O' Shooting Star

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blessing — Mon, 01 Nov 2010 23:18:37 GMT

can someone please tell me when the next shooting star will happen?

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SPLITS OF 12 — Tue, 31 Aug 2010 01:06:12 GMT

For Kent to say Paddy O' Prado is the best 3 year-old by far is a bit outlandish. I think Paddy has dominated the three-year old turf scene, with great ease so far. But I also feel, he's schooled a weak division of 3-year-old turfers. I can't see him beating older horses like Chinchon, Gio Ponti, or even The Usual Q.T., later on in the season at Churchill. Plus, if he does go in the Turf Classic like some have been mentioning, he'll have to face top European horses as well. It's a tough task trying older in the Breeders Cup, perhaps he should try older first, before entering those waters.

In my opinion Lookin at Lucky is the best 3-year old in the country. His win in the Preakness. And his dominating victory in the Haskell, were ultra impressive. He displayed pure grit, heart, determination and dominance in his last two races. The son of Smart Strike is all heart, he's what us racetrackers call, a real racehorse! If you put Paddy o' Prado on a fast dirt track, and match him up with Lucky, he would have a hard time keeping up, as evident in the Preakness. If you look at the Kentucky Derby more closely, maybe Paddy O' Prado's third place finish wasn't as impressive as once perceived. Look at the way Super Saver, and Ice Box have raced since the Derby. It makes LAL's Derby nightmare more like Lookin at an Abberation. As for Super Saver and Ice Box, perhaps their finishes were more of a fluke.

Take notice of how Paddy O' Prado's success has been on the Turf, not dirt. My assertion to why he's had more success than the top two finishers of the Derby is because he's had to use less energy in Turf races, than he would've had to, if he was still racing on the dirt. The Kentucky Derby's sloppy conditions, which produced a final quarter in 27 and change showed just how taxing the Churchill Strip was on runners that day. Remember Paddy was stopping bad at the end of the mile and a quarter classic. Thats where his distance limitations on dirt were exposed. Good move by his trainer for putting him on a surface more suitable to his running style and breeding. And also, for taking a stab at the Derby and collecting the show dough. That's a nice check to get. But I feel POP seems best at mile and 1/8, on the green.

One final note: Usually the Best 3-Year-Old of The Year is awarded to those who win the Top Dirt Races of the year.

re: O' Shooting Star

Slew — Mon, 30 Aug 2010 15:22:10 GMT

Coldfacts: Gee you're back. Wasn't it you who proclaimed before the Kentucky Derby that no AP Indy or Pletcher horse could win it based on YOUR statistics. Bleep! Wrong again.

Since most of the colts in the Triple Crown races were by Mr Prospector or Seattle Slew or both, you couldn't help but lose your own argument.

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Footlick — Sat, 28 Aug 2010 20:09:42 GMT

Danny fron UK- I saw that about St Nicholas Abbey prepping in the race on synthetic. I just figured it was a conditioning race. I thought they might try him in the Classic. I also Sarafina is worthy of your list of 3 yr olds.

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Danny from UK — Sat, 28 Aug 2010 19:31:07 GMT

I find the comparisons between U.S and European horses fascinating. Paddy O'Prado has a sparkling career ahead of him, there's no doubt about it. He'll go far in the horsemeat trade.

The best 3yo on any surface? Are you nuts? Here's a list of better ones:

Makfi

Canford Cliffs

Workforce

St Nicholas Abbey

Snow Fairy

Cape Blanco

Lope De Vega

Lookin at Lucky

Incidentally St Nicholas Abbey is being readied for a tilt at the Breeder's Cup Marathon. If capable of reproducing 2yo form, the rest are running for 2nd place. Remember the name, and I'll bet he's enormous odds on your side of the water.

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Otherlyn — Fri, 27 Aug 2010 16:24:23 GMT

When PADDY kicks it in the stretch, and soars over the turf, jetting to the finish line... OH!!!! Be still,my heart! Absolutely thrilling.

Gotta Love The Boy.

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Trebloc — Fri, 27 Aug 2010 15:53:48 GMT

Coldfacts,

Street Sense......Get your facts straight! LOL.........

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sodapopkid — Fri, 27 Aug 2010 15:53:35 GMT

Congrats Ted in LA on your new job.

