Guest blog: The King and the Queen

re: Guest blog: The King and the Queen

Footlick — Sat, 14 Aug 2010 04:52:51 GMT

ruffianruns- Sorry this is so late but I really have a hard time participating. I remember last year that both the Sheets and Thoro-graph admitted that they did not have a clue how to give her races an accurate speed figure because the paces, not Zenyatta, were just too slow. Randy Moss also said the same thing. And he pointed out when Zenyatta got a decent pace in the BCC her figure went up accordingly. So, I do not believe you can get an accurate figure on a horse who runs like Zenyatta if there isn't a legitimate pace in front of her. You can only go by how she finishes her races and how much energy she used up. As far as I know speed figures aren't designed to do that. But I could be wrong.

re: Guest blog: The King and the Queen

Householder — Fri, 13 Aug 2010 16:44:32 GMT

Unless one is planning on calling up Lady's Secret one would have to give Zenyatta a shot at 1 1/4. The 2009 Breeder's Cup Ladies winner and former stable mate Life is Sweet and more recently St. T obviously either tried to close with her or held back trying to get the jump on her at the top of the lane. She's spotting you 12-15 lengths so if you can crack a 46 half mile and keep on going for 1 1/4 you could potentially outrun her. I can't think of any contenders who want to go that far let alone have that kind of "Iron Lady" speed over a distance of ground. Plus Zenyatta has spent some time on a 1 mile oval. Watch her momentum carry 4-9 wide on the turn or her duck and weave like a cutting horse...and then there is the LONG stretch at Chruchill. One of the more entertaining races was her first Clement Hirsh. About the 1/8 pole she starts to "loaf" once she hits the "lead." She then spots Model about 5 lengths in front of her and "downshifts just inhailing her. She has a lot of "funky" behaviors that her trainer reportedly no longer fights her on. Last out she shows up with a bunch of cotton stuffed in both ears!

re: Guest blog: The King and the Queen

Kay — Fri, 13 Aug 2010 07:06:25 GMT

Livesoutwest:

I dunno, man... the turf course may be too close to the synthetic. Some of that plastic may blow onto the turf course. My dear Jess is a VERY cautious fellow!

You do make a point about West Coasters being able to see Rachel. The East bleats about not being able to see Zenyatta, when it's an incredibly rare occurrence that we get to see ANYONE. After all, this isn't the 80s anymore...

re: Guest blog: The King and the Queen

Zen's Auntie — Fri, 13 Aug 2010 04:28:26 GMT

Livesoutwest, I literally just got chills thinking of all 3 mares on turf in one race.

re: Guest blog: The King and the Queen

Livesoutwest — Fri, 13 Aug 2010 02:46:30 GMT

Regarding seeing Zenyatta on turf, I think she would be GREAT on turf. In fact, the ideal finish to the year would be Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra running in the Matriarch at Hollywood Park. They would need to restore it to its former distance of 1 1/8, but that shouldn't be an issue. Think about it, a neutral surface for both. Zenyatta wouldn't have to ship. Jackson wouldn't have "plastic tracks" as an excuse. And we West Coast fans would finally get a chance to see Rachel Alexandra. Maybe Goldikova's connections could even be enticed to stick around the US for the race and make it the matchup of the decade.

re: Guest blog: The King and the Queen

jayjay — Fri, 13 Aug 2010 01:53:39 GMT

Billy billy billy : If you're going to use Baffert to justify dirt vs synthetic, you shouldn't use the LAL argument. Baffert may think he is better on dirt but that is not the reason he shipped him east. LAL is a 3 yr old, a TC top contender before the TC. I would think that that would be the MAIN reason he shipped LAL east.

Thanks for the beyer speed figures post Footlick and Laz! I'm there will be some (Draynay) that will ignore it and bet against the Queen. He'll still bet on horses with top beyer figures in their previous races because he is Draynay, he doesn't learn. LOL

Jason : I'm withdrawing the bet about the blog, let's change it to $100.00 and wearing a pink dress and teal hat in next year's KY Derby :) LOL

re: Guest blog: The King and the Queen

TradingPlaces — Thu, 12 Aug 2010 21:48:53 GMT

Laz,

Your welcome, I did a research paper on synthetics once and found out a lot of interesting things. I don't know how many others knew it, but synthetics have an asphalt base under the 7in of compact synthetic matirial. You can go on Polytrack's main site and go under installation and it tells you in there. It is all very interesting.

