Hangin' With Haskin : Optimizer

Haskin's Derby Trail: Thursday Potpourri

Blood-Horse Staff — Thu, 03 May 2012 23:04:00 GMT

The time is getting near. No not the Derby, trying to finally decipher this intricate and confusing puzzle. We’ve made a few more observations this morning that should help, as well as another trip to the paddock.

First, the quote of day goes to who else but Bob Baffert, who drew post 20 with Liaison and post 6 with Bodemeister. Baffert has gotten burned with post positions in the past few years, especially in the Derby with Lookin at Lucky, who had a disastrous trip from the rail.

Baffert, who is recovering from a heart attack, after which he had three stents inserted, said when Liaison drew post 20 he started having nightmares of “bookending” the draw with posts 1 and 20.

“If I had a choice of having three stents put in or drawing post 1 I’d choose the three stents,” Baffert said. “At least I’d have a shot.”

Statistic of the day: In Calvin Borel’s three Derby victories, he faced a total of 58 horses and had to go around a total of only four of them. Considering the different posts, the amount of horses each year, and the traffic jams that unfold, that’s pretty amazing. We’re not saying Borel owns the rail in the Derby and is at home there, but he’s all but taken out a mortgage on it.

Joel Einhorn, of Flushing, N.Y., who won a chance to place a $100,000 bet on one horse in the Kentucky Derby, visited with Dale Romans and posed for a photo with Romans and Dullahan outside the barn. Einhorn, who is playing it as cool as the proverbial cucumber, was on a scouting mission prior to his potential life-altering wager. Romans assured him he wouldn’t trade places with anyone.

When Hansen schooled in the paddock this afternoon, co-owner Dr. Kendall Hansen came in accompanied by a comely young lady holding a Hansen sign. Dr. Hansen then proceeded to toss Hansen dolls to the fans outside the paddock. And so it begins.

Hansen - Photo by Steve Haskin

Some of the horses who caught the eye this morning were Gemologist, a powerful-looking colt with a big stride, who made a striking appearance. Loved the way he came off the track at a full-clip, showing a lot of energy.

Gemologist - Photo by Steve Haskin

As strong as I’ll Have Another has been galloping, he was really motoring around there this morning, close to the rail, seemingly going at a two-minute lick. This colt has been full of energy since he arrived here.

Although he’s going to be a huge longshot and drew the outside post, Liaison keeps looking better every day and has really blossomed here. Loved his gallop this morning; very smooth and just aggressive enough.

Daddy Nose Best and Sabercat schooled in the paddock, and like everything else they do, they were absolutely perfect. Neither of these colts does anything wrong and are dream horses to train. They have super dispositions, look great physically, and we’d be surprised if one of them doesn’t pop off a big effort. Daddy Nose Best, who has had four works over the track, is long-bodied colt with a classic head and a magnificent eye, and we can watch him all day. He’s that kind of horse. Sabercat was ranked No. 5 in our first Derby Watch, so he’s been a colt we’ve been high on for a long time.

Sabercat schooling in the paddock- Photo by Steve Haskin

Daddy Nose Best - Photo by Steve Haskin

Daddy Nose Best - Photo by Steve Haskin

We’ll discuss them and other longshot possibilities and possible exotics in tomorrow’s selection column.

Two horses who got wet yesterday, Union Rags in his gallop and Rousing Sermon in his paddock schooling, both were much improved today.

Union Rags - Photo by Steve Haskin

Perhaps the most striking colt is El Padrino, a magnificent, powerfully made chestnut with a white face. He did get wet in his gallop and during schooling, but he is a Pulpit and it’s possible this is nothing out of the ordinary for him.

Others who schooled well today were Bodemeister and Dullahan. Creative Cause was listed to school before the fourth race, but was a no-show.

Finally, another colt who has been doing better here each day is Alpha, who seems to like this track. His first day here he was gawking at the crowd, but has settled in to a nice routine. And you can’t find any faults with Take Charge Indy, who glides along with his neck bowed, and Optimizer, who has impressed in his works and gallops and overall appearance, even though no one is really paying much attention to him. Nor are they paying much attention to Done Talking, who goes about his business every day in a professional manner.

D. Wayne Lukas escorts Optimizer - Photo by Steve Haskin

Just think, after tomorrow, you won’t have to hear how most of these horses are doing so well. No matter how well they’re doing, some 14 or 15 of them are going to have no impact on the race. And that is very hard to believe.

