Mott Holding a Strong Breeders' Cup Hand

re: Mott Holding a Strong Breeders' Cup Hand

Jason Shandler — Tue, 01 Nov 2011 19:23:22 GMT

Just capped the Turf Sprint and I really like Country Day at a price. Regally Ready and Havelock will be tough, but no value there.

re: Mott Holding a Strong Breeders' Cup Hand

Householder — Mon, 31 Oct 2011 23:50:51 GMT

GunBow. I thought Unzip Me looked great winning the Cal Cup Distaff. No female is better at turf sprints then this one.

re: Mott Holding a Strong Breeders' Cup Hand

Criminal Type — Thu, 27 Oct 2011 18:32:42 GMT

Easy, The Hype being generated over some of these horses IS criminal. lol

re: Mott Holding a Strong Breeders' Cup Hand

KY VET — Thu, 27 Oct 2011 02:38:52 GMT

ran.....the sprint usually has tons of speed.....this years is really the least fast horses ever.....the mile on the other hand has tons of pace horses!!!

re: Mott Holding a Strong Breeders' Cup Hand

It aint easy being good! — Wed, 26 Oct 2011 19:42:05 GMT

Criminal Hype I am on the Union bandwagon for sure! Also householder Dross ran a 104 beyer last out and wont get winded at all...Winstar rules and will again in the classic!

re: Mott Holding a Strong Breeders' Cup Hand

Weekend — Wed, 26 Oct 2011 18:54:28 GMT

Secret Circle is Bafferts lock in the BC Juv Sprint. back to back 97 beyers

re: Mott Holding a Strong Breeders' Cup Hand

Householder — Wed, 26 Oct 2011 18:12:19 GMT

Baffert may be high on Drill but Creative Cause moved way up on the stretch out and rider change. This one should be undefeated if you toss the Del Mar rodeo.

re: Mott Holding a Strong Breeders' Cup Hand

Householder — Wed, 26 Oct 2011 18:03:25 GMT

Game on Dude's fractions are fine at 1 1/4. In fact his 2 highest Beyer's of the year are at this distance.

The Hollywood Gold Cup *synthetic* was 136 1/5 finishing up in 201 2/5 with a 106 Beyer loss and the Santa Anita Handicap he ran 134 4/5 finishing up in 159 2/5 with a 100 Beyer win.

He has been 1-2 the last 5 races at the 3/4ers mark over different surfaces.

The only horse that looks remotely similar on paper is Harve. Her 1 1/4 Delaware she ran a 106 Beyer at 201 1/5 in a loss.

Compare this with Flat Out, Stay Thirsty, or Drosselmeyer (does he even have a 90 Beyer?) On paper they are just too slow and Harve easily beat Flat Out going 1/8th shorter. He'll be force to change tatics with her entered.

I'm not saying G.O.D. wins but if he breaks and takes he gives Mo some fits.

Baffert has made it no mystery what he will be doing. Watch the fast 5 furlong bullet works he puts into this one once he hits Churchill.

re: Mott Holding a Strong Breeders' Cup Hand

Ranagulzion — Wed, 26 Oct 2011 17:46:29 GMT

KY VET,

Royal Currier and Euro Ears will ensure a sub-22 seconds opening quarter in the Sprint ...thought you were able to figure that out genius.

re: Mott Holding a Strong Breeders' Cup Hand

Criminal Type — Wed, 26 Oct 2011 17:17:20 GMT

It aint easy, If it rain's Breeders Cup Saturday there is no doubt in my mind that Union Rag's will romp too. I think he will romp wet or dry but He really loved the slop at Saratoga. Ranagulzion and I will be counting our cash. When everyone gets on his bandwagon, remember We were here first.

re: Mott Holding a Strong Breeders' Cup Hand

Footlick — Wed, 26 Oct 2011 15:28:05 GMT

And just also a reminder, you cannot responsibly compare fractions and times of a one-turn race and a two-turn race. They are two totally different animals.

re: Mott Holding a Strong Breeders' Cup Hand

Smoking Baby — Wed, 26 Oct 2011 14:46:18 GMT

It Ain't Easy Being Good. Be careful my friend. Agree with him, don't agree with him, but something tells me that Jason cashes his share of tickets. Just saying.

re: Mott Holding a Strong Breeders' Cup Hand

FATPIANO — Wed, 26 Oct 2011 13:52:54 GMT

Royal Delta will destroy Plum Pretty, To Honor and Serve will surprise many and will win The Classic. Drosslemyer might plug along for 3rd or 4th, CC could pull off the upset of Goldi, she is not as good as last year, Birdrun should win the Marathon, Overall Mott is going to have a very BIG day.......

re: Mott Holding a Strong Breeders' Cup Hand

Weekend — Wed, 26 Oct 2011 13:12:09 GMT

Coldfacts, please stop comparing times from different tracks. Did THS and Mo run on the same track for the times you are comparing? NO, one ran at Parx, the other at Belmont Park. If you want to use this logic to handicap, so be it, but you know as well as the next that times can be misleading. If you were comparing times, Mo was ahead 4 legnths at the mile mark anyway. And like DR D stated, he was not fully extended.

