Friday Picks

re: Friday Picks

GunBow — Sat, 06 Nov 2010 09:21:38 GMT

Just finished watching the ESPN coverage(taped).

What a weird day. Anybody else kind of underwhelmed? The Borel-Catellano fight was just...crazy, and the Life at Ten debacle was scarry and sad. I didn't bet the day and wouldn't have played LAT, but I can empathize with those that did. Frankly, I was shocked when Johnny V admitted after the post parade that she felt off. Usually, riders are caught up in the moment. But he was 100% correct. Why he didn't go to the stewards and inform them of his suspicions is beyond me. And once the gates opened, Johnny had no interest in pushing her hard, especially since she was showing him nothing. This was the 2nd choice in one of the biggest races of the year! Again, weird.

2 trends from Day 1.

1) Speed seemed to be doing quite well, especially in the BC races. One reason is that the pace in the BC Juv Fillies and Ladies Classic were a crawl for dirt racing, 1:13 and change in both. Blind Luck was really the only late runner to make much of an impression in any of the BC dirt races. The fact she ran 2nd trying to cut into such a pace speaks to her quality. Earlier in the day, Apart was able to close from behind, so maybe it wasn't the track as much as the pace setups.

2) And this was the key factor- Having a race over the Churchill surface. Dubai Majesty and Unrivaled Belle had both run their best races at Churchill and they ran to that level again. Unlike the last 2 Breeder's Cups on synthetic, the fields were really strung out at the wire for the main track races. After Havre de Grace in 3rd in the Ladies Classic, basically no one else did much running. And some really well backed horses just ran miserably. Secret Gypsy was beaten almost 20 in the Female Sprint, AZ Warrior was beaten 43 in the Juvenile Fillies, and in the Ladies Classic Persistently was beaten 13, Malibu Prayer 26, and Life at Ten was distanced. Weird!

As a Zenyatta fan, the horse I really fear is Blame. He is a Kentucky horse, loves Chuchill, and is very good. He's my choice with Zenyatta 2nd.

Marathon-

Before the myth is created that synthetic horses didn't do well on Friday, keep in mind that Eldaafer was coming off a win on Turfway's synthetic. This race will forever be known for Castellano almost dumping Martin Garcia(amazing athleticism to stay on!) and then Castellano getting after it with Calvin. But congrats to Eldaafer's trainer, Diane Alvarado, a welcome new face in the sport.

Juvenile Fillies Turf-

The Euros appeared subpar, and they were. More than Real won like a good horse while Winter Memories was perhaps a little unlucky. But the best horse on the day won.

Female Sprint-

This is the race I wished I could have bet. I really liked both Switch and Evening Jewel, and they ran to my expectations. Of the others, Dubai Majesty was the horse to beat. Dubai Majesty is a real pro, a warrior, who has run well across the country and on different surfaces. Earlier in the year she ran 2nd, losing only a nose, in the Sunshine Millions Female Sprint on Pro-Ride and was coming off a win on Keeneland's synthetic(so in 2 dirt BC races horses coming from synthetics had won them both). While she is good on a variety of surfaces, Dubai Majesty is best on Churchill's dirt and she ran a big race again Friday. She's definitely the Eclispe Champion Female Sprinter.

Switch, who had also prepped on synthetic, ran a strong 2nd. 7 furlongs was proably a little short, but she clearly proved that she is of the highest quality.

What pains me is that the $1 trifecta with Dubai Majesty-Switch-Evening Jewel paid almost $1 thousand. Who knows if I actually would have played it, but those were the 3 horses I liked most.

Juvenile Filly-

In a race in which the big horses from New York and Cali faltered, the Calder filly Awesome Feather had the best combination of tactical speed and endurance. The time was nothing special, and the race wasn't visually impressive, but Awesome Feather will be the Eclipse Champion.

Female Turf-

In the end, this race just wasn't up to traditional levels. Take nothing away from Shared Account, but when 8 horses are separated by 2 lengths on the wire, it just wasn't that strong of a race. On a very dry turf course, Midday just was flat, and Red Desire didn't move foward off her Flower Bowl. And then there was Harmonious, who completely unfolded coming back in 3 weeks.