Haskin's Derby Trail: Revisiting Four for the Weekend

Blood-Horse Staff — Fri, 13 Apr 2012 13:04:00 GMT

Four of our highly touted horses, as early as Oct. 13, 2011 and as recent as April 6, are running this weekend. Two already have the graded earnings to get in the Derby, one needs an in-the-money performance, and one needs to win.

All of them – Holy Candy, Dullahan, Optimizer, and Sabercat – should be good prices, with Holy Candy and Sabercat morning line longshots. We feel all have a legitimate shot to win or are good plays in the exotics.

Rather than rehash everything we like about these four horses, we’re just going to reprint what we’ve written about them and see how many of them can get through the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes and Arkansas Derby and earn their way – monetarily or by accomplishment – into the Kentucky Derby.

HOLY CANDY (Blue Grass Stakes 30-1):

(April 6, 2012) Holy Candy did not defeat much in his maiden victory and his Beyer speed figure was pretty slow compared to the leading 3-year-olds. But here is where the intangibles come in play. From strictly a visual standpoint, his maiden score was arguably the most impressive race by a 3-year-old we’ve seen all year. It was a race you had to see to appreciate.

There was something about his scintillating victory that really caught the eye and made you take notice. His prior races were all good and against some talented horses, but this one was extraordinary. The pace was slow, and he really had no business running down the pacesetter, trained by Baffert, even though he’s certainly not one of Baffert’s top 3-year-olds. But Holy Candy turned in a blistering final half in :46 1/5 and final quarter in :22 4/5, exhibiting a powerful and efficient stride that covered a great deal of ground. He blew by the leader and quickly drew off to win by 3 ½ lengths. By the time he reached the first turn galloping out, he was 15 lengths in front and looked like he wanted to go around again.

It's difficult judging a horse's true ability in a maiden race, and we've seen many spectacular maiden winners regress when they face winners. All we’re saying is that this is a horse to keep a close eye on wherever he winds up running. He could be something special.

DULLAHAN (Blue Grass Stakes 6-1):

(Oct. 13, 2011) It seems a contradiction to the senses to boost the merits of the Breeders’ Futurity, run over Polytrack, and several of its participants. But the feeling here is that we saw a couple of potential stars emerge from the race, whose true talents actually will not be seen until they run on dirt. One of them already has become our live longshot for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and a force for next year’s Kentucky Derby trail.

First, however, let’s address the Futurity winner Dullahan. The first inclination would be to dismiss his chances in the Juvenile, based on his two mediocre performances over the Churchill Downs dirt surface in his first two career starts. That would be a mistake.

All you have to do is watch the Futurity to see that this is a big, scopey, long-striding colt who would not be expected to run big going 5 ½ and six furlongs, the distances of his first two starts. He actually ran OK in those races to finish third and fifth. He improved when stretched out to the grass, finishing a close second in a 1 1/16-mile maiden race at Saratoga and third in the With Anticipation Stakes. We believe the improvement was due to the stretch-out and not the grass. This colt is bred top and bottom for the dirt, being a son of the Unbridled’s Song stallion Even the Score and a half-brother to Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird, and traces to a great Greentree Stud family, most notably Broodmare of the Year Track Medal, a full-sister to Swaps.

He ran decently in sprints on the dirt, improved on the grass, improved even more on the Polytrack, and should improve again when he returns to the dirt going two turns.

The most impressive aspect of his performance in the Breeders’ Futurity was the quick-fire acceleration he showed on the far turn, blowing past horses, despite racing wide four-wide every step of the way. He also was able to sustain his move for five-eighths of a mile, something you don’t often see a 2-year-old do. And finally, he appeared to actually find another gear in the final furlong and seemed to be getting stronger the farther he ran.

So, watch out in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. This performance was legitimate and we may have only seen the tip of the iceberg with this colt.

(March 12, 2012) Surprise! Hey, can’t leave him out of the Juvenile Jackpot after his eye-opening performance in the Palm Beach Stakes. No, he didn’t win, but you could not have asked for a more perfect debut, even if it was on the grass. This was not the same big, long-striding dude from last year who took forever to jump start his engine. Physically, he looked awesome, and as soon as he came out of the gate he got right down into the bit and was able to stay in touch with the field. He settled beautifully down the backside, while maintaining his striking distance. When Desormeaux asked him he showed off his patented quick-burst acceleration and pounced on the favorite Howe Great in a flash, while circling four wide. Here he was with his head in front of a brilliant colt in Howe Great before they even turned for home. In case you want a term for what was just described, it’s called a DIRT move. But it was grass and that is not a winning grass move, especially losing so much ground the whole way. Like last year, he had his head a bit high, but once Desormeaux hit him and he leveled off, he dropped his head and was striding out beautifully in the final furlong, while under no pressure to try to catch the winner. Yet he still was slowly getting to him, despite under no more than a mild hand ride. Oh, did I mention he came home in :22 4/5 and :11 2/5 (:34 1/5 final three-eighths) and ran his 1 1/8 miles in 1:46 3/5?

