Guest Blog: The Decline of California Racing

re: Guest Blog: The Decline of California Racing

oso7 — Sun, 31 Jul 2011 06:50:07 GMT

You are one farcical poster, AAF. You do realize that Jerry Hollendorfer was willing to ship BL back for the Fitz Cotillion and have his filly carry 10 more pounds than HDG because he DID NOT want Blind Luck to run against Zenyatta. Even with that 10 pound differential, Blink Luck only lost by a neck in an ever diminishing margin. She was also running in a shorter race than is her optimum. And your pals had the gall to complain about the 2 pounds given in the Del Cap. Sorry, HDG will be merely a footnote in BL's storied history once her career is over. I guarantee there is no possible way HDG ever catches BL in the number of G1 victories, unless, of course, the Obeah is upgraded to a G1 along with all those other G2 & G3 races she has run in.

BTW, as much as you love slamming Zenyatta's connections, it would be a good idea for you to finally spell John Shirreffs' name correctly

re: Guest Blog: The Decline of California Racing

AfleetAlexForever — Tue, 26 Jul 2011 17:58:41 GMT

Whoops stumble and you fall when you're not very bright Oser, put an L on the front. Its only you and a few others with the inate ability to keep trying to make up stories about why he shipped to run in a 3 yr old race on the east coast. Let's see what you learned in math class if you attended. $750k in the Cotillion or $250k in the Lady's Secret, I would take a guess that you'd run your horse in the $250k race, lol, only an idiot would think that made dollars or sense/cents. Running for Peanuts is not what anyone in the business of horse racing is about, and with the purse structure of 8 or 9 of the major races for f/m all on averaging $175k, who would want to deal with that when the average in the East is $400k. Therefore the fields in these races in the east are contentious, not filled with maiden claimers or allowance optional claimer quality horses. Well looks like i stumbled there because thats all Jerry Moss (the Coward/batman,) and his partner in cowardice (J Sheriffs/Robin) wanted to run against. Seriously these people wouldnt even contest the top races in California ducked them and their inferior fields everytime. Pitiful but again expected from people that beg for HOY votes with full page ads. They should have been fined for such immature, childish actions.

re: Guest Blog: The Decline of California Racing

oso7 — Sat, 23 Jul 2011 13:28:18 GMT

california racing is so bad Hollendorfer is always reluctant to run his top horse there. 6 starts 50% of them outside the state. wow what a stat.

AfleetAlexForever 22 Jul 2011 1:20 PM

How ludicrous is this post by the resident CA basher AAF? He complained non-stop that Zenyatta remained in CA and now has the gall to claim Jerry Hollendorfer shipped Blind Luck east because CA racing was so weak. I mean he can't even keep his stories straight. Thine name is hypocrisy, AAF. Btw, JH did ship east when he didn't want to face Zenyatta in the Lady's Secret. He even admitted it. So try again.

re: Guest Blog: The Decline of California Racing

AfleetAlexForever — Fri, 22 Jul 2011 17:20:45 GMT

california racing is so bad Hollendorfer is always reluctant to run his top horse there. 6 starts 50% of them outside the state. wow what a stat.

re: Guest Blog: The Decline of California Racing

Alex'sBigFan — Tue, 19 Jul 2011 01:25:32 GMT

Oso7,

Thanks for the background info on Lucille Ball and Desi Arnaz at the races. There were many references in their show to horseracing, not only the one I mentioned. There was another episode in which Ricky was presenting a trophy to a jockey at an award ceremony in New York City and Lucy gets the trophy stuck on her head the day of the ceremony, there was one in which Ricky is at rehearsal and he says to his band c'mon let's get to work and stop reading the Racing Form. There was another when Lucy was reading the paper and thought a "young girl had lost her purse" at Churchill when reading something about a filly, maiden, and purse! And I'm sure there were many more references. I thought Lucy was brilliant and way ahead of her time, if only she was still alive today. She was one of my all time favorite actresses. And in those days all they had as far as the media is concerned is a few channels on tv, the radio, and the papers. That's it! With the tecnological advances we have today with the wordwide web and internet, cellular phones, satellites, hundreds of cable tv channels, one would think the marketing of horseracing should be so much easier.