I think in sand or something loser, a person does get more of a workout, and the unstableness of sand does allow for risks of twisting an ankle. But, if all a horses impact is concentrated to one spot and that only one spot, I would imagine the stress on the joints and muscles would be more, due to the concentrated shock.

re: Guest blog: The King and the Queen

ruffianruns — Thu, 12 Aug 2010 21:16:44 GMT

Footlick,

Thanks for posting the main points of the "Down the Stretch They Come" blog. When Paula recommended it, I went and checked it out and was blown away. Right there Beyer explains that for horses that start out slow and finish fast "speed figures would be useless as a handicapping tool." I repeat: USELESS AS A HANDICAPPING TOOL.

As you show, Zen's LAST mile in the BC Classic was very fast, just off the track record for a mile. BTW, forgive a stupid question, where do you get the info on HER individual split times? I have the race chart and her PPs, but don't know where to look.

Now LAZMANNICK and Footlick,

This is what I was trying to get at in my post from last night. It does seem like we could figure out a way to apply a Beyer to Zen's run in the Classic by looking at the last mile time and adding some variant or something.

Up front speed horses, like QR or RA, come out fast and tail off. Closers do their "tailing off" in the beginning of the race and then speed up. It just doesn't seem like it would be too hard to apply a Speed Figure to closers if you look at their final quarter or half-mle times. Laz has been saying this.

BUT - HERE'S WHERE ALL OF THIS BREAKS DOWN. Horses like Zenyatta, horses that do just enough to win, are only going to run just past the ability of their competition. Zenyatta has done that every time (except on dirt, where she wins by larger margins). Even in the Hirsch, Mike was talking about her loafing on the lead. She gets in front and she's done. There are plenty of examples of great horses doing this. Didn't Whiteley say that Damascus loafed on the lead?

Sea the Stars was a little like this - he couldn't hit the front too quickly because he had a tendency to gear down. Here's an excerpt from the Racing Post after his Arc win last year:

"As they turned for home [STS] was stuck behind Vision D'Etat. Mick Kinane switched him inside. A gap opened up, he sped between the fillies Stacelita and Dar Re Mi at double-time and quickly shot three lengths clear. And then, in true Sea The Stars-style, he knew he had done enough and eased down in the final strides to secure a two-length success over Youmzain."

Sea the Stars was pushed by great competition and he outran it - that's why he was rated so highly. Zenyatta scored her best Beyer in the Classic because she was pushed to get there by better competition. Well, she didn't really look "pushed" to me, she easily got there, but, again, she did what she needed to do.

And look what she did in the Ladies' Classic in '08! A 1:46:85 mile and an eighth?

Beyers simply cannot capture horses that run to just better than their competition.

re: Guest blog: The King and the Queen

Kay — Thu, 12 Aug 2010 21:00:26 GMT

Diane J:

“I guess Rachel set the bar last year by racing (and defeating) males three times - can no other female horse now be considered great unless she steps out of her division and races males? And if so, what is the magic number - once, twice, three times, etc? Zenyatta has raced males once, so that doesn't count at all?”

The magic number is “whatever Zenyatta does plus one.” If she hasn’t impressed people yet, I honestly don’t think she’s going to. Some minds are just snapped shut. And the CHRB made the California bias even easier by installing the synthetic tracks. Now, it’s apparently fine for people to be nasty and derisive towards California racing because of the tracks. Because also, I guess all dirt tracks are wonderful and perfect and made of God’s magic and angel’s tears.

Laz:

Regarding Quality Road getting separation from the field:

“Actually that’s a great point. I doubt Quality Road can be rated and win a race like the BCC. His best race is with fast fractions, either setting them or sitting just off the pace. Slow or moderate fractions and he’ll be cooked. And don’t for one second think that Blame and Zenyatta will be the only quality closers in the BCC. LAL can rate and move late as well as others. It’s interesting to see how Pletcher strategizes the Woodward.”

The ONLY way any horse in the Classic will be able to hold off Zenyatta is to get that kind of separation. Quality Road did it in the Donn, but he didn’t do it in the Met Mile and he certainly didn’t do it in the Whitney. Rachel did it all last year, but she has only done it once this year, two starts ago. That’s what they tried to do with St Trinians in the Vanity – get separation at the head of the lane. And she did it, too. But Zenyatta STILL ran her down, without using all of those gears. And that’s at 9F. And that’s carrying nine pounds more than the runner-up, and going wide. With a much slower pace than we’re likely to see in the Classic. I honestly think that ALL these guys know that’s the only tactic that can work. You can’t close on her, for sure. She’ll always be coming at you. I think a horse is going to have to freak in the Classic to beat her. There’s going to have to be some horse who puts everyone to sleep and then accelerates like a freak off the turn and opens up some distance.

