Handicapping the Race for Horse of the Year

re: Handicapping the Race for Horse of the Year

WWSTP — Wed, 26 Oct 2011 16:44:28 GMT

Any way you look at it Rachel Alexandra had the pivitol 3 year old filly year. There is NOTHING to contradict that. She left her guts and heart on the track that year, and she was phenomenol!! It sickens me to hear her diminished for what no other filly has done before. You don't have to hate Rachel to love Zenyatta...geez! They are both part of this expansion that is happening for fillies and mares...they both left a huge and amazing footprint.

re: Handicapping the Race for Horse of the Year

WWSTP — Wed, 26 Oct 2011 16:40:44 GMT

I can't buy into the idea that Zenyatta's HOY was a heart vote. All one has to do is watch the BCC to know who was, by far, the best horse in that field...beaten by a short head yes, but still by far the best. With her record to back her up, her HOY award was a balance between head and heart. When you KNOW who the best horse is, I am grateful a balanced head/heart vote can make the difference. Pure raw statistics, when your gut screams the complete opposite, makes it all so very boring...sterile. If only trainers and jockeys and owners were managed with the raw rules, and the awards were left to the balance of head and heart....how wonderful would that be!!

re: Handicapping the Race for Horse of the Year

furlongs — Sat, 22 Oct 2011 04:13:41 GMT

KYVET-

If you really look at beyers that hard that tells me everything I need to know about you and your handicaping! Just call you DRAYNAY JR. and wipe all that chalk off yourself!!! WOW beyers lol talk about a professional, lol...

re: Handicapping the Race for Horse of the Year

chucky — Fri, 21 Oct 2011 17:47:59 GMT

Trackjack, you are confused. Zenyatta beat the horses that Rachel beat at a shorter distance. Rachel would have lost if she ran against those horses at 10 furlongs...Next none of the handicap horse overrated Rachel beat in the Grade 2, 9 furlong Woodward ran in the 10 furlong 2009 Classic. There is the difference between Zenyatta and overrated Rachel. You see Rachel is grade 1 material but only up to 9 furlongs.

Now you saying Zen won on her hometrack...hell yes...but Blame barely held off Zenyatta ON HIS HOMETRACK....

Again if the same perfect storm comes around, there could be another LUCKY RACHEL...Rachel is no more than a product of great marketing...but hey the industry needed that publicity...

Let's just not get carried away with the filly for the ages nonsense...she cannot run 10 furlongs...that is why she avoided the classic.

re: Handicapping the Race for Horse of the Year

chucky — Fri, 21 Oct 2011 17:42:27 GMT

Sorry KY VET, but MO will be SLOW in the last furlong...he is a noisy runner and basically a miler.

re: Handicapping the Race for Horse of the Year

trackjack — Fri, 21 Oct 2011 16:41:26 GMT

chucky,

If RA was lucky, then according to your logic, Zenyatta was lucky to win the 2009 BC Classic. She beat those 3 yo. colts and handicap division horses who showed up to run against her. You could even say she was lucky because the race was in her backyard on synth and the future HOTY, had done enough and did not need to meet her. How lucky could Zenyatta get? You could say that, but I won't

Zenyatta was managed well, stayed in CA on synthetics with the purpose of winning the 2009 BC Classic in her back yard. This great 5 yo. mare was successful and her win in the Classic was spectacular.

The 3 yo. filly was managed well, took on all comers at 7 different dirt tracks on fast and sloppy conditions, went unbeaten and was voted HOTY. You call her lucky, I call her great. Neither the mare or the filly could pick and choose who they ran against. They both went out and defeated all comers. The filly's record overall was better than the mare's.

You are correct that the odds of another filly doing what Rachel did is slim and none, not because she was lucky, but because she was one of the great ones. I'll agree to disagree.