Now, onto the weather. Accuweather is calling for 54 and partly cloudy on Friday, and 51 and sunny on Saturday, with the only rain being forecast on Tuesday night and Wednesday. Don't get me wrong, the weatherman is wrong most of the time unless you live in San Diego, but that is what we are looking at now, a fast fair track.

I heard MO was a handful this morning, on the bit and ready to tear the walls down. I think he likes being back at the track he dominated on last November. Hate him if you want, but he is going to silence the critics.

re: Mott Holding a Strong Breeders' Cup Hand

JerseyBoy — Wed, 26 Oct 2011 10:33:33 GMT

Those who have questions about To Honor And Serve, should bear in mind that no horse has ever run him down when he had the lead after 6 furlongs in a distance race.

re: Mott Holding a Strong Breeders' Cup Hand

KY VET — Wed, 26 Oct 2011 04:28:02 GMT

OF course, no one has mentioned this......The LACK OF SPEED in the sprint male races is almost historic....i guess many of them we lost to injury. Usually it is a speed party of horses that can fly early..21flat horses...this is the slowest sprinters pobably ever in a cup sprint......

re: Mott Holding a Strong Breeders' Cup Hand

furlongs — Wed, 26 Oct 2011 04:11:30 GMT

Coldfacts

I have to admit I like reading your posts on here. Have you ever thought you may be looking at the wrong Bernardini colt??

re: Mott Holding a Strong Breeders' Cup Hand

Dr Drunkinbum — Wed, 26 Oct 2011 03:42:40 GMT

Coldfacts-I didn't think Uncle Mo was fully extended at all in the Kelso unless you call having one of the best strides in racing fully extended. Johnny V just let the reigns loose and Mo was gone. No whip, no struggle, just cruise control.(under a hand ride) And you can't compare the two times on different tracks in different conditions. The 8th race at Parx on 9-24 was an allowance race run in 1:35.89, the 10th race was a 6f ungraded stakes run in 1:07.51, the 12th race was a 30k claiming 6 1/2f run in 1:15.85. THAS ran a strong race but Mo's was more impressive and a much higher speed figure. Obviously the question is 10f as it is with everyone else in the race against this caliber of competition. If you want a Bernardini, I think Stay Thirsty will outfinish THAS. It will be a shocker indeed if THAS wins in a romp or at all. A top three will stun me. That's not to say it's impossible but still a shocker. I'm trying to envision it and I just can't.

re: Mott Holding a Strong Breeders' Cup Hand

GunBow — Wed, 26 Oct 2011 03:03:07 GMT

The 3 weeks before the Breeder's Cup and 2 weeks before the Derby might be my least favorite time. Because all I'm really doing is waiting for the big races hoping all the good horses stay healthy. And invariably, they are not able to stay healthy and "dream" races fall apart.

It's been a particularly tough few weeks for the Cali contingent. Gone are Blind Luck, Acclamation, Champ Pegasus, Zazu, Smiling Tiger.

As for Unzip Me, the Cal Cup Distaff is the correct spot for her. While she was 3rd in the BC Turf Sprint last year, her form this year has simply not been quite as sharp. She had gone a long time since she had lost to another female, but over the last few months she has done it a number of times.

re: Mott Holding a Strong Breeders' Cup Hand

Coldfacts — Wed, 26 Oct 2011 01:57:16 GMT

RANAGULZION

“when Johnny V switches on those 'afterburners' on the far turn”

Are you sure you are referencing the right colt?

Uncle Mo - Kelso one turn mile: 23.47, 46.03, 1:09.34, 1:33.82(fully extended)

THS - PA Derby two turns: 23 1/5, 46 3/5, 10 1/5, 1:34 3/5 (under a hand ride)

Uncle Mo cannot out run THS as he is just as fast. When the big Bernardini colt moves at the top of the stretch the Mighty Mo will wonder what hit him. He will regret not joining Jackson’s Bend in the mile.

re: Mott Holding a Strong Breeders' Cup Hand

LAZMANNICK — Wed, 26 Oct 2011 01:43:44 GMT

RANAGULZION

I hope he doesn't "duck out" if you know what I mean. At this point I have no idea who to bet. I need a good professional opinion.

re: Mott Holding a Strong Breeders' Cup Hand

Coldfacts — Wed, 26 Oct 2011 01:37:34 GMT

Furlongs,

I have taken the liberty of using a capital F in your posting title I hope you do not mind. Your cold facts are correct in every respect. Neither Uncle nor THS have won a G1 in 2011 and the BCC is Havre de Grace's race to lose as well as HOY honors. In fact To Honor and Serve is yet to taste Gl success.