OPTIMIZER (Arkansas Derby 6-1):

(Oct. 13, 2011) Now, if you’re looking for a horse who was almost or equally as impressive as the winner, but who is going to be a big price in the BC Juvenile and looks like a hot prospect for next year’s Derby trail, then pay close attention to third-place finisher Optimizer, who has unlimited potential.

If you feel he is a grass horse because he is by English Channel and ran big in his first two career starts on the grass you would be dead wrong. English Channel happened to be a grass horse, but wasn’t bred to be a grass horse. Optimizer only raced on grass because trainer Wayne Lukas needed to run him two turns and the only two-turn races for 2-year-olds at Saratoga are on the grass. Lukas believes his dramatic maiden victory and his second in the With Anticipation Stakes, in which the rider lost the whip at the sixteenth pole, were both achieved on class alone. The only reason he ran him in the Breeders’ Futurity on Polytrack was because it was two turns and he was looking to get enough points to make it into the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile field.

This colt worked lights out on the Oklahoma training track and continued to work big on the dirt at Churchill Downs, blowing out a half in :48 breezing for the Breeders’ Futurity, the second fastest of 31 works at the distance.

Optimizer’s female family is a Who’s Who of Phipps family breeding. His dam, Indy Pick (by A.P. Indy), is out of Fantastic Find, winner of the grade I Hempstead and placed in the grade I Test, Ballerina, and Gazelle. Fantastic Find also produced Finder’s Fee, winner of the grade I Acorn and Matron, and who won or placed in 10 other graded stakes.

Fantastic Find’s dam, Blitey (by Kentucky Derby and Belmont winner Riva Ridge), won the Test, Maskette, and Ballerina and produced grade I winners Dancing Spree and Furlough, in addition to Fantastic Find and graded stakes winner Dancing All Night.

Blitey’s dam, Lady Pitt, won the Coaching Club American Oaks, Delaware Oaks, and Mother Goose and was champion 3-year-old filly in 1966.

This is as strong a female family as you’ll find anywhere, and there is no doubt Optimizer will improve the farther he goes. In the Breeders’ Futurity, he was the other horse flying around the far turn, as he rallied from 12th. Unlike the winner, however, he raced greenly through the stretch and got stuck on his left lead. Robby Albarado kept hitting him left-handed and after getting to the outside, the colt finally changed to his right lead. It took him a few strides to find his rhythm, as he continued to race greenly, but once he did he leveled off and began closing in on Dullahan and Majestic City, getting stronger with each stride.

Lukas said he can’t wait to get him on dirt after seeing his action over it in the morning. The colt is still learning what the game is all about, and with his pedigree, powerful stretch kick, and the look of class about him, his future could be limitless. We’ll find out for sure in the Juvenile, a race in which he only needs to move forward to prepare him for the Derby trail.

SABERCAT (Arkansas Derby 15-1):

(Feb. 6, 2012) Last year, he was visually as impressive as anyone. Turned in an electrifying move in the Delta Jackpot and never broke stride despite being taken hold of when he almost ran up over horses. Showed quick turn of foot drawing off in Garden State romp. Likes to run his foes into the ground and put them away quickly, but also can be tenacious, as he showed out-battling the talented My Adonis in maiden race. He’s won three straight, all at a mile or longer. He just needs to improve his speed figures. He’s been galloping at Santa Anita and progressing beautifully for a March debut.

Impressive winner of the Delta Downs Jackpot and Garden State Stakes, he is a son of the promising young stallion Bluegrass Cat, runner-up in the Kentucky Derby, who is out of an A.P. Indy mare and traces to the great Phipps mare Numbered Account. His dam, Miner’s Blessing, is a daughter of Travers and Haskell winner Forty Niner, out of a Halo mare. Miner’s Blessing is a half-sister to Conquistadoress, second in the Ashland and Black-Eyed Susan Stakes. This family is four generations of Stuart Janney Jr. (breeder of Ruffian) and his son Stuart Janney III breeding, and we love old traditional families that span several generations. Prior to Janney, this was a solid Wheatley Stable family that traces to Man O’ War and La Troienne. Sabercat’s dam also is inbred to major stamina influence Tom Rolfe, by Ribot.