Who do like in the new BC Juvenile Sprint?

re: Handicapping the Race for Horse of the Year

KY VET — Fri, 21 Oct 2011 00:24:18 GMT

I will say it one more time.....You people keep saying This and that about all of these big races, or the girl beat the boys..........PEOPLE!!! Look in the section that explains the beyer system! 100=alw 115 beyer the top horses......THE LAST FEW YEARS, THE OLDER CROP WAS SO WEAK!!!! This is why the fillies beat them.115 par AVERAGE!!!!!!!!Know the reasons people.....

re: Handicapping the Race for Horse of the Year

KY VET — Fri, 21 Oct 2011 00:19:44 GMT

Chucky! UNCLE MO is great BECAUSE of his stride..he is a small horse but has a humongous stride....FYI,The longer the stride,slower turnover compared to short stride...Count Mos strides from a point in a race!(top of turn or quater pole)..Youll find out why mo is a freak...UNREAL! look at his cup race last year.(one of the fastest beyers ever for 2yr old)...He's not rank, pletcher talks about his long rythmic stride in video. You SIR don't really KNOW what youre talking about!

re: Handicapping the Race for Horse of the Year

chucky — Thu, 20 Oct 2011 21:10:52 GMT

KY VET, uncle mo has a rythmic strides? HAHAHAHAHAHA, he has more noise in his stride and he lifts his knees way high. He uses way too much energy with that action and he be lucky to finish last. lol

re: Handicapping the Race for Horse of the Year

chucky — Thu, 20 Oct 2011 21:06:24 GMT

Trackjack,

The odds of another 3 year old filly doing what Rachel did is slim and none. Not because she is great but because she got lucky.

She came around when the top 3 year old colts were injured and the handicap division was led by Macho Again.

Then of course, the 10 furlong classic was on synth which gave JJ an excuse to duck it and plenty of you swallowed that BS.

re: Handicapping the Race for Horse of the Year

furlongs — Thu, 20 Oct 2011 20:09:48 GMT

Havre de Grace's HOY to lose as far as I can see! She has been awesome this season!

re: Handicapping the Race for Horse of the Year

Householder — Thu, 20 Oct 2011 16:38:28 GMT

trackjack. My point exactly. There were no Holy Bull's in the Woodward.

re: Handicapping the Race for Horse of the Year

trackjack — Thu, 20 Oct 2011 14:46:41 GMT

Householder,

Interesting comments on past Woodwards. Holy Bull, one of my all-time favorites was not a 3 yo. filly. Alysheba and Easy Goer, great horses from the past, neither of which was a 3 yo. filly. Did Holy Bull, Alysheba or Easy Goer show up to run against the 3yo. filly in the 2009 Woodward?

Comparing great horses from different years is part and parcel of racing fans speculation because we all are looking for the best and trying to convince one another that horse A is better than horse B. Trying to compare horses from different years running in the same race is pure speculation. It's fun, it's great fodder for debate and discussion. It has absolutely NO BEARING on RA's 2009 Woodward or her overall 2009 record as HOTY.

Get over it. Let me know when another 3 yo. filly has that kind of record.

re: Handicapping the Race for Horse of the Year

KY VET — Thu, 20 Oct 2011 02:40:51 GMT

a quarter mile takes 24 seconds.....a 118 beyer with a 27 last quarter is still a good beyer. you people are off your rocker! there is hardly any 1 1/4 races...because a horse wins a race at that distance means he loves it? weird! you people say that last year, and he wins drawing out! 1/1/16th...is he rank? does he have fast stride? no! his stride is long for any horse and hes not even big...long and rythmic. that says long distance...he loses this race and you will say its the distance that beat him.................rookiees!

re: Handicapping the Race for Horse of the Year

Pedigree Ann — Wed, 19 Oct 2011 22:02:29 GMT

The Holy BS (Beyer Speed, or whatever you want) Figures are not the be-all-and-end-all of racing. I don't use them and I refuse to consider them as a measure of class.

Uncle Mo has shown that when he gets the front end to himself to set a comfortable pace, he can sprint home in a fast time in a 1-turn mile, twice now. What does this say about his ability to compete in a 2-turn 10f race? Especially one with a full field and a contested pace? Absolutely nothing. Has any horse who has not yet won a race of least 9f ever won the BC Classic? I think not.