Ladies Classic-

Unrivaled Belle has a touch of class, and she loves Chuchill, and when the pace ended up being slow, she had the tactical speed to exploit it. Unrivaled Belle is a quality 4 year old mare, and has only run out of the money once, and even that effort, 4th on Pro-Ride earlier this year, was fairly good. She was a deserving winner.

Honestly, though, it was tough to see Blind Luck lose. There is so much to admire about her. She's been shipped all across the country and has never run a poor race. In the Ladies Classic, she simply didn't have enough pace to run at. As always, her move was electric, and she absolutely left Persistently flat footed. For a second, it appeared Blind Luck would blow by them all, but Unrivaled Belle had something in reserve having sat off that slow pace, running the last eighth in 12 flat. Blind Luck, as she is apt to do, hung a little, with all the travelling perhaps catching up with her. However, she sealed the Eclipse award as champion 3 year old filly.

re: Friday Picks

Zookeeper — Sat, 06 Nov 2010 00:22:41 GMT

Today was a total disaster for me. Congratulations to all who made money today, I sure didn't.

I hope you bet that Trifecta you gave out, Jason!

Dr Drunkinbum,

Calvin was white with rage. I've never seen anything like that before. (At least not in horse-racing) Ooh-la-la!!!

re: Friday Picks

Footlick — Sat, 06 Nov 2010 00:21:43 GMT

I ended up not betting the day, luckily :0

re: Friday Picks

Jason Shandler — Sat, 06 Nov 2010 00:05:26 GMT

Wasnt a great day for me. Juvy Fillies Turf tri saved me though. Hope you guys hit big. See ya tomorrow. Long day.

re: Friday Picks

Mike Relva — Sat, 06 Nov 2010 00:03:36 GMT

RACHEL FAN

It's all the same with you on EVERY POST bashing Zenyatta. Bet it killed you the type of year RA had and to top it off, retired before the year is over.

re: Friday Picks

jayjay — Fri, 05 Nov 2010 23:52:04 GMT

Happy for Prado who has really been out of sight lately. Great ride on Shared Account.

What a day, great day of racing and we still have tomorrow. Only hit I got was More Than Real/ Winter Memories exacta for $5. What a lousy day of betting for me lol.

Congrats to all who hit winners!

re: Friday Picks

Dr Drunkinbum — Fri, 05 Nov 2010 21:57:48 GMT

All I have to say is the &!%$# is lucky they kept Borel from getting to him. It would be all over.

re: Friday Picks

Mike Relva — Fri, 05 Nov 2010 21:36:02 GMT

Too bad Flays' horse won.

re: Friday Picks

JerseyTom — Fri, 05 Nov 2010 21:22:44 GMT

J picked JFT tri in this blog, but perhaps more importantly, HE PUT WIN MONEY ON THE WINNER!!!!! Finally. Only took him a year or 2.

re: Friday Picks

defree — Fri, 05 Nov 2010 21:12:20 GMT

In slo mo, it looks to me like Castellano threw the first punch!!! Wow. Unbelievable that Garcia stayed on and that horse didn't go down.

re: Friday Picks

Dr Drunkinbum — Fri, 05 Nov 2010 20:35:39 GMT

Borel was sucker punched !!!!!

re: Friday Picks

The Bid — Fri, 05 Nov 2010 19:57:42 GMT

Acoma retired after 2 straight grade 1 wins, and a perfect 3 for 3 at Churchill Downs

re: Friday Picks

GunBow — Fri, 05 Nov 2010 18:44:46 GMT

Just to clarify my opinion of Harmonious' chances in the BC Filly and Mare Turf. I think she is a potential star, but Midday is a full-fledged actual star at the peak of her powers. But if Midday is going to get beat, I can really only see Harmonious and Red Desire doing it.

