Handicapping The Travers

re: Handicapping The Travers

Wanda — Sun, 24 Aug 2008 22:33:46 GMT

Man Jason can you believe how rough that race was run? The winner totally deserved that one. My horse(Macho Again} got ganged up on. I guess they were scared of him and everybody tried to take him out.Those Cal guys they play pretty rough.The trainer said the horse was sore, I sure hope his feet weren't bleeding.

The winner can run on dirt, hard to believe. I sort of thought everyone was going to pick their surface and stay on it. This blows that theory all to heck!

re: Handicapping The Travers

Matthew W — Sun, 24 Aug 2008 06:34:01 GMT

Draynay: I agree with you about their training tactics---they are running on grass BECAUSE they're planning for the BC Classic, and he has terrible feet!! A loss to Brownie would hurt his value, but The Classic is a race he NEEDS---I like you think he'll win out but I also think Col John has potential at 1 1/4---and yes this is after The Travers, but that horse fires every time and he likes Santa Anita....

re: Handicapping The Travers

Householder — Sun, 24 Aug 2008 03:26:08 GMT

Sunday Silence lost the Swaps as the 1/5 favorite to Prized who later took the BC Turf Classic as a 3-Year old (at odds of 15-1 facing I think "With Approval"). Sunday Silence rebounded well enough to take Easy Goer in the BC Classic on his way to HOY honors. The Swaps is a throw out. Moving C-John back to his home track, back to synthetics, along with the likes of Well Armed and "Insert Pacific Classic Winner...if not Well Armed" makes BB all that more irrelevant in the Classic.

re: Handicapping The Travers

Householder — Sun, 24 Aug 2008 03:11:26 GMT

"I would certainly love to get Big Brown somewhere down the road, hopefully, at the Breeder's Cup."

(Eoin Harty commenting on Colonel John's win in the Travers).

re: Handicapping The Travers

Householder — Sun, 24 Aug 2008 02:53:41 GMT

It looks like the Santa Anita Derby winner likes dirt after all!

re: Handicapping The Travers

Huh — Sun, 24 Aug 2008 00:17:13 GMT

I think that Colonel John showed a lot of ability today by putting his nostril out in front of Mambo in Seattle.

re: Handicapping The Travers

Bradgm — Sat, 23 Aug 2008 17:18:48 GMT

Teaser, One of the most storied and well attended meets in the Country? The mid-summer Derby not a big deal? You guys can be BB fans all you want but don't try to denegrate another race because your favorite isn't in it. I personally think it's better than a specially created grass race with a bunch of nobodies running in it. If the Travers is wide open this year then that justifies the many views that this year's crop of 3 y.o. are way below previous years. I wonder what you guys will have to say if/when BB doesn't run in the Classic, or horror of horrors for you, gets beat by one of the competitiors YOU are proclaiming to be inferior. It would make my day if Zenyatta runs in it, BB shows up and gets whupped. Of course the Breeders Cup isn't what it used to be either. What happened to the exclusivity of it?

re: Handicapping The Travers

Huh — Sat, 23 Aug 2008 15:52:39 GMT

Draynay or should I say ILoveBigBrown: I agree Big Brown should run on the grass to prepare for the BC Classic but why the newly created Monmouth Stakes why not a graded turf race where there won't be nobody horses like he'll see in the Monmouth. But this whole small race situation reminds me of War Pass earlier this year when he ran in an Allowance race and then the Tampa Bay Derby and had a so-so 2nd place in the Wood Memorial and I think it will end up that way with Big Brown losing in the Classic to Go Between or Well Armed.

re: Handicapping The Travers

Teaser — Sat, 23 Aug 2008 15:13:02 GMT

Draynay, great comment about the Travers.Your right, ever since the BC Classic came along the Travers isn't what it used to be. Same with the Woodward and JCGC.

