Countdown to the Cup

Saturday Selections

emorgan — Fri, 01 Nov 2019 14:19:00 GMT

FILLY AND MARE SPRINT -

This race is full of talented fillies, but the obvious showdown is between Covfefe and Come Dancing. As brilliant as Covfefe is, I am again going to lean toward the older horse, and Come Dancing has been a powerhouse all year, with her only defeat coming at 1 1/16 miles to Midnight Bisou. But at 6 1/2 furlongs, seven furlongs, and one mile she has been unbeatable. A Breeders' Cup victory would be very special to trainer Carlos Martin, whose father, Jose Martin, was unable to win on two occasions with the great Groovy. This one would be for his father. Come Dancing is too short to bet to win or in an exacta with Covfefe, so an intriguing exacta would be to play her on top of Bellafina, who is four-for-four at Santa Anita and is dropping back to a sprint. Longshot Dawn the Destroyer has chased Come Dancing on a couple of occasions, and although she hasn't won in a while, she is always in the money and closing at the end and could also pick up a piece of it if you want to back her up in the exotics.

Winner - Come Dancing

TURF SPRINT -

This race is way too confusing to me, especially at the distance of five furlongs, which is even more confusing at Santa Anita, with the traditional 6 1/2 furlongs down the hill course no longer being used. I am going to go with the old pro, Pure Sensation, the 8-year-old running machine who would make quite a story with a victory here. He is still running like a sprightly 3-year-old, winning four of his last five starts, he is a five-furlong specialist, and the only time he's run at Santa Anita he was third, beaten one length, in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint at 12-1. I would also play him in the exactas with Eddie Haskell, Om, Leinster, Stormy Liberal, and Final Frontier. Have you heard anyone mention Stormy Liberal, who only has won the last two runnings? He may look to be off form, but I feel he is actually coming up to another big race. Don;t ignore him.

Winner - Pure Sensation

DIRT MILE -

I am not a fan of a two-turn mile because it goes against everything a true mile stands for - speed, stamina, and guts. This might as well be run a mile and 70 yards or 1 1/16 miles. And on top of that, it places too much importance on post position. With that said, the main focus obviously will be on Omaha Beach, my No. 1-ranked Kentucky Derby horse for many weeks. I would love to see him win, but this is not about favorites. I won't even wager on second choice Improbable, who trainer Bob Baffert loves in here. It makes this a rematch of the Arkansas Derby. The key to Improbable is how he behaves in the gate. Omaha Beach has no flaws and looks as if he can doing anything at any distance under any conditions. Another live horse is Mr. Money, who probably wasn't at his best being on the lead in the Pennsylvania Derby, in which he finished second to longshot Math Wizard. Also getting some buzz is Spun to Run, who is improving in leaps and bounds. As usual, I am going to look for a big price and an older horse to upset the 3-year-olds. That is the 6-year-old Giant Expectations, whose last two races with blinkers on were two of the best races he has he ever run even though he was beaten in photos, the last being to the brilliant Catalina Cruiser in the seven-furlong Pat O'Brien Stakes, in which he ran a negative-2 3/4 on Thoro-Graph, faster than any horse in the field has ever run, including Omaha Beach. Go back to Dec. 2017 in the San Antonio Stakes, and you will find Giant Expecations easily upsetting Accelerate, eventual winner of the Breeders' Cup Classic, and Collected, runner-up in the Breeders' Cup Classic and winner of the Pacific Classic, by nearly four lengths at 13-1. So you know what he is capable of. This will be my win bet and I will play him in the exactas with the big 3-year-olds. Diamond Oops is interesting coming off the grass and should be used in the exotics.The last time he went from grass to dirt he won the Smile Sprint Stakes. I am also intrigued with the Korean horse Blue Chipper, who has trained as well as anyone at Santa Anita. I might just put a little saver on him just in case.

Winner - Giant Expectations, Saver win bets on Diamond Oops and Blue Chipper.

FILLY AND MARE TURF -

Can anyone beat Sistercharlie? Will she be the same without her pacesetter Thais, who set the pace in Sistercharlie's last five starts and who was a vet scratch this week? Without Thais, it leaves front-running Rodeo Drive winner Mirth as the only speed. It also means Sistercharlie will be on her own against a talented group of Europeans and a pair of formidable Americans Vasilika and Mrs. Sippy. I can't separate the Euros and have no idea if Fleeting is going to get a clean trip for a change. If she does, she has a powerful closing kick and is the class of the Euros. Billesdon Brook, Castle Lady, Iridessa, Villa Marina, and the improving Fanny Logan are all dangerous invaders. I could either go with Mirth wiring this field or the Santa Anita phenom Vasilika, who is 11-for-12 over the track, mowing them all down. To me it's all a guess especially separating the Europeans, and I have no firm opinion. I would have to see the odds to look for the potential overlays. As of right now I might just go with Mirth and Vasilika and see what happen on the board. Or I can just pass this race and see if Sistercharlie can notch her seventh straight grade 1 victory.

Winner -- Fleeting

SPRINT -

Arguably the best race of them all with Mitole, Imperial Hint, Shancelot, and Catalina Cruiser. Good luck finding a longshot in this field. The only wager that makes any sense to me is playing all four in the exacta over the hard-knocking Whitmore, who could be flying at the end if these speed freaks somehow run each other into the ground. I will even put a win bet on Whitmore. Even horses like Firenze Fire and Hog Creek Hustle could make their presence felt late, and Mitole's trainer Steve Asmussen has an ample backup shot with Phoenix Stakes winner Engage, who is two-for-two since being turned over to him. But for now I will stick to my exacta play with Whitmore second and bet him to win and just sit back and enjoy the show. If I had a sentimental choice it would be the Little Rocket Imperial Hint who is due to win this race after finishing second and third.

Win bet -- Whitmore

MILE -

This race appears to be all about Got Stormy, Uni, and Circus Maximus, and it's going to take a huge effort to beat all of them. My three longshots are Trais Fluors, Lucullan, and Without Parole, with the last named being a pure guess based on last year's group 1-winning form in Europe and being transferred to Chad Brown after going off form this year. My real bomb is Trais Fluors, who has been a gem of consistency in France and was solid thirds in the last two runnings of the group 1 Prix d'Ispahan. What sticks out on his back form is a strong second to Thunder Snow in the group 1 Prix Jean Prat, beaten 1 1/4 lengths and then finishing 1 1/2 lengths behind him when third and fourth in the group 1 Prix Jacques le Marois. He is a stretch, but he will be a monster price. As for Lucullan, I love his form cycle. After being sidelined for 14 months he returned this summer with a pair of victories at Belmont and Saratoga before finishing a close third in the grade 1 Woodbine Mile, a half-length behind Got Stormy, but was disqualified for bearing out in the stretch under constant left-handed whipping. He bounced out of that race to win the nine-furlong Knickerbocker Stakes in a sprightly 1:46 4/5 and look s ready for his top effort. Looking back at his form from 2017, he finished second by a neck in the Hill Prince Stakes to Yoshida, with Bricks and Mortar third. So it is possible that you had the eventual winners of the BC Classic, Mile, and Turf finishing 1, 2, 3 two years earlier. Finally, Without Parole, a son of Frankel, was undefeated when he captured the group 1 St. James's Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot for John Gosden and Frankie Dettori. For some reason he went completely off form this year before being sent to Chad Brown. The fact that Brown is running him in here is enough to give him a long shot chance based on what he know he's capable of and his past reputation. My other Euro longshot would be Hey Gaman, who loves firm going, has sprint speed and can stretch it out, and has back form, finishing second by a neck in the French 2,000 Guineas.

Win bets -- Trais Fluors, Lucullan, Hey Gaman, and Without Parole and play all four in the exactas behind Got Stormy, Uni, and Circus Maximus.

DISTAFF -

Another tough favorite in Midnight Bisou, who may be the shortest-priced favorite in the Breeders' Cup. There isn't much that intrigues me here, with Paradise Woods and Serengeti Empress both dangerous pace horses. I am going to look for a potential huge overlay in 15-1 Wow Cat, who was second in last year's Distaff to Monomoy Girl and finishing ahead of Midnight Bisou. On her best day she can run with any of them, and if allowed to come from farther back and make one run she may be able to make up the three lengths she was beaten by Midnight Bisou in the recent Beldame Stakes. I am also going to place a wager on Chad Brown's other filly Dunbar Road, who loves deeper going, and was stuck on a dead rail when third in the Spinster against older horses. She has a mile and a quarter win in the Alabama under her belt and could run a big race with that foundation under her.

Win bets - Wow Cat and Dunbar Road and play them underneath Midnight Bisou as saver bets.

TURF -

If Bricks and Mortar isn't as effective at a mile and a half you have to go with Anthony Van Dyck or Old Persian. After that there is not a lot to choose from, as the other Americans all take turns beating each other. One, however, who intrigues me is the Santa Anita-based United, who is on the improve and could appreciate the stretch-out from a mile and a quarter. I don't love him, but he should be a big price for a house horse. If Bricks and Mortar does get the distance, it looks to be all about him and the two Europeans, so no use to get too fancy.

CLASSIC -

As reported the other day, I'm still high on Vino Rosso, as I have been for the past year and a half, and will stick with him, with saver win bets on my two longshot specials Seeking the Soul and Mongolian Groom. The logical horses who have to be played underneath are Higher Power, McKinzie, Code of Honor, and Yoshida. And even Elate fits with these males going a mile and a quarter. See my previous column on the Classic for my complete analysis and all my exotic bets.

Winner - Vino Rosso, Saver win bet -- Yoshida

Friday Selections: Always Looking For Longshots

Blood-Horse Staff — Thu, 31 Oct 2019 18:03:00 GMT

JUVENILE TURF SPRINT –

Although one might think this race is a vehicle for longshots, that doesn’t seem to be the case this year. Wesley Ward is holding a strong hand with the undefeated Futurity winner Four Wheel Drive and the filly Kimari, who has won stakes at Saratoga and Keeneland, on the front end and rallying from ninth, and was beaten a head in the 25-horse Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot. And on the European front, A’Ali looks strong having won three group 2 races, one of them at Royal Ascot, another at Deauville, and the most recent in the Flying Childers Stakes at Doncaster. Frankie Dettori is undefeated on him will no doubt keep his price down. It’s hard to imagine all three of these fast top-class horses getting beat. But keep an eye on firm course and five-furlong specialist Alligator Alley, from the barn of Joseph O’Brien. Although he finished sixth in the Flying Childers Stakes, he broke awkwardly, something you can’t afford to do going five furlongs. In the group 3 Molecomb Stakes at Goodwood he overcame a horrendous trip bottled up in traffic and still got up to finish second. He could have a say in the finish at 12-1, as could 15-1 Dream Shot, who was second, beaten a length, in the Flying Childers at 20-1 and is coming off a close second in a group 3 stakes on a synthetic surface. But this race appears to be all about the favorites.

JUVENILE TURF –

Aidan O’Brien holds a strong hand with Coventry Stakes winner and Dewhurst runner-up Arizona and the consistent and hard-knocking Fort Myers, but they drew posts 12 and 11, respectively, so that might make them a bit vulnerable, even though O’Brien has already won this race from an outside post. Chad Brown also should be formidable with Pilgrim Stakes winner Structor. And 4-1 Decorated Invader, was very impressive winning the grade 1 Summer Stakes at Woodbine and probably is the horse to beat. Looking for a price, an attractive proposition at 10-1 is Our Country. I am always impressed by a 2-year-old who can win on grass at Saratoga by 5 3/4 lengths. He followed that up by finishing fourth in the With Anticipation Stakes, but stumbled at the start and was rank early, yet still was beaten only 2 3/4 lengths. In his last start, he finished third in the Pilgrim Stakes after having to go seven-wide turning for home. If he can work out a good trip from the rail he could make his presence felt, especially going from Manny Franco to John Velazquez. I am also intrigued by Hit the Road, despite breaking from the 14 post. He is a stone closer with a devastating late kick and he should be able to ease back and make one run under new rider Flavien Prat, who wanted to ride him after seeing him blow by him on way to victory in the Zuma Beach Stakes. Another who should be flying late is former European Vitalogy under Javier Castellano, who came from the clouds to be beaten a neck in the Bourbon Stakes at Keeneland. This might be a good spot to box the three longshots with Structor and Decorated Invader in a five-horse trifecta box, or you can substitute Arizona for Structor. If I had to bet one or two horses for value I would go with Our Country and Hit the Road.

JUVENILE FILLIES –

I won’t even bother looking for a longshot here. Frizette winner Wicked Whisper and Alcibiades winner British Idiom both look strong, but I am taking a shot that Donna Veloce is a freak and a star in the making, despite having only one 6 1/2-furlong maiden race under her. But just watching that race made me believe I was looking at something special. I don’t like that she was made the morning line favorite, but we’ll see how they bet her. You never know how they will handle two turns for the first time, but I am just going by what I saw in her career debut, which was a .brilliant, classy filly far beyond her years. We all know these maiden winners can fool you, so we’ll what she delivers second time out.

JUVENILE FILLIES TURF –

This race is so wide-open it is downright confusing. To demonstrate just how confusing it is, the the three top choices, Albigna, Sweet Melania, and Daahyeh are 9-2 , 5-1 and 5-1, respectively. The Chad Brown-trained Miss Grillo winner Selflessly might be kind of high at 8-1even from post 13. All look strong and can easily be played in the exotics. The four to play around with at a price are Shadn, Fair Maiden, Crystalle, and Sharing. Each is worth a win bet. If I had to bet one with a bit more confidence it probably would be the Andrew Balding-trained Shadn, who has been a hard-luck filly all year, running half her races against males and beating them last out in the group Criterium de Maisons-Laffitte following a troubled third in the group 2 Mill Reef Stakes. Jamie Spencer gets the mount. Fair Maiden and Sharing will have to overcome posts 10 and 11, leaving P,G. Johnson winner and Miss Grillo runner-up Crystalle as another potential overlay.

JUVENILE –

This race took a major hit with the scratch of Maxfield. There isn’t much else you can do with it. You can’t play Dennis’ Moment with Eight Rings, so here is what I’m going to do. Bet Dennis’ Moment over Scabbard, Shoplifted, and Storm the Court in the exacta and Eight Rings over Scabbard, Shoplifted, and Storm the Court. Also Dennis’ Moment over Scabbard over Eight Rings, Storm the Court, Shoplifted, and Anneau d’Or in the trifectas, and just in case mystery horse Anneau d’Or handles the dirt as well as he does the grass, being by Medaglia d’Oro, out of a Tapit mare, I would go for a Dennis’Moment over Anneau d’Or over Scabbard, Eight Rings, Shoplifted, and Storm the Court trifecta, just taking a shot to try to win some money, which is going to be hard to do. A mention about Shoplifted, his maiden victory was one of the most impressive I saw at Saratoga this year. He closed well enough to finish second in the Hopeful, and then had a horrible trip in the American Pharoah, going six wide on both turns and making a dramatic move around the far turn from last into contention before tiring in the stretch. He should get a lot out of that race in his first two-turn effort. Come to think of it I think I'll also go with Dennis' Moment and Eight Rings over Shoplifted in the exactas.

Vino Rosso on Top, But Don't Overlook Two Longshots

Blood-Horse Staff — Wed, 30 Oct 2019 15:35:00 GMT

CLASSIC –

Regardless of how many horses I feel have a shot to win, I am going to stick with VINO ROSSO. It doesn’t make sense to turn back now after a year and a half of supporting this horse, first as my top ranked Kentucky Derby horse and now as my BC Classic horse. He looks like he finally is peaking, and at the right time, especially based on his works and overall demeanor and enthusiasm. His recent works over the Belmont training track were as impressive as I’ve seen. I had never seen him so strong and so sharp.

I lean toward the older horses, and he is one of the rare Eastern horses to ship to California and win a grade 1 stakes, and he did it by defeating the Santa Anita Handicap winner Gift Box, fresh off victories over McKinzie in the Big Cap and Battle of Midway in the San Antonio. So not only does he have a win over the track, he is bred to relish the mile and a quarter, he has the right running style for Santa Anita, and his fastest Thoro-Graph figure was in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita when he ran a –2 1/2, the fastest figure of his career. His Brisnet late-pace figures aren’t anything to rave about, but his strength is his tactical speed, as one can see by his ability to run strong middle-pace figures; that’s where he beats you.

McKinzie, Code of Honor, Yoshida, Elate, and Higher Power are pretty predictable, and all have a good shot, but to make money you are going to need a longshot to sneak in there. Two horses have who will be big odds have betting angles that are worth mentioning and should not be overlooked.

It is interesting to note that SEEKING THE SOUL and McKinzie share the highest Thoro-Graph figure in the field: a –3 1/2. One, however, is going to be the favorite and the other is going to be 30-1, trained by someone who has proven to be deadly in big races with 30-1 shots. Seeking the Soul also ran a –3 last fall, so he is capable of repeating that number. He’s been in California for a few months. His first race was a toss due to an electrolyte imbalance called the Thumps and I thought his fourth in the Awesome Again was a decent enough comeback race over a speed-favoring track that did not suit his style. And I can’t imagine he was 100 percent in that race. He will appreciate the larger field and contentious pace, and although he hasn’t won at a mile and a quarter, three of his four great-grandsires ran the three fastest Kentucky Derbys in history – Secretariat, Monarchos, and Northern Dancer.

It is obvious that by sending him to California so early and running him twice there, bypassing the Whitney and Woodward at Saratoga, they have been totally focused on winning the Classic for a long time.

