One Man's Prediction on Zenyatta's 'Mysterious' Path

re: One Man's Prediction on Zenyatta's 'Mysterious' Path

ABZ — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 15:18:48 GMT

Hopefully, Zenyatta's connections will take a page from the success of Rachel Alexandra and look to take a more challenging path this year. A matchup out East or at least the BC Classic?

re: One Man's Prediction on Zenyatta's 'Mysterious' Path

LDP — Sun, 02 Aug 2009 16:52:41 GMT

Laz,

You should know by some of my past responses, that this is nowhere near how rude i can get, and i don't say that proudly. I was just saying that when you look back at when Dray and i disagreed over other issues that i got just as rude with him yet nobody took notice of that. The only time you took notice was when i agreed with him on this issue, and now you all have a problem with me. I'm suprised i didn't go off actually because my life as of now, not going to well. I'm no longer working, and no, not because i get hot headed, because physically i can't, so i'm not real happy, and i'm still wonder what the heck am i going to do now. Whatever that was way off topic, sorry i did that.

You ask me my opinion on the Haskell, i think she'll win. I don't think it will be easy, this field is IMO deeper than the Preakness, but i think she is more prepared for it, and this go around she has had plenty of rest. SB, i have no doubt is the real deal, but he should be running longer distances, and he'll run out of ground. Munnings is hot, and he's coming off two pretty good efforts, but honestly i think BD is a better horse, speed wise at least and RA stretch him beyond his limit, plus he ducked her this go around. I can see where you come from by your point on the WVD, but i think the jock was dumb to let BD go, i think they went faster than needed, especially when you consider BD doesn't NEED the lead and he can rate. The jock could've gotten away with a 24 or 25 if he wanted and left more in the tank. SW did run a bang up race to beat him though, since BD though tired dug right back in to try and fight him off. BD to me in that race looked like last years War Pass in the Wood in the stetch, and SW was T of E. If Calvin keeps his head about him and doesn't do anything stupid or fancy RA should win today.

re: One Man's Prediction on Zenyatta's 'Mysterious' Path

LAZMANNICK — Sun, 02 Aug 2009 03:28:47 GMT

LDP

I figured I'd get a rise out of you. What's your opinion of the Haskell? How well do you really think Rachel is going to? Much better than MTB I hope. I think she is going to be up against it even though, from a pace scenario, she should an advantage, The key, of course, is Munnings. If he is distance challenged it might be all over. However, I have a feeling on Duke of Mischief.....why? He hammered Sould Warrior by five very easily in the Iowa Derby and we saw how Soul Warriour stepped up today in the WVD. Just a thought.

re: One Man's Prediction on Zenyatta's 'Mysterious' Path

Matthew W — Sun, 02 Aug 2009 01:21:40 GMT

Tim G I'll go one further--I can think of NO filly/mare who has defeated older males at 1 1/4 on the main--NONE in my forty years as a fan! Some people think Zenyatta is "coddled" because they do not take that path, as if it's just the everyday thing to do! All the trash talk bravado!

re: One Man's Prediction on Zenyatta's 'Mysterious' Path

LDP — Sat, 01 Aug 2009 17:15:02 GMT

Laz,

I am hardly an expert in everything there is, and as can be seen i'm ready to admit it. I dont twist things i state them how i see them and if i think i'm right i'm not backing off. I've been like this on blogs ever since i started, nobody noticed it because last year i was on the side the majority believed in. Now that i actually side with Dray on something, it seems people don't like my bluntness. I'm not going to change just to appease someone else, and most of you will like that when i actually start to agree with you again.

