Female Handicap Division Heating Up

re: Female Handicap Division Heating Up

LAZMANNICK — Sun, 25 Sep 2011 02:36:40 GMT

JerseyBoy

He was sensational. Like I said, early in the year he was my Derby horse until he dropped out. I think that he has it all together now. What impressed me was the way he let Lezcano rate him, running nicely in second and then exploding to the top. Here is another point. There were four races run at a mile on the card. The average time of the four of them was 1.38.14 seconds. THAS had the lead when they hit the mile mark today and his time at that point was 1.34.65 which was faster than the mile track record set in 1985. His time for the 9F on a track that runs year round and runs a lot of 9F races was not only a stakes record, but the best 9F time in at least three years. If he will let them rate him in the BCC, I don’t see a horse beating him.

re: Female Handicap Division Heating Up

Footlick — Sun, 25 Sep 2011 02:22:26 GMT

JerseyBoy- I believe you are right. I feel that he is still improving also.

re: Female Handicap Division Heating Up

JerseyBoy — Sat, 24 Sep 2011 23:19:57 GMT

LAZMANNICK:

To Honor And Serve set a Stakes record. He was 0.34 secs off the track record.

However, it was not his best effort. He is better than this.

I do not know the real reason Velazquez chose to ride Rattlesnake Bridge.

Whatever his reason was, I still unloaded. I cannot believe he was not odds-on.

re: Female Handicap Division Heating Up

Shutterbug — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 21:12:56 GMT

GunBow: While I value and anticipate your posts, I do disagree on certain things. I don't believe the #1 objective of Team Zenyatta in bringing her back to race in 2010 was to beat Rachel Alexandra. I believe it was to win HOtY, after coming so close the two previous years. Yes, initially the path to that goal went through Rachel, but after her loss to the B-Team -- sorry Zardana, I love you -- the bar was lowered and they continued on the path that won her two consecutive BC races and two consecutive Eclipse Awards. Btw, I would have loved to have seen her win the Hollywood Gold Cup.

re: Female Handicap Division Heating Up

LAZMANNICK — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 19:28:27 GMT

JerseyBoy

I hope you are right. THAS was my top Derby pick early this year until he was injured and he was always one of my favorites.

As far as history, it is similar to past performances, something to review and maybe give us past info, but in no way something that will have an actual affect on the race.

re: Female Handicap Division Heating Up

JerseyBoy — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 17:05:53 GMT

LAZMANNICK:

In every race, history is a non-starter. What matters is who the horse you like is running against in the current race, not what happened yesteryear. I never follow history.

Remember, THAS was found to have an injury earlier this year.

re: Female Handicap Division Heating Up

LAZMANNICK — Fri, 23 Sep 2011 05:07:39 GMT

Jersey Boy

I hear what you’re saying about To Honor and Serve and I agree that in every race that he lead at the 6F marker, he won. However, take a look at those races. Two were last year and in each there were only 4 competitors running against him. In every race since then (until his last), he tried to make the lead and couldn’t and faded (possibly because he wanted the lead and didn’t like being rated). In his last he pushed a really fast pace and controlled the race winning easily, but they were optional claimers and the second place horse was actually claimed out of the race. Still, by far it was his best race and IMO makes him the horse to beat in the Pennsylvania Derby.

As far as the BCC, he has history to try and buck. Since 1990, 21 editions of the BCC, only five horses have had the lead at the 6F marker and continued on to win the race. Further to that, only three of the five actually wired the field and lead all the way, while two (Cigar and Skip Away) came from behind to grab the lead by the 6F marker. Four of the five horses would also be voted HOY with one, Skip Away not winning HOY that year, but winning it the next.

• In 1991 Black Tie Affair (CD) wired the field and drew off to win by 1-1/4L in 2.02.4. That win was his seventh in a row to finish the year and he was voted HOY.

• In 1995 Cigar (Belmont) stalked the pace setters and was never more than a length or so off the pace, took the lead before the 6F marker and lead the rest of the way winning by 2-1/2L in 1.59.2. That year he was voted HOY.