His seven triple-digit Beyer speed figures are second only to McKinzie. He has the class, having won the grade 1 Clark Handicap and grade 2 Stephen Foster, and he ran a huge race in last year’s BC Dirt Mile, finishing second to the brilliant City of Light in 1:33 4/5, and rallied from 12th to finish second to City of Light in the grade 1 Pegasus World Cup at 34-1. In short, his best effort can definitely put him in the money, and even in the winner’s circle if we get a pace collapse. He doesn’t always give his best effort, but at the odds he’s going to be, it might be worth it to take a shot that he will on Saturday, enough at least to pick up a piece of it.

The other longshot, although not as long as Seeking the Soul, is MONGOLIAN GROOM, whose trainer’s honesty could move his odds up a few points. Enebish Ganbat was direct and to the point when he did what most trainers would never do – express displeasure in his horse’s workout, saying he worked too slow after his saddle slipped a little. I say that going a second or so slower than planned is not going to affect his performance. Most are going to deduce that his Awesome Again victory was a fluky theft, in which he went to the lead for the first time. But this horse has had a sneaky good year, finishing a solid third in the grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap at 53-1 and Pacific Classic at 18-1 and a fast-closing second to Catalina Cruiser in the San Diego Handicap at 12-1 before winning the Awesome Again at 25-1. He also was fourth to Vino Rosso in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita at 25-1. Traveling cross-country for the Woodward, he made a steady run on the far turn, racing three-to-four wide throughout the race, and then was squeezed out of contention in the stretch when Preservationist and Tom’s d’Etat put him in the proverbial vice nearing the eighth pole.

He is a natural mile and a quarter horse, with his two grandsires being major stamina influences Mineshaft and Dynaformer. He is inbred to two Triple Crown winners (Secretariat and Seattle Slew) as well as two horses who won two legs of the Triple Crown (Nashua and Northern Dancer). Two of his great-grandsires won the English Derby (Roberto) and Belmont Stakes and BC Classic (A.P. Indy). His third dam, Versailles Treaty, won the 10-furlong Alabama Stakes and finished second twice in the BC Distaff. Other major stamina influences in his female family are His Majesty, Hail to Reason, and Buckpasser.

To demonstrate why the Awesome Again might not be a fluke, he came home his final eighth in :12.32, McKinzie was 5 1/2 lengths ahead of third-place finisher Higher Power, and by the time Mongolian Groom reached the clubhouse turn on the gallop-out, he was some 15 lengths in front of McKinzie. He just wanted to keep going, getting stronger the farther he went. So don’t let that last workout scare you. He doesn’t need a lot of training after three grade 1 mile-and-a-quarter races, three mile-and-an-eighth races, and a mile-and-three-quarters grass race this year. He has shown improvement since adding blinkers and dramatic improvement when Ganbat removed his front bandages for the Awesome Again. He has put together two excellent form cycles on his Beyer figures. After going from a 79 to 86 to 93 to a 97 in the Big Cap, he began his current cycle – 89, 96, 98, 99, 100, and 110, with his last number the second fastest Beyer just below McKinzie’s 111 in the Whitney.

Often in mile-and-a-quarter races you like to see a grinder type who can consistently maintain a high cruising speed throughout the race. In their last six starts, Mongolian Groom, McKinzie, and Vino Rosso are the only three horses in the field who have not run a Brisnet middle pace figure under 90, meaning they are going strongest of all down the backstretch and around the far turn.

If you like McKinzie, Vino Rosso, Code of Honor, Yoshida, Higher Power, or Elate, you might want to consider playing whichever ones you like best, or all of them, with the two aforementioned longshots in the exactas and trifectas in order to try to land a big price. As a point of interest, the only three horses who have run as fast as a negative-3 Thoro-Graph figure in their career are McKinzie, Elate, and Seeking the Soul. Make of that what you wish.

The bottom line is that MCKINZIE is the fastest horse in the race, the most gifted, and the most consistent in his speed figures, and he should be effective at a mile and a quarter (see my column last week), regardless of all the skepticism. And you can’t ignore the racing gods angle with the Bob Baffert—Brad McKinzie connection that always gets Baffert choked up. Sometimes things are just meant to be, and this is the kind of race Baffert usually wins.

So, to summarize, Vino Rosso is my pick and will be my main win bet, and he will be included in all exotic bets. Seeking the Soul and Mongolian Groom are my two longshot picks to back up all exotics and even make a saver win bet on them just in case I actually know what I’m talking about.

I am also going to play Vino Rosso, Code of Honor, McKinzie, Higher Power, Yoshida, and Elate over Mongolian Groom and Seeking the Soul in the exactas, Playing any combination of the six shorter-priced horses alone is just not worth it if you’re looking to make big bucks. You need a bomb in there somewhere.

I am also intrigued by a five-horse trifecta box consisting of the horses with a race over the track — McKinzie, Vino Rosso, Mongolian Groom, Higher Power, and Seeking the Soul just to try for a killing by eliminating the horses who have never shipped to Santa Anita.

Finally, one other bet if you’re only lukewarm on the two longshots and have the money to burn is a trifecta key part-wheel of Vino Rosso, McKinzie, Higher Power, Code of Honor, and Yoshida over the same five horses over Seeking the Soul and Mongolian Groom.

I am not suggesting making all these bets, only the ones that seem the most appealing and that you can afford. A lot of it depends on how much you made or lost on the previous Breeders’ Cup races. You can stick with just the exactas or just the trifectas or even just the win bets. If you have the resources to bet all of them you are no doubt doing something right.

Just as a final note, I was all set to make a case for Owendale, who I really like, and even studied War of Will and Math Wizard carefully, with the latter improving rapidly and War of Will possibly returning to his best form with blinkers. But all three of them have Thoro-Graph numbers that strongly suggest they are just not fast enough at this time to compete with the older horses. None of the three have ever run a negative number, so they have a great deal of improving to do. Thoro-Graph figures obviously are not gospel, but in a race this seemingly wide open you have to utilize the handicapping tools you follow.

The rest of the Breeders’ Cup races to come.

Who is in Running for Horse of the Year?

emorgan — Mon, 28 Oct 2019 15:12:00 GMT

It's not typical to have five Breeders' Cup races that could decide Horse of the Year, but that looks to be the case this year. The five races are the Classic, Turf, Distaff, Sprint, and Dirt Mile.

Here is what is facing the horses who have a shot at landing racing's highest honor.

BRICKS AND MORTAR (Turf) - If he stretches out and wins the Breeders' Cup Turf in his first attempt at a mile and a half and concludes his year undefeated in six starts, five of them grade 1 stakes, it would take a lot to deprive him of Horse of the Year, like a Code of Honor victory, especially since he has reigned atop the NTRA weekly poll all year. That would give him victories at Santa Anita, Arlington Park, Belmont Park, Churchill Downs, Fair Grounds, and Gulfstream Park. But this year's BC Turf is not a particularly strong field, especially with no Magical, and that could hurt him if he doesn't at least win impressively. However, he still will be up against the English Derby winner, the grade 1 Dubai Sheema Classic and Northern Dancer winner, and runner-up in the Canadian International, plus your usual cast of U.S.-based grade 1 winners, none of which, like the Europeans, are major headliners.

CODE OF HONOR (Classic) - He looks to be the only horse to have a chance at Horse of the Year coming out of the Classic. McKinzie might get a look, but it's hard to imagine a horse who won three of seven starts this year being Horse of the Year, despite what would be a Breeders' Cup Classic-Whitney double. None of the other older horses in the Classic have even a remote shot. If Code of Honor should beat the older horses in the Classic, as well as several grade 1-winning 3-year-olds, including the Preakness winner, it would be a resume of wins in the Breeders' Cup Classic, Jockey Club Gold Cup, Travers Stakes, Dwyer Stakes, and Fountain of Youth Stakes, and a second in the Kentucky Derby and third in the Florida Derby. That is three grade 1 stakes at a mile and a quarter and two victories over older horses. The forgotten 3-year-old right now could be Maximum Security if he follows his Bold Ruler win with a victory in the Cigar Mile along with his wins in the Florida Derby and Haskell Invitational, and finishing first in the Kentucky Derby.

MIDNIGHT BISOU (Distaff) - You couldn't ignore her eight-for-eight record this year -- all stakes and traveling all around the country. A victory would give her stakes scores at Santa Anita, Belmont Park, Saratoga, Monmouth Park, Oaklawn Park, and Sam Houston - that's six tracks in five different states. And if Elate should run a big race in the Classic that would add to her credentials. What would be against her is the fact that she never faced males. Although past female Horses of the Year faced males, there is one exception, and that is Azeri, who did not run against the boys until two years after she was voted Horse of the Year, so there is precedent. The year Azeri was voted Horse of the Year she won eight of her nine starts, all against females. Then again, there was no competition for Horse of the Year that year, especially when megabomb Volponi destroyed his field in the Classic, including Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Haskell winner War Emblem. This year could be a lot different.

MITOLE (Sprint) - It probably would take a series of defeats by other contenders to give him a shot at the title. But if he should beat this star-studded field of brilliant sprinters and add that to his victories in the grade 1 Met Mile, Forego, Churchill Downs Stakes, and grade 3 Count Fleet Sprint Handicap--ending the year with six victories in seven starts--it would at least put him in the conversation. But sprinters are up against it when it comes to Horse of the Year, although he did win the most prestigious mile race in the country. It would be interesting to see if they attempt to solidify his position by going for the Cigar Mile. That would put him in rarified air, being the nation's best six-furlong horse, seven-furlong horse, and miler. He probably would be considered that with a BC Sprint victory, but winning the Met Mile and Cigar Mile would really boost his reputation.

OMAHA BEACH (Dirt Mile)- If he were to pull this off it would be one of the great comebacks in racing history. Here is the Kentucky Derby favorite sidelined six months, missing two return engagements, and winding up winning the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile and Santa Anita Sprint Championship to go along with his victories in the Arkansas Derby and Rebel Stakes. It probably still would take a win in the seven-furlong Malibu Stakes at the end of the year to put him in the picture. That race would also be used as a prep for the rich Pegasus World Cup that will come too late to do him any good in the voting. Even if he doesn't get Horse of the Year honors, this would have to go down as one of the most unusual and extraordinary campaigns we've ever seen and would stamp him as something special.

Other scenarios - What if SISTERCHARLIE defeats Fleeting from the Aidan O'Brien stable and Iridessa and Fanny Logan and other Euros, as well as several top-class Americans? She would only be four-for-four this year, which probably would not be enough to get her Horse of the Year. However, it would be her seventh consecutive grade 1 victory, which is pretty amazing, and she may pick up a vote or two, depending on what happens in the other races. On the other hand, a defeat could possibly cost her the Filly and Mare Turf title if GOT STORMY should beat the boys in the BC Mile. I'm not quite sure if UNI has done enough, but her last was sensational.

The most interesting scenario in terms of champion turf female is if FLEETING beats Sistercharlie in the Filly and Mare Turf. Although I would never vote for a European with only one start in this country, Fleeting has run an unlucky fourth in the Beverly D., which turned out to be one of her many horrible trips this year. After having to steady along the inside going into the first turn she dropped way too far back, some 20 lengths off the pace, and came running on strongly in the stretch. I have never seen a horse encounter more traffic problems in one year than this daughter of Zoffany. She could very easily have won the English Oaks, Irish Oaks, Prix de l'Opera, Ribblesdale Stakes, and certainly the British Champions Filly and Mare Stakes, in which she had the trip from hell. But she has a huge turn of foot and always puts in that big late run. She may be the best 2-for-12 horse I have ever seen.

Fleeting has a decent shot of beating Sistercharlie if she can finally get some good luck and not get trapped again in a traffic jam. I also believe that Sistercharlie's pacesetter Thais will benefit Fleeting as much as Sistercharlie. So, yes, Fleeting does have a shot at the Eclipse Award if all the pieces fall together for her. Sistercharlie will be tough as usual, but this filly could prove to be a value play.

Even if OMAHA BEACH doesn't get Horse of the Year, if all the heavy hitters in the Sprint get beat and Omaha Beach wins the Dirt Mile and Malibu, he could very well wind up the champion sprinter - an odd accomplishment for the Kentucky Derby favorite. He could also wind up champion 3-Year-Old Male if Code of Honor and Maximum Security both get beat in their respective races.

If Dennis' Moment, Eight Rings, and Maxfield all get beat, which is highly unlikely, do you give the championship to the winner, who would be a longshot with minimal previous credentials, or do you give it to stay-at-home TIZ THE LAW off his sensational Champagne victory and his undefeated record in two starts? Two-year-olds are being named champions now with fewer and fewer starts.

Maybe McKinzie can get the 10 Furlongs After All

Blood-Horse Staff — Wed, 23 Oct 2019 19:27:00 GMT

For a Bob Baffert-trained horse who will be the likely favorite for the Breeders’ Cup Classic, you would think that McKinzie would have a stronger fan base, especially considering Baffert won three consecutive Classics from 2014-16 and this year’s Breeders’ Cup is being run at his home track. But many of the experts still have reservations about McKinzie, based on his two defeats at a mile and a quarter and his recent upset at 1-5 in the Awesome Again Stakes, in which he was beaten by 25-1 shot Mongolian Groom, who had won only three of his 16 career starts.

One of those mile and a quarter defeats was a dismal performance in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic and the other was in this year’s Santa Anita Handicap when he was out-dueled by Gift Box.

I was one of those who had reservations until some of the puzzle pieces started to fit together to form a clearer picture. What began my search for clarity was McKinzie’s most recent work this week--seven furlongs in 1:24 2/5, which is an excellent time. But when it comes to the Breeders’ Cup, especially the Classic, I don’t put a lot of stock in workout times and fractions, as I do for the Kentucky Derby. These are all seasoned, classy grade 1 and grade 2 horses who are all coming into the race in top form, or they wouldn’t be here at all. We know pretty much what they are capable of in the morning.

So what was it about this work that caught my eye? Just watch the way he hugged the rail turning for home and galloping out. When a horse lays on that rail and cuts the corner that sharply, rather than fan wide in order to keep his momentum, it reveals to me an exceptional athlete with great balance who is loving the track and demonstrating his quickness and maneuverability, which he may have to use at any point in the race. I love it even more when they do it on both turns.

In this work, jockey Rafael Bejarano got down on him and started pushing nearing the wire, which is something I believe he needed. You always like to see a horse run through the wire, as they say, something he failed to do in the Awesome Again when he let Mongolian Groom draw clear of him in the stretch and then gallop out some 15 lengths ahead of him.

What I found most telling about the Awesome Again was Mike Smith, who has since been replaced by Joel Rosario, saying that he was blowing after the race. He added, “This should move him way up and will really get him where we want him. You can peak too soon with this horse. We’ll see the best of him in the Breeders’ Cup.” Those are confidence building words from someone like Smith.

And as far as him blowing after the race, he hadn’t run for two months, so it is possible he needed this race, as indicated by the way Mongolian Groom left him far behind on the gallop-out. Baffert wanted to see him on or right off the lead, but Smith obviously was not expecting Mongolian Groom, who was a hard-knocking stakes-placed horse in grade 1 company who had never been on the lead before, to just keep going and come home his final eighth in a sharp :12.32. Simply put, the winner ran a heckuva race alone on an uncontested lead. That will not happen in the Classic.

Now let’s look at the mile and a quarter. Obviously last year’s Classic was a toss, as we know that was not the real McKinzie. As for this year’s Big Cap, let’s break that race down. Earlier on the card they ran the Santa Anita Oaks and the Santa Anita Derby. Those races were run in fractions of :47 4/5 and 1:12 2/5 and :47 4/5 and 1:12 1/5, respectively. The Santa Anita Handicap was run in fractions of :49 1/5 and 1:13 3/5. During those fractions, McKinzie, who had broken on top and then taken back to third, actually dropped three lengths behind Gift Box, who was in a perfect stalking position.

Yes, McKinzie failed by a nose of beating Gift Box, but he had to make up those three lengths and closed his last two quarters in :24 1/5 and :24 2/5. Any horse who can come home that fast going a mile and a quarter, and over a dead racetrack, should not have any questions of distance hanging over his head.

Perhaps 10 furlongs is not his best distance, although it didn’t stop his sire from winning the Kentucky Derby and Travers Stakes. That doesn’t mean he can’t win at that distance when he came so close against a very talented horse, who had a much better trip than he did under the circumstances. And let’s not forget those closing fractions.

And let’s not forget his brilliant victory in the Whitney, in which he blazed the mile and an eighth in 1:47 flat, two-fifths off the track record. And let’s not forget his troubled second in the Met Mile, run in 1:32 3/5, in which many felt he was the best horse after encountering traffic problems on two occasions in the stretch, yet still was beaten only three-quarters of a length by the brilliant Mitole.

Rosario’s agent Ron Anderson is as good as they get and he didn’t hesitate for a second taking off Yoshida to ride McKinzie because of his home court advantage and Bob Baffert advantage. But most of all he believes the Santa Anita track, which has been favoring speed big-time, will carry him the final furlong. He says you have to be forwardly placed, and you can bet McKinzie will either be on the lead or very close to it.

I am not saying that McKinzie is going to win the Classic or that he will relish the distance. I am just saying that we might be a bit premature and off base in questioning his stamina. After breaking down the Big Cap and his defeat in the Awesome Again, and looking at his recent work, perhaps this colt is a worthy favorite after all.

Smith Aboard Yoshida: We've Been Here Before

Blood-Horse Staff — Tue, 22 Oct 2019 13:13:00 GMT

In the 2010 Breeders' Cup Classic, Mike Smith was devastated when he just got beat on Zenyatta, ending the great mare's 19-race unbeaten streak. Smith was in tears afterward, feeling he gave her a poor ride and let her down.