re: Handicapping The Travers

Maggie — Sat, 23 Aug 2008 05:23:30 GMT

Draynay, I never mentioned Curlin in my post at all, so you can assume all you want. Just the idea of running against older competition and on synthetics for the very first time in his life is not a very good thing. I love your passion and your extreme optimisim and enthusiasm for this horse, but he hasn't been all too flattering for me. Yes, I am Tiznow biased, but I am not all together crazy about his crop, either (I just like the fact that I'll be seeing three of his sons running, whether they are excellent horses or not). And by the way, I like Curlin, but I am not a huge fan of his, either. So whatever you say won't hurt me, not one bit. So if you say that from the sophomore ranks to the older ranks that it is weak competition, then what place will Big Brown have in history winning against it? Unfortunately we will never know because once again we'll have a one three-year-old wonder that won't go beyond his own age to really prove it. It really turns me off completely when the connections retire a horse and don't really take proper care of the animal. Let the horse be a horse and grow up accordingly through the winter months like they used to do, but now there are too many racing dates and too many racing tracks that scramble to keep horses running off of fumes year-round. Don't get me wrong; I like Big Brown. Howerver, he hasn't been anywhere near even my top favorites of those who are still in training. And I can't even say that Henrythenavigator is part of what you claim to be the best in the world...he's only that at one mile, 8 furlongs, two less than that of the Classic. I've seen him race on television and seen his past performances, and clearly, he looks the best and performs the best at 8 furlongs. Yes, he clearly is one of THE BEST of the European contingent that might come over hear (after all, it's still too early to make it official yet), but no one is sure whether the Classic field will be full of high quality Europeans. And by the way, Europeans are right at home on synthetic surfaces, and applauded the fact that the Breederscup is going to be run on a surface that isn't foreign to them in the States anymore (unlike the dirt which is an American preferred surface). And as you say that this is weak competition and the biggest names of the Classic division aren't pointing towards the Classic (Curlin, Commentator - remember his 120 Beyer that no one has topped yet or come close?, as well as others), then as you have stated, Big Brown will be whipping up the same competition that has been whipped before and no one else new enough to improve that. Believe all you want, but in the name of horse racing, one must respect and thus make for all possible angles in the game and never keep a closed minded attitude about it (look what happened when people don't respect the grueling races of the Triple Crown - it make it all the more awesome that the Eleven did it, while the three last time champions did it at the same timing sequence as it is today). I respect your passion as a fan, but in his short time of his racing career, he only has two left until he's swept off to stud and never seen again on the track and never will we see his offspring until about 2011, a very long wait for another colt to have the opportunity of becoming a better one. This sport desperately needs sound animals that can go beyond their sophomore years, not lose them because of unsoundness and then go off to the stallion ranks where they produce the same kind of issues on the track as they had themselves. I know you'll argue that they are doing what's right for the horse, but if his feet are all messed up, then he is clearly unfit to even step one sore foot on the track. Patience and letting the horse grow, mature, and be much healthier is the key element, but the connections are not going for that kind of logic. They want the big bucks, and they want it in the $5 million Classic (and most likely win Horse of the Year honors if he wins). After all, isn't that the same kind of mindset that has happened time and time again in the last two decades? Again, not good for the sport...

The King of the Derby, I sadly regret the fact that you didn't have the patience nor the time to committ yourself into reading the rest of the post on my other opinions on the horses. After all, it is in practically the same format as Jason's with a bit more observation coming from me, so if you had the time to read his, then surely you could have respected me by reading the whole thing and by giving me a more substantial response. I make sure I read every post available with careful consideration before I make my post. I never even bet in the Belmont Stakes, but as I predicted several years back with Smarty Jones not winning the Triple Crown, I so had the very same feeling with Big Brown. And I always go with that feeling. He simply wasn't ready, didn't really have enough experience to take on a grueling length of distance, and his pedigree simply compromised his chances (as well as the unusual rankness from start to the first turn that cost him the race). I did wake up and smell the roses and knew from my feelings that he wasn't going to win. Simple. Now, I gave my honest opinion through my feelings and observation of the articles and all that has been leading up to the Travers in my post above, so whether you like it or not, I try to have pros and cons with each of the horses and an "IF factor" on those questionable horses. If you have a gut instinct that Mambo in Seattle is going to win, then go for it, be my guest and bet the horse, but it isn't my money to gain or lose. I'm not even betting the race, because I only bet on the days where it matters the most for me: sometimes the Derby, Virginia Derby every year, and occassionally the Breederscup. But I do watch and root the horses on television because it's less expensive and simply because I don't have the time nor the money with the lack of close proximity to a track. So go what your right as a fan of the sport should do, root for your favorite horse, and good luck!

