in Dubai. He nearly beat Gio in the Manhattan over a yielding course at 15-1 and could be an attractive price once again. This horse doesn't seem to get much respect at the windows.

I also like Just As Well, who seems to be at his best right now. But this is his first time at the distance so I can't take him to win.

I'm going to play Marsh Side to win, and box Marsh Side, Just As Well, Marchfield, and Musketier in exactas.

In the Canadian Stakes, how do you go against Forever Together? She was third in this race last year and towers over this field. Points of Grace, at the right price, would be the only horse I'd think about trying to beat her with.

Belmont

The Futurity may be the race that vaults D' Funnybone to the top of 2-year-old ranks, and establishes him as the early Derby favorite. His Saratoga Special was scary good and the connections couldn't be any higher on him. We'll see how he does at seven furlongs. He'll have to catch Discreetly Mine, who was huge in his maiden breaker at Saratoga on Aug. 22. Drawing the inside post could spell lights out for the rest of them. Soundman also has good speed though, and could pressure him up front.

I don't think it's a great betting race so I'll layoff, but for the record I'm taking D' Funnybone. My longshot pick would be Grand Rapport, who could benefit from a quick pace. Take a look at his maiden score at Saratoga in the mud. He was 16 lengths back after the opening quarter.

Worstcasescenario will be a popular pick in the Matron but I think there is chance for an upset here. I would box her with Southern Truth and Awesome Maria in exacta.

Rutherienne looks like a single in the Noble Damsel.

Louisiana

The Super Derby didn't come up especially strong. I like Blame, who should relish his second start at two turns. If it rains, he's even more attractive. I'd box him with Soul Warrior and Massone, who will be tough if he likes dirt.

Good luck this weekend. Who do you like?

Sprint Championship Could Be a Bunch of Bull

jshandler — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 16:41:00 GMT

As we have seen during our heated debates regarding Horse of the Year and 3-year-old filly champion, the Eclipse Awards voting certainly brings out some strong opinions in all of us. On this blog especially, people voice their opinions loud and clear, and without much consensus. It's the same way in the Blood-Horse office, as even us writers have vastly differing outlooks on many of the upcoming awards.

Take the Sprint championship for example. To me, there is only one deserving winner of this award: Benny the Bull. The 5-year-old was spectacular is all four of his races this season, including the Dubai Golden Shaheen in which he beat a deep field of world-class sprinters. Although his season and career were ultimately cut short due to injury and he was forced to miss the Breeders' Cup, I strongly believe his four stakes wins (three of them graded) were more than enough to earn the award.

To my surprise, when discussing this division with my co-workers Lenny Shulman and Evan Hammonds, they had vastly different opinions. The conversation went something like this:

JS: At least, we can all agree that Benny wins the sprint championship, right?

LS: No way. It has to go to Midnight Lute. Did you not see the Breeders' Cup? He ran six furlongs in 1:07!

JS: Yeah, but he only raced twice this year and only won once!

LS: It doesn't matter. He is the defending champion and somebody had to knock him off in the Breeders' Cup to take it away.

JS: Evan, please be the voice of reason here. Tell him Benny wins it. You can't give a horse an award based on ONE win!

EH: What about Ventura? She deserves strong consideration too. She won three graded stakes this year, including the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, and she beat Kip Deville and all but one of the boys in the Woodbine Mile.

JS: C'mon guys. Look at the entire body of work for the year, not just the last couple months. Benny won three graded stakes and probably beat the deepest sprint field this year.

LS: Midnight Lute, hands down. He's been the best for the last two years. You can't take it away from him. His Breeders' Cup was phenomenal.

EH: I don't know who I'm voting for yet, but I will bet you anything Lenny is right; Midnight Lute will win. I've seen too many of these. That's the way the voters will go.

JS: You guys are nuts. Did you watch the Dubai race, the Tru North or the Smile Sprint? He was absolutely spectacular with that closing kick! Why does the first half of the year always seem to get forgotten about in these awards? It's like all anyone cares about is the Breeders' Cup and the rest of the year doesn't matter.

LS: You've got a lot to learn kid.

JS: You guys are getting so old that you're losing your minds...