The following year, he was back in the Classic on a 14-1 pick-up mount named Drosselmeyer, a come-from-behind horse trained by Bill Mott and owned by WinStar Farm. Drosselmeyer, who had won only one graded stakes in his career (the Belmont), came storming down the stretch way out in the middle of the track to beat the Bob Baffert-trained Game On Dude.

Fast forward seven years and Mike Smith is riding in the Classic, feeling good about his chances aboard Baffert's highly regarded 7-2 shot McKinzie. Once again, however, Smith is devastated when McKinzie inexplicably stops to a walk, finishing 12th, beaten 31 lengths.

Now, the following year, the scene seems all too familiar, as Smith is back in the Classic on a double-digit odds pick-up mount named Yoshida, a come-from-behind horse, once again trained by Bill Mott and carrying the WinStar Farm colors, who, like Drosselmeyer, has one graded stakes win (on dirt) in his career. And how did he get this mount? Well, he got taken off McKinzie by Baffert following a defeat at 1-5 in the Awesome Again Stakes. That doesn't happen to Mike Smith and you can be sure that had to hurt.

As successful as Smith is in big-money races, imagine what he's like when he has extra motivation and is looking for revenge, retribution, payback--whatever you want to call it. It is certainly not a reach to imagine Smith and Yoshida barreling down the stretch, trying to run down McKinzie, just as Drosselmeyer did with the Baffert-trained Game On Dude.

So, will history repeat itself for Smith, as well as for Mott and WinStar Farm? Who said this Classic is boring?

Speaking of the Classic, Vino Rosso turned in one of the best works I've seen in a long time, with a monster finish, explosive acceleration, and a spectacular gallop-out. He seemingly is doing better now than he was before the JC Gold Cup.

I love Bill Mott's move of breezing Elate three furlongs to give her a bit more quickness and perhaps a bit more turn of foot, although she still is more of a one-paced horse who just keeps coming and building up momentum when she stretches out that far. The last thing she needs is a foundation work. Seeing her time of :34 3/5, out in :47 3/5, it was hard to believe she was going that fast. She looked like she was going in :38 3/5. The 10 furlongs will be right up her alley.

Owendale got a tremendous lung opener, working six furlongs in 1:13 3/5, going out well past the wire and well down the backstretch. I like that he was on the inside of his workmate, because you can't guarantee a clear trip outside of horses, where he runs his best races. He seemed quite comfortable on the inside, going much easier than his workmate.

Code of Honor breezed an easy half in :50 3/5, but this was all about the gallop-out, where he really laid it down and accelerated past the wire, and was really motoring heading into the clubhouse turn. You won't find a smoother-striding horse. He followed that up with a visually stunning five-furlong work in 1:00 1/5, in which he coasted by his workmate, who was under the whip, and with the rider motionless, bounded clear on his own before turning in a powerhouse of a gallop-out. This was a super work and he could not be training any better.

McKinzie's half-mile breeze in :49 2/5 was not your typical Baffert work. There was no attempt at speed, even in the gallop-out. So, all in all, it seemed more of an ordinary maintenance move. I would imagine he will rip one next time.

I'm still trying to figure out how Come Dancing can work six furlongs in 1:10 1/5 on the Belmont training track and do it under no pressure at all with her ears up. I would say she's ready for the Filly and Mare Sprint.

BREEDERS' CUP SPRINT RANKINGS

1—Mitole	Steve Asmussen	Combines blazing speed with class; versatile enough to win Met Mile. Deadly at six furlongs, seven furlongs, and a mile. Only defeat this year was a bad spot dropping back from mile to six furlongs and being stuck down on a deeper rail. Might be better at seven furlongs right now, but still has super record at six panels.
2—Imperial Hint	Luis Carvajal	His best effort could very easily win this race. Only thing is that his best efforts have come at Saratoga, and he has already been beaten twice in this race, although he's run well both times. He dusted Mitole in the A.G. Vanderbilt, but needs to do it away from Saratoga.
3—Catalina Cruiser	John Sadler	Gifted colt, but hasn't been six furlongs in 18 months. His two scores in the 1 1/16-mile San Diego Handicap would seem to indicate he is more geared toward the Dirt Mile, even though he has never been beaten sprinting. His most recent San Diego win was nothing to rave about, so with Omaha Beach going in the Dirt Mile he gets to use his on and off again speed against Mitole, Imperial Hint, and Shancelot. But this is his home field, and dropping back from 1 1/16 miles and seven furlongs, it could put him in a position to lay behind the speed and run them down late, as he did in the True North early in the year.
4—Shancelot	Jorge Navarro	Speed, speed, and more speed. His monstrous 121 Beyer speed figure in the Amsterdam, which he won by 12 1/2 lengths in record time was an other worldly performance. Coming back in four weeks and stretching out to seven furlongs, he couldn't hold a clear lead in the stretch. But his head defeat to Omaha Beach in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship was an excellent effort and gives him a race over the track.
5—Whitmore	Ron Moquett	Just when you thought this tough 6-year-old had seen his best days and was tailing off, he bounces back with a huge effort in the Phoenix Stakes, rallying from ninth to finish second, beaten a half-length. Remember, it was only last year that he finished a rallying second to Roy H in the BC Sprint, and this year's renewal should provide a blazing, contentious pace so he could pick up many of the pieces again.
6—Firenze Fire	Jason Servis	We saw what he is capable of in his last start when he nearly defeated Imperial Hint in the Vosburgh after a gut-wrenching stretch battle. He is more about class than speed, but can use that class to beat you at any distance. His most striking score this year came at six furlongs when he aired in the Runhappy Stakes in 1:08 flat. If it sets up for Whitmore, it sets up for him as well.
7—Engage	Steve Asmussen	He seems to have found new life in Asmussen's barn, winning his two starts, both stakes, including a big win in the recent Phoenix Stakes. He has always been a gem of consistency, but his speed figures do not compare with the leading contenders in here.
8—Hog Creek Hustle	Vickie Foley	Another whose speed figures are simply not fast enough, but if he gets a crushing pace, which is likely, his closing kick could be strong enough to pick up a piece of it at a monster price.
9—Diamond Oops	Patrick Biancone	He's been hopping back and forth from dirt to turf. Looked like a sure thing to go for the Sprint after a victory in the Smile Sprint Stakes and a second to Imperial Hint in the A.G.Vanderbilt, but he shifted course again when he finished an excellent second in the grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile last time out. So he actually has the credentials to run in the Sprint, Mile, or Dirt Mile and could run well in any of them. He will be a monster price.
10—Landeskog	Doug O'Neill	Lightly raced colt has good early lick and would have a say on the pace. Although trained by O'Neill, only one of his five career starts has been in California, and that was at Del Mar. He may have stamped his ticket to the Sprint with a sharp second-place finish in the Gallant Bob Stakes at Parx in 1:08 4/5 after setting a swift pace. He is short on experience and probably could use this time for growth rather than get thrown into the arena against the fastest horses in the country.
11—Lexitonian	Jack Sisterson	Totally inconsistent, but ran a game third in the Phoenix last out. Won photos in Chick Lang and Concern stakes in Maryland, but looks overmatched in here if he winds up running. Status still up in the air.

BREEDERS' CUP JUVENILE RANKINGS

1—Dennis' Moment	Dale Romans	I know Romans gets high on his horses, but I think I know him well enough to have an idea when he's blowing smoke and when his praise is warranted, and I have never seen him as high on a young horse as he is this colt. The only one to come close was Not This Time, who would have been a major star had he not retired early. I thought this colt's Iroquois victory was extremely impressive coming off that devastating maiden laugher, as he put his field away so easily and merely cruised the last part while under wraps. He has a Derby pedigree for sure and looks physically like a Derby horse. He's in tough against some heavy hitters, but his future is limitless.
2—Maxfield	Brendan Walsh	Talk about a Derby horse with a Derby pedigree, if this guy stays healthy he is going to be a major player on the first Saturday in May. And talk about a Derby move, that's what he demonstrated with his ninth to first explosion on the turn of the Breeders' Futurity. And to seal it, he bounded away from his competition, including the highly promising Gouverneur Morris, as if he were in a different league from them. Stamina and class top and bottom, just like Dennis' Moment, makes him a threat to land the Juvenile—Derby double.
3—Eight Rings	Bob Baffert	It shows you how special the top two are when a Baffert horse wins a two-turn grade 1 prep by six lengths after breaking his maiden by 6 1/4 lengths and is not ranked No. 1, even though they will be running over his home track. He is another with a Derby pedigree, he seemed more focused and mature with the addition of blinkers in the American Pharoah, but he has never faced horses of the quality of the top two. Look, the top three are virtually dead-even with so little separating them. If they can run 1,2,3 in any order we will have one heckuva Derby trail to look forward to next year--along with the addition of the undefeated Champagne winner Tiz the Law, another horse who will not have any distance questions.
4—Scabbard	Eddie Kenneally	It's hard to knock either of his seconds in the Saratoga Special, when he broke poorly and rallied late behind Green Light Go, and in the Iroquois Stakes, when he rallied strongly to finish more than five lengths ahead of the third horse. This looks to be one of those horses who is always going to run a big race and is always going to be coming fast in the stretch. Never turn your back on this guy or underestimate him. He is that good and he'll be running you down before know it. Not quite there with the top three, but he will be competitive.
5—American Theorum	George Papaprodromou	His second to Eight Rings in the American Pharoah was solid enough, even though he was soundly beaten. He has a bright future, but doesn't seem ready to be competitive against the top three, or even top four. But he is still a very nice horse.
6—Storm the Court	Peter Eurton	He was beaten more than eight lengths when third in the American Pharoah, and isn't fast enough to pull off a major upset but if he takes a big enough step forward off that race he could pick up a piece of it if one of the favorites doesn't run his race. I would like to see Flavien Prat take him back and make one run with him.
7—Shoplifted	Steve Asmussen	Not sure if he's running. I loved his maiden victory at Saratoga and his second in the Hopeful was promising enough, but distance is a question mark and he needs to get faster. We'll see if they decide to send him.
8—Wrecking Crew	Peter Miller	Second in the Del Mar Futurity gives him credentials, but that looks to be a very poor race, and the winner came back and ran terribly in the American Pharoah. He did run a pretty good second in the six-furlong Best Pal Stakes.

Updated Breeders' Cup Classic Rankings

emorgan — Fri, 18 Oct 2019 15:31:00 GMT

BREEDERS' CUP CLASSIC RANKINGS

1—Vino Rosso	Todd Pletcher	When in doubt go with the older horse. They are in most cases more mature mentally and physically and this tough, hard-knocking horse looks to be peaking. He's already shipped out there and won a grade 1 over the track and I loved his race in the JC Gold Cup. I stubbornly stuck with him as No. 1 for last year's Kentucky Derby and he deserves another shot at the top spot. He is versatile and seems able to adjust to any kind of pace. (see my column on him from last week for his back story).
2—Code of Honor	Shug McGaughey	He could very well be the most talented horse in the country at 1 1/4 miles. But it's hard to ignore the fact that in the history of the Breeders' Cup Eastern-based 3-year-olds shipping to the West Coast are 0-for-22 in the Classic, and the original plan appeared to be skipping the Breeders' Cup and waiting for races like the Westchester and Carter, but they changed their mind. He definitely is talented enough to win the Classic and is the horse to beat, but I will lean ever so slightly toward the older horse with a win over the track. It's splitting hairs separating the two, just as the Gold Cup was.
3—Higher Power	John Sadler	He has the fastest Beyer speed figure at 1 1/4 miles, and his Pacific Classic romp was legitimate, crushing eventual Awesome Again winner Mongolian Groom. Throw out his Awesome Again, as he lost all chance when he stumbled at the start and was last early. Sadler told jockey Flavien Prat before the race not to beat him up to win; that this was merely a prep, and he did well enough to finish third. I like that Prat is still extremely confident in the horse and expects a monster effort in the Classic. So do I.
4—McKinzie	Bob Baffert	Would it be a surprise if he won? Definitely not. But for the likely favorite, he should be overbet. Jockey switch was a surprise considering he looked to have every chance in the Awesome Again, but not only failed to catch Mongolian Groom, he let him pull away. But the winner did come home very fast. The question with McKinzie is whether he is best at 1 1/4 miles, having failed to get by Gift Box in the Big Cap. We saw what he is capable of in the Whitney and he may have been best in the Met Mile. Can he bounce back from a fairly sound defeat and beat these horses going a distance at which he has never won?
5—Elate	Bill Mott	It's pretty simple. She has lost five of her last seven starts against fillies at 1 1/8 miles and 1 1/16 miles, is 0-for-3 against Midnight Bisou this year, and has been caught in the final furlong in her past two starts. But she is 3-for-3 at 1 1/4 miles, where she can use her grinding style, so why not just let her do what she does best at her favorite distance? After all, in her three scores at 1 1/4 miles she has won by daylight each time. She may not be fast enough to beat these colts, but she will at least relish the distance, something a lot of the boys cannot claim. She needs some kind of advantage and this may be it.
6—Yoshida	Bill Mott	Reminds me a little of another WinStar horse named Drosselmeyer, who won the Classic at Churchill Downs in 2011. Same kind of steady closer who should handle the distance. He hasn't won at 1 1/4 miles but ran a very good race in last year's Classic, beaten only 1 3/4 lengths. But he often has trouble finishing off his races and is not making up as many lengths as it looks like he is visually. He usually makes his presence felt in the final furlong but hasn't won a race in 14 months. So he may be more of an exacta or trifecta type of horse, needing a pace meltdown to get home first. But he still is dangerous.
7—Mongolian Groom	Enebish Ganbat	There was nothing flukey about his wire-to-wire victory in the Awesome Again at 25-1, as he turned back 1-5 McKinzie and drew away to a 2 1/4-length win, coming home his final eighth in a solid :12 2/5. He has placed in big races before, but is only 3-for-16 in his career. He's never set the pace before, so it will be interesting to see if they try those same tactics again. It's a stretch to think he can pull it off again, but his 110 Beyer was huge and he could easily finish in the money at a fairly big price again.
8—Seeking the Soul	Dallas Stewart	Stewart is always dangerous in big races with a longshot. Last year, this horse's two best were at one mile, in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile and Ack Ack Stakes, but this year they seem to be determined to stretch him out. His best was a victory in the Stephen Foster at 1 1/8 miles, but his competition was far below what he will face in the Classic. Give them credit for going to California twice for big stakes. The Pacicifc Classic was a toss due to a medical problem and he could not close into the slow pace in the Awesome Again, finishing a well-beaten fourth. It may be a stretch seeing him winning, but he is a $3.3 million earner who can easily pick up a piece of it, like many of Stewart's bombs have done in big races.
9—Owendale	Brad Cox	He's a big strong horse with an excellent closing kick who has run some huge races this year, including three graded stakes victories at three different tracks, and you cannot ignore his fast-closing third in the Preakness. Spendthrift Farm is waiting for that big Into Mischief to come along and lift the classic-distance albatross off the head of their super stud, who has been an amazing sire. Into Mischief appears to need help from the dam in order to get a classic distance horse, and Owendale;s dam, by Bernardini, should give it to him with her strong pedigree. Yes, he was fifth in the Travers, but he was stuck down on the slower rail the entire race and was beaten only five lengths. Ignore this colt at your own risk.
10—Math Wizard	Saffie A. Joseph Jr.	With the pace of the Pennsylvania Derby being three seconds slower than the Cotillion, you would think he should have no shot to win coming from so far back and that Mr. Money and War of Will, on the lead, would not come back to him. But he managed to get up for a neck victory at 31-1 after knocking on the door most of the year. It is very difficult separating these three 3-year-olds and you can put them in any order you want. On paper, they don't match up with the favorites, but they are all capable of running a big race at any time.
11—War of Will	Mark Casse	I'm still not sure exactly what to make of him other than he's been training great since his wake-up race in the Pennsylvania Derby. He is a classic winner, having won the Preakness, and he certainly looks the part. I'm just not sure where he fits with these horses. We know he is talented, but the big key is whether he can relax early, something he's had problems with in the past. He needs to improve off his Pennsylvania Derby performance, but if he does relax and runs to his recent works, he could be sneaky in here. We know he has the class and the tactical speed to make his presence felt.
12—Draft Pick	Peter Eurton	Boy, is he going to be a forgotten horse after his dismal effort in the Awesome Again following a big effort in the Pacific Classic. So which Draft Pick should we expect? If the astute Eurton winds up running him and is willing to throw out his last, that is good enough for me to at least consider him for the exotics at a megabomb price. Horses have bad days and he never looked like he was handling that track stuck down on the inside. With a clear outside trip he has the credentials to turn the tables and surprise a lot of people.

It's Vino Rosso's Time

Blood-Horse Staff — Tue, 15 Oct 2019 13:36:00 GMT

Once upon a time there were two young horses frolicking about in the field at Glennwood Farm in Versailles, Ky. They were both the same color, both had excellent parentage, and both were headed to the Keeneland September yearling sale. One sold for $410,000 and the other for $500,000, giving John and Tanya Gunther, who operate Glennwood Farm, a pretty hefty payday.

Unlike most cases, both grew up to be stars. But that is where the similarities ended. One of the youngsters, the bigger and stronger and more imposing of the two, grew up and made history by becoming racing’s 13th Triple Crown winner. His name was Justify.