re: Handicapping The Travers

Householder — Sat, 23 Aug 2008 05:10:26 GMT

Never mind the Travers. The road to the BC for BB should have ran through Del Mar and the Pacific Classic. Go Between, Well Armed, and even Zenyatta have all shown their ability to run over multiple synthetic surfaces. He is much more likely to face the first two than he is C-John, Pyro, or any other 3 year old. These older horses setting track records on synthetics don't much care if Big Brown won the Kentucky Derby. I doubt BB ever sets foot in California. If he does, he looses HOY honors to ZENYATTA.

re: Handicapping The Travers

JordanA — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 23:00:41 GMT

Jason, you rock dude. Draynay biased, oh no not him, I have absolutely no idea who he likes (yeah right) . I liked your suggestion of the Hirsch. If the horse has such bad feet they have to pick and choose where they run him, run him as soft as they can then who are we to fault Curlins people (who I'm not infatuated with either). They're just trying to protect their colt. Difference between them is Jackson is one of the richest men in the World and doesn't need to retire the colt to stud. The market is heading to the, well let's just say downhill. As far as the BC, hmmm they just announced AE's will be taken for the first time EVER. Tell you about the thought process on who's NOT coming to the BC. Designed to be the biggest day (now 2 days) in racing, they've messed with it so much that may become questionable. The ratings tanked last year, 3 big horses have already said they aren't coming. Earlier in the month I planned on a little fiber surfing on the pile of surface in the parking lot until I threw a shoe, ran down on my heels and fractured a sesamoid.

re: Handicapping The Travers

The King of The Derby — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 21:28:51 GMT

C'mom MAGGIE..You lost me at 1. and then when you insanely suggested that BIG BROWN didnt figure in the Belmont. Wake up and smell the roses.

Nine wins the race

re: Handicapping The Travers

Wanda — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 21:09:33 GMT

Sound horses don't burn their heels on dirt,poly,turf or the parking lot in front of my office. Well maybe the parking lot if they run 1 1/8.

re: Handicapping The Travers

Draynay — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 20:18:08 GMT

Maggie: Big Brown and the connections are doing what they have to do to get the horse ready for the Breeders Cup. And yes Big Browns feet are a constant concern. I am sorry that you and others don't like the path he is taking but like the owners I could care less what you think. What matters is they get him ready to run against the best in the world at the end of October. If that means running at Thistledowns or Riverdowns I don't care as long as he is ready to go and wins the Breeders Cup Classic. And by the way please stop with the whole older horse thing. Yes...yes Curlin is very good but the rest are not worth bragging about. You will see at the Breeders Cup just how much better Big Brown is than this weak class of older horses.

re: Handicapping The Travers

Householder — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 20:08:47 GMT

While the Travers is nice the race that will most likely impact the Breeder's Cup this weekend is the Pacific Classic. If C-John's connections thought he could tackle the older horses he would have stayed home for this. His connections must think they have a pretty good shot against this 3 year old bunch. Must consider.

re: Handicapping The Travers

Draynay — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 20:05:47 GMT

Jason...me biased ? Street Sense beat Grasshopper in the Travers last year... where was Curlin? Hard Spun? Any Given Saturday? Most prestigious? Sorry not any more the race that matters takes place 63 days from now and when Big Brown wins the Breeders Cup is ANYONE going to care who won the Travers ? After the Haskell his feet were bleeding why run him on dirt again?

Jason... you have to do what is best for the horse and a good grass course is what he needs to get ready. Sometimes the best path is not a straight line... remember the goal is the Breeders Cup and HOY. I know you would like to see him trounce a bunch of horses he has already whipped but he will have that chance at the end of October.

re: Handicapping The Travers

Maggie — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 19:24:05 GMT

Draynay, one thing I ask, who will Big Brown supposedly "romp" against? Monmouth Park created that race as a political move to lure the top three-year-old colt to come back to their race track. And another thing, since the fans gave the connections and the horse good reception, I'm sure the connections believed they would be much better received there (since so many people have mixed feelings towards them eslewhere). Besides, what better way to preserve the stud value of a horse that came up last in the Belmont Stakes. In my opinion, I don't think of it much of a value increase but rather a value decrease...he'll be facing lesser quality competition in the race. If Monmouth Park really goes aggressive and promotes this race superbly and invite other excellent turfers to come out there, that's one thing, but I don't see that happening. It's a very soft spot, the type of an easy win that the connections are looking for in order to prevent him from facing the likes of older and much better competition. And by the way, Big Brown proves nothing in a non-graded, politically slanted, newly created, relatively less quality field. Neither will the time nor the speed figure help sway me to think of him as any better; they'll surely be distorted because once again he'll be unchallenged going against a weak field.

