Breeders' Cup Prop Bets

re: Breeders' Cup Prop Bets

Saratoga AJ — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 12:33:57 GMT

Tim G:

First HOTY Awarded in 1887.

Chosen by vote since 1936.

See:

en.wikipedia.org/.../American_Horse_of_the_Year

re: Breeders' Cup Prop Bets

Tim G — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 00:35:24 GMT

s, guess you're AJ?

Like I said I'm not debating RA at all. I'm saying it should be based on a point system and THAT way you'd have the best horses showing up at the best races. THAT is the theory behind it.

Like I've documented on here before, my family has been in racing for generations and I've also seen most of the greats run in person since the 50's.

RA is terrific, BUT, as applies to Zenyatta, the level of competition must be considered. Ruffian, Bayakoa, Azeri, Lady's Secret and of course Winning Colors winning the ULTIMATE race against males. All the others as well. Greatest filly ever? Matter of opinion.

As far as HOY? That award as the Eclipse Award and an official designation of that has only been around since 71(?).

re: Breeders' Cup Prop Bets

Thu, 05 Nov 2009 21:49:22 GMT

Tim G:

I was there to see Kelso win 5 in a row. I've seen all the greats live since 1960. That was always the pinnacle award of the racing year...the best horse of that year.

Rachel is the best filly I've ever seen since along with Ruffian. And like I said before, I really don't wish to debate this any further. I got handicapping to do for the next two days. Ciao.

re: Breeders' Cup Prop Bets

Tim G — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 21:16:08 GMT

p.s. Everyone remembers HOY award?

First we have people calling it HOTY, not ONE person in the industry that I know calls it that. Plus, we're talking about the casual fans who watch the BC, TC races and THAT is it. You aren't going to SA, but if you were I'd suggest you go around taking a poll and ask who won the award 5 years ago, heck 3 years ago is probabl a mystery to MOST people. You're fooling yourself if you think otherwise. And here I thought it was us industry folks that you all have been saying are out of touch......

re: Breeders' Cup Prop Bets

Tm G — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 21:12:56 GMT

Yep, who cares what ANYONE in the industry thinks.

You are right though, the industry is represented by racing secretaries who have their own agendas. If it's 'voted' on why not let the people in the game do it, similarly to the SAG and Academy Awards? Each licensed active member gets a vote. Believe it or not we DO know a good horse when we see one. I'm not arguing about Rachel per se, just the whole process which has been diluted.

Plus I'm disputing your claim that it's irrelevant if Zenyatta wins the Classic. I assure you the public as a whole, who as one famous trainer says, have a short attention span re racing (and most other things really) first, won't even KNOW that RA is HOY. Second that crowd we're trying to attract? They'll be watching the BC, NOT the Haskell or the Woodward or any of the other races RA ran in other than the Preakness, unfortunately.

As far as Stronach? He said this AFTER he won an award that everyone thought was pandering, including him.

HE is the one leading the charge for a point system but CERTAINLY not alone in it.

For an interesting perspective, see what Gary Player has to say about it. For a point of view from a trainer on Zenyatta, read what Barry, Aidan et al have to say. Oh but they probably are clueless as well.

Curious, what does AJ stand for?

re: Breeders' Cup Prop Bets

Saratoga AJ — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 17:52:28 GMT

Tim G

Ice says it because he thinks SB should be HOTY if he wins the BC Classic. No way of coarse since SB was easily beaten by 6 1/2 in the Haskell in between his Belmont and Travers win. Ice is dreaming. And who cares what Stronach thinks.

They don't vote anyway.

Every handicapper and local turf writer I know has ceded the HOTY title to RA. Argue it with them, not me.

Not important? Everyone remembers HOTY winners. It's still Racing's biggest award. Always was, and always will be.

re: Breeders' Cup Prop Bets

Saratoga AJ — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 13:09:55 GMT

LAZMANNICK

No, watching on my 52" LCD TV with phone in hand (phone-a-bet).

Only California track I've been to was Del Mar in August. Only Breeders Cups I've been to were at Belmont.

BTW, IF ANY OF YOU ARE INTERESTED, CHECK OUT OAK TREE SANTA ANITA WEBSITE. IF YOU SIGN UP ON THEIR OAK TREE BETS AND DEPOSIT AND BET AT LEAST $100 WITHIN 30 DAYS, THEY WILL DEPOSIT A FREE $100 BACK INTO YOU ACCOUNT THE NEXT DAY. THIS IS ON THE LEVEL. SO, IF YOU SIGN UP, DEPOSIT $100, BET IT ALL ON FRIDAY'S BC RACES, WIN OR LOSE, THEY WILL GIVE YOU 4100 TO BET ON SATURDAY'S BC RACES. AMAZING DEAL!

re: Breeders' Cup Prop Bets

Tim G — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 08:21:31 GMT

Well AJ, I'm not the only one saying it. Tim Ice said it, Frank Stronach and many others who are IN racing.

She should stand on her own merit but when you figure it's a VOTE and not based on POINTS?