I would like to take you back to the BCC of 2002. It was won by Volponi at 43-1. He never won a Gl race either before or after the BCC. He was not as talented as the two 3YOs referenced in your post. I don ot think Uncle Mo an win the BCC for a number of reason that I have already stated. However, I am of the opinion THS will be an easy winner of the race in spite of his lack of Gl success. This colt is exceptionally well bred, big, strong and fast.

WELL BRED

His sire was runner up in the BCC; his grandsire was a winner of the BCC

His sire’s dam sire (Quiet American) was the dam sire of a winner of the BCC (Saint liam sire of Havre de Grace)

His dam sire was by the sire and dam sire of a BCC winner.

His second dam was sired by a sire of a BCC winner

His third dam was sired by a sire of a BCC winner

His pedigree is loaded with Breeder Cup Classic winning sires.

BIG, STRONG & FAST:

The Nashua: gate to wire, in hand the last sixteen; whip never employed at anytime - 1:35.86

Allowance: second to top of stretch; 23.20,46.27,1:10.3,1:35.13, 1:48.31 (whip never employed at anytime)

PA Derby: second to top of stretch; 23 1/5,46 3/5,10 1/5,1:34 3/5, 1:47 1/5 (Four cracks of the whip)

This colt won his last two 9F races under almost a hand ride with an average winning time of 1:47.75. With the pedigree composition above and the speed displayed in his last two races, I am confident he will win the BCC in romp baring So You Think spoiling the party

re: Mott Holding a Strong Breeders' Cup Hand

Paula Higgins — Wed, 26 Oct 2011 01:09:11 GMT

Dr Drunkinbum LOL!! Loved that! Yes, Uncle Mo could do all that and then some. Love the little guy. So sorry to see Tizway is out. He is a very good horse. It is nice to hear that he has nice connections who will talk to you Jason, unlike someone else we (Hollendorfer). Bob from Boston, I am sure even Shakespeare, Austen, Dickens, Joyce and Mark Twain had writers block. All creative geniuses hit a wall every now and then. You are in good company.

re: Mott Holding a Strong Breeders' Cup Hand

Coldfacts — Wed, 26 Oct 2011 00:43:52 GMT

Draynay,

“Coldfacts you have no idea what you are talking about. Ghostzapper ran the mile split in 2004 in 135 1/5.”

I know you have been taking a lot of incoming fire regarding your proposed $2,000 wager on Uncle Mo. Consequently, you do not have luxury of time and therefore you are likely to miss pertinent portions of certain posts as depicted an extract from your 25 Oct 2011 1:42 AM post above. Below is the portion of my post that you are disputing:

“No BCC run at CD has recorded a mile split of 1:35 plus.”

You will note that I specified Churchill Downs. The 27th renewal of the Breeder Cup is being held at that location. For your benefit I have listed below the mile splits and winners for the six BCC contested at that track.

2010 - Blame (1:37.12)

2006 - Invasor (1:36.59)

2000 - Tiznow (1:36.08) fastest BBC at the location, 2:00.75

1998 - Awesome Again (1:37.34)

1994 - Concern (1:36.65)

1991 - Black Tie Affair (1:38.00) Gate to wire winner.

Tiznow ran the last quarter in 24.67 to achieve the 2:00.75. Tiznow won the Super Derby at LAD in a time of 1:59.84 two months before 2000 BCC. Black Tie Affair was allowed to set embarrassing fractions for a Gl race and was able to repel all challengers. Uncle Mo will enjoy no such luxury as I expect To Honor and Serve and Game On Dude to keep him honest on the lead.

Now for accusing me of having no idea I expect to man up and post an apology. However, I will not be holding my breath.

re: Mott Holding a Strong Breeders' Cup Hand

It aint easy being good! — Wed, 26 Oct 2011 00:36:09 GMT

HAHA the uncle mo show! I will agree with Dray that if it rains on Saturday bet the house on MO he will romp in the mud! I wish it was Saturday already. I cant wait for Jasons picks this year so I can make sure its an automatic toss!