Division Leaders

re: Division Leaders

Huh — Tue, 02 Sep 2008 00:30:38 GMT

My Division Leaders:

CLASSIC:

1. Curlin

2. Commentator

3. Duke of Marmalade/Henrythenavigator

DISTAFF:

1. Ginger Punch

2. Zenyatta

3. Proud Spell

TURF:

1. Red Rocks

2. Spirit One

3. Gio Ponti

F&M TURF:

1. Mauralakana

2. Forever Together

3. J' Ray

SPRINT:

1. Street Boss

2. Visionaire

3. First Defence

MILE:

1. Kip Deville

2. Whatsthescript

3. Daytona

JUV. FILLIES:

1. Mani Bhavan

JUVENILE:

1. Desert Party

2. Vineyard Haven

3. Notonthesamepage

DIRT MILE:

1. Divine Park

TURF SPRINT:

1. Mr. Nightlinger

re: Division Leaders

Householder — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 01:48:41 GMT

I've never weighed in on the whole Big Brown vs. Curlin and who is better. But after Well Armed's performance in the Pacific Classic in my opinion Culin's stock just soared. Well Armed rates a bit and ends up just 1 length off the eventual Pacific Classic winner Go Between after slow fractions of 47.36, 112.20, and 137.06. Go Between now seems poised as the Breeder's Cup Classic favorite and rightfully so. Based on Well Armed's performance in the Dubai World Cup...this puts Curlin 8 lengths in front of this crew (Go Between, Well Armed, Mast Track).

re: Division Leaders

Paula S — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 16:12:20 GMT

I don't understand why if it's "win an your in" why an owner would have to pay over $200,000 to get in the Breeder's Cup. The horse just won the race and won $300,000 and to get into the BC they would have to spend all they just earned. Seems a little much.

re: Division Leaders

Householder — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 23:29:34 GMT

AEM...Love your comarison of Zenyatta to Ruffian! Perhaps her connections will try the boys and then we can draw comparisons to Lady's Secret! She is simply the best thing in training and as Trevor Denman called it in the Hircsh "Simply Poetry in Motion!" As for the BC Classic. The winner is going to come out of the Pacific Classic. Forget about Culin and BB.

re: Division Leaders

Mike S — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 20:28:22 GMT

Hi Johar! LOLOLOL! No, I don't own TIZNOW. However, I think those horses I mentioned are top class runners who all love the synthetic tracks, so I give them a big shot on Breeders Cup day. Maybe TIZDEJAVU is the most unlikely, though, because he'll be going a mile with the fastest milers in the world, and the fractions will be fast all the way around. I'm not saying he can't compete in a race like that one, but that, so far, he hasn't. I think the Turf Mile will go to KIP DEVILLE or maybe one of the Europeans (HENRYTHENAVIGATOR, if he shows up), but I'm just wishing and hoping that TIZEDJAVU wins.

In all honesty, though, I can totally see WELL ARMED or COLONEL JOHN winning the Classic; TOUGH TIZ'S SIS finishing 3rd in the Distaff (can't see her beating ZENYATTA); BEAR NOW taking that 7 furlong filly & mare sprint (distance is perfect for her, I think).

And I can absolutely see TIZ NOW TIZ THEN winning the Pennsylvania Derby. No kidding.

I don't own TIZNOW. I'm not Kenny Troutt, Bill Casner, Michael Cooper or Pam Ziebarth. But I had the pleasure of meeting Mr. Casner, and talking to him for an hour, during morning workouts on the day of the Santa Anita Derby. He's an intelligent, good-natured and friendly man. He and his wife are very fine people.

re: Division Leaders

Charles Enderle — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 16:26:48 GMT

forget poly-track. I've been a player over forty years, and now you ruined tbe breedeer's cup for two years. I wrote the blood horse that was not published, why horses break down much more then in the past. pinhookers take two year olds and try to break fractions in one eight of a mile. 11 seconds then 10 and not I hear 9 seconds and change is the fade. two year olds should be trained differently. remeber the green monkey, his price and his unprofitable form.

re: Division Leaders

JOSE93 — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 14:03:12 GMT

Do you not think that synthetics is the reason Henrythenavigator is running in the Classic after George Washington? Synthetics suit grass horses better than Dirt horses. The Breeders Cup should allocate a championship day on Synthetics at some other point in the year. Is there any need for Grass races this year at the Breeders Cup with a synthetic track in use? I'm sure January sounds good enough. Neither the Triple Crown tracks nor New York tracks will be installing a synthetic track anytime soon.

re: Division Leaders

jose93 — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 13:38:50 GMT

Zenyatta should go for the BC Classic as she'd win it.

