Is Havre de Grace the BC Classic Favorite?

re: Is Havre de Grace the BC Classic Favorite?

Slew — Sat, 17 Sep 2011 23:55:23 GMT

DR D: My daughter is fond of saying, "If there's a heaven, it's made of Hershey's Special Dark." I live about 100 miles from Hershey; my sons live much closer, and my grandchildren work at Hershey Park. Yummmmmmmmmmm!

Workforce won the Arc last year, and came to the BC but decided not to run. And O'Brien has had SYT for this year only. He was originally trained by Bart Cummings in Australia. I hope he wins everything, but most important, I pray he stays sound and does well. He's just soooo handsome!

re: Is Havre de Grace the BC Classic Favorite?

Dr Drunkinbum — Sat, 17 Sep 2011 00:49:19 GMT

Slew

I know, and I have suggested that as a possiblity ONLY if he comes out of the Arc very strong and raring to go again within a few weeks and gets to CD early and has numerous gallops and a bullet work on the dirt track, and I would only go for it as a double or if SYT is in the top three in the Arc, otherwise it's time for either a rest or possibly the BC Turf. It might be the BC Turf anyway depending on how he seems to like the CD dirt track. This is a valuable champion and it would have to be all systems go. I love the Arc move as sharp as he is. Don't get the Arc win and then ship him to CD three days before The Classic and run him in The Classic still tired from the trip and a tough campaign and unaccustomed to the CD dirt surface. And there is nothing wrong with an Arc and BC Turf double either. The Arc is really tough to win. That alone is a major, major accomplishment and we shouldn't expect anything beyond that. It's as tough to win as The KY Derby is. I can tell you one thing, it would be quite a relief to be able to eat a nice chocolate hat rather than a felt one. I may have bit off more than I can chew. Yikes !!!!

re: Is Havre de Grace the BC Classic Favorite?

Slew — Fri, 16 Sep 2011 23:34:59 GMT

Hey Dr D: Arc and Classic...4 weeks apart...SYT just might be the super horse who can pull off the double. I'll work on the hat. Shaved dark chocolate would work, as long as you're nice to SYT.

Oso7: Best to preserve your own sanity....no problem.

re: Is Havre de Grace the BC Classic Favorite?

Dr Drunkinbum — Fri, 16 Sep 2011 19:42:15 GMT

oso7

I may not be an AOB or Coolmore fan but I am a So You Think fan and love his current form and will absolutely be rooting for him in the Arc. Fan of horse supercedes all else especially on French soil, ur grass. My dissatisfaction with AOB has nothing to do with his Euro campaigns anyway. It's his placement of horses in the U.S. that is sometimes absurd to me. Thanks for the kind words. I like chocolate but don't think you can make a hat out of unsweetened chocolate. I'll stick to felt should that unlikely event occur previously alluded to and binded by contract.

re: Is Havre de Grace the BC Classic Favorite?

oso7 — Fri, 16 Sep 2011 19:24:55 GMT

DR D: As much as I luv ya, if SYT takes the Classic...you'll have no choice. You already chose a Derby concoction. I get to choose the ingredients...which might have been sweet and tasty were it not for your poison pen. (can't help myself. SYT is simply too beautiful and strong to ignore....much like you and your wicked sense of humor.)

oso7: your tragedy has been severe, and I understand the urge to lash out. However, AAF has proven to be insultingly subhuman at best, to everyone, and he's not worth your agony or time.

Slew 15 Sep 2011 9:05 AM

Thank you, Slew. I appreciate your advice.

Kate

re: Is Havre de Grace the BC Classic Favorite?

Dr Drunkinbum — Fri, 16 Sep 2011 01:08:39 GMT

Slew

Once they found out my hat was at risk they decided not to go for The Classic. I'm not seeing 12f as a problem for SYT. The surface condition is the key. He's ready to roll in the Arc and I'll be rooting for him.

re: Is Havre de Grace the BC Classic Favorite?

Slew — Thu, 15 Sep 2011 13:26:22 GMT

DR D: The chapeau will be edible since you won't have to take a bite. So You Think will run in the Arc. (I don't think 12f is to his advantage...whereas 10f would have been. But he's tied with Frankel for the Cartier HOY right now)

re: Is Havre de Grace the BC Classic Favorite?