I agree with Jason on this matter. If Big Brown is such THE BEST turf runner in the nation as you so proclaim based off of one race (not even a stakes race to the say the least), then the connections should be confident enough to place him in a field of other excellent turf runners in a graded turf stakes. However, the move for the Monmouth Stakes just shows me what little confidence they have in their colt, never mind the fact that he is the Kentucky Derby and Preakness hero. It might be because of his feet, but that also brings to mind that maybe they are covering up the truth behind his feet. Maybe they are just too sore and only the turf can help soothe the pain, which is quite an alarming assumption. That also tells me that he isn't sound and healthy enough to even race, a farfetched opinion but clearly a red flag signal for all horseplayers to consider. I direly hope that his feet aren't sore and that the connections aren't running the colt even if they continue to be uncomfortable for Big Brown. If the connections are so desperate to keep his feet in tact, then maybe they should try the synthetic surfaces out in California, which would be the most logical choice to make. Once again, they throw away logical and go for something where they know they can win on and at.

I wonder, if I may ask, what will happen if Big Brown does lose in the Monmouth Stakes, even losing at the smallest of margins? I'm not being doubtful, I just would like to know others real, honest, and logical opinions on this matter. To be quite honest, I hope the connections are doing what's right and what's logical for the colt, so I really hope he wins his next race. I just don't like the way his race schedule is laid out for him, though, seeing as this race and the Breederscup Classic being the last races we'll ever see him participate in his racing career. I just sure hope that whatever happens, I may be proved wrong.

re: Handicapping The Travers

Jason Shandler — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 18:41:23 GMT

Draynay: Who cares about the Travers?? It is only one of the most prestigious and important 3-year-old races in the history of racing! It's more like, who cares about the Monmouth Stakes? What a waste. If they want to run him on turf, at least do it in a graded race that will attract tough runners. Once again, you have shown your completely biased and one-sided opinion of this horse.

re: Handicapping The Travers

Slew.em.All — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 18:40:52 GMT

I've been a Pyro backer since the get-go(last year),so I won't go against him now!I think he's primed for a biggie in what will be his 3rd race of his cycle.He broke tardy last out so they sent him a little too early I beleive,which showed when he hung a tad bit in the stretch..He's been training great and with a clean break he should draw-away from these.He has the best kick down the lane in my opinion,and his odds "should" be decent..also look for Cool Coal Man to put in a good showing(respect Zito)after his respectable 3rd in the Haskell(should improve)..as for the others: Tale of Ekati should also show improvement,Macho Again I think will bounce,Harlem Rocker hasn't faced this caliber before(seems outclassed),ditto for Mambo in Seattle and Court Vision looks to be better on turf..So I'll go:

Pyro w/Tale of Ekati/Cool Coal Man,w/Tale of Ekati/Cool Coal Man w/all,on my Trifecta/Superfecta exotics.

re: Handicapping The Travers

Draynay — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 18:20:19 GMT

First of all, C. John couldn't find the finish line with a road map and why would BB run on dirt AGAIN burn up his heels and minimize his training for the Breeders Cup? The Travers is leading to nothing who cares? Big Brown is on the path to win the Breeders Cup if he loses then you can second guess him... He proves nothing by beating a bunch of horses he has already destroyed. Just sit back and watch one of the great Turf performances of the year when Big Brown romps!!!

re: Handicapping The Travers

Maggie — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 18:15:15 GMT

Hmmm...This sure is a tough one, but an all-around much more interesting race to watch this weekend (other than the Pacific Classic and Midnight Lute making a comeback in the Pat O'Brien back west). I hope everything goes well, and God willing, there be zero incidents and injuries. All in all, I pray for excellent weather and a good, clean and fun showing from each of the competitors!