That means you will be Jason's boss? Ted

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Coldfacts — Fri, 27 Aug 2010 11:36:20 GMT

Ranagulzion,

Many thanks for your evaluation of Miners Reserve. I think you are dead wrong as this colt ran a shocker in Jim D signifying his arrival on the big stage. He was always thought to be a talented colt and I think he is now realizing his true potential. As for the derby, Ice Box was an unfortunate looser. Given the state of the track o Derby Day, SS will have to validate his victory by a least beating some of the top 3YO colts. If he is incapable of doing this his victory will be validated as a fluke.

The stats do not look good for SS. Only two derby winners have won the Travers in the last 56 running (Thunder Gulch/Sea Hero) In spite of the powerful stable maintained by the ‘Chosen One’ (Todd P) over the years, his entrants have only managed one victory ( Flower Alley) Even if the historic record of derby winners and the trainer are ignored, the current status of your stable must be cause for concern. The big filly was soundly beaten and the monster older male had no one to blame for his surprising loss in a race with early fractions consistent with those of claimers. Your stable is clearly under a cloud and I suggest you fine a nice charity and donate the funds you are intending to wager on SS.

Thomas

Triple Crown winner Sir Barton was entered in the 1916 Derby as a rabbit for his stable mate. He was still a maiden at the time. He performed his rabbit duties by going straight to the. However, he was never relinquished his lead and created a massive upset. What is the moral of the story? Rabbits are fast and not all stop to take a nap during a race.

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Pedigree Shelly — Fri, 27 Aug 2010 01:56:43 GMT

Paddy O' Prado should be kept on turf , He has an excellent chance to become Male Turf Champ ! He'll be hard to beat if he's entered in the BC Turf ! I'll give Trappe Shot another chance in Saturday's Travers . He ran second to LAL, I still think he's the class of the race along with First Dude . I'd like to see " The Dude "win for a change !

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2:24 — Fri, 27 Aug 2010 01:10:05 GMT

I think Rachel romps in the Personal Ensign.

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Ted from LA — Thu, 26 Aug 2010 23:15:55 GMT

It's looking like a lock that Ted from LA is going to be the next President/CEO at the Bloodhorse. Jason, be a dear, and run and grab me a cup of coffee while I make this decision.

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thomas — Thu, 26 Aug 2010 21:44:08 GMT

coldfacts

looks like miners reserve wont even run in the travers according to tvg. if he goes he'll be rabbit for ice box.

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steve s — Thu, 26 Aug 2010 20:42:14 GMT

Kentucky Derby is a joke

paddy o prado was great up untill his last win--needs his mdn win race back

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Fan In The Stands — Thu, 26 Aug 2010 18:38:28 GMT

Paddy O'Prado walked his 1/2 mile in over 52 seconds, his mile in 1:42, and finished the 1 1/4 in just under 2:05 last out. A couple of races later they went 15 lengths faster at the mile and 8 lengths faster at the finish. If POP is going to catch up to those types they need to shove some jet-fuel up his rear end and light it on fire.

Life At Ten is going beat up RA this weekend.

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Trebloc — Thu, 26 Aug 2010 18:01:35 GMT

Draynay,

Maybe the Kentucky Derby is turning into a joke, if the prior to winners are so god awful. LOL....

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In aint easy being good! — Thu, 26 Aug 2010 17:56:47 GMT

Dray off of QR back on Rachael huh. Back and forth you go! haha anyone want to a good post go above and read gunbow's post. Well said my friend and he is right Sidneys candy is a miler at best you guys think he can go longer are clearly california dreamin! Paddy is a beast and is getting better and better!

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Draynay — Thu, 26 Aug 2010 17:47:12 GMT

Jason, please tell me why people still pretend on here that Super Saver will win another race this year? He is another FLUKE like the Fluke winner last year. Leave it alone and back a horse who can win a race.

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Draynay — Thu, 26 Aug 2010 17:41:14 GMT

Why on earth does anyone talk about Sidney's Candy ? Rachel wins again and takes another step on Sunday towards a repeat of the HOY. 2 wins at 1 1/4 will seal the deal. Go Rachel !!!

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Criminal Type — Thu, 26 Aug 2010 15:18:59 GMT

Paddy O'Prado reminds me of another great gray horse who won the Breeders Cup Turf, Daylami. I think Daylami enjoys his Guiness as well. I really like Paddy a lot. He is a young colt with enormous potential, not to mention a nice pedigree. He will succeed his sire rather nicely in the breeding shed. God willing he will remain healthy and be a turf monster next year when he is 4. If he gets an Eclipse this year it will most likely be for 3 yr old Turf Male. I have to agree with everyone who said Sidney's Candy won't want more then a mile.

