This Chalk is Making Me Thirsty

re: This Chalk is Making Me Thirsty

Householder — Wed, 15 Sep 2010 23:08:26 GMT

ruffianruns: Nice article...Yes the Moss' owned Rhulmann was a beast. He went head to head with Criminal Type, held the track record at Santa Anita for the dirt mile (1:32 and change) and his biggest accomplishment also came at Santa Anita against another very accomplished mare...Bayakoa. The Moss owned horse showed the "lady" no mercy in the Santa Anita Big Cap. It's ironic that some 20 years later their "Big Mare" faces off against the boys at the same track and wins. Somewhere Bayakoa is smiling.

re: This Chalk is Making Me Thirsty

ruffianruns — Wed, 15 Sep 2010 20:49:45 GMT

Since David Ingordo posted on this very blog and since many of you know about him discovering Zenyatta, I wanted to post again with something I just found.

Did you know that David Ingordo also "discovered" John Shirreffs?

Check out this article I just found:

articles.latimes.com/.../sp-preakness20

"Five years ago, [the Mosses] sent [Dottie] Ingordo to interview [John] Shirreffs, on the recommendation of Ingordo's son David, who was then a 19-year-old animal-science major at the University of Kentucky and working during the summer for the veterinarian who treated Shirreffs' horses.

'David had been around John's barn a lot, and thought he was the kind of guy who would be comfortable working with me, Jerry and Ann,' Dottie Ingordo said."

re: This Chalk is Making Me Thirsty

ruffianruns — Wed, 15 Sep 2010 19:53:36 GMT

Dr D - You got it right! OMG! I'm not going to be able to sleep for two months. And after not sleeping for two months, I hope I don't blink.

re: This Chalk is Making Me Thirsty

Dr Drunkinbum — Wed, 15 Sep 2010 19:41:27 GMT

ruffianruns, jayjay

Interview with Mike Smith after Zenyatta wins in 1:57 and 4/5ths - "I haven't even gotten to the bottom of her yet. She's not even breathing hard. She did that real easy. She never had to get out of third gear. Well, maybe a little bit of fourth gear to get by them, then she shut it down again and cruised in. Isn't she amazing? Did you see her woosh by them all? Or did you blink?"

re: This Chalk is Making Me Thirsty

ruffianruns — Wed, 15 Sep 2010 16:36:51 GMT

jayjay! - 1:57 and 4/5ths? I would literally DIE, so I'm sure some folks are wishing for that! But hell, why not wish for the stars?

re: This Chalk is Making Me Thirsty

Dr Drunkinbum — Wed, 15 Sep 2010 15:20:06 GMT

jayjay

The 4.2 looks really good. I don't think there will be another Green monkey but I'm surprised they are paying so much for these. Derby Fever is kicking in. For the AP Indy, part of it is future breeding. Afleet Alex will save us. He'll be romping. That's the babies I would be buying.

Ruffianruns

Twirling Candy- I think they need to be careful with him, and move him along slow, or they might lose him. Mentally, he's got a ways to go. He could be too much of a handful if they don't watch. Physically his talent is amazing. He could win anything, but I'd be shooting for nest year. Sidney's Candy is going for the turf mile I think. He will stay on turf.

re: This Chalk is Making Me Thirsty

jayjay — Wed, 15 Sep 2010 05:48:05 GMT

Dr. D : You know who that dynaformer filly reminds me of ? 2002 HOTY. That is one good looking horse, I believe dynaformers do really well on synthetic so this might be the east coast horse that travels west of the rockies. I prefer a thinner neck but she looks well rounded. I'll be following her too.

If she runs at 8-1 or above in her first race, I'll bet some good money on her. :)

What do you think of that 4.2M colt ? I don't know if he'll run to his purchase price. He might be another Green Monkey...although he'll probably have a lot of speed being a Balance colt.

I've always wondered what the buyers are paying for, future breeding or winning races. I don't know if this sport will survive with babies running less than 10 times in their career and then going to breeding. The hard knockin horses of the 80s and early 90s will soon be gone from breeding and we'll be left with the our current breeders, hopefully the AP Indy's and Afleet Alexes will save our future from being 6F to a mile babies.