Speaking of the competition, with this race being so wide-open and very much a welcomed large field of 12, I can't even pick a winner! Well, I'll give my two cents, quick analysis on each one of them:

1. Tale of Ekati (Tale of the Cat): A bit questionable. I would really love to see him improve, especially with the rarely heard and seen confidence of trainer Barclay Tagg, especially heard and seen of in any of his horses in the past. However, I'll pass on him. KEY POINT TO CONSIDER: Edgar S. Prado must not be looked over with him in the saddle and has been one of the top jocks if not then the top jocks in the nation.

2. Colonel John (Tiznow): Been a fan of him ever since his first race. Am a HUGE fan of his daddy (my all-time modern favorite). I dislike the fact how people are using the Swaps as a legit way of observing how he really performs. After all, the field was much smaller in that race and the pace just appeared downright screwy as well as the positioning of the four-some throughout the entire spectacle. He’ll be facing a much larger field, which might help his circumstances. Literally, mostly because of his daddy, his pedigree screams this distance and this kind of surface - dirt. Honestly, I never thought of him as a synthetic performer in the first place, despite his wins in the Real Quiet Stakes last year as a two-year-old and in the Santa Anita Derby during the spring. He had a troubled trip in the Kentucky Derby (whether people don't want to admit it or not) but that shouldn't sway fans from jumping off his wagon. Must be respected, and with the way he has been working and with Eoin Harty being very confident, he is one to be considered. If he doesn't produce an excellent effort, it might be time for him to sit out the rest of the year and come back in the older ranks. After all, Tiznow was a late bloomer and has been producing late developers, the precocious youngster Folklore being the main exception. KEY POINT TO CONSIDER: Garret Gomez pilots this one is another excellent jockey that has the uncanny ability to win the big ones when they count.

3. Da’ Tara (Tiznow): Another one that I followed since his first start. As many of you might guess, I’m a Tiznow F-A-N. Intuitively, I didn’t think Big Brown could win the Belmont Stakes. It wasn’t because of the closeness of the races (and he didn’t look exhausted in the third leg of the Triple Crown – I know what a tired horse looks like during and after a main event and he never had the appearance of being stressed in that manner), the heat, the track, or his feet, but mostly because he just didn’t seem right and mainly because of his pedigree. If anyone really wanted to blame something that is legitimist on paper, blame his mile/ sprinter sire, Boundary. Honestly, I think Big Brown got the jump of the youngsters in the springtime because he was the one with the best speed (and a thought that the others are going to be late bloomers and will eventually catch up to him). Anyways, so I didn’t go for Big Brown, but I went for this guy. Da’ Tara intrigued me because he only had a maiden win to his credit and came from a game second last time out; although, the winner of the Barbaro Stakes at Pimlico lost his next start which didn’t flatter this subject’s form all that much. Clearly the better horse of the rest, including the Derby-Preakness star, I picked him because his sire got the classic distances and I liked the connections – good and honest people. Uncontested from start to finish, he won by a dominating 6 ¼ lengths. I rooted for him to win in the Jim Dandy because I wanted his Belmont Stakes win to not be a fluke and finally see him get the credit he deserved. Unfortunately, he came up the track dead last. Now, he’s looking for redemption extreme. Although, there’s a ton of speed upfront that might prevent him from seeking out revenge over the Jim Dandy winner, Macho Again, one must respect what Nick Zito, the trainer, has in mind for this towering son of Tiznow. Keep in mind, the Travers is run at the classic distance (a distance that I wish MOST of our top grade one races for colts and older horses should be), a classic distance of 10 furlongs (1 ¼ miles) that Tiznow was able to get (remember the 2000 and 2001 Classics?). I hope to see a good effort. KEY POINT TO CONSIDER: The young jockey, Alan Garcia, is up and rode this one to a shocking upset victory in the Belmont Stakes and is making a name for him this year.

4. Tizbig (Tiznow): Wow! It’s going to be a Tiznow field day for me!!! He’s a long shot and put up quite an effort against the speedy Mint Lane in the Dwyer. Has been running against lesser quality competition but has been consistent nevertheless. He’s trained by Mr. Allen H. Jerkens, the well known Giant Killer at the Spa in Saratoga Springs, NY. Another front speedster that will give Da’ Tara a handful on the front end. I’m rooting for him, too (mostly rooting for his daddy to have a successful year and to get the much overdue recognition he deserves). I don’t see him to win Travers, but one can’t completely factor him out with him being trained under the likes of the Giant Killer prowling about at Saratoga, waiting to drop his A-bomb. KEY POINT TO CONSIDER: Cornelio H. Velasquez is the navigator and has ridden the likes of Nobiz Like Showbiz, Teammate, and Sharp Susan as well is the regular rider of reigning Breeders Cup Mile champion Kip Deville and last fall’s Breeders Cup Juvenile champion War Pass.

