Asmussen: The More He Wins, The Less We Know

re: Asmussen: The More He Wins, The Less We Know

GunBow — Thu, 24 Dec 2009 10:19:21 GMT

Ranagulzion:

Wow, I knew Baffert was loaded but hadn't realized all those horses. you listed were Pletcher's.

re: Asmussen: The More He Wins, The Less We Know

Runnin Ron — Thu, 24 Dec 2009 02:04:20 GMT

Stardustyrose You know a trainer that gets 30%?

Are his day rates waived? Does he own a percentage? Otherwise, I want an owner dumb enough to fall for that.

re: Asmussen: The More He Wins, The Less We Know

Zookeeper — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 20:07:33 GMT

Greg J.

I'm so glad you mentioned Megahertz! What a little dynamo she was. I saw her race in person a few times and although she didn't always make it to the finish line in time she was always very exciting to watch. Memorable "Mighty little Filly" indeed!

re: Asmussen: The More He Wins, The Less We Know

Mike Relva — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 20:01:27 GMT

JUST THE FACTS

Regarding Barbaro and his brother,

Give me a break! Is that all you've got?

re: Asmussen: The More He Wins, The Less We Know

Greg J. — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 16:42:27 GMT

Stardust,

One I loved was the Mighty little Filly, "Megahertz", Also, I am surprised you don't have Spectacular Bid on your list, I will add him also, Have a Great Christmas!

re: Asmussen: The More He Wins, The Less We Know

SteveStan — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 16:39:41 GMT

The fact that I train race horses means I probably know a bit more than someone who doesn't, just exactly what my job entails.

I don't let my 'relationship' with an unknown commenter get in the way of facts.

If I did, reading your comments would make me turn it personal the way you do.

re: Asmussen: The More He Wins, The Less We Know

steve s — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 18:33:57 GMT

There may be freedom to talk but no chance to get a Casino license to make easy money

re: Asmussen: The More He Wins, The Less We Know

LAZMANNICK — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 18:12:33 GMT

Zenyatta's on the wrong list.....she should be with the boys.

re: Asmussen: The More He Wins, The Less We Know

Just the FACTS — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 14:47:23 GMT

"I think reading some of this stuff you people have had too many sugar plums spiked egg nog or something."

SteveStan 20 Dec 2009 7:57 PM

Well said. Hopefully there will be another Lentenor (LennyJackson) blog and half of the loonybins will go back over there and talk about the second coming of Bar-Bar-Oh. They have him winning the ARC and he's not even a winner yet.

re: Asmussen: The More He Wins, The Less We Know

Runnin Ron — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 08:35:38 GMT

Steve's not even training the owners. Jess Jackson calls the shots.

He's not the only one either.

Maybe the great sportsman Jackson should step up and back the Belmont Stakes. Better than asking the tracks to up their purse when he runs his filly?

re: Asmussen: The More He Wins, The Less We Know

Mike Relva — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 03:38:35 GMT

STEVESAN

Your comments directed at STARDUSTYROSE I have a question. Guess you know everything,right? Please!

re: Asmussen: The More He Wins, The Less We Know

LAZMANNICK — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 03:10:34 GMT

stardustyrose:

Nice touch.......my favorite all time is Northern Dancer.......I really love Zenyatta, but somehow have a feeling she will be included......Hope someone includes Awesome Again and Ghostzapper.....Thanks and LOL

re: Asmussen: The More He Wins, The Less We Know

Racingfan — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 02:17:58 GMT

Stardustyrose: NATIVE DANCER!

re: Asmussen: The More He Wins, The Less We Know

Ranagulzion — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 02:00:11 GMT

GUN BOW,

Great analysis of Looking At Lucky's speed figures and synthetic form vis a vis his Californian predecessors. You are really priming the Triple Crown debate here Pal. Anyway you'll have to factor in the Trainer's angle. Bob Baffert has to be regarded as the number one Kentucky Derby conditioner in recent times and he regards "Lucky" as a legitimate Derby prospect that will very likely improve his performance to match the competition. His record of preparing derby winners and runners-up gives his opinion a tremendous amount of weight, one has to admit. He is certainly going to have a strong hand in 2010, as will Todd Pletcher. The latter has Super Saver, Eskendereya, Interactif, and Rule that have advertised classic talent backed by outstanding pedigree and there could be more to come. I am very interested in observing how the high-powered stables deploy their respective charges in order to 'prep' and accumulate earnings to get into the starting gates on the first saturday in May 2010.

re: Asmussen: The More He Wins, The Less We Know

stardustyrose — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 01:58:33 GMT

SteveStan

I don't know any trainers that are good trainers. The only ones I know are ones that stand on the side of the track with a stop watch and by the way. I belive the purse should be turned around with the jockeys & trainers. The jockeys are the ones that are risking their lives in a big big way when they race. THEY should get 30% & the trainers 10% IMO................... :)

re: Asmussen: The More He Wins, The Less We Know

stardustyrose — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 01:55:22 GMT

OK you guys here is what I have so far.............

