The Future is in Vegas

re: The Future is in Vegas

Trebloc — Mon, 04 Oct 2010 11:35:33 GMT

I mean, Distorted Humor already sired a Derby winner. My bad.

re: The Future is in Vegas

Trebloc — Mon, 04 Oct 2010 11:34:33 GMT

Coldhardfacts,

Thank you for information. Did you happen to see who fired a 5 furlong bullet yesterday at Belmont? Let's face it Brethren's pedigree is on fire. Did you see that Supercharger's full brother Girolamo won Saturday's Grade 1 Vosburgh. Distorted Humor already bred a derby winner, Supercharger already bred a derby winner, Brethren great connections, firing bullets, what's not to like?

re: The Future is in Vegas

Coldfacts — Sat, 02 Oct 2010 14:20:54 GMT

Jason,

I just watched your handicapping show featuring the JCGC and the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational. I am in agreement with Tranquil Manner with Blame. Tranquil Manner is the only horse in the field bred to easily get 12. His sire A. P. Indy and dame sire both won the Belmont. It can be said TM has a double dose of Belmont. He shows a pair of 47 works on the Godolphin training track. Those types of work are rare for him suggesting he is much improved. Let me remind you three of A.P. Indy’s sons have won the JCGC in the last nine years and the 2009 winner Summer Bird was also sired by a Belmont winner.

Paddy will not finish ahead of Never On Sunday. Neither you nor your co-hosts even mentioned this horse. The Turf course should be good at best and

such courses normally suit Europeans. Exclude from your exotics at your peril.

In the Norfolk I really like Riveting Reason purely on the historic success of his cross. He is bred along the same cross as 1998 & 2004 Kentucky Derby/Preakness winners Smarty Jones and the recently diseased Real Quiet. Smarty Jones and Real Quiet were both sired by Grandsons of Mr. Prospector (Elusive Quality/Quite American) Their broodmares were sired by (Smile/ Believe It) both sons of In Reality. Riveting Reason was sire by a son of the Mr. Prospector (Fusaichi Pegasus) and his dame was sires by Known Fact possibly the most accomplished son of In Reality. He won the 2000 Guineas (GB-G1), Middle Park S. (GB-G1), Queen Elizabeth II and was Champion 3yo colt in England. Riveting Reason’s trainer probably created history when Street Hero won the 2008 Norfolk as a maiden. This trainer is back again with a colt that has a proven classic pedigree and I will be taking my chances.

re: The Future is in Vegas

Coldfacts — Sat, 02 Oct 2010 05:57:27 GMT

Ranagulzion,

I suggest you read my comments to Trebloc again. There is no pedigree information specified. I merely highlighted the fact that based on my records no broodmare has produced two KD winners. Based on Trebloc prediction, Super Charges will be the first and will also produce back to back winners. Based on historic data this it is unlikely to occur.

As for Quality Road, he has too many negatives. Some I have specified above and the major one that I have no mentioned is associated with the trend of Mr. P’s horses after big performances. Quality Road recorded two NTR as Saratoga and Gulfstream. He recorded an exceptionally fast time winning the Met mile. Subsequent to those performances he set what could only be considered pedestrian fractions in the Whitney and could not repel the challenge of Blame. He recorded a time of 1:50 in the Woodward under a strong ride. He is clearly no longer the horse that ran 1:47.49 for 9F. He is clearly following the trend of Todd P., trained horses.

Lawyer Ron set a NTR of 1:46.64 in Whitney H. In his subsequent race he was fully extended in a lost to Curlin in the JCGC. Thereafter he was not the same horse. Sound familiar, QA was fully extended in his lost to Blame. He came back and ran 1:50 for 9F. Conclusion: he is going backwards. Do some research on horses like Flower Alley, Proud Accolade, Any Given Saturday and many others after extremely big performances? He is heading in a direction similar to many before him.

Make some cash off the Blame and Tranquil Manner Ext. Put Tranquil Manner on top as he has been begging for 10F. Save the proceeds and place on him in the BCC.

re: The Future is in Vegas

Ranagulzion — Sat, 02 Oct 2010 02:26:55 GMT

COLDFACTS,

It is too early to be tutoring Trebloc in Triple crown pedigree statistics. Save those lessons for the late Winter/early Spring "semester" (LOL).

watch out for the "Return of the King" in November, compliments of the quality gentlemen Messrs Todd P, Johnny V and Ed Evans. Do you remember that 1980's hit by McFadden & Whitehead "Aint no stopping us now" ...check it out Bro ...that QR's Breeder's Cup Classic rhythm.

re: The Future is in Vegas

SPLITS OF 12 — Fri, 01 Oct 2010 21:17:33 GMT

Here are my picks for this weeks final prep races before the Breeders Cup at Churchill Downs.

Vosburgh- Latigo Shore: strictly a hunch play.

Flower Bowl- Keertana: She looks awfully tough in this one.

Hirsh Turf Classic- Telling: See this horse leading every step of the way.

Jockey Gold Cup- Mythical Power: Runs the race of his life. Blame finishes strong for second, and Fly Down closes well, for third.

