Hangin' With Haskin : Jess Jackson

No Banjo on Rachel's Knee

cdawahare — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 20:10:00 GMT

Jess Jackson has made his first decision: No Alabama for Rachel Alexandra. So what, you might say. That wasn't the place to run her anyway. Well, I believe that's just where she should have run.

Yes, I know that race would have proven little, and that she has transcended 3-year-old filly competition (using the word competition very loosely). But where does it say she has to prove herself every race?

My colleague Ed Fountaine of the New York Post wrote a column last week stating all the reasons why the Alabama would be the right race for Rachel. Although, most people would disagree with him, I am in total agreement.

So, the Alabama will not do anything to boost Rachel Alexandra's claim as Horse of the Year. If there is one horse who does not need to boost that claim it is Rachel. The Alabama is one of the most prestigious races in the country and offers a purse of $600,000. And some talented fillies were entered. What's wrong with showcasing Rachel in front of a packed house at Saratoga and let the fans simply enjoy her presence and watch her put on another show? Imagine the cheers as she glides down the Saratoga stretch in all her splendor. This one would have been for the fans. The race would not have taken too much out of her and would have set her up to take on older males in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, which would indeed cap off an amazing Horse of the Year campaign - Fair Grounds Oaks, Fantasy Stakes, Kentucky Oaks, Preakness, Mother Goose, Haskell Invitational, Alabama, Jockey Club Gold Cup. No horse has ever had a campaign such as that. And the Alabama would have given her a 1 1/4-mile race under her belt and prevented her from having to go that far for the first time against older males, assuming the Travers and Personal Ensign are not on her agenda.

Let's look at the options with which Jackson has left himself. The Woodward, regardless of how inferior you might think the older horses are this year - and it's far from a stellar group - they still are older horses, and a 3-year-old filly facing older males in early September is not an easy task, even for a horse as special as Rachel. And then she'd have to come back and do it again in the Gold Cup, going 10 panels for the first time. She doesn't need to beat basically the same older males twice. Once is quite sufficient. And as mentioned before, the Alabama would have set her up perfectly for the Gold Cup, giving her the necessary bottom. Also, the Labor Day weekend is not the best time to show off a star like Rachel, especially with it being so late this year. Most people are already home and getting ready to return to work or school.

Jackson won the Woodward last year with Curlin, but the buzz just wasn't there, nor were the numbers, despite an extensive marketing campaign by NYRA. And then Curlin winds up struggling to beat a horse he should have beaten by 10 lengths. This is Saratoga. Nothing is a certainty here.

Regarding the other alternatives, Jackson already has Kensei looking to boost his reputation as a stallion in the Travers, so it would make no sense to run Rachel there, unless he's willing to pass up that opportunity with Kensei and run him in the grade II Pennsylvania Derby, with its $1-million purse. Asmussen already has Soul Warrior set for Philly Park.

Running in the Travers would pit Rachel against Quality Road, who has to make a huge stretch-out from 6 1/2 furlongs to 1 1/4 miles. Although that is a daunting task, remember that Quality Road has the same running style as Rachel and would be hounding her the whole way. On top of that, physically, he's a beast. Although a gentle giant in his stall, Quality Road is a ton of horse with shoulders like The Incredible Hulk. He's extremely athletic for such a big horse, he's every bit as fast and brilliant as Rachel, and while we can't say for sure if he's ready to win the Travers, he definitely will be an imposing presence for a filly who is used to being an imposing presence herself and who has never looked a horse like Quality Road in the eye before. No disrespect to Mine That Bird and Summer Bird, who are both exceptional horses, but if f there is a superstar among the 3-year-old colts it is Quality Road.

The Personal Ensign is run this year the day after the Travers, making it anticlimactic, and many people will be heading home by then. Also, that is usually a strangely run race and always produces slow times and for the most part unusual results. Ashado was beaten by longshot Shadow Cast at 2-5. Wild Spirit was beaten by longshot Passing Shot at 1-5. Unbridled Belle was beaten by longshot Miss Shop at 8-5. Azeri was beaten at 3-5. Escena was beaten at 4-5. Beautiful Pleasure was beaten at 2-1. The race is rarely run in under 2:03 and change. In short, this is a dangerous race, which has been a killer on favorites. It's best not to fool around here.