BC Classic will be 1:57 and 4/5ths, with a 1/4 left in the tank...enough for the post race dance :)

re: This Chalk is Making Me Thirsty

ruffianruns — Wed, 15 Sep 2010 02:58:37 GMT

Dr D - I'm worried that even QR will be crawling on the front end trying to save some for the onslaught. I think QR would prefer someone to track, and if no one's there, I find it hard to believe that they would send him. I can't believe I'm so obsessed with something two months away. Do you think that one of the speedy Candy Rides could make the Classic and pour it on on the front end?

re: This Chalk is Making Me Thirsty

Dr Drunkinbum — Wed, 15 Sep 2010 02:34:43 GMT

ruffianruns

That was my thought when I thought QR could do it in two flat, then Zen would have to be under two. You know she can't do it without help. She just does what it takes. I know that she can go under two, just has to have someone to catch that is blazing. Yes, she is a dirt monster, but would it surprise you to know that she could win The Breeder's Turf also? This is no ordinary horse. Like the Oaklawn race caller called, "It's a bird, it's a plane, NO, it's Zenyatta." Under two will happen if Gio Ponti is in there. The more talent, the merrier. I'm hoping Rachel goes too. I'd like to see more speed than just QR. But I've seen under two in the 2010 Classic for awhile. It should happen.

re: This Chalk is Making Me Thirsty

ruffianruns — Wed, 15 Sep 2010 02:06:56 GMT

Dr D - It's gonna happen if we get a speedster in there!

People will see what a "dirt specialist" Zenyatta is after the Classic.

re: This Chalk is Making Me Thirsty

Householder — Tue, 14 Sep 2010 22:17:02 GMT

Baffert. As much as he hates synthetics one sure does not hear him refer to Zenyatta as a "poly specialist."

re: This Chalk is Making Me Thirsty

Dr Drunkinbum — Tue, 14 Sep 2010 19:32:13 GMT

ruffianruns

In that respect, you're right. It's funny that I had the same dream !!!

re: This Chalk is Making Me Thirsty

ruffianruns — Tue, 14 Sep 2010 18:59:30 GMT

Speaking of Baffert... Did you guys see what he said at the sales? He really thought he was going to get Zenyatta's nephew. "I thought we would get him for $2 million," he said.

re: This Chalk is Making Me Thirsty

ruffianruns — Tue, 14 Sep 2010 17:58:39 GMT

Dr D - I'll look for Baffert's book at Bloodhorse.

Householder and Meydan Rocks - I think I read that in Steve Haskin's rundown after the Classic last year. It must have been hilarious. He also said something like it was the first time he didn't mind getting beat in a big race.

Dr D - The pace DOES matter! If it's not a fast pace, then how is my dream of her breaking Secretariat's track record (or running a 1:59 and change mile and a quarter) going to come true??

re: This Chalk is Making Me Thirsty

Dr Drunkinbum — Tue, 14 Sep 2010 05:49:03 GMT

jayjay

I love the looks of the Dynaformer filly that Roy and Gretchen Jackson bought. I'll be looking for her. Hopefully she can run as beautifully as she looks. Here she comes Miss America......

re: This Chalk is Making Me Thirsty

Dr Drunkinbum — Tue, 14 Sep 2010 03:48:40 GMT

Meydan

We don't know about the pace because we don't know who is entered. I wouldn't be surprised to see some more speed, but it doesn't matter. When Zenyatta and Blame and others move will depend on the fractions. They can move Zenyatta into 4th gear to get close, then 5th gear to blow by them to time the wire. She lets up after the lead so they can't get it too early. I thought QR would pull away with those Whitney fractions but he didn't. I think he will be keyed up after the layoff and he will get the lead fairly early. Can he keep it is the question. Last year it was the track that he didn't like, not the competition. Well, some say it was the helicopter. Maybe, but I have a different opinion. He hates poly track. He'll have no trouble loading despite the layoff. Those days should be over. It wouldn't surprise me if they have trouble rating QR after the layoff, and maybe they won't have to. If there turns out to be no other real speed, he'll take the lead, JR will try to slow him down and explode the last quarter, or eighth depending on where the competition is. I can't wait to see who's in the field and start evaluating. I don't think it's a done deal for Rachel not being in The Classic. I bet they wait to see how her next race goes. They still want The Classic if they think she can pull it off.

re: This Chalk is Making Me Thirsty

Dr Drunkinbum — Tue, 14 Sep 2010 03:36:11 GMT

Householder-Baffert, who has a great eye for talent is in awe of The Queen. Frankly, I don't know why anybody wouldn't be. Meydan-good one, I like that vision. I still want to know if Richard's Kid is going to The Cup.

re: This Chalk is Making Me Thirsty

Meydan Rocks — Tue, 14 Sep 2010 03:13:20 GMT

The Good Dr!

