Hangin' With Haskin : Sabercat

Haskin's Derby Trail: Thursday Potpourri

Blood-Horse Staff — Thu, 03 May 2012 23:04:00 GMT

The time is getting near. No not the Derby, trying to finally decipher this intricate and confusing puzzle. We’ve made a few more observations this morning that should help, as well as another trip to the paddock.

First, the quote of day goes to who else but Bob Baffert, who drew post 20 with Liaison and post 6 with Bodemeister. Baffert has gotten burned with post positions in the past few years, especially in the Derby with Lookin at Lucky, who had a disastrous trip from the rail.

Baffert, who is recovering from a heart attack, after which he had three stents inserted, said when Liaison drew post 20 he started having nightmares of “bookending” the draw with posts 1 and 20.

“If I had a choice of having three stents put in or drawing post 1 I’d choose the three stents,” Baffert said. “At least I’d have a shot.”

Statistic of the day: In Calvin Borel’s three Derby victories, he faced a total of 58 horses and had to go around a total of only four of them. Considering the different posts, the amount of horses each year, and the traffic jams that unfold, that’s pretty amazing. We’re not saying Borel owns the rail in the Derby and is at home there, but he’s all but taken out a mortgage on it.

Joel Einhorn, of Flushing, N.Y., who won a chance to place a $100,000 bet on one horse in the Kentucky Derby, visited with Dale Romans and posed for a photo with Romans and Dullahan outside the barn. Einhorn, who is playing it as cool as the proverbial cucumber, was on a scouting mission prior to his potential life-altering wager. Romans assured him he wouldn’t trade places with anyone.

When Hansen schooled in the paddock this afternoon, co-owner Dr. Kendall Hansen came in accompanied by a comely young lady holding a Hansen sign. Dr. Hansen then proceeded to toss Hansen dolls to the fans outside the paddock. And so it begins.

Hansen - Photo by Steve Haskin

Some of the horses who caught the eye this morning were Gemologist, a powerful-looking colt with a big stride, who made a striking appearance. Loved the way he came off the track at a full-clip, showing a lot of energy.

Gemologist - Photo by Steve Haskin

As strong as I’ll Have Another has been galloping, he was really motoring around there this morning, close to the rail, seemingly going at a two-minute lick. This colt has been full of energy since he arrived here.

Although he’s going to be a huge longshot and drew the outside post, Liaison keeps looking better every day and has really blossomed here. Loved his gallop this morning; very smooth and just aggressive enough.

Daddy Nose Best and Sabercat schooled in the paddock, and like everything else they do, they were absolutely perfect. Neither of these colts does anything wrong and are dream horses to train. They have super dispositions, look great physically, and we’d be surprised if one of them doesn’t pop off a big effort. Daddy Nose Best, who has had four works over the track, is long-bodied colt with a classic head and a magnificent eye, and we can watch him all day. He’s that kind of horse. Sabercat was ranked No. 5 in our first Derby Watch, so he’s been a colt we’ve been high on for a long time.

Sabercat schooling in the paddock- Photo by Steve Haskin

Daddy Nose Best - Photo by Steve Haskin

Daddy Nose Best - Photo by Steve Haskin

We’ll discuss them and other longshot possibilities and possible exotics in tomorrow’s selection column.

Two horses who got wet yesterday, Union Rags in his gallop and Rousing Sermon in his paddock schooling, both were much improved today.

Union Rags - Photo by Steve Haskin

Perhaps the most striking colt is El Padrino, a magnificent, powerfully made chestnut with a white face. He did get wet in his gallop and during schooling, but he is a Pulpit and it’s possible this is nothing out of the ordinary for him.

Others who schooled well today were Bodemeister and Dullahan. Creative Cause was listed to school before the fourth race, but was a no-show.

Finally, another colt who has been doing better here each day is Alpha, who seems to like this track. His first day here he was gawking at the crowd, but has settled in to a nice routine. And you can’t find any faults with Take Charge Indy, who glides along with his neck bowed, and Optimizer, who has impressed in his works and gallops and overall appearance, even though no one is really paying much attention to him. Nor are they paying much attention to Done Talking, who goes about his business every day in a professional manner.