• In 1997 Skip Away (Hollywood) stalked the early pace, grabbed the lead just before the half and lead the rest of the way winning by 6 L in 1.59. He also won the JCGC by wiring the field in 1.58.4 his race before. That year Skip Away didn’t win HOY but he did in 1998.

• In 2000 Tiznow (CD) lead all the way racing head-to-head throughout and won by a head in 2.00.3. He was voted HOY.

• In 2004 Ghostzapper (Lone Star) wired the field and won by 3L in 1.59. That year he was HOY.

I don’t consider THAS in the same category as this group and though the BCC field might not be the strongest this year, he will still be asked to race tough for 10F. Pace during the race for a horse trying to lead or closely stalk/push the pace will be important, not necessarily the final time. IMO, if he runs in the BCC THAS would do far better if they rated him than try to wire the field. JMO, but I also think that with his style he would have a much better chance in the BC Dirt Mile than the BCC.

re: Female Handicap Division Heating Up

Shutterbug — Thu, 22 Sep 2011 22:21:30 GMT

From Jay Hovdey's article 9/21/11: "I might get trumped by all three of my partners," Hollendorfer said "but I think we'll be content in the Ladies' Classic. If we could win that, we'd be thrilled. We would have accomplished our mission for this year." Hovdey asked: Even if passing the Classic costs Blind Luck a shot at Horse of the Year? "If I did the right thing for my horse, I'd say that nothing would make a difference," Hollendorfer replied.

re: Female Handicap Division Heating Up

JerseyBoy — Thu, 22 Sep 2011 20:58:21 GMT

LAZMANNICK:

When To Honor And Serve has had the lead after 6 furlongs, no horse has ever run him down.

The only occasion on which he was ridden hard when in the lead after 6 furlongs in a distance race, he won by daylight.

The only time I look at in a race is the final time because if they go slow early they go fast late and vice versa.

What matters is how fast the horse covered the entire distance and what the DRF Speed Fig and Track Variant were.

The Equibase figures were provided so no one will think I am dreaming.

On his best day, no horse in America can beat To Honor And Serve at 10 furlongs.

re: Female Handicap Division Heating Up

LAZMANNICK — Thu, 22 Sep 2011 19:44:52 GMT

JerseyBoy

At this point I think that at this point if THAS goes to the BC, it will be in the mile and not the BCC and the Pennsylvania Derby will determine what one he will go in, if he goes at all. I base this on his inability (until his last race) to go on after running fast in the early part of a race.

THAS has a big upside based on his last race. In that race, the slow final 8th of 13.18 might be due to the fact that he had a sizeable lead at the 8th pole of 4 ½ lengths and he increased it to 8 ½ lengths. In watching the replay he was whipped a few times to keep his mind on his business, but from the 16th pole home he just glided and wasn’t under much of a drive. And don’t forget, the final quarter in the Travers was in a slow 26.29 and if you double THAS’s 13.18 to 26.36, it is just slightly slower.

I checked the charts for three other prominent 9F races at Saratoga: The Jim Dandy run in 1.48.78 with the first two quarters in 24.00 and 47.66 with the winner Stay Thirsty not close to the pace; the dead track Whitney run in 1.52.43 with the first two quarters in 24.31, 49.11 and the winner Tizway stalking back in third; and in the Woodward run in 1.49.18, with the first two quarters in 23.93 and 48.09 and the winner HDG back in 4th.

In THAS’s race they ran the race in 1.48.31 (the fastest of the four races) and the opening quarters were in 23.20 and 46.27 (fastest splits of the four races). And THAS was on the outside pressing the pace all the way, never more than half a length away so he had to work hard the first 3/4s of the race.

If he does win the Pen Derby then I think he’ll be a serious player and might just point to the BCC.

re: Female Handicap Division Heating Up

LAZMANNICK — Thu, 22 Sep 2011 19:39:37 GMT

AAF

I'll answer your question: "which of the listed horses were unable to travel to race at America’s most historic venue, Saratoga?"

