Tough Task to Pick the Favorites

re: Tough Task to Pick the Favorites

Dr Drunkinbum — Thu, 04 Nov 2010 17:37:48 GMT

Zookeeper

I have a bunch of winners, until they race.

re: Tough Task to Pick the Favorites

Zookeeper — Thu, 04 Nov 2010 02:24:41 GMT

Dr Drunkinbum,

I hope you come up with some winners. My brain is scrambled right now, I have to stop and start again tomorrow. :-\

re: Tough Task to Pick the Favorites

Dr Drunkinbum — Thu, 04 Nov 2010 00:10:44 GMT

Zookeeper

This is the most competitive BC in memory with many great races. The Ladies Classic is one, and I'm loving the F&M sprint. It sure is fun to study the pps !!!!! I do wish the Marathon wasn't called a marathon and was at 1 1/2, The Belmont Stakes distance. 1 3/4 on dirt is not really representative of American dirt races. Neither is 1 1/2 but at least The Belmont Stakes is a good barometer, and a big G1. I didn't realize how competive these races were until I really started studying. Wow. Nice BC. I'm only half way through Friday, the first time through. A long ways to go. Whoa nellie !!!!

re: Tough Task to Pick the Favorites

Monty — Wed, 03 Nov 2010 18:37:11 GMT

Quality Road will "back up" Sat. at the 1 1/8 pole as Zenyatta flies by, SEE YA !

re: Tough Task to Pick the Favorites

Zookeeper — Wed, 03 Nov 2010 18:12:18 GMT

Dr Drunkinbum,

May I add the Ladies Classic to your list? I think this will be an awesome race also. :)

re: Tough Task to Pick the Favorites

Dr Drunkinbum — Wed, 03 Nov 2010 04:35:11 GMT

Keelerman

Dirt mile, then juvenile, then mile turf in that order.

Zen's Auntie

I see it as Pletcher catches injuries early before they are devastating, including Super Saver.

jayjay

He must of meant Giants in five. Probably a bureaucratic snafu.

re: Tough Task to Pick the Favorites

Tom FV — Wed, 03 Nov 2010 03:25:43 GMT

Draynay, do voices whisper this nonsense into your ear?

More along the lines of:

"Thus far it's been impossible to beat her. We're hoping a dirt track will help us," Pletcher said. "You have to get a little bit lucky and have a good trip."

Or this: “Obviously that wasn’t the post position we were hoping for...We have to get position leaving the gate. I’m hoping someone shows enough initiative that we can follow them."

The comment you made? Sure.....

re: Tough Task to Pick the Favorites

Pedigree Shelly — Wed, 03 Nov 2010 02:25:16 GMT

Jason , I want to apologize for my computer ! Every time I hit submit, my blog comes up twice :( Maybe Santa will bring me a new laptop for X-mas :)

re: Tough Task to Pick the Favorites

In aint easy being good! — Tue, 02 Nov 2010 23:56:20 GMT

Mike Relva you ready for the Haynesfield show?? All this horse does is win! Love Quality Road but the long layoff and spot 1 and distance limitations equals doom.

Haynesfield is your winner! Quick question how many pound wieght break do the 3 year old get in the classic??

re: Tough Task to Pick the Favorites

Householder — Tue, 02 Nov 2010 23:47:32 GMT

Better QR on the rail than Lookin at Lucky. From 12 he just drops in a little ahead of the 8 horse. Look for Zenyatta to pull herself to within 2 of Lookin at Lucky at the top of the stretch both having to go wide. Then it is just wait time for QR to quit, and holding off Blame if he can close into the soft fractions QR will be setting. Zenyatta will just flat out out run Lookin at Lucky the last 16th just like Ice Box did. Game...set...match.

re: Tough Task to Pick the Favorites

Mike Relva — Tue, 02 Nov 2010 22:25:42 GMT

DRAYNAY

As always you ignore facts. Zenyatta ran down a horse HALF HER AGE that had defeated Blind Luck!

re: Tough Task to Pick the Favorites

Draynay — Tue, 02 Nov 2010 20:43:45 GMT

Reporter: Mr Pletcher Zenyatta has been put up at 8 to 5 and Quality Road is 5 to 1 and comment?