D. Wayne Lukas escorts Optimizer - Photo by Steve Haskin

Just think, after tomorrow, you won’t have to hear how most of these horses are doing so well. No matter how well they’re doing, some 14 or 15 of them are going to have no impact on the race. And that is very hard to believe.

Haskin's Derby Trail: Revisiting Four for the Weekend

Blood-Horse Staff — Fri, 13 Apr 2012 13:04:00 GMT

Four of our highly touted horses, as early as Oct. 13, 2011 and as recent as April 6, are running this weekend. Two already have the graded earnings to get in the Derby, one needs an in-the-money performance, and one needs to win.

All of them – Holy Candy, Dullahan, Optimizer, and Sabercat – should be good prices, with Holy Candy and Sabercat morning line longshots. We feel all have a legitimate shot to win or are good plays in the exotics.

Rather than rehash everything we like about these four horses, we’re just going to reprint what we’ve written about them and see how many of them can get through the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes and Arkansas Derby and earn their way – monetarily or by accomplishment – into the Kentucky Derby.

HOLY CANDY (Blue Grass Stakes 30-1):

(April 6, 2012) Holy Candy did not defeat much in his maiden victory and his Beyer speed figure was pretty slow compared to the leading 3-year-olds. But here is where the intangibles come in play. From strictly a visual standpoint, his maiden score was arguably the most impressive race by a 3-year-old we’ve seen all year. It was a race you had to see to appreciate.

There was something about his scintillating victory that really caught the eye and made you take notice. His prior races were all good and against some talented horses, but this one was extraordinary. The pace was slow, and he really had no business running down the pacesetter, trained by Baffert, even though he’s certainly not one of Baffert’s top 3-year-olds. But Holy Candy turned in a blistering final half in :46 1/5 and final quarter in :22 4/5, exhibiting a powerful and efficient stride that covered a great deal of ground. He blew by the leader and quickly drew off to win by 3 ½ lengths. By the time he reached the first turn galloping out, he was 15 lengths in front and looked like he wanted to go around again.

It's difficult judging a horse's true ability in a maiden race, and we've seen many spectacular maiden winners regress when they face winners. All we’re saying is that this is a horse to keep a close eye on wherever he winds up running. He could be something special.

DULLAHAN (Blue Grass Stakes 6-1):

(Oct. 13, 2011) It seems a contradiction to the senses to boost the merits of the Breeders’ Futurity, run over Polytrack, and several of its participants. But the feeling here is that we saw a couple of potential stars emerge from the race, whose true talents actually will not be seen until they run on dirt. One of them already has become our live longshot for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and a force for next year’s Kentucky Derby trail.

First, however, let’s address the Futurity winner Dullahan. The first inclination would be to dismiss his chances in the Juvenile, based on his two mediocre performances over the Churchill Downs dirt surface in his first two career starts. That would be a mistake.

All you have to do is watch the Futurity to see that this is a big, scopey, long-striding colt who would not be expected to run big going 5 ½ and six furlongs, the distances of his first two starts. He actually ran OK in those races to finish third and fifth. He improved when stretched out to the grass, finishing a close second in a 1 1/16-mile maiden race at Saratoga and third in the With Anticipation Stakes. We believe the improvement was due to the stretch-out and not the grass. This colt is bred top and bottom for the dirt, being a son of the Unbridled’s Song stallion Even the Score and a half-brother to Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird, and traces to a great Greentree Stud family, most notably Broodmare of the Year Track Medal, a full-sister to Swaps.

He ran decently in sprints on the dirt, improved on the grass, improved even more on the Polytrack, and should improve again when he returns to the dirt going two turns.

The most impressive aspect of his performance in the Breeders’ Futurity was the quick-fire acceleration he showed on the far turn, blowing past horses, despite racing wide four-wide every step of the way. He also was able to sustain his move for five-eighths of a mile, something you don’t often see a 2-year-old do. And finally, he appeared to actually find another gear in the final furlong and seemed to be getting stronger the farther he ran.