So, that brings the question of which of these races to choose. They all have their gremlins. It could very well be that Rachel is special enough to overcome them, but it wouldn't be wise to go into any of them feeling cocky.

Of course, there is the big NYRA Beldame blitz, complete with unknown sponsor and elimination of the detention barn, to keep in mind, but that's not until Oct. 3, so Rachel would need a race anyway, and that match-up coming to fruition is still a longshot.

What's important is now. By turning in a sharp five-furlong work on Monday, Rachel appears ready to run, and we all know anything can happen between now and the Travers or the Personal Ensign or the Woodward. As the old-time trainers used to say, if they're ready to run, you run them. The Alabama was the perfect spot for her, but to resort to a cliché, that ship has sailed.

Rachel vs. Zenyatta - How to Make it Happen

cdawahare — Wed, 01 Jul 2009 13:32:00 GMT

Everyone wants to see a showdown between Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta. Although people do change their minds, as Jess Jackson did last year with Curlin, there are issues involved here that make it improbable it's going to happen.

But there is a way to overcome those issues, which we'll get to later.

Let's first discuss the principals involved. The owners of both horses have proven to be sportsmen and would love to see them square off. But, when it comes to meeting in either New York or California they each have their reasons for going their separate ways.

Jess Jackson, majority owner of Rachel Alexandra, has stated emphatically he does not like "plastics," as he refers to synthetic surfaces, and will not send Rachel to the Breeders' Cup, run for the second year in a row on Santa Anita's Pro-Ride surface. John Shirreffs, trainer of Zenyatta, does not like detention barns, based on his two previous experiences.

Jackson has bad memories of Curlin's defeat in last year's Classic, which he blames on the surface, whether you agree or not. And Shirreffs has bad memories of Giacomo and Tiago boiling over and losing their composure in the detention prior to their respective appearances in the Belmont Stakes. Even though none of these issues has anything to do with the Rachel (who has already won impressively on a synthetic surface) and Zenyatta (who has never been in a detention barn), you can't blame the parties involved for the way they feel. It's just the way it is. Neither is ducking the other.

As for Jackson, many believe Curlin, who worked brilliantly over the Pro-Ride surface between races before last year's Breeders' Cup, simply was over the top by race day. He made an explosive move around the turn to challenge for the lead, but tired in the stretch. Did he really not care for the track on that day or did his long stay in Dubai and four subsequent starts, three of which were far from strolls in the park, finally catch up with him at the three-sixteenths pole of the Classic? No one can say with certainty whether his two struggles against questionable opponents in the Woodward and Jockey Club Gold were a hint that he was heading in the wrong direction or whether he indeed was compromised by the track at Santa Anita. The one thing few can argue with is that the Curlin of last year's Woodward and JC Gold Cup was not the Curlin of the 2007 Breeders' Cup Classic or Dubai World Cup. But bad memories make people apprehensive about repeating the incidents that caused them, and Jackson does not want to experiment with another superstar and risk damaging their reputation after having been burned once already. Whether Jackson is right or wrong in his dismissal of the Breeders' Cup, he is not willing to find out this time. Some will agree with his decision; many will not. All that matters as far as Rachel Alexandra is concerned is what he believes and how strongly he believes it.

In the case of Shirreffs and the Mosses, it is the same principal. They also have bad memories. They saw two placid colts lose their composure in the detention barn, and do not want to risk Zenyatta's undefeated record and jeopardize her chances in the Breeders' Cup, and then regret their decision if she suffers the same fate. We've already witnessed how intense Zenyatta often gets before a race, and the detention barn, following a 3,000-mile trip, could very well prove to be a bad experience for a mare who has basically spent her entire career running out of her own barn and going through the same relaxed routine. Shirreffs may feel it is kind of late now to disrupt that routine in such dramatic fashion and then have another cross-country trip back home. Once again, whether we agree or not, we have to respect his and the Mosses' decision.