(Current comment) His 2012 debut in the Rebel looks terrible on paper, but he was shuffled to the back of the pack early and was way too far back for his style of running. He actually appeared to be moving with good momentum turning into the stretch, but was in some traffic and just couldn’t sustain his run coming off such a long layoff. We feel with a good trip this time you’re going to see big improvement. He doesn’t need to win, but a strong in-the-money performance would certainly send him to Louisville with some kind of a shot.

Other weekend tidbits

If Optimizer and Sabercat don’t pan out at Oaklawn, the Todd Pletcher-trained Stat (10-1) looked terrific winning an allowance/optional claimer, drawing off to an easy win , despite racing greenly and drifting out. Pletcher and John Velazquez at 10-1 looks enticing. Also, Isn’t He Clever with blinkers off could be very tough in here after getting a badly mistimed ride in the Sunland Derby. He still finished 7 ¼ lengths ahead of third-place finisher Stirred Up, who had just beaten Holy Candy. And his sire, Smarty Jones, was the last horse to win the Arkansas Derby and Kentucky Derby.

So You Think, Dude

Blood-Horse Staff — Sat, 29 Oct 2011 22:14:00 GMT

The more you study the past performances of the Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. I) the more scenarios you find. We’re going to concentrate on two horses who we find intriguing in regard to the tactics they should or could employ.

Let’s start first with the pace, and even with the loss of Tizway, the pace on paper looks to be strong and contentious. But it doesn’t necessarily have to be the latter. If you’re riding Game On Dude, what do you do to avoid getting hooked up in a speed duel with Uncle Mo and To Honor and Serve, and to a lesser extent your own stablemate Prayer For Relief?

Uncle Mo’s ability to get a mile and a quarter at this stage of his career, especially coming off only two one-turn races, has been questioned by many and it is assumed his connections would prefer to see him sit off the pace and save as much as possible. To Honor and Serve showed in the Pennsylvania Derby (gr. II) that those tactics suit him as well. The last thing either one wants is to lock horns with Game On Dude, who has proven on several occasions to be a fierce competitor when his blood is up. He likes to play rough and doesn’t give up easily. Look at him as your typical alley fighter who will kick, claw, and bite, and if you choose to fight him, you do so at your own risk.

So, with all that in mind, the strategy for Game On Dude is simple. This is a horse whose worst enemy is restraint. Let him run free and he’ll give you 100% every time. Forget everyone else in the field and just send him to the lead. What he has going for him, in stark contrast to most frontrunners, is his ability to run fast fractions, even at 1 ¼ miles and even under pressure, and still keep going. Such a noble attribute has to be used to good advantage. Chantal Sutherland, who has developed a good relationship with the colt, has to let him go to the lead even if someone is foolhardy enough to try to outrun him.

Again, fractions are of little concern to this horse, and in fact, the faster the better, as odd as that may sound to most. By going fast early he will take all the stalkers out of their comfort zone and make them use themselves just to stay within striking distance. That likely will take away from any closing punch they may have. And as for the deep closers, they’ll be coming, but they will have more ground than usual to make up due to the fast pace, especially if Game On Dude can get some separation in the stretch. It is reassuring to Sutherland and trainer Bob Baffert knowing that even if someone does challenge him in the stretch it’s not going to be easy to get by him.

Remember, his three victories this year have come when he’s run his fastest early fractions -- :46 and 1:09 3/5; :46 3/5 and 1:10 3/5; and :45 1/5 and 1:09. When he was slowed down to 1:13, 1:11 1/5, 1:12, and 1:12 4/5 he’s gotten beat. That is a bit misleading, because the faster races were all over the quick Santa Anita surface, but his fractions were fast enough to still make it a legitimate point. The main rule with all free-running speed horses is never wait and let the closers catch you by the quarter pole, because no matter how much you save for the stretch run you’re not going to out-close them.

That brings us to the intangible horse, So You Think, whose tactics in Europe this year have been all over the place. It is uncertain whether the Ballydoyle Boys know for sure just how this horse wants to be ridden, because he can do a little of everything. But in terms of the Breeders’ Cup Classic, his first ever start on dirt, here is one person’s opinion, based on having watched all his races this year.