re: Guest Blog: The Decline of California Racing

Footlick — Sun, 17 Jul 2011 14:14:52 GMT

What a great race the American Oaks was. Cambina is one of my favorite horses.

re: Guest Blog: The Decline of California Racing

RW — Sat, 16 Jul 2011 17:45:48 GMT

This article pinpoints a lot of the issues that badly needs to be addressed by the Southern California thoroughbred racing industry (my only experience is with that area). However, to find most answers, one only needs to look at thoroughbred racing outside of California (particularly the Eastern part of the Country). For example, bigger fields and/or bigger purses in many of these areas are attracting bigger size participants on both sides of the racing spectrum (horsemen and racing fan alike). However right-on this article indeed was, it did leave out one very very important aspect of racing decline in California racing... and a decline in any consumer oriented business as a whole. And this aspect deals with the very thing that many a management people of various tracks in Southern California have lost sight of. And it is the respect and interest of the "consumer". These are the Patrons and racing fans that keep things going, i.e., help pay the bills. And every thing is predicated on that; every thing from larger racing fields to larger purses. At Hollywood park (where at I attend), this lack of respect and interest in the racing fan is most atrocious.I have never experienced such ill-concerned, ill-prepared,ill-competent,and ill-mannered bunch of robot-like functioning group of people in my life. Hollywood Park (and I'm sure many other California tracks)needs to completely overhaul their working personel. And this overhaul should definitely start at the top. The track needs to bring in people who have bright and fresh ideas on how to make an experience at the race track such an enjoyable and 'they care about me' experience that not only will they want to come back themselves but also pursuade others to come. If ever you want to see how a good 'consumer oriented business' is run, just visit Disneyland or Disneyworld. They treat customers there with such respect, dignity, and grace (this applies to security personel too)that kids and adults keep coming back. In fact, it would not be a bad idea for Hollywood park to consult with or hire out management from this entertainment group to run their business. Hollywood park also needs to pay attention to the ways and means of the concession stands at the track. Patrons complain a lot about the outrageous high prices and ridiculously long lines. I personally think that if these operators of the concession stands would employ more attendants, then the lines would not be so long and more customers would want to get on line to buy something. Maybe replace the concession stands with track owned and operated vending machines for food and drink.

re: Guest Blog: The Decline of California Racing

hip703 — Sat, 16 Jul 2011 02:49:13 GMT

I dispute the premise of the article.

The last time I checked, in 2010, a California-based horse won Eclipse Awards for Horse of the Year, 3 year old male champion, and 3 year old filly champion, respectively.

The weakest part of the article is the misguided reliance on Beyer Speed Figures from years ago, when horses were training on steroids. Beyer Speed Figures are flawed (they do not take into account pace, weight carried, and lost ground) , and so systematically biased against West Coast horses that Beyer himself was forced, in 2009, to do an upward revision of his 2009 West Coast figures.

And in 2010, several California horses shipped East to win graded stakes races: Zenyatta, Zardana, Blind Luck, Lookin at Lucky, Tuscan Evening, Evening Jewel, Conveyance, Game on Dude, Concord Point and American Lion come to mind. ANd don't forget Dakota Phone, who never wins our West, yet shipped to Churchill to win the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile.

The problems with California relate to the short-sightedness of the CHRB and TOC. The takeout is too high. Period. This is what accounts for the lower attendance, handle, and interest. Also, the small field sizes are definitely a problem. It makes wagering far less interesting.

But it's ad hoc to single out California. There does not seem to be a surplus of excellent horses on the East Coast, either. The fact of the matter is that the two best horses in training are fillies, Havre de Grace and Blind Luck, one from the East Coast, the other from the West.

re: Guest Blog: The Decline of California Racing

oso7 — Sat, 16 Jul 2011 02:35:01 GMT

Some wonderful posts above, not simply addressing the problems in CA racing but inherent within the sport on a national level. My boyfriend of many years refuses to go to the track because he feels animals should not be used in any sort of entertainment. He cannot understand how someone like me, who values all life, could possibly continue to embrace the sport with its breakdowns, horses knowlingly shipped off to slaughter and medical violations, which largely result on a slap on the wrist. Even Patrick Biancone is back training after giving his horses cobra venom.