So, we could move on and concentrate on the races in which Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra will run. They are pretty ambitious as it is, with Rachel heading for another date with the boys in either the Haskell or Travers, and Zenyatta looking at the Breeders' Cup Classic. Those races alone should provide us with enough thrills to last for a long time.

Most owners would not have even kept Zenyatta in training at age 5 after all she accomplished last year. Most owners would not have run Rachel in the Preakness. So, although it looks at this point as if we won't be getting the main course we've all been craving for, you can't dismiss all the exquisite dishes we've already been treated to and the ones still to come.

Now, comes the possible solution; one option that hasn't been discussed, but is worth mentioning, just for the heck of it. But if the two parties involved really...I mean really...want a showdown, what if Monmouth Park, which does not require horses to go into a detention barn, moves the date of the Molly Pitcher back a week to Sept. 5, giving Zenyatta four weeks from the Clement Hirsch, instead of three? If the 1 1/16 miles is too short, Monmouth has proven to be one of the more accommodating tracks and can easily move it to 1 1/8 miles. If the $300,000 purse is not lucrative enough, Monmouth, despite not being in the greatest financial situation, has provided enough incentives in the past to raise it to at least $500,000 if that's what it is required to get it done, although the feeling here is that the purse would not be that relative to sportsmen like Jackson and the Mosses. Under normal circumstances, Jackson likely wouldn't think of running Rachel in a grade II race, but this would far transcend the grade of the race.

Monmouth, after suffering horrible luck with the weather in the 2007 Breeder' Cup, brings back good memories for Jackson, who saw Curlin nail down Horse of the Year in the Classic. You can bet track management would go overboard in promoting this race, which would be a rousing close to the summer season at the Jersey Shore. What a way for the thousands of college kids who rent homes in nearby Belmar and other towns to celebrate one last time before heading back to school.

So, you would have Rachel and Zenyatta meeting on the dirt at a neutral track in front of young, enthusiastic fans who are known for giving equine stars a rousing welcome in the Haskell Invitational. Just ask the connections of Big Brown or Point Given or Funny Cide or War Emblem or Curlin.

Now, here's the kicker. If Rachel defeats Zenyatta, she likely would be voted Horse of the Year, and could then prepare for her 4-year-old campaign if Jackson and Asmussen decide to end the year on a high note. She would have nothing more to prove. If, however, Zenyatta defeats Rachel, don't you think there's a good chance that Jackson, despite his feelings for synthetic surfaces, would feel he has nothing to lose and everything to gain by seeking out Zenyatta for a revenge match in the Breeders' Cup?

As a side note, a meeting between the two fillies in the Ladies Classic would have negative repercussions, but we certainly could live with it. Imagine the number of disgruntled fans and the complaints directed at the Breeders' Cup for having a race of that magnitude on a Friday with 20,000 fewer fans in attendance and one-third the TV audience. Imagine having to settle Horse of the Year on a weekday when people on the West Coast are working and people in the Midwest and East are either coming home from work or eating dinner? It worked out well last year, because a dominant Zenyatta was given her own spotlight, befitting a star of her stature, even if there were fewer people in attendance and watching on TV. But when you have the sport's two biggest superstars clashing for Horse of the Year honors, you want that to be the main attraction on the biggest day of racing. But even if they do meet in a rematch in the Ladies Classic instead of the real Classic, we'll take it.

So, let Monmouth Park start putting the gears in motion. Crazier things have happened. I realize I'm grasping at straws. But what's the alternative?

Horse of the Year Follies

Blood-Horse Staff — Thu, 30 Oct 2008 15:53:00 GMT

So, will it be Curlin or Zenyatta for Horse of the Year? That is the question everyone – fans, writers, horsemen – either seem to be asking or are adamant about one way or the other. Obviously, a case can be made for either one.