First off, like Game On Dude, his is a tough horse to pass in the stretch, and you know he’s going to put up a fight. The only problem is, when he’s taken the lead one-to-two furlongs out he’s gotten beat on two occasions and just narrowly held on to win on another. To his credit, however, both defeats were at Ascot, with its testing uphill run to the finish. Compared to Ascot, Churchill Downs will be a piece of cake.

Only against lesser competition early in the year has he drawn off to win by big margins. In his important showdown against last year’s English Derby (Eng-I) and Arc de Triomphe (Fra-I) winner Workforce in the 1 ¼-mile Coral-Eclipse Stakes (Eng-I), he was kept under cover along the inside for as long as possible, then was pulled out and gamely wore down Workforce, demonstrating his grit and determination and his ability to catch a top-class horse in deep stretch. This was the race that truly defined this horse and what he’s capable of.

Running him in the Arc at a mile and half was a bold move, considering he’d never won going that far. They changed strategy and had him taken to the back of the 16-horse field, while using their Irish Derby (Ire-I) winner and English Derby (Eng-I) runner-up, Treasure Beach, as a pacesetter. No one could have predicted the dominating performance by the German filly Danedream, but So You Think ran a big race, weaving his way through the field in the final two furlongs. He rallied to finish fourth, and was only beaten three-quarters of a length for second. Not only did he demonstrate his closing ability again, this time from far back, he showed a great deal of courage to turn back the challenges to his outside of French group I winners Meandre and Sarafina, who looked as if they were going to blow right by him in tandem. So, he was able to show all his attributes in this one race.

One can question the decision to run him back in two weeks in the Qipco Champion Stakes (Eng-I), but Aidan O’Brien has never stopped raving about this horse’s amazing constitution, so you would have to think coming back in another three weeks will not hurt him. Remember, in Australia last year, he won the 1 ¼-mile Cox Plate, won the 1 ¼-mile MacKinnon Stakes, and finished third in the two-mile Melbourne Cup in the span of 10 days, the last two coming three days apart.

So, taking all this into consideration, it would seem this horse has a lot of leeway when it comes to strategy because of his versatility and high cruising speed. The best plan of attack in the Classic would seem to be to keep away from the likely hot pace and away from Game On Dude and Uncle Mo and run a race something between the Eclipse and Arc, which would put him in midpack, some eight lengths off the lead, depending on the pace, and then have him use that cruising speed and tenacity to pick off horses and wear down the leader or leaders in the final furlong.

If, of course, he loves the dirt and is on the muscle and just happens to take the lead earlier in the stretch, we don’t see anyone catching him. After all, this isn’t Ascot and the final furlong is going to be a lot less taxing on him. In short, there are several options regarding strategy. But taking him back and putting him in position to wear down the leaders in the stretch seems to be the way to go.

The one horse who can put a monkey wrench in anyone’s strategic plans is Uncle Mo, simply because we have no idea how good, or great, this horse is. It’s possible his critics are correct and he’s not able or ready to go a mile and a quarter. And it’s also possible those close to him are correct and he is no ordinary horse, and actually towers above every other horse not only in the Classic, but the country. His Kelso (gr. II) victory was so far beyond anything we’ve seen this year, he just may be capable of anything.

And then of course there is Havre de Grace and Flat Out, and, well, now we’re getting way ahead of ourselves. For now, this is all about Game On Dude and So You Think, the two horses dependent on nothing but their own ability and getting the right trip in order to utilize that ability to its fullest.

Gio goes for the Goldi

So, it looks as if we will never know if Gio Ponti can handle the dirt or if he could have closed out his career in grand style with a Breeders’ Cup Classic victory. All that dirt pedigree and 1 ¼-mile brilliance gone to waste, not to mention the fact that the Churchill Downs dirt track has always been conducive to grass horses. By the way, if it happens to rain next Friday and Saturday and the Churchill turf course turns bog-like, you have to wonder how they will feel about their decision (slop probably would have helped him). But let’s hope that doesn’t happen for his sake and Goldikova’s.

Even several analysts, including Jeff Siegel of HRTV, were ranking Gio Ponto high on their list of Classic contenders once they saw his first preference in that race. Siegel, in fact, had him ranked at No. 5, saying, “I’m not sure I wouldn’t be taking a shot at (the Classic). Who knows how good he’d go on dirt, especially at a mile and a quarter?”

Trying and failing would have had no effect on the horse’s legacy or popularity as a stallion, but not knowing what he could have done is regrettable, at least to one person. Anyway, we tried. Now we can only wish him good luck in the Mile. If anyone can beat Goldikova and still remain popular it is Gio Ponti, who has a long list of admirers himself.