Footlick — Thu, 15 Sep 2011 13:18:29 GMT

Dr Drunkinbum- I'm not going to go back and forth about this because you have an ax to grind wigh Coolmore and AOB. In 2007 he finished third in the Eclipse at 10 furlongs. The winner won by 1.5 lengths, but the Epsom Derby winner, Authorized only beat him by a head for second. They felt he could stay the trip. It is unfortunate that he broke down. If you feel it was their fault because you feel he was ill-prepared and he didn't belong, then that is your opinion.

As of now you are getting your wish and SYT is being pointed to the Arc as long as turf conditions are suitable.

re: Is Havre de Grace the BC Classic Favorite?

Slew — Thu, 15 Sep 2011 13:05:21 GMT

oso7: your tragedy has been severe, and I understand the urge to lash out. However, AAF has proven to be insultingly subhuman at best, to everyone, and he's not worth your agony or time.

re: Is Havre de Grace the BC Classic Favorite?

Dr Drunkinbum — Wed, 14 Sep 2011 22:21:10 GMT

Slew

AOB is 4 for 63 in the Breeders Cup which is 6%. He's zero percent in The Derby. He's zero percent out of a bunch in the Classic. I'll pass on your poisonous hats and stick to felt if a miracle occurs. It's chewy but with a beer chaser it won't be too bad. Thanks though.

re: Is Havre de Grace the BC Classic Favorite?

oso7 — Wed, 14 Sep 2011 19:44:42 GMT

I guess Blind Luck just showed in today's workout that she is just fine. I suppose Jerry Hollendorfer wasn't hiding anything after all.

Blind Luck (4-Year-Old Filly)

Your comments for this horse were: Ultra-impressive winner of the Hollywood Starlet

Date: September 14, 2011

Track: HOLLYWOOD PARK

Distance: Five Furlongs

Time: 59:20 Handily

Track Condition: Fast

Surface: All Weather Track

Rank: 1/39 - See the day's workouts

Btw, making fun of someone who is crippled in an accident is beyond getting a "petty" response from me. You went beyond the bounds of decency and didn't even have the class to even apologize for it.

re: Is Havre de Grace the BC Classic Favorite?

Slew — Wed, 14 Sep 2011 19:03:26 GMT

DR D: Ahhh, sweetheart, I was all set to make you a lovely edible creative chapeau with salad fixings, topped off by cotton candy. Now, me thinks inedibly with asbestos shingles topped with fiberglass.

Aidan O'Brien has won so many Group 1 races, they're too many to mention. Since 2000, he's won 7 Irish Champion Stakes. Dylan Thomas won the Arc. He's trained Gallileo, High Chaparral, Giant's Causeway, Black Minnaloushe, Johannesburgh, Powerscourt,Dylan Thomas, Mastercraftsman, Lillie Langtry, Misty For Me, etc. I would think that SYT goes to the Arc OR the BC Classic, not both, and might be retired to stud after either. They just paid $25 million for 50% of him, and Coolmore will earn more return with So You Think at stud.

My problem with US bred horses is that they're sprinters and milers. Only the AP Indy line is producing classic distance horses. Havre de Grace can handle the distance, but she couldn't touch Snow Fairie. She may also not get past Tizway. Goldikova is a favorite for the turf mile, but she's been beaten by Canford Cliffs. I think To Honor And Serve is getting back to form, and may surpass Stay Thirsty, who I also like.

If So You Think doesn't come to the Classic, I'd lean more heavily on Tizway or Apart, sooner than most of our 3 year olds.

AAF: there have been 26 BC Classics. I already mentioned French-bred Arcangues in 1993. I should have also mentioned Raven's Pass(UK Gosden) in 2008, place horse was Henrythenavigator (UK O'Brien), show was Tiago, who all came in ahead of Curlin. That's 10%...even though I do not need to use all my fingers to count them. By the way, how many mares, in it's 26 year history, have won the BC Classic? Oh...now don't choke on that one! So it looks as though a Euro has better odds of winning than a mare...

I often favor longshots, but in the case of So You Think, he'll usually be a favorite where ever he runs....and I just can help feeling exhilarated every time I watch him run.

re: Is Havre de Grace the BC Classic Favorite?