The other, named Vino Rosso, was the more classically bred of the two. His immediate relatives included sire Curlin, grandsire Street Cry, and great-grandsire Touch Gold. Although he was able to make a name for himself on the Kentucky Derby trail by winning the Wood Memorial, he spent most of the Triple Crown futilely chasing his childhood buddy. Even after Justify was yanked off the racetrack and retired following the Belmont Stakes, Vino Rosso still was not able to crack the big time, falling short in the Jim Dandy and Travers stakes.

With our top horses being retired so early, it was refreshing to see Vino Rosso return at 4 to try to make a name for himself. He did manage to win the listed Stymie Stakes before traveling cross country and knocking off the leading older horse in California, Gift Box, in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita.

In his most recent start, he showed his gameness and versatility by going to the lead early and then digging in and holding off Travers winner Code of Honor to win the prestigious Jockey Club Gold Cup, only to be disqualified. So, the biggest win of his career was snatched away from him.

Now he has another chance for redemption when he heads back to Santa Anita to try to win the granddaddy of them all, the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and with it a likely Eclipse Award as champion older horse.

While the colt has his fans, there will be one person you can bet will be a nervous wreck, with a faucet of tears just waiting to be turned on. It would not be the first time Tanya Gunther cried when it came to Vino Rosso. Tanya is the one who handles the matings for Glennwood Farm, and these are all her babies. But Vino Rosso has always had a special place in her heart and he knows how to get Tanya’s tears flowing.

And it has nothing to do with him as a racehorse. It is just who he is and he who has always been. And that is why Tanya wept openly when she had to bid him farewell at the yearling sale.

“I burst into tears when the hammer went down at Keeneland, shocking a few people, including myself since I thought I would hold it together a little better than that or at least wait until I got back to our consignment,” Tanya said. “I remember one guy who witnessed my small outburst exclaiming, ‘What's wrong?’ with a worried look. Maybe he thought the colt had stepped on my toe or something. But actually I had become so attached to the horse and was so proud of him that he sold well, but also sad to see him go. He was such a nice horse to be around; always relaxed as if nothing ever seemed to bother him.

“He liked to sleep a lot, a memory that stuck in my mind because my dad has always said he likes a horse that’s a good sleeper. He was easy to work with all the way through sales prep, in contrast to some colts who can become perhaps a bit too full of themselves as they become more fit and act like your arm might be their next savory meal. Then at the sale, he took it all in stride from the word go and was consistently good and well-behaved.

“After he sold and I went back to the consignment to say my goodbyes to him. Jim Martin (racing manger for Mike Repole, who purchased him with Vinnie Viola’s St. Elias Stable) came down to see him, and that is when I discovered that Repole and St Elias were partners on him. I remember thinking well that's some consolation, he will be in good hands, maybe go to Todd (Pletcher), and he'll get a great shot at making it as a racehorse. I thought, ‘Dreams start early, do I dare to hope?’

Well, it turned out that the dreams every breeder dreams manifested itself in the form of Justify and not Vino Rosso. But Vino Rosso’s racing days are not over and a Breeders’ Cup Classic victory would be an amazing coup for the Gunthers, having bred a Triple Crown winner and a Breeders’ Cup Classic winner from the same crop. So, there is a good chance that Tanya’s tears will make another appearance in a few weeks.

“Although Vino Rosso isn’t the only horse that has elicited outward emotion from me at sale time, fortunately I don’t burst into tears after every horse that we send through the public auction ring; that would just get messy and far too draining,” Tanya said. “Sometimes I have very mixed emotions about selling our babies. I put a great deal of thought and energy into them--from the mating idea and creation through raising and developing them as young horses. And while I want our horses to be appreciated by buyers, I also find it hard to part with them, especially if they have a certain character or quality that touches me somehow. I imagine it must be similar to how parents feel when they send their kids off to boarding school, except I know these kids won’t ever be coming home. Vino Rosso was such nice horse to be around, so genuine and possessing such a cool character and personality that it was hard to say goodbye.”

Tanya did pay a visit to Vino Rosso during Derby week and was thrilled to see he was still the same horse she had grown so fond of as a baby.

“I visited Vino in Todd’s barn at Churchill Downs before the Derby and it was really nice to see him again,” Tanya said. “He was still the kind, easy-going colt that I had grown attached to at our farm. He had grown into an impressive-looking young athlete, though it looked like there was a lot of developing still to do. Although I haven’t seen him in person this year, from pictures and videos that I have seen in the media, it appears as though he has really filled out and developed from 3 to 4 years of age.”

That is why it is so important to keep horses in training after their 3-year-old campaign. The vast majority of horses don’t mature mentally and physically until 4 or even 5, and we are depriving ourselves of so many additional stars and superstars. That is also why we should root for horses like Vino Rosso. Just remember, Seattle Slew and Affirmed solidified their greatness by sweeping the Triple Crown, but they accomplished little after that in their 3-year-old seasons. It was their 4-year-old campaigns that cemented their status as all-time greats. Vino Rosso would have been just another decent horse to enter stud at 3 had he been retired, but with his pedigree combined with a Breeders’ Cup Classic victory and an Eclipse Award (and with his Santa Anita Gold Cup and Jockey Club Gold Cup performances), he would retire a bona fide star and red-hot stallion commodity.

“I would be ecstatic to see Vino succeed in the Breeders’ Cup Classic this year, especially after the DQ in the Jockey Club Gold Cup,” Tanya said. “I felt Vino showed such class and determination in the stretch duel and that he fought hard to earn the victory, so it was extremely disappointing to see him get his nose in front at the wire only to have victory technically taken away. Both horses ran their hearts out and I felt that any bumps down the stretch were just part of a great stretch battle where neither horse was impeded so it seems a shame to have Vino’s credentials permanently reduced in the record books.

“During the 2018 Triple Crown, Vino raced in the shadow of Justify and so it was also very gratifying to witness Vino's victory in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita earlier this year and his gutsy performance in a race as prestigious as the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont. To me, Justify and Vino Rosso were like brothers competing with each other, as well as against all the other top horses of their year, and you really want them both to succeed.”

Well, Justify is gone, but Vino Rosso is still around looking for his pathway to glory. This may be his last shot. So if he does emerge victorious at Santa Anita and you happen to see a young woman bawling her eyes out, don’t feel badly for her. It most likely will be Tanya Gunther overcome with emotion, just as she was three years ago when she had to say goodbye to the horse who touched her heart.

How Good is Omaha Beach?

emorgan — Tue, 08 Oct 2019 21:33:00 GMT

The answer to this question is almost impossible to answer because you have a ceiling that is so high, it is difficult to assess without getting a bit too carried away.

With Omaha Beach, you have to start with the usual questions - How? What? Why? When? and Where?

The first question we've addressed, how good is he? What are his limits if he has any? Why has he become arguably the most intriguing horse in the country? When was the last time a horse won grade 1 stakes at six furlongs and 1 1/8 miles in the same year? And where will he run next?

The options for his next start are the Breeders' Cup Sprint, Dirt Mile, and Classic. That shows you his uncanny versatility, although you can probably eliminate the Classic.

As for winning grade 1 stakes at six furlongs and 1 1/8 miles or farther in the same year you have to go back 30 years to Dancing Spree winning the Suburban Handicap and BC Sprint in 1989.

This is a horse that had his 3-year-old campaign interrupted by a quarter crack, forcing him to miss an important allowance race, and then an entrapped epiglottis that forced him out of the Kentucky Derby, where he would have been the favorite. Then he missed return starts in the Shared Belief Stakes and the Ack Ack Stakes at a mile and was forced to go six furlongs in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship against track record-holder Shancelot, who had jaws dropping with his 12 1/2-length romp and spectacular 122 Equibase speed figure and record-breaking 121 Beyer speed figure, fastest ever by a 3-year-old sprinter, in the Amsterdam Stakes at Saratoga.

So what does Omaha Beach do? Coming off two-turn victories in the Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby and a six-month layoff, he tracks Shancelot through rapid fractions of :21 4/5 and :44 1/5 and gamely digs in on the rail and lunges at the wire to stick his nose in front, covering the six furlongs in 1:08 3/5 over a Santa Anita track that was deeper than in past years. About 30 yards past the wire, he was five lengths in front.

Remember, this also is a horse that broke his maiden in the slop by nine lengths, running seven furlongs in a blistering 1:21 flat in a performance so impressive it vaulted him up to No. 6 on Derby Dozen. He would eventually occupy the No. 1 spot for six straight weeks. To further demonstrate his versatility he was beaten in photos in two maiden races on the grass before trying the dirt. So he has run big on fast and sloppy dirt tracks, on grass, and at distances of six furlongs, seven furlongs, one mile, 1 1/16 miles and 1 1/8 miles.

He also demonstrated his recuperative powers by bouncing right back after his quarter crack and working a half in :47 3/5 and six furlongs in 1:10 3/5 before winning the Rebel Stakes defeating three-time grade 1 winner and champion Game Winner. It was quite a sight seeing this maiden sprint winner nearing the top of the stretch with jockey Mike Smith sitting motionless on him, while Joel Rosario, right behind on Game Winner, was pushing hard and failing to make up an inch of ground. In the stretch, Smith never touched him. When Game Winner came charging up alongside and looked like he was going to run by him, Smith hit Omaha Beach one time left-handed and the colt dug in and wouldn't let Game Winner get by, despite Smith losing hold of the reins and trying to grab onto anything he could, including the colt's mane. A few strides past the wire Omaha Beach was two lengths in front. That's when you knew you were looking at something special.

He then returned to Oaklawn for the Arkansas Derby where he defeated grade 1 winner Improbable, again digging in gamely, single-handedly knocking Bob Baffert's two big Kentucky Derby hopes down several places in the weekly polls. In that race he also beat third-place finisher and eventual Kentucky Derby winner (by DQ) Country House by nearly seven lengths, earning a sensational negative-2 Thoro-Graph figure. One can only imagine what he would have done in the Triple Crown had he been able to compete.

And if you're looking for an excellent example of a steadily improving horse, his Beyer Speed Figures have been 62, 78, 80, 83, 90, 96, 101, and 103.

Even earlier in his career, owner Rick Porter said his trainer Dick Mandella was "on cloud nine" over this horse," adding, "I've never seen Dick so high on one of my horses."

Mike Smith was so impressed by him he chose to ride him in the Kentucky Derby over his main client Boh Baffert's latest star Roadster, despite riding that colt to victory in the Santa Anita Derby.

In the March 19 Derby Dozen, I wrote: "I have been so impressed with everything about this colt-his class, his speed, his stride, his balance-that I had him ranked No. 6 off a maiden sprint score in the slop back on Feb. 5. When he came down with a quarter crack and missed a scheduled allowance race I thought that was the end of his Derby chances, but he bounced back from that has been working lights out since."

Come to think of it, everything he has done has been lights out. He just finds a way to win regardless of the distance, surface, and competition.

He has some heavy hitters to face next out, regardless where he runs, whether it be Imperial Hint and Shancelot in the Sprint or Mitole (in the Sprint or Dirt Mile) and Catalina Cruiser, who has lost only once in his career. It's a tall order, but if any horse can handle the challenge it is this colt, who has handled every challenge he has faced.

Right now I just want to see him get to the Pegasus World Cup in top shape, with a possible stopover at Aqueduct for the Cigar Mile. That would be one heckuva way to end a brief, but extraordinary career. Now, if Spendthrift Farm owner B. Wayne Hughes wants to keep him in training after the Pegasus, then we have a whole new chapter to write.

BC Classic in State of Disarray

Blood-Horse Staff — Tue, 01 Oct 2019 14:09:00 GMT

It would be harsh and simplistic to say the Breeders’ Cup Classic is a mess, but that pretty much describes it. Case in point, there is a fairly good possibility that the winners of the Jockey Club Gold Cup, Awesome Again, Travers, Woodward, Dubai World Cup, and Suburban Handicap will not run. You had a 1-5 shot get beat by a 25-1 shot in the Awesome Again. You had the Pacific Classic winner stumble at the start of the Awesome Again, costing him a chance to win or at least a closer finish. You had the winner of the Jockey Club Gold Cup disqualified. You had the top three betting choices finish out of the money in the Lukas Classic. And you had a 30-1 shot and former $15,000 claimer win the Pennylvania Derby, with the 6-5 favorite breaking poorly and finishing out of the money.

The big winner this past weekend might have been trainer Bill Mott, even though his Tacitus could finish no better than third in the JC Gold Cup. Mott was able to avoid all the chaos by deciding to train Yoshida up to the Classic, and he was given a huge incentive to run his mare Elate, who is undefeated at 1 1/4 miles, in the Classic and keep her away from her nemesis, Midnight Bisou, against whom she is 0-for-3.

So, here is a pathetic attempt to rank the Breeders’ Cup Classic contenders, taking into consideration the indefinite plans of several of them. Also, this is about who could or should run or not run as much as who will run. In other words, I am clueless and just throwing my two cents in.

BREEDERS' CUP CLASSIC RANKINGS

1—Vino Rosso	Todd Pletcher	Look, if I was stupid enough to rank him my No. 1 Kentucky Derby horse over Justify last year I might as well risk being stupid again by making him my No. 1 Classic horse. He is a grade 1 winner at 1 1/4 miles and over the Santa Anita track. I have no problem with the stewards' decision to DQ him in the Gold Cup. I feel it was the correct decision considering how close the finish was. He did bump him twice. But let’s not forget what a great race he ran, showing his versatility by going to the lead for the first time in his life and digging in gamely when challenged by Code of Honor, who got his head in front. We saw how he out-gamed Gift Box in the Santa Anita Gold Cup at a time when Gift Box was the dominant horse in California, having just out-dueled McKinzie in the Big Cap. Throw out his three defeats at Saratoga, a track he apparently dislikes, and you have a 4-year-old who is just now reaching his peak form.
2—Code of Honor	Shug McGaughey	He likely would be No. 1 if I knew he was running, but not only do I not know, I have a strong feeling he won’t, knowing his connections and their desire to freshen him and bring him back as a 4-year-old. It’s not easy for a 3-year-old to ship out to California, especially at the end of a fairly arduous campaign that saw him run three times at 1 1/4 miles, including a gut-wrencher against grade 1-winning older horses. Sure he can win the Classic. He may very well be the best distance horse in the country. In the Gold Cup he ran his last four quarters in :23 3/5, :23 4/5, :23 4/5, and :24 1/5. But his owner has already bypassed the Classic with Mineshaft when it was in California and his trainer is pretty conservative who I am sure wouldn’t relish traveling across the country at this time to run over a track that has been favoring speed so far. Also he is a lightly built colt, a very late foal, he matured late mentally and physically, and in my opinion would benefit from some time off, with the Classic a goal for next year. I could be wrong, so we’ll just have to wait to see what they decide. Until then, I will keep him here ready to jump into No. 1 or be removed from the list altogether.
3—McKinzie	Bob Baffert	I’m still trying to figure out if his defeat in the Awesome Again at 1-5 at his favorite distance was simply a case of theft, and that this was a good prep for the Classic, or if this is as good as he is right now, and he’s not going to improve stretching out to a mile and a quarter. Yes, Mongolian Groom stole the race, but McKinzie still seemed to have every chance to catch him. On the other hand, the winner came home his final eighth in :12 1/5 and McKinzie was 5 1/4 lengths ahead of third-place finisher Higher Power. Then again, we’re talking about a 1-5 shot having a 25-1 shot draw away from him in the stretch. But Mongolian Groom should not have been such long odds having placed in the Santa Anita Handicap, Pacific Classic, and San Diego Handicap. So, now you know why it is so difficult getting a handle on this race and this horse in particular.
4—Yoshida	Bill Mott	He is another horse who is difficult to figure out. He has run well at a mile and a quarter, but nothing earth-shattering, and although he closes well at a mile and an eighth he never seems to get there, always falling short, other than his Woodward victory in his dirt debut over a year ago. Even in his past two starts at 1 1/8 miles, he was third in the Woodward, making up only one length in the final furlong, and second in the Whitney, losing three-quarters of a length in the final furlong. But visually he always looks as if he is closing fast. If the track is playing fair at Santa Anita, he does have the class and closing kick to get it done against this field. But you just can’t get too confident in the stretch until he actually catches the horses in front of him.
5—Elate	Bill Mott	I am putting her here until I see how she does in the Spinster Stakes against Dunbar Road and the others and how serious her connections are about running in the Classic. Right now everything is pure speculation and based mainly on her three victories by daylight at a mile and a quarter – the Alabama and back-to-back scores in the Delaware Handicap. Also, she has been unable to beat Midnight Bisou at the shorter distances. If she wins the Spinster and they do decide to try the Classic, she probably would be one of the favorites. If they decide to stick with the fillies and go after Midnight Bisou one more time, then you still have to respect her and give her a chance based on her nose defeat in the Personal Ensign, a race in which she couldn’t hold a clear lead over Midnight Bisou. Strategy would play a big role if she goes for the Distaff.
6—Higher Power	John Sadler	You sure can’t hold his well-beaten third in the Awesome Again against him after he stumbled pretty badly at the start, losing valuable position and having to come from last over a speed-favoring track and with a theft up front. Also, he did beat Mongolian Groom by 5 1/2 lengths in the Pacific Classic and earned a 112 Equibase speed figure. Earlier this year he was strictly an allowance horse at Fair Grounds, but has really come into his own since moving to John Sadler’s barn, especially stretching out to a mile and a quarter. Sadler and owner Hronis Racing will be trying for back-to-back victories in the BC Classic. With the right stalking trip he would be dangerous.
7—Preservationist	Jimmy Jerkens	Disappointing effort in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and not certain to run in Classic. Knowing Jimmy Jerkens, decent chance he won’t, but putting him here anyway because there is no one else. I doubt Aidan O’Brien will pass up this year’s race, especially having tried so many times to win it. But have no idea who he would have in mind. As for Preservationist, he did not appear to have an excuse, but had no punch in the stretch, yet still was beaten only five lengths. I might be inclined to try, hoping the horse who won the Suburban and Woodward will show up. Small fields like that can be very tricky and sometimes horses don’t show their best. Lately he’s been alternating good and not so good races, so he’s due for a good one next time. Centennial Farms looking to land that big one. But his status is dubious at best at this time.
8—Mongolian Groom	Enebish Ganbat	A solid, hard-knocking horse who pretty much stole the Awesome Again, actually turning back McKinzie and pulling away from him in the stretch with a quick final eighth. Only problem with him is he was never nominated to the Breeders’ Cup and his owners don’t seem like they have any desire to shell out $200,000 to run. Don’t be surprised to see an owner step in and put up the money for a piece of the action. I doubt he could pull off another theft in the Classic, but at his home track he could certainly pick up a substantial check.
9—Seeking the Soul	Dallas Stewart	I’m sure trainer Dallas Stewart is not going to give up on him after a well-beaten fourth in the Awesome Again. We know he’s better than that, but hasn’t shown in California. Toss the Pacific Classic as he was suffering from an electrolytes imbalance known as the thumps. Perhaps he still wasn’t 100 percent, despite all the positive signs. He’s already out there and deserves another chance, so expect Stewart to keep him there. He is a grade 1 winner even if it was two years ago, but he did win the grade 2 Stephen Foster this year.
10—Tacitus	Bill Mott	I know this sounds like a bold statement, but I would run him in the Classic and take the blinkers off. He has been too keen with them on and has twice now been on the lead or close to it, and he showed earlier in his career that he is a come from behind horse. In both races with blinkers, he lacked his usual closing punch. Yes, he has had bad luck in many of his big races and trained with more focus with blinkers, but in the heat of battle he was getting too headstrong. He could react to the removal of the blinkers and show his old toughness and closing kick. Maybe he will even get a perfect trip this time, something he hasn’t gotten even in his Wood Memorial victory. I just think he deserves one more shot with the blinkers off, assuming he came out of the Gold Cup in great shape and trains well over the next couple of weeks. After all, he was still third, beaten four lengths.
11—Math Wizard	Saffie A. Joseph Jr.	The Pennsylvania Derby winner is the Cinderella story of the Classic. Yes, he was 31-1 at Parx when he mowed down Mr. Money and War of Will, but he is a rapidly improving horse who had some good stakes form and proved to be a huge overlay. He certainly is not a throw-out in this year’s Classic, but his connections have to hope the track is playing fair. A number of horses ranked ahead of him will likely not run, so he would move up a couple of spots. Give him credit for closing into a snail-like pace with a :12 2/5 final eighth. That makes him legitimate, and he should move forward off it.
12—Owendale	Brad Cox	He is another I’m just throwing in here without knowing what the plans for him are. He has had excellent form all year, finishing a fast-closing third in the Preakness and winning the Lexington Stakes and Ohio Derby, and last weekend’s Oklahoma Derby. His fifth-place finish in the Travers, beaten five lengths, was not a bad effort considering he was stuck down on the rail every inch of the way, which was not where you wanted to be. He made one move to pull within two lengths of the lead nearing the half-mile pole, and then made another move to pull right up with the leaders in midstretch, but could not sustain it and was just nipped for fourth right at the wire. He’s a big strapping colt, and if he runs in the Classic he could surprise a lot of people.