Uncle Mo may well stretch to 10f in the right circumstances, but he's not getting them this fall.

re: Handicapping the Race for Horse of the Year

It aint easy being good! — Wed, 19 Oct 2011 21:22:42 GMT

Furlongs great post. I am thinking that KY Vet is draynays younger brother. You keep saying how great 118 beyer was. 133 in a mile is very impressive but mo doesnt have the tools for 1 1/4th mile nor does he have the trainer and foundation to win at that distance. Remember speed kills at a mile stamina and power and DNA makes a champion with that being sad if it Rains then MO to the windows!!!

re: Handicapping the Race for Horse of the Year

Householder — Wed, 19 Oct 2011 18:57:51 GMT

This was hardly the "Forego" Woodward of the past. Holly Bull won the Woodward at 3 a second and a half faster than RA.

Get over it! Alysheba ran a faster 1 1/4 than Easy Goer in the Woodward.

re: Handicapping the Race for Horse of the Year

KY VET — Wed, 19 Oct 2011 18:03:21 GMT

Furlongs. I know uncle mo is the best horse. Look, he might be great enough to win. But people dont really know how incredible that race was. They just say it was a mile, or he got easy lead...133 4/5? what does it take for people to be impressed? Jackson bend was so sharp, and fired his lungs out. he ran way better beyer than anyone knows....I love mo, hope he wins....but i am a pro for a reason. I know what im doing....Waiting for fastball right down the middle of the plate.

re: Handicapping the Race for Horse of the Year

furlongs — Wed, 19 Oct 2011 16:52:12 GMT

KY Vet-

Your a professional horseplayer and your stating that you can't bet a horse that will be low odds off his 118 beyer. And you list 2 horses that are coming into the race "perfect". And I thought DRAYNAY made no sense on these blogs! WOW your much of a PROFESSIONAL Horseplayer if you ask me with that kind of insight to a race. I mean seems to me this would be the PERFECT place as a Professional to make a stand against Uncle Mo based on what you said and play the race. Unless you get cold feet at the windows unless your betting the blink like your buddy Draynay!!

re: Handicapping the Race for Horse of the Year

KY VET — Wed, 19 Oct 2011 01:21:31 GMT

Mo will run in the classic....118 beyer might be a small clue...And i am a professional horseplayer...im not betting the race....mo is best horse but wont bet horse off a 118 beyer..added to that, the filly and flat out are coming into the race perfect....ill PASS!

re: Handicapping the Race for Horse of the Year

It aint easy being good! — Wed, 19 Oct 2011 00:33:48 GMT

KT VET when Mo gets pointed to the dirt mile then who do you like for the classic? I feel like you and draynay will be bummed when your beast wont even be in the classic haha! Rumor has it mo is going to run in the mile where he belongs. Stay Thirsty is built for 1 1/4th and remember his daddy was close in winning this race 5 years ago!

re: Handicapping the Race for Horse of the Year

KY VET — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 23:42:30 GMT

jASON ...YOU KNOW MORE THAN 90 PERCENT OF THE PEOPLE ON HERE....I HAVE NO PROBLEM WITH YOUR VIEWS..I DONT DISSAGREE WITH 90 PERCENT OF WHAT YOU SAY....

re: Handicapping the Race for Horse of the Year

Guiness — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 23:00:21 GMT

What's in a name?

Well, the name Zenyatta brought in the FAME because she was so GAME for the sport of horse racing.

Still to this day as we have to say, she still brings the SAME FAME to the GAME and its certainly not a SHAME because it just proves just how great she was for and still is for horse racing.

re: Handicapping the Race for Horse of the Year

Carlos in Cali — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 21:51:57 GMT

Billy, to each his own.For the last 25 yr's all the top routing horses have aimed for the BC Classic,the Woodward is a mere 'prep' nowadays.There is a reason(s)RA never showed-up for the main event.

re: Handicapping the Race for Horse of the Year

It aint easy being good! — Tue, 18 Oct 2011 21:28:13 GMT

I must have missed that week since I stopped taking your advice. Hopefully you can get back on track for the breeders cup since we all know you nailed the classic. Jason not feeling ROI this year huh. Come on buddy he can at least get some place/show money! Watch the PA derby again and watch his stretch run and tell me that wasnt impressive.