re: One Man's Prediction on Zenyatta's 'Mysterious' Path

LDP — Sat, 01 Aug 2009 17:10:34 GMT

Tim G,

Never have done, never will do cross country, but though equitation is my main thing i have done show jumping many times. Also where have i belittled RTR, i give her credit for winning against the feild she did and take nothing away, all i have said is that i think the stumble was not as bad as it has been made out to look, how is that belittling a horse? If i come across superior, sorry, that is not what i mean to do. Naturally i'm blunt, hot headed and stubborn, especially when i'm not in a very good mood. If that comes across as superior, sorry. I am not a math person, but i do have an affinity for science, don't know why i like it and not math, but whatever. As far as me saying you have belittled others, no i have not, in fact i don't think i've ever seen you do it. I was saying that others from the Zen side and from the RA side both do it. I was not pointing out you specificly, and never would, i don't like to call someone out unless i actually need to. Normally i like debates, but this has turned into more of a feud, and those i'm not fond of. I can see neither of us will agree on each others points, so i'm willing to drop it and agree to disagree.

re: One Man's Prediction on Zenyatta's 'Mysterious' Path

bobby — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 20:27:10 GMT

I laughed everything peeps mention how Rachel won by 20+ lengths. Well duh..who exactly is her competition. She runs against restricted company and most of the 3 year old are unproven commodity. These are not established grade 1 horses. They might run in grade 1 for 3 year olds but that is SO DIFFERENT from OPEN GRADE 1 races. Having said that Rachel is a very good filly but GREAT?? ummm NO WAY!

Her placement at the Haskells should burst that bubble. I predict her to come third behind SB and Munnings.

re: One Man's Prediction on Zenyatta's 'Mysterious' Path

Tim G — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 17:47:48 GMT

I'm at the track using a laptop so forgive me if this is not 'together', I'm techno challenged.

LDP, actually I'm just stating statistical facts and realities of the racing world. Not interjecting points based on my own happenstance outside of the subject. Not sure what all the injury stuff etc is about. Show jumping (you said you aren't a cross country jumper or an eventer before right?) You said you do equitation and that is JUDGED that is subjective.

If it comes off as being a superior attitude and you have a problem with that? Well, think you should examine your own writing and the way you address things.

You said yourself you're not a math person, well a lot of the premise I was speaking of involves mathematical equations (force, velocity etc) as well as the law of physics,statistics both of which are based on mathematics.

Todd said it affected her race and it well may have affected her physical condition as well.

But guess he really doesn't know, nor do the experts of the RACING game.

If it comes of as sounding superior to quote experts, people who actually work with the specific horse, well our ideas of superiority are different.

To me, the unyielding 'I know it' of someone who is observing from the outside comes off as acting supeior. But that's just my opinion.

As far as telling the HOF trainers?

That was sarcasm dear, I really think they'd believe I lost my mind if I commented to them about an anonymous fan on a blog comment section, who isn't a race tracker disputing their opinions on the subject. It was my way of telling you that among the experts who believe it was pretty amazing for Rags to win the race after going to her knees, were at least 3 HOF trainers.

Even though two in particular are very fan friendly and have been involved with the youth organizations like the former Kids to the Cup etc. I'll bet they never ran up against a kid like you. Those kids are thrilled with the interaction and insight they got from those guys.

As for belittling any horse? Read back on my posts, I gave props to them all. YOU 'belittled' Rags to bolster Rachel, if you believe that comparing the competition and saying other horses accomplishments were less impressive because of their competition. Hoist with your own petard.

Now I really must run, 3rd coming up.

re: One Man's Prediction on Zenyatta's 'Mysterious' Path

LDP — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 15:46:08 GMT

Wiz,

I get where you are coming from, and kinda sorta agree with your methods. I do agree with you on the point that if more fillies entered the TC races we would probably see more winners. My point is that as of now, which kinda stinks is that they havent been. I disagee with your math because out of the 53 fillies ever entered only 5 have won. That is less than ten percent. Colts have won the other 48 times. To me that says they have a higher win ratio, or at least in the Preakness. I do agree though if more fillies at a time entered the TC races each year then we'd see more winners.

re: One Man's Prediction on Zenyatta's 'Mysterious' Path

LAZMANNICK — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 15:22:10 GMT

LDP: You're starating to sound like Draynay.....AN EXPERT IN WHATEVER SUBJECT COMES UP AS WELL, OF COURSE, AS A DO-IT-ALL.