The surface is very important to the race and there's no doubt that Curlin will not be as good on Synthetics as Dirt.

Henrythenavigator is over hyped and may not stay 10f. Kip Deville is the best miler in the world and will beat any European horses that turn up for the BC Mile. If Zarkava turns up for the BC Filly And Mare Turf then the American horses shouldn't turn up. As for Red Rocks being the best in the American Turf division, that's worrying. There at least 30 horses who are better than him in Europe over a Mile And a Half. He struggled to win what American's would call an "allowance race" at Lingfield Park earlier in the year. Big Brown is a Turf horse and should be aimed at the BC Turf.

re: Division Leaders

Jon — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 12:19:51 GMT

I would guess that the next race BB's connections would have chosen for him might have been the West Virginia Derby had it not already been run. Can they shop around and find easier spots for their horse so he won't have any competition? What are they so afraid of anyway?

re: Division Leaders

draynot — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 12:12:35 GMT

All I hear from the Big Ole Browneye's connections lately are quack, quack, quack. So the Woodward "doesn't quite fit" and now they acknowledge they are afraid to run again at Belmont in the Jockey Gold Cup because Brownie can't handle the atmosphere there.

It's not written in stone or a rule that the Breeders Cup Classic winner is automatically the HOY. In fact I'm not sure every Classic winner has been chosen for that honor. This year they are going to have to decide HOY based on who they have faced. It's apparent the Breeders Cup Classic is going to come up as probably the weakest field in some time if not ever so that is not going to decide anything.

Based on competition it's a no brainer. Curlin has travelled the world and faced the best mature older horses out there. The Big Ole Browneye hasn't faced anything so far outside of 3 yr olds and for the most part thay have been weak, immature, and not fully developed. This years addition of the Classic is going to be a watered down version so that won't help his argument there.

Assuming both horses win out and in either case that is not a guarantee, I have to wonder why Brownies connections are willing to forfiet the HOY a when they have ample opportunity to face Curlin on dirt where they should meet to decide. To take the title away at this point and once again assuming they both win out just won't happen. To be the best you have to beat the best and Duckie Dutrow and Company aren't willing to take that chance. They talk a good game but haven't backed it up at all. As a challenger if you want the title go where the Champ is and take it. It's as simple as that. Curlin's connections keep offering up that opportunity and the Big Ole Browneye's keep ducking it. .

re: Division Leaders

RJPPDP — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 04:34:01 GMT

I love your rankings. I am excited when I show up to Santa Anita and see the females run. The lineup if they all show up will make it the feature race on Friday. I wish Zenyatta would run against the boys in the classic because I feel this might be the year with Curlin not coming and mediocre year for classic runners for a filly to win. Think about Macho Again for the classic. I think he might be coming around at the end of the year.

re: Division Leaders

Johar — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 04:06:49 GMT

I think Mike S is a not-so-subtle TIZNOW fan.....

Tiz Now Tiz Then in the PA Derby

Well Armed/Colonel John 1-2 in the Classic

Tough Tiz's Sis placed in the Distaff

Tizdejavu in the Mile.

Bear Now in the fillie's mile.

Mike S, do you own Tiznow?

re: Division Leaders

Jason Shandler — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 01:40:50 GMT

Julie L: I'll write a blog about this later in the week, but my initial reaction to this whole thing is that I agree with Iavarone. They are eyeing the Classic, which is where championships are always decided. The timing of the Woodward and Jockey Gold Cup is not right for Big Brown (although I hope they at least pick a tough spot for him in mid-september). Jackson needs to come to grips with the fact that Santa Anita has synthetic. Its good enough for Henrythenavigator to come over. More on this (annoying) saga later...

re: Division Leaders

Mike S — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 00:00:50 GMT

Since the connections of BIG BROWN are ducking CURLIN I hope they do take him to the Pennsylvania Derby because he's going to get beat by TIZ NOW TIZ THEN. Just you watch.

My Breeders Cup predictions so far:

CLASSIC: Since CURLIN isn't coming (he will win, if he does) I'll go with a 1-2 for Winstar Farm, with WELL ARMED and COLONEL JOHN. BIG BROWN (if he even shows up) will be a lot like WAR EMBLEM in the Belmont Stakes and Pacific Classic - a well beaten, overrated favorite.

DISTAFF: ZENYATTA, of course, with a photo for 2nd between GINGER PUNCH, HYSTERICALADY and TOUGH TIZ's SIS.

SPRINT: STREET BOSS

TURF MILE: TIZDEJAVU in an upset over KIP DEVILLE.