Another 3-year-old who might fit in the Classic is War of Will, who ran a game third in the Pennsylvania Derby, beaten only 1 1/4 lengths, in what could be the beginning of a return to the form that won him the Preakness. But once again I don’t know what his plans are.

I’m not sure who else to even consider for the Classic. I thought Draft Pick would run big in the Awesome Again, but he was a big disappointment. If you’re willing to throw that race out for whatever reason and look at his previous form, I imagine he would improve stretching back out to a mile and a quarter.

I have no idea what to make of the Lukas Classic. The winner, Mocito Rojo, has now won five in a row, all stakes, but four of them were at small tracks. Sent off at 8-1, he defeated 7-1 shot Silver Dust, a winner at Mountaineer Park last out, by a neck. The 2-1 favorite Quip tracked the pace but tired early.

Two big-name horses who would add glamour to the Classic are Maximum Security and Catholic Boy, but Maximum Security likely has run out of of time and Catholic Boy could switch back to the turf or even try the Dirt Mile, but he also has not had a prep, having last run on July 6, and it would be tough to make the Classic off a four-month layoff, although he really fits there on his best form. If they did decide to go in cold he would have to at least make the Top 10.

Pa. Derby: Good Result or Bad Result?

Blood-Horse Staff — Tue, 24 Sep 2019 15:44:00 GMT

Racing used to be so cut and dry. It was easy to determine whether a race was good or bad just by handicapping it, watching it, and assessing whether it was a classy performance against classy competition and just how good the winner was.

There usually weren’t any real human interest, Cinderella stories to cloud your vision. It was all about the horse, who very often was owned by the upper crust of society and trained by a veteran horseman and ridden by a veteran jockey who were destined for the Hall of Fame.

Well, there no longer is an upper crust of society, and trainers are getting younger and younger and you never know who is going to come from out of nowhere to shine on a particular day. You used to have names like Whitney, Vanderbilt, Widener, and Phipps. Now you have names like Saffie and Sophie winning million-dollar races on the same card.

So with the Breeders’ Cup getting closer and the final preps determining how the races are going to shape up, we have to try to remain objective. But there are those feel-good stories that make you forget about the Breeders’ Cup and concentrate only on the race in question.

That brings us to the Pennsylvania Derby, whose result obviously did not strike fear in the hearts of Bob Baffert, Shug McGaughey, John Sadler, Bill Mott, and Jimmy Jerkens, all of whom have leading contenders for the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Breaking the race down to bare facts it has to leave you pretty dubious about the result. First you have the favorite, Maximum Security, scratched early in the week due to colic. Then you have the 6-5 race-time favorite Improbable turning his head right at the break and getting left at the gate, which all but eliminated him. Then you have the 8-5 second choice, Mr. Money, setting a sloth-like pace and stalked by the 3-1 third choice, Preakness winner War of Will. By going the half in a lethargic :49 3/5, which was more than three full seconds slower than the :46 1/5 half set in the Cotillion Stakes the race before, there was no way both those horses in a six-horse field should have been beaten by 31-1 shot Math Wizard, who had been beaten almost 12 lengths by Mr. Money in his previous start and who was running last behind that ridiculously slow pace.

You would have thought after that half, followed by an equally slow three-quarters in 1:13 2/5, they were home free and would have drawn off in the stretch. But not only did they both fail to open up and get caught by a horse who had been claimed three races in a row, they even let Improbable, who no doubt would have been on the lead, back in the race with a good chance in the stretch.

So, it appears at first glance that the Pennsylvania Derby will have no impact on the Classic, if any of these horses even wind up running in the race.

But then again, let’s look at the race inside out. On one hand, Mr. Money and War of Will lost a race either one should have won. But maybe, just maybe, this was more a case of Math Wizard winning a race he should have lost. Maybe he deserves more credit than he got. He did, in fact, come home his last three-eighths in :36 2/5, which is more than legitimate, it is downright fast.

And then there is the feel-good story of trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. to cloud our vision even further. How could you not feel good for the young Barbados-born trainer after watching him get all choked up and nearly in tears after the race. Not only does he put in a claim for Math Wizard for $25,000, he watches him win by 18 1/4 lengths and then learns there are six claims in for the horse and he has to win a six-way shake. As Joseph said, “People can say we were lucky. I say we were blessed.”

That is the difference between racing today and yesterday. The opportunities are there now for the little-known guy or gal who is fortunate enough to catch lightning in a bottle. And because of that, the opportunities are also there for horses crawling out of the depths of obscurity and into the limelight.

How else can you explain Maximum Security and Math Wizard both coming out of the same $16,000 maiden claiming race and not only winning grade 1, million-dollar races, but Maximum Security finishing first in the Kentucky Derby?

Maximum Security, who won that maiden claiming race by 9 3/4 lengths, somehow was not claimed, but third-place finisher Math Wizard was claimed after finishing sixth for a $30,000 claiming tag and third (on a disqualification) for a $15,000 claiming tag, then claimed for $16,000 while getting beaten 10 3/4 lengths by Maximum Security. He then was claimed again in his next start for $16,000 while winning by 6 3/4 lengths, and finally claimed for $25,000 by Saffie Joseph Jr.

Ironically, along the way, both horses won races by more than 18 lengths – Maximum Security in an optional claiming starter allowance race against former claimers and Math Wizard in the race he was claimed by Joseph.

In the last two races he was claimed, Math Wizard was ridden by Jose Ortiz. In the Pennsylvania Derby he was a last-minute pick-up mount for Ortiz’ brother Irad, who was there to ride Serengeti Empress in the Cotillion Stakes.

To further demonstrate the bizarre nature of this year’s 3-year-old crop when it comes to jockeys, in the $16,000 claiming race, in which Maximum Security and Math Wizard finished first and third, the favorite in the race, Guerreron, who was sandwiched between them in second, was ridden by Luis Saez, who would become the regular rider of Maximum Security. Could he have ever envisioned watching the colt far ahead of him in that claiming race that he would one day ride him to victory in the Kentucky Derby, only to become the first jockey in the history of the race to be disqualified by the stewards?

As for Guerreron, he was eventually claimed twice, both for, guess what, $16,000. In his last race, for a $10,000 tag, he was ridden by Edgard Zayas, the jockey who decided at the last minute to stay in Florida instead of riding Math Wizard in the Pennsylvania Derby.

But no matter how you view the Pennsylvania Derby, it was a great underdog story for both horse and trainer and should give all small-time owners and trainers hope that one day they will be able to bask in the limelight on national TV and earn a trip to the Breeders’ Cup or the Kentucky Derby.

Joseph grew up on a farm in Barbados. His father’s horses were based there, so horses have been his whole life since he was 3 years old. “This is all I ever wanted to do in life,” he said. “I started training in Barbados when I was 18. I went to high school in Miami for about two years and my parents wanted me to go to college, but after one year at FIU (Florida International University) I realized that wasn’t for me and I returned to Barbados and started training.

“Racing in Barbados is more of a hobby than a business. You know you’re going to lose money. You train horses there just for the love of it. In 2011, I came to Florida to train, but I had no horses. Then I got two horses from Barbados that had been bought at the Ocala 2-year-old sale. One of them, Artefacto, won his first three starts, so he was my first winner here. Then we bought five more at the sale. Soon I had eight horses. The first year we won 10 races in five or six months. We didn’t have many clients, but it was a gradual progression. The last two years everything started taking off. I always believed if we were given the opportunity we could do it. You wonder, is it ever going to happen? There’s always doubt, but you just have to keep working hard.”

Then, on Jan. 31 of 2019, a horse came along who would change his life; the horse he had been dreaming of since he was a child.

“Math Wizard had won his previous race, he seemed like a horse who was getting better, and he was a May foal,” Joseph said. “His dam had won a grade 3 going a distance of ground, so I thought maybe he could be a nice starter allowance horse. You always have dreams they’re going develop into a stakes horse, but you have to keep your dreams bottled inside and be realistic. I put in the claim and after he won so impressively there was a six-way shake.

“I also claimed the horse that finished third in that race and eventually claimed the horse that finished second. Math Wizard just kept getting better and better. John (majority owner Fanelli) is not afraid to take chances and he wanted to run him in the Wood Memorial after he was second in an optional claimer at Gulfstream. It looked like a crazy decision, but when he finished fourth (at 64-1) I became a believer. That started it all.”

Then came another fourth in the Oaklawn Park Invitational, a second, beaten a half-length, in the Ohio Derby, and a third in the Indiana Derby. But that was followed by a dismal performance in the West Virginia Derby.

“That was one race too many,” Joseph said. “Those other races took their toll. In hindsight, I should have brought him home (to Gulfstream Park), but we kept him in the Midwest because all those races were in close proximity of each other. After the West Virginia Derby we got him back home and freshened him up. When he breezed a half 46 1/5 it was visually very eye catching, He laid 10 lengths off another horse and went by him effortlessly and came home in :22 4/5. Then when he worked five furlongs in 1:01 3/5 and galloped out in 1:13 for the six furlongs, 1:26 for the seven furlongs, and pulled up a mile in 1:40, John wanted to run him the Pennsylvania Derby. I said we can’t put him on a van on Monday until we see how he recovers from the work. If he didn’t recover well enough then we’d have to scratch him. I was against it, but John found out he could get a flight on Thursday. I said, ‘Alright, let’s enter and see how he is. If he gives us the right signs we’ll put him on the plane. If not, we won’t.’ I was looking for every reason to not go, but he never gave me any signs he shouldn’t go. He kept giving us every reason to go.

“With nothing confirmed, I told (regular rider) Edgard (Zayas), ‘I’m going to put you on and it’s you and your agent’s option whether you want to go or not. If you want to go it’s your horse to ride. If you decide not to there will be other riders there and we’ll get someone.’ His agent said they had business at Gulfstream that day, so they decided not to go. Edgard worked him all three times so it was hard on him.”

Meanwhile, Joseph’s father and his brother watched the race in Barbados. “They were jumping up and down and I was told it took my dad a couple of hours to recover,” Joseph said. “This is what I dream of. It’s all I ever wanted to do in life. I never doubted our ability. If we had the horses I felt we’re as capable as anyone. Without the horses I’m nothing. I’m so proud of the horse. He laid it on the line and he delivered. I figured if we finished third or fourth we’d be happy. It was a gutsy call to run him and it was rewarded.”

So Joseph has his first grade 1 victory at age 32. Now comes the question of whether to point for the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Joseph said they won’t make a decision for another two weeks, but it definitely is in play.

“We’ll give him an easy 10 days and then we’ll see,” he said. “We have nothing to lose. Two weeks ago if you told someone that Math Wizard was going to win the Pennsylvania Derby they would have laughed at you. John has the confidence to take these kinds of chances. Our job is to just take care of him and keep him happy. If he’s happy and ready to go we’ll give him a chance.”

Math Wizard should have no trouble with the mile and a quarter. His sire, Algorithms, is by Bernardini, out of a Cryptoclearance mare, and Algorithms’ second dam is by Belmont Stakes winner Avatar, a son of Graustark. Algorithms also is inbred to Fappiano. Math Wizard’s dam is by Deputy Minister, out of a daughter of Halo. So, with his running style, his turn of foot, and his ability to come home fast despite slow fractions, there is no reason why Math Wizard shouldn’t appreciate the extra eighth of a mile.

As Joseph said, there’s nothing to lose, and the colt has earned the chance, having already turned that $25,000 investment into earnings of over $1.4 million. And the Classic could use a good old fashioned Cinderella story.

So to answer the original question, the Pennsylvania Derby was a darn good result.

BC Matchups to Keep an Eye On

Blood-Horse Staff — Tue, 17 Sep 2019 17:16:00 GMT

There are two elements that create interest in the Breeders’ Cup and help promote the event on a national scale. One is to have a superstar like American Pharoah or Goldikova or Enable to look forward to, preferably in the Classic as a rousing final act. The other is to have an epic showdown between two popular superstars, such as Easy Goer vs. Sunday Silence or Alysheba vs. Ferdinand or California Chrome vs. Arrogate.

This year there doesn’t appear at this time to have either, at least not on the scale of those mentioned above.

We may not have that one big headliner, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t some fascinating showdowns to look forward to, although they may come in a different form this year. And remember, we still have a number of final races that will determine just how this year’s Breeders’ Cup stacks up.

For instance, right now, perhaps the most intriguing showdown will be a rematch between Midnight Bisou and Elate following their memorable duel in the Personal Ensign Stakes. But that picture is far from clear. Midnight Bisou still has to win the Beldame Stakes at Belmont Park and Elate still has to win the Spinster Stakes at Keeneland.

And we’re not done yet. What if the undefeated 3-year-old Guarana adds to her victories in the Acorn and Coaching Club American Oaks in next week’s Cotillion Stakes at Parx Racing? What if her stablemate, Mother Goose and Alabama winner Dunbar Road, continues her winning streak against Elate in the Spinster? Not only do you have four major stars, but one rivalry for the Older Filly and Mare title and one rare showdown for 3-Year-Old Filly honors between two stablemates. Of course, if Elate gets beat again, that takes away from her showdown with Midnight Bisou. Right now it looks to be the BC Distaff that has the most potential star appeal.

The turf horses also appear to have several appealing matchups, although not your usual kind. The BC Turf looks to be a showdown between America’s main defender Bricks and Mortar and trainer Aidan O’Brien, who can mix and match his stars any way he pleases. We will know more after the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.

But right now, the strongest matchup would be American superstar Bricks and Mortar, a winner of six straight, including four grade 1 stakes, vs. Magical, who picked the wrong year to come along, living in the shadow of the great Enable. Although she has defeated colts twice this year in the group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup and group 1 Irish Champion Stakes, she is best known for her three runner-up performances against Enable, giving her all she could handle in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf and this year’s Eclipse Stakes, and also falling 2 3/4 lengths short in this year’s Yorkshire Oaks. In all, she has won three group 1 stakes, three group 2 stakes, and one group 3 stakes.

A male-female showdown between her and Bricks and Mortar would be of great interest. But first she likely will take on Enable one last time in the Arc, a race Enable will be trying to win for an unprecedented third time, after which she will be retired. Americans will remember her for her gutsy three-quarters of a length victory over Magical in last year’s BC Turf after a prolonged stretch battle.