Asnwer.....Spectacular Bid. OOOPs. Sorry. He wasn't on the list. He was still a champion and HOY though. I guess now we'll have to put an asterisk beside his name.

re: Female Handicap Division Heating Up

tcc — Thu, 22 Sep 2011 19:01:16 GMT

Slew let's try again, 3rd time maybe a charm. Again I will repeat and i dont know how much simpler I can make things but I will try to say it as slow as I can and i'll quote myself, C-A-N Y-O-U P-L-E-A-S-E

E-X-P-L-A-I-N T-H-E C-U-R-R-E-N-T

D--I--R--T, DIRT, D-I-R-T, DIRT,

D-I-R-T,D--I--R--T, DIRT, D-I-R-T, DIRT, D-I-R-T,D--I--R--T, DIRT, D-I-R-T, DIRT, D-I-R-T,D--I--R--T, DIRT, D-I-R-T, DIRT,

D-I-R-T FORM at 10 Furlongs.

Let me try to rephrase, Slew Does So You Think have Dirt Form @ 10f?

Does So You Think Have Dirt Form @ 10f?

Again Over and over Slew, let me ask you what dirt form does SYT have at 10 furlongs.

AfleetAlexForever 11 Sep 2011 11:50 PM

AfleetAlexForever;

Which of the horses listed below had or have won a race at the 10f distance?

Rachel Alexandra

Zenyatta

Havre De Grace

Blind Luck

AAF answers:

TCC which of the listed horses on the list have won a 10 furlong race against open company on dirt?

AfleetAlexForever 22 Sep 2011 1:27 PM

TCC which of the listed horses on the list have tip toed through an entire year without facing a Grade 1 horse?

AfleetAlexForever 22 Sep 2011 1:28 PM

TCC which of the listed horses were unable to travel to race at America’s most historic venue, Saratoga?

AfleetAlexForever 22 Sep 2011 1:30 PM

TCC which of the listed horses never won a race against males on dirt?

AfleetAlexForever 22 Sep 2011 1:30 PM

re: Female Handicap Division Heating Up

AfleetAlexForever — Thu, 22 Sep 2011 17:30:58 GMT

TCC which of the listed horses never won a race against males on dirt?

re: Female Handicap Division Heating Up

AfleetAlexForever — Thu, 22 Sep 2011 17:30:21 GMT

TCC which of the listed horses were unable to travel to race at America’s most historic venue, Saratoga?

re: Female Handicap Division Heating Up

AfleetAlexForever — Thu, 22 Sep 2011 17:28:18 GMT

TCC which of the listed horses on the list have tip toed through an entire year without facing a Grade 1 horse?

re: Female Handicap Division Heating Up

AfleetAlexForever — Thu, 22 Sep 2011 17:27:41 GMT

TCC which of the listed horses on the list have won a 10 furlong race against open company on dirt?

re: Female Handicap Division Heating Up

JerseyBoy — Thu, 22 Sep 2011 11:47:06 GMT

So how good are some of the top East Coast horses in training? This is what the numbers show based on their last race, run at Saratoga, at 9 furlongs.

The figs shown are:

Equibase Rating, weight carried, time of race.

Flat Out 114-126lbs-1:49.18

Havre De Grace 115-123lbs-1:49.18

Tizway 117-118lbs-1:52.43

Stay Thirsty 114-119lbs-1:48.78

THAS* 121-117lbs-1:48.31

*To Honor And Serve

Note, Stay Thirsty and To Honor And Serve will receive an age allowance in a match-up with the others. Havre The Grace will receive a sex allowance.

I have seen comments that Stay Thirsty is a NY horse. I never knew that State borders affected the way a horse performs. I thought only the racing surface mattered.

re: Female Handicap Division Heating Up

Bob from Boston — Thu, 22 Sep 2011 04:30:33 GMT

Is it wrong that Bob from Boston got excited reading this blog? Think baseball, think baseball...