Amen on the joy of watching her run. Thinking about betting the exotics is like me swimming in the deep end. Terrifying! I'll have to wade in slowly...

A bit of news that might be scrutinized by the QR camp.

From the DRF

09/13/2010 3:50PM

Rachel Alexandra sharp in Saratoga drill

"After failing to get the 1 1/4 miles of the Personal Ensign, it is more likely Rachel Alexandra would be pointed to the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic at 1 1/8 miles on Nov. 5, rather than the $5 million Classic against the boys – and perhaps Zenyatta – on Nov. 6."

Does this mean the pace will be less taxing with her potential absence?

re: This Chalk is Making Me Thirsty

Meydan Rocks — Tue, 14 Sep 2010 02:57:08 GMT

Ruffianruns,

HILARIOUS story about Bobby Baffert jumping horses!

That would make a great slapstick comic moment in a movie!

Trainer cheers, owner glares, trainer cowers, owner strikes with a rolled up DRF!

re: This Chalk is Making Me Thirsty

Householder — Mon, 13 Sep 2010 23:05:50 GMT

Baffert. It's kind of neat hearing that someone of his caliber can still get excited by a great race even when he has a dog in the fight. I know the crowd, a lot of them already throwing their tickets on the ground, gave Zenyatta a standing ovation which I though was pretty cool.

re: This Chalk is Making Me Thirsty

Dr Drunkinbum — Mon, 13 Sep 2010 19:59:18 GMT

ruffianruns

It was only $2.95 at Bloodhorse. I guarantee that you'll love it. See if Bloodhorse still has it. If you can't get it, let me know.

re: This Chalk is Making Me Thirsty

ruffianruns — Mon, 13 Sep 2010 18:52:31 GMT

Dr D - I haven't read Baffert's book. I guess I'll have to find it. I have a cousin who grew up in Nogales, AZ and speaks highly of him and his family.

re: This Chalk is Making Me Thirsty

Dr Drunkinbum — Mon, 13 Sep 2010 02:39:40 GMT

jayjay

Like I said-whatever works. I understand what you're saying about instincts. The trick is knowing when they are instincts or strong visions rather than a false or imagined instinct. It's hard to explain what I mean, you may know what I'm talking about. I also know what you mean about the pp's. Sometimes the harder I study, the more confused I become, and it turns out that my initial impressions were right on but I studied too much and changed my picks. If you look hard enough they can all start looking like the winner in some races. The great thing is that you can pass any race if it doesn't feel right. Some of my best days are when I pass race after race, saving a lot of money. I can even have the bets picked out and then not bet them. It's a great feeling to save hundreds of dollars from not betting rather than betting because I'm afraid that if I don't bet, they will come in and I will miss out on a big payout. Some of my most satisfying wins are "no bets." I consider not betting when I would have lost to be a win. What do you think of 11-1 odds? it's one of my favorite odds.

ruffianruns

Another great Baffert story !!! i assume you read his book. I loved it.

re: This Chalk is Making Me Thirsty

ruffianruns — Sun, 12 Sep 2010 23:17:52 GMT

Dr D - You're killing me with the DQ stuff! That sounds like MY kind of luck!

Meydan Rocks and Dr D - My favorite Baffert story with regard to Zen is the one he told about watching last year's Classic. He talked about how he jumped horses at the eighth pole. When Richard's Kid folded he started shouting for Zen and Richard's Kid's owner got all excited again thinking Kid was making a comeback.

re: This Chalk is Making Me Thirsty

jayjay — Sun, 12 Sep 2010 23:04:52 GMT

Dr. D : Yes, there are other things that I look at other than physicality but I try to minimize it because the more info I look at the worst it gets for me. You are right that I stopped using PPs as my main handicapping tool because it has messed me up, it has pushed me away from winners I picked.

I normally look for 3 or 4 horses during the parade, then I watch the odds throughout for my picks - see how much they change against the favorite's odd.

There are times though, I will just play out of instinct, I look at a horse and decide I will put 200 on that horse to win or place.

I do play favorites but 90% of the time I play like the way I played my pen 5. 2nd or 3rd favorite on top, with longshots and the favorite somewhere in there. If I like the way the favorite looks then I will single them on top and have bombs on the bottom.

But my real secret handicapping trick is playing my favorite numbers, looking for gray horses and the ones that has pretty names like "Dawifewillneverknow" or "ItsmymoneyandIneeditnow" lol