Now, it must be added that O’Brien also has another talented, but frustrating filly in Magic Wand, who is winless in her last 13 starts, but who has racked up seconds in seven stakes, including the group 1 Prix Vermeille and Pretty Polly Stakes and two strong runner-up finishes behind Bricks and Mortar in the Arlington Million and Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational. She also finished a close third in this year’s Man o’ War Stakes, so she is no stranger to America and would love an opportunity to try Bricks and Mortar again. Another daughter of Galileo, she is coming off a second to Magical in the Irish Champion Stakes.

O’Brien could run both fillies in the Turf or send Magic Wand to the BC Filly and Mare Turf, where she would face an equally daunting task of trying to knock off Chad Brown’s other turf star Sistercharlie, a virtual winning machine who has reeled off five consecutive grade 1 victories. Europeans will remember Sistercharlie for her second-place finish in the 2017 French Oaks (Prix de Diane) and victory in the group 3 Prix Penelope. In all, she has nine victories and three seconds in 13 lifetime starts. But she has been unbeatable since June of 2018.

Believe it or not, O’Brien is not through. He also has this year’s English Derby winner Anthony Van Dyck heading straight to the BC Turf following his strong third-place finish behind his two female stablemates in the Irish Champion Stakes. And if he decides to, O’Brien could also run arguably his best 3-year-old, Japan, after victories in the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot, Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp, and a gutsy score over leading older horse Crystal Ocean in the Juddmonte International at York. Yet another son of Galileo, Japan was also a fast-closing third in the English Derby, beaten only a half-length. But one would think that Japan will call it quits following the Arc and get ready for next year. However, you never know what O’Brien and the “lads” at Coolmore are going to do.

There is one caveat regarding the Turf. Bricks and Mortar has never been 1 1/2 miles, his big wins coming at 1 1/8 miles and 1 1/4 miles. So, we will have to wait to see what Chad Brown decides to do. Without Bricks and Mortar and with Brown’s Sword Dancer Stakes winner Annals of Time out with an injury, according to DRF, we really don’t seem to have a top-class mile-and-a-half horse who can compete with the O’Brien arsenal and the other top Europeans.

Even in last weekend’s grade 1 Northern Dancer Stakes at 1 1/2 miles at Woodbine, Godolphin’s Old Persian, winner of the group 1 Dubai Sheema Classic this year, had no trouble defeating two American and three Canadian opponents.

While on the subject of Breeders’ Cup turf races, if you are more interested in a good old fashioned U.S.A. matchup, forgetting about Ireland for now, how about an East vs. West showdown between Sistercharlie and Vasilika, who has won 15 of her past 18 starts, including eight graded stakes, with 10 of those victories coming at Santa Anita.

Another potential filly showdown could come in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint when the brilliant 3-year-old Covfefe, winner of the seven-furlong Test Stakes in 1:21 1/5, takes on the equally brilliant 5-year-old Come Dancing, winner of the seven-furlong Ballerina Stakes in 1:21 2/5.

And the male sprinters could put on a show if we get a rematch between Mitole and Imperial Hint. But it must be noted that Mitole could point for the BC Dirt Mile, even though he has never been two turns. Imperial Hint did beat him rather easily in the six-furlong A.G. Vanderbilt Stakes, in which he set a track record of 1:07 4/5 at Saratoga. Mitole, however, was dropping back from a mile after winning the Met Mile in a blazing 1:32 3/5 and is not really a six-furlong horse anymore. He was fast enough to win six-furlong races in 1:08 2/5, 1:08 4/5, and 1:09 1/5 twice, but that was earlier in his career and he has since become more of a seven-furlong to one mile horse, winning the Met Mile, the seven-furlong Forego Stakes in 1:20 4/5 and seven-furlong Churchill Downs Stakes in 1:21 1/5.

Imperial Hint on the other hand is a natural six-furlong horse, winning the Vanderbilt in record time and winning last year’s Vosburgh Stakes in 1:08 1/5, last year’s Vanderbilt in 1:08 4/5, and the Don Levine Memorial at Parx in 1:07 3/5. He also captured the 6 1/2-furlong True North Stakes in 1:15 flat.

The more natural rematch would be Imperial Hint vs. Roy H, winner of the past two BC Sprints who beat Imperial Hint by five lengths last year. But the 7-year-old gelding has not run since January and has not worked since March, so he looks to be out of commission. So it seems to be a question of whether the connections of Mitole want to tackle Imperial Hint again at six furlongs, along with another brilliant speedster in the 3-year-old Shancelot, wno ran a spectacular race to win the 6 1/2-furlong Amsterdam at Saratoga, or go two turns for the first time in the Dirt Mile against veteran milers.

Also lurking out there is the blazingly fast World of Trouble, but he also has been out for a long time, with no works since July, and although he has won several stakes on dirt, he appears to be more a grass sprinter, and his two most dominating wins on dirt have come on sloppy tracks. So he is a huge if right now.

One showdown that appeared to have great appeal was the American filly Got Stormy, who crushed the boys in the Fourstardave Stakes, taking on any one of the leading milers in Europe. But that appeal went up in smoke when Got Stormy was upset in the Woodbine Mile by a 44-1 shot after seemingly moving too soon with that long wide stretch at Woodbine that has swallowed up many a horse and rider who was not familiar with the course. We could get one, two, or three top-class milers from Europe who are vying for the top spot. They are Circus Maximus, Too Darn Hot, and Romanised, who are all very close in ability and accomplishment. But there are no Goldikovas, Wise Dans, or Tepins to put the race in the spotlight.

The 2-year-olds, both on dirt and grass, are still sorting themselves out, but if Green Light Go wins the Champagne Stakes impressively and Eight Rings runs off with the Frontrunner Stakes, it would make for a classic East-West-Midwest showdown among those two and the exciting Dennis’ Moment, who has dominated his opposition in Kentucky. Forget his 1 3/4-length margin in the Iroquois Stakes. He was geared down the final sixteenth, and you had to be impressed with the way he merely cruised to the lead nearing the top of the stretch. The runner-up, Scabbard not only proved he’s a very good horse in his own right, finishing 5 1/4 lengths ahead of the third horse in a quality field, he also boosted the reputation of Green Light Go, who beat him by nearly four lengths in the Saratoga Special.

If the runaway Hopeful winner Basin repeats in either the Champagne or Breeders’ Futurity it could add another element to the big showdown. And keep an eye on exciting maiden winners Three Technique, Gouverneur Morris, Express Train, and Tap it To Win. Any one of these could be a major star waiting to break out. Three Technique and Gouverneur Morris were particularly impressive, as if they could be something special.

On the filly front, if we can find a truly brilliant filly in the East, either out of the Frizette or Alcibiades Stakes, we could have an excellent matchup between that filly and the Bob Baffert-trained Bast, who romped by 8 3/4 lengths in the Del Mar Debutante in only her second career start and while still a maiden. Right now we do have the hard-knocking Perfect Alibi in the East, winner of the Spinaway and Adirondack Stakes at Saratoga. But her victories were more workmanlike, winning by 1 1/4 lengths and a half-length, respectively. We’ll see what she does when she stretches out in distance. Her main attribute at this point is that she wants to win and knows how to do it.

Finally we come to the Classic. At this writing there really is no single matchup that looks capable of capturing the public’s attention. Basically, they all have to ship from the East to face McKinzie and Higher Power, the two top representatives from California. There is no standout in the East, with older horses Preservationist, Yoshida, Catholic Boy, Vino Rosso, and Seeking the Soul all pretty close together in ability. The X factor is the globetrotting Thunder Snow, who is back in England after missing the Whitney and Woodward with a cough and fever.

The 3-year-olds could produce a great deal of excitement if Travers 1-2 finishers Code of Honor and Tacitus can run 1-2 again against older horses in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Those are your two big names now that Maximum Security has been derailed with a colon problem and forced to scratch from the Pennsylvania Derby. What a tough year for him and the Wests, who also had to say goodbye for the year to Game Winner. We also will find out just how good the streaking Mr. Money is in the Pennsylvania Derby and if Improbable is back to the form that made him the Kentucky Derby favorite. If Improbable wins easily at Parx and McKinzie wins the Awesome Again Stakes, then we could have a fascinating 3-year-old vs. 4-year-old showdown between Bob Baffert-trained horses.

So there are a number of interesting possibilities. But at this point we don’t even know if Code of Honor will point for the Classic, and there is still a lot of sorting out to do with the older horses.

Preservationist Leaps to No. 1

Blood-Horse Staff — Tue, 10 Sep 2019 17:20:00 GMT

In a year like this you have to be prepared for quite a bit of juggling when assessing and ranking this year’s group of Breeders’ Cup Classic hopefuls.

Every horse has positives and negatives and we will just have to see which one outweighs the other on all these horses come Breeders’ Cup week.

To me, Preservationist is the old school (where I graduated from) horse, trained by the old school horseman, who has run the best mile and a quarter race this year (see comments below).

He also has one of the best stories and there are few racing fans who would not feel good about Jimmy Jerkens and Centennial Farms walking off with the big prize.

In 2009, Jerkens, son of legendary trainer Allen Jerkens, had his stable pretty much stripped clean when his main client, Edward (Ned) Evans, took all his horses away, including the brilliant Quality Road, one of the early favorites for the Kentucky Derby. Another of his longtime clients also removed their horses from Jerkens’ barn, leaving his stable depleted.

But Jerkens bounced back the following year to win the Travers Stakes with Gainesway Farm’s Afleet Express. That gave the stable a huge lift. It was short-lived, however, as three lean years followed, during which he won a single listed stakes in 2011 and did not have a stakes winner in 2012 and 2013. Again, it was the Travers that vaulted the stable back to prominence when Jerkens’ 19-1 shot V.E. Day nosed out his big horse, Wicked Strong, owned by Centennial Farms.

It was Centennial Farms that supported Jerkens from the beginning, winning the inaugural running of the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile in 2007 with Corinthian. Although Jerkens was thrilled to finish one-two in the Travers--his two horses noses apart--one got the feeling there was a tinge of sadness he could not win it for Centennial Farms and the Little family.

He tried hard to get them that big win after scoring in the Wood Memorial with Wicked Strong, but it was a frustrating run, finishing fourth in the Kentucky Derby, fourth in the Belmont Stakes, second by a nose in the Travers, second in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, third in the Woodward Stakes, fourth in the Whitney, fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile, fourth in the Gulfstream Park Handicap, and fifth in the Met Mile.

Following his one-two finish in the Travers, Jerkens’ wife and assistant, Shirley, said, “I feel so amazing for Jimmy and for Allen. You can’t even dream up something like this. You don’t feel like this is ever going to happen. Jimmy is such a warrior. He fought hard through the low times. And now it’s a great time. You just have to keep going. That’s what he does.”

Allen, watching the Travers in Florida, said. “I’m really proud of him, but the bottom line is, you have to get the horses.”

Afleet Express and V.E. Day were far from super horses, but, like his father, Jimmy showed he knew how to make good horses and get them to win big races.

Since Wicked Strong, Jimmy has been trying to get that one big horse for Centennial Farms and win that one major race that would make him or her known on a national scale and be in line for an Eclipse Award, possibly even Horse of the Year. It has been 26 years since they won the Belmont Stakes with Colonial Affair and 27 years since they won an Eclipse Award with Rubiano.

Although they have always supported Jerkens, Centennial, run by the late Don Little and then his son, Don. Jr., actually has risen from deeper depths than their trainer.

Founded in 1982, the operation was closed down following the elder Little’s death in Feb. 2012 from injuries sustained when thrown from a horse going over a jump in the Masters Classic International Arena at the Winter Equestrian Festival in Wellington, Fla.

It was tough times, as Don Little Jr. tried to find enough financial support to save Centennial Farms. It was Wicked Strong who brought them back into the national spotlight with his Triple Crown run.

“I believe in fate,” said Little, who had battled through his own personal problems, going through rehab. “Nine months (before Wicked Strong’s Belmont Stakes) I didn’t know what I was going to do, to be honest. I knew what I wanted to do. But there were certain constraints and limits of what I could do. I didn’t want to continue without the proper financial support and the people behind it.”

In stepped longtime Centennial partner Peter Horvitz and his wife Peggy, who became co-owners. Both had been believers in Don Little’s vision.

“Don was a larger than life character,” Peter said in 2014. “He was so enthusiastic and loved it so much and that rubbed off on all of us. He is still such a large part of Centennial.”

Don Jr. added, “Nine months ago we all had a vision of building it back up. We had been talking about it and the many ways to do it. We sat down and the right structure just came together. My mother wanted to see where I was going to be a year later and how I was going to handle it. It wasn’t until last year (2013) that we felt we would be able to move forward. We met in early August (of that year) and needed to get horses quickly. We bought one yearling at the Saratoga sale and then we needed to buy horses at the Keeneland sale. So we put all this together in less than a month. I had people lined up, but it had to be done the right way.”

A big help were racing manager Dr. Steve Carr and Paula Parsons, who broke and trained the young horses.

Horvitz recalled the day he and Peggy had breakfast with Don Little Sr. in Florida. “Things weren’t going that well at the time and the horses weren’t running well,” he said. “We talked about what we wanted to do to get Centennial going again. The next day he died in a riding accident. Don Jr. had just gotten out of rehab in December and we wanted to rethink the company. Centennial had lost 80% of its business in two years through the death of Don Sr. and another major partner, Jud Stryker.”

A month after Don Sr. died, Don Jr. was home alone on a Saturday on a tractor cutting up fields when he got a phone message from someone from Maryland who said he was interested in being a partner in Centennial and asked what was available. Don was struggling to get the partnership finished. Before they had restructured, they had no line of credit. Don and the potential investor talked for a while and he called back the next day and said he would take the rest of it. Centennial was back in business. Before they knew it, here came Wicked Strong.

And now they have Preservationist, who with his stunning victory in the Suburban Handicap in a sharp 1:59 4/5 and gutsy score in the Woodward is now one of the leading contenders for the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

If any owner-trainer team deserves to win the Classic it is Jerkens and Centennial Farms.

“I have always believed in Jimmy,” Don Jr. said several years ago. “I said we’ll be making a foolish mistake if we do anything with the trainer situation. You’re not going to find a better horseman. After what I went through, I had to build trust back up with the partners. One thing I learned is not to hide it. Be open about it and discuss it. Transparency is always a good thing.”

Horvitz added at the time, “I give Don Jr. a tremendous amount of credit. For all he’s been through the last two years to end up where we are now is remarkable. I remember when Corinthian won the Breeders’ Cup Mile. Don Sr. was alive then and it was one of the greatest days for Centennial. At the Wood it was the same feeling. We missed Don being there, but he would have been so happy and so proud. Don Jr. has learned a lot through this experience. And we couldn’t be happier for Jimmy. He’s been through a lot and has worked so hard for this. Nobody is more deserving.”

Don Jr. has always been open about his problem and takes great pride in what he has accomplished to rid himself of his demons. “It’s a great feeling, it really is,” he said. “I can’t explain it. It’s kind of nice to give yourself a pat on the back every now and then. It was truly a humbling experience, all of it.”

To continue the comeback stories of Jimmy Jerkens, Don Little Jr., and Centennial Farms, last summer, Jerkens suffered a heart attack and had to have stents inserted into two blocked arteries.

Now here he is headed for the Breeders’ Cup Classic, if Preservationist’s connections wish to pursue that path, with a horse who, like his connections, has made his share of comebacks.

In 2014, while Wicked Strong was still trying to land that big one to follow up on his Wood Memorial victory, Centennial was purchasing a yearling colt by Arch, out of the Dixieland Band mare Flying Dixie for $485,000 at the Keeneland September sale.

Named Preservationist, nagging injuries prevented him from making his first start until June of his 3-year-old campaign, in which he finished second. He would not race again for 18 months. After making three starts (two wins and a third), he was sidelined for 11 months.

He returned in January 2019 to finish third and first in allowance company. After being out for 3 1/2 months he emerged a new horse, crushing the favorite Catholic Boy by 4 1/2 lengths in the Suburban Handicap in his first ever stakes race as a 6-year-old. A poor ride in the Whitney, compounded by his getting washed out before the race, resulted in a fourth-place finish.

But he bounced back in the Woodward, and this time, under an excellent ride by Junior Alvarado, he waited patiently along the rail, was blocked by a wall of horses turning for home, had his main escape route close up on him, and finally moved out and bulled his way through a narrow opening, outgaming Bal Harbour and Yoshida to win by a half-length in a swift 1:48 flat.

So, by running the third fastest Suburban in the last 25 years it was run at 1 1/4 miles and the third fastest Woodward since the race was moved to Saratoga in 2006, Preservationist looks like the most solid Classic contender, especially going 1 1/4 miles. And despite being 6, he has run only 10 times and is just now turning into a top-quality stakes horse.

We’ll see if his connections run him back in four weeks in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and if they are considering sending him cross-country for the Breeders’ Cup Classic or wait for the rich Pegasus World Cup.

Whatever they decide, it’s great to see Preservationist’s career taking off at this age. It couldn’t happen to more deserving people.