My family has been a part of racing for over 7 decades and I grew up alongside my grandmother's breeding, yearling and retirement ranches. She loved her horses, had quality, caring trainers and retired her TB's to a life of comfort in large pastures. I wish there were more owners like her. The game for her was one of sportsmanship and a stress on good homebreds, not selling off her stock to a conglomeration filled with 100's of investors in to make money.

I enjoyed reading Alex'sBigFan's post about watching the "I Love Lucy" show which had an episode referencing racing. My grandmother came down every year for the Del Mar meet and her rental home was near the beach house of both Desi Arnaz and Jimmy Durante, both of whom adored racing and were at the track every afternoon. Before they were divorced, Mr. Arnaz was often at the DM track with Lucille Ball. I used to smile at how excited they would get when one of their bets won. We often saw Greer Garson and her husband, Buddy Fogelson, there and at Santa Anita. They were big owners and supporters of the sport--classy and wonderful people. The days of owners like them, Mary Bradley, Lou Rowan, Bob and Beverly Lewis, John and Betty Mabee and so many others is long gone--sadly. A few of them are still here, along with the great old-timer, honest trainers but they are few and far between. The sport has been taken over by those in pursuit of money and breeding glory achieved by fast, fragile horses who stick around on the track for about one or two years before they disappear to the breeding shed.

re: Guest Blog: The Decline of California Racing

Alex'sBigFan — Fri, 15 Jul 2011 22:53:14 GMT

Aaron,

Some very good points. Most of what you say I have rehashed over and over again in many blogs. It will take a concentrated marketing push to infiltrate mainstream America. At the core of horseracing lies the two key elements that need the connection you are referring to, the horse and the fan. It's simple, connect the two. We've seen great examples of this by Jerry Moss and Mike Repole to name a few. And it will take many more of this new "breed" of owner like Mike Iavaronne, Mike Repole, Bobby Flay, Toby Keith, who seem to know how to make this connection work.

Horses have to become household names, as well as jockeys, and made "accessible" to the fan. Promotions to "meet" a horse are great, horses with websites are too, NBC should feature horse stories and profiles throughout the year on some of the major contenders in the big races, etc., even a Bloodhorse Child's Edition which I've suggested with animated horses would be interesting, women and hat contests are good as some tracks do, etc. But in the case of California and the east where it is so expensive to live the economy has to improve as well. With so many Americans, and I forget what the statistic was but it was staggering, living paycheck to paycheck the task is monumental in regenerating interest in the sport to the mainstream. Awareness is a key factor.

Racing must have been magnificent in the glory days. I was watching an old episode of "I Love Lucy" where Ricky was bouncing little Ricky on his knee and Fred said the kid should be a jockey and "so who do you like in the 9th at Santa Anita today kid?" There were so many references to horseracing in the old tv shows and movies, look a reference to California racing right there in a show that was New York themed back in the 1950's! Constant awareness and marketing could bring about that emotional attachment you are referring to between the horses and people but it needs a vehicle other than TVG and HRTV to reach the masses.

re: Guest Blog: The Decline of California Racing

Householder — Fri, 15 Jul 2011 18:34:08 GMT

Ferdinand had no problem breaking from the number 1 post position in the Kentucky Derby. Probably the last to win from there. Youtube his Derby and see where he was going into the first turn. Dead last!

Alysheba also had some problems...stumbling and going to his knees. He was probably one of the best looking I have seen up close. He would kick his hind legs up in the Santa Anita walking ring.

It's nice to see Del Mar out perform Santa Anita or Hollywood Park and it's owned by the STATE OF CALIFORNIA who continues to threaten to liquidate it.