Why don't you just look at the facts a little more logical instead of trying to twist everything to you advantage. When you do, then you will get it.

re: One Man's Prediction on Zenyatta's 'Mysterious' Path

the_wiz — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 13:48:12 GMT

"I'm not a math person so i'm not quite following you. My thing is that you can't say because more colts enter than fillies, they have a higher winning percentage."

LDP 29 Jul 2009 5:34 PM

LDP, yes you can. This year 13 horses went to post in the Preakness if memory serves me right. 12 of 13 were colts so there was a 92.3% chance that a colt would win the race and there was a 7.7% chance a Filly would win based on the sex of the entrants. Simple as that. That is my point completely. Filly's win at a much higher percentage based on number of entrants by sex. What it tells me is that more Fillies should enter the Triple Crown Races. The best of them would be far more competitive than for instance the 18 weak colts other than Big Brown last year in the KY Derby. Oh yeah the one Filly entered proved that. In the last two years only two fillies have entered a Triple Crown Race. The result one win and one place showing. Pretty impressive percentage!! Add to that the last Filly to enter a Triple Crown Race and you have 3 entrants and 2 wins and a place showing. Even more impressive!! A 66% win ration in the biggest 3 yr old races of the year and a 100% place ratio based on total number of Fillies entered. 2/3 win, 3/3 place. The only way to prove that wrong would be to split the entrants by sex, half Fillies and half colts and see how that plays out. I think the best Fillies would hold their own every year.

Your figures are extremely misleading the way you look at it. 5/53 Preaknesses won by Fillies but how many of those 53 included Fillies? Not all of the 53 Preaknesses you are talking about had Fillies entered. There was a 0% chance for them to win those races. You can't count any of those in comparison.

re: One Man's Prediction on Zenyatta's 'Mysterious' Path

draynot — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 13:22:43 GMT

"Macho Again was a very good horse last year but it was tough with Big Brown around. Without him around Macho Again now rules the older division. So you can claim all you want the Preakness was weak last year but the facts don't support that opinion."

Draynay 28 Jul 2009 11:32 PM

If you believe this crap it's a good thing for Rachael Alexandra thet Songstress who whipped her by over 8 lengths last year, Best Lass who whipped her by 5 1/2 last year, Symbology who whipped her by 3 1/2 last year, Sara Louise who whipped her by 3 3/4 last year, and all the others who beat her last year aren't around since they made it really tough on her then.

You can't compare how a horse ran last year to this year especially young animals. RA is the perfect example. She's had a great year to this point. Last year others were far better. Same goes for Macho Again, last year he wasn't anywhere near as good as he is this year. Last years Macho Again would get whipped by this years Macho Man.

re: One Man's Prediction on Zenyatta's 'Mysterious' Path

LDP — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 03:22:29 GMT

Tim G,

Maybe i'm wrong but i'm detecting a very superior attitude coming from you, and honestly one way to really get under my skin is act superior to me. I don't care whether you are or not, you don't need to flaunt it around to make others feel inferior to you. You want to call cross country and show jumping subjective, you are wrong. You want to try to do what some of us hard core jumper show people do and see if you can keep up, be my guest. You want to do it dealing with what i have to deal with each time i get on a horse do it. It's the reason i people say i can't handle on farm work, why i get hurt, yet i'll climb on a 1200 pound animal and get it done no matter how much it hurts, so don't even dare say anything about the effort it takes to perfect and prepare yourself to ride a perfect course, get the best time, know where to cut time, how tight to cut a turn, or how fast to take a jump, so you can ride the fastest cleanest course, subjective or not it takes a lot of effort for those of us who actually do go out and try our best.