BREEDERS' CUP CLASSIC RANKINGS

1—Preservationist	Jimmy Jerkens	A natural mile and a quarter horse, he has turned in the fastest and classiest 10-furlong race of the year. And he’s still developing into a top-class horse at age 6.
2—McKinzie	Bob Baffert	The logical top-ranked horse based on raw talent and the Breeders’ Cup being held at his home track. The only question is whether he is at his best at 1 1/4 miles.
3—Code of Honor	Shug McGaughey	Impressive Travers victory and vast improvement over the past few months make him the most formidable 3-year-old at this point. But will he run? Remember owner’s big horse Mineshaft? JC Gold Cup and Pegasus could be an option.
4—Yoshida	Bill Mott	He seems to be more effective at 1 1/4 miles after coming up a bit short in the Whitney and Woodward. Came from 12th to be beaten 1 3/4 lengths in last year’s Classic. Needs a perfectly timed ride.
5—Thunder Snow	Saeed bin Suroor	Would be higher if he hadn’t scratched out of the Whitney with a cough and fever. He didn’t stick around for the Woodward and hasn’t worked so obviously he has returned home. As good as any of them, he is the consummate globe trotter.
6—Higher Power	John Sadler	Turned in a pair of solid half-mile works since his stunning Pacific Classic win. Will likely get more respect in California than he has nationwide. Could be a major force, but will be facing much tougher competition.
7—Catholic Boy	Jonathan Thomas	Needs to get back in action to show where he’s at. The fact he is pointing for the one-mile Kelso indicates they are not sure yet if he is Classic or Dirt Mile bound. It would seem he is more suited to the Classic; he just needs to show signs he can duplicate his Travers score.
8—Vino Rosso	Todd Pletcher	Another who is being overlooked, but like Preservationist is probably better suited to a mile and a quarter. Jockey Club Gold Cup will tell how serious a contender he is.
9—Maximum Security	Jason Servis	Should have his hands full in the Pennsylvania Derby. With his style of running he will have to withstand some serious pace pressure in the Classic, and the question is will he be up to it going a mile and a quarter.
10—Tacitus	Bill Mott	I still have faith in this colt’s talent and his ability to win any race on any given day with all the pieces coming together. Coming off four races, including three second-place finishes, in which he was not given the chance to run his best race. One day this sleeping giant will get the perfect trip, and when he does….
11—Seeking the Soul	Dallas Stewart	Throwing out the Pacific Classic debacle. It was Del Mar and he has proven his class many times. I like the fact that he bounced out of that race with a sharp six-furlong work in 1:12 2/5 at Churchill Downs. Santa Anita still not preferable, but looking for big improvement.
12—Draft Pick	Peter Eurton	Never been worse than fourth in 12 career starts, and Stretched out from 1 1/16 miles to 1 1/4 miles to run solid second in the Pacific Classic. Certainly bred for Stamina, so he should only improve off that effort.
13—Mr. Money	Bret Calhoun	We really have no idea how good this horse is right now, coming off a four-race winning streak, all grade 3 stakes, and winning those races by an average margin of five lengths. Moves up in class in Pennsylvania Derby and that will determine just where he stands.
14—Spinoff	Todd Pletcher	This is my sleeper in the Pennsylvania Derby. His last race, an allowance test vs. older horses with blinkers added, was a real eye opener. I have always had him highly ranked. Only times he’s been out of the money have been on grass, slop, and 1 1/2 miles, and even though not a 12-furlong horse, was beaten only three lengths. Big upset chance at Parx.
15—Gift Box	John Sadler	It’s been three months since the Stephen Foster and still no works. Last report was he is pointing for the Awesome Again, but will give it one more week before removing him from the contenders.

Other horses who should be mentioned are Woodward runner-up Bal Harbour, a hard-knocking, consistent horse who looks to be effective at distances up to 1 1/8 miles. Not so sure, with his pedigree, he can get that extra eighth in top company; War of Will, who has had an up and down campaign, but is capable of big things on his best day, as he showed in the Preakness, his run of victories at Fair Grounds, and even in his performance in the Kentucky Derby; Mongolian Groom, who didn’t run badly in the Woodward at 28-1, beaten 4 1/4 lengths, and should appreciate returning back to California; Game Winner, who is still behind, not doing much, and has a lot of catching up to do; Omaha Beach, who missed the Shared Belief Stakes, and the big question is whether he can return his old self in the Ack Ack Stakes and be ready for the Classic off one mile race in seven months; asking a lot; Tax, who is bred for 1 1/4 miles, but needs to rebound after tiring in the Travers; Endorsed, not likely for the Classic, but a horse to definitely watch in the future. Still have an APB out for Gunnevera, who hasnt run since the Dubai World Cup and hasnt worked since late July.

It’s Time For Some Baby Talk

Blood-Horse Staff — Wed, 04 Sep 2019 16:13:00 GMT

Summer is gearing down, the Hopeful and Del Mar Futurity have been run, and September means the beginning of fall. And the beginning of fall means 2-year-olds, and in this case a double dose of them.

Of course you have to start ranking them with the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in mind, but you also have to start looking at these babies as potential Kentucky Derby horses. At least you do in this neck of the woods, where the roses are already starting to bloom.

We are well aware that we have to get through a long, cold winter first. But as Amanda McBroom wrote, “Just remember in the winter, far beneath the bitter snows, lies the seed, that with the sun’s love in the spring becomes the rose.”

So let’s catch an early whiff of rose petals and mint juleps. Below, you will see our early rankings, not only with the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in mind but next year’s Kentucky Derby, with the emphasis on pedigree.

With the large number of maiden and stakes horses this time of year, there very well could be omissions—those we missed will be added—but let’s get it started.

BC JUVENILE AND KENTUCKY DERBY RANKINGS

1—Green Light Go	Jimmy Jerkens	Saratoga Special victory was both a brilliant and professional score. Excellent blend of speed and stamina. Bypassed Hopeful for Champagne due to sloppy track. Jerkens is overdue to put family name in Derby and Breeders’ Cup record books. Looks to have a ton of class.
2—Basin	Steve Asmussen	May 12 foal, broke his maiden in swift 1:09 3/5 before scoring runaway victory in Hopeful. Mostly a mile to 1 1/8 mile pedigree, but tail-female family could get him to go farther. Handles fast and sloppy tracks equally.
3—Three Technique	Jeremiah Englehart	Only a maiden winner, but stamped himself as possibly something special. Showed brilliant turn of foot to blow his field away. Loved his low action and the way he was striding out. Ran four-fifths faster than the other division. Has seven classic winners in his five-generation pedigree, including three Triple Crown winners.
4—Eight Rings	Bob Baffert	Sent off at 1-2 in Del Mar Futurity after spectacular maiden score only to duck in at the start and lose his rider. As slow as they ran and came home in Futurity, one would have to think he would have had no trouble beating this field. Bred to run all day.
5—Gouverneur Morris	Todd Pletcher	It’s difficult judging a young horse based on one 5 1/2-furlong start in the slop, but this colt looked like the real deal, sitting off the pace and powering his way to a scintillating 9-length romp with John Velazquez never even moving the whip or asking him to run in the stretch, winning geared down. Love the inbreeding to Unbridled and second dam by Touch Gold. Can’t wait to see him on a fast track.
6—Express Train	John Shirreffs	Stretched out to a mile following distant second to Eight Rings and demolished his field by 14 1/4 lengths. Not sure what he beat; defeated 40-1 shot in 1:38 2/5. He has a pedigree inundated with stamina and will run all day, He certainly boosts reputation of Eight Rings.
7—Tap it to Win	Mark Casse	Had a perfect rail-skimming trip in maiden victory, but accelerated like a good horse and drew off impressively in a sprightly 1:09 3/5. Tapit on top of Medaglia d‘Oro mare should enable him to stretch out with no problem.
8—Dennis’ Moment	Dale Romans	Demolished Ellis Park maiden field by staggering 19 1/4 lengths in a brilliant 1:21 4/5 for 7 panels. Gets just the right amount of speed from damsire Elusive Quality to go with tons stamina top and bottom thru sire Tiznow tracing to Pleasant Colony in tail-female family.
9—Flute Maker	Ken McPeek	Yes, his runaway maiden score at Spa was off the turf, but you had to be very impressed with his turn of foot to sweep to the lead on the turn, fan wide, and then pour it on without being asked to romp by 11 1/2 lengths going 7 furlongs. Very rare pedigree coup being inbred to Triple Crown winners Affirmed, Seattle Slew, and Secretariat. Broodmare sire Pleasantly Perfect won BC Classic and second dam Flute won Kentucky Oaks and Alabama.
10—Nucky	Peter Miller	It wasn’t so much the slow final time of his Del Mar Futurity score after Eight Rings threw his rider, it was the extremely slow come home times of :26 and :14 2/5 following blazing early fractions of :21 4/5 and 44 4/5. The fact he pressed that pace gives him a pass for the sluggish final fractions, and the two in front of him were badly beaten, finishing last and next to last of those who finished. Plenty of stamina and should improve going longer.
11—Scabbard	Eddie Kenneally	Formerly known as (the terribly named) Noose, he overcame a bad start to rally for second to Green Light Go in the Saratoga Special following impressive 5-length maiden score at Churchill Downs. By More Than Ready out of a very strong female family.
12—Shoplifted	Steve Asmussen	Not sure how far he wants to go, but his maiden victory in 1:03 4/5 at Saratoga was very impressive and he rallied from sixth to get up for second in the Hopeful Stakes. Another runner by Into Mischief, his female family is loaded with speed so he will have to find stamina somewhere, but the Breeders’ Cup should be no problem.
13—Gozilla	Steve Asmussen	Have a feeling his well-beaten third in the Hopeful was an aberration, and if he can ever learn to settle off the pace we will see an entirely different horse. He appears to be extremely talented and his maiden score was a thing of beauty. What makes him an enigma is that he is bred for stamina top and bottom. In short, he is much better than he showed in the Hopeful. He just needs to harness his speed and take advantage of his pedigree.
14—Storm the Court	Peter Eurton	Lost all chance in Del Mar Futurity when Eight Rings ducked in causing him to nearly go down. So just have to go by his gutsy maiden win, his pedigree, and his trainer, who is an excellent horseman and looks ready to make an impact on the classics.
15—Collusion Illusion	Mark Glatt	Best Pal winner skipped the Del Mar Futurity, working three days earlier, his first since the Best Pal three weeks earlier. Undefeated in two starts, he should stretch out in distance with no problem with his strong pedigree.
16—Enforceable	Mark Casse	He certainly has more foundation than any of the others, breaking his maiden at Saratoga going 1 1/8 miles in a pretty solid 1:50 3/5 in his fourth start. Full sister and brother in his male and female families, both by In Reality, out of the top producer Foggy Note. He’s already ready for the Remsen Stakes.
17—City Man	Christophe Clement	Defeated New York-breds in the Funny Cide to remain undefeated, but the way he did it, drawing off impressively after chasing fast fractions, suggests he will be facing open company very shortly. He is by Mucho Macho Man, but his female family is mostly speed so we’ll have to see how far he wants to go. No doubt the talent is there.
18—Wrecking Crew	Peter Miller	Out-battled 37-1 shot for second in Del Mar Futurity, but was no match for stablemate Nucky. He was coming off strong second in the Best Pal Stakes after winning first time out at 2-5. Good mixture of speed and stamina. Just have no idea what to make of the Del Mar Futurity after what happened early on.
19—By Your Side	Eddie Kenneally	Going to attribute his poor effort in the Hopeful to the slop, as he went into that race undefeated, including an impressive score in the Sanford Stakes, in which he sat in second before drawing off to win by 3 lengths in 1:10 1/5. Distance should not be a problem for son of Constitution.
20—Tumbling Sky	Steve Asmussen	Maiden victory got a bit lost, coming on the same card as Gozilla’s more visually impressive score. But his 1:09 4/5 time was only a tick slower than his stablemate. Pedigree doesn’t jump out at you, but is stronger than it looks. Been breezing easy half miles.
21—Tuggle	Jeremiah Englehart	Following wire-to-wire score in career debut and third in the Saratoga Special, he was switched to the grass in With Anticipation and ran an even sixth. Watch him if he goes back to dirt. With his stamina heavy pedigree top and bottom, no reason for him to be on the lead. Should be dynamite going two turns on the dirt.
22—American Theorem	George Papaprodromou	American Pharoah colt ran to his fast works, winning career debut showing good acceleration after being behind wall of horses. Won by 1 ½ lengths but was 10 lengths in front on the gallop out. Race was only 5 1/2 furlongs but with his pedigree he should have no trouble stretching out.
23—Defense Wins	Doug O’Neill	After half-length defeat in career debut behind Collusion Illusion, he was thrown into Del Mar Futurity and ran well enough to finish third at odds of 37-1. Plenty of stamina and you don’t see many horses out of a Silver Charm mare. Should keep improving.
24—Fore Left	Doug O’Neill	Tremont winner and close third in the Best Pal, he got caught up in torrid pace duel in Del Mar Futurity before tiring to finish well-beaten fifth. Although he won Tremont setting brisk pace, he will need to curtail his speed if he wants to be competitive when the distances stretch out.
25—Acre	Bill Mott	After poor showing in career debut at 5 ½ furlongs, he was visually impressive stretching out to 7 furlongs, drawing off to 3 1/2-length score in off-the-turfer. Probably has more stamina in his pedigree than any of the others, being by Blame, out of stamina-laden European family.

Others to watch are Tomato Bill, who is back working steadily after second in Sanford Stakes. Won debut by 4 lengths at Delaware Park. He is another who needs to sit behind horses and not be committed to the lead; Famished, who overcame bumping at the start of Spa maiden race to draw clear late, winning by 1 1/4 lengths, but ran four-fifths slower than Three Technique; Glory Road, who would have made the list after he closed like a rocket to win career debut for Pletcher, but hasn’t worked since. Once he gets back in training he should be one to keep an eye on; Sapling Stakes winner Big City Bob, who showed his gameness breaking his maiden by a hard-fought nose before scoring a tough neck victory in the Sapling. Son of Shanghai Bobby has a ton of stamina in female family highlighted by classic winners Birdstone, Grindstone, and Affirmed in first three generations; Wayne Lukas-trained American Butterfly, who scored 22-1 upset in maiden race, but tired in Hopeful Stakes after battling on the lead. Female family should help him stretch out; New York-bred Moonachie, who won his career debut by 10 lengths for Jeremiah Englehart, who should start thinking about putting him in open company; Always Misbehaving, who finished second to Three Technique, stretching out from 5 1/2 to 7 furlongs; Bob Baffert-trained Hydrogen, who closed well to finish second to American Theorem in maiden race. I like the way he was moving in the final furlong and he will improve when the distances stretch out. With his pedigree he wants no part of 5 1/2 furlongs; there has to be a excuse for Garth in the Del Mar Futurity. Sent off at 4-1, the Baffert-trained son of Into Mischief had run a big second to Storm the Court in career debut. For Baffert to put him in a grade 1 as a maiden, he must have thought a lot of him. He dueled on the lead before hitting the proverbial brick wall at the head of the stretch like a horse who bled or had a breathing problem. We’ll keep an eye on that.

No Cracking This Code

Blood-Horse Staff — Tue, 27 Aug 2019 16:41:00 GMT

Having covered the Triple Crown races in one form or another for the past 32 years, including writing the features Derby Doings for Daily Racing Form and the Derby Dozen for BloodHorse, I can state emphatically that I cannot remember a horse maturing physically and mentally and turning into a polished professional as quickly as Code of Honor.

And it all came to fruition Aug. 24 in the Travers Stakes when the boy officially turned into a man.

The victory of Code of Honor fit perfectly into the continuing strange saga of this year’s crop of 3-year-olds, and proved once again that when it comes to horses, there are no experts, and even the most astute horsemen often have trouble judging a horse on what he may become rather than what he is as a yearling or young 2-year-old.

That is why a horse named Maximum Security, sired by a champion and owned by one of the top owners and breeders in the country, can make his career debut in a $16,000 claiming race and go unclaimed and then finish first in the Kentucky Derby (only to be disqualified) and win the Florida Derby and Haskell Invitational.

It is why a horse named Tax, owned and bred by the powerful team of Claiborne Farm and Adele Dilschneider, winds up in a $30,000 claiming race first time out and goes unclaimed. Going to the claiming well once again he finally gets snatched for $50,000 and wins the Jim Dandy Stakes, Withers Stakes, and finishes second in the Wood Memorial and third in the Remsen Stakes.

It is why a horse named Sir Winston fails to meet his modest $50,000 reserve at the Keeneland September yearling sale, is bought back by his breeder Tracy Farmer, and winds up winning the Belmont Stakes.

And now we have a slightly built, immature late foal who is bred by powerhouse Lane’s End Farm, gets put in the Keeneland September yearling and has no takers, failing to meet his $70,000 reserve. So Lane’s End takes Code of Honor home, races him and wins the Travers Stakes with him, as well as the historic Dwyer Stakes and Fountain of Youth Stakes, and gets moved up to second in the Kentucky Derby on the disqualification of Maximum Security.

It appears as if the proverbial crystal ball was a bit cloudy this year with a number of future stars there for the taking at a dirt cheap price, but unwanted for one reason or another.

In the case of Code of Honor, he was a late foal, born May 23, and was immature both physically and mentally. But according to Bill Farish of Lane’s End Farm, he was an efficient mover and everyone at Courtlandt Farm in Ocala where he was broken liked him very much.

So why did Lane’s End Farm try to sell this colt by the great Frankel’s full brother Noble Mission, a son of megastud Galileo?

Lane’s End sales director Allaire Ryan had all the reasons at her fingertips in the form of written comments she made about the colt when he was a yearling. Of course, the May 23 foaling date alone turned many buyers off. Although he was a medium to good-sized colt and well balanced with a quality head and eye and was light on his feet, he was narrow up front and toed out a bit and didn’t have a lot of bone. So in short, he was not what you would call a robust colt.