When majority owners and board members are more interested in the land investment and boosting up their failed autoparts stores in Canada than they are the sport this is what we are left with in California. It's Dodger town in racing. How can an owner file chapter 11, restructure, come back as a majority share holder, force the state to waive the synthetic rule via CHRB, and kick OakTree Out all in the same year? The slow bleeding of the better on the take outs for "day to day" operations to appease "investors" is another great example of where the intent is. Not on the sport...

re: Guest Blog: The Decline of California Racing

blunny — Fri, 15 Jul 2011 16:40:38 GMT

The cost of racing for small owners and trainers has driven most out of racing. Bringing a family to racing is expense with parking and concessions. About 4-5 yrs ago CHRB had a strike that shut down the signal and hurt the purse. Small owners & trainers quit

or moved out of state.

re: Guest Blog: The Decline of California Racing

Aaron McC — Fri, 15 Jul 2011 15:22:05 GMT

This post doesnt quite address the decline of California racing, but are my thoughts about the decline of racing nationally and it is in agreement with those who have said above that whatever decline California is seeing is in tandem with much of the rest of the US, just exacerbated by the economic factors and geographical distance, which have given credence to the historical perception of California racing as potentially lesser than East Coast racing (certainly not my belief).

What racing needs is a multifaceted plan to remake its image. And I don't just mean cleaning up its act; all sports have serious corruption problems (college football and basketball's recruiting scandals come to mind) and the public knows it. But what successful sports have, through marketing and through the independent actions of its fan base, is a strong emotional connection. I don't doubt that racing's current fans love the sport, but its doubtful that it will ever again rise beyond the status of a niche sport, mainly because of what it means or fails to mean, rather, to the American public.

Think about football, basketball, and baseball. Many fans grow up playing this sport on local teams, in pickup games around the neighborhood, with friends and members of their family. Obviously this is impossible with horse racing - for most it is purely a spectator sport.

And while bigger tracks help create a spectacle that people want to see, smaller tracks are often depressing to visit, hardly conducive to a family outing which is where a stronger emotional connection might be made. Ive taken my son to my local tracks, Turfway and River Downs, and Id hesitate to to take him again except on stakes days. They are smoky and boring for him. How is an emotional connection to be made for him, unless we hit a winner.

Which is perhaps the biggest conundrum. Gambling, apparently essential to the sport, does not create an emotional connection on the same level as being a spectator/fan. Sure its an emotional connection, but it doesnt provide that selfless immersion in the sport that rooting for a team, individual, or horse provides to a serious fan. Im not saying that one cant gamble and be a serious fan, but its hard to walk that line - and I say that from experience, certainly not to moralize.

And on a cultural level, the 20th century has seen an enormous shift in public perspectives of horses and animals in general. We are far more likely to humanize animals, and feel uncomfortable about using them. In a culture in which either horses and people worked together (from a positive perspective) or humans used/exploited animals (from a critical perspective), horse racing made sense. Which is probably one reason it makes sense to many of its fans - they have some experience working with horses. Yet, obviously, the 20th century has seen a decline in human/horse relations. They are idealized, but merely an image to many, without solid, substantial emotional and intellectual connections. Which is why PETA can win the public relations war without even trying. People care about horses abstractly, from the abstract mentality that thinks animals shouldnt be unduly harmed or abused (unless theyre being eaten), but dont really have an emotional connection to them to care about them concretely, to become emotionally and intellectually engaged fans.

The question then becomes how does racing tap into something that already exists in its potential American fan? How does it foster an emotional connection, given the obstacles it faces? Ive always been curious about how British racing manages. Apparently, according to my British friends, racing in Britain is a popular sport, both over the flat and jumps. How is racing surviving (growing?) in Japan, in Hong Kong, and in Saudi Arabia? And then again, what was it about racing in the mid-20th century US? How did it manage to tap into and foster such an emotional connection among the working and middle classes well into the 1970s? And where did that connection go? Can it be revived?

I do think a judicious use of mass media would work (given that local tracks probably dont have enough capital to foster a fan base - theyre worried about hanging on to those that they have). But the question is, how should the media represent racing in order to regrow it? I have a feeling that promoting the jockeys, trainers and owners, is one way to create a connection, given the obstacles in marketing horses. Make them into personalities; we all know there's enough material there to support several seasons of several reality shows.... And even the gamblers, I suspect, given the recent popularity of poker on TV and online, can be marketed and made into a draw. Big name concert acts just aren't going to do it. Nor is a Kegasus and partying in the infield. Despite the obstacles I think there's a place for racing - but it certainly needs to try harder, and be more creative.

re: Guest Blog: The Decline of California Racing

-Keelerman — Fri, 15 Jul 2011 14:03:57 GMT

GunBow;

Very nice post! I found it fascinating. I too have noticed a decline in California racing over the years, but had never really noticed quite how severe it was.