So, watch out in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. This performance was legitimate and we may have only seen the tip of the iceberg with this colt.

(March 12, 2012) Surprise! Hey, can’t leave him out of the Juvenile Jackpot after his eye-opening performance in the Palm Beach Stakes. No, he didn’t win, but you could not have asked for a more perfect debut, even if it was on the grass. This was not the same big, long-striding dude from last year who took forever to jump start his engine. Physically, he looked awesome, and as soon as he came out of the gate he got right down into the bit and was able to stay in touch with the field. He settled beautifully down the backside, while maintaining his striking distance. When Desormeaux asked him he showed off his patented quick-burst acceleration and pounced on the favorite Howe Great in a flash, while circling four wide. Here he was with his head in front of a brilliant colt in Howe Great before they even turned for home. In case you want a term for what was just described, it’s called a DIRT move. But it was grass and that is not a winning grass move, especially losing so much ground the whole way. Like last year, he had his head a bit high, but once Desormeaux hit him and he leveled off, he dropped his head and was striding out beautifully in the final furlong, while under no pressure to try to catch the winner. Yet he still was slowly getting to him, despite under no more than a mild hand ride. Oh, did I mention he came home in :22 4/5 and :11 2/5 (:34 1/5 final three-eighths) and ran his 1 1/8 miles in 1:46 3/5?

OPTIMIZER (Arkansas Derby 6-1):

(Oct. 13, 2011) Now, if you’re looking for a horse who was almost or equally as impressive as the winner, but who is going to be a big price in the BC Juvenile and looks like a hot prospect for next year’s Derby trail, then pay close attention to third-place finisher Optimizer, who has unlimited potential.

If you feel he is a grass horse because he is by English Channel and ran big in his first two career starts on the grass you would be dead wrong. English Channel happened to be a grass horse, but wasn’t bred to be a grass horse. Optimizer only raced on grass because trainer Wayne Lukas needed to run him two turns and the only two-turn races for 2-year-olds at Saratoga are on the grass. Lukas believes his dramatic maiden victory and his second in the With Anticipation Stakes, in which the rider lost the whip at the sixteenth pole, were both achieved on class alone. The only reason he ran him in the Breeders’ Futurity on Polytrack was because it was two turns and he was looking to get enough points to make it into the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile field.

This colt worked lights out on the Oklahoma training track and continued to work big on the dirt at Churchill Downs, blowing out a half in :48 breezing for the Breeders’ Futurity, the second fastest of 31 works at the distance.

Optimizer’s female family is a Who’s Who of Phipps family breeding. His dam, Indy Pick (by A.P. Indy), is out of Fantastic Find, winner of the grade I Hempstead and placed in the grade I Test, Ballerina, and Gazelle. Fantastic Find also produced Finder’s Fee, winner of the grade I Acorn and Matron, and who won or placed in 10 other graded stakes.

Fantastic Find’s dam, Blitey (by Kentucky Derby and Belmont winner Riva Ridge), won the Test, Maskette, and Ballerina and produced grade I winners Dancing Spree and Furlough, in addition to Fantastic Find and graded stakes winner Dancing All Night.

Blitey’s dam, Lady Pitt, won the Coaching Club American Oaks, Delaware Oaks, and Mother Goose and was champion 3-year-old filly in 1966.

This is as strong a female family as you’ll find anywhere, and there is no doubt Optimizer will improve the farther he goes. In the Breeders’ Futurity, he was the other horse flying around the far turn, as he rallied from 12th. Unlike the winner, however, he raced greenly through the stretch and got stuck on his left lead. Robby Albarado kept hitting him left-handed and after getting to the outside, the colt finally changed to his right lead. It took him a few strides to find his rhythm, as he continued to race greenly, but once he did he leveled off and began closing in on Dullahan and Majestic City, getting stronger with each stride.

Lukas said he can’t wait to get him on dirt after seeing his action over it in the morning. The colt is still learning what the game is all about, and with his pedigree, powerful stretch kick, and the look of class about him, his future could be limitless. We’ll find out for sure in the Juvenile, a race in which he only needs to move forward to prepare him for the Derby trail.