Not too many are actually chasing it any longer. Just some with huge egos about the horses they paid outrageous sums for AFTER they were made horses.

Insulting Turf Writers? LOL

Even Jason has said repeatedly that he didn't place much on the HOY.

I'm betting if 'some' of these turf writers had opinions different from yours they'd be flakes in your eyes.

My opinion, there are several who are flakes PERIOD.

Face it they are people with opinions, their own way of coming to conclusions and NOTHING involving human preference is absolute.

I still say if Zenyatta wins the Classic and yes that's a big if. She DOESN'T HAVE to win by a dozen lengths to be considered one of a kind THE ONLY Filly/Mare to EVER win the BC classic.

You're pretty funny if you think more than 10% of the 'fans' watching the BC will even care about RA and whether she wins HOY. MOST who go to that event and/or watch on TV are CLUELESS about the Eclipse awards. Whatever happens with Zenyatta or MTB or Summer Bird or any of the others, they are there. For me, an older horse on an uncertain surface is a challenge that SHOULD be met by anyone wanting to help the game.

2 year olds are a different story though.

Lordy thes girls in love with horses. Part of me thinks it's great for racing and part of me thinks it gets carried away at times.

re: Breeders' Cup Prop Bets

LAZMANNICK — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 02:31:23 GMT

Sartoga

Hope you have a good two days wathing the BC or are you lucky enough to attend?. I hope it's the latter because then you will get to see one of the best mares of all time strut her stuff. LOL

re: Breeders' Cup Prop Bets

Footlick — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 00:47:05 GMT

Saratoga- weren't bottles of wine sent to the voters? Or was that a rumor. If it was I apologize, but I'm sure I saw pics of them. Anything like that should not be allowed. Both Curlin and RA can stand on their own merits.

re: Breeders' Cup Prop Bets

Saratoga AJ — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 22:51:42 GMT

Lazmannick:

It's called Horse of the YEAR for a reason, not Horse of one Race. She ran only four times against crap all year, and almost lost at that, running slow times.

I'm done debating this with any of you who believe Rachel has not done enough to garner HOTY already. It's a dead issue. And I'm sure 90% of the racing fans and more importantly the turf writers and handicappers agree with me. Enjoy the ceremony next January.

re: Breeders' Cup Prop Bets

LAZMANNICK — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 18:20:16 GMT

IMO if Zenyatta wins the Classic and Rachel is awarded HOY, then it will be one of the most tarnished HOY awards in recent memory.....You can say all you want about Rachel facing and defeating males three times, but when you analyze those races she faced them at the most opportune time.....Taking nothing away from her accomplishments, but to even remotely suggest that the competition in any of Rachel's races this year approached the class and toughness of those running in the Classic is pretty far fetched.....Arguably, the Classic is the toughest field in N/A this year.....period!

re: Breeders' Cup Prop Bets

Saratoga AJ — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 17:50:26 GMT

Footlick:

Unbelievable.

re: Breeders' Cup Prop Bets

Footlick — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 16:47:43 GMT

Saratoga- gifts should not be able to be given. That should not ever come into play. It should be a rule. Period. There is enough dissension and bias without that.

re: Breeders' Cup Prop Bets

Saratoga AJ — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 06:49:13 GMT

Tim G:

8 for 8 at 7 different tracks, including the greatest tracks in the country, against the best competition around including the males, setting or just missing track/stakes records, with the highest Beyer numbers of the year, etc, etc, IS NOT A POPULARITY CONTEST my friend. GET REAL.

The turf writers would be insulted by your dumb accusation.

re: Breeders' Cup Prop Bets

Footlick — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 01:02:26 GMT

Saratoga AJ- I appreciate that she won't be any value. So I can appreciate not betting her. But, I just like to handicap, discuss and study breeding. It keeps me occupied in between art commissions.

re: Breeders' Cup Prop Bets

Tim G — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 23:41:27 GMT

AJ yes, if they'd have mapped out that path, with her being a 5 year old she'd be sitting at home gossiping with Rachel.

Like most in the game are saying? HOY has become a popularity contest.

All the guys want to get in good with the Prom Queens rich Dad.

Funny usually those kind would have won it on their own.

Romp by a dozen? If she becomes the first female to WIN the Classic, in 5 years the public who watches the BC, the crowd we're trying to attract? Won't be able to tell you who the HOY was, but guarantee Zenyatta's name will come up EVERY time.

I know folks who bought tickets and were waiting to see if she went in The Classic and are flying out just to watch Saturday, me included. TVG has been saying that racing NEEDS Zen in the Classic.

Lets not pick and choose what we listen to from them.

Now my question is what kind of precedent does this HOY set?

re: Breeders' Cup Prop Bets

Saratoga AJ — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 21:03:42 GMT

Footlick:

Look, if she wins, I'll tip my hat to her. But I will not bet her...no value and she's in deep.

All I will say is if she wins, it was a crying shame that her connections mapped out such a lousy, unambitious schedule for her. She should have been showcased at the great tracks like Belmont, Churchill and Saratoga. All on a REAL surface. And faced better competition than allowance mares in all but one race.