I've noticed that the early pace of today's races seems to be slower than it was in years past. For example, here are the half-mile fractions from the last twenty-one Hollywood Gold Cups:

1991-2000

1991: 46.90

1992: 46.29

1993: 46.49

1994: 47.00

1995: 45.69

1996: 47.69

1997: 47.55

1998: 46.52

1999: 47.06

2000: 46.41

Average half-mile fraction: 47.06

2001-2011

2001: 46.78

2002: 46.94

2003: 45.71

2004: 46.97

2005: 47.05

2006: 48.65

2007: 48.75

2008: 48.88

2009: 47.94

2010: 50.95

2011: 47.75

Average half-mile fraction: 47.85

The early pace has declined by nearly four-fifths of a second. Do you suppose that this could be influencing the Beyer speed figures, or do you think that this is irrelevant?

-Keelerman

re: Guest Blog: The Decline of California Racing

GunBow — Fri, 15 Jul 2011 06:23:05 GMT

sidekickflats:

Alysheba's 4 year old campaign of 1988 is going to be remembered as one of the last great seasons by a handicap horse. Alysheba captured 6 gr.1 races that year, winning in California, New Jersey, New York, and Kentucky. Cigar's 1995 is the only campaign since that tops it.

Skip Away's 1998 falls a little short because he ended losing the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Breeder's Cup Classic. However, Skip Away from October of 97'(as a 4 year old) to September of 98'(5 year old) arguably topped even the Cigar of 95'. During that designated 12 month span, Skip Away went 9 for 9, with 7 gr.1 wins, won the Bc Classic at Hollywood Park and other big races in New York, Florida, Maryland, New Jersey, and Massachussetts, and successfully carried 131 lbs, 130, 128 and 127, while earning an average Beyer of 116.4.

Speaking of 1997, consider these Beyer facts. Skip Away ran a 125 in the Pimlico Special and LOST(to Gentlemen), Formal Gold ran a 126 in the Whitney and LOST(to Will's Way), and Captain Bodgit ran a 118 in the Preakness but only ran 3rd(behind Silver Charm and Free House).

re: Guest Blog: The Decline of California Racing

Paula Higgins — Fri, 15 Jul 2011 01:46:07 GMT

fb0252 where do you get the idea that every trainer in California injures or ruins their horses? That's crazy and untrue. John Shirreffs for starters is a horse first kind of trainer. The horse always comes first at his stable. Other comments about this issue are very good. I would bet that the cost of living and training in California is off the charts. Comments by oso2 make a ton of sense. Ditto Gunbow. I think the core of the problem is nation wide though. Racing was saved for 3 solid years by Zenyatta, especially, and Rachel Alexandra. We need super stars in this sport to raise its profile and bring people back. But if a super star races for just one year, it's more like a flash in the pan. We need to breed for stamina and keep the horses in the game and not off to the breeding sheds.

re: Guest Blog: The Decline of California Racing

sidekickflats — Thu, 14 Jul 2011 21:10:46 GMT

Gunbow,

You write "As wonderful as these horses were, I just don't think they are equal the horses from the previous 12 year period, 88-99'. "

I was watching the 1988 Woodward just the other day on youtube. What a great race. Alysheba beats Forty Niner at a mile and a quarter in 159.2. That was 1 of his 4 sub 2:00 mile and a quarter's that year if my memory is correct. And included in the rest of the field was Waquoit, Personal Flag, Crptoclearance, Brian's Time, Talinum and Roi Normand. I think that at least 6 horses in that field were Grade 1 winners. Ahh the good old days.

But I'm not sure I would rank Alysheba as low as 5th. But that's a whole different discussion.

re: Guest Blog: The Decline of California Racing

Householder — Thu, 14 Jul 2011 18:29:47 GMT

Jason you certainly lived here during some good years. My teenage track experience began when my older brother took me to Santa Anita in 1982 to see John Henry a horse who I think still holds the record for most stakes wins at Santa Anita. This was followed up with some great years of western dominance in the Triple Crown and BC races with Winning Colors, Ferdinand, Alysheba, and 1989s Sunday Silence. 3 of those also winning the Classic and HOY honors. We've also produced some great filly/mares during the same period with the likes of Light Lite, Bayakoa who held the filly/mare earnings/stakes records until you know who came along, and Paseana. Most of these, however shipped all over the stakes and gained a national following. Who can forget the Meadow Star vs. Light Light ala MC HAMMER show? Apparently Hollendorfer had to tell HAMMER to put a shirt on before entering the Belmont Club house. Who knew?