But I have to admit I am flabbergasted that not a single person I’m aware of has even thrown Big Brown into the mix. Now I know he’s not going to be voted Horse of the Year or likely even come close, due to a variety of reasons, many of them fueled by a dislike for the horse’s trainer and/or owner. Others simply feel he beat up on inferior competition all year.

But don’t we at least owe it to the horse and his remarkable accomplishments to place him in the same category as Curlin, who also beat up on inferior competition all year, and Zenyatta, who…nah, I’m not saying anything negative about her. Curlin supporters claim she’s never run against colts, so we’ll just use that one for the sake of fairness.

These are three special horses, and knocking one to enhance another is like chopping Thomas Jefferson’s nose off on Mount Rushmore to make George Washington look better.

I am not going to spew out the same litany of praises for Big Brown that I’ve been doing all year. Most of it falls on deaf ears anyway, and there is no further reason to sound like a defense attorney constantly telling a hostile jury what a fine, upstanding citizen his client is.

We all know that Big Brown’s accomplishments earlier in the year were unlike anything we’ve ever seen. No one has put together performances like the Florida Derby, Kentucky Derby, and Preakness with so little foundation and experience. The bottom line is, he never lost a race he finished, and the fact that he returned after a physically and mentally demanding Triple Crown to win both his starts, in a grade I and on the turf, shows what an extraordinary horse he was, competition aside.

But enough of that, as I can already feel the fumes beginning to build up from the Curlin fans. Everyone has been trying to figure out what happened to Curlin in that last quarter of a mile in the Classic. There are several theories, but we’re never going to know for sure.

Some feel he’s not as good as he was last year. I can’t disagree with that. Some feel he was undertrained for a 10-furlong race over a synthetic surface. I can’t disagree with that either, although I certainly don’t know the horse like Steve Asmussen does; he’s done nothing wrong so far in his training of Curlin. Asmussen, however, admits he doesn’t have a handle on synthetics yet, and the trainers that do all seem to believe you need to have a horse dead-fit to run well over it, and most work their horses at least six furlongs before a distance race. Was Curlin fit enough for a synthetic Classic with only one serious five-furlong work and a couple of slow half-mile breezes in four weeks? Beats me, but it’s at least worth throwing out there. Some feel the six-week trip to Dubai, during which Curlin made his 2008 debut under 132 pounds and then came back four weeks later in the World Cup, had a long-range effect on him. Who knows? Remember, Cigar came back from Dubai and won his first two races and then lost three of his last four.

If Curlin wasn’t the same horse as last year, why wasn’t he? We all know horses are supposed to get better at four. One factor that has not been brought out, and this pertains to Big Brown as well, is that Curlin was taken off steroids this year. Many veterinarians will tell you that has nothing to do with anything. I wouldn’t know; I’m just going by my observations, which are shared by many.

When majority owner Jess Jackson found out Curlin had been using Winstrol regularly last year, he had Asmussen discontinue its use in January in order to prove that the horse was every much a champion without drugs, which in turn would increase his appeal as a stallion. I don’t claim to know much if anything about the effect of steroids on horses. I do find it interesting, however, that Curlin, while still a magnificent horse, wasn’t quite as dominant and brilliant after being taken off Winstrol. The same with Big Brown, who still proved he was a fantastic, gutsy horse after being taken off the drug, but didn’t display the same dominance and brilliance he did when he was using it. Make of that what you wish. I am not giving an opinion, because I have no scientific basis to do so. I’m just stating the facts and what I, and most everyone, witnessed on the racetrack. Yes, Curlin won the Dubai World Cup and Stephen Foster by open lengths, but compare that competition to Street Sense, Hard Spun, Any Given Saturday, and Lawyer Ron. By late summer, he was doing just what he had to to win by narrow margins against the likes of Past the Point and Wanderin Boy.

But none of that has anything to do with who should be Horse of the Year. Conceding the anti-Big Brown movement, as misguided as I believe it is, I won’t waste anyone’s time making a case for him, as I’ve done that ad nauseum over the last several months. Perhaps one day after the dust has been swept away everyone will look back with more objectivity and realize what a special horse this was.