But there were other positives. Mainly he was very well made mechanically and was extremely easy on himself, according to Ryan, who added, “He always was aware of his surroundings, continued to move forward, and he had a high energy level.” Basically, he was a feel-good horse.

Unfortunately, or as it turned out, fortunately, he was never once scoped at the sale, so the writing was on the wall. This was a colt in which no one was interested. William Farish, founder of Lane’s End Farm, has always been known for setting fair reserves. He offered a high quality colt at a very affordable price, but wound up taking him back, breaking him at Courtlandt Farm, and racing him.

The colt was a farm favorite, and everyone at Lane’s End was encouraged when trainer Shug McGaughey’s assistant Robbie Medina mentioned how much the colt loved to train. As Ryan said, “His athleticism and personality were bigger than he was and he was always known here as the Little Big Horse.”

After spending time at Fair Hill, where he had a couple of breezes, he was sent to McGaughey’s barn at Saratoga.

“He didn’t exactly blow us away stepping off the van,” said McGaughey’s son and assistant, Reeve. But they saw he was a good mover and came to them with a good reputation.

A week later they gave him his first breeze at the track. Reeve recalled how he crawled the first eighth in :14 and change or even :15. Reeve and Medina looked at each other wondering what was going on. But just then he took off, rattling off eighths in :11 and change and :12. He covered the half-mile in :48 flat and went to the wire and galloped out in :24 flat. That’s when they knew they had a talented colt.

He showed it by winning his career debut and doing it wire-to-wire at odds of 6-1. That was something you don’t see too often from a McGaughey-trained horse, who usually come along slowly.

In fact, Bill Farish said the last McGaughey-trained horse to win first time out was the Lane’s End (with partners)-owned Honor Code, but he came from 22 lengths back going seven furlongs, not wire-to-wire going six furlongs. So this was unusual.

You also don’t expect McGaughey to throw a 2-year-old with one six-furlong race into the one-mile, grade 1 Champagne Stakes against many of the top juveniles in the country. Code of Honor rallied from 10th to finish second to the Chad Brown speedball Complexity in a sharp 1:34 3/5, one of the fastest Champagnes ever. Despite stumbling twice coming out of the gate, he still flew home, and his “3 3/4” Thoro-Graph number stamped him as a horse with a promising future.

He had a perfect blend of dirt, grass, speed, and stamina. To demonstrate how you can turn him on and off, he breezed a slow five furlongs in 1:03 for the Champagne a week after breezing a half in a bullet :46 flat, fastest of 60 works at the distance, and, again, you normally don’t see a McGaughey 2-year-old work that fast.

Code of Honor’s sire, the English-bred Noble Mission, is a son of the great Galileo and a full brother to Frankel, and his two paternal grandsires, Sadler’s Wells and Danehill are pretty much responsible for the Coolmore dynasty well before the emergence of Galileo. Sadler’s Wells, his son Galileo, and Danehill have sired an amazing 1,000 stakes winners among them, including over 230 group/grade 1 winners. Code of Honor’s broodmare sire, Dixie Union was a grade 1 winner who sired Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags and has always been a favorite of Will Farish. Code of Honor gets his speed from his dam’s female family through Mt. Livermore, Bold Forbes, Irish Castle, Faneuil Hall, and Bolinas Boy. All this speed works beautifully with the abundance of stamina in his sire’s pedigree.

That is why he could win his career debut wire to wire and then come from 10th and last to finish second in the Champagne.

Code of Honor was forced to miss the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile after spiking a fever, which may have been the best thing for him, as he was able to gear down and prepare for the arduous Derby trail.

A dull fourth-place finish in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes at 4-5 was a head scratcher, but he came right back to win the Fountain of Youth Stakes, this time at odds of 9-1. However, he still didn’t look like the horse who closed like a rocket in the Champagne, as he crawled home his final sixteenth in :07 seconds after a sluggish :26 2/5 quarter, and just lasted over the fast-closing Bourbon War.

On the positive side, he did show good acceleration on the turn and left himself with room for improvement. A lack of pace hurt him in the Florida Derby and he could finish no better than third behind the runaway winner Maximum Security. As talented as he might have been, he had run greenly all winter and spring, whether it was drifting a bit down the stretch or easing himself after getting a lead.

But you could see him start to blossom after going to Keeneland and working brilliantly with the rider's feet in the dashboard early and the way he hugged the rail on both turns, cornering beautifully. This was the first indication that perhaps he was starting to put it all together and was ready for a peak effort on the first Saturday in May.

In the Kentucky Derby he made a big move along the rail and looked like a winner turning for home after sticking his head in front, but wasn’t able to sustain it after eventual winner Maximum Security came in on him. When Maximum Security was disqualified for interference (not involving Code of Honor), Code of Honor was moved up from third to second.

McGaughey shortened him up for the one-mile Dwyer Stakes and the transformation was remarkable, as Code of Honor settled in last, waited to make his move, and then blew his opponents away with a sensational :23 1/5 final quarter, bursting to the lead and drawing off to a 3 1/4-length score, despite a wide trip and jockey John Velazquez losing his whip.

McGaughey had contemplated coming back in the Jim Dandy Stakes as a prep for the Travers, but decided to give him time and train up to the race. It proved to be a smart move considering his negative-1/2 Thoro-Graph number made him the fastest horse going into the Travers and the only horse in the field to run a negative number.

The new-look Code of Honor once again overpowered his opponents, rallying from ninth to win going away by three lengths, and his time of 2:01 flat was the second-fastest Travers in the past 27 years, behind only Arrogate’s record-breaking performance in 2016. That was reflected in his lofty 105 Beyer speed figure and 108 Equibase Speed Figure. There was no doubt now that Code of Honor had come of age.

So, now it is on to the Jockey Club Gold Cup against older horses and then the Breeders’ Cup Classic. There is no telling how good this colt is now. The Little Big Horse who no one was interested in for the bargain basement price of $70,000 has grown into a man, and there is nothing little about him any longer.

BREEDERS' CUP CLASSIC RANKINGS

1—McKinzie	Bob Baffert	Extremely talented, but best efforts have come from 7 furlongs to 1 1/8 miles. Home track should help and Baffert is always dangerous at Santa Anita.
2—Code of Honor	Shug McGaughey	He has developed into a powerful closer and is proven at 1 1/4 miles. Just keeps getting better and possesses brilliant turn of foot.
3—Thunder Snow	Saeed bin Suroor	Another who has excelled at 1 1/4 miles, but ran bang-up race in Met Mile. Runs hard every race and game as they come.
4—Yoshida	Bill Mott	Has a chance to stamp himself as a major force in the Classic with a big effort in Woodward Stakes. Loves Saratoga and should be flying late.
5—Higher Power	John Sadler	If the Pacific Classic is a true indicator of who he really is then he is going to take a lot of beating in the Classic. But the competition will be much tougher.
6—Vino Rosso	Todd Pletcher	He has already traveled west and emerged victorious in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita, so he does have an advantage over the other Eastern shippers. Woodward will tell us a lot.
7—Preservationist	Jimmy Jerkens	Throw out his Whitney performance after extremely questionable ride. Woodward should show whether his sensational Suburban score was the real him.
8—Tacitus	Bill Mott	One of these days he is going to put it all together. After productive spring he keeps finding ways to get beat. Still ran a big second in the Travers despite very odd trip.
9—Gift Box	John Sadler	Has a gutsy win over McKinzie in the Big Cap, but still has not worked since July 13. Plenty of foundation and needs to get only one prep in. But time is now to get started.
10—Seeking the Soul	Dallas Stewart	Obviously did not run his race at Del Mar and we’ll see how he rebounds back east.We know he has the class and the closing kick.

Catholic Boy was dropped from the Top 10 this week until we find out just how minor or major a setback he suffered that caused him to withdraw from the Woodward Stakes. Another Top 10 horse, Hofburg, has been sent to the farm and his immediate future is
uncertain, but the Breeders’ Cup obviously is out. The next big test will be the September 21 Pennsylvania Derby, which could feature Maximum Security, Mr. Money, and possibly Improbable.

BREEDERS' CUP DISTAFF RANKINGS

1—Midnight Bisou	Steve Asmussen	Classy 3-year-old but has turned into a winning machine at 4.
2—Elate	Bill Mott	Runs her heart out every time, Just nipped at wire in Personal Ensign.
3—Dunbar Road	Chad Brown	Alabama winner developing quickly and should keep improving.
4—Guarana	Chad Brown	CCA Oaks score not as brilliant as Acorn tour de force, but will take world of beating in Cotillion.
5—Secret Spice	Richard Baltas	Tough defeats in Clement Hirsch and La Troienne, but ran huge to win Beholder Mile at Santa Anita.
6—Ollie’s Candy	John Sadler	Gutsy winner of Clement Hirsch
7—Wow Cat	Chad Brown	Classier than Personal Ensign 4th. Deserves another chance.
8—Point of Honor	George Weaver	Black-eyed Susan winner couldn’t handle Guarana and Dunbar Road in last two. Strong stretch runner.
9—Blue Prize	Ignacio Correas	Listed stakes score at Spa first since last year’s Spinster victory.
10—Escape Clause	Don Schnell	Right there against the best, beaten a nose by Midnight Bisou in Apple Blossom and second to Elate in Delaware Handicap.

Waiting to see how impressive Shuvee winner Golden Award is doing after being eased in Personal Ensign Stakes.

A Higher Power Hits Classic Trail

Frank Angst — Tue, 20 Aug 2019 13:20:00 GMT

You can't say it hasn't been a strange, but remarkably productive, year for jockey Flavien Prat. Following the Kentucky Derby, I chronicled his bizarre path to Churchill Downs for the Run for the Roses, as he went through one contender after another, including Derby favorite Omaha Beach, before winding up on 65-1 shot Country House and then becoming the first jockey ever to be placed first by the stewards on a disqualification.

While Prat was piloting the Bill Mott-trained colt to victory, a 4-year-old allowance horse named Higher Power, who had a maiden win and two allowance scores, on dirt and grass, in nine career starts at Fair Grounds, Oaklawn Park, and Remington Park was being transferred from the barn of Michael Stidham to John Sadler at Santa Anita after being purchased at the Keeneland Horses of Racing Age sale by Hronis Racing from the colt's breeder Pin Oak Stable.

The son of Medaglia d'Oro hardly looked like a stakes horse, never mind a graded stakes horse, and certainly never mind a grade 1 stakes horse. In fact, he had made a brief appearance on the Derby trail the year before, but after finishing an uninspiring eighth, beaten over 12 lengths, in the Rebel Stakes at 44-1 and then a well-beaten third in the listed Northern Spur Stakes, he was moved from Donnie Von Hemel's barn to Stidham's and relegated to allowance company before being sold.

One day Stidham called Sadler and told him that Pin Oak was cutting back and had him in the Keeneland April Horses of Racing Age sale and suggested he take a look at him. Sadler and bloodstock agent David Ingordo looked him over, liked what they saw, and purchased him for Hronis Racing for $250,000. They all felt a colt with his pedigree, being out of a Seattle Slew mare, was a smart purchase. Well, in only three months, he has already earned almost three times more than they paid for him.

After three starts for Sadler and Hronis Racing, including a fifth-place finish in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita and an allowance victory and a second in the restricted Wickerr Stakes, both on grass, and going through eight different jockeys in his career, guess who winds up on him for the grade 1 Pacific Classic?

Yep, the Flying Frenchman, who was in the midst of a record year, already earning as much money as he did all of last year, while winning such top races as the Kentucky Derby, Queen's Plate, Santa Anita Oaks. Gamely Stakes, Belmont Gold Cup, and Eddie Read Stakes. And now add the Pacific Classic.

Prat's agent, Derek Lawson, who has been on a wild roller coaster ride all year, received a phone call one day from Sadler asking him to work Higher Power, who had been ridden in his last two starts by Drayden Van Dyke. But after winning an allowance race on grass wire to wire, Higher Power fell victim to the Dick Mandella-trained Bombard in the Wickerr Stakes, who pretty much stole the race on the front end under, you guessed it, Flavien Prat. Sadler had been impressed with the way Prat had battled his main jockey Joel Rosario for the leading rider title at Santa Anita this past winter and with his dramatic last to first charge to win the Oceanside Stakes on his and Hronis Racing's Jasikan. He reached out to Lawson.

So Prat worked Higher Power six furlongs in a sharp 1:13 2/5 and loved the way he skipped over the track and how strong he galloped out. He also saw how excited the colt's connections were about running him in the Pacific Classic.

A short while earlier, Prat had commented to Lawson about how they don't have much for the Breeders' Cup. Now they have the winner of the Pacific Classic, a "Win and You're In" race for the Breeders' Cup Classic, who crushed his field by 5 1/4 lengths and is bred to run all day, and likely will be aboard the Sadler-trained Catalina Cruiser--winner of the True North Stakes and San Diego Handicap in his past two starts--in the seven-furlong Pat O'Brien Stakes Aug. 24.

Prat had Higher Power in a perfect stalking position behind the pace-setting second-choice Quip, and when Quip ran into the proverbial brick wall at the five-sixteenths pole, Prat was able to burst clear of the field in a flash and never looked back, scoring his third victory of the year in a million-dollar race.

With the Breeders' Cup run at Santa Anita this year, Prat now is in position to complete a Kentucky Derby--Breeders' Cup Classic double on horses who basically fell into his lap.

Yes, it's been that kind of year.

BREEDERS' CUP CLASSIC RANKINGS

Not quite ready to integrate the 3-year-olds with the older horses until they sort themselves out Saturday in the Travers Stakes. Pennsylvania Derby should then clear up the picture completely. I will start integrating after Travers.

1—McKinzie	Bob Baffert	Most talented, but is he as effective going 1 1/4 miles? Home track should help. Couldn’t get by Gift Box in Big Cap, but still the horse to beat.
2--Catholic Boy	Jonathan Thomas	Last year's Travers winner needed Suburban effort and should improve in Woodward Stakes.
3--Thunder Snow	Saeed bin Suroor	Scratched Whitney morning and was sitting on huge effort. Has won or placed in grade 1 or group 1 stakes in five different countries. Moves up at 1 1/4 miles.
4--Higher Power	John Sadler	Burst on the scene with rousing score in Pacific Classic. Awesome pedigree and will run all day. Can he duplicate against better competition?
5--Yoshida	Bill Mott	Powerful closer who moves up going 1 1/4 miles. Ran huge race in Whitney to be second and was beaten only 1 3/4 lengths in last year’s Classic. Very dangerous.
6--Hofburg	Bill Mott	This is the big sleeper after impressive nine-furlong allowance score at Spa. Could move way up with big effort in Woodward Stakes. Gifted colt.
7--Preservationist	Jimmy Jerkens	Throw out fourth in Whitney after terrible ride. Suburban romp over Catholic Boy stamps him as dangerous contender.
8--Vino Rosso	Todd Pletcher	Hard-knocking colt always tries hard. Distance no problem and has good closing kick. He was my No. 1 ranked 3-year-old last spring.
9--Gift Box	John Sadler	Nosed out McKinzie in Big Cap for third straight win, but has lost last two and hasn’t worked since July 13. Didn’t handle Churchill, especially on short rest. Still on course for Awesome Again Stakes.
10--Seeking the Soul	Dallas Stewart	Didn’t run a lick in Pacific Classic, but excuse classy horses, especially Eastern horses, who run dismal races at Del Mar. Remember ’17 Breeders Cup.
11--Draft Pick	Peter Eurton	Big effort in Pacific Classic in only third start of the year and stretching out from mile and 1 1/16 miles. Easily bred for 10 furlongs. Trainer always live.
12--Mongolian Groom	Enebish Ganbat	Has quietly chalked up strong thirds in the Big Cap and Pacific Classic and ran a big second to Catalina Cruiser in the San Diego Handicap.
13--Pavel	Doug O'Neill	You never know what you’re going to get from him and War Story. He is capable of popping a big one at any time. You just don’t know if and when his exhausting career will catch up to him for good. Deserves another chance.
14--Tacitus	Bill Mott	Let’s start on the 3-year-olds, who will sort themselves out in Travers. He may be most talented, but needs good luck for a change. Blinkers may help.
15--Code of Honor	Shug McGaughey	He's just now maturing and peaking and his Dwyer score was powerful. Mile and a quarter might not be best distance, but he should handle it at Santa Anita.
16--Maximum Security	Jason Servis	Crazy career and we still have no idea how good he is. Don’t like that he’s still not 100% after Haskell score. Brilliant and talented. Pennsylvania Derby should tell us more.
17--Game Winner	Bob Baffert	Tough break having to miss Travers after coming down with cough. Schedule now up in the air. We know he’s talented, but Los Al Derby win proved little.
18--Tax	Danny Gargan	Travers will tell all. Getting really good now and we know distance will not be a problem. Excellent cruising speed should serve him well at Santa Anita.
19--Spinoff	Todd Pletcher	Lost his way for a while, but impressive score over good older horses in Spa allowance at 1 1/8 miles has him back on track. Dangerous next time he runs, likely in Pennsylvania Derby.
20--Highest Honors	Chad Brown	Very lightly raced, but could be ready to put it all together come Breeders' Cup time. Seems to have all the tools. Brown dangerous with lightly raced horses.

Another 3-year-old to watch is Mr. Money, who has been winning stakes in the Midwest by big margins. He'll face an acid test in the Pennsylvania Derby. There are other 3-year-olds, such as Owendale, Endorsed, and megabomb Laughing Fox who could put themselves right in the picture with a big effort in the Travers. All are bred for 1 1/4 miles. We're waiting to see how quickly Omaha Beach gets back to serious training. Once he does and trains well he will jump up the list.