Norfolk- Jaycito: love his breeding and style. He keeps charging hard. Watch this horse break his maiden in the G1. Norfolk.

Lady's Secret: Rinterval: I think Zenyatta is vunerable. This horse ran a game 2nd last time out to Zenyatta, and lost on the final few jumps. She may just have enough this time, to outlast the Queen.

Yellow Ribbon- Restless Soul: Chalk up a G1 for Pat V, as he gears up for a return to the Downs. Lilly Fa Pootz is another game filly, who should be right in the mix.

Goodwood- Twirling Candy: There's no early speed to challenge this beast. He's an emerging superstar, and should leave this field in the dust. Best Bet!

re: The Future is in Vegas

Mike Relva — Thu, 30 Sep 2010 14:32:37 GMT

COLDFACT

Right. Let's here your theory after the Classic. lol

re: The Future is in Vegas

Coldfacts — Thu, 30 Sep 2010 03:44:39 GMT

Trebloc

I have the pedigrees of the winners of Kentucky Derby for the last six decades on a spreadsheet. During this period no broodmare has produced two winners of the great race. I have not done any extensive research on the decades prior to those in my spreadsheet but subject to correction, I do not believe this event occurred during this period either. In light of the non occurrence, Brethren has a huge historic hurdle to clear. You anticipate that Supercharger will be the broodmare that foals two derby winner and you also expect them to be back to back winners. The historic occurrence that you are predicting appears unrealistic with the cold facts presented.

The great sprinter Usain Bolt normally states that anything is possible. Consequently, you should not be discouraged by the historic facts above. Broodmare Ormonda, produced two Kentucky Derby starters. Osmand was second by a head in Whiskery's and Brevity lost by the same margin to Bold Venture. Never Knock produced two Kentucky Derby starters. Go For Gin won and Pleasant Tap was third. Weekend Surprise produced Belmont winner A. P. Indy who many thought would have won the derby if not scratched due to injury. She also produced Summer Squall who finished second in the KD. What you are asking of Brethren might just be the impossible.

Mike Relva

Certain races have weird histories. The 2010 BCC has a horse that is a beast and he is 4YO. This age group accounts for the most victories. Why would I favor The Zen mare who fall into an age group that has never won the race. One what appears to be her preferred surface she defeated a pair of turf horses making their synthetic surface debut. She will now be running against the dream of the crop on their preferred surface. It’s time to face the cold facts.

Daunice

You are correct. I focused on the wrong line on my spreadsheet. Many thank for highlighting this.

-Keelerman

Curlinello was featured by Steve in a recent post. Derby wise he has way too many negatives. Rarely does a stallion produce back to back champions. Smart Strike sired the 2009 champion 2YO Lookin At Lucky. He is unlikely to be the stallion that produces the big one in 2010. His dam was sired by Pleasant Colony a KD winner. KD winner’s have extremely poor records as broodmare sires of classic winners. In spite of all the historic negatives I like the colt for one reason. His dam is inbred to siblings. Her pedigree reflects Misty Morn and Misty Flight both produced from Princequillo/Gery Flight. Misty Morn was the dam of Sunrise Flight the broodmare sire of Pleasant Colony. Misty Flight was dame sire of Flight Dancer who produced Minstrella (Champion 2yo Filly in Ireland) Horses with this pedigree feature I always place an asterisk against them. The pedigrees of broodmares that have produced several exceptional champions reflect sibling inbreeding i.e., Big Brown, Affirmed, Seattle Slew, Ferdinand etc.

re: The Future is in Vegas

Dr Drunkinbum — Thu, 30 Sep 2010 01:53:02 GMT

sodapopkid

I saw on Jockeys where Kayla Stra rode you to her first victory at SA. Woohoo.

re: The Future is in Vegas

Mike Relva — Thu, 30 Sep 2010 00:47:57 GMT

THE_WIZ

Hey,how's it going? Just be thankful Draynay has went into exile for awhile. I know I am.

re: The Future is in Vegas

sodapopkid — Wed, 29 Sep 2010 11:07:46 GMT

SODA POP...HOW WOULD u LIKE your CROW COOKED???...

Re: What crow? Where do you see I am eating crow? Let me get a little liqour in me and you can begin to show me what you are talking about.

re: The Future is in Vegas

The Rock — Wed, 29 Sep 2010 00:42:16 GMT

I agree Footlick. I wouldn't get off of Makfi just yet. He's run 2 bad races at Ascot. He obviously does not like the course. Its tough to ignore that race against Goldikova with a little give in the ground. If the skies open up BC day, Makfi would be a great play at a generous price. I'm sure the Euro punters will lower the odds on him considerably compared to the North American pools. Just a little rain the day before please horse gods.....a good surface will do. Dry main track. lol.