FILLIES SPRINT: BEAR NOW (7 furlongs is perfect for her).

TURF: RED ROCKS (unless some better European comes over).

FILLY & MARE TURF: MAURALAKANA

re: Division Leaders

BIGBADBROWNFAN — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 00:00:30 GMT

How come no one mentioned Bustin Stones or Harlem Rocker?

re: Division Leaders

Brian A. — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 23:42:17 GMT

I agree with your decision to rate Ginger Punch above Zenyatta for now. I've seen both race in person and love both. Zenyatta is a freak, she takes on all comers, and toys with them. Ginger Punch just keeps getting better and better. I don't think she was quite at her best in the Apple Blossom, but she's become a monster now. Her last victory was so guttsy, you can't get much more impressive than that.

It would be great to see Music Note enter and win the Travers, but looks like she'll be heading to the Alabama. Either way, she'd probably win.

This has to be one of the strongest years for all female divisions of racing in a long time. The competition come Breeders Cup day will be breathtaking. Can't wait to see Hystericallady run again.

re: Division Leaders

Slew.em.All — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 23:03:26 GMT

Don't forget about Casino Drive!..yeah,that's right.Casino Drive!..to do what he did in the Peter Pan Stakes in only his 2nd start,while shipping from Japan and having to quarentine for 2months+ is a sign of a Very Top Quality horse..He's making his way towards Santa Anita for a prep,then onto the BC Classic if all goes well,can't wait..The reason he hasn't raced since being scratched from the Belmont Stakes is because Japanese horses must be quarentined for 2months before being allowed to ship out of the country,and 1month when shipping to Japan.

re: Division Leaders

AEM — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 21:52:28 GMT

Zenyatta/Ginger Punch.....Its EARLY (7 races) in the game (and I don't want to putforth any heresy), but Zenyatta is starting to remind me of the great Ruffian. Based on what we've seen (evidence) so far, and if she stays healthy, she could become one of the great female thoroughbreds' of all time. Time and racing will ultimately tell the tale, but she is clearly a very, very special horse.

re: Division Leaders

Texas Fan — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 21:00:20 GMT

derbyme - There is no gaurantee that Midnight Lute will run again. He is in *training* right now, having not raced since November for a various of reasons, among them soreness. He may not make a successful comeback, which will be horrible for all of his fans, but after being off for already almost 9 months, it is a very real possibility.

re: Division Leaders

Jason Shandler — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 18:57:09 GMT

Derbyme: What could be the difference between Ginger Punch, Kip Deville and Curlin as compared to Midnight Lute??? Hmmmm...Let's see. Oh, I know. Midnight Lute hasn't raced this year! Perhaps that is why I left him off my list.

re: Division Leaders

derbyme — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 18:46:10 GMT

Obviously Zenyatta is #1 for the Distaff.

I'd be shocked if Gio Ponti can go 12f in top company w/ his pedigree. Court Vision is no monster. Winchester is the 3-y-old to include. His Secretariat was unbelievable.

You leave Ginger Punch, Curlin, and Kip Deville in the top spot, but you don't give a mention to Midnight Lute?

Commentator has as much chance of going 10 in a big field on synthetic as I do. Student Council is made for 10f on synth.

Red Giant? J'Ray? How about Crossing the Line or Whatsthescript? How about Ventura for either of those races. J'Ray is a Grade 3 horse. Pure Clan, Country Star, Wait a While are true Grade 1 10f fillies.

re: Division Leaders

Jason Shandler — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 16:22:14 GMT

Good call to those of you who mentioned Midnight Lute. Hopefully he will be ready to defend his title by late October.

re: Division Leaders

CV — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 16:16:50 GMT

Have we heard anything about Crossing the Line for the BCM? If he can get back to last year's form he will be tough to beat.

re: Division Leaders

Alex — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 15:51:53 GMT

Thanks for the analysis Jason. After factoring in that the Europeans aren't rated as of yet and that its still too early to even think about the 2 year olds, I will watch the races one by one and set myself up for a last minute cram session the nights before the Breeder's Cup. Too much information to digest over hypothetical fields for races 2 1/2 months away. Serenity now!

re: Division Leaders

Bryce Be Quick — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 15:23:59 GMT

When Jason allows under "turf" "Don't forget about: Any European", well, in the wake of Arlington, were ever truer handicapping words spoken. Hopefully, we will get to see arguably the best horse in the world, the Irish turfer Duke of Marmalade, foaled in 2004 and Buckpasser 4X Sire's Dam and even more excitingly for us pedigree nuts, the Dam's Dam as well.