Curlin

Tiznow

Xtra Heat

With Anticipation

The Tinman

Better Talk Now

Evening Attire

Kona Gold

Buckpasser

I am going to need a lot more horses LOL. I am putting all 11 TC winners in and to make a really really good vid, it takes about 20 hours and about 75 pics...... Maybe it will be done by New Years.... Just keep giving me horses..... ;-)

God Bless You ALL!

re: Asmussen: The More He Wins, The Less We Know

Footlick — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 21:21:35 GMT

stardustyrose- Since you asked, my favorite Champion horse in the US is Buckpasser.

re: Asmussen: The More He Wins, The Less We Know

Mike Relva — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 21:19:57 GMT

STARDUSTYROSE

Hello! Wishing you Happy Holidays!

re: Asmussen: The More He Wins, The Less We Know

PeterEngland — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 17:22:47 GMT

Jason - Sounds like you have the basis of an in depth interview with Steve using a list of questions from the comments above! Now that would be a challenge for both of you! I look forward to reading it.

re: Asmussen: The More He Wins, The Less We Know

GunBow — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 09:30:31 GMT

Last night I suggested 1) Lookin At Lucky is likely to receive a lowly Beyer for his Hollywood Futurity win and 2) Tiz Chrome is going to receive a much higher Beyer.

Beyers:

Lookin At Lucky(H. Futurity)- 83

Tiz Chrome(Stuka)- 97

If Tiz Chrome can stretch out, and I really don't see a problem at least up to 9 furlongs, he just might end up being Baffert's fastest Derby prospect. Of course, he has a long way to go in the seasoning department to catch up with Lucky. Another positive about Tiz Chrome, we know he can run well on dirt, and at Chirchill Downs.

re: Asmussen: The More He Wins, The Less We Know

GunBow — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 09:25:36 GMT

As anticipated, Team Beyer did not look upon Lookin at Lucky's Hollywood Futurity fondly, awarding the performance a paltry 83. Last year, much was made of how low Pioneer of the Nile's winning H. Futurity was, and it was an 86.

As I explained in an earlier post, the Beyer Team had little room for maneuvering given the slow final time of 1:43 and 1. However, this final time was largely the result of a very slow first 6 furlongs(1:13) that left little chance for a fast final time and high Beyer.

I thought there was the possibility that Beyer Inc might do what they do with turf stakes occassionally, and give slightly less weight to the final time and credit Lookin At Lucky for a strong final 5/16ths in 30 and 1. Perhaps they did, but it just doesn't seem an 83 is an accurate reflection of a race that decided North America's champion 2 year old male.

Once again, we as fans and bettors are left with some major questions about California's top Kentucky Derby prospect. Exactly how fast is Lookin At Lucky? Are his mediocre Beyers a true measure of his ability? With such a discrepancy between figs and performance/accomplishment/class, which should we put more weight on? Are the low figs and small margins of victory just a product of synthetics and slow early paces, or is it an indictment of weak competition(even though Lucky has performed well in 4 straight grade 1s)? Can Lucky transfer his form to dirt? If so, will his Beyers be the same or will we see the same "mysterious bump" we saw with I Want Revenge, Papa Clem this year, and Gayego the year before?

We've asked these questions before. In 2008 it was about Colonel John, who visually had been impressive running 2nd in the Cash Call(Hollywood) Futurity and winning the Sham and gr.1 SA Derby, but who had earned Beyers only in the 85-95 range. Last year it was about Pioneer of the Nile, another Hollywood Futurity veteran(he won it), who later won the gr.2 Bob Lewis, gr.2 San Felipe, and gr.1 SA Derby but with equally mediocre Beyers in the low 90s.

Using Colonel John and Pioneer of the Nile as sources of comparison, one may have the initial tendency to answer most of the above questions about Lookin At Lucky in the negative and conclude that the Beyers should be given more weight than the accomplishments/class. As someone who uses Beyers, I must admit that as impressive as Lucky's accomplishments have been, his Beyers definitely give me pause, and he will almost undoubtedly have to improve if he is to be a factor in next year's Triple Crown. Howvever, hasn't this been true of almost any good 2 year old in history?