The Breeders Cup turf is not setting up to be a cake walk. There will be some heavy hitters coming from Europe. I'm sure, without the synthetic surface that attracted a lot of the Euro's over the past two years, they will most likly be sending their horses to the grass, not dirt. They will be tough to beat. I will be happy if he hits the board and comes back to the barn safely. I want to see him race next year.

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Footlick — Thu, 26 Aug 2010 15:09:41 GMT

Slew- as far as I know Debussy will be back for the BC and it is the target for Twice Over. Also Rip Van Winkle has been mentioned as possible. Midday and Stacelita are being pointed for the BC Filly/Mare turf. Midday will prep in the Vermeille or the Opera and I think Stacelita will prep in the Opera. Others will pop up I'm sure as the time nears. Of course Goldikova for the Mile and I thought that I read that Makfi may be considering a BC trip also. I can't remember about Paco Boy. They might be on the fence.

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Trebloc — Thu, 26 Aug 2010 14:44:43 GMT

Any word on LAL? Will he still be able to make the PA Derby? I know he tends to comeback stronger then ever after suffering from a head cold to flu.

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Slew — Thu, 26 Aug 2010 13:13:31 GMT

I think Paddy O is great on the turf...but considering the BC will be open to Euros...I don't know that he'll top Debussy or Goldikova. Aren't Twice Over and Midday also headed to the BC? Best 3 yr old...LAL, no question. And the filly is Blind Luck. Both West Coast super stars. However, I'm still pining for the return of Take Control...I thought he was really special.

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Trebloc — Thu, 26 Aug 2010 12:15:19 GMT

I hear Paddy O'Prado is a "Black and Tan" fan. Super Saver beat both LAL and Paddy O'Prado in the Derby. In fact, I like SS in the Travers. Only horse to win at the classic distance and all the entries will carry 126 lbs. A Little Warm carrying eleven more pounds then he did in the Dandy is the favorite?

I like Rail Trip in the Pacific Classic! My Bad.........

Looking forward to my first trip to Saratoga!

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GunBow — Thu, 26 Aug 2010 06:15:44 GMT

Lookin at Lucky deserves to be ranked as the #1 3 year old right now. A classic win far outweighs any of Paddy's wins, and Lucky also has the Haskell, and a solid gr.2 in the Rebel. Also, he has obvious excuses in his 2 losses.

LaL doesn't have the 3 year old Eclipse wrapped up, however. There are a number of scenarios that could produce a number of Eclipse possiblities.

Paddy is certainly a contender for both the 3 year old and turf male Eclipses. Personally, I think he's a stronger contender for the turf male award given all of his stakes wins have come on turf; while that 3rd place finish in the Derby speaks to his class, it's not like he won the race or either of the two other classics. That said, if he wins the Joe Hirsch and BC Turf and the 3 year old dirt stars get roughed up by the older horses, Paddy just might pull a Gio Ponti and win both awards.

Can Paddy win both the Hirsch and BC Turf? I do think he fits with the better US based older turf horses, given Gio has lost a step, so the Hirsch is a very real possibility. While Paddy fits with the top older turf males, I'm not ready to proclaim Paddy the clear #1 American turf horse, and I don't think he's in the same league as Kitten's Joy. Kitten's Joy was running fast times and much stronger Beyers than Paddy(Kitten ran 108 in the Va Derby and 113 in Secretariat), and he was having to beat tougher competition given the 04' crop of 3 year old turf males included Artie Schiller(favored for that year's BC Mile, winner of that race in 05'), Prince Arch, and Greek Sun. And whereas Kitten's time in the Secretariat was superior to the corresponding time of the 04' Arlington Million, Paddy's Secretariat time was about 7 lengths slower than Debussy's time. If I had to choose, I would probably still take Gio Ponti over Paddy, and I think Paddy will be in deep water if any of Europe's top 12 furlong turf horses come over for the Breeder's Cup.

One thing I think should be clear is that Paddy deserves to be ranked as the #1 3 year old turf male. Simply, his accomplishments on turf tower over any other 3 year old. Some have suggested Sidney's Candy is the best 3 year old turf horse, and while he is clearly talented, his accomplishments on turf pale in comparison to Paddy's; if there was an Eclipse award for 3 year old turfer, Paddy would be a huge frontrunner based purely on accomplishment.

Is Sidney's Candy, however, the superior turf talent? On this question I concur wholely with Jason. Sidney's Candy is very talented and an exciting prospect for the Breeder's Cup, but for the Turf Mile; Sidney's Candy is a turf miler, and beyond 8.5 furlongs he would likely find Paddy too tough.