A Pre Pre-Entries Look at Breeders' Cup Odds

re: A Pre Pre-Entries Look at Breeders' Cup Odds

furlongs — Tue, 25 Oct 2011 15:41:02 GMT

I will have no problem reporting back after the Breeders Cup. We are all wrong in this game alot more then we want to be so why would I shy away from coming back to these blogs. And we all have the right to look back at what Uncle Mo beat that is why they have a racing form. He has beat nothing and never won a race beyond 8.5 furlongs and that was a year ago. His odds will be way to low to justify playing him in the Classic based on what he has done and who he has beaten. That is why the call it gambling isnt it. You bet Uncle Mo all you want and TRUST ME I will be here the day after BC and I will not be the one saying "I told you so" just not my style... I say bet more it only maks the odds better on everyother hors in the race!! Good luck.

re: A Pre Pre-Entries Look at Breeders' Cup Odds

Weekend — Tue, 25 Oct 2011 14:40:10 GMT

There is one horse that is starting to look more and more enticing to me, but I doubt I will get the odds that I want. This colt would be Strong Suit, who is coming into his own right now. I think he will be the biggest competition to Goldi in the Mile. His connections are very high on him right now. Another interesting prospect is Misty for Me in the F&M turf. Coming off a lackluster third at Leopardtown, she previously beat Midday by 6 legnths, and also beat Together, who just won a Grade 1 at Keeneland 2 weeks ago. Getting Lasix is not going to hurt them either.

Now, looking at the Juvenile, this is going to be interesting. On one hand, we have Union Rags, who is looking like Uncle Mo last year coming into the Juvenile. On the other, we have Creative Cause and Drill coming from Cali to give a serious challenge. Over this weekend at Keeneland, I was priveleged enough to meet some folks with an interest in Hansen, and although he has not run on dirt, they are very high on this 2yo. I see no clear cut favorite and think odds will be 4-1 or higher on the favorite.

BTW, Keeneland was gorgeous on Saturday. Could not of asked for better weather. I was in the paddock for the 5th race, and Larry Jones had a horse running. I talked to him for a quick second about AAF, and Jones acknowledged he knew AAF and that he would be in the winner's circle if the mare wins the BCC. NAHHH, just kidding. I did talk to him though and wished him luck in the BCC. One thing about keeneland, as I have said before, is follow the smart money. Had a $43 winner, a Henny Hughes that was 20-1 m/l, went out 8-1 right after the odds came out, and went off at almost 21-1. He won by 3. Wish I would of know that prior to the p3 that I bet.

Anyway, I will be at the track in the mornings next week watching works, so I will try to give any insight in how the horses look. Havre is working on Monday. Plum Pretty looks tough in the L/C. Tapizar is looking good, and EUROEARS ran a 56 3/5 yesterday. WOW. On twitter, someone said that Baffert threw the stopwatch down after the work b/c it was SO HOT! HA. Good luck! Have a nice week

re: A Pre Pre-Entries Look at Breeders' Cup Odds

dryice55 — Tue, 25 Oct 2011 03:32:58 GMT

You guys, the safe play would probably be to run Mo in the mile, but the classic is the best choice. It sounds nice to go safe this year and than shoot for the classic at 4, who knows what's going to happen at 4? He might not run, even if he does what if he gets hurt and doesn't make it to the Breeder's Cup next year ( god forbid)? I agree the he has alot to overcome coming off a mile prep. However, how many horses have run 108 Beyers as a two year old?? How many horses have come back from from Cholangiohepatitis the way he has?? This could be one of most talented colt we have seen in a long time!! If he wins the dirt mile, he'll go down as a nice miler and probably win the 3 year old colt eclipse. He deserves more than that, he's 100% right now, he has the chance to become one of the GREATS in the classic, he deserves that chance THIS YEAR, who knows what next year is going to bring. He's a risky bet, sure there are questions, but I'm elated that this colt is going to get his chance to prove him self!! Right now he's regarded as a really nice colt, on November 5th he could become a legend!!!

re: A Pre Pre-Entries Look at Breeders' Cup Odds

Ranagulzion — Tue, 25 Oct 2011 03:06:39 GMT

furlongs,

When a horse runs in the richest and most prestigeous events for his age group and wins impressively, the argument that "he beat absolutely nothing" is redundant because in this case, the connections of Uncle Mo have no control over the quality of his rivals that enter the races and its not like they were ducking anybody. Besides, you are berating the competition in last year's Breeder's Cup Juvenile on hindsight. At the time the Breeder's Cup Juvenile looked like a pretty formidable line up. Its just that several of the potentially very good colts subsequently suffered injuries and fail to make the Triple Crown challenge, therefore your argument is fallacious.

