Looking for the Bottom in the Thoroughbred Marketplace

re: Looking for the Bottom in the Thoroughbred Marketplace

Ginger — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 13:54:18 GMT

As with all market readjustments, the stages are always the same. The crash is history, the reaction to it this year is based on fear of the market dropping further. I believe we have reached our bottom, with the exception of the regional markets. Sales last year and the beginning of this year held pretty steady at around a 30% decrease in average. In 2009 there were bright spots, i.e. Saratoga, in that average was down less than that 30% level at most major sales. Now we have the first stages of recovery, but I do not expect an instant recovery. Those of us that remember other market downfalls like the 80s remember that we survived. This is different in that the entire economy is drastically affected. However, this also leaves more possibilities for good news and optimism, and the Dow was over 10,000 yesterday, certainly a good sign. Smart buyers will invest heavily in November and wait for the market to come around in a year or so. Keeneland November is down substantially in numbers, which in theory should protect the average a bit. I expect good foals to be an exceptionally good buy, and that the market for mares will be substantially down due to the long term investment aspect. But many buyers will reap serious profits in the next few years if they are gutsy enough to invest and have some money to do it. Smart 2yo pinhookers will buy weanlings this year while the discount is still there.

Just my ten cents worth....

re: Looking for the Bottom in the Thoroughbred Marketplace

Jackman — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 20:35:41 GMT

Arrowwood seems to be correct. Claiborne announced their 2010 stud fees. They reduced Pulpit 25% which might be fair considering he is a solid stallion and his yearling avg. has remained high. How did they not cut the rest of their stallioons in half? Is anyone going to pay $25K for Arch and First Samurai for $30K in his fourth year. Am I the only one who thinks they should be between $10,000 and 12,500? The sales market is down 40% and the purses and handle at the tracks are in free fall yet they are going to advertise the same stud fees as last year. No wonder the industry is sinking. Everyone is living in a dream world.

re: Looking for the Bottom in the Thoroughbred Marketplace

Arrowwood — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 13:54:08 GMT

It will be interesting to see what happens with Stud Fees. I think it is unlikely farms will announce large decreases. More likely, I think farms will either list the fees as 'Private Contract', or list one fee and then offer big discounts to owners willing to breed multiple mares. This is actually what happened at several big farms last year. I think another factor is that some of these studs were purchased with borrowed money using the stallions as collateral, and the farms simply can't lower fees too much without lowering the value of the collateral.

re: Looking for the Bottom in the Thoroughbred Marketplace

eliz — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 17:01:46 GMT

There was a post yesterday (to this exact article, it was the only article that I looked at, so it showed highlighting as having been viewed) in which someone commented that if the horses were on the track longer rather than ushered off to the breeding shed to make $ it would build the fan base, and reduce the number of foals, of which so many go to slaughter anyway (we just had a beautiful runner flushed from Emerald Downs named Ready Say Go in the kill pen at the last Enumclaw auction).

I want to see that person's comments restored to this article, they made a very good point about building a horse's career so that the public follows the equine athlete and the fan base builds to support responsible racing.

re: Looking for the Bottom in the Thoroughbred Marketplace

seb — Sat, 10 Oct 2009 00:26:04 GMT

I think this discounts breeders whose yearlings either were removed from sales or did not meet reserve. It seems like we may an attempt to sell such horses by their breeders rather than pinhookers at the two year old sales.

Pinhookers may be able to react, but I don't think breeders with young stock still in the barn can choose to race all of their remainders.

re: Looking for the Bottom in the Thoroughbred Marketplace

onechaser — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 23:44:51 GMT

The market has always been at the mercy of the pinhookers..but who would buy the majority of these weanlings and yearlings without them?

re: Looking for the Bottom in the Thoroughbred Marketplace

da3hoss — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 19:05:17 GMT

Fewer Pinhookers will be a definite boon for the industry.