5. Macho Again (Macho Uno): A very excellent effort in the Jim Dandy with fellow entrant Pyro coming up on the outside. Definitely a factor and very much the consistent horse that most bettors will relish come near post time this Saturday. I can guarantee his odds will be bet down, especially with the Jim Dandy-Travers double being three for three ever since NYRA bumped the local prep race for the Mid-Summer Derby back four weeks instead of three. His game and consistent feats merit respect. Expect him to be in the top four, and never showing a subpar effort. KEY POINT TO CONSIDER: Another young jockey but very much respected, Julien R. Leparoux, has the call on this mount and has ridden many champions thanks in part being under the trainer Patrick Biancone.

6. Cool Coal Man (Mineshaft): Sire was a brilliant runner, but the subject son has done much since winning the Fountain of Youth. Like the connections, Nick Zito-Robert Lapenta (trainer-owner) combination, but am not so sure whether he is quite up to the task. He might need some serious rest and a ton of patience for him to fully bloom into a much mature colt for the older ranks next year. With this being Mineshaft’s first three-year-old crop, Cool Coal Man is what I call an “IF factor.” I’m sitting this one out, though. KEY POINT TO CONSIDER: The top jockey, Johnny Velazquez, is riding this one and is well-renown for riding last year’s Breeders Cup Turf winner over Europeans, English Channel and is a Jockey of the Year Eclipse winner.

7. Amped (Fusaichi Pegasus): A son of the Kentucky Derby winner FuPeg and connected with the same trainer-owner duo as Cool Coal Man above. A nice colt but can’t really like him enough to win the main event. I think he will be quite the major upset if he wins this. Can’t really lean his way, though, so he is eliminated.

8. Harlem Rocker (Macho Uno): Now, here’s a subject I’ve been waiting for awhile to talk about. This Todd Pletcher-trained charge is unbeaten on the dirt, while showing a poor effort on his lone synthetic start for the Canadian Triple Crown. And you’ll hear it from me, he’ll be the one to beat Big Brown if ever they do cross paths at some point (which will never happen now that the Derby-Preakness hero is being pointed to lesser and much softer spots to ensure his stud value remains intact). This sophomore has been kept patiently stored away from the pressures of the American Triple Crown, and with that, we have before our eyes an improving colt who keeps getting better every time. If anything, he’s the most consistent and seemingly unbeatable colt on paper going into the main event come Saturday in the Travers. Although, he hasn’t faced the likes of Macho Again, Pyro, or a free-flyer in Da’ Tara on dirt, he is liable to step up in this venture in his first time appearance in a grade one race. His morning line odds are a bit well odd to say the least but expect the backers to bet those odds down to a much shorter price. KEY POINT TO CONSIDER: Eiber Coa rides him again, making it five for five, the same amount of starts the subject’s has raced in his lifetime.

9. Mambo in Seattle (Kingmambo): A descended of the late 1977 Triple Crown winner in Seattle Slew, this one has the pedigree. Going on a three race winning streak, but against lesser competition. However, one must look and see that the speed figure and the time of his last race were better than the figure and time in the Jim Dandy. So can he compete with graded stakes company in a first time grade one stakes race? We’ll have to find out this Saturday. I like the trainer, but I think this one is a bit overrated. Still, he might jump up considerably and take this one, especially with the looks on paper of being an unknown three-year-old becoming a fan-loved figure come Breeders Cup this fall. An “IF factor” for me. So since I’m a bit doubtful, I won’t take this one. KEY POINT TO CONSIDER: Robby Albarado has ridden this charge four out of the six lifetime starts of this one and is also the regular rider of reining Horse of the Year Curlin.

10. Tres Borrachos (Ecton Park): Who cannot like the name? Three Drunks in Spanish! Although a comical name on paper, his performances have been good thus far. However, his only win to date came in the Swaps Stakes last time out over fellow Travers entrant, Colonel John. A maiden winner, basically. Although, I can see him improving a bit more in the future, I just think he’s a bit out classed and overrated for this group. Ruled out. KEY POINT TO CONSIDER: Tyler Baze has ridden this guy in four of his last four starts but only gaining one win in the process in the Swaps amongst a four-horse field, a smaller field of runners than the Travers.