Pletcher: Catching him (QR) won't be like catching Switch.

Jason, I am still laughing at that one. Catching QR is not something any horse looks forward to because on dirt it almost NEVER happens. Blame and the rest won't be getting 5 lbs. Quality Road is on the rail and gone in the Classic. Everyone is running for 2nd.

re: Tough Task to Pick the Favorites

Livesoutwest — Tue, 02 Nov 2010 18:54:42 GMT

Ouch, the rail draw really hurts Quality Road's chances for the win. He'll be forced to go early. By contrast, Zenyatta and Haynesfield, the two I give the best chance to win, drew PERFECTLY (posts 8 & 3 respectively) for their style. I think those two are your exacta box/trifecta keys, with more on Zenyatta in the win slot. I think Lookin At Lucky is most likely to complete the trifecta. I would be surprised if he outkicks Zenyatta though.

re: Tough Task to Pick the Favorites

Householder — Tue, 02 Nov 2010 18:44:23 GMT

Now we know why Baffert takes a walk down to the paddock every time Zenyatta runs. Does he have a "game plan" for Lucky? I don't see this being any different than the Kentucky Derby or his Santa Anita Derby run. He's pretty unidimensional and needs to be placed appropriately. He either goes wide with Zenyatta or gets bounced around behind tiring horses down the stretch which he hates just as much as the rail. "I looked up and thought what the hell is he doing on the rail" (Baffert commenting on Santa Anita Derby loss). He certainly is the x factor at a slight weight break and 3 year olds have done well in this one. He certainly will get the distance and has a run over Churchill. Much to like about the Smartstrike colt. Could be HOY off a win.

re: Tough Task to Pick the Favorites

Householder — Tue, 02 Nov 2010 18:34:27 GMT

It's a one mile oval. QR is not going to know what to make of it and will run off like Careless Jewel. "Quality Road is now shortening his stride." So much for sweeping wide turns that extend for ever.

Another horse that has never been off the board is Blind Luck. 2 million in earnings. Your now betting she's tired? It's your money. Not to sure where Evening Jewel is going but she's right there with Blind Luck on the dirt. On turf she is even better.

"She's ready." (Mike Smith 60 Minutes).

re: Tough Task to Pick the Favorites

Mike Relva — Tue, 02 Nov 2010 17:19:11 GMT

DRAYNAY

Just so I'm clear,all this childish neg. trash you continually post(like a five yr old seeking attention) are you trying to convince us or yourself? Just asking since people that ARE REALLY IN THE MIX like Baffert stating that Zenyatta"gives him goosebumps" when she runs. So,he wouldn't have any knowledge on greatness right?

re: Tough Task to Pick the Favorites

Paula Higgins — Tue, 02 Nov 2010 17:11:50 GMT

2:24 ITA with you. She has to be within 4 of QR, LAL And Blame and be moving fast around that last turn or immediately thereafter. Mike knows this. But her stride is huge and that is her ace in the hole. I also know they will be gunning for her, Mike is going to have ride the race of his life.

re: Tough Task to Pick the Favorites

Johnny — Tue, 02 Nov 2010 17:04:49 GMT

Draynay;

Looks like your first prediction did not turn out.

She arrived in Louisville..

Draynay 0-1 Z 19-0

LOL

Having some fun

Next Drayray prediction she does not make the starting gate..

Then the last she finishes 3rd..

Lets see how the great RayRay makes out..