On your little hall of fame bit, go ahead and tell them what i think, untill you go and actually provide me with something solid, i'm not going to budge, and could really care less what you say, or anyone else for that matter. My point is not on the time itself as a whole in the Belmont i'm talking about the pace, and it was as the announcer called it pedestrian. I've run track, and honestly for me a person who likes distance, the slower i go in the begining, i don't care where i'm positioned at, the more i have left over to give a burst at the end. Loosing a length or two at the start of a mile and a half race does not hinder you that much, because you have so much time to correct your mistake. War Emblem was inflexible, that is why he lost, RTR was not, she did not NEED the lead at all, she could rate. What is needed in a race of that length is patience, and when you have a horse like RTR who is willing to lay back and be patient, that type of start doesn't matter. An example this year is IWR. Broke way way worse than RTR, had less distace to correct his mistake, yet because of his willingness to be patient he was able to lay back and make a run. War Emblem was not willing and that is why he got beat. RTR was willing, and because of that she still got a pretty decent trip and won. You can argue with me all you want but honestly i'm not budging, i've said it time and time again, if i have something stuck in my head your not going to persuade me unless you have some cold hard facts. On this and your belittling thing i'm happy to agree to disagree, cause honestly i don't agree with you on that either. People were't just anyalizing, they said RA has face a bunch of inferior fillies, as well as it has been said about Zenyatta. People have call the preakness horses weak, PC is not weak, niether is MTB, BC, or MM. For fillies, FS, JJ, SL, and DE aren't weak fillies. If RA weren't around JJ and FS probably would've been the favorites of the oaks. Calling a horse weak or inferior is not just anyalizing, especially when used in an argument to show how another horse is not as good as anothers favorite. I am not accusing you of it, i never have and won't call anyone out, but it does go both ways. Whether your going to accept that or not is your choice, and i don't think you will, which is why i said i'd be happy to agree to disagree.

re: One Man's Prediction on Zenyatta's 'Mysterious' Path

Tim G — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 00:29:55 GMT

Okay LDP I'll tell three Hall of Fame trainers that you don't agree with them.

Do you understand the dynamics of physics?

Any time you make a correction or expend additional energy you do JUST that. Expend energy you would not have otherwise expended.

The glaring difference in a sprint is you have less distance to make your correction therefore you have to have a burst of energy to do so. That is why you SELDOM see a horse that sticks it's nose in the dirt, WIN a sprint or even a distance race, note War Emblem in the Belmont. Why? His running style, get to the front and stay there. NOt at a killer pace but just be at the front. The difference between the two types of races is you've already run further than your competition at a high rate of speed. Just like a human at the end of a distance race, your lungs are burning and the lactic acid is starting to build up in your muscles. It may not make as big of a difference as a sprint would, but it is very rare that ANY horse wins when it goes totally to its knees. Also it changes the race for your competition when anything goes amiss or the pace of the race changes or whatever may occur out of the norm.

Bottom line is, winning the Belmont is TOUGH. It's a race these 3 year olds never dreamed of running and will probably never run again. It's a race that frankly, Jess didn't want to put Rachel through.

As far as the sloooowwwwww time? 8 of Belmonts in the 15 year time period up to and including 07 were slower than hers. Those whose times she beat were no slouches, Afleet Alex, Touch Gold, Etc.

A distance race is usually not the same splits as a shorter race. It takes a rare horse to set killer early splits and finish out in 23 and 5/8 in a 12 furlong race. Rags ran against Curlin and some other VERY nice horses.

On the belittling issue? I don't see analyzing the competition as belittling the horse who is running against other horses. It is belittling those competitors only if you call them names or demean them.

Belittling as I said is making THAT specific horse look like a lesser horse by calling it names, demeaning its position in the world of racing (usually by people who have NO ACTUAL EXPERIENCE in THE world of racing). Almost nobody on the track disrespects Rachel, almost nobody on the track respects anyone who demeans a horse who has proven itself and has won a boatload of money.

THAT is why everyone got so perturbed with Rick Dutrow last year. His total disrespect for his fellow trainers and the horses he was running against.