Your point about the JCGC is also unreasonable. The timing wasn't right for a horse like Mo, coming off the 7 Furlongs King's Bishop. The Kelso was a very good decision by the connections and the Breeder's Cup Classic timing is just about right for him to tackle Grade 1 competition at 10 Furlongs IMO. We'll see how it goes. I hope that you wont be too embarrased to report back here after the Breeder's Cup.

re: A Pre Pre-Entries Look at Breeders' Cup Odds

furlongs — Mon, 24 Oct 2011 18:40:07 GMT

RANAGULION-

And what I am saying is he has beat ABSOLUTLY NOTHING his entire career. I do not care what beyers he posts. Look at the horses he has beat, Jackson Bend! That horse will not win the BC Dirt Mile. I think Mo is a talented horse always have, but I also think he has been over-rated his entire 3 year old career. He was without a doubt the best 2 year old out there but his 3 year old season has been a HUGE disappointment and no one should be able to argue with that. If Pletcher thought the horse could really win the Classic why wasnt he in the JCGC at a distance of ground, the correct way to prep for the Classic?? I will tell you why. They needed a Graded win as a 3 year old before he retires to stud and that Mile race is perfect for a horse like him. The truth is the horse was pointed for the Dirt Mile as soon as he came back and ran huge off the layoff from the farm. The ONLY reason he is running in the Classic is because of the number he threw up in the Kelso, his time as well as his beyer. Simple as that. Rapole said it best after the Kelso. He would hate to win the Dirt Mile with Mo and run 3rd in the Classic with Stay Thirsty when he can take a shot with Mo in the Classic as well, and win the race everyone wants to. Now as time has gone by they have tricked themselfs into thinking they can win the race because they are 100% commited to it. But first actions mean everything and when a race like this comes around (Classic) everything must go perfect to win it. Ask Al Stall last year he said it best. That to win a race like this you have to have no bumps in the road all season. Well Mo has had a bunch of bumps from the time he finished the BC Juv. so I will pass on Mo at 1 1/4 off the seasoning and races he has run to get him in the gate in the Classic... I could be wrong and if I am I have no problems saying so. But to the subject at hand. For you to compare Mo that has never won a race beyond 8.5 furlongs to the horses you listed is crazy. Now I agree he does have more ability then some you listed but until he wins the Classic or a Grade 1 race at 1 1/4 he will never compare to the likes of Curlin, AP Indy or Sunday Silence. That is not just a fans opinion but that is a simple fact.

re: A Pre Pre-Entries Look at Breeders' Cup Odds

Ranagulzion — Mon, 24 Oct 2011 15:59:48 GMT

furlongs,

All I'm saying is that Uncle Mo has shown me that he's of the same calibre as all the other 3YOs that have won the Breeder's Cup Classic in the past. He's not yet had the opportunity in the amount of races he's competed in to accomplish what Curlin, AP Indy or Sunday Silence has accomplished. Remenber he's only lost two out of seven starts and had good excuses in both losses, besides all his wins (except for the Timely Writer) have been super impressive. Give the colt a chance and restrain your penchant for talking down a star performer.

Regarding Union Rags, I would say to you and all other doubters that you've only seen the tip of the iceberg with respect to the talent of this colt. He's bred to really blossom in time for the Kentucky Derby and other Triple Crown races next year, being from the Northern Dancer line, inbred top and bottom to the great class and stamina-producing influence Hyperion(track-record setting Epsom Derby winner ans son of English triple crown winner Gainsborough). An interesting thing about Union Rags is that was a very lazy, sleepy yearling, a distinct trait of Hyperion. Further more, Union Rags has Nijinsky, the last English Triple Crown winner and sire of Kentucky Derby winner Ferdinand, as the broodmare sire of his second dam Tersicorist(a Group 2 winning stayer). If your a true racing fan and connoisseur of the sport you would only wish for this colt to stay healthy and sound in order to have a great Triple crown treat next year. I know its early days yet but this colt has all the attributes (tactical speed, push-button gears,versatility, class and stamina laiden classic pedigree) to be a super star on both Turf and Dirt.