As you can see, us bloggers are not the only ones who argue about these awards. It happens everywhere. And, as always, we never settle anything.

So, what do you say? Benny, Lute or Ventura?

Can Kip Deville Be Beaten?

jshandler — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 18:06:00 GMT

Every racing fan has their favorite and most memorable moments. Last year, for me, it was the Woodbine Mile.

Who can forget the breathtaking rail move by Shakespeare, who came from eighth and 7 1/2 lengths back at the quarter-pole to nail Kip Deville in the final yards? It was truly one of the best late moves I have seen by a 6-year-old, and to do it after coming back from serious injury made it all the more remarkable. If you would like to see it again, here it is. I was sorry to see Shakespeare retire. When healthy, he was a monster.

The field isn't as large and wide-open for this year's Mile, and it is certainly going to be tough to beat Kip Deville. He is the top turf miler in North America, hands down. And he will have only seven rivals, with his main competition seemingly coming from a filly, Ventura. He is sure to be odds-on and won't offer much in the way of value. Is it worth playing against him?

Aside from Ventura, the other six challengers are all Woodbine locals. On paper, there is nothing in here that blows you away. Just Rushing seems to be the most logical one to challenge, as the 7-year-old gelding hasn't been out of the money in his last nine. But he has only one win to show for it, that coming last out in the grade II Play the King. He also never won at a mile, and his trainer, Sid Attard, admitted coming back in only two weeks will be very difficult.

Also coming out of the Play the King are runner-up Wollemi Pine and fourth-place Mulmur. Wollemi Pine, trained by Ian Black, is a closer who was running in allowance company up until two months ago. He'll need a brisk pace. Mulmur rallied well in the Play the King and won the Ontario Jockey Club two starts back. He comes from winning connections, so I give him an outside chance.

Palladio hasn't won in nearly 14 months.

Other than Ventura, who I will cover shortly, I give Black's other entry, Rahy's Attorney, the best chance for an upset. This 4-year-old gelding doesn't always win but is consistently around the money. He is 6-2-4 from 16 starts and more importantly, is 2-for-2 going a mile and has won five of eight starts on the Woodbine turf. Not bad. He has a graded stakes to his credit this year when taking the Connaught Cup while going 12 furlongs. He cuts back from the 1 1/4 Nijinsky last out, where he finished fourth but was beaten only three lengths. All three of the horses that beat him are entered in the grade I Northern Dancer, which is right before the Mile.

Ventura is a filly on the rise. She is a nose away from winning two in a row in graded action, both against very good company. How will she do against the boys? Well, if her times are any indication, she is right where she belongs. In fact, her final time of 1:32.75 in the grade I Just a Game in June was better than any mile time Kip Deville has ever run. This seems like her perfect distance and the spacing between races couldn't be any better. Throw in Garrett Gomez, who was aboard Shakespeare last year, and trainer Bobby Frankel, who has two Mile victories to his credit, and she should be right there.

Kip Deville has been lightly-raced by Rick Dutrow Jr in 2008. He has only two starts to his credit this season, as opposed to five this same time last year. Dutrow says he doesn't need any more than this, and judging by his Maker's Mark Mile, which came off a nearly six-month layoff, he is probably right. If Kip runs his race and is on the top of his game, he is clearly the best horse here. He is a three-time grade I winner and has beaten much tougher than this.

The Pick: It wouldn't shock me if (4) Kip Deville lost this race, but I don't think it is very likely. The problem is, he'll be odds-on. (8) Ventura is certainly capable here, but she won't offer great value either (likely to be 7-2 or 3-1). I'm going to play $10 across the board on (2) Rahy's Attorney, who is 12-1 on the morning-line, and also use him in a $1 trifecta key that will read like this: 2,4,8/2,4,8/all. That's a $36 ticket.

For the record, I like a Seaside Retreat/Quijano exacta in the Northern Dancer and The Niagara Queen to pull an upset in the Canadian Stakes. If you watched That Handicapping Show this week, you'll know I went with Jade's Revenge in the Turfway Park Fall Championship in the other Breeders' Cup Challenge race.

Good luck!!