AfleetAlexForever — Wed, 14 Sep 2011 15:32:32 GMT

I believe it’s called a difference of opinion Slew, that’s pretty simple, as I am sure that you have your opinion as I have mine. Yours being a great deal farfetched due to the fact that again you can’t really use all five fingers to count the number of horses that have translated turf form to dirt form in winning the Breeders Cup Classic. But I don’t have a problem being on record, As of right now if Havre De Grace doesn’t run in the BCClassic, Stay Thirsty would be my choice to win the race, if Gracie runs then he would drop to 2nd place on my list, followed by Twirling Candy and most likely Flat out or Tizway. That’s a nice Superfecta right there.

Grace

Stay Thirsty

Twirling Candy

Flat Out

Unfortunately after giving my opinion, I didn’t just leave it at that, I gave factual evidence, proof that gives indication that SYT would be up against it in the BCC, if he’s good enough to win it on dirt, then he can beat me as he won’t be on one ticket, that’s fine, I laughed all the way to the window with Blame taking down a horse that couldn’t beat the best field assembled on dirt last year, the sentimental favorite. Swale, oh ye loyal follower of Oso, I have given you picks before, I gave you my choice for HOY in 2007, Curlin, in 2008 Curlin, in 2009 Raitch and in 2010 Blame. I gave you your Derby winner in 06, and the Classic winner also, in Invasor, I also gave you the Cali hope of Lava Man and advised he would finish up the track. Que the drums, and he did as expected. So I posted my choices as of right now, oh and let me give u my BCLC choices just in case there is a need to be on record there. If Grace goes in the LC which I suspect she wont, the exacta will be a cold, Havre De Grace and the up and coming talent in Royal Delta in second place. This horse is living up to what I expected after seeing her romp at Saratoga last year, she is a serious filly.

Oso, sad that you’re so vain to think that everything is about you, it really isn’t, the pity is that you keep bringing up the same things over and over again, get over it, be a grown up and stop being so obsessed, every other statement you make is AAF, its really got to stop. Some people think you are better than all of this petty back and forth, prove it and move on.

re: Is Havre de Grace the BC Classic Favorite?

Dr Drunkinbum — Wed, 14 Sep 2011 14:59:16 GMT

Footlick

Since all of George Washington's wins were on turf at a mile or less, and his only career dirt race was a 6th in The Classic the year before and his current form wasn't his strongest I don't see how he belonged in The Classic in 2007.

re: Is Havre de Grace the BC Classic Favorite?

Footlick — Wed, 14 Sep 2011 03:12:29 GMT

Dr Drunkinbum- actually if he goes on the Arc it will be an afterthought as they have strongly mentioned the Champion for him. The Arc is a tough race to win as an afterthought. Many can't win even when pointing to it. I think he should go in the Champion which was probably their first choice.

As for your dislike for AOB and Coolmore, many have the same dislike. But, as talented as George Washington was, he was not SYT. I am not saying that SYT will win, but I also am not questioning the ability of a horse who runs 10 furlongs better than any horse in Europe and is a GR1 winner on two continents. It was tragic about George Washington. I don't know, unless you know first hand that the horse was unsound or was treated badly, that you can blame the connections, unless as I say you have proof of mistreatment. His horses usually tail off in the fall, so that might be against SYT.

As far as horses taken out of stud and put back in training, Precisionist comes to mind, and though he had lost a step he was still competitive.

re: Is Havre de Grace the BC Classic Favorite?

Dr Drunkinbum — Wed, 14 Sep 2011 02:50:24 GMT

Footlick

I still say that AOB will not win a BC Claasic or Derby. The future of my hat depends on this opinion so I don't take it lightly.

re: Is Havre de Grace the BC Classic Favorite?

Dr Drunkinbum — Wed, 14 Sep 2011 01:01:11 GMT

Footlick

My mistake- George Washington was not off for a year, he hadn't raced on dirt for a year, and the 2007 was only his 2nd career dirt race I think. For some reason my memory was telling me that he hadn't raced for a year which was incorrect. Bureaucratic snafu. Still, at the time, prior to the race I didn't think he should have been entered in it, then the breakdown was horrible.

re: Is Havre de Grace the BC Classic Favorite?

Dr Drunkinbum — Wed, 14 Sep 2011 00:51:50 GMT

Footlick

First of all he belongs in The Arc. From that point it would depend on how he comes out of the race. He could pass the BC completely or go for The Classic, or The BC Turf. If he wins The ARC then they may very well go for The Classic. I have no idea how well he would run on the CD dirt surface but the timing could be a bit off and in my opinion AOB often has talented horses that aren't properly prepared or placed for the BC or Derby. I am not a fan of his. I think he is overrated, and that's how all of this started. And I'm not really over what he and the owners did to George Washington by throwing him to the wolves in the 2007 Classic (in which he broke down during the race and was euthanized) after having no races for a year. I'm not a fan of taking a stud out of duty and putting him back in racing anyway. I'm sure there must have been a success story or two but off the top of my head I can't remember any.

re: Is Havre de Grace the BC Classic Favorite?