It will ultimately cost her HOTY, no matter what she does in the Classic short of romping by a dozen.

re: Breeders' Cup Prop Bets

Footlick — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 16:04:55 GMT

Saratoga AJ- you may be right but the pace is the reason for that, not the way she finishes. And I don't make excuses, I just try to point out the facts of the whole race, not just the final time. If you don't think she can win don't bet her. Many people here believe she is slower because of that. The fact that she just does what she has to do in her races is always going to be an issue. I believe she runs to her opposition, just like Zarkava last year. When the opposition steps up, she will step up too. But if, she doesn't, she doesn't. I read all the figure makers from Globe and Timeform to Thoro-graph and Ragozin. The last two have had trouble making reliable figures for her this year because they have crawled the first half of her races. Last year they were setting much faster fractions up front to try to beat her. This year they decided to crawl the early part of her races to try and be able to finish with her, It didn't work either but it has made their figure making of her races very difficult-their words. With that pace in front of her, there is no physical way she could run her last quarters in 19 flat. So, you also may bet against her at your own risk because this is horse racing and there are no certainties. BTW- Globeform offered a full refund for their BC analysis package if Zenyatta and Goldikova both win. And they didn't feel Zenyatta was vulnerable here. But, they are Euros so what do they know.

re: Breeders' Cup Prop Bets

Saratoga AJ — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 12:35:37 GMT

Footlick and Matthew W:

So slower pace is your excuse? The difference in times from last years races to this year equates into 6+, 9+, and 13 lengths slower. She will go off the biggest underlay of the day, and one of the biggest in BC history. Bet her at your own risk.

re: Breeders' Cup Prop Bets

Curlin — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 18:32:05 GMT

Along the whole post position prop bet, how about a prop bet for the Classic where you bet which horse draws which post position. I think the odds might be better at hitting the lottery than say betting Quality Road to draw PP 8 and actually hitting it.

As far as the prop bets you have mentioned above, I'll take the over on the 22-1 as being the biggest longshot BC winner. Only 1 time since 2001, and that was in the mud in 2007 at Monmouth Park, has their not been at least 1 horse win at odds of at least 22-1 or more at the Breeders Cup. Desert Code did it last year in the Turf Sprint, Mieque's Approval did it in 2006 in the Turf Mile, Pleasant Home did it in 2005 in the Distaff and so on.

As far as my own personal "real" bets, I'll play a $5 straight Pick 4 for fun ending in the Classic, Goldikova / Crown of Thorns / Spanish Moon / Einstein. Goldikova is in my opinion, the best single at the Breeders Cup, Crown of Thorns will be very dangerous 3rd off the layoff and at a 2-turn mile, Spanish Moon will be 3rd choice behind his stablemate Conduit and Dar Re Mi but I think he'll prove to be the best of the 3 and Einstein is proven on this track and at this distance. There's only going to be 1 favorite in the ticket and I think the other 3 are "live" longshots if you want to call them that. Besides, I've done a lot dumber things with $5. Good luck to all except Dray, lol.

re: Breeders' Cup Prop Bets

draynay — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 18:24:58 GMT

All of you keep running your gums. You only have 5 days left. Then I can listen to all the excuses why Zenyatta got whipped. Trust me she wants no part of CJ or Music Note. Her times THIS YEAR are simply too slow. She is simply not fast enough to factor in a race against the boys. Anyone with real racing knowledge will not bet a penny on her to beat the boys.

re: Breeders' Cup Prop Bets

Shiznik — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 17:16:59 GMT

If Zenyatta were to break down in the Classic it wouldn't be because there were males on the race track.

Although, I agree, the squeaky wheels would howl so loud that the general public would be fooled into thinking that Zenyatta was mishandled.

re: Breeders' Cup Prop Bets

Matthew W — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 14:48:24 GMT

When a deep closer wins, their final time depends on the PACE of the race--check out Zenyatta's last two--49ish 1/2's, meaning the final tiome will be slow---I do not worry about that--she's at her best right now--Shirreffs isn't hedging one bit--he's very confident, and that is telling, when you consider how careful the guy plays it--I would say if she gets a good trip they're all in trouble...

re: Breeders' Cup Prop Bets

Footlick — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 14:03:14 GMT

Saratoga AJ- her times are slower because this year they have tried to beat her by setting ridiculously slow paces. Ragozin said they have had a hard time figuring her numbers this year because of the pace issue. They are divided on her last race. Is she as good as last year? Who knows, but the scenarios of her races this year have been compromised by 1:14 and 1:13 six furlong splits. Plus they said her figures are even more compounded by the fact that she only does enough to win. She's not the type to blow a field away. It is a difficult call. If you like her you will give her a chance. If you don't, you won't. All I know is that she can close with anyone in the race and I can't imagine her connections putting her there if she wasn't going to fire. But, it's horse racing so anything can happen. Ragozin said all in all, if she hasn't peaked, she fits with the best in the field. They just aren't sure.