Good luck to all.

re: Friday Picks

predict — Fri, 05 Nov 2010 17:57:06 GMT

To make money Friday just play #8 in every Breeder's Cup race, to show, whatever amount you can afford. You will go home a winner because "8" is this year's lucky number.

re: Friday Picks

Forbidden Apple — Fri, 05 Nov 2010 17:45:14 GMT

Friday pics:

Ack Ack- Apart

Marathon- Prince Will I Am

Juv. F. Turf- Fancy Point/ Winter Memories, New Normal, Kathmanblu

F&M Sprint- Champagne d'Oro

Juv. F.- Believe In A.P./ R Heat Lightning

F&M Turf- Keertana/ Red Desire, Midday

Distaff- It's Tea Time/ Blind Luck, Persistently, Acoma

re: Friday Picks

SGunne — Fri, 05 Nov 2010 17:32:51 GMT

Marathon -- A.U. Miner, Awesome Gem

JFTurf -- Katmanblu, New Normal

Filly/Mare Sprint-- Champagne D, Informed Decision, Evening Jewel

JFillies -- Delightful Mary, A Z Warrior

Filly/Mare Tuff: Harmonious,Miss Keller, Red Desire

Distaff: Blind Luck, Life at Ten, Seeking The Title

re: Friday Picks

Jazzkat — Fri, 05 Nov 2010 17:14:16 GMT

Hell, Zenyatta deserves HOY even if she doesn't win on Sat-simply for the excitement/interest in the sport of racing that she's generated among the public (even non-racing fans know who "Zenyatta" is!)Good luck to all and most importantly-a safe trip.

re: Friday Picks

Tiznowbaby — Fri, 05 Nov 2010 16:16:48 GMT

marathon: Awesome Gen, A.U. Miner

JFTurf: More Than Real, Winter Memories

Filly/Mare Sprint: Gabby's Golden Gal, Champagne D

JFillies: Tell a Kelly, Theyskens Theory

Filly/Mare Tuff: Harmonious, Midday

Distaff: Life at Ten, Blind Luck

re: Friday Picks

Meydan Rocks! — Fri, 05 Nov 2010 15:59:20 GMT

Sherreffs says the surface issue is a "non-issue", She "likes" the surface. Now when/if she gets beat...

;-)

www.bloodhorse.com/.../sherriffs-zenyatta-obviously-likes-surface

re: Friday Picks

Carlos in Cali — Fri, 05 Nov 2010 15:38:24 GMT

Rock, if Hamazing Destiny wins I'll never post here again AND I'll even acknowledge that San Francisco is in California.

He has no shot,so I think I'm good.

re: Friday Picks

katethegreat — Fri, 05 Nov 2010 14:57:02 GMT

There is this thing called "chance" in horse racing.

While we may WANT the big

Z to win, there is a "chance" she

won't. It ain't over til it's over.

re: Friday Picks

lasttofirst — Fri, 05 Nov 2010 14:41:42 GMT

If there is a big closers Track Bias at Churchill I will need to put a little on Calvin in the Ladies Classic. From last to first. I will play 2 front runners and 2 closers in the pick 3-4. Trying to beat the Luck and Pletcher Double team and Dutrow but you have to able to afford to lose entire investment with my strategy.

re: Friday Picks

Ivan — Fri, 05 Nov 2010 14:41:11 GMT

Marathon: Eldaafer, Giant Oak, Alcomo

Juvenile Filles Turf: More Than Real, Quiet Oasis, Together

Filly and Mare Sprint: Evening Jewel, Champagne d'Oro, Rightly So

Juvenile Fillies: Theyskens Theory, Awesome Feather, R Heat Lightning

Filly and Mare Turf: Midday, Plumania, Harmonious

Ladies Classic: Blind Luck, Life at Ten, Havre de Grace

Good Luck.

re: Friday Picks

ilwacocapper — Fri, 05 Nov 2010 14:30:34 GMT

crown of thorns scratched

re: Friday Picks

Zen's Auntie — Fri, 05 Nov 2010 14:30:05 GMT

Rachel fan,

While I agree LAL is a fine well traveled lad what has Blind Luck done wrong to not to enjoy HOY shes not been out of the money in 14 starts won a bunch been to more tracks than a van rat and Ducked NO ONE -

Now I will say its a moot point but lets just say, should it pour they seal the track and Zen waits one MORE year to be HOTY, why then cant Blind Luck be HOTY if she takes the Ladies classic?

and if Goldi beats Goi then OMG what the heck does she have to do for consideration? she came from overseas 3 times if she wins (and Zen doesnt win or run god forbid) why not Goldi she is truely great. Just saying.