re: Female Handicap Division Heating Up

Alex'sBigFan — Thu, 22 Sep 2011 04:02:29 GMT

Linda in Texas, Jason, Paula,

Yes, agree Jason has a keen eye for horseflesh and horse runners and is a great writer. He has a great approach of realism to things, "it is what it is" so to speak which I can appreciate and admire. I tend to be more of the romanticist. He is right in the sense that she did lose, it is what it is. He is being realistic not sarcastic. As for me I think Zenyatta is the greatest female racehorse of all time. Comparisons to Ruffian are tough, they were different ages and products of different generations, ran in different time periods, and had completely different running styles, one come from behind, one I'm in front and catch me if you dare. The Zenyatta naysayers? Well it's kind of like a few years ago some guy could not understand whatsoever the whole Keith Urban phenomena. I said, "Bud, you gotta take off the horse blinkers, this guy is gorgeous and will become a mega star." Voila, it happened, one of country's best. And so it is with Zenyatta, one of racing's female best. Certain horses and canines and other animals possess inexplicable healing powers, I believe Zenyatta is one of these special animals. What I would give to just spend a few hours at her side while she mows the Lane's End grass over there and just drink in her serenity and greatness. Ironically, my hat designer Polly said the very same thing to me last week and she lives right there by Zenyatta about 20 minutes away. So I think we have been through some kind of a phenomena with her, those that got it experienced something great, those that could not see it remain underprivileged.

Laz,

Great posts. Agree completely about the tiring Churchill cuppy track. By the time they run the BCC it will be against a backdrop of a Churchill sunset and I can't see Thirsty getting over it well. Don't rule Mo out if he makes it, he could reclaim his turf. Great things are coming out of California racing these days and yes a California horse could do it. Don't think Havre is going to hot foot over it either, not as fast as Zenyatta did anyway. If we're gonna see these slow times this could bode very well for Mo, he loves this track and just maybe that high knee action can raise him above the cuppiness. It all remains to be seen................

re: Female Handicap Division Heating Up

Sylvester — Thu, 22 Sep 2011 02:22:50 GMT

@tcc. I'll answer your question. Zenyatta and Blind Luck both won races at 10F. However, with everyone's logic it therefore must be concluded that Zenyatta couldn't beat Blind Luck, Life At Ten or Ask The Moon at 10F on dirt since she was unable to win a 10F race on dirt. Paula for someone who doesn't care you sure do repeatedly come back to Jason's blog and post incessantly.

re: Female Handicap Division Heating Up

GunBow — Thu, 22 Sep 2011 01:24:04 GMT

To answer my own question from above, yes it appears Hollendorfer would run Blind Luck in the Ladies Classic even if Havre went to the Classic. I am a little surprised Hollendorfer has totally ruled out the Classic. Hollendorfer is old school; that's great when it comes to running frequently and shipping, but it also means he's more conservative when it comes to running females against males.

Jess Jackson and Steve Asmuseen were in a similar position last year with Rachel. They knew that Rachel wasn't going to win the Classic off her current form, but they might have felt that running in the Ladies Classic was beneath Rachel given her "rival" was meeting the boys.

Blind Luck is different because while outstanding, she didn't do what the 09' Rachel did, so running in the Ladies Classic will not be seen as "beneath" her. However, it might be hard for some Eclipse voters to choose Blind Luck over Havre if it is the latter in the more ambitious and challenging BC race. In that scenario, Blind Luck would absolutely have to win the Ladies Classic and Havre run worse than 3rd in the Classic. If Havre runs as well as Zenyatta did last year in the Classic, and loses by a nose, she'll win the Older Female Eclipse and probably HoY(unless it is Tizway's or Stay Thirsty's nose).

On the subject of the Z-Team, I understand some people's frustrations. I was a huge Zenyatta fan, and was cheering wildly in person when she won the 09' Classic, Santa Margarita, 10' Vanity, 10' Hirsch, and 10' Lady's Secret.

In partial defense of Moss and Sherriffs, I think their #1 objective in bringing back Zenyatta for 2010 was to beat Rachel in the Apple Blossom. When Rachel was deemed unfit for the race, I think it threw Moss and Sherriffs for a loop. They were anticipating that with a win over Rachel in the Apple Blossom, they could give Zenyatta a mid-season break and then start her back up again in ate summer. And they figured that with a win over Rachel, their critics would finally be silenced. Instead, when Rachel withdrew, the Apple Blossom victory over a moderate field did little to quiet the critics.