11. Pyro (Pulpit): Very much the wonder boy coming into the Kentucky Derby when he won the Louisiana Derby earlier this year, but flattened out on first time synthetic surface in the Blue Grass and wasn’t a factor on the first Saturday in May. Came back to win the Northern Dancer but flattened out again in the Jim Dandy. He lost his spark while gaining on Macho Again ever so slowly in the final strides. It just didn’t seem to be the same horse. Although, the Pyromaniacs (fans of Pyro as they call themselves these days), will relish his vengeance upon the last time out Jim Dandy winner and fellow Travers entrant in Macho Again. Can anyone sense a start of a rivalry brewing between the two colts? He hasn’t been really tested at 10 furlongs (the Kentucky Derby must be ruled out of the equation because a 20 horse field is just a rare occurrence in any of the other top races year-round). The 11 hole isn’t a very comfortable spot, but he’s the type of individual that can overcome that circumstances. Expect him to be in the top three.

12. Court Vision (Gulch): On paper, one might take a pass over this specimen. But his effort in the Virginia Derby produced a scintillating performance that I’ve ever seen in the history of the race at Colonial Downs. Believe me, I was there to witness it in person. Despite the fact that he lost by a nose to a very excellent turf horse in Gio Ponti, the effort proved that he can get the distance of the Travers. However, that last race was run on turf, and the current event is on dirt. We are talking about two completely different surfaces. There are many horses that love the grass and many horses that love the dirt, and very few that can be sensational on both. In his two previous run on dirt before the Kentucky Derby, he finished third to fellow Travers entrant in Tale of Ekati in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct and another Travers entrant in Cool Coal Man in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream. His numbers keep improving, but I think his best surface is a good to firm turf course. However, he is liable to win this, especially being taught under the tutelage of the good trainer in Bill Mott. Don’t rule this one out. KEY POINT TO CONSIDER: Kent J. Desormeaux has the call, and rode this one last time out in the heart wrenching stretch duel in the Virginia Derby and is also the regular rider of Big Brown (despite what anyone has to say about it).

Main Competition:

Harlem Rocker, Macho Again, Pyro, Court Vision, Colonel John

Fan Favorites:

Colonel John, Da’ Tara, Tizbig

My Picks:

Colonel John, Harlem Rocker, Court Vision, Da’ Tara

re: Handicapping The Travers

Curlin — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 17:41:21 GMT

Colonel John wins by open lengths. I love the 2nd off the layoff and steady works and think he will be much better 2nd time over dirt. However, just to be safe, I'm going with the Colonel John / Cool Coal Man exacta box. Cool Coal Man's Haskell was a fairly decent effort and I think he will move forward. I've always thought he would be a late developer and I think he is starting to show signs of that. Remember, when the Derby was ran, foal date wise he wasn't even 3 yet and Mindshaft himself was a late developing horse. I'll play my favorite number underneath. That means the all button folks and I'll hope for a bomb to run 3rd.

If I had to choose a sleeper it would be like many other people and be Tale of Ekati. Tagg is usually well reserved, but really has spoken highly of Tale of Ekati's chances. That has to tell you something. So, I guess I'll call the race as Colonel John/Cool Coal Man/Tale of Ekati.

re: Handicapping The Travers

Jason Shandler — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 17:39:35 GMT

Mike S: I agree w/ you on BB. It is pretty sad that he is not in this race. The Monmouth Stakes? C'mon

re: Handicapping The Travers

Mike S — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 17:19:52 GMT

COLONEL JOHN is my pick for the Travers. He's a really good horse who has only had one bad race (Kentucky Derby). In every other race he has won or been no more than 1-1/2 lengths behind the winner, so he's definitely quite a competitive horse. DA' TARA is going to complete the exacta. And <drum roll>...TIZBIG will complete the trifecta. ;)

PYRO, MACHO AGAIN, HARLEM ROCKER and MAMBO IN SEATTLE all merit respect. TALE OF EKATI, TRES BORRACHOS and COURT VISION are way too inconsistent for me! And BIG BROWN is conspicuous in his absence, and his connections look like chickens.