I also think the Santa Anita Derby gets a bad rap. What about the also rans like Real Quiet, Giacomo, Point Given?

re: Guest Blog: The Decline of California Racing

Shelby's Best Pal — Thu, 14 Jul 2011 17:14:55 GMT

Just back from a trip to the Hollywood Gold Cup. With the Dudes running one two and Twirling Candy right there at the finish, it was a great race. I wish more people were interested. Hollywood Park's infield and grounds are lovely.

re: Guest Blog: The Decline of California Racing

Firethorn — Thu, 14 Jul 2011 16:31:16 GMT

Much of what ills California racing sickens the entire country. One issue that jumps out at me that definitely effects the statistics. First of all there are fewer horses racing and more importantly the horses that are racing are running significantly less often. If a champion horse ran 10-15+ times in the 1940-1980's as opposed to the less than ten times a year now, you would have much less of a chance of seeing that horse running in anyone of the big races today. I don't know if the horses are more fragile, but looking at the records, the statistics are frightening. Good heavens, I remember when Secretariat retired with only what 21 races! People were appalled that he was not going to race as a four year old. How many races did Street Sense, Hard Spun, Any Given Saturday, Big Brown,Looking at Lucky, Bernardini etc. run in before they were off to the breeding shed Did any of them even run 20+ times? No, heck Tapit only ran six times...six. Heck Curlin did not even run 20 times! Bold Ruler won 23 of his 33 races, and 11 were major stakes. But right about that time, they became more valuable as stallions then as race horses, Mr. Prospector (14 races), Raise a Native (4 races), Danzig (3 races), AP Indy (11 races), Storm Cat (8 races) and his "Iron Horse" son, Giant's Causeway (13 races) even the mighty Northern Dancer did not race twenty times.

Hello! Why can we see the problems but the people breeding and selling can't?

It isn't just a California issue.

re: Guest Blog: The Decline of California Racing

fb0252 — Thu, 14 Jul 2011 16:31:15 GMT

Nice post! There are many answers. The biggest factor is the one most overlooked: CA trainer, like trainers everywhere, injure every single horse they get a hold of. The saying goes, there are not two owners in the State of Texas (other than owner/trainers). Reason: every owner is driven out of the game by the negligence in horse handling of our trainers. Look it up.

re: Guest Blog: The Decline of California Racing

Pedigree Ann — Thu, 14 Jul 2011 15:22:30 GMT

Has the workers' comp issue been sorted? Because that was one reason that is was so expensive to train in California. In the olden days, when I started going to the races in SoCal (1970), nearly every horse in the barn ran every two weeks or so, stakes horses included. Even up into the 1990s, all the same horses came out for the preps before the Big Cap or the Gold Cup, hoping that a change in weights or distance would give them a better shot.

I don't know why trainers suddenly decided that they have to space the races farther apart in the 'aughts', but that strategy means that we now have too many stakes races for the stock available. Ditto for allowance and overnight races. Back in those days, a major track would have a single stakes on Saturday and one or two during the week - prep races or restricted types, ususally. Blacktype was harder to get. Nowadays, the big tracks trot out 5 or 6 on every weekends, not to mention the weekday overnights and n3xs that they designate as 'stakes' race. Eliminate half the stakes races and you'll see bigger fields in the better races. Consider the Strub (the old Santa Anita Maturity) and La Canada series; once, they served a purpose - giving the classic generation one last chance to run the Derby/Oaks distance with their own age-group. But the races been shortened and marginalized and should be honorably retired; let the 4yos run with the 4 and up.

re: Guest Blog: The Decline of California Racing

JerseyBoy — Thu, 14 Jul 2011 11:57:07 GMT

Jordan:

I suggest you take a look at today's program at Belmont Park. The card includes 5 claiming races. Two of these are for the claiming price of $12500. One is on the Turf.