But that’s kind of a longshot. The pace will have to fall apart and leave a quality speed horse alone out there. But I can’t imagine it falling apart for the entire race. At some point in a 10F race, somebody is going to test the front-runner. And there’s also the danger of TWO of these horses in there – Quality Road and Rachel. They won’t be far off from each other. One isn’t likely to shake the other off. This means that the pace will quicken a lot sooner than they want it to. Lookin At Lucky and Rail Trip will run at them, then Blame comes, and that sets it up well for Zenyatta.

People are just looking at the results of her races, at where she is at the end and at the final time. They’re not looking at what’s happening inside of those races. They do that at their own peril.

Regarding Zenyatta not traveling. Shipping TO Oaklawn wasn’t the problem. It was shipping BACK. That’s one good reason why they’re leery of shipping to Belmont. This would be the last prep before the most important race of the year. Why mess with that? And if you had prepared a horse a certain way, then you won the biggest race, what would possibly make you prepare the horse a completely different way towards the same goal?

re: Guest blog: The King and the Queen

LAZMANNICK — Thu, 12 Aug 2010 20:34:05 GMT

TradingPlaces

Interesting. First of all I don't really understand soft tissues in a horse or what causes injuries based on them, but it is something I have thought about from time to time because they are a major issue. My thinking is that when pushing off (and maybe even landing) if there is any slippage at all would it put additional or prolonged stress on joints and tendons, etc. Personally, I have no clue as to the traction of synthetics when compared to grass or dirt, but I feel there must be some differences. Hopefully there will continue to be studies on the matter. Thanks for the info.

re: Guest blog: The King and the Queen

TradingPlaces — Thu, 12 Aug 2010 19:18:55 GMT

Laz,

It's actually the oppisite. The hooves don't slip at all when they hit the surface of the synthetic, they just sort of stick. The give that the dirt and turf surfaces provide when the foot acutally slides a bit is what actually relieves some of the stress. Think about which feels better to you, run while running in wood or asphalt, where your legs don't move because the grip between you sneakers and the surface is so high your legs don't really slide, or running in grass or a dirt where you have a good grip, but your feet also are able to move some. I'm not comparing asphalt or wood to synthetics just the way the feet slide and how each surface allows for movement.

re: Guest blog: The King and the Queen

ZENYATTA RULES — Thu, 12 Aug 2010 17:59:20 GMT

To everyone who says Zenyatta's no good and can't win the Classic, obviously you don't really believe that. If you really felt that way you wouldn't be talking about her at all because she'd be irrelevant. And what happened to your love of "the Beast" Quality Road? He gets beat by a nose and nobody's talking much about him any more. But everyone's still talking about Zenyatta.

re: Guest blog: The King and the Queen

Zookeeper — Thu, 12 Aug 2010 17:42:36 GMT

Zen's Auntie,

If you owned Zenyatta, you wouldn't do many of the things you say you would do. From reading your comments, I have come to the conclusion that you are a far more caring person than that. :)

re: Guest blog: The King and the Queen

LAZMANNICK — Thu, 12 Aug 2010 17:13:24 GMT

Skipaway might have won HOY in ‘98 despite losing the BCC, but look at his record leading up to the JCGC and the Classic……7 consecutive wins including 5 G1’s, a 2.00 Gold cup win, a win carrying 130 lbs. in the Mass Cap and receiving a 121 Beyer. Even if Zen entered in and won the PE, her record this year would still pale in comparison the Skippy’s ’98 season. The only chance she has for HOY is a BCC win.

re: Guest blog: The King and the Queen

Zookeeper — Thu, 12 Aug 2010 17:12:57 GMT

The effects of shipping across the country (or abroad) are not immediately apparent. A horse may be ok to run in the race he/she was shipped for, but after the return trip (and sometimes before, as illustrated by LAL's second illness) some horses just aren't 100% for quite a while. It doesn't work that way for all horses. Many thrive on it, others not so much. Would it not be wiser to leave a horse's travel plans to the people who know EVERYTHING about the horse?... not just it's gender, color, ancestry or race record.