Dr Drunkinbum — Wed, 14 Sep 2011 00:39:34 GMT

Footlick

No I haven't talked to them. It's a double reverse psychology with a twist statement, on the rocks.

re: Is Havre de Grace the BC Classic Favorite?

oso7 — Wed, 14 Sep 2011 00:27:49 GMT

I think Coolmore needs to check with the ultimate authority in racing, Afleetalexforever, as to what they should do with their horse. He is Mr. Answer Man.

P.S. AAF~loved your veiled, sly message about "wipes" in your earlier posting. For those who don't understand the reference, my identical twin sister suffered a severe brain injury on April 1st. She is now partially paralyzed on her right side and is unable to walk. So AAF asked me on the TVG board if I were keeping enough baby wipes on hand, now that she is finally home. TVG gave him a lifetime ban for that little remark. What a pity. He is so missed there, but good to know Jason still allows him an open forum to put his nonsense on for all to see.

re: Is Havre de Grace the BC Classic Favorite?

Swale1984 — Tue, 13 Sep 2011 23:56:30 GMT

Slew, don't you know that AAF doesn't HAVE to give us his picks? Over the years, he's used misdirection and denigration to mask how little he knows about the sport. See above, where evidently he thinks he knows more about the sport that a colleague of this blog's host. I've never heard someone denigrate STEVE HASKIN before. That's a new low.

Of the other possibles for the BCC, I see no other horse that I have confidence in getting 10F at Churchill. I don't see HDG as a true 10F horse, and most of our handicap horses seem to be happiest at 9 furlongs and will be crawling home. The other horse Coolmore nominated to the BC, Await the Dawn, is another that could be running by our "top" (and I use that term lightly) horses in that long CD stretch. He's by Giant's Causeway and has stamina to spare in the female family, will both Mill Reef and his son Shirley Heights, and the tail female family is descended through Roberto. If SYT skips the BCC and Await the Dawn comes, that's my horse. (See, even I can make a pick!)

re: Is Havre de Grace the BC Classic Favorite?

Footlick — Tue, 13 Sep 2011 21:46:54 GMT

Dr Drunkinbum- have you spoken to Coolmore or AOB? Did they tell you that they feel So You Think has no chance in the BCC? I was just wondering how you know they feel that way? They have said nothing of the kind in any interviews they have given on the subject so I assume you have a contact within their organization.

re: Is Havre de Grace the BC Classic Favorite?

Footlick — Tue, 13 Sep 2011 20:16:47 GMT

I'd just like to say the claass of SYT in unquestionable. His dirt ability is the question. If he can transfer his form to Churchill dirt, he totally outclasses any of our horses in that race. JMHO

re: Is Havre de Grace the BC Classic Favorite?

Slew — Tue, 13 Sep 2011 18:07:46 GMT

I should add, that through all the muckraking...AAF NEVER gave us HIS choice to win the BC Classic. Odd.

So much to say with so very little said.

re: Is Havre de Grace the BC Classic Favorite?

Slew — Tue, 13 Sep 2011 17:59:58 GMT

This blog appeared to be about who we thought would win the BC Classic. I think it's So You Think. Apparently, so do most of the handicappers around the world, because he has the lowest odds. Timeform rating for SYT is 142, and he's favored to win the Arc. If he comes to the BC..if..if..if.

Everyone has their own opinion. That's a good thing, because we then can discuss the merits of our choices.

Then along comes AAF, who seems compelled to write a novella denigrating everone else and their choices. It would appear that he is unable to make any choice without smearing the opposition. What a terribly depressing world he lives in. Sounds too much like politics...all hot air and no substance.

Every horse going to the BC will have earned their right to be there. I, personally, can't wait to see the top world talent gathered on the same stage.

Horses I'm disappointed that we will not see...Black Caviar and Frankel. But I'm thrilled about the horses we will see. Perhaps we should remember, a good horse usually favors a preferred surface, but a GREAT horse can run on anything.

2:24..see, you're just making me ever so green with jealousy...but Slew was a miracle...wasn't he?