As for Curlin, his Breeders’ Cup Classic should not in any way be held against him. Give Jackson major kudos for going against his and his trainer’s initial gut feeling and doing what was in the best interest of the fans and the sport. Jackson and Asmussen stated emphatically they did not want to make Curlin a guinea pig over a surface no one knew anything about. But the racing world clamored for a Curlin – Big Brown showdown, and Jackson let them have it, even though it went against every principal he believed. The showdown didn’t happen, but imagine the Classic without either one of them. Curlin’s mere presence at Santa Anita made the Breeders’ Cup. When he worked between races it was like an unexpected visit from Elvis. Let’s be honest, if Curlin wasn’t in the Breeders’ Cup, would it have had anywhere near the buzz it did? Would any of the Classic horses have been given a rousing ovation in the paddock before the race, and more important, coming back afterwards in defeat?

Let’s just say hypothetically that Curlin wasn’t quite the same horse as last year for whatever reason. And let’s say he didn’t care for the synthetic surface quite as much as he did the dirt. And let’s just say he came up a bit short in that last quarter mile of the Classic. And let’s just say he was meeting far better competition than he did all year. The fact is he showed up under conditions less than ideal, gave the fans a big thrill with an explosive move on the far turn, and ran his heart out to the wire, while running the 1 1/4 miles in about 1:59 4/5, the fastest 10 furlongs he’s ever run. Two of the horses who beat him were superstars in Europe, and may have been even more formidable at this distance and on this surface.

With everything, Curlin had an unbelievable year. He paved new frontiers by going to Dubai for six weeks, attempted the near-impossible by pointing for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, which didn’t quite work out, and ventured into unknown territory by attempting to win America’s richest race over a surface on which he’d never raced. With all that, he still won the Dubai World Cup, Stephen Foster, Woodward Stakes, and Jockey Club Gold Cup, regardless of the competition. Was that insufficient to retain the crown he already wore? Did Zenyatta do enough to dethrone an existing king who did little wrong over an eight-month period?

I have to admit it is too early to state emphatically who I am voting for.

I love Zenyatta. I loved being around her before and after the Breeders’ Cup, as evidenced by the 200-plus photos I took of her arriving at Santa Anita and back at the barn following the Ladies Classic. I believe she is one of the greatest fillies in the history of the sport, because of her dramatic machine-like performances race after race, and because her running style always makes her vulnerable to pace and a freakish front-running effort. I think John Shirreffs, his wife Dottie, and Jerry and Ann Moss are four of the finest people I’ve ever met, and that is not restricted to horse racing. If Zenyatta were to be voted Horse of the Year, despite not having run against the boys, I would have no problem with it.

It’s tough trying to compare these two sensational horses. It’s just, as of now, I am trying to convince myself she did enough to knock Curlin off this throne, having run all her races but one on a synthetic surface in California, while Curlin ran well on fast dirt, slop, grass, and even on the Pro-Ride, while racing in Dubai, New York, Kentucky, and California – arguably the three biggest stages in the world for an American-based horse. Being undefeated certainly will help her cause.

So, that’s where I stand right now, which is in limbo. Whoever is voted Horse of the Year, congratulations, you deserve it. Oh yes, and that goes for Big Brown, too.

Why Curlin Will Run in the Classic

Blood-Horse Staff — Thu, 04 Sep 2008 21:28:00 GMT

Actually, I have nothing concrete to back that up other than a line from a movie. And it sounded like a good head. But, really, when Jess Jackson opened the door after the Woodward, saying he’s going to have trainers like Dick Mandella keep him informed about the Santa Anita surface, it gave racing fans a ray of hope that maybe it could happen.

With the Classic door now ajar, I can’t help but think of a line in the Academy Award-winning picture “In the Heat of the Night.” Bear with me on this one; I’m taking a circuitous route to get where I’m going.