Bye, bye Turf

It was a smart move to knock the Turf out of its traditional spot right before the Classic and replace it this year with the Mile in order to give Goldikova a primetime spot. The Turf in recent years has lost its relevance as a top international race, with the decline of the American turf horse and the race becoming pretty much a playground for Europeans. This year, Europe will have the top five favorites. Oh, and by the way, they have won nine of the last 11 runnings, not counting the dead-heat between Ireland’s High Chaparral and America’s Johar in 2003. The ultimate embarrassment was Cape Blanco making an unprecedented three transatlantic trips to America and winning three of its most prestigious grade I stakes – the Man o’War, Arlington Million, and Joe Hirsch Turf Classic. Now it is up to Dean’s Kitten, Brilliant Speed, Teaks North, and Stately Victor to defend whatever honor remains of the American grass horse. Teaks North did defeat Euro invaders Chinchon and Stacelita in the United Nations (gr. IT), but did not fare well in his only attempt at 1 ½ miles, and Dean’s Kitten came within a nose of beating Cape Blanco in the Turf Classic, so there is a slight glimmer of hope.

Bombs away

We still haven’t deviated from our original longshot selections published a couple of weeks ago. We’ll go into more detail next Friday, but the megabomb specials remain, Miss Match (Ladies Classic), Ruler On Ice (Classic), Cambina (Filly & Mare Turf), Champagne d’Oro (Filly & Mare Sprint), Optimizer (main pick) and Take Charge Indy (Juvenile), and Caracortado (Turf Sprint; liked him originally for the Mile, but will stick with him here, despite the 5 furlongs). Also taking a long look at Tapizar for the Dirt Mile; one of the most impressive 3-year-olds we’ve seen this year before he got knocked off the Derby trail with an injury.

Juvy Sprint an inauspicious opener

The new Juvenile Sprint field makes for kind of an odd opener to the Breeders’ Cup festivities. Not only will no more than 10 go to the post, but the six-furlong race attracted mainly a mish mash of horses highlighted by a horse who could wind up the shortest BC favorite of the two days, despite having won only a listed stakes. The race failed to attract the winners of any of the recognized major six-furlong sprint stakes for juveniles, and can be summed up in a simple question: can anyone hope to outrun the Bob Baffert-trained bullet, Secret Circle, whose two Beyer speed figures dwarf all the others? It is highly unlikely if he runs anywhere close to those figures. In addition to Secret Circle, the race pretty much boils down to the first three finishers of the revamped Nashua Stakes (gr. II) and the second- and third-place finishers of the Kip Deville Stakes at Remington Park.

Why?

-- Why would Bob Baffert run The Factor in the Sprint (gr. I) when he has Euroears, and those two would likely kill each other off? Also, The Factor would be the controlling speed in the Dirt Mile (gr. I), assuming Sidney’s Candy goes in the Mile, which brings us to the next question.

-- Why would Sidney’s Candy run in the Dirt Mile when he’s been beaten a total of 68 lengths in his only two starts on dirt?

-- Why not run Switch in the Ladies Classic when she’s been a close second in two-turn races to Zenyatta, Blind Luck, and Havre de Grace? Then again, she’s also pretty darn good at seven furlongs. Tough decision.

-- Why can’t Caracortado win at five furlongs when he is undefeated in four starts going 6 ½ furlongs and shorter? He’s won at 4 ½ furlongs on dirt, six furlongs on synthetic and grass, and 6 ½ furlongs on synthetic.

-- Why isn’t anyone talking about Grace Hall in the Juvenile Fillies (gr. I)? All the talk is about My Miss Aurelia and Weemissfrankie, but this filly is also undefeated in three starts, also is a grade I winner, and has won going two turns under wraps.

-- Why can’t a filly win the Marathon this year? Meeznah has a ton of class and stamina, having won group races at 1 13/16 miles and 1 ¾ miles and was beaten a neck in last year’s English Oaks. And she is by Dynaformer.

Countdown to the Cup: Beware Of Keeneland Kiddies

Blood-Horse Staff — Thu, 13 Oct 2011 15:46:00 GMT

It seems a contradiction to the senses to boost the merits of the Breeders’ Futurity, run over Polytrack, and several of its participants. But the feeling here is that we saw a couple of potential stars emerge from the race, whose true talents actually will not be seen until they run on dirt. One of them already has become our live longshot for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and a force for next year’s Kentucky Derby trail.

First, however, let’s address the Futurity winner Dullahan. The first inclination would be to dismiss his chances in the Juvenile, based on his two mediocre performances over the Churchill Downs dirt surface in his first two career starts. That would be a mistake.