You guys slay me. You have NO idea how hard it is to win ANY race, let alone one of the classics if you don't have or haven't had a race horse. I don't care what kind of horse show 'event' you participate in. Because horse shows are subjective, speed events in rodeo and horse racing are NOT.

re: One Man's Prediction on Zenyatta's 'Mysterious' Path

Soldier Course — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 23:35:45 GMT

the_wiz:

I'll let you do the math, but yes, the percentages look impressive for the fillies.

re: One Man's Prediction on Zenyatta's 'Mysterious' Path

LDP — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 21:49:03 GMT

Tim G,

I have seen other say how inferior RA's cometition is to show how inferior she is to Zenyatta. The belittling goes both ways. I never said i didn't do it, i've will admit i have state that i don't think MANY, not all of the horses Zenyatta has face were completely outclassed by her. People say RA has face nor beaten nobody. Well Dream Empress, Sarha Louis, Flying Spur, and Just Jenda are no slouches. Like Zenyatta, many of RA has not face a great number of fantastic horses, but she has face some that were pretty good in their own right. You Belmont argument i still don't agree with. You have plenty of time in a race of it's length, plus it's typically run slower that other races, making it easier to gallop up and get yourself reposistioned. Especially with how slow they went that year. I think the six furlong time was like 1.15 or something right around there. That is slow. If the Belmont were shorter like a mile or maybe less, and had a larger field i can see how it would be costly. An example is Henny Huges. He was the favorite for the BC Sprint, but that break just totaled his chances. He never had a chance to regain position because the race was too short, and the field was so big. Plus, the fact that a sprint is run faster requires a horse to exert more energy to regain position. In a race as long as the Belmont, run as slow as it was in 07, and in a much smaller field, it made RTR job much easier to do.

re: One Man's Prediction on Zenyatta's 'Mysterious' Path

LDP — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 21:34:45 GMT

the wiz,

I'm not a math person so i'm not quite following you. My thing is that you can't say because more colts enter than fillies, they have a higher winning percentage. In that case in every female race fillies have a horrible win rate in theire own races. You have to look at how many fillies have won, ever. That is only five, out of fifty three. That means that colts won the other forty eight times. Same as in any other race a filly has challenged a colt. RA was the fifth filly ever to win the Preakness while only four before her out of fifty three ever been entered. Colts have the higher win rate.

re: One Man's Prediction on Zenyatta's 'Mysterious' Path

Sarah B. — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 17:05:09 GMT

I agree with alot of your all's comments in that with the way things are going we'll never really know how good Zenyatta is. Chances are, she'll be retired after this year without ever facing the boys OR Rachel Alexandra. Although her victories have been impressive (even if her competition isn't), and her record is perfect, she isn't completely breath-taking and her wins haven't been complete blow-outs like Rachel Alexandra's. When was the last time she won by 20+? Don't get me wrong --- She's still definitely one of my favorites, and she's definitely an amazing racehorse (HOTY material? Maybe not). A match race would be fantastic, and would probably draw a whole lot of attention from fans everywhere, but I think it's time to face the realization --- it's not going to happen. And even if it did, my money is still on Rachel.

re: One Man's Prediction on Zenyatta's 'Mysterious' Path

gw_bushwacker — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 15:52:56 GMT

draynay,

You still don't get it. Macho Again has improved by light years from the sorry competition he was when he faced the big ole browneye. If they faced off now he'd bury brownie by 10. That wasn't the case last year. big brown faced him when he was not so good and to top it off brownie was on the juice. That's my point. Just because Macho Again has improved doesn't fatten brownies resume. The big ole browneye never beat Macho Again at his best. The Detroit Tigers are in first place this year because they are a much improved team. It doesn't make those who finished above them last year great when the Tigers reaked at the time.

re: One Man's Prediction on Zenyatta's 'Mysterious' Path

the_wiz — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 15:41:28 GMT

LDP,

This is how.