Alpha is also a very promising colt but being from the AP Indy/Bernardini line he may not be ready in terms of his overall development (including mental rediness) for the rigours of the Triple Crown, even though he is showing vast potential at this stage. I've seen it so often and said it so many times that many people may think that I'm don't like horses produced from AP Indy or Bernardini(nothing could be further from the truth). I'm just realistic and honest about my observations and infrences. Alpha will be very good around mid-summer, in time for the Travers but chances are he will not be a strong Derby contender. I fear the connections may force the issue with these type of colts and get them injured. Anyway just one fan's opinion.

re: A Pre Pre-Entries Look at Breeders' Cup Odds

furlongs — Mon, 24 Oct 2011 11:50:06 GMT

Union Rags wins one of the WORSE Juv. races in BC history! But I will take Alpha any day and twice on Sunday come next season as a 3 year old compared to these... WHERE IS THE FAST 2 year olds???

re: A Pre Pre-Entries Look at Breeders' Cup Odds

furlongs — Mon, 24 Oct 2011 02:10:20 GMT

Ok here is the deal Uncle Mo is a very talented horse but in no way is he Curlin, AP Indy, or Sunday Silence!! WOW that is all I can say... he is more talented then the others you listed.

re: A Pre Pre-Entries Look at Breeders' Cup Odds

Ranagulzion — Sun, 23 Oct 2011 03:23:30 GMT

Pedigree Ann,

Uncle Mo was an exceptional 2YO talent not merely because of early or comparitive maturity: the manner of his victories,the final times and his Beyer speed figures should convince you. He could very well turn out to be of similar calibre to Dr Fager or Precisionist and deserves a mulligan for his early season run, bearing in mind that his 3YO campaign was hampered by illness. I have no doubt whatsoever of Uncle Mo's potential. What he did in the Kelso shouldn't be viewed as a muddy track abberation given the obvious class that this colt had displayed in his Juvenile campaign as well as his brilliant run in the King's Bishop (no marks lost in defeat off the layoff). It's sad that once again the Breeding concerns will likely rob us of seeing what he's really capable of next year since in all probability he'll be retired after the Breeder's Cup but I would be thrilled to see him land the Breeder's Cup Clssic although at this point I think that Tizway stands in his way (I could change my mind by race day). Uncle Mo to me, certainly has shown that he's of the calibre of any of the 3YO winners of the Breeder's Cup Classic including Raven's Pass,Curlin,Tiznow,Concern,AP Indy,Unbridled,Sunday Silence and Proud Truth. Having been in the game for a comparible time as you I can tell a class act when I see one, usually a while before most other observers acknowledges it. UNCLE MO IS A CLASS ACT. I really wish for him to stay sound and hang around for one more season to convince all the doubters.

re: A Pre Pre-Entries Look at Breeders' Cup Odds

Mike Relva — Sun, 23 Oct 2011 01:18:39 GMT

DRAYNAY

Yeah, of course! Your QR really blew past the Mare in last yrs Classic, didn't he?

re: A Pre Pre-Entries Look at Breeders' Cup Odds

chucky — Sun, 23 Oct 2011 00:54:31 GMT

Drayno still hyping these milers eh?

Uncle Slo Mo will show how you do it after 8.5 furlongs, he would do a Quality Road in the classic or a Rachel in the Personal Ensign.....both couldn't even bend their knees...

ahhhhh the hyping of inferior horses.

re: A Pre Pre-Entries Look at Breeders' Cup Odds

Stevebiscuit — Sat, 22 Oct 2011 22:52:14 GMT

Jason, wake me you pick a winner. It feels like last November since that happened!

re: A Pre Pre-Entries Look at Breeders' Cup Odds

Mike Relva — Sat, 22 Oct 2011 21:55:12 GMT

STEVE BISCUIT

That's exactly what will happen.

re: A Pre Pre-Entries Look at Breeders' Cup Odds

Betsy — Sat, 22 Oct 2011 20:40:11 GMT

So Shackleford makes the list, but not Wilburn, the horse who beat him so handily?

Beware Alpha.......he'll be an overlay

re: A Pre Pre-Entries Look at Breeders' Cup Odds

Criminal Type — Sat, 22 Oct 2011 20:19:26 GMT

So much for credability, Dray, That European Turf horse that can't run on dirt is from AUSTRALIA.

re: A Pre Pre-Entries Look at Breeders' Cup Odds

Jason Shandler — Sat, 22 Oct 2011 18:16:10 GMT

Steve: zzzzzz....wake us up when you're done.

