Don't Read Too Much Into Works

re: Don't Read Too Much Into Works

Mike Relva — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 14:43:27 GMT

JASON:

Thanks! Good luck to you,my gf lives in near Burbank,I always enjoy visiting Calif.

re: Don't Read Too Much Into Works

Jason Shandler — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 05:14:28 GMT

Curlin and everyone else: Picks in by midnight tonight.

Mike: I dont the post matters for Zenyatta. She's gonna fall back anyway and save ground.

re: Don't Read Too Much Into Works

Tim G — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 05:04:47 GMT

Nurse Paula, not me in Urgent Care, Joe was.

Sorry if I presented incorrectly. I was just thinking it was kind of ironic that a director of urgent care passed in his sleep at a still relatively young age with no warning signs.

I'm a little more specialized but spend a fair amount of time in clinic settings of various types.

re: Don't Read Too Much Into Works

Curlin — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 04:09:19 GMT

Matthew W,

Nice observation on Zenyatta's last race fractions, but we've seen over and over again how synthetic route races usually play much closer to turf than dirt races in that the go fairly slow early then it's a calvary charge to the wire and often times a blanket finish.

I take nothing away from Zenyatta, she's a great mare regardless of what some on here may say, but she's never seen horses like this who also have a great turn of foot and will undoubtedly get 1st run on the leaders before she will. If we're playing closing fractions, then Richard's Kid made up 4 lengths into an 11 4/5 final 1/8 in the Goodwood leaving him somewhere in the 11 flat range. Mine That Bird, made up 4 3/4 lengths into that same final 1/8 which would put him at almost a sub 11 final 1/8. Using that same logic that means Zenyatta has a better closing kick than Richard's Kid, but not as good as MTB.

I'm not saying Zenyatta isn't without a shot in here, but in order to get her picture taken, she will need to stay closer than normal to a better pace than she is use to seeing against much better horses. She has stayed close to a decent pace one time in her life. She was only 4 3/4 lengths off a 1:10 3/5 clip in the Clement Hirsch last year and got up to win by a length. It was probably one of the best races in her life, but the difference is, on Saturday, she won't be facing Model and Tough Tiz's Sis.

If Zenyatta gets up to win Saturday, all my exotic tickets (PK 3, PK 4, PK 6, Exacta, etc.) will be worth nothing, but I can say I got to see one of the best female horses of all time finish out her career by doing something that no other filly or mare has ever done. Sure as a gambler I'll be upset, but better yet, as a horse racing fan, I'll have seen a true great in this sport finish out her career in style.

re: Don't Read Too Much Into Works

Curlin — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 03:40:34 GMT

Jason,

Not to get off topic, but by when do we have to have our picks to you for the BC Contest and I forget the e-mail address. Can we just post them on here?

Anyway, I can't believe some of the morning lines. Are they serious that Mine That Bird is 12-1, same as Gio Ponti, Colonel John, Einstein, Richard's Kid & Quality Road? I'm not knocking him, but I think that he should've been higher than that. Guess it really doesn't matter since the betting public ultimately decides the horses odds. You can bet he'll be over 20-1 by the time the gates open for the Classic.

One race I'm extremely disappointed in would be the "dirt" Mile. It was shaping up to be a great race, but with horses like Regal Ransom, Quality Road & Girolamo headed towards the Classic and Crown of Thorns going in the Sprint (I think he would've had a better shot in here), it leaves us with the shortest M/L favorite at 6/5.

As far as the races themselves, some of my early longshot plays (5-1) or better I'll be playing Cannonball in the Turf Sprint, Life is Sweet in the Ladies Classic, Einstein in the Classic and the longest of all, Cost of Freedom in the Sprint. Yes I know Cost of Freedom is stretching it a little, but he didn't run all that bad in his last considering he was short on conditioning being only his 2nd start off nearly a year layoff. I think he's going to run huge on Saturday and at 30-1, why not take a shot?

re: Don't Read Too Much Into Works

tcc — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 03:37:11 GMT

Paula Higgins:

Trevor Denman sees no reason Zenyata cannot win.