"the percentage of winners by entrants for Fillies is far greater than the Colts."

The percentage BY ENTRANTS is going to be far greater for Fillies. 4 winners from how many filly entrants vs 70 winners from how many colt entrants. If only 20 fillies ( I don't know the actual number)have entered the Preakness over the years that would be 4/20 winners or 20% of Fillies entered win. If 40 have entered that's still 1 of 10 entered win. The colts can never match that percentage.

You can't count races when no Fillies were entered. The fairest way to compare is by number of entrants, by sex, by winners.

That's why I said they should regularly enter the best Fillies in the Triple Crown Races every year. They win a higher percentage of the time than colts by entries.

I would much rather have seen Zenyatta run in the 2008 KY Derby, Preakness, and Belmont than some of the sorry lot that ran last year.

re: One Man's Prediction on Zenyatta's 'Mysterious' Path

Tim G — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 15:36:32 GMT

LDP, no, comparing competition is the way you determine a horses accomplishments.

Running them down or belittling them as you put it is calling them flukes or pretenders or whatever else some have chosen to call them.

You've done your fair share of analyzing Zenyatta's inferior opponents (by your estimate), running in Cal and others as well.

Some of the Pretenders on this blog should actually come out and support racing. Come to the Spa (it may rain today but who cares, it's still sensational) or go ANYWHERE to support racing and actually BET, that helps us a lot.

Actually, you may study racing, but ASK someone who is an expert what a difference it makes to lose a couple lengths in a 12 furlong race. The filly had to alter her running style and give extra effort to regain those lengths she lost. In a race where they've never run that far and are extending themselves to the max that they've ever done? Takes quite a bit out of them and makes those last couple furlongs seem like miles.

It's obvious in a sprint but much more subtle yet those of us it's happened to KNOW it makes a difference. A lot of horses that like to run up closer to the pace will just give up and ANY extra physical taxing takes something out of a horse. Why do you think we're concerned when a horse acts up in the paddock or in the post parade. They're expending energy that is best conserved for the race. The law of physics and physiology.

draynot, lest you forget the very unimportant Travers, which has now become ultra important and if she wins it she's the greatest according to YOU KNOW WHO, yet running against the same horses for BB last year proved nothing per your advisary (especially since she's just going to run up against the 'fluke' as he calls him)?

That race is important EVERY year. Those people like him and the others who say it isn't? Like someone called them once, neophytes.

And no Draynay that has NOTHING to do with religion it the context it was used then or now.

re: One Man's Prediction on Zenyatta's 'Mysterious' Path

Greg J. — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 15:14:46 GMT

Draynot,

Agree 100 Percent on Dray!!! It is laughable, His comments have no logic to them, He changes his stance more then the weather. Then when someone points it out, He comes up with lame excuses or just ignores those comments that prove him wrong, over and over....Thanks for going back and finding his contradictions....

re: One Man's Prediction on Zenyatta's 'Mysterious' Path

LAZMANNICK — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 14:51:32 GMT

Hey Draynot:

I wonder what the GREAT I AM'S' next bandwagon is going to be. He might even have to find another one after this weekend. I just feel bad for Rachel because alot of negative comments about her are solely because of Draynay

re: One Man's Prediction on Zenyatta's 'Mysterious' Path

LDP — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 14:18:28 GMT

Pam S,

Thanks. I was just busy daydreaming and got to thinking well JJ said he wouldn't go to the Cup to race on synthetics, but why not go there to run on turf. Plus as of now it is a neutral site. What if Zen was going to go a turf race and won. Both then could be pointed for the F&M turf or even better the BC Turf. Oh darn my imagination, you got it going again.

re: One Man's Prediction on Zenyatta's 'Mysterious' Path

LDP — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 14:07:08 GMT

the_wiz,

How do you get that 4 out of 53 fillies in the history of the Preakness gives them a better winning percentage than the colts. Out of fifty three fillies four have won. That does not bode well when colts have won the other 70 or so runnings of it.