Police chief Gillespie (Rod Steiger) all but forces Philadelphia homicide detective Virgil Tibbs (Sidney Poitier) to leave Sparta, Miss. after an unsolved murder, because he’s black and a heck of a lot smarter than they are. When Gillespie is told by the mayor, who is pressured by the victim’s wife, to make sure Tibbs stays on the case, Steiger tracks him down at the train station and tries different methods, but is unable to convince him to stay. Finally, he says to him:

“I’m tellin’ you that you're gonna stay…because you’re so damned smart. You’re smarter than any white man. You’re just gonna stay here and show us all. You could never live with yourself unless you could put us all to shame. You wanna know something, Virgil? I don't think that you could let an opportunity like that pass by.”

The more I think of that passage, the more I wonder if Jess Jackson can pass up showing IEAH Stables and Rick Dutrow. Will he be able to live with himself if he doesn’t at least attempt to “put them all to shame” after Dutrow’s brazen comments and being called out by Mike Iavarone. To quote Gillespie -- just substituting names: “You wanna know something, Jess? I don’t think that you could let an opportunity like that pass by.”

Hey, it worked for Gillespie.

I’m not even saying Curlin should run in the Breeders’ Cup. I respect whatever decision Jackson makes and can understand his not wanting to run in the Classic this year. The fact is, neither horse is ducking the other; it’s just a difference in philosophy, nothing more. Each one wants to run against the other but on their terms – Big Brown’s people want the Breeders’ Cup; Curlin’s people want a traditional dirt race. Neither is right and neither is wrong. With that said, would I like to see Curlin in the Classic? Heck, yes, just like everyone else. Considering that Curlin didn’t exactly have jaws dropping over his performance in the Woodward, maybe a switch to synthetic actually would be something he would relish. Who knows?

Look, the bottom line is Curlin won the Woodward, which is the most important thing. But now comes the question: is this as good as he is right now or did he need the Woodward after a seven-week layoff and a 1 3/8-mile turf race to set him up for a scintillating performance in the Jockey Club Gold Cup? Another performance like the Woodward, in which he closed his final eighth in :14 to defeat a 40-1 shot who was coming home his last three-eighths in almost :40, and a switch to synthetic might start looking more attractive.

And what better way to end his career than to knock off Big Brown, possibly Commentator, the best synthetic track horses in the country, Japan’s Casino Drive, and a powerful arsenal from Europe, including Aidan O’Brien’s dynamic duo of Duke of Marmalade and Henrythenavigator, who have won nine Group I stakes this year between them, and English Derby winner New Approach. As Iavarone said, “That would be electric. He has to run in the Classic.”

Well, Jackson doesn’t have to do anything, but when decision time comes, can he let an opportunity like that pass by? What if in Curlin there is a super duper synthetic specialist just waiting to emerge? By the way, Virgil Tibbs did stay and got the job done. And it all ended with an Eclipse, I mean Academy Award.

Jackson has announced that the Jockey Club Gold Cup will be Curlin’s next start, but didn’t mention anything beyond that.

If Jackson does reject the Virgil Tibbs theory, he has basically one option, unless he’s serious about taking a huge gamble and going for the Japan Cup Dirt over a track that normally is like a sandbox. That option is to commit after the Gold Cup to meet Big Brown in the Clark Handicap, which has been suggested here before. That still seems like the most natural place to decide Horse of the Year, even though it’s not as glamorous as the Breeders’ Cup Classic. And even if both horses do run in the Classic, there is no reason why they can’t have a rematch in the Clark four weeks later to settle matters on the dirt.

As for the possibility of sending Curlin to Japan, it is worth noting that 13 horses from the U.S. have competed in the Japan Cup Dirt and 11 of them have finished out of the money. The only winner, Fleetstreet Dancer, won by a nose on a sloppy track. To send a horse who has already traveled to Dubai this year for an extended stay all the way to Japan for a race on Dec. 7 (gee, that date sounds familiar)) to run on such a deep track, that would seem as much or even more of a gamble than trying a synthetic surface.

Curlin Strategy Room

Could it be that the Woodward strategy employed by 40-1 longshot Past the Point provided the formula on how to be competitive with and possibly even defeat Curlin?