The positives are that Lookin At Lucky has won gr.1 races at 3 different tracks, including on the synthetic surface reputed to most resemble dirt(Hollywood), and is by a sire, Smart Strike, that has had plenty of success with dirt runners. Additionally, as mentioned, one must keep in mind that Lucky's moderate Beyers have been directly influenced by slow paces(which as a mid-pack runner he can't really control) and that he has a tendency to only do what is needed.

Finally, it wasn't as if Pioneer of the Nile and Colonel John were busts on dirt. Pioneer of the Nile did run 2nd in the Kentucky Derby, and would have won had a little gelded Birdie not freaked. Given that this blog will be focused on the Derby, we should definitely give credit to a horse that was the runner-up in a Derby. While his poor Preakness performance and subsequent early retirement did not provide us with a positive final memory, we should still acknowledge that Pioneer of the Nile was a 2-time gr.1 winner of over $1.6 million and the runner-up in America's most famous race. Not shabby at all!

We should also keep in mind that horses Pioneer of the Nile defeated in Cali's synthetic preps, like I Want Revenge and Papa Clem, went on to win races like the Gotham(113 Beyer), Wood(103 Beyer), and Arkansas Derby.

What about Colonel John? Well, after a 6th in the Kentucky Derby in which he convinced some, as new as synthetics are, that a horse cannot win the Derby having run exclusively on synthetics, didn't he win the gr.1 Travers at Saratoga, "the racetrack of champions"? While Colonel John might not have been a superstar, he was, like Pioneer, a dual-gr.1 winner and an earner of over $1.7 million.

And just as was true this year, in 2008 a horse that had been running on Santa Anita's synthetic track, Gayego, won the Arkansas Derby and additionally ran 2nd in the Godolphin Mile on dirt this year. The winner of this year's Godolphin Mile over Gayego was Two Step Salsa, a Cali synthetic horse that placed in the gr.2 Swaps(with Colonel John) and the Breeder's Cup Dirt Mile(although on synthetic). The horse that won that(08') Breeder's Cup Dirt Mile? Albertus Maximus, who would go on to win the gr.1 Donn Handicap at Gulfstream. And who beat Albertus in this year's Dubai World Cup on dirt? That would be Cali synth horse, Well Armed. Get the point? The fact is, Cali synthetic horses, including Pioneer of the Nile and Colonel John, have done quite well racing on dirt. Also keep in mind that the 2-4-5(Pioneer, Papa Clem, Chocolate Candy) finishers in this year's Derby prepped on Cali's synthetics at least through mid-March, and that the winner, Mine That Bird, was Canada's champion 2 year old while running on Woodbine's Polytrack. Also don't forget that both Street Sense and Hard Spun, the 1-2 finishers in the 2007 Kentucky Derby, both ran their final prep races on synthetics(Street Sense in the Blue Grass at Keeneland and Hard Spun in the Lane's End at Turfway).

While one should not entirely dismiss Lookin At Lucky's moderate Beyers as a result of a "West Coast bias" or the inability of Beyer Inc to measure synthetic performances, neither should one ignore him from consideration for the Derby because of them or because he has only run on synthetics. While Lucky's mediocre Beyers and inexperience over convential dirt should cause one to pause, his tremendous accomplishments(he's much further along at this stage than either Pioneer or Colonel John were) must be respected. Additionally, one must recognize that slow early paces have severely compromised Lucky's Beyers and that Beyer Inc are not nearly as accurate with their synth figs as they are with traditional dirt.

Finally as it concerns Beyers, remember that the scale used for synthetics more closely resembles the turf scale rather than the dirt scale; while elite dirt performances usually receive Beyers in the 113-120 scale, top synth Beyers, like turf Beyers, run about 5-8 points lower, from 106-112. Whereas a number of horses have earned Beyers over 120 on dirt this decade, with Ghostzapper's 128 tops, the highest recorded turf Beyer EVER is Miesque's 119 in the 88' BC Mile, with Daylami's 118 in the 99' BC Turf second. And although synthetic surfaces have now been around for over 3 years, the top synth Beyer to date is just a 112, for Zenyatta's BC Classic. Thus, it should be no surprise that if Lookin At Lucky merely reproduces his synth form, his dirt Beyers should jump up to the 88-97 range.

re: Asmussen: The More He Wins, The Less We Know

GunBow — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 03:43:22 GMT

Monster effort by Blind Luck in the Hollywood Starlet today. Not only did she demolish a very good Starlet field, winning by 7, her final time of 1:41 and 4 was 7/5ths (or about 7 lengths) faster than Lookin At Lucky's winning time in the Hollywood Futurity.