Got my seat at the Bellagio all ready.

re: Tough Task to Pick the Favorites

Billy's Empire — Tue, 02 Nov 2010 17:02:15 GMT

CD better start saturating the turf course. It would suck if Workforce scratched. Midday looked great this morning.

re: Tough Task to Pick the Favorites

Pedigree Ann — Tue, 02 Nov 2010 15:53:32 GMT

Coldfacts - 'freshness' as a quality of a racehorse is overrated. It may work in sprints, but the longer you go the more fitness you need. And believe it or not, some horses thrive with 'tough' racing rather than getting worn out. Don't swallow the Sheets guys' Kool-Aid.

Windy City - in South America, the seasons are reversed and spring, the foaling season, is August to November. Any horse foaled after July 1, 2007, but before June 30, 2008, is considered a 3yo in Peru, Argentina, Brasil, Chile, and Uruguay, but not Venezuela, which is north of the equator. So a North American foal who arrived in say March 2008 is officially a 3yo down there, while still a 2yo up here. Okay? Clear?

Paula - "Espoir City said he likes Japanese girls better, they aren't competitve with their men." Really? The big autumn wfa race in Japan just last weekend, the Emperor's Cup, was won by a 4yo filly named Buena Vista. Top fillies and mares run in their big races all the time. In 2008, females ran 1-2 in the autumn Emperor's Cup, won by the great mare Vodka, who also won the Japan Derby as a 3yo.

Jimbranch - I hadn't realized that the Japan Cup dirt had been reduced in length in 2008; I remembered it from its 2100m (10.5f) days. So it does look like he hasn't gone 10f yet. Although his pedigree says it shouldn't be a problem - both grandsires have sired multiple Japan Derby (2400m=12f) winners.

re: Tough Task to Pick the Favorites

-Keelerman — Tue, 02 Nov 2010 15:36:06 GMT

To everyone;

Excluding the Classic, which race are you looking forward to the most? I'm eagerly anticipating the Marathon. I've always enjoyed watching really long races and it's going to be fun seeing Awesome Gem take a shot at fourteen furlongs.

-Keelerman

re: Tough Task to Pick the Favorites

-Keelerman — Tue, 02 Nov 2010 15:32:32 GMT

If anyone wants to watch the Breeders' Cup post positions draw, you can see it live on www.breederscup360.com. Here is the exact link:

www.breederscup360.com/2010-breeders-cup-draw

-Keelerman

re: Tough Task to Pick the Favorites

2:24 — Tue, 02 Nov 2010 14:08:11 GMT

Churchill does have a long stretch. However, my memory of the Derby is that very rarely are horses passed in the deep stretch (Giacomo's Derby obviously is the exception). It seems to me that if you want to win at 10 furlongs at Churchill, you make your move around the turn and better be breaking for the lead at the eighth pole. If Quality Road is sitting off the pace in 3rd or 4th position (and I think he will be) and makes a move around the turn, he may be too far clear for the likes of Blame and Zenyatta to catch him.

10 furlongs at Churchill with a 14 horse field is a jockey's race. Blame, Zenyatta and Quality Road all have great jockeys. For Zenyatta's sake, I hope that Mike Smith doesn't have her as far back as Giacomo because I don't think this race will fall apart like that one did. If Zenyatta or Blame are within 4 lengths of QR at the end of the turn, the game is on. If QR is up by more than 4, then in the immortal words of Nino Brown, "See ya, and I wouldn't wanna be ya."

re: Tough Task to Pick the Favorites

Zen's Auntie — Tue, 02 Nov 2010 14:01:44 GMT

A little tidbit – now, the top three Beyer speed figure earning 3 year olds are either retired to stud or on extended layoff due to injury. Eskendereya, Concord Point and Discreetely Mine. 1st and 3rd trained by Pletcher… Hmmm.

re: Tough Task to Pick the Favorites

i tell it like i see it — Tue, 02 Nov 2010 13:21:29 GMT

Very telling that the connections of Gio Ponti will duck Zenyatta to face Goldikova. She just keeps scaring them away like she has all year. Even as she races facing her biggest test past her prime she still scares them off. Can't blame her for running in those G1's when the others were afraid to show up. Go Zenyatta!!