First, let’s look at Curlin himself. He is a physical monster – an imposing horse with a massive stride that enables him to run his opponents into the ground. He can just gallop you to death. In the Woodward, that stride wasn’t evident in the stretch. The long extension was missing, and he won the race on will and class more than anything. So, what happened?

Well, here is one theory. Excluding the Preakness, which I’ll get to later, these are Curlin’s previous six-furlong splits: 1:12 3/5, 1:13, 1:12 2/5, 1:15 2/5, 1:12 1/5, 1:12, 1:13 4/5, and 1:14. In last year’s Haskell, in which he finished a dull third, he ran his three-quarters in about 1:11, substantially faster than his other races. In the Woodward, he ran his three-quarters in 1:10 4/5, some three full seconds faster than he ran in his previous two races, and again, substantially faster than all his other races.

So, is Curlin more effective when he doesn’t have to run a fast split for the first three-quarters? When you go slow early, it bunches up the field and puts Curlin within striking distance, which enables him to lay all over you and merely out-pace you to the wire as he did in the Dubai world Cup and Stephen Foster. He just keeps coming and coming, and that’s when he draws off and wins by daylight. It’s just too difficult to match strides with him. Rags to Riches did in the Belmont, but who knows how much the Triple Crown grind combined with a lack of an early racing foundation affected him.

When you run fast early and stretch out the field, it makes Curlin come from farther back and at the same time make a longer and quicker run than he’s used to. Instead of one-pacing you into submission, he is forced to use his speed and make a long sustained run just to make up the ground you’ve put between you and him. That in turn could very well take some of the starch out of his stretch run. If Past the Point, a horse who had only run in one stakes in his career, could almost pull off the upset, what would have happened had a top-class stakes horse with good speed and staying power used those same tactics; one who could have come home in :13 or even :13 2/5 instead of :14 1/5.

In the Dubai World Cup Curlin was right up near the pace in a bunched up field and had an extremely long stretch to draw off from his opponents. That is Curlin’s kind of race. In the Foster, he sat two lengths off a 1:13 2/5 three-quarters and drew off in the stretch. In last year’s Jockey Club Gold Cup, he was able to sit three lengths off a 1:11 3/5 three-quarters, still putting him in his 1:12 1/5 comfort zone. If Lawyer Ron had stretched out the field and made Curlin run a 1:10 4/5, as he did in the Woodward, sure he wouldn’t have as much left at the end, but neither would Curlin. And Curlin would then have had to make up seven lengths instead of three lengths.

This is not meant as a knock on Curlin. He is an exceptional horse who has done exceptional things. But most every major star has a certain weapon or weapons they use, and it’s the job of the opposition to takes those weapons away if possible. Past the Point was able to take Curlin’s main weapon away by blazing a hot trail in front of him and almost pulled off a monumental upset. Yes, Curlin had a rough trip early, which cost him position, but by the backstretch he was out in the clear and running well in hand. He just was given more to do than he likes because he was running faster early than he likes.

This is not to say Curlin can’t beat you staying close to a fast pace, it’s just that he’s never done it before. And I’m just throwing a theory out there based on his past fractional times. In last year’s Preakness, they went 1:09 4/5, with Curlin running a 1:11 1/5. This was the one instance where he won despite going faster than he likes. But that pace cooked Hard Spun, who got stirred up down the backstretch when steered to the outside and took off, making a premature move to the lead. He pretty much collapsed in the stretch, finishing a distant fourth. Curlin was left having to beat another closer in Street Sense and ran the race of his life to rally late and win by a head. In my opinion that is still the best race he’s ever run. It’ll be interesting to see if he can win in that manner again.

One final note: According to the New York Post, there wasn’t a single breakdown on the Saratoga dirt track all meet. The only breakdown of the entire meet occurred on the grass. So, congratulations to NYRA and the track maintenance crew for that. Meanwhile, according to the North County Times and DRF, eight horses died on the Polytrack at the recently concluded Del Mar meet – five in the afternoon and three in the morning…an increase of two from last year.

Off to Kentucky Sunday. See you in a couple of weeks.