On the subject of what the great Charlie Whittingham would do with Zenyatta... sadly, he passed away before I had a chance to ask him and he certainly isn't channeling his thoughts thru me from beyond the grave but, from reading his biography, I got the distinct impression that other people's wants and wishes had LITTLE (if any) bearing on his decisions regarding a horse HE trained. :)

Regarding Zenyatta racing on turf, do we know whether they have tried her on it or not? If I was a reporter, I would love to ask John Shirreffs about it. It would be very interesting to find out his thoughts or experience on the subject. Jason???

re: Guest blog: The King and the Queen

Mike Relva — Thu, 12 Aug 2010 16:59:55 GMT

LAZMANNICK

I agree w/ you.

re: Guest blog: The King and the Queen

Ted from LA — Thu, 12 Aug 2010 16:50:07 GMT

You think Baffert can get John Terranova to assist while she's in New York?

The Rock 10 Aug 2010 9:27 PM

I didn't realize he trained horses too. He was great in Saturday Night Fever and Grease.

re: Guest blog: The King and the Queen

Householder — Thu, 12 Aug 2010 16:34:33 GMT

Fractions and final times are a little mis-leading. Pull up the list of world record holders at the various distances and it's largly a "who's-who" of unknowns.

County Fair horses will run splits of 44, 59, 1:35 at times.

It's like compairing the little league home run leader to the Toronto Blue jays.

Zenyatta can close into a 3/4 split of 1:15 or 58 and change so you decide what tatic to use against her. No one seems to have come up with a viable plan yet.

Remember Hysterical Lady...she was simply going to be too fast for Zen and went off at even money. That was 10-12 races ago. Wether it's a "well rested" Music Note, or a BC winner like Ginger Punch, the fact of the matter is all who have touted her "first loss" up to this point have been wrong. It's para-mutual baby! Thanks for your money. I just think Jess Jackson needs to man up and finally tell the racing world that he was scared to death and never had any intentions of racing Zenyatta.

re: Guest blog: The King and the Queen

Mike Relva — Thu, 12 Aug 2010 16:32:57 GMT

JASON

Got only one question? Do you think it's a good omen knowing that you have the"Draynay blessing" for the Classic ? Not a good sign! lol

re: Guest blog: The King and the Queen

Zen's Auntie — Thu, 12 Aug 2010 16:26:52 GMT

nice peice on ND Laz. There are none so blind as those who refuse to see. LOL

re: Guest blog: The King and the Queen

Zen's Auntie — Thu, 12 Aug 2010 16:20:42 GMT

Nice information Foot. Closers dont work with Beyer numbers. which folks place too much emphasis on in my opinion anyway.

Gun Bow I enjoyed your Piece on synthetic tracks. While haying (lots of time for the mind to wander) yesterday was thinking along the same lines with Synthetic surfaces found at legitimate tracks in the US and Canada.

With the stir to try and make Racing more popular and bring the fan base back the push for "kinder" engineered surfaces will continue - I cant say if they are truely less likely to cause injury, I have read opinions both ways, but I know synthetic surfaces are different to run a horse on that dirt (and worse) that each Syntheic surface is slightly different.

Seeing the trend towards a "kinder gentler racing" I would not be the least bit surprized to see a push towards engineered surfaces. I do think standardizing the surfaces is very good Idea but industry competition may hinder that effort.

Jason, you may need stronger drugs than mere BP meds if you are going to stand behind Dray is more Objective that GunBow. Im afraid your not joking?!

Please, tell me how I can get in on the bet with you as I like Zen in the clsssic. I find it interesting that you would take the "field". The field is taken in cases were the opponent is viewed as "Much the best" of the Field. You must not have much confidence in any one other horse getting the job done - I guess I dont "Blame" you. (my BCC btw exacta pick is Z then BLame) I'd rather see you make a pick and I will take Z and I'll send you (or somebody else I dont care, 'cept Dray I heard he just lost his job at Jet blue) the put-up or shut-up money to hold, how bout that? $100 to win. You must have my e-mail I'm serious.

Fuzzi I can see you get horses. There are many things about her last race I thought were a little different - and instumental in her learning curve - her ability to lie closer, deal with the crawliest paces, and how she enjoyed keeping just her head in front of RI It will help her in the classic if a colt draws up on her and gives her the eye - not that a dominante 6 yr old 17 + H Diva of a mare would ever take any crap from any young stallion.