Of course, pace played a huge part in these different times, with the Futurity producing a 6 furlong split of 1:13 while Rose Catherine took the Starlet field through 6 furlongs in 1:10 and 4; thus, the 6 furlong split of the Starlet was 2 and 1/5th seconds faster than the Futurity. The pace in the Starlet slowed over the 4th quarter, which was run in 24 and 3 for a mile split of 1:35 and 2. In the Futurity, the 4th quarter was run in 24 seconds flat, but that still left the Futurity with a mile split of 1:37, about 8 lengths off the 1 mile split of the Starlet.

Lookin At Lucky finished the Futurity with a final sixteenth of 6 and 1. One would assume that with the much faster pace, the final sixteenth of the Starlet would have been much slower than the Futurity, as the 4th quarter was. However, and this is what makes Blind Luck's performance so special, Blind Luck ran her final sixteenth in 6 and 2, just one fifth off Lookin At Lucky even though the pace of the Futurity was far slower. As a result of Blind luck's strong final sixteenth, the final time of the Starlet was about 7 lengths faster than the Futurity.

Even if the Beyer team gives Lookin At Lucky's Futurity fig a little bump for strong closing fractions after a brutally slow early pace, it will likely be at least 7-10 points lower than Blind Luck's Starlet fig.

Perhaps being at Hollywood biases me, but I do believe Blind Luck's Starlet was the best performance by a 2 year old filly, and maybe any 2 year old, this year. With all respect to Hot Dixie Chick, BLind Luck turned in this performance around 2 turns and over a mile, and crushed a field stronger than anything Hot Dixie Chick defeated. One should also remember that Blind Luck earlier won the gr.1 Oak Leaf Stakes and ran a close 3rd in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies. Now, She Be Wild has the Eclipse locked up, but it doesn't mean that Blind Luck isn't the better horse.

re: Asmussen: The More He Wins, The Less We Know

Sherrie — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 03:39:01 GMT

When someone has as many horses as he does, all he has time to do is train the owners. His assistants train the horses. Some states mandate that a trainer has to spend so many days a week/month actually at a particular track, in order to be listed as trainer. All states need to make that rule. If you are not training them, then you shouldnt be taking the credit/padding the resume. It is not possible to train a horse that you never see. Guys like him are just playing a numbers game. If they break one down they just fill the stall with something else, who cares about the actual horse? Thats why you would drug them, just for the numbers.

re: Asmussen: The More He Wins, The Less We Know

SteveStan — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 00:57:32 GMT

Stardust

What trainers do you know?

Even further what grooms do you know?

Trainers do more than stand on the track with their stopwatch. Who do you think reads the condition book, schedules the works, hires the jockeys, orchestrates and organizes the whole operation? Grooms yes they're the unsung heroes but I guarantee you they don't operate on their own or make decisions on what is done with a particular horse.

Most grooms get a % when a horse wins especially a big purse.

These comments sure do go left of center thought we were talking about Steve.

I think reading some of this stuff you people have had too many sugar plums spiked egg nog or something.

re: Asmussen: The More He Wins, The Less We Know

Ranagulzion — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 00:37:48 GMT

GunBow,

Enjoyed your comments on the 2YOs Looking at Lucky and Tiz Chrome. The former deserves to be Champion this year for his consistentcy and propensity to win his races (sign of a very good horse). However the slow speed figures are a concern when thinking about next season's Triple Crown trail, not to mention the dirt question. My sense is that we may see a totally different 3YO picture from what this 2YO season has shown us so far. IMO D'Funnybone (throw out his Breeder's Cup run on the Pro-Ride) is the only one in this crop that has looked really special in more than one race so far. His pedigree on top suggests stamina limitations but his tail-female family could carry him a long way. Others that have impressed have only done so in one race so we'll have to wait and see. Based on your respected assessment, Tiz Chrome now joins my "to be followed list" which also includes Eskendereya, Super Saver, Buddy Saint, Backtalk, Bulls & Bears, American Lion, Interactif, Rule and Jackson Bend. The latter ran up a winning streak similar to his Floridian predecessor Big Drama which flattered to deceive, so one has to be cautious here seeing also that his pedigree, unlike Big Drama's, offers very little promise of Grade one quality performances (but his propensity to win even against adversity suggest that he can't be ignored). 2010 will be very interesting but it is too early to be head over heels on any one of these. If Looking at Lucky takes to the dirt you can count on Bob Baffert to have him tuned to the minute on Derby day. Pity that can be said of all the high profile trainers but we might see one of the likes of Asmussen or Pletcher break through with a Kentucky Derby winner next year.

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year.