Daunice/Tiznowbaby,

We all know how Jess Jackson rolls. Keeps things close to the vest. There may be more behind the scenes then what he's letting on. And you know if there is he's placed the gag order on Asmussen. This guy finally gets a Breeders Cup on dirt and he doesn't want to run the best horse he owns on it. He's impossible to please.

re: The Future is in Vegas

Footlick — Wed, 29 Sep 2010 00:00:16 GMT

Also rans in the QE2 have done very well in the BC Mile. QE2 is more like a 9 furlong race because of the last 4 furlongs or so being uphill. Very few winners have gone on to BC Mile success. Many Brit handicappers thought that Makfi wouldn't like Ascot. Let's see how he comes out of it and then go from there instead of just writing him off.

re: The Future is in Vegas

Daunice — Tue, 28 Sep 2010 23:51:51 GMT

Coldfacts - the facts - Cigar did not lose the BCC to Skippy (Jockey Club Gold Cup), he lost to Alphabet Soup 1996 at Woodbine.

Skippy ran a (then) BBC record time winning at Hollywood Park 1997.

I saw both races.

Rock - I too thought it was very odd Rachel was retired right after she works a bullet.

re: The Future is in Vegas

Mike Relva — Tue, 28 Sep 2010 23:30:46 GMT

COLDFACTS

Really? You probably said the same thing last year about her prior to the Breeders. Lol I'm betting Jason and giving him the rest of the field,so yes I feel good about her winning!

re: The Future is in Vegas

Householder — Tue, 28 Sep 2010 23:06:17 GMT

Blind Luck is at Philly Park not Hollywood Park! Looks like she scared everyone away as well. Should be a good set up for the Breeder's Cup. There was no reason to bring her back to synthetics in California and face Zenyatta. With RA out of the Breeder's Cup picture she has the next best race over the Churchill Downs course at 1 1/8th. The logical favorite.

re: The Future is in Vegas

Tiznowbaby — Tue, 28 Sep 2010 22:43:36 GMT

I have the same questions, Rock?

Why fire a bullet and then retire? Very odd. I would have liked to have seen the Beldame (who also did things no 3YO has ever done) and then make a decision after that. Obviously, though, they didn't think she was rounding into form, so best wishes Rachel for a long, happy life.

re: The Future is in Vegas

Aluminaut — Tue, 28 Sep 2010 22:17:08 GMT

Welcome back Jason.

It Ain't Easy--Go to your room.

re: The Future is in Vegas

The Rock — Tue, 28 Sep 2010 21:44:01 GMT

Don't you think Jackson was a little premature with the retirement? Isn't it safe to say that there was little communication between the owner/trainer here? Why would Asmussen work her if this guy was just going to retire her? Why risk it? I hope jackson's mating her to Curlin produces a dud. Bench her after the Breeders Cup.

re: The Future is in Vegas

the_wiz — Tue, 28 Sep 2010 12:15:01 GMT

Where in Vegas can I get some odds on draynay not picking a winner that's not an odds on favorite the rest of the year? I realize I could only get 1/20 at best but hey where else can you get a guranteed return of 5% on your investment today?

re: The Future is in Vegas

jayjay — Tue, 28 Sep 2010 07:46:09 GMT

Looking forward to seeing Frankel in the Juvenile Turf!

re: The Future is in Vegas

Householder — Mon, 27 Sep 2010 17:27:39 GMT

Blind Luck certainly is interesting over the Hollywood Park course. She won the Hollywood Starlet at 1 1/16 by 7 lengths in 141.96. Hollendorfer usually places his horses where they are competitive. But, Blind Luck has also lost over this course. He couldn't beat big Z with Hysterical Lady at even money. I doubt he takes out the big mare with this 3 year old. If he goes into the Lady's Secret he is using it as a prep for the Lady's Classic and not a win.

re: The Future is in Vegas

Billy's Empire — Mon, 27 Sep 2010 12:51:57 GMT

Makfi got whipped in QEII. Rip Lost by a nose, looks like Goldi should win 3 in a row. First Dude, just finds a way to get ITM, never wins....

re: The Future is in Vegas

Dr Drunkinbum — Mon, 27 Sep 2010 04:32:13 GMT

Jason

Well, I hope you had a little luck. Welcome back. Are you going to Keeneland daily during the meet?

ruffianruns

Still praying? Or are you waiting til after the 2nd? Have fun !!!!!!!!

splits of 12

Jaycito is number one on my list. He was on my list before DM Futurity so I was anxious to see him run. I really like his pedigree and running style, and Mitchell can get him there with a little luck. Make that a lot of luck. From what I've seen of I Want Revenge, I think he should be retired. He can't run like he used to. His stride is not looking good. He'll do well in stud, at least initailly because of Derby fever simply because he was the Derby ML favorite. He might do better than if he had actually run !!!!

re: The Future is in Vegas

Matthew W — Sun, 26 Sep 2010 04:59:46 GMT

The Tiznow breeding showed up in the Pennsylvania stretch--and (again) First Dude runs a strange race--gets passed/comes on again....the (soft) Super Derby had a real nice winner--that horse will make noise--can run all day--why not take a stab, the Classic is gonna have some speed this year, and questionable staying Quality, pardon the pun--I hope Jess sends Rachel out there to face off with Quality, and outlast him, in a race within a race--I wouldn't Blame Jess for trying, pardon the pun, yatta yatta yatta....