There was a time when the minimum claiming price was $35,000 for turf races at Belmont Park. So the decline you are talking about is not limited to California. In fact, I have not visited a race track for about 20 years because of this decline.

It makes no sense to go to a track when there is only one race worth betting on.

The decline in betting might be due also to a change in people's behavior, similar to the decline in heavyweight boxing. Remember the days of Mohammad Ali, Joe Frazier, Sonny Liston,etc?

As an aside, why did you use Beyer figures when you could have used scientifically computed figures such as the DRF-Track Variant numbers? Using Beyer figures is similar to a doctor trying to judge a patient's weight by looking at the patient, even though the nurse has weighed the patient and put the weight on the chart.

re: Guest Blog: The Decline of California Racing

GunBow — Thu, 14 Jul 2011 11:50:35 GMT

Ultimately, when determining if there has been a national decline in the thoroughbred racing product, it comes back to the quality of our best horses.

The last decade+, from 2000-2011, has featured some outstanding horses, particularly on the female side. We have had Zenyatta, Rachel, and Azeri, while on the male side we have had Curlin, Tiznow, Ghostzapper, Invasor, and Point Given among others.

As wonderful as these horses were, I just don't think they are equal the horses from the previous 12 year period, 88-99'. Those years featured males Cigar, Sunday Silence, Easy Goer, Skip Away, Alysheba, Holy Bull, Silver Charm and females Personal Ensign, Go For Wand, Bayakoa, Paseana, Serena's Song, and Inside Information. Had Curlin raced in this period, I would rank him no higher than 5th among males, alongside Alysheba but below Cigar, Sunday Silence, Easy Goer, and Skip Away.

So, it's not just in California that the stars of today do not fully measure up with those of 20 years ago. At the national level, we are seeing fewer truly great classic horses. To explain this decline, we must analyze a breeding industry that seems to be producing more fragile and shorter-winded thoroughbreds. We also need to look at the impact medication policies have had on breeding and racing, and whether it has contributed to perpetuating unsound runners.

As it was in the analysis of California racing, changing demographics is important in explaining the national decline. While there have been owners and trainers that have relocated from California to other areas in North America, others have simply decided to get out of the game entirely. With relative declines in purses at tracks throughout North America, a number of owners and breeders have had difficulty making racing in the continent profitable. And this doesn't even include those owners and trainers who retired or passed away, or those potential owners who never pursued their interest in the sport due to economic concerns. At quick glance, it doesn't appear the owners, breeders, and even trainers that have exited the game are being replaced either in numbers or quality.

To make matters worse, with purses either stagnant or even declining, North American racing becomes increasingly uncompetitive with racing in areas of the world that are experiencing growth in attendance, handle, and purses. Tracks in Asia, Australia, Dubai, and to a lesser extent, Europe, are offering top dollar for the best racing talent. The result is that owners who, in the past, would have raced in North America are turning their attention towards these other locales.

One only has to look at the quality of the group 1 stakes in Europe, Japan, Hong Kong, Australia, and Dubai to realize that the top horses have followed the money. And it seems like every year, these areas produce at least 2 or 3 legitimate all-time great runners. A few days of Royal Ascot alone showcased the likes of Goldikova, Canford Cliffs, Frankel, and So You Think. Any of those 4 horses would be the undisputed top ranked runner if they were stabled in North America.

re: Guest Blog: The Decline of California Racing

Dawn in MN — Thu, 14 Jul 2011 11:34:46 GMT

Jordan,

Provocative topic.

I'm of the opinion that the trends you examined are just a microcosm of the ills of racing in general.

Numbers can be fickle things.

Nobody knows for certain who first coined the phrase;

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."

Whether or not the decline of Thoroughbred racing is worse in California doesn't belie the fact that Thoroughbred racing is losing the respect and interest of sports fans. There is a moral to this story.

A sport that allows its athletes to go to slaughter will never win the hearts of new fans. A sport that allows its athletes to go to slaughter loses existing fans. A sport that is rife with cheaters and liars is on the wrong side of the moral coin.

If racing cannot clean up its act the decline will not turn around. Even if racing does clean up its act there are no guarantees that a clean up will stop the chronic wasting disease that has occurred.