All you have to do is watch the Futurity to see that this is a big, scopey, long-striding colt who would not be expected to run big going 5 ½ and six furlongs, the distances of his first two starts. He actually ran OK in those races to finish third and fifth. He improved when stretched out to the grass, finishing a close second in a 1 1/16-mile maiden race at Saratoga and third in the With Anticipation Stakes. We believe the improvement was due to the stretch-out and not the grass. This colt is bred top and bottom for the dirt, being a son of the Unbridled’s Song stallion Even the Score and a half-brother to Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird, and traces to a great Greentree Stud family, most notably Broodmare of the Year Track Medal, a full-sister to Swaps.

He ran decently in sprints on the dirt, improved on the grass, improved even more on the Polytrack, and should improve again when he returns to the dirt going two turns.

The most impressive aspect of his performance in the Breeders’ Futurity was the quick-fire acceleration he showed on the far turn, blowing past horses, despite racing wide four-wide every step of the way. He also was able to sustain his move for five-eighths of a mile, something you don’t often see a 2-year-old do. And finally, he appeared to actually find another gear in the final furlong and seemed to be getting stronger the farther he ran.

So, watch out in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. This performance was legitimate and we may have only seen the tip of the iceberg with this colt.

Now, if you’re looking for a horse who was almost or equally as impressive as the winner, but who is going to be a big price in the BC Juvenile and looks like a hot prospect for next year’s Derby trail, then pay close attention to third-place finisher Optimizer, who has unlimited potential.

If you feel he is a grass horse because he is by English Channel and ran big in his first two career starts on the grass you would be dead wrong. English Channel happened to be a grass horse, but wasn’t bred to be a grass horse. Optimizer only raced on grass because trainer Wayne Lukas needed to run him two turns and the only two-turn races for 2-year-olds at Saratoga are on the grass. Lukas believes his dramatic maiden victory and his second in the With Anticipation Stakes, in which the rider lost the whip at the sixteenth pole, were both achieved on class alone. The only reason he ran him in the Breeders’ Futurity on Polytrack was because it was two turns and he was looking to get enough points to make it into the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile field.

This colt worked lights out on the Oklahoma training track and continued to work big on the dirt at Churchill Downs, blowing out a half in :48 breezing for the Breeders’ Futurity, the second fastest of 31 works at the distance.

Optimizer’s female family is a Who’s Who of Phipps family breeding. His dam, Indy Pick (by A.P. Indy), is out of Fantastic Find, winner of the grade I Hempstead and placed in the grade I Test, Ballerina, and Gazelle. Fantastic Find also produced Finder’s Fee, winner of the grade I Acorn and Matron, and who won or placed in 10 other graded stakes.

Fantastic Find’s dam, Blitey (by Kentucky Derby and Belmont winner Riva Ridge), won the Test, Maskette, and Ballerina and produced grade I winners Dancing Spree and Furlough, in addition to Fantastic Find and graded stakes winner Dancing All Night.

Blitey’s dam, Lady Pitt, won the Coaching Club American Oaks, Delaware Oaks, and Molther Goose and was champion 3-year-old filly in 1966.

This is as strong a female family as you’ll find anywhere, and there is no doubt Optimizer will improve the farther he goes. In the Breeders’ Futurity, he was the other horse flying around the far turn, as he rallied from 12th. Unlike the winner, however, he raced greenly through the stretch and got stuck on his left lead. Robby Albarado kept hitting him left-handed and after getting to the outside, the colt finally changed to his right lead. It took him a few strides to find his rhythm, as he continued to race greenly, but once he did he leveled off and began closing in on Dullahan and Majestic City, getting stronger with each stride.

Lukas said he can’t wait to get him on dirt after seeing his action over it in the morning. The colt is still learning what the game is all about, and with his pedigree, powerful stretch kick, and the look of class about him, his future could be limitless. We’ll find out for sure in the Juvenile, a race in which he only needs to move forward to prepare him for the Derby trail.

Two other horses coming out of the Breeders’ Futurity who should improve next time out on dirt are Take Charge Indy (fourth) and Shared Property (sixth).

Dullahan's trainer, Dale Romans, has a 2-year-old colt he believes is freaky fast and is excited about getting him in the BC Juvenile Sprint. His name is Me and My Gals and he blew the doors off his opponents in his career debut at Hoosier Park, winning by 8 1/4 lengths in a blistering 1:08 4/5. The son of Sky Mesa, out of an Unbridled mare cost $180,000 at the Keeneland September yearling sale. He currently is tearing up the track in the morning at Churchill Downs.