re: Don't Read Too Much Into Works

Mike Relva — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 03:27:26 GMT

JASON:

What's your opinion regarding Zenyatta drawing the four post?

re: Don't Read Too Much Into Works

Shiznik — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 03:14:14 GMT

Lol! Mike Welch has one of the worst eyes for horse flesh of any of the so-called professionals on t.v. He has only been seriously judging works for a few years. He is far from great at judging works.

re: Don't Read Too Much Into Works

Matthew W — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 03:11:31 GMT

Wow, tough draws for Zensational, Goldikova and Lookin At Lucky--I think Zensational is a throw out from the rail and Goldikova is in trouble, to say the least, from the far outside--by the way, Zenyatta made up 4 1/2 lengths into that 23 2/5 third 1/4 of Ladys Secret--like a 22 3/5 or something--she has the biggest kick in the race, and she's bigger than every male horse in the race, so leave her off your spread at your own risk--also, upon further notice, Colonel John made up 1 1/2 lengths while running widest of all into a 23 4/5 fourth 1/4 of Goodwood (on the far turn)--and still hung in there despite (probably) needing the race--he is coming up to this way better than last year's hang job! There's speed in the Classic, I think they're all in trouble, Big Z is fresh and fit--note her ability to close into the slow fractions--something Life Is Sweet was not able to do--there isn't anyone who can kick with Zenyatta in Classic--Oh I'll try to beat her, I always try to beat her! With all three speed guys inside, the sprint plays to the closers! Gayego and Fleeting Spirit, with Dancing In Silks and Rosario as my longshot--he's a nice horse/he's a real nice jockey!

re: Don't Read Too Much Into Works

Kat — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 02:35:16 GMT

Vince - I'm with you on the older horse workouts. Particularly when you see Presious Passion needing the stick in the morning. . . You know what happens after high noon with him. . . .

re: Don't Read Too Much Into Works

Mike Relva — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 01:45:51 GMT

JASON:

Hope your are enjoying yourself in Calif. CJ for the win in Ladies Classic.

re: Don't Read Too Much Into Works

PMAC14 — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 00:52:57 GMT

Vince,

Go to calracing.com Register an account and you will be able to watch live. It cost nothing to register. Very nice site in my opinion.

re: Don't Read Too Much Into Works

The Rock — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 00:31:45 GMT

Jason,

I see Zensational got the rail. At least we'll be able to see him "Zip Quick" from the stalls. But with the speed directly to his outside....eekkkk...

re: Don't Read Too Much Into Works

dbtoo — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 00:29:06 GMT

Vince,

You'll be able to see the races live at calracing.com. You have to register but its free. I would register a couple of days ahead. Then on race day sign on and click on the Oak Tree icon and you're good to go for the entire day.

re: Don't Read Too Much Into Works

Paula Higgins — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 00:23:35 GMT

Dr. Tim G. my husband just went to an urgent care center for a UTI/Prostatitis and they took first rate care of him. He snowballed over the weekend and didn't think it was important to let me know he was having issues prior to that. Go figure. In any event, I am so glad there are urgent care centers available. You all are becoming the front lines of medicine. They also followed up with a phone call, which is time consuming to do. As a R.N., I was really impressed. I have used urgent care centers for several things with great results. Sorry for digressing Jason but I just had to say this to Dr. Tim.

I agree with Lil Darlin that Zenyatta has to be up close to the front or middle, from the get go, if she is to have any chance with this group. I am rooting for her but I know she has an uphill fight with the Euros, etc.

re: Don't Read Too Much Into Works

Vince — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 00:23:15 GMT

thank you cide notes. I will try it out on ladies' day on friday and see if it works. then get primed for the big day. thanks for your help.

re: Don't Read Too Much Into Works

draynay — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 00:08:47 GMT

matthew I am all in on music note. she will dominate.

re: Don't Read Too Much Into Works

Cide Notes — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 00:02:20 GMT

Vince,just trying to be helpful if you haven't tried this. The races will also be shown on espn360. If you have never tried this, you need an ESPN login. Then go to espn360 and try and watch anything. I had one ISP that wasn't compatible. When I switched and tried again, no problem. Have had to resort to this as some "smaller" races are on TV channels I dont get. Not as good as a nice tv screen with surround sound, but better then watching those taped replays.

re: Don't Read Too Much Into Works

james — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 23:38:36 GMT

Mike Welch and Andy Harrington have great work eyes, the rest rather clueless

re: Don't Read Too Much Into Works

Lil Darlin — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 23:32:47 GMT

I hate Daylight Savings. It's only 6:30 and already pitch black here in the northeast. I hope you enjoy that California sunshine, Jason!