SABERCAT (Arkansas Derby 15-1):

(Feb. 6, 2012) Last year, he was visually as impressive as anyone. Turned in an electrifying move in the Delta Jackpot and never broke stride despite being taken hold of when he almost ran up over horses. Showed quick turn of foot drawing off in Garden State romp. Likes to run his foes into the ground and put them away quickly, but also can be tenacious, as he showed out-battling the talented My Adonis in maiden race. He’s won three straight, all at a mile or longer. He just needs to improve his speed figures. He’s been galloping at Santa Anita and progressing beautifully for a March debut.

Impressive winner of the Delta Downs Jackpot and Garden State Stakes, he is a son of the promising young stallion Bluegrass Cat, runner-up in the Kentucky Derby, who is out of an A.P. Indy mare and traces to the great Phipps mare Numbered Account. His dam, Miner’s Blessing, is a daughter of Travers and Haskell winner Forty Niner, out of a Halo mare. Miner’s Blessing is a half-sister to Conquistadoress, second in the Ashland and Black-Eyed Susan Stakes. This family is four generations of Stuart Janney Jr. (breeder of Ruffian) and his son Stuart Janney III breeding, and we love old traditional families that span several generations. Prior to Janney, this was a solid Wheatley Stable family that traces to Man O’ War and La Troienne. Sabercat’s dam also is inbred to major stamina influence Tom Rolfe, by Ribot.

(Current comment) His 2012 debut in the Rebel looks terrible on paper, but he was shuffled to the back of the pack early and was way too far back for his style of running. He actually appeared to be moving with good momentum turning into the stretch, but was in some traffic and just couldn’t sustain his run coming off such a long layoff. We feel with a good trip this time you’re going to see big improvement. He doesn’t need to win, but a strong in-the-money performance would certainly send him to Louisville with some kind of a shot.

Other weekend tidbits

If Optimizer and Sabercat don’t pan out at Oaklawn, the Todd Pletcher-trained Stat (10-1) looked terrific winning an allowance/optional claimer, drawing off to an easy win , despite racing greenly and drifting out. Pletcher and John Velazquez at 10-1 looks enticing. Also, Isn’t He Clever with blinkers off could be very tough in here after getting a badly mistimed ride in the Sunland Derby. He still finished 7 ¼ lengths ahead of third-place finisher Stirred Up, who had just beaten Holy Candy. And his sire, Smarty Jones, was the last horse to win the Arkansas Derby and Kentucky Derby.

Haskin's Derby Trail: It's All in the Blood

Blood-Horse Staff — Sun, 22 Jan 2012 01:29:00 GMT

How big a role does pedigree play nowadays in determining the Kentucky Derby winner? With fewer stamina-oriented stallions, there was for a while more of a tendency to look at the female family in determining a horse’s chances of getting a mile and a quarter, knowing that speed-oriented stallions such as Boundary (Big Brown), Elusive Quality (Smarty Jones), and to a lesser degree Holy Bull (Giacomo) were capable of siring a Derby winner. Last year, speed over stamina was again the equation, but with grass horses Leroidesanimaux and the German-bred stamina specialist Acatenango.

But when you can find a strong female family to go with a sure-fire stamina stallion, such as Street Cry (Street Sense), Dynaformer (Barbaro), Birdstone (Mine That Bird), and Maria’s Mon (Super Saver), it has to boost one’s confidence level when ferreting out that elusive Derby winner.

So, each year, we still look for those royal pedigrees to assure us that a horse will have no problem at a mile and a quarter.

This year, unlike most years, the vast majority of Derby contenders are bred to go a mile and a quarter, making it more difficult in eliminating potential pretenders.

The following is a “Derby Dozen” in alphabetical order of our favorite 2012 contenders based on pedigree.