re: A Pre Pre-Entries Look at Breeders' Cup Odds

Stevebiscuit — Sat, 22 Oct 2011 18:02:16 GMT

Last time I checked you can still collect when you have your horse to hit the board. There's no payout for dead last. You spend so much time trashing Zenyatta(who finished 30 lengths ahead of your pick, the one you said was the next Ghostzapper) you seem to forget she beat the best you East Coasters had to offer save for one lucky horse. If she was such a terrible racehorse, why bother reminding everyone unless you're simply trying to convince yourself? To think you almost got beat by a horse who couldn't run on dirt and only against allowance horses, must be pretty embarrassing! Take it from Allen Jerkens, "they will look at the Classic the same way they look at Man o’War getting beat”, or John Nerud who said Zenyatta is "equal or better than any mare I've ever seen". And if you choose to ignore the opinions of two of the greatest trainers ever the how about your pal Mike Repole who said "If I had owned Blame, I probably would have been the only owner in America who would have told you Zenyatta deserved to be Horse of the Year". Time to face facts Draynay, you'll always be swimming against the current on this one. Belittling Zenyatta isn't only unfounded, it's also an attack on a horse that helped racing return briefly to the days of Secretariat or The Bid, when racehorses could still gain national attention. All she ever did throughout her magnificent career was gain attention for a sport that desperately needed a shot in the arm. If that's not enough for you to show just a little appreciation for what she did then you must not be a true fan of horse racing.

re: A Pre Pre-Entries Look at Breeders' Cup Odds

Draynay — Sat, 22 Oct 2011 14:58:53 GMT

Last time I checked a win ticket for Quality Road at the Classic is worth the same as a win ticket on the State Restricted Poly Champion.

re: A Pre Pre-Entries Look at Breeders' Cup Odds

Pedigree Ann — Sat, 22 Oct 2011 14:41:29 GMT

Talent alone can win races up to a mile, sometimes even 9f. But history has shown it takes talent AND fitness to win dirt classic-distance races. (Not to mention a genetic predilection for longer distance races.) Superior talent can carry a horse a furlong or so past his optimum distance, eg. Dr. Fager. Is Uncle Mo a Dr. Fager? Is he even a Precisionist? (The latter won G1s at 10f and 6f=BC Sprint in the same year, for you youngsters.) Nothing he has done so far makes me think he is. Fast wet-track Belmont times have fooled people for the all the 40 years I've been following this sport.

Just remember, what a horse does at 2 can be an illusion if the horse has an advantage of early maturity over his opponents. As his contemporaries catch up at 3, he can find himself unable to handle them at the same distances at which he beat them at 2. Kafwain is a prime example of this and one could add War Pass to the list.

re: A Pre Pre-Entries Look at Breeders' Cup Odds

Stevebiscuit — Sat, 22 Oct 2011 03:59:32 GMT

Mike Relva, after Uncle Mo finishes up the track Draynay will pretend like he was on the winner's bandwagon all along. I can't wait to hear his excuses for the vastly overrated miler Uncle Mo. He might have a shot against Quality Road, who last time I heard has yet to cross the finish line.

re: A Pre Pre-Entries Look at Breeders' Cup Odds

Stevebiscuit — Sat, 22 Oct 2011 03:52:36 GMT

Draynay, So You Think will finish ahead of Uncle Mo. So will Havre De Grace, Tizway, To Honor and Serve, and Ruler On Ice.

re: A Pre Pre-Entries Look at Breeders' Cup Odds

Mike Relva — Fri, 21 Oct 2011 21:27:26 GMT

DRAYNAY

What will happen is Mo's losing the Classic and you will react the obvious..... making excuses or laying low for a couple weeks till you think we forget.

re: A Pre Pre-Entries Look at Breeders' Cup Odds

Ranagulzion — Fri, 21 Oct 2011 21:04:37 GMT

Carlos,

Regarding your handicapping philosophy I quote you " ...before the advent of Beyers' figs.Pace,Class & likely trips is all I've ever gone by,.. Old School Style"

From my observation you should've added " and Seattle Slew/AP Indy sire pedigree" to your formula (LOL). Its nothing to be bashful about, except that it hasn't been serving you very well all year. Good luck my friend.

Golden Broom,

I assure you that Tizway has one of the smartest, most tactical riders around today in Rajiv Maragh: he will not fail for assistance from the saddle. Good luck.

re: A Pre Pre-Entries Look at Breeders' Cup Odds

Weekend — Fri, 21 Oct 2011 20:13:50 GMT

Dray, you making it up to Churchill for the BC?

re: A Pre Pre-Entries Look at Breeders' Cup Odds

Draynay — Fri, 21 Oct 2011 19:32:25 GMT

Stevebiscuit do me a favor and tell me who your pick will be for the Classic and then after the race tell me how many lengths he or she finished behind Mo. Thanks in advance.