Just for the record - as a racing and a Z fan Nothing and I mean nothing would have made me happier than to see Z racing at Saratoga or CD or even Belmont where the turns are Made for her and if you look at her closing fractions she would have still swallowed up the competition. She may not even have stayed unbeated and I would NOT care one lick. But maybe Thank God I dont own her.

She lives and is loved by her family in California the climate is better and she likes it there so she is self handicapped by crappy poly track surfaces and no competion.

If she was mine I would take her everwhere as I would be so PROUD people all over the country would have come to see her race she'd have been ZEEbiscuit and everyone of us would be gushing because there would be no room for science fiction and doubt. BUT she probably wouldnt be unbeaten. that kind of crap is hard on horses and a hard schedule gets the greatest horses of all time beat. Still, Z would have kicked every one of the best horses asses in the world at todays classic distances name any one and she could have done it. At least once on evey surface. I know this mare can run on Turf.

Thank God, she doesnt belong to me becuse she is obviously happy just like it is. The kind of pridefull stuff I would have subjected her too causes ulcers and breakdown.

Every Life has a path and Z is lucky to have had a pampered adored racehorses life. not every 60K keenland yearling well bred or not gets this kind of shot. I see 250K at auction horses in the PP's racing at 30 to 40 K again and agian.

It sure seems these are slower maturing types of horses (Blame, Z) that weigh more and put more stress onthemselves when they run. If someone doesnt handle horses more carefully we will have all 2, 3 & 4 yr old races as none will last to be 5 or 6.

I'll take GRASSY in the Sword Dancer for Clemente.

And Last a prayer to the Families and friends of Scoop Vessle and the Cannell's

re: Guest blog: The King and the Queen

MonicaV — Thu, 12 Aug 2010 16:05:45 GMT

Footlick,

You're right about Charlie. I'm very biased when it comes to Charlie. I think he was the greatest trainer ever and if he had trained Z, she would have run on the turf. He loved to put horses on the turf. He tried it with Ferdinand and said Ferdinand told him that stuff was for sheep!

He was a very patient trainer and always did what was best for his horses. I was lucky enough to know Charlie and visit his SA barn.

He was a great guy and a great horseman.

re: Guest blog: The King and the Queen

Liveoutwest — Thu, 12 Aug 2010 15:53:48 GMT

Chances are the BC Classic winner will be HOY this year, regardless of the winning margin, unless someone runs into significant trouble in the race. If Blame or Lookin' At Lucky were hopelessly blocked while Zenyatta had clear sailing and then one of them made a heroic run to just miss, their strength of competition throughout the year would be considered. I'm just sayin, it doesn't have to be that way. Flash back to 1998 when Skip Away won the award despite losing the Classic. Let Zenyatta win the Beldame over the best females in the country and she won't necessarily need to win the Classic to be HOY. She can wrap it up early, just like Rachel did last year.

Yeah, I know planes fly both ways. And for those who stated that it made no sense for Zenyatta to fly out for the Beldame last year when the BC was at Santa Anita, okay point taken. But this year, the shoe's on the other foot. What motivation do the trainers of the other top females have this year to fly out West one race before the BC to compete for a cheaper purse on a synthetic surface when the BC is on dirt this year? It's all to Zenyatta's benefit to win a race against tougher horses, and prep on a surface (dirt) that the BC will be run on.

re: Guest blog: The King and the Queen

Billy's Empire — Thu, 12 Aug 2010 15:53:28 GMT

I do agree, Footlick, your post was excellent in terms of summing up both European racing as well as deep closers. Nice work.

re: Guest blog: The King and the Queen

LAZMANNICK — Thu, 12 Aug 2010 15:05:01 GMT

Livesoutwest

Forget about HOY.....Who cares. If you win 20 in a row, two consecutive BCC's against top males, and a BC Distaff, what are people going to remember you for? I think HOY would be secondary and hardly get a mention.....It's the 20 races undefeatedd, the two BCC's and three BC wins that every one would talk about. And if she does this and even wins the BCC by a nose over Blame and he gets HOY, his career would forever be denegrated and he would be known as the horse that didn't deserve the award. and believe it or not, even rachel's HOY win lst year would receive even more criticism.

As far as the horses that Blame and Quality Road beat, I don't see any of them threatening the Big Mare any time soon. She might not beat them by five, it's not her style, but if they ever really got into her and made her go all out, they might not even finish within ten lengths of her.