ALGORITHMS – This smooth-striding colt has a wonderful blend of speed and stamina, with the emphasis on stamina. Undefeated in two starts, he will stretch out from 6 ½ furlongs to a mile in next weekend’s Holy Bull Stakes. By Bernardini, out of a Cryptoclearance mare, that all but assures his ability to go 10 furlongs, even though he is a half-brother to sprinters Justin Philip and Keyed Entry, both of whom are by speed-oriented stallions. Second dam, Ava Romance, is by Belmont Stakes winner Avatar, a son of the classic Graustark. The female family gets a good deal of its speed from tail-female fourth generation sire Gallant Romeo, one of the more versatile stallions of his era. He passed on incredible speed to sprint champion Gallant Bob and to the great My Juliet, a champion sprinter who also defeated the colts in the nine-furlong Michigan Mile and an Eighth. Gallant Romeo also sired Preakness winner Elocutionist and Hollywood Oaks winner Nicosia, who equaled the track record for 1 1/4 miles at Arlington Park in the Sheridan Handicap. Algorithms is inbred 3x4 to Dr. Fager’s grandson Fappiano, one of the most influential stallions of modern times.

ALPHA – Winner of the Count Fleet Stakes and runner-up in the Champagne. Another son of Bernardini, he is out of the Nijinsky mare Munnaya, winner of the English Oaks Trial at 1 3/8 miles. Second dam, Hiaam, is a half-sister to multiple grade I winner Gorgeous, as well as Queen’s Plate winner and Canadian 3-year-old champion Key to the Moon and Kentucky Oaks winner Seaside Attraction, dam of 2-year-old filly champion Golden Attraction and Florida Derby winner Cape Town. Third dam, Kamar, by Key to the Mint, out of a Quadrangle mare, won the Canadian Oaks.

CASUAL TRICK – Finished a game second in the 1 1/16-mile Gulfstream Park Derby in only his third career start and first start after breaking his maiden sprinting. Still another son of Bernardini, he is out of English Oaks winner Casual Look, a daughter of Red Ransom, sire of Dubai World Cup winner Electrocutionist. His second dam, Style Setter, is a daughter of grass champion and Hall of Famer Manila. Third dam, Frizette winner Charleston Rag, is by General Assembly, a son of Secretariat who ran the second fastest Vosburgh (1:21) of all time and the fastest Travers (2:00 flat) of all time. He also is inbred to Secretariat through Weekend Surprise (dam of A.P. Indy).

CONSORTIUM – And the Bernardinis just keep on coming. He is scheduled to meet Agorithms and 2-year-old champ Hansen in the Holy Bull after finishing second to the former in an allowance race. He is out of Arlington Oaks and Iowa Oaks winner Marietta, by Machiavellian. Second dam, Minister Wife, won the Demoiselle Stakes. Third dam, Dowery, was a graded stakes winner who placed in the Spinster, and is a half-sister to grade I winner and $800,000 earner Reluctant Guest. Fourth dam, Vaguely Royal, is a daughter of major stamina influence Vaguely Noble.

CREATIVE CAUSE – Won the Norfolk Stakes going away and was a close third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Love his sire, Giant’s Causeway, and his female family, while devoid of major influences, is loaded with stamina through broodmare sire Siberian Summer, winner of the 1 ¼-mile Charles H. Strub Stakes, and tail-female stallions Skywalker, winner of the Breeders’ Cup Classic, Relaunch, and Properantes, winner of the 1 ¾-mile San Juan Capistrano. With In Reality and Rising Market in his female family he has inbreeding twice to Man O’ War (through War Relic twice, War Admiral, and American Flag).

El PADRINO – Impressive maiden winner came back to finish a close third in the Remsen Stakes. He is by Pulpit, out of the Giant’s Causeway mare Enchanted Rock, a half-sister to grade II Ladies Handicap winner Tara Roma and grade II True North Handicap winner Waldoboro. His second dam, Chic Shirine, a full-sister to champion mare Queena, won the grade I Ashland Stakes and is out of Too Chic, winner of the grade I Maskette Stakes and second in the Alabama. His fourth dam, Remedia, is by Dr. Fager, out of Monade, winner of the English Oaks and runner-up in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe who was voted 3-year-old filly champion in Europe and champion older mare in France the following year.