Early BC bombing raid

It’s never too early to search for longshots in the Breeders’ Cup, so here are a few bombs who might be ready for a big effort, assuming, of course, the Breeders’ Cup is in their plans.

MISS MATCH (Ladies Classic) – Not many people noticed her fourth-place finish against the boys in the Goodwood, in which she came from last, 13 lengths out of it, to be beaten 5 ¼ lengths by Game On Dude, coming home her final eighth in :12 1/5. Although inconsistent at times, she was beaten only three-quarters of a length by Blind Luck and a neck by Switch in the Vanity Handicap. Earlier in the year, she upset Switch in the grade I Santa Margarita at 45-1. She is having her best year at age 6 after being sent to Neil Drysdale. She reminds us a little of Life is Sweet, winner of the 2009 Ladies Classic. On her best day, she could be a stretch threat at a big price, but also has the versatility to stay within striking distance of the pace if they slow it down.

CHAMPAGNE D’ORO (F&M Sprint) – It’s true she’s winless since last year’s Test Stakes and has been a big disappointment, considering the roll she was on last spring. But it is possible her last start, the Lady’s Secret, was a wake-up race that could set her up for a top effort in the F&M Sprint. Her two biggest wins have some in grade Is at seven furlongs and one mile, and after setting a strong pace in the 1 1/8-mile Lady’s Secret, opening up a two-length lead at the eighth pole, and finishing fourth, beaten 4 ¼ lengths, she just might relish the drop back to one turn and have enough foundation under her to press the pace and keep going. She did finish fourth in this race last year as the 4-1 favorite, pressing a fast pace from the 13-post.

CAMBINA (F&M Turf) – Her fifth-place finish in the Yellow Ribbon Stakes was completely lost behind the excellent performances of Dubawi Heights, Cozi Rosie, and Harmonious, all legitimate threats in the F&M Turf. This Irish-bred daughter of Hawk Wing is one of the most versatile and consistent turf fillies in the country, having won stakes at 6 ½ furlongs and 1 ¼ miles, and she is always flying at the end, regardless of the distance. She’s also won stakes at one mile and 1 1/8 miles, so there is little she can’t do. In the Yellow Ribbon, she was ridden for the first time by Pat Valenzuela and got going a little too late, closing from last to finish fifth, beaten 2 ½ lengths, coming home her final quarter in :22 4/5. Considering the price she’ll be in the BC, you know you’ll get a big run from her.

CARACORTADO (Mile or Turf Sprint) – The Mile is a pretty tough spot for him, but he’d be going into the race fresh and has shown his class on numerous occasions. He’s sort of a forgotten horse, not having started since winning the Del Mar Mile. His races at a mile have been excellent, all in top-class company, and was beaten a neck by Courageous Cat in the Shoemaker Mile in 1:33 flat. He never runs a bad race, and if he handles the Churchill Downs turf he should be coming fast at the end. We’re familiar with the leading contenders, but he is a bit of an unknown, shipping east with an excellent resume. If they decide on the Turf Sprint, then he adds a whole new dimension and would need a blistering pace. But he is more than capable of picking them off late in that race as well.

MISS NETTA (Juvenile Fillies) – Overcame a horrendous start in the Frizette, falling more than 17 lengths off the pace, to finish third. Although she was beaten nine lengths, she was almost three lengths ahead of the fourth horse. By Street Sense, out of a Dynaformer mare, she will run all day and should appreciate the stretch-out to two turns. The fact that she was precocious enough to win her career debut at Saratoga on the front end going six furlongs indicates she could have bright future.

A Dullahan by any other name

Dullahan sounds very Irish and very melodic or the name of an Irish cop or priest. But in truth, the name is as bizarre and creepy as you can get.

From Wikipedia: (Dullahan) is headless fairy, usually seen riding a black horse and carrying his or her head under one arm. The head's eyes are massive and constantly dart about like flies, while the mouth is constantly in a hideous grin that touches both sides of the head. The flesh of the head is said to have the color and consistency of moldy cheese. The dullahan's whip is actually a human corpse's spine, and the wagons they sometimes use are made of similarly funereal objects (e.g. candles in skulls to light the way, the spokes of the wheels made from thigh bones, the wagon's covering made from a worm-chewn pall). When the dullahan stops riding, it is where a person is due to die. The dullahan calls out their name, at which point they immediately perish.

Yikes.