I think they may try to keep Zenyatta a little closer than usual in the Classic. I don't believe she was dead last down the backstretch in her last start (?), and mid pack won't surprise me. Her trainer cannot possibly think she'll be able to run down horses like Quality Road, Gio Ponti and Rip van Winkle if she's running in last, unless the race falls apart in front of her, and there's not enough speed for that to happen.

I think Gio Ponti wins if he takes to the surface. If not, Einstein is already proven at this track and distance and runs well fresh, so he's my Plan B.

re: Don't Read Too Much Into Works

Vince — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 23:26:37 GMT

do people really pay attention to workouts for older, established horses? I mean, I can understand it a bit if it's two year olds, or a new surface like we have here, or if people just want to see top-class horses in the flesh. and it must be good fun. but do the times they clock have any relevance to the race itself? if you are trying to pick a winner, wouldn't your time be better spent delving through a formbook or watching videos of old races. these are genuine questions, not meant to be provocative. I have no idea about what actually happens: I assume they do six furlongs or so alone round a track and that is supposed to tell you how a horse will go over 10? anyway, answers on a postcard please.

well, now the draw has been made. any thoughts? is goldikova's draw a major handicap? one last point folks. I am stuck in germany, there is no racing here on tv. if you stuck an engine on em and put michael schumacher on top, it would be on 24 hours a day. is there any way I can see any of this live online? don't mind paying. I know the bc site gives you the race "as live" not long after but it is not the same. thanks for any info.

god. I am looking forward to this, as I do every year. forget the controversy about the surface, just enjoy it. tis but once a year.

re: Don't Read Too Much Into Works

Cide Notes — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 23:14:43 GMT

The trainers sound like any good coach of a sports team or the proud parent of a gifted child. Positive talk and positive energy work to a point after that, we are on our own to look at the stats. Numbers on paper or computer; we do not know if a horse is standing in their stall right now reasoning that no one but them will be in front at the end. I give up on analyzing; I just hope that the worst that happens is all jockeys and horses come back a little dirty and winded.

re: Don't Read Too Much Into Works

It aint easy being good! — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 22:59:28 GMT

Dray I have to give you props for sticking with our boy QR since the get go and I too believe in him and by boy Gayego who is on fire right now. For the classic toss the birds and zenyatta. I think Einstien and Gio pointe will be ready to roll and you have to throw at least one euro in the mix. I think the americans dominate the classic this year. Einstien is battle tested. SB is worn out and MTB isnt ready. Zenyatta is a great horse but at short odds and going against the best males in the country def. toss! If there was money for 4th I would put it on Zenyatta=CURLIN. PS I love curlin so dont bash me! lol!

re: Don't Read Too Much Into Works

Paula Higgins — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 22:45:22 GMT

Curlin, I agree with your comments above. As much as I truly hate to say it, I don't see Zenyatta winning the Classic. I read Summer Bird is not training well on this surface. Does anyone know if that is true???

re: Don't Read Too Much Into Works

johnson — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 22:27:11 GMT

Music Note's only prayer is if all the other jockeys fall off their mounts (heaven forbid that happens). I'm telling you right now you are more than foolish if you bet your weekend on this one. She's a one trick "dirt" horse.

Rally your Friday bets around Lillie Langtry in the Juv. Fillies Turf. That's a single worth playing.

Blind Luck will be another favorite going down in the Juv. Fillies. Longshots Negligee, Beautician, Amen Hallelujah, and Bickersons are musts in the exotics. One or more of them will be in the top 2-3.

Noble Court in the Turf Sprint is another longshot special. Use him or weep.