LIAISON – Winner of the CashCall Futurity and Real Quiet Stakes. Although Uncle Mo was not considered a mile and a quarter horse, mainly because of his sire Indian Charlie, there is absolutely no reason why Indian Charlie cannot sire a Derby horse, especially with the right dam. Indian Charlie is by In Excess, who ran the fastest mile and a quarter (1:58 1/5) in the history of New York racing. And this tenacious colt definitely has the right dam, Galloping Gal, a multiple stakes winner at 1 1/16 miles who is by Belmont Stakes winner Victory Gallop. His third dam, Indy Flash, is a daughter of A.P. Indy, out of a mare by Calumet Farm’s Gleaming (a son of major distance influence Herbager), who won or placed in multiple 1 ½-mile stakes on the grass. Liaison’s tail-female family traces back five generations of Calumet Farm breeding to Bull Lea (two times) through his Hall of Fame daughters Real Delight and Twilight Tear.

RUSSIAN GREEK – Winner of the California Derby and Gold Rush Stakes. This son of Giant’s Causeway is out of a Grindstone mare. Second dam, Train Robbery, is a multiple graded stakes winner by Alydar, out of Track Robbery, a three-time grade I winner and champion older mare. Breeders should love Russian Greek, who is a complete outcross through his first five generations, where he is represented by seven Kentucky Derby winners.

SABERCAT – Impressive winner of the Delta Downs Jackpot and Garden State Stakes, he is a son of the promising young stallion Bluegrass Cat, runner-up in the Kentucky Derby, who is out of an A.P. Indy mare and traces to the great Phipps mare Numbered Account. His dam, Miner’s Blessing, is a daughter of Travers and Haskell winner Forty Niner, out of a Halo mare. Miner’s Blessing is a half-sister to Conquistadoress, second in the Ashland and Black-Eyed Susan Stakes. This family is four generations of Stuart Janney Jr. (breeder of Ruffian) and his son Stuart Janney III breeding, and we love old traditional families that span several generations. Prior to Janney, this was a solid Wheatley Stable family that traces to Man O’ War and La Troienne. Sabercat’s dam also is inbred to major stamina influence Tom Rolfe, by Ribot.

SKY KINGDOM – Impressive allowance winner last time out. He is by Belmont winner Empire Maker, out of the Kingmambo mare Sky Beam, who is out of Weekend in Seattle, a full-sister to A.P. Indy and half-sister to Summer Squall. Third dam, Weekend Surprise, in addition to producing A.P. Indy, Summer Squall, and graded stakes winner Honor Grades, is a half-sister to Charming Lassie, the dam of champion older horse and Belmont winner Lemon Drop Kid. Sky Kingdom is inbred to two of our favorite inbreeding influences, In Reality and Buckpasser.

SPRING HILL FARM – With only a brilliant maiden victory to his credit, he has a lot of catching up to do, but also has a magnificent pedigree. He’s by Smart Strike, who sires champions in almost every category, whether at classic distances on dirt and grass or sprinting. His dam, Colonial Minstrel, is a multiple graded stakes winner by the great classic influence Pleasant Colony. His second dam, Minstrella, is a three-time group I winner in Ireland and England, who also produced Minidar, the dam of Jim Dandy Stakes winner A Little Warm. His third dam, Flight Dancer, produced, in addition to Minstrella, multiple stakes winner Misty Gallore and Misty Dancer, the granddam of Horse of the Year Saint Liam. His fourth dam, Courbette, is by Native Dancer, out of the great Gallorette.

STEPHANOATSEE – Runner-up in the Count Fleet Stakes. This son of A.P. Indy is a half-brother to last year’s Preakness winner Shackleford and to Alabama winner Lady Joanne. His dam, Oatsee, is a daughter of Unbridled, out of a Lear Fan mare. His third dam, Amo, is a half-sister to millionaires Tappiano and A P Jet. And his fourth dam, Taminette, is a full-sister to 2,000 Guineas winner and top sire Known Fact and a half-sister to Met Mile and United Nations winner Tentam and to Secrettame, dam of Gone West.