This is where my defense of Moss and Sherriffs ends. They just didn't handle the change(lack of a showdown with Rachel in the Apple Blossom) well. Although the Santa Margarita and Apple Blossom had been easy races for Z, Moss and Sherriffs acted like they actually had beaten Rachel in the latter race and basically went into the training/owning equivalent of 4-corners. Whether it was because they were afraid of Zenyatta being injured(certainly understandable) or were trying to protect the streak, they went into a conservative shell, repeating the 09' and 10' campaigns. In many ways, Zenyatta had outgrown races like the Vanity, Hirsch, and Lady's Secret; she was above those races and needed a campaign the equal of arguably the greatest female in history. By running her in the same races, Zenyatta's connections denied her the opportunity of really separating herself from other great females like Personal Ensign. In my opinion, Zenyatta had already proven herself the equal of Personal Ensign, and 2011 was the time to see where she fit with the likes of Cigar, Skip Away, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Easy Goer and the other great males of recent times and maybe even the likes of The Bid, Affirmed, Slew, Forego, and Secretariat.

Again, I don't blame the connections for starting out with the Santa Margarita and Apple Blossom because the Apple Blossom was scheduled to be a defining race. However, when the showdown fell threw, the campaign should have looked something like this: Foster or Hollywood Gold Cup, Personal Ensign, Goodwood, BC Classic. Half her races against males, at least half her races outside Cali, at least half her races on dirt.

re: Female Handicap Division Heating Up

Paula Higgins — Thu, 22 Sep 2011 00:23:48 GMT

Jason, thanks for the update on Blind Luck's next race and their plans to run her in the BCLC. I am disappointed she isn't going into the Classic but Hollendorfer knows his horse better than anyone, so I won't second guess him. I think even if she wins the Lady's Secret and the BCLC, it will be tough to win HOTY. I admire very much the way they have campaigned her but I think HOTY will probably go to the BCC winner this year.

Linda in Texas and Lazmannick, great posts about Zenyatta. Talking about her, to the naysayers, is an exercise in futility. They will never get it because they don't want to. I just don't care anymore because her greatness is apparent to most of western (and eastern civilization) and the few holdouts simply don't make a difference to her legacy.

re: Female Handicap Division Heating Up

tcc — Wed, 21 Sep 2011 20:31:50 GMT

Householder;

Seems like Mike Repole's point is that he want's both his horses running in the Breeder's Cup Classic, not one of them in the BCC, and the other one in the Bredder's Cup Dirt Mile. The BCC seems to be Mike Repole's race preference.

AfleetAlexForever;, Sylvester;

Which of the horses listed below had or have won a race at the 10f distance?

Rachel Alexandra

Zenyatta

Havre De Grace

Blind Luck

re: Female Handicap Division Heating Up

It aint easy being good! — Wed, 21 Sep 2011 20:25:45 GMT

Royal Delta at classic distances would destroy both HDG and blind luck! Does anyone know what the connections are going to do with brillant speed yet? He is a monster on turf and I dont see him losing ever again. Brilliant speed will be this years paddy o prado you can bank on that! BS is a beast on TURF!!! Someone tell me something so I can go house him on breeders cup day...thank you!

re: Female Handicap Division Heating Up

Linda in Texas — Wed, 21 Sep 2011 19:23:49 GMT

I don't agree with AfleetAlexForever. Just because i do agree with some of Gunbow's posts does not mean that i will automatically agree with AAF when he defends Gunbow on subjects i may have a different opinion on.

And i will defend Zenyatta, AAF, them is fightn' words. And yes Jason, i can hear you saying, 'she lost, get over it.' I never was

a poor sport about it that i can remember. But her name will be brought up for a long time. And you simply cannot file her wins away to be forgotten. And so will Blame's The BC Winner of 2010!

But she did bring the crowds out and she certainly helped the t.v. ratings and brought some needed attention to horse racing.

Thanks Jason. You are a good sport and i appreciate your expertise and your great articles. For a youngster